The Northamptonshire Local Economic Assessment March 2015

Transcription

1 The Northamptonshire Local Economic Assessment March P a g e

2 PURPOSE The Local Economic Assessment provides an overview of the local economy in Northamptonshire, and builds an evidence base to support the Strategic Economic Plan (SEP). This provides partners with a common understanding of the local economic conditions that are prevailing so objectives can be delivered in a way that is evidence led. - Northamptonshire is the place for growth, with unrivalled access to a substantial UK market and quick links to Europe. Literally, at the heart of business and infrastructure networks, Northamptonshire s prime location is not only a key factor in the development of the local economy, but also a catalyst in helping it to remain one of the fastest growing places in the UK, bolstered by a skilled and rapidly growing workforce. - An established base location for global brands (including Barclaycard, Avon, Carlsberg UK, Travis Perkins, Weetabix, Yusen Logistics, Cosworth, Mercedes-Benz, Church s and more) we are at the forefront of the UK s economic recovery; the collaborative approach of partners towards business innovation and inward investment, business support and funding, infrastructure, housing and skills are all testament to our business integrity and ambition for growth, taking the Northamptonshire businesses further, faster. - Northamptonshire has competitive advantage in a number of key sectors including High Performance Technologies (HPT), Food and Drink, Logistics and Cultural and Creative. - Northamptonshire has one of the fastest growing populations in the country, and as such needs to provide sufficient housing and jobs to meet this need. Northamptonshire s Strategic Economic Plan sets out an ambitious strategy to deliver accelerated economic growth and to meet the housing and employment needs of one of the fastest growing populations in the country. During the seven year plan period to 2021, a total of 37,000 new homes will be built and 32,500 jobs created; this will rise to 80,000 homes and 70,000 jobs by In 2013 Northamptonshire Enterprise Partnership (NEP) commissioned an assessment of the needs of the local economy to provide the underpinning evidence for the Strategic Economic Plan (SEP) and European Structural Investment Funds (ESIF) Strategy. This revised Local Economic Assessment provides a refresh to that evidence base and will have a key role in continuing to demonstrate a strategic, intelligence-led approach in mobilising the whole system to deliver sustainable growth. 2 P a g e

3 This local economic assessment is organised into four chapters which are consistent with the priorities of the SEP: 1. Business and Innovation 2. Employment and Skills 3. Housing 4. Infrastructure and Connectivity Each chapter also contains a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis. These are designed to be a structured planning method to evaluate each area of Northamptonshire s economy in an objective way. Each chapter also contains a key statistics page which outlines the headline figures for each subject area. Throughout this Local Economic Assessment the most recent data has been used as far as possible, to give an accurate and representative view of the economy. There is also a district level key statistics page at the end of this document. This document has been produced by Northamptonshire County Council s Business Intelligence and Performance Improvement (BIPI) department on behalf of Northamptonshire Enterprise Partnership (NEP). Please note that the vast majority of the data found in this document is available at which is also constantly being updated with new datasets and newer versions of existing datasets. Throughout this document, comparator Local Enterprise Partnerships are referred to. These are the four Local Enterprise Partnerships which are defined as the closest statistical comparators by Oxford Economics, based on employment and population. They are: Cumbria LEP, Gloucestershire LEP, Swindon and Wiltshire LEP and The Marches LEP. 3 P a g e

4 CONTENTS Chapter 1: Business & Innovation 1.1 Number and size of businesses in Northamptonshire 1.2 Activity of businesses in Northamptonshire 1.3 SWOT analysis Chapter 3: Housing 3.1 Current housing stock 3.2 House building in Northamptonshire 3.3 Affordability need and demand for housing in Northamptonshire 3.4 SWOT analysis Chapter 2: Employment & Skills 2.1 The working-age resident population 2.2 The in work resident population (incl. working poor) 2.3 The unemployed resident population (incl. hidden unemployment) 2.4 Skills and qualifications of Northamptonshire residents 2.5 Social mobility and opportunity for Northamptonshire residents 2.6 SWOT analysis Chapter 4: Infrastructure & Connectivity 4.1 Transport 4.2 Digital 4.3 Commercial property 4.4 Climate change 4.5 SWOT analysis 4 P a g e

5 KEY STATISTICS Comparison with respect to England value: Higher Similar Lower 5 P a g e Variable Northamptonshire Source Total GVA 14.82bn ONS 2013 Total population 706,600 people ONS 2013 Total employment 82.2% (of year olds) ONS annual population survey Dec 2014 Economic activity Index 97.8 (16th out of 39 LEPs) UK Competitiveness Index Claimant count rate 1.8 Feb 2015 Average weekly earnings ONS, ASHE 2014 Business births rate 14.60% ONS 2013 Business survival rates 9.00% ONS 2013 Micro Businesses 88.7% ONS year (born 2008) 94% ONS years (born 2008) 76.20% ONS years (born 2008) 59.40% ONS years (born 2008) 50.50% ONS years (born 2008) 43.20% ONS 2012 No qualifications 10.7% ONS annual population survey Sept 2014 NVQ % ONS annual population survey Sept 2014 NVQ % ONS annual population survey Sept 2014 NVQ % ONS annual population survey Sept 2014 NVQ % ONS annual population survey Sept 2014 Average house price 150,584 Land Registry Jan 2015 Housing affordability ratio 6.43 ONS 2013 Q3 Carbon emissions 5,614.9 RICARDO-AEA 2012 Access to Super Fast Broadband 75% OFCOM July 2014

6 Executive Summary: Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats Strengths Business and Innovation Northamptonshire has a growing economy, with a steady increase in the number of active enterprises between 2009 and There has also been an above the national average increase in the number of business births in the same period. This is in tandem with an increase (above national average) of micro-businesses between March 2013 and March 2014, which is strongly linked with an increase in self employment between September 2012 and September Northamptonshire has experienced recovering rates of business survival from 2008 onwards which is above the national average. Two priority sectors: food and drink and high performance technologies are growing at well above the national averages. Northamptonshire has a good level of competitiveness measured by the UK Competitiveness Index (16 th place out of 39 LEPs). Employment and Skills A significant strength in terms of employment and skills is that Job Seekers Allowance claimants in Northamptonshire have been consistently reduced. In the county there are also a low percentage of children (aged 0-15) in low income and workless households compared to the national average indicating good social mobility. Another employment based strength is that there is a high percentage of working age population (16-64 year olds) relative to the national average. The high levels of employment and low levels of JSA claimants illustrates that there are many job opportunities for Northamptonshire residents. Housing Building houses is key to the strength of the housing market and the house building market in Northamptonshire compares well to statistical comparators in terms of dwellings started and completed. Equally important to the housing market are house prices, and house prices are rising steadily in Northamptonshire: currently at 6.8% (higher than the national average of 6.4%). The fact that more houses are being built compared to other LEP s and that house prices are rising by more than the England average means that Northamptonshire has a healthy housing market. Infrastructure and Connectivity Northamptonshire is characterised by good transport connectivity: with very good road links to the M1 and twice the national average percentage of people within a 15 minute drive of a major road junction. There is also good accessibility to the M6, A14, A43, A6, M40 and A1 road links as well as good rail links to London and Birmingham. Northamptonshire has good levels of digital connectivity, with a higher than average internet usage in the county and availability of superfast broadband and next generation access which is similar to the national averages. 6 P a g e

7 Weaknesses Business and Innovation In Northamptonshire there are a significantly higher proportion of lower paid jobs compared to the national average. Similarly there are a lower proportion of jobs in knowledge intensive industries which are characterised by higher skill requirements and pay levels. There is also a lower than average labour productivity (GVA) which limits economic growth. There has been no growth in the number of medium sized enterprises between 2010 and 2014 despite there being a national increase in the same period. Employment and Skills Northamptonshire s skills profile for NVQ1, NVQ2, NVQ3 and NVQ4 and above is below the national averages. There are also less people in Northamptonshire with at least a degree level qualification. In Northamptonshire there are the highest levels of unemployment in the year old age group. There are also high levels of people in the county wit h no qualifications compared to England. There also exists an attainment gap for free school meals children in Northamptonshire, which is behind the England average at both KS2 and KS4 Housing The economic recession has impacted significantly on the realisation of housing targets as they are reliant on large numbers of houses being built by the private sector. The difference between the median and mean house price in the county is large, illustrating expensive housing brings up the mean. Due to increases in house prices being larger than increases in earnings, housing in Northamptonshire is becoming less affordable. This is amplified by rent and mortgage repayments also increasing in the county. Infrastructure and Connectivity There is a high reliance on the car for travelling to work, not surprising given the rural nature of the county, and above average distances travelled to work, but consequently there are significantly lower than the (national) average take-up of more sustainable travel options (public transport, walking and cycling). Availability and take-up of commercial property is also a weakness in Northamptonshire because there is lower availability (supply) and take-up (demand) of office space and take-up of industrial/distribution space compared with competing locations. Also, the majority of stock in Northamptonshire is second hand which may be impacting on attractiveness in terms of suitability and quality and therefore take-up (demand). 7 P a g e

8 Opportunities Business and Innovation The growing levels of micro-businesses in Northamptonshire have the potential to alleviate unemployment and increase entrepreneurialism. Evidence suggests that the scope for growth of micro-businesses could be greatest in the professional, scientific and technical services, business administration and support services, transport and storage and information and communication. Industries forecasted to contribute the most job creation (volume) over the next ten years are: wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, business admin and support services and professional, scientific and technical services. There also exists significant opportunities in terms of exporting activity. Employment and Skills The percentage of people in the county employed in professional occupations is increasing by more than any other group. There is potential to up skill the Northamptonshire population to continue to change the jobs market in the county. Targeting jobs and employment for year olds is a priority as this group is the largest proportion of unemployment and represents the future workforce. Retaining graduates through attractive well paid and highly skilled jobs as well as attracting them to University here is also an opportunity. There is also potential for the use of Pupil Premium funding to increase school readiness, and at KS2 and KS4 in early years settings and throughout schools. Housing To prevent house prices increasing by more than earnings more houses need to be built. Ambitious house building targets are necessary to achieve this, which are reflected in the core strategies for Northamptonshire. Infrastructure and Connectivity Commercial property development represents an opportunity for Northamptonshire. There is a Designated Enterprise Zone - one of only 24 in the country offering greater incentives to attract businesses. Northamptonshire also has a historic track record of public sector intervention to overcome barriers to development and development plans. Northamptonshire has good availability of development land and competitive land values. Transport connectivity is a big opportunity for the county there is significant potential to compete on the basis of relative ease of travel, based on indications of lower then average levels of congestion, particularly with large cities where congestion levels have led to congestion charging schemes being put in place. Digital connectivity is a another large opportunity for the county there is a commitment to improving Next Generation Access and Superfast Broadband availability and track record to date in rolling out the Superfast Northamptonshire programme including a proactive campaign to encourage take-up, coupled with good Internet usage rates in the county, provides a solid foundation for reaping the economic benefits of faster Internet speeds. 8 P a g e

9 Threats Business and Innovation The GVA growth forecasts rely significantly on the productivity of the labour force in Northamptonshire increasing significantly. Lower than average labour productivity in North and West Northamptonshire pose a risk to future growth. Also the current opportunities in the county relating to type of jobs available and earnings potential poses a threat to future growth in terms of the potential for underemployment and wasted talent of the current and next generation workforce as well as skills leakage. Economic growth is very reliant on many external factors which can threaten it; these can transcend even national boundaries even in the most robust global economies. Employment and Skills There is a net migration of year olds in Northamptonshire which is a significant threat to the local jobs market. In Northamptonshire (despite an annual decrease) more recently Job Seekers Allowance claimants have been increasing (since December 2014). There is a deceasing working age population in the county relative to the entire population. This is resulting in an ageing population demographic with a higher dependency ratio. There is also a higher than (national and East Midlands) average job density in Northamptonshire (the number of jobs per resident). Housing In Wellingborough, Kettering, East Northamptonshire, Daventry and Northampton the planned level of house building is more than double the 2012/13 rate in 2015/16 (it is nearly double in Corby). There is a significant threat if these house building targets are not realised, because if demand continues to increase as predicted, then housing becomes less affordable. House prices have been consistently rising in the county, and whilst this can be seen as a strength on the one hand, it does also mean that housing becomes less affordable. This can negatively impact on first time buyers who are trying to get onto the property ladder. Infrastructure and Connectivity Transport congestion and modal shift are a threat to Northamptonshire. Congestion levels increasing impacts on the attractiveness of the county to businesses and well as employees who commute. Modal shift from cars towards sustainable transport methods represents a challenge for the county as there is a higher than the national average reliance on cars for transport and lower than the national average take up of sustainable travel options. Another threat comes in the form of commercial property and development constraints. The viability of development schemes may be limited given the low value of offices in the market and returns from these investments. Equally the dominance of competitors such as Milton Keynes in the office market constrains the ability of Northamptonshire to attract developers. Finite logistics land supply may also limit Northamptonshire s potential future growth of this priority sector. The digital connectivity competitiveness of Northamptonshire relative to other surrounding areas may also be a threat to economic growth and attracting new businesses to the area. Infrastructure constraints on sustainable urban extensions (SUE s) is also a threat and potential delay to realisation of housing targets. 9 P a g e

10 Contents Business & Innovation CHAPTER 1: Business & Innovation 1.1 Number and size of businesses This section provides a stock take of the size and change within the business population in Northamptonshire in terms of number of jobs, active enterprises, business births, deaths, survival rate, churn, proportion of micro, small, medium and large businesses, contribution of businesses to the economy (GVA), earnings by workplace Active enterprises Enterprise births and death Churn rate Survival rate Proportion of SMEs and large enterprises Workplace employment Contribution of Northamptonshire businesses to the economy (GVA) Earnings by workplace Workplace employment by occupation Environmental impact 1.3 SWOT Analysis As a conclusion to the Business and Innovation Chapter, this section provides a summary of the information contained within this chapter in the form of a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis. 1.2 Activity of businesses This section offers an insight into what businesses in Northamptonshire do; mainly in terms of the industry sectors they operate in alongside a scorecard to highlight their importance to the local economy across a number of indicators. An insight into the competitiveness of Northamptonshire-based businesses is also provided in terms of productivity, exporting, and research and innovation Workplace employment by Broad Industrial Group Contribution of Broad Industrial Groups to the economy (GVA) Proportion of SMEs and large enterprises by Broad Industrial Group Broad Industrial Group scorecard Priority industry sectors in Northamptonshire Cultural & Creative Industries Food & Drink High Performance Technologies Logistics Competitiveness Knowledge Intensive Services Productivity Exporting Research and Innovation 10 P a g e

11 Key Statistics Business & Innovation Productivity GVA per hour worked, West Northamptonshire ( ) 2012 GVA per hour worked, North Northamptonshire ( ) 2012 Exporting Export-intensive industries workplace employment 6, % 2013 Share of employees in foreign-owned enterprises % 2011 Research & Innovation 2013 Gross Value Added (GVA) 14.82bn Active enterprises 28,825 Workplace employment 322,200 Source: ONS Patent applications per 100,000 residents Workplace employment in Knowledge Intensive Services % 2013 R&D Tax Credit claims by SMEs and SME subcontractors by 1,000 active enterprises Rate of business births 4, % 2013 Rate of business deaths 2, % 2013 % new businesses surviving year 1 (born in 2008) 2, % 2008 % new businesses surviving year 2 (born in 2008) 2, % 2009 % new businesses surviving year 3 (born in 2008) 1, % 2010 % new businesses surviving year 4 (born in 2008) 1, % 2011 % new businesses surviving year 5 (born in 2008) 1, % 2012 % Micro businesses (employment of 0-9) 24, % 2014 % Small businesses (employment of 10-49) 2, % 2014 % Medium-sized businesses (employment of ) % 2014 % Large businesses (employment of 250+) % 2014 Workplace earnings (weekly, full-time) Resident earnings (weekly, full time) Jul-13 to Workplace employment in 'higher level' occupations 125, % Jun-14 Comparison with respect to England value: Better Similar Worse 11 P a g e

12 27,500 27,655 27,415 27,740 28,825 NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT Number and size of businesses Active enterprises In 2013 there were 28,825 active enterprises*, 3.9% (+1,085) more than in The largest proportion of the county s active enterprises are in Northampton (27.7%) and the smallest in Corby (6.1%). All the county s districts and boroughs saw an increase in the 30,000 25,000 20,000 Number of active enterprises in Northamptonshire 2009 to 2013 (Source: ONS, Business Demography) 1.2% ave. annual increase number of active enterprises between 2012 and The number of active enterprises has increased steadily since 2009, with the exception of 2011 when there was a slight dip in numbers (-0.9%). This is consistent with the national trend and economic conditions. Between 2009 and 2013 there has been an average annual 1.2% increase in the number of active enterprises (1,325 more enterprises in 2013 compared with 2009). There was an average annual increase between 2009 and 2013 across all the county s districts and boroughs, although small in East Northamptonshire (0.1%) and Wellingborough (0.3%), with the exception of Daventry (-0.1%) Enterprise births and deaths In 2013 there were 4,195 business births and 2,600 business deaths (net growth of 1,595 businesses). Whilst the number of business births has increased over the last 5 years (11.4% average annual increase), the number of business deaths has decreased (4.7% average annual decrease), indicating improved conditions within the local economy. The business birth rate in 2013 was 14.6%, which is fairly consistent with the England (14.4%) and East Midlands (13.7%) averages, but higher than all comparator LEPs (ranging from 11.0% to 12.9%). The rate varies across the county with a high of 18.1% in Northampton and a low of 11.8% in South Northamptonshire (see below). The number of business births increased in the county by 35.5% in 2013 compared with 2012 levels; slightly higher than the 28.7% England and 32.5% East Midlands averages. The number of business births has increased year-on-year (therefore improved) over the 5 years from 2009 to 2013, as has the rate of increase. For example, the percentage increase in business births was just 2.2% between 2009 and P a g e

13 7.9% 7.8% 9.5% 9.6% 10.0% 8.4% 8.5% 9.3% 2,720 3,155 2,780 2,880 2,895 2,635 3,095 2,760 2,600 4,195 NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT ,000 4,000 3,000 Number of enterprise births and deaths in Northamptonshire 2009 to 2013 (Source: ONS)) Births of new enterprises Linear (Births of new enterprises) Deaths of enterprises Linear (Deaths of enterprises) Improved economic conditions and the spike in self-employment between September 2012 and September 2013 are likely to have contributed to the large percentage increase in the number of business births between 2012 and Over the 5 years from 2009 to 2013, the average annual increase in the number of business births was 11.4%; slightly higher than the 10.2% England and 10.4% East Midlands averages. It is possible to get some indication of business change during 2014 by looking at Companies House data (source: Bureau van Dijk, FAME database). Please note that the data comprises a different, albeit overlapping, group of businesses, but does show an increase in the number of companies (+269) registering with Companies House in the 12 months to end of September 2014 compared with 1 year earlier. 2,000 1,000 Enterprise birth and death rates in 2013 (Source: ONS) The business death rate in 2014 was 9.0%; similar to the East Midlands average of 9.3% and within the range of the comparator LEPs (ranging from 8.4% to 9.2%), but lower (and therefore better) than the England average of 9.8%. This varies across the county with a high of 10.0% in Northampton (consistent with having the highest business birth rate) and a low of 7.8% in Daventry (consistent with having one of the lowest enterprise birth rates). The average annual percentage change in the number of business deaths from 2009 to 2013 was - 4.7% compared with -4.1% England and -5.2% East Midlands averages. This is better than all the comparator LEPs, ranging from 1.2% to 4.2%. Companies House data (source: Bureau van Dijk, FAME database) indicates an increase in the number of companies going into liquidation in the 12 months to the end of September 2014 compared to 1 year earlier (+24 companies). Liquidation is a specific kind of business death (which is involuntary). This is why it is possible for liquidation rates to be rising at the same time as business deaths are going down. 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 17.3% 11.9% 13.0% 14.4% 18.1% 11.8% 13.6% 13.7% Enterprise birth rate in 2013 Enterprise death rate in 2013 England enterprise birth rate: 14.4% England enterprise death rate: 9.8% 13 P a g e

14 NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT Churn rate Summing the business birth and death rates provides the churn rate of employer enterprises, which is used by the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) as an indicator of entrepreneurialism (OECD, Entrepreneurship at a glance 2014 ). The churn rate indicates how frequently new firms are created and how often existing enterprises close down [...and] reflects an [area s] degree of creative destruction (new companies outcompeting and replacing old ones). Entrepreneurship and entrepreneurs are important sources of innovation, growth and employment (OECD). The churn rate in the county in 2013 was broadly consistent with the England and East Midlands averages (23.6% compared with 24.2% England and 23.0% East Midlands averages) Survival rates Over the 5 years worth of data from 2008 to 2012 survival rates have fluctuated as have economic conditions. Businesses starting up in Northamptonshire in the year in which the UK moved into technical recession during the most recent economic downturn - have had lower survival rates over their first 5 years than businesses starting up in the previous two years. However, this is consistent with the national picture. Survival rates of businesses starting in Northamptonshire in 2008 are higher than the England average over the full 5 years, but broadly in line with the East Midlands averages. 1 and 2 year survival rates for businesses starting in 2009 and 2010 dip further (to a low of 88.1% in year 1 and 72.8% in years 2 for businesses born in 2010). This is broadly consistent with the England and East Midlands averages. Survival rates appear to recover slightly for businesses starting in 2011 (based on survival rates in year 1 and 2 only as data for subsequent years is not yet available) with rates of 94.3% and 77.2% respectively. However the 1 year survival rate for businesses starting in 2012 reduced to 92.4%. In contrast, the year 1 survival rate for businesses starting in 2006 was 97.0% Survival rates (%) of newly born enterprises born in 2008 (Source: ONS) 1 Year Year Year Year Year 2012 Northamptonshire England East Midlands About the data Active enterprises, birth, deaths and survival rates (ONS Business Demography publication) *The data is published annually in November each year and counts businesses on the Government s Inter-departmental Business Register who were active at any point during the reference year (had either turnover or employment). It is made up of all VAT and/or PAYE registered employers, excluding central government and local authorities. A business birth is identified as a business that was present in the reference year, but did not exist in the two previous years. A business death is defined as a business that was on the active file two years earlier but neither in the reference year nor the year before. 14 P a g e

15 East Midlands England Northants NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT Proportion of SMEs and large enterprises % Enterprises by employment size band in March 2014 (Source: ONS) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Micro (0-9) Small (10-49) Medium (50-249) Large (>250) Northants 88.7% 9.2% 1.7% 0.4% England 88.4% 9.5% 1.7% 0.4% East Midlands 87.7% 10.2% 1.8% 0.4% In March 2014 the majority of enterprises (public and private, VAT and/or PAYE registered) in the county were micro businesses (88.7%) (employment of 0 to 9 people). The vast majority of enterprises have an employment of less than 5 people (77.0%). This is consistent with the England and East Midlands averages, with minor changes in overall proportions over the last 5 years. In the mid-sized (as opposed to medium-sized) category, it is separately estimated by the ONS that 0.4% of private sector businesses (110) in the county meet the turnover criteria, accounting for 29.8% of the county s employment. This compares to a 0.5% LEP average in terms of number of businesses and 21% of employment. Mid-sized cuts across both the medium-sized and large enterprise categories. Midsized businesses, although a relatively small group, make a sizeable contribution to UK turnover and are significant in terms of their growth potential (Understanding mid-sized businesses, HMRC, 2014). In terms of numbers of companies within each employment size band, Northamptonshire has seen the biggest estimated average annual increase from 2010 to 2014 in large enterprises (employment of 250+) (also higher than the England and regional averages). Although the proportion of large businesses is small (0.4%), the relative impact is large. For example, in Northampton large businesses accounted for 49.1% of employment in 2013 (Source: ONS, IDBR). Increases in numbers are also evident for small enterprises (employment of 10 to 49) in the county and, to a lesser extent, micro businesses (employment of 0-9). However, it is interesting to note that between 2013 and 2014 there was a 5.8% increase in the number of micro businesses; higher than the 5.0% England and 4.5% East Midlands averages. There was a spike in self-employment in the county between September 2012 and September 2013, well above the national average, which is likely to have contributed to the above-average increase in micro-businesses between March 2013 and March Average annual %age change in the number of enterprises within each employment size band from 2010 and 2014 (Source: ONS) Micro (0 to 9) Small (10 to 49) Medium-sized (50 to 249) Large (250+) Micro (0 to 9) Small (10 to 49) Medium-sized (50 to 249) Large (250+) Micro (0 to 9) Small (10 to 49) Medium-sized (50 to 249) Large (250+) -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% -0.3% 1.9% 2.2% 1.3% 1.3% 2.4% 1.9% In contrast to the national picture, there was been a slight decrease in medium-sized enterprises (employment of 50 to 249) between 2010 and In England, the number of medium-sized enterprises increased over the same period (3.3% average annual increase), and in the East Midlands (1.9%). 3.4% 2.9% 3.3% 3.1% 4.1% 15 P a g e

16 1.1.6 Workplace employment Workplace employment in Northamptonshire in 2013 (Source: ONS, BRES) S. Northants 9.5% 30,500 jobs Corby 9.4% 30,300 jobs W'boro 10.1% 32,400 jobs Daventry 11.3% 36,500 jobs E. Northants 8.3% 26,700 Kettering 12.5% 40,300 jobs Northants 322,200 jobs N'ton 39.0% 125,500 jobs In 2013 there were an estimated 322,200 jobs (workplace employment) in Northamptonshire within VAT registered businesses. The largest share of workplace employment (39.0%) was in Northampton, which had the greatest jobs density in the county in 2012 (1.0 indicates at least one job for every resident of working age). There was an estimated increase in workplace employment between 2012 and 2013 of approximately 1.00% (3,200 jobs), broadly in line the East Midlands average (+0.94%), although lower than the England average (+1.42%). The increase broadly corresponds with a decrease in the number of Job Seekers Allowance claimants between the two survey dates (-2,770). Please note that the Business Register and Employment Survey results are pointin-time snapshots and are not designed to be used as time series figures, however do provide a useful indication of change and it is acknowledged that they are used in this way. Workplace employment (number) in Northamptonshire (Source: ONS) 323, , , , , Bearing this in mind, the estimated average annual percentage change in workplace employment between 2009 and 2013 was 0.09% suggesting little overall change, on average, during this period, compared to an estimated 0.50% increase in England. Regardless of the scenario, Oxford Economics forecast (2013) an increase in levels of employment (defined by Oxford Economics as employees jobs + self-employed jobs) in Northamptonshire between 2014 and 2023 of 34,000 people (jobs), which is a 9% increase over the 10 year period and 1.0% average annual growth. This is based on a baseline scenario, which assumes no policy intervention and therefore could potentially be higher. (Source: Oxford Economics; data provided for the Northamptonshire Local Economic Assessment, January 2014). Northamptonshire businesses draw their employment from across the county and beyond. In 2011, approximately 13.6% of people working in the county did not live in the county (i.e. commuted in to work). This accounts for the differences in earnings and occupations levels of the workplace population versus the resident population. The variance across the county is large; ranging from just 8.8% commuting into Kettering to 25.6% in Daventry. There will be a number of reasons for, including the availability and type of jobs and skill requirements. (Source: ONS). 16 P a g e

17 1.1.7 Contribution of Northamptonshire businesses to the economy (GVA) Gross Value Added (GVA) measures the contribution to the economy of each individual producer, industry or sector in the United Kingdom in terms of the value generated (ONS). GVA data can be used to measure the value of a local economy and change, indicating growth or decline. Northamptonshire total workplace based GVA ( ) (Source: ONS) 13.36bn 14.27bn 14.29bn 14.33bn 14.82bn Total workplace based GVA by LEP in 2013 with % change from 2012 (Source: ONS) Swindon and Wiltshire 16.11bn 2.4% Northamptonshire 14.82bn 3.4% Gloucestershire 14.09bn 3.1% The Marches 12.32bn 0.4% Cumbria 9.67bn 2.1% In 2013, total workplace based GVA in Northamptonshire was estimated at billion (ONS); 3.4% higher than in 2012 and averaging 2.6% growth per year from 2009 to Between 2009 and 2010, Northamptonshire s GVA growth rate (6.8%) was well above the national (England and UK) and regional averages (see opposite). However, over the 5 years from 2009 to 2013 due to below average growth between 2010 and 2012 Northamptonshire s average annual GVA growth rate at 2.6% was lower than the England (3.4%), UK (3.2%) and East Midlands (3.3%) averages. Northamptonshire sat in second place amongst its comparator LEPs in 2013 in terms of total workplace based GVA and experienced higher GVA growth between 2012 and 2013 than all four comparators. However, please note that the county drops to forth place (out of the five) when comparing the 5- year average annual % increase from 2009 to Annual % change in total workplace based GVA (Source: ONS) Northamptonshire East Midlands UNITED KINGDOM England 2009 to to to to yr ave (2009 to 2013) 10-yr ave (2004 to 2013) 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 0.2% 0.2% 10-yr ave 5-yr ave (2004 to (2009 to 2013) 2013) 2.6% 2012 to % 3.2% 2011 to to % 2009 to 2010 Northamptonshire 3.2% 2.6% 3.4% 0.2% 0.2% 6.8% East Midlands 3.4% 3.3% 2.7% 1.6% 3.5% 5.6% UNITED KINGDOM 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% 2.4% 2.9% 4.1% England 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 2.9% 2.8% 4.6% 17 P a g e

18 Total LEP workplace based GVA as a proportion (%) of England's GVA (Source: ONS) 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% Swindon and Wiltshire 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% Northamptonshire 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% Gloucestershire 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% The Marches 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% Cumbria 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.8% 0.7% Swindon and Wiltshire Northamptonshire Gloucestershire The Marches Cumbria Northamptonshire s contribution to national (England) GVA was 1.1% in 2013, which has been fairly consistent across the 5 years from 2009 to 2013, albeit 0.1% lower in 2012 and 2013 compared to previous years. Northamptonshire sits in joint second place amongst its comparator LEPs in terms of its contributions to national (England) GVA, although the gap between the five LEPs is fairly small. In 2013, Oxford Economics forecasted continued GVA growth in Northamptonshire over the next 10 years at an average rate of 4.4% per year between 2014 and 2023 compared to a 2.7% average annual rate of growth for the East Midlands. This is based on a baseline scenario, which assumes no policy intervention, whereby growth is driven by a combination of strong employment growth and productivity growth, which could be driven by improvements in skills, IT upgrades, capital investment and increased competition (Northamptonshire Local Economic Assessment, Oxford Economics, January 2014). However, if export and investment performance at a UK level improved and austerity measures eased (subsequently increasing consumer and business confidence) Oxford Economics estimates that the county s GVA could increase to 23.63bn by This suggests that productivity of the labour force in Northamptonshire will improve significantly over the forecast period (Northamptonshire Local Economic Assessment, Oxford Economics, January 2014). However, the lower base relatively flat growth scenario puts GVA at 18.96bn in GVA forecast 2023 Lower scenario 18.96bn Baseline scenario 22.06bn Upper scenario (Oxford Economics, 2014) 23.63bn m Northamptonshire total workplace based GVA forecast (baseline) (Source: Oxford Economics, 2013) 15.44bn 16.01bn 16.66bn 17.33bn 18.03bn 18.78bn 19.54bn 20.34bn 21.18bn 22.06bn P a g e

19 1.1.8 Earnings by workplace Pay by Northamptonshire workplaces is below the national and regional average. In 2014 (a specific date in April) the estimated median, gross weekly earnings of full-time workers in Northamptonshire workplaces was This sits below both the England ( ) and East Midlands ( ) averages and, compared to the local authority areas that make up the LEP comparators, sits in 6 th place out of 8 (i.e. in bottom three). Six out of the seven county districts and boroughs are below the England average ranging from a low of in Wellingborough workplaces to a high of in South Northamptonshire. Over the last four years (2011 to 2014), the average annual percentage change in the median, gross weekly earnings of full-time workers in Northamptonshire workplaces has been 0.8% (compared to 1.3% England and 1.4% East Midlands averages), not taking into account the rate of inflation. Most recently, between 2013 and 2014, it is estimated that pay by Northamptonshire workplaces actually reduced by 3.1%, whereas it increased slightly in England (0.6%) the East Midlands (0.6%) Workplace employment by occupation There are a number of factors which may contribute to lower earnings levels in Northamptonshire workplaces in additional to regional pay differences. For example, it is estimated (ONS, APS) that there is a lower proportion of workplace employment in higher level (and higher paid) occupations and higher proportion in lower level (and lower paid) in Northamptonshire than the England averages (see opposite). Proportion of workplace employment by occupation level - Jul 2013 to June 2014 (SOC2010) (Source: ONS, APS) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Northamptonshire England East Midlands 38.7% 45.1% 39.4% 24.1% 21.2% 22.0% 15.7% 16.8% 16.9% 21.4% 16.9% 21.6% The proportion of workplace employment in higher level (Level 4) occupations was estimated at 38.7% compared with 45.1% in England and the proportion in lower level (Level 1) occupations at 21.4% in the county compared to 16.9% England average. However, the percentages for the county are broadly in line with the East Midlands averages, but less favourable than three out of the four comparator LEPs. Cumbria LEP Gloucestershire LEP Swindon and Wiltshire LEP The Marches LEP 36.3% 45.1% 45.3% 39.6% 27.8% 22.4% 21.7% 22.1% 16.5% 17.3% 15.5% 18.9% 19.4% 15.1% 17.5% 19.5% Level 4 Level 3 Level 2 Level 1 19 P a g e

20 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2015 More detail on the number and proportion of workplace employment by occupation level is provided opposite. This shows that the greatest proportion of workplace employment in the county is estimated to be in professional occupations (a Level 4 occupation) followed by elementary occupations (a Level 1 occupation). However, please note the margin of error within this data (applicable to both bar charts) indicated by the black lines in the bar chart opposite. Linked to occupation levels, the county also has a larger private sector and smaller public sector than the national average in terms of Number and proportion of workplace employment in Northamptonshire by occupation level - Jul 2013 to June 2014 (SOC2010) (Source: ONS, APS) 1 Managers, Directors and Senior Officials 2 Professional 3 Associate Prof & Tech 4 Administrative and Secretarial 5 Skilled Trades 6 Caring, Leisure and Other Services 7 Sales and Customer Service 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 34,300 (10.6%) 54,500 (16.9%) 36,200 (11.2%) 37,300 (11.6%) 40,600 (12.6%) 28,500 (8.8%) 22,100 (6.8%) employment (see workplace employment section below) and earnings for private sector employees are lower than for public sector employees due to the different composition of the workforce (ONS). Many of the lowest 8 Process, Plant and Machine Operatives 9 Elementary 24,800 (7.7%) 44,400 (13.8%) paid occupations, such as bar and restaurant staff, hairdressers, elementary sales occupations and cashiers, exist primarily in the private sector, while there are a larger proportion of graduate-level and professional occupations in the public sector (ONS, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, 2014 Provisional Results Statistical Bulletin). In addition, the county has a higher volume of employment in industries with lower wage levels and a lower proportion in industries with higher wage levels than the England average Environmental impact In % of the county s CO2 emissions were produced by Industry and Commerce compared to 40.9% East Midlands average and 41.5% England average, which could be due to a number of factors including the proportion of Energy Intensive Industries (EIIs). 20 P a g e

21 1.2 Activity of businesses Workplace employment by Broad Industrial Group In 2013, the largest number of jobs (workplace employment) in the county was found in Manufacturing (12.4%), followed by Health (11.7%) and Education (9.2%). Whilst the proportion of workplace employment in Health (11.7%) was slightly lower in the county in 2013 than the England (12.8%), East Midlands (12.6%) and all comparator LEP averages (ranging from 12.2 to 14.9%), Education employment was broadly similar. The proportion of Manufacturing employment (12.4%) was slightly lower than the East Midlands average (13.0%), and lower than all comparator LEPs bar one (ranging from 9.4% to 16.4%), but higher than the England average (8.2%). However, there was a much higher proportion of employment in Transport & Storage in the county (8.1%) in 2013 than the England (4.5%), East Midlands (5.1%) and all comparator LEP averages (ranging from 2.9% to 4.4%). This was also the case for the proportion of Wholesale employment in the county (7.3%) compared to the England (4.2%), East Midlands (4.9%) and comparator LEP averages (2.9% to 5.0%). The proportion of employment within the public sector remained lower in Northamptonshire in 2013 at 15.1% than the England (18.1%) and East Midlands averages (18.0%). Private sector employment was 84.9% in the county compared to 81.9% England average and 82.0 East Midlands average. Compared with 2009 there was a higher number and proportion of public sector employment in the county in 2013, but lower than in 2010 and Despite a large decrease in employment in Public admin & defence between 2009 and 2013 as reported below, it appears that losses have been off-set to a certain degree by increases in Health and Education sectors. In the recent economic and political climate, and associated impact on public sector budgets, areas with a lower reliance on public sector employment, and therefore a more private sector orientated economy, are considered more resilient (Oxford Economics). Number and proportion of workplace employment by Broad Industrial Group in Northamptonshire in 2013 (Source: ONS, BRES) Manufacturing (C) 40,000 (12.4%) Health (Q) 37,700 (11.7%) Education (P) 29,600 (9.2%) Retail (Part G) 28,400 (8.8%) Business admin & support services (N) 27,800 (8.6%) Transport & storage (inc postal) (H) 26,100 (8.1%) Wholesale (Part G) 23,500 (7.3%) Professional, scientific & technical (M) 20,100 (6.3%) Accommodation & food services (I) 18,100 (5.6%) Arts, entertainment, recreation & other (R,S,T & U) 15,200 (4.7%) Construction (F) 11,400 (3.5%) Public admin & defence (O) 10,600 (3.3%) Financial & insurance (K) 9, %) Information & communication (J) 8,300 (2.6%) Motor trades (Part G) 7,800 (2.4%) Property (L) 4,300 (1.3%) Mining, quarrying & utilities (B,D and E) 3,600 (1.1%) Agriculture, forestry & fishing (A) 200 (0.1%) Total 322,200 (100%) Higher proportion of employment than England and East Midlands averages (>0.5%) Lower proportion of employment than England and East Midlands averages (>0.5%) 21 P a g e

22 In 2013 an estimated 69.5% employees in Northamptonshire businesses were working full-time compared to 30.5% working part-time. This is broadly the same as in 2009 and England and East Midlands averages. However there have been changes in the proportion of full and part-time working within different industry sectors in Northamptonshire. Most notably, this includes Transport & storage (shift of 9.2% from part-time to full-time employees), Public Admin and defence (shift of 8.6% from full-time to part-time employees), and Information & communication (shift of 7.4% from part-time to full-time employees). This indicates change in capacity within an industry sector and is reflective of changes in employment numbers (i.e. increases in Transport & storage and Information & communication and decreases in Public admin & defence). Employment change (see opposite): The Business Register and Employment Survey results are point-in-time snapshots and are not designed to be used as time series figures however do provide a useful indication of change and it is acknowledged that they are used in this way. Bearing this in mind, Health and Education saw the highest average annual percentage increases in workplace employment in the county between 2009 and 2013 (7.4% and 3.3% respectively); higher than both the England (Educ. 1.0%, Health 1.9%) and East Midlands (Educ. 3.5%, Health 1.4%) averages. Information and Communication industries experienced the third highest average annual percentage increase (3.1%); broadly in line with the East Midlands average (3.1%), but greater than the England average (2.0%). Also noteworthy is that Transport & storage experienced a greater average annual percentage increase from 2009 to 2013 than the England and East Midlands averages. Manufacturing employment had the highest volume of jobs in 2013, but workplace employment decreased by an average of -0.9% per year between 2009 and 2013, in line with the national trend (-0.9% in England). The industrial groups which saw the greatest decreases in workplace employment between 2009 and 2013 were Public admin & defence and Construction. Also noteworthy is that Professional, scientific and technical activities experienced a greater percentage decrease than both the England and East Midlands averages (-1.3% in Northamptonshire compared with +2.75% in England and +0.53% in the East Midlands), as did Agriculture, forestry & fishing (-3.8% in Northamptonshire compared with -1.4% in England and -1.2% in the East Midlands). Average annual percentage change in workplace employment by Broad Industrial Group in Northamptonshire, 2009 to 2013 (Source: ONS, BRES) 7.4% Education (P) 3.3% Health (Q) 3.1% Information & communication (J) 3.0% Mining, quarrying & utilities (B,D and E) 2.0% Accommodation & food services (I) 1.8% Transport & storage (inc postal) (H) 1.2% Motor trades (Part G) 0.4% Financial & insurance (K) 0.1% Wholesale (Part G) -0.9% Manufacturing (C) -1.2% Retail (Part G) -1.3% Professional, scientific & technical (M) -1.3% Arts, entertainment, recreation & other (R,S,T & U) -2.6% Business admin & support services (N) -3.8% Agriculture, forestry & fishing (A) -4.4% Property (L) -8.7% Construction (F) -8.8% Public admin & defence (O) -0.1% Total Increase greater than England and East Midlands averages (>0.5%) Decrease greater than England and East Midlands averages (>0.5%) 22 P a g e

23 Forecasted average annual % employment change in Northamptonshire between 2014 and 2023 by Broad Industrial Group (Source: Oxford Economics) -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% Professional, scientific & technical (M) Property (L) Arts, entertainment, recreation & other services (R,S,T and U) Business administration & support services (N) Construction (F) Transport & storage (inc postal) (H) Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and Accommodation & food services (I) Information & communication (J) Health (Q) Financial & insurance (K) Education (P) Agriculture, forestry & fishing (A) Public administration & defence (O) Manufacturing (C) Mining, quarrying & utilities (B,D and E) -0.2% -0.6% -0.6% -1.0% -7.9% 0.5% 0.4% 1.0% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% 2.4% Oxford Economics forecasts suggest that in Northamptonshire Professional, scientific and technical services will experience the greatest percentage increase in employment between 2014 and 2023 (2.4% average annual percentage increase or 5,500 jobs in total over the 10 years), followed by Property (2.0% or 800 jobs), Arts, entertainment, recreation and other services (1.8% or 4,000 jobs) and Business admin and support services (1.8% or 7,300). In the county, the highest volume of jobs over the 10 years from 2014 to 2023 are forecasted (Oxford Economics) to be created in Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (8,600 jobs or 1.3% average annual increase), followed by Business admin and support services (as above) and Professional, scientific and technical services (as above). In Northamptonshire, Education, Agriculture, forestry and fishing, Public admin and defence, Manufacturing and Mining, quarrying and utilities sectors are forecasted to reduce in employment size on average over the 10 year period from 2014 to 2023 by a combined total of approximately 8,300 jobs. 23 P a g e

24 1.2.1 Contribution of Broad Industrial Groups to the Northamptonshire economy (GVA) GVA in Northamptonshire in 2013 by Broad Industrial Group (Source: Oxford Economics) Industry Proportion Amount ( m) Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (G) 14.9% 2235 Manufacturing (C) 13.9% 2088 Property (L) 8.3% 1239 Transport & storage (inc postal) (H) 7.9% 1190 Business administration & support services (N) 7.6% 1143 Health (Q) 7.0% 1048 Financial & insurance (K) 6.6% 989 Construction (F) 6.0% 903 Education (P) 5.7% 849 Professional, scientific & technical (M) 5.0% 750 Arts, entertainment, recreation & other services (R,S,T and U) 3.8% 576 Information & communication (J) 3.7% 549 Public administration & defence (O) 3.4% 504 Mining, quarrying & utilities (B,D and E) 3.1% 461 Accommodation & food services (I) 2.1% 315 In 2013, the largest Broad Industrial Groups by share of overall GVA in Northamptonshire were Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (14.9%) and Manufacturing (13.9%) (Source: Oxford Economics). Both groupings also have the two largest proportions of workplace employment in the county. However, both also have had fairly low or no GVA and employment growth over the 5 years from 2009 to Between 2009 and 2013, the largest average annual % growth in GVA was in Business admin and support services (10.1%), followed, by Education (4.2%) and Information and communication (4.1%). Over the next 10 years from 2014 to 2023, Oxford Economics forecast that Professional, scientific and technical services will have the highest average annual % GVA growth at 5.8% per year, followed by Arts, entertainment, recreation and other services (5.3%) and Business admin and support services Agriculture, forestry & fishing (A) 0.9% 139 (4.9%). Interestingly, Professional, scientific and technical services had the second highest annual % growth in Northamptonshire between 2012 and 2013 at 3.9%, but the average over the 5 year period from 2009 to 2013 only 1.0% due to a dip of -5.3% between 2011 and Average annual % GVA change innorthamptonshire (Source: Oxford Economics) 5-yr ave annual % change 2009 to 2013 Forecasted 10-yr ave annual % change 2014 to 2023 Business administration & support services (N) Education (P) Information & communication (J) Health (Q) Construction (F) Arts, entertainment, recreation & other services (R,S,T and U) Mining, quarrying & utilities (B,D and E) Accommodation & food services (I) Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (G) Property (L) Agriculture, forestry & fishing (A) Professional, scientific & technical (M) Transport & storage (inc postal) (H) Manufacturing (C) Financial & insurance (K) Public administration & defence (O) 4.9% 4.2% 4.1% 4.7% 3.2% 1.9% 2.9% 3.2% 2.8% 5.3% 2.5% -0.3% 2.3% 3.5% -0.5% -2.9% 1.0% 1.7% 3.5% 1.4% 4.6% 1.2% 1.9% 1.0% 0.4% 3.6% -4.4% 1.0% 2.6% 3.6% 5.8% 10.1% 24 P a g e

25 1.2.3 Proportion of SMEs and large enterprises by Broad Industrial Group The number and proportion of enterprises within the different employment size bands varies by industry (see opposite). Unsurprisingly, the Broad Industrial Groups with the highest proportion of large enterprises are Public admin & defence, followed by Education and Health, which will include the large public sector organisations. The Broad Industrial Groups with the highest proportion of micro enterprises are Agriculture, forestry & fishing, followed by Information & communication and Professional, scientific & technical services. 100% % Northamptonshire enterprises by employment size band and Broad Industrial Group in March 2014 (Source: ONS) Micro (0 to 9) Small (10 to 49) Medium-sized (50 to 249) Large (250+) 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 25 P a g e

26 Micro-businesses are an increasingly important source of economic growth. The contribution of micro businesses to the economy has been increasing in recent years. The growth in the business population has been driven by micro firms which have increased by 40% since 2000 [to 2012] (Growing your Business: a report on growing micro-businesses, Lord Young, 2013). In March 2014, it was estimated that the highest number and therefore proportion of all micro-businesses in the county were within Professional, scientific & technical (M) services (17% of all micro businesses). This is consistent with Professional, scientific & technical services being forecasted to have the highest GVA growth over the next 10 years from 2014 to 2023 (Oxford Economics). Micro-businesses in this instance provide the scope for growth. Proportion of all micro businesses in Northamptonshire by Broad Industrial Group in 2014 shown alongside average annual %age change (Source: ONS) Proportion of all micro businesses in 2014 Ave annual %change in number of micro businesses to % 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% The largest average annual percentage increases in the number of micro-enterprises between 2011 and 2014 can be found in Public admin and defence (44% increase from 40 to 120 businesses), which is likely to be driven by large-scale structural changes in the public sector as opposed to potential for growth. The second highest average annual % increase in the number of micro-businesses is in Transport & Storage (17% increase from 1,100 to 1,760 businesses). Please note that between 2013 and 2014 the annual percentage increase in the number of micro-businesses within the Transport & Storage industry was the highest of all Broad Industrial Groups at 37%. 26 P a g e

27 1.2.4 Broad Industrial Group Scorecard The below scorecard summarises the key indicators relating to employment and GVA presented and described above. The purpose of the scorecard is to provide a tool for highlighting the different strengths or weaknesses of the different Broad Industrial Groups to aid future discussion and decision-making around their importance and determining future priorities. A broad analysis is provided on the next page. Broad Industrial Group Proportion (%) of county workplace employment in 2013 Ave annual % change in workplace employment 2009 to 2013 Forecasted ave annual % change in employment 2014 to 2023 Proportion (%) of county GVA in 2013 Ave annual % change in GVA 2009 to 2013 Forecasted ave annual % change in GVA 2014 to 2023 (%) 01 : Agriculture, forestry & fishing (A) : Mining, quarrying & utilities (B,D and E) : Manufacturing (C) : Construction (F) , 06, 07: Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (G) : Transport & storage (inc postal) (H) : Accommodation & food services (I) : Information & communication (J) : Financial & insurance (K) : Property (L) : Professional, scientific & technical (M) : Business administration & support services (N) : Public administration & defence (O) : Education (P) : Health (Q) : Arts, entertainment, recreation & other services (R,S,T and U) Source: ONS UK Business ONS BRES Oxford Economics Oxford Economics Oxford Economics Oxford Economics 27 P a g e

28 Broad Industrial Group Combined scores Combined ave annual Combined volume of employment and GVA employment and % growth from 2009 to share of GVA in Combined ave annual employment and GVA % growth from 2014 to : Agriculture, forestry & fishing (A) : Mining, quarrying & utilities (B,D and E) : Manufacturing (C) : Construction (F) , 06, 07: Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (G) : Transport & storage (inc postal) (H) : Accommodation & food services (I) The data provided in the scorecard above can, for example, be combined to indicate the importance of a Broad Industrial Group. Research and emerging policy seeks to guide how/where changes will occur and growth in the economy will be generated. The table opposite provides combined scores to help guide decision-making. Over the last 5 years (2009 to 2013) % increases in employment and GVA has been greatest in Education, Business admin and support services and Information and communication. 10 : Information & communication (J) : Financial & insurance (K) : Property (L) : Professional, scientific & technical (M) : Business administration & support services (N) : Public administration & defence (O) : Education (P) : Health (Q) : Arts, entertainment, recreation & other services (R,S,T and U) P a g e In terms of volume of employment and share of GVA, Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor and motorcycles, Manufacturing and Health are most important today (2013 data). This is unlikely to change significantly over the next 10 years and those sectors are forecasted to remain important in terms of volume. However, there is potential for other Broad Industrial Groups - not to outgrow some of our biggest sectors in terms of volume in the short to medium-term - but to grow at a faster rate and be significant contributors of employment and GVA growth. Fostering this potential will be important in helping to further economic growth and off-set losses in declining sectors. For example, forecasts suggest that Professional, scientific and technical services, Arts, entertainment, recreation and other services, Business admin and support services will grow the fastest over the next 10 years in terms of percentage increase, and as highlighted earlier, Business admin and support services and Professional, scientific and technical services are forecasted to create the second and third highest number of jobs between 2014 and 2023.

29 1.2.5 Priority industry sectors in Northamptonshire Previous analyses by Northamptonshire Enterprise Partnership have identified sectoral expertise in the county in four industry sectors. These have therefore been selected as priorities for local investment in order to maintain and further catalyse business growth, create employment opportunities and contribute to increased GVA. The four sectors are: cultural and creative industries, food and drink, high performance technologies and logistics. The following pages provide a snapshot of each of these priority sectors; defined as follows (SIC 2007): 29 P a g e Cultural and Creative Industries 1391 : Manufacture of knitted and crocheted fabrics 141 : Manufacture of wearing apparel, except fur apparel 143 : Manufacture of knitted and crocheted apparel 151 : Tanning and dressing of leather; manufacture of luggage, handbags, saddlery and harness;dressing and dyeing of fur 1520 : Manufacture of footwear 5811 : Book publishing 5813 : Publishing of newspapers 5814 : Publishing of journals and periodicals 1820 : Reproduction of recorded media 4779 : Retail sale of second-hand goods in stores 582 : Software publishing 731 : Advertising 1413 : Manufacture of other outerwear 1439 : Manufacture of other knitted and crocheted apparel 5829 : Other software publishing 477 : Retail sale of other goods in specialised stores 5819 : Other publishing activities 5920 : Sound recording and music publishing activities 7420 : Photographic activities 581 : Publishing of books, periodicals and other publishing activities 5911 : Motion picture, video and television programme production activities 5912 : Motion picture, video and television programme post-production activities 5913 : Motion picture, video and television programme distribution activities 5914 : Motion picture projection activities 601 : Radio broadcasting 6391 : News agency activities 711 : Architectural and engineering activities and related technical consultancy 900 : Creative, arts and entertainment activities High Performance Technologies 21 Manufacture of pharmaceuticals 22 Manufacture of rubber and plastic products 24.1 Manufacture of basic iron and steel and of ferro-alloys 24.2 Manufacture of tubes, pipes, hollow profiles and related fittings, of steel 24.3 Manufacture of other products of first processing of steel 24.4 Manufacture of basic precious and other non-ferrous metals 24.5 Casting of metals Manufacture of metal structures and parts of structures Manufacture of other fabricated metal products 26 Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products Manufacture of electric motors, generators and transformers Manufacture of electricity distribution and control apparatus 27.2 Manufacture of batteries and accumulators Manufacture of fibre optic cables Manufacture of other electronic and electric wires and cables Manufacture of wiring devices Manufacture of electric lighting equipment 28 Manufacture of machinery and equipment nec 29 Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 30 Manufacture of other transport equipment Manufacture of medical and dental instruments and supplies Production of electricity Recovery of sorted materials 42 Civil engineering Engineering activities and related technical consultancy Technical testing and analysis Research and experimental development on biotechnology Other research and experimental development on natural sciences and engineering Other professional, scientific and technical activities nec

30 9003 : Artistic creation 9004 : Operation of arts facilities Food & Drink 11 Manufacture of beverage 12 Manufacture of tobacco products 10. Manufacture of food 01. Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities 56. Food and beverage service activities Logistics : Rail (freight and interurban passenger) 49.41: Freight transport by road 52.1: Warehousing and storage : Cargo handling and incidental transport services 49.39: Other passenger land transport 49.42: Removal services 50-51, 49.5: Air, water, or pipeline transport 52.29: Other transportation support activities 53.1: Postal activities under universal service obligation 53.2: Other postal and courier activities Standard Industry Codes SIC P a g e

31 11,700 9,800 9,600 8,300 8,400 NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2015 Cultural and Creative In 2013 there were an estimated 8,400 jobs (workplace employment) in Northamptonshire s Cultural and Creative industries sector (ONS, BRES). The largest proportion of these 8,400 jobs are within architectural and engineering activities and related technical consultancy (42.1%), 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Workplace employment (number) in Northamptonshire's Cultural & Creative industries 2009 to 2013 (Source: ONS, BRES) -8.0% ave annual decrease followed by manufacture of footwear (17.0%) (see opposite). Employment in the county s Cultural and Creative sector has decreased by an average of 8.0% per year from 2009 to 2013 compared to a 5.8% decrease East Midlands average and 1.0% increase England average. In terms of Northamptonshire s total workplace employment, the Cultural and Creative sector accounted for 2.4% of jobs in This is lower than the England (3.3%) average, but slightly higher than the East Midlands (2.1%) average. The proportion of employment in the Cultural and Creative sector in the county has decreased slightly from 3.3% in 2009 to 2.4% in Workplace employment in Cultural and Creative industries in Northamptonshire in 2013 (Source: ONS, BRES) Book publishing 7.6% Advertising 10.4% 8,400 jobs Manufacture of footwear 17.0% Architectural and engineering activities and related technical consultancy 42.1% There were approximately 1,550 Cultural and Creative enterprises in Northamptonshire in 2014 (ONS, UK Business). The number of Cultural and Creative enterprises has increased by an average of 4.5% a year since Across the employment size bands, the proportion of micro enterprises in the Cultural and Creative industries sector in Northamptonshire was higher than the average across all industries in the county in 2014 (93.2% compared with 88.7%). There were less small and medium-sized enterprises than the average across all industries in the county. Between 2011 and 2014, the number of micro enterprises in the Cultural and Creative industries sector in the county has risen by an average of 5.0% per year. The number of small Cultural and Creative enterprises has increased by an average of 8.4% per year and medium-sized enterprises by 10.1%. 31 P a g e

32 24,500 23,100 25,200 25,100 26,800 NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2015 Food & Drink 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Workplace employment (number) in Northamptonshire's Food & Drink 0 Industry 2009 to 2013 (Source: ONS, BRES) 2.3% ave. annual increase In 2013 there were an estimated 26,800 jobs (workplace employment) in Northamptonshire s Food and Drink industry (ONS, BRES). The majority of these 26,800 jobs are within Food and beverage service activities (54.7%), followed by the Manufacture of food products (41.3%). In terms of Northamptonshire s total workplace employment, the Food and Drink industry accounted for 8.3% of jobs in Northamptonshire has a similar proportion of jobs in the Food and Drink industry compared with the England (8.1%) average and a lower proportion than the East Midlands (9.6%) average. However, within the Manufacture of food products industries, Northamptonshire has a higher proportion of employment (3.4%) compared with the England (1.2%) and East Midlands (2.7%) averages. Food & Drink employment as a percentage of the county s total employment has Workplace employment in Northamptonshire's Food & Drink industry in 2013 (Source: ONS, BRES) Manufacture of beverages 3.1% Manufacture of food products 41.3% 26,800 jobs increased from 7.7% in 2009 to 8.3% in Employment in Northamptonshire s Food and Drink industry has increased faster than the England (0.4%) and East Midlands (1.2%) averages with an average of 2.3% per year from 2009 to Food and beverage service activities 54.7% There were approximately 2,540 enterprises in the Food & Drink industry in Northamptonshire in 2014 (ONS, UK Business). The number of Food & Drink enterprises has increased by an average of 2.4% a year since Across the employment size bands, there was a similar proportion of micro and large enterprises compared with the average across all industries in the county, but a slightly higher proportion of small enterprises (9.9% compared with 9.2%) and lower proportion of medium-sized enterprises (0.9% compared with number 1.7%). The number of large enterprises has increased by an average of 26.0% per year between 2011 and 2014, small enterprises by 10.5% and micro enterprises by 1.5%, whereas medium-sized enterprises have decreased by an average of -5.9% per year. 32 P a g e

33 22,500 23,000 23,700 22,800 21,700 NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2015 High Performance Technologies In 2013 there were an estimated 21,700 jobs (workplace employment) in Northamptonshire s High Performance Technologies sector (ONS, BRES). The largest proportion of these 21,700 jobs were within the manufacture of machinery and equipment (17%), followed by engineering activities and related Workplace employment (number) in High Performance Technologies in Northamptonshire 2009 to 2013 (Source: ONS, BRES) -0.9%average 25,000 annual decrease 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, technical consultancy (14.4%) (see opposite). Employment in Northamptonshire s High Performance Technologies sector has decreased by an average of -0.9% per year from 2009 to 2013 compared to a -0.1% England and -0.7% East Midlands average. 45.2% of High Performance Technologies employment in Northamptonshire is within medium-high-technology (the majority) and high-technology manufacturing industries (NACE Rev2. Eurostat definition) compared with a 10.7% England average. In terms of Northamptonshire s total workplace employment, High Performance Technologies accounted for 6.7% of jobs in This is the same as the England (6.7%) average, but lower than Workplace employment in High Performance Technologies in Northamptonshire in 2013 (Source: ONS, BRES) Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. 16.9% Recovery of sorted materials 6.3% Civil engineering 6.7% Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products 7.6% 21,700 jobs Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 12.9% the East Midlands (7.6%) average. The proportion of employment in High Performance Technologies in the county has decreased slightly from 7.1% in 2011 to 6.7% in Engineering activities and related technical consultancy 14.4% Manufacture of rubber and plastic products 13.5% There were approximately 2,140 High Performance Technologies enterprises in Northamptonshire in 2014 (ONS, UK Business). The number of High Performance Technologies enterprises has increased by an average of 4.7% a year since Across the employment size bands, the proportion of micro, small, medium and large enterprises in the High Performance Technologies industry was similar to the average across all industries in the county in There were slightly less micro enterprises and slightly more small enterprises. Between 2011 and 2014, the number of micro and small High Performance Technologies enterprises has, on average, risen (average annual increases of 5.6% and 6.1% respectively), whilst the number of medium-sized enterprises has decreased (annual average decrease of 3.9%). 33 P a g e

34 23,100 25,100 23,700 25,300 24,700 NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2015 Logistics In 2013 there were an estimated 24,700 jobs (workplace employment) in Northamptonshire s Logistics sector (ONS, BRES). The largest proportion of these 24,700 jobs are within warehousing and storage (47.4%), followed by freight transport by road (24.9%) (see opposite). Employment in Northamptonshire s Logistics sector has increased by an average of 1.7% per year from 2009 to 2013 compared to a -0.4% England and 1.4% East Midlands average. 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Workplace employment (number) in Northamptonshire's Logistics industry 2009 to 2013 (Source: ONS, BRES) 1.7% ave annual increase In terms of Northamptonshire s total workplace employment, the Logistics sector accounted for 7.5% of jobs in This is higher than the England (3.9%) and the East Midlands (4.5%) averages. The proportion of employment in the Logistics sector in the county has increase slightly from 7.0% in 2009 to 7.5% in However, in between time, the proportion of employment increased to a high of 7.8% in Other postal and courier activities 6.4% Postal activities under universal service obligation 12.5% Workplace employment in Northamptonshire's Logistics industry in 2013 (Source: ONS, BRES) Freight transport by road 24.9% 24,700 jobs Warehousing and storage 47.4% The number and proportion of people in employment in the Logistics sector in Northamptonshire actually decreased slightly between 2012 and 2013, which is similar to the national picture. There were approximately 1,770 enterprises in the Logistics sector in Northamptonshire in 2014 (ONS, UK Business). The number of Logistics enterprises has increased by an average of 17.4% a year since 2014 compared to a 4.1% England average. Across the employment size bands, the proportion of micro enterprises in the Logistics sector in Northamptonshire was higher than the average across all industries in the county in There were less small and medium-sized enterprises than the average across all industries in the county. Between 2011 and 2014, the number of micro Logistics enterprises in the county has risen by an average of 18.3% per year compared to a 4.3% England average. The number of small Logistics enterprises has increased by an average of 9.4% per year, whilst the number of medium-sized Logistics enterprises has decreased by an average of 20.6% per year. 34 P a g e

35 Gloucestershire LEP Swindon and Wiltshire LEP Northamptonshire LEP Cumbria LEP The Marches LEP NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT Competitiveness Every 2 to 3 years a UK Competitiveness Index (UKCI) is published by the Centre for International Competitiveness based at Cardiff University. It provides a benchmark of the competitiveness of the UK s localities based on the most up to date data available at the time. It has been designed to be an integrated measure of competitiveness focusing on both the development and sustainability of businesses and the economic welfare of individuals [...] In this respect, competitiveness is considered to consist of the capability of an economy to attract and maintain firms with stable or rising market shares in an activity, while maintaining stable or increasing standards of living for those who participate in it (UKCI 2013). It incorporates the following indicators: business start-up rates, number of businesses, proportion of knowledge based businesses, GVA, productivity (output per hour worked), gross weekly pay, as well as employment and unemployment rates, economic activity rates and the proportion of residents with level 4 qualifications or above (see opposite) UK Competitivesness Index and LEP rankings (out of 39) (Source: UKCI 2013) UKCI 2010 UKCI 2013 Based on the findings of the 2013 UKCI, Northamptonshire ranks 16 th out of the 39 LEPs; ahead of the Marches (29 th ) and Cumbria (18 th ), but behind Gloucestershire (11 th ) and Swindon and Wiltshire (14 th ) LEPs. Compared with the 2010 rankings, Northamptonshire has lost a place, moving from 15 th to 16 th. The district and borough rankings range from a high of 96 in South Northamptonshire to a low of 231 in Corby (see opposite). UK Competitivness Index 2013 locality rankings (out of 397) - lower is better (Source: UKCI 2013) th 14th 16th 18th 29th 2013 ranking The following pages provide information on indicators of competitiveness within a local economy. 35 P a g e

36 1.2.7 Knowledge Intensive Services Interest in knowledge-intensive services (KIS) has grown considerably over the last two decades. KIS are likely to be one of the main engines for future [economic] growth within the European Union." (European Commission 2007: 7). Knowledge is the main production factor and the good they offer and they are important players in the innovation process due to their activities having a high knowledge component (Knowledge-intensive (business) services in Europe, European Commission, Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, 2012). Research has found Highly Innovative Firms to be concentrated in Knowledge Intensive Business Services and other knowledge intensive sectors (UK Innovation Survey, Innovative Firms and Growth, March 2014, BIS). The proportion of KIS amongst the business population has become an important benchmark in the context of innovation associated economic competitiveness and the potential for economic growth. Proportion (%) of workplace employment in Knowledge-Intensive Services (KIS) in 2013 (Source: ONS, BRES) Northamptonshire England East Midlands It is estimated that 43.2% of workplace employment in Northamptonshire was in Knowledge Intensive Industries in 2013; lower than the England (49.3%) and East Midlands (44.4%) average (ONS, BRES). Employment in Knowledge-Intensive Services has increased by an average of 0.4% per year in the county from 2009 to 2013, which is slightly lower than the 1.1% England and 0.8% East Midlands averages. The small increase in employment in Knowledge- Intensive services in the county between 2009 and 2013 is, however, above the -0.09% average for all industries. There has also been an increase in the number of KIS enterprises in the county (2011 to 2014) of 5.5% per year on average from 7,865 enterprises in 2011 to 9,235 in The largest proportion of workplace employment in Knowledge-intensive services is within Education (21.3%) followed by Human health activities (15.6%) ( Other Knowledge-Intensive Services ); both above the England averages (18.7% and 14.8% respectively). There is a higher proportion of workplace employment in High-tech knowledge-intensive services in the county (5.4%) compared with the England average (4.3%) and a higher proportion of Knowledge-intensive financial services (6.8% in the county and 3.1% England average). High-tech Breakdown of Knowledge-Intensive Services (KIS) workplace employment in 2013 (Source: ONS, BRES) Market services (excl. financial & high-tech) Financial services Other 62.7% Northants England 66.5% 4.3% 5.4% 26.1% 3.1% 25.1% 6.8% 36 P a g e

37 1.2.8 Productivity Labour productivity is considered a key indicator of economic performance of a sub region and key to increasing economic growth as economic output can only be increased by either increasing the amount of inputs or by raising productivity (ONS). The most recent ONS data from 2012 indicates lower than average productivity levels in Northamptonshire compared to the England average (see graph opposite). Due to the London skew, only 19 out of 99 English sub regions sat above the England average in However, North (Wellingborough, East Northamptonshire, Kettering and Corby) and West (Daventry, Northampton and South Northamptonshire) Northamptonshire both found themselves in the bottom half (third quartile) of the productivity ranking of English sub regions, in 68th and 74th place respectively, and with a GVA per hour worked of 84.5% and 86.1% the UK average. In West Northamptonshire estimated GVA per hour worked, relative to the UK average, has been relatively consistent in recent years (see opposite). Whereas North Northamptonshire has seen greater fluctuation and a worsening position in recent years relative to the UK average. In comparison to the local authorities making up the county s comparator LEP areas North and West Northamptonshire are forth and fifth out of ten areas and in a middling position amongst its competitors in terms of productivity. Since 2008, UK productivity growth has been weakest of the G7 nations and remains a concern. It is considered one of the main factors holding down real wage growth in the UK (ONS). There are many factors that influence productivity levels which might warrant further investigation: one being the industrial structure of an area. Northamptonshire, for example, has a higher proportion of workplace employment in low-technology manufacturing (NACE Rev.2 definition) at 49.1% compared with the England (33.2%) and East Midlands (41.5%) averages. Northamptonshire also has a lower proportion of employment in high-technology manufacturing (4.3%) compared with the England (7.8%) and East Midlands (6.6%) averages GVA per hour worked ( ) 2007 to 2012 (Source: ONS) Swindon ENGLAND Wiltshire CC Gloucestershire West Cumbria Telford and Wrekin West Northants North Northants Shropshire CC Herefordshire East Cumbria 37 P a g e

38 There has also been a more recent paper by the ONS published in 2015: Regional Economic Analysis, GVA for Local Enterprise Partnerships, which assesses Northamptonshire GVA per hour. This report identifies Northamptonshire as one of the lowest ranking LEPs in 2013, as illustrated in the chart beneath. Nominal GVA per hour worked lowest ranking LEPs, 2013 This is concerning because it means that as a county, relative to the rest of the country, Northamptonshire LEP to some extent becoming less productive. The LEPs in this chart are all at least 15% below the UK average for GVA per hour and the represent the worst 10 of 39 LEPs. Productivity clearly needs to a priority for Northamptonshire to keep the economy competitive and growing strongly. 38 P a g e

39 1.2.9 Exporting Given that most future economic opportunities will be overseas, especially in developing countries, exporting is a crucial activity for LEP areas (Building Local Advantage: Review of Local Enterprise Partnership economies in 2014, LEP Network, 2014). Research indicates that that there are some industries that are highly integrated into global supply chains (ONS Economic Review March 2014) Proportion (%) of employment in exportintensive industries* in 2013 (Source: ONS, BRES) In Northamptonshire the estimated proportion of employment in export-intensive industries (where value added of exports per employee being above the national average) was 18.6% in 2013, which was higher than the England (14.7%) and East Midlands (16.9%) averages. However, the proportion of employment in export-intensive industries in Northamptonshire has decreased by an average of 1.6% per year since 2009, compared to 0.0% in England and 0.2% in the East Midlands. Proportion (%) of Northamptonshire employment in export-intensive industries* (Source: ONS, BRES) -1.6% ave annual decrease When compared with other LEPs, Northamptonshire has a relatively high proportion of employment in export-intensive industries (>=18%) and fairs well amongst the group of comparator LEPs (see opposite). *Export-intensive definition is based on value added of exports per employee being above the national average England East Midlands Another useful indicator of export-potential is the share of employees in foreign-owned enterprises. Foreign-owned businesses are more likely to have an international structure, with pre-existing business models and supply chains that include international trade [...] For trade in goods and services in 2012, foreign-owned businesses were around six times more likely to export than UK-owned businesses (Importers and Exporters in Great Britain 2012, ONS). A review of Local Enterprise Partnership economies, published by the LEP Network in 2014 estimated that 1.2% of Northamptonshire s enterprises and 14.2% of employment was in foreign ownership in 2011 compared to 1.2% (exactly the same) of enterprises and 15.0% of employment in foreign-ownership in England. Therefore a slightly lower proportion of employment, but the same proportion of enterprises compared with the England average. 39 P a g e

40 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2015 Export documentation applications (#) received by Northamptonshire Chamber of Commerce and value of shipments (Source: Northamptonshire Chamber of Commerce) Export documentation applications (number) Value of shipments ( ) Data collected by Northamptonshire Chamber of Commerce during 2013 and 2014 indicates a possible increase in export activity in the county in 2014 compared to The number of export documentation applications received by the Chamber from Jan to Nov 2014 increased by 3.4% compared to the same period in 2013 and the value of shipments by 4.9%. 1,500 1,000 1,019 1,357 1,099 1,467 1,061 45,000,000 35,000,000 25,000,000 From Jan 2013 to Nov 2014, the industry sector showing the largest proportion of export activity is Transport and Storage (British Chamber of Commerce definition) accounting for 49.3% of export documentation applications and 46.7% of the total value of shipments. This is followed by Other Manufacturing, accounting for 17.0% of applications and 21.1% of the total shipment value ,000,000 Please note that the Chamber of Commerce network is an accredited issuer of export documentation for those countries who require the documentation. Although the Chamber network is the only network of organisations authorised to issue export documents required to send goods abroad (for Chamber members and non-members), documentation is not required for every country and the need is variable, subject to changes in customs regulations, and political and financial changes for example. Year-on-year activity is not, strictly speaking, directly comparable; however the data does provide a partial picture and a useful indication of any major change in activity. 40 P a g e

41 Research and Innovation Over the last two decades there has been a growing realisation that the long run economic performance of nations, firms and industries is dependent on their ability to exploit technological innovation (Cohen, 2010, published in UK Innovation Survey: Innovative Firms & Growth, Department for Business Innovation & Skills, 2014). Innovation is important in improving quality of goods and services, replacing outdated products or processes, increasing market share, increasing range of goods or services, increasing value added, entering new markets and more (First findings from the UK Innovation Survey 2013, Department for Business, Innovation & Skills, 2014). At a regional level, The UK Innovation Survey 2013 (Department for Business, Innovation and Skills) estimated that the East Midlands region had, marginally, the highest proportion of innovation active businesses with almost 50% (First findings from the UK Innovation Survey 2013, Department for Business, Innovation & Skills, 2014). However, this data is not available at LEP or Local Authority level. In addition, regional data on business expenditure on R&D in 2012 indicates that the East Midlands region ranked third highest out of the 9 English regions in terms of business expenditure on R&D as a percentage of GVA (Regional Economic Indicators, ONS, July 2014). Knowledge Intensive Services: Although product or process innovation features across the industry spectrum, research has indicated that Highly Innovative Firms are concentrated in Knowledge Intensive Business Services and other knowledge intensive sectors (UK Innovation Survey, Innovative Firms and Growth, March 2014, BIS). As reported earlier, 43.2% of workplace employment in Northamptonshire was in Knowledge Intensive Services (KIS) in 2013; lower than the England (49.3%) and East Midlands (44.4%) average (ONS, BRES). However, the county has a higher proportion of Knowledge Intensive Service enterprises than the East Midlands average, although consistently lower than the England average between 2011 and The proportion of Knowledge Intensive Service enterprises has increased year on year in the Northamptonshire (by an average of 5.5% per year). However, the gap between the county and England average has widened further between 2013 and 2014 from 4.2 percentage points in 2011 to 4.9percentage points in % 35% 30% 25% 20% 36.2% 32.0% 29.2% Proportion (%) of Knowledge Intensive Service enterprises (Source: ONS) % 34.1% 31.5% England Northamptonshire East Midlands 41 P a g e

42 Patent applications: Patenting is one method used to protect the value of an innovation. Northamptonshire has an annual average (2007 to 2011) patents per 100,000 residents of 5.5, ranking 27 out of 39 LEPs (bottom 3 rd quartile), sitting below the England average of 9.3 and closer to the bottom score of the comparator LEPs. The highest proportion of science and technology patent applications appears to be in the field of ICT, which is appears to be the case in Northamptonshire Average annual patents (over the 5 years from 2007 to 2011) by LEP per 100,000 residents (Source: LEP Network Report 2014 taken from OECD.Stat) England Patent application statistics to the European Patent Office indicate a decrease in patent applications over the last 5 years and beyond, which appears to be a national trend and could be attributable to a combination Swindon and Wiltshire Gloucestershire Northamptonshire Cumbria The Marches of factors; not simply economic conditions. Overall, the proportion of Northamptonshire s patent applications in the UK's total patents was 0.4% in 2011, falling from 0.6% in 2007, whilst the East Midlands share in the UK s total patents has risen to 9.8% in 2011 from 6.6% in R&D Tax Credits: SME and SME sub-contractor R&D tax credit claims by The research and development (R&D) tax credit schemes was introduced in 2000/2001; designed to encourage greater R&D spending, leading in turn to greater investment in innovation (Research and Development Tax Credits Statistics, HMRC, 2014). The statistics opposite provide a partial picture of R&D activity in terms of it showing SME claims (approximate split between SME and large company claims is 75:25). Please note that not all expenditure on R&D in the UK is used to claim the tax credit, so statistics are not a comprehensive account of all R&D activity in the UK, but provide a useful indicator of the change of activity in relation to the Government s tax relief scheme. This data shows an increase in R&D Tax Credit claims in Northamptonshire between 2007/8 and 2012/13. Please note that the marked increase in the number claims in most likely reflects changes to R&D tax credit policy which came into effect on 1st April This is consistent with the national trend. The number of R&D Tax Credit claims in Northamptonshire per 1,000 active enterprises in Northamptonshire was similar to the England average in at 5.9 compared with the 5.7 England average companies in Northamptonshire (registered office location*) (Source: HMRC) Amount claimed ( m) Number of claims * The statistics are based on figures are based on the registered address of the companies making the claims. 42 P a g e

43 1.3 SWOT Analysis Strengths A growing local economy - the economic recovery is evident in Northamptonshire, having seen: A steady increase in the number of active enterprises between 2009 and 2013; An above (national) average, and accelerating increase in the number of business births between 2009 and 2013, bringing the birth rate on a par with the national average; An above (national) average % increase in the number of micro-businesses between March 2013 and March 2014, which is likely to have been positively influenced by a spike in selfemployment between September 2012 and 2013; A decrease in the number of business deaths (businesses closing) from 2009 to 2013 bringing the business death rate below (and therefore better) than the national average; Recovering rates of business survival from 2011 and above (national) average rates of survival from 2008 onwards; A 1% increase in workplace employment (jobs) between 2012 and 2013, albeit slightly lower than the national average of 1.42%; A stable and above (national) average (better) employment rate well into 2014 and a falling and consistently below (national) average (better) Job Seekers Allowance claimant rate amongst the county s residents throughout 2014 indicating that local people are benefiting from growth in the local economy; Recovering rate of GVA growth in 2013 back on par with the national average after an above (national) average dip in GVA growth between 2010 and Above average jobs and growth in certain industries Higher proportion of employment in Transport and storage and Wholesale industries than the national and regional averages in Greater average annual % increase in workplace employment (job creation) in Education, Health and Transport and storage than the national and regional averages from 2009 to Priority sector Food and drink: well above (national) average annual % increase in the number of jobs (workplace employment) from 2009 and 2013 Priority sector High Performance Technologies: well above (national average) in terms of proportion of jobs (workplace employment) within the HPT sector in medium-hightechnology (the majority) and high-technology manufacturing industries in Priority sector Logistics: above (national) average annual % increase in jobs (workplace employment) from 2009 to 2013 and well above (national) average proportion of jobs in the logistics sector. Competitive local economy Reasonable level of competitiveness according to the UK Competitiveness Index 2013, combining a range of indicators. Northamptonshire is within the top half (in the second quartile) out of all LEPs in 16 th place out of 39. Higher than (national) average proportion of jobs (workplace employment) in export-intensive industries and average (equal to national average) share of employees in foreign owned enterprises; both indicators of potential export activity. 43 P a g e

44 Weaknesses Below average earnings Significantly higher proportion of lower paid jobs than the national average and therefore average pay (gross weekly earnings of full-time workers) by Northamptonshire workplaces remains below (national) average with below (national) average growth between 2011 and 2014 and a decrease between 2013 and 2014 in contrast to a slight rise nationally. Lower proportion of jobs (workplace employment) in Knowledge Intensive Industries (typically higher skill requirements and pay levels) than national average in 2013 and lower rate of employment growth between 2009 and Labour productivity - a key indicator of economic performance and important contributor to holding down real wage growth - lower than (national) average in 2012 (latest data), in bottom half (within third quartile) of productivity rankings and below average amongst its competitors. Worsening position in North Northamptonshire relative to national average. Below average earnings contributes to in-work poverty, underemployment, wasted talent and economic growth potential and low-social mobility. Growth constraints Lower than (national) average proportion of jobs and enterprises in Knowledge Intensive Services; predicted to be one of the main drivers of future [economic] growth and important players in the innovation process. Lower than (national) average patent applications per 100,000 residents. Patenting is one method used to protect and innovation and therefore one indicator of research and development activity. Lower than (national average labour productivity (as above), which is key to increasing economic growth as economic output can only be increased by either increasing the amount of inputs or by raising productivity (ONS). No growth in number of medium-sized enterprises between 2010 and 2014 despite a rise in England might warrant further investigation. This might be important within the context of a lower (average annual) employment growth between 2009 and 2013 compared with the national average despite an increase in the number of active enterprises in Northamptonshire. Opportunities Driving jobs and GVA growth Fostering potential within certain industries will be important in helping to further economic growth and off-set losses in declining industries. Growing micro-businesses Opportunity to capitalize on the recent, above average increase in the number of micro-businesses and the county s entrepreneurial spirit, demonstrated by the spike in selfemployment between September 2012 and 2013, in the face of a declining (at the time) jobs market, which is likely to have positively influenced the increase in micro-businesses. The available data suggests that scope for growth of micro-businesses could be greatest within Professional, scientific and technical services, Business administration and support services, Transport and Storage and Information and Communication. This is based on these Broad Industrial Groups having a combination of the following: the highest proportions of micro-businesses in 2014, the highest growth in the number of micro-businesses between and forecasted to have medium to high levels of GVA and employment growth potential over the next 10 years. 44 P a g e

45 Opportunities Industries forecasted to contribute most to job creation (volume) In the county, the highest volume of jobs over the 10 years from 2014 to 2023 are forecasted (Oxford Economics) to be created in Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (8,600 jobs), followed by Business admin and support services (7,300) and Professional, scientific and technical services (5,500). Industries with relative, highest employment and GVA growth potential There is potential for other Broad Industrial Groups - not to outgrow some of our biggest sectors in terms of volume in the short to medium-term - but to grow at a faster rate and become significant contributors of employment and GVA growth. Forecasts (Oxford Economics) suggest that Professional, scientific and technical services, Arts, entertainment, recreation and other services, Business admin and support services will grow the fastest over the next 10 years in terms of percentage increase in employment and GVA. Exporting activity Indicators of exporting activity also suggest potential in the local economy to grow exporting activity if not already present in industries that are considered to have exportpotential/be export-intensive, particularly if targeted for export support as a means of maximising opportunities overseas as a means of business and employment growth. Threats Future growth limitations The GVA growth forecasts (Oxford Economics) assume a combination of employment and productivity growth. GVA increasing at the higher rate (upper scenario) relies on productivity of the labour force in Northamptonshire improving significantly (Oxford Economics). Lower than average labour productivity levels in North and West Northamptonshire therefore pose a risk to future growth (and achieving the target of GVA growth levels of 1% over and above those achieved nationally) and have possibly been factor in lower than average employment and GVA growth in recent years (average annual % change between 2009 and 2013). Understanding the drivers behind current levels of labour productivity in the county warrants further investigation (e.g. composition of the workforce full/part-time, industrial structure etc.). The current opportunities in the county relating to type of jobs available and earnings potential (i.e. significantly higher proportion of lower paid jobs than the national average and therefore below average pay by Northamptonshire workplaces) poses a threat to future growth in terms of the potential for underemployment and wasted talent of the current and next generation workforce as well as skills leakage (i.e. out-commuting or outward migration of the most highly skilled/qualified residents). Economic growth is highly dependent on a wide range of external factors. Despite good levels of national economic growth since the most recent and prolonged economic downturn, there are still, and will continue to be, a multitude of threats to economic performance that transcend even national boundaries and cause concern amongst some of the most credible economic commentators. 45 P a g e

46 CHAPTER 2: Employment and Skills Chapter 2: Contents 2.1 Working Age Population: Overview 2.4 Skills and Qualifications: Overview This section assesses the working-age resident population and changes in the wider population which impact on the proportion of those of working-age. It highlights changes in the aged population, numbers of young people, and the affects of domestic and international migration, as well as qualification levels amongst the adult population. 2.2 Working Population: Overview This section outlines the in work resident population in terms the characteristics of those in employment, including qualification levels (including by employment rate), occupations, levels of self-employment, earnings and disposable income. This section reviews skills and qualifications of the current, resident working-age population and future generations in terms of qualification levels and school attainment and provision, drawing on the Northamptonshire Skills Strategy. 2.5 Social Mobility This section assesses social mobility and opportunity for Northamptonshire residents and the risk factors associated with low social mobility and affect of wasted talent on the local economy. This will consider the affects of child poverty, parental qualifications, employment status and earnings, and prospects for young people in terms of the NEET rate, youth unemployment rates, quality of jobs and vocational training 2.3 Unemployment: Overview This section assesses the unemployed resident population and characteristics of those seeking work and claiming out of work benefits, reasons for claiming, jobs sought and identification of groups who are disproportionately affected by unemployment. 2.6 SWOT: Overview This section assesses the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats related to employment and skills in Northamptonshire. 46 P a g e

47 Key Statistics Working Age Population Working aged population (16-64 years old) 63.32% 2013 Net inflow of 22 year olds 1.6% 2012/13 Net outflow of 19 year olds 14.11% 2012/13 In Work Population Aged in employment 77% 2013/14 Aged in self employment 9.9% 2013/14 In professional occupations +3.7% In process, plant and machine occupations -2.2% Unemployment Job Seekers Allowance Claimants 7,965 Feb 2015 JSA claimants aged % Feb 2015 JSA claimants aged % Feb 2015 JSA claimants aged % Feb 2015 Skills and Qualifications No Qualifications 11% 2013 NVQ1 and above 83% 2013 NVQ2 and above 69% 2013 NVQ3 and above 54% 2013 NVQ4 and above 31% 2013 Degree level or above 31% 2013 Social Mobility Aged 0-15 in low income families 15.8% 2012 West Northamptonshire JPU children in workless households 10.5% 2012 North Northamptonshire JPU children in workless households 12.4% 2012 Comparison with respect to England value: Higher Similar Lower JSA claimants aged % Feb P a g e

48 2.1 Working-age population (16 to 64 year olds) The working-age population (16 to 64 year olds) is estimated to be 447,445 people in mid-2013; 63.32% of the total population of the county. This is consistent with the England and East Midlands averages, with slight variance across the county. Since 1981 the total population of Northamptonshire has increased by almost 33% (in excess of double the increase for England), growing from around 530,000 residents to the current (mid-2013) 706,600. Whilst this has seen growth in all segments of the population, it has also witnessed a shift toward a more top heavy population (residents aged 65+) with relatively slow growth amongst those aged 0 to 15 years since 1992 and a plateauing of 16 to 64 year olds after The population of Northamptonshire is expected to continue growing, with predictions it could reach between 755,000 and 770,000 by 2021 and continue on an upwards trajectory depending on variances in fertility, migration, and life expectancy. However, the working age population is projected to decline as a proportion of the total population (by 2.29% between 2013 and 2021), as dependent groups (0 to 15s and 65+), particularly those aged 65+, increase at a faster rate. The dependency ratio is projected to increase (get worse) between 2013 and 2021; and at a greater rate than the England average (the dependency ratio is the extent to which the non-working age population is dependent on the working age population). This is due to the increase in the 65+ population (e.g. people living longer) to a much greater extent than change in the 0 to 15 population. This is particularly stark in East Northamptonshire, Daventry and South Northamptonshire. Corby is the exception, where the reverse is projected. East Northamptonshire, Daventry and South Northamptonshire also have the lowest proportions of 0 to 15 year olds and 18 to 24 year olds (mid-2013), the highest net outflow of 19 year olds (mid-2012 to mid-2013); and lowest levels of inbound, international migrations (2011). Note: Throughout this document the lines on the charts which are solid and red represent 48 P a g e the England average, and the dotted green lines represent the East Midlands average.

49 The size of the 18 to 24 year old population in the county and ability to retain/attract back the most highly qualified young people has an affect on the working-age population both in terms of number and qualification levels. In 2013, the county had a lower proportion of 18 to 24 year olds than the England and East Midlands averages (mid-2013 population estimates, ONS). The proportion of 18 to 24 year olds in the county is projected to decrease by 2021 and then increase between 2021 and 2031 once the post-2008 surge in births reaches this age bracket. It appears that the county does not attract back the same numbers of young people as it loses when people leave home to study. Between mid-2012 and mid % of 19 year olds moved out of the county (net outflow, i.e. off-set against number of 19 year olds moving into the county to study). Age 19 is the peak age for moves nationally [approximately 20% of young people], the main age at which people leave home for study (ONS). There is another peak at age 22; in many cases this will reflect graduates moving for employment, further study, returning to their home address [...] (ONS). In the same year, there was a net inflow of just 1.6% of young people aged 22 into the county. 49 P a g e

50 2.1.1 The working-age population: Adult qualifications The county remains below the England average in terms of its proportion of working age adults with degree-level qualifications or above, although this/it is improving. There has been an increase in the county (31.0% in 2013 compared with 27.5% in 2012) and a narrowing of the gap between the county and England average (by 3.7%). Amongst the districts and boroughs, South Northamptonshire is the exception in terms of sitting above the England average at 38.7%, up from 31.6% in Corby remains the district/borough with the lowest proportion at 19.8%, albeit an improvement on 2012 (14.2%). The ability of the county to attract (back) young people who leave the county to study or indeed highly qualified young people from elsewhere will impact on higher skill levels. At the lower skills end, the proportion of working age adults with no qualifications in the county increased between 2012 and 2013 from 8.6% to 10.5%; back above the England average (9.1%). To put it into context, the county experienced a high of 15.9% in 2009.There was an increase in all districts and boroughs between 2012 and 2013, apart from Kettering and Daventry, with the greatest increase by far in Corby (8.8% to 17.4%). At the time of the 2011 Census, International migration had had a positive affect on higher skills levels overall % of 25 to 64 year olds in Northamptonshire who were not born in the UK had a degree-level qualification or above compared with 28.90% of those born in the UK. However, this is much lower than the national average, and particularly low amongst residents from EU Accession countries. 50 P a g e

51 2.2 The in work resident population The charts below illustrate various elements related to the in work or employed population. From April 2013 to March 2014 Northamptonshire had a 77% in work population aged 16-64, slightly over the England average and significantly above the East Midlands average. South Northamptonshire has a very high percentage of its year old population in employment (86.4%) and Wellingborough has by far the lowest levels of employment for this age (69.8%). The percentage of working age adults (16-64 year olds) who are self employed is 9.9% in Northamptonshire, below the England average but above the East Midlands average. The percentage of self employed in South Northamptonshire is especially high (17.5%), well above the Northamptonshire, England and East Midlands averages. Corby and Daventry have very low percentages of self employed population, with 5.8% and 5.9% respectively, both well below the Northamptonshire, East Midlands and England scores. The percentage of residents who work outside the county is 18.2% compared to 13.6% who live outside the county but work inside it. This means more people commute out from Northamptonshire compared to how many commute into Northamptonshire by 4.6%. There is also large district level variation in commuting out/in of the county illustrated in the charts below. 51 P a g e

52 2.2.1 Jobs Density in Northamptonshire Jobs density can be used as a measure of the overall balance between jobs and people within an area. It is defined as the number of filled jobs in an area divided by the number of people of working age who are resident in the area. In 2013 Northamptonshire had a job density of 0.82 (or 82 filled jobs for each 100 people of working age), which is higher than both the England (0.80) and East Midlands (0.76) averages (see the chart on the left).there is also significant variation at district level, with a low of 0.63 in East Northamptonshire and a high of 0.99 in Northampton (see chart on the right). 52 P a g e

53 2.2.2 Employment by occupation in Northamptonshire The pattern of employment split by the 9 SOC2010 occupation classifications is shown in the chart beneath. One of the most noticeable trends is for a sharp increase in the percentage of professional occupations from April 2011 to March It is also noticeable that the percentage of elementary occupations has decreased significantly over the same period. 53 P a g e

54 2.2.3 Employment by Occupation: Northamptonshire compared to England and East Midlands - Long Term Trends The percentage change in employment by types of occupation for Northamptonshire compared to the East Midlands and Great Britain is shown in the table beneath change 1:managers, directors and senior officials 2:professional occupations 3: associate prof & tech occupations 4:administrative and secretarial occupations 5: skilled trades occupations 6: caring, leisure and other service occupations 7: sales and customer service occupations 8: process, plant and machine operatives 9:elementary occupations Northamptonshire +0.30% +3.70% +0.70% -1.20% -1.80% +0.90% +0.90% -2.20% -1.20% Great Britain +0.50% +2.90% +1.00% -2.30% -1.40% +1.30% -0.60% -1.30% -0.40% East Midlands +0.20% +3.00% +1.00% -1.50% -2.00% +0.60% -0.20% -0.80% -0.40% The largest increase has been in the percentage of professional occupations (+3.7%). This is 0.8% bigger than the Great Britain percentage change and 0.7% bigger than the East Midlands. The second biggest increase was in caring, leisure and other service occupations (+0.9%); although this was 0.4% less than the Great Britain average change, it was 0.3% better than the East Midlands. Sales and customer service occupations are equal second in terms of percentage increase in Northamptonshire (+0.9%). This is significant as the Great Britain (-.6%) and East Midlands (-0.2%) scores are both negative. The biggest decrease in Northamptonshire occupations was in process plant and machine operatives (-2.2%). This is a decrease of more than both Great Britain (1.3%) and the East Midlands (0.8%). The second largest decrease in occupation group was skilled trade occupations (-1.8%). This change is by more than Great Britain (-0.4%) but by less than the East Midlands (-2%). 54 P a g e

55 2.3 The unemployed resident population: Job Seekers Allowance Monthly JSA: County and District Feb 2014-Feb 2015 The number of job seekers allowance claimants for Northamptonshire and all districts is illustrated in the table on below. The number of JSA claimants has reduced significantly over the past 12 months. County level, the number of claimants has gone down from 11,901 in Feb 2014 to 7,965 in February 2015 as shown in the chart on the right. Despite this however there has been an increase in JSA claimants from December 2014 to February 2015, of 1,237. Northamptonshire s year on year decrease in claimants for January has lessened when compared with last month and now stands at -33.1% (rather than -34.3% in January and -37.2% in December). Nevertheless, the county decrease is still slightly better than the England average. Northampton remains the only borough/district with a lesser decrease than the country as a whole, despite an improvement in the borough s % year on year decrease during February. Date Northamptonshire Corby Daventry East Northamptonshire Kettering Northampton South Northamptonshire Wellingborough February ,901 1, ,047 1,688 4, ,611 March ,402 1, ,637 4, ,525 April ,177 1, ,588 4, ,496 May ,942 1, ,590 4, ,442 June ,107 1, ,458 4, ,340 July ,736 1, ,427 3, ,298 August ,120 1, ,362 3, ,173 September , ,275 3, ,066 October , ,149 3, ,009 November , ,076 2, December , ,000 2, January , ,058 3, ,015 February , ,115 3, , P a g e

56 2.3.1 Job Seekers Allowance: Northamptonshire and Districts The monthly JSA rates (as a % of the population) in Northamptonshire and the Districts contained within it is displayed in the chart on the right. Corby, Wellingborough and Northampton have consistently high JSA rates compared to the other areas. South Northamptonshire has the lowest rate by far over the period, followed by Daventry and East Northamptonshire JSA Comparison to other LA s The year on year change in the actual number of JSA claimants and the percentage change of Northamptonshire and its statistical comparator Local Enterprise Partnerships is shown below. Year on year change compared to statistical comparators Local Enterprise Partnership February 2014 number Feb 2014 Rate Feb 2015 number Feb 2015 Rate Difference % change Cumbria 6, , ,155-32% Gloucestershire 7, , ,091-39% Northamptonshire 11, , ,936-33% Swindon and Wiltshire 7, , ,021-38% The Marches 9, , ,444-37% Northamptonshire has reduced its JSA claimants by the highest actual number of claimants compared to the other LEPs. In percentage terms however Northamptonshire has reduced the number of claimants by 37.2%. This is significantly higher than Cumbria LEP but slightly lower than The Marches LEP, Gloucestershire LEP and Swindon & Wiltshire LEP. Northamptonshire has the second highest rate of claimants (1.5%) compared to the statistical comparators, showing that whilst the rates have gone down they are still quite high. 56 P a g e

57 2.3.3 The Age of JSA Claimants (Feb 2015) The number of JSA claimants and this expressed as a percentage rate is shown in the table below. Aged Aged Aged Aged Area number rate number2 rate3 number4 rate5 number6 rate7 lep: Cumbria 4, , , , lep: Gloucestershire 4, , , , lep: Northamptonshire 7, , , , lep: Swindon and Wiltshire 4, , , , lep: The Marches 5, , , , Corby Daventry East Northamptonshire Kettering 1, Northampton 3, , South Northamptonshire Wellingborough 1, England 673, , , , East Midlands 56, , , , It is clear that Northamptonshire has higher JSA claimants than its statistical comparator authorities in all age groups. Compared to England, Northamptonshire has less year olds by 0.1%, the same percentage of year olds, and less and year olds. There is a wide range of JSA rates contained within Northamptonshire s districts, with Corby having high levels across the age groups, and especially in the year old group (3.5%). Wellingborough also has a very high proportion of year olds claiming JSA: 3.8% (the highest of any group in the county). South Northamptonshire has consistently low JSA claimants across the age groups with 0.6% of year olds claiming JSA. Although even in South Northamptonshire JSA claimants who are aged are the highest proportion (0.8%) illustrating that unemployment is impacting of year olds by a larger amount than any other age group across the county. 57 P a g e

58 2.3.4 The Length of JSA Claimants The number of claimants over 6 and 12 month periods are illustrated in the table below, at county and district level. Area Feb-14 Feb-15 Claiming over 6 months Claiming over 2 years Claiming under 1 year Total Claiming over 6 months Claiming over 2 years Claiming under 1 year Total number rate number rate number rate number rate number rate number rate number rate number rate Northamptonshire 4, , , , , , , , Corby , , Daventry East Northamptonshire , Kettering , , , Northampton 1, , , , , , South Northamptonshire Wellingborough , , , Compared with the same month last year, the numbers of people across the county claiming for over a 12 month period and also for over a 6 month period have decreased (down 40.7% and 42.7% respectively). The improvements in these %-decreases which were experienced at the end of 2014 have now stalled in both categories. The lowest (worst) percentage decreases are still found in Northampton (both categories decreasing by about a third over the year). 58 P a g e

59 2.3.5 Types of Occupations sought by JSA Claimants: Feb 2015 Across Northamptonshire, 35.7% of claimants are searching for Sales and Customer Service roles (up from 33.9% last month) the proportion rises to 42.1% in Wellingborough. Additionally, 30.8% of claimants in the county are searching for elementary occupations (rising to 40.7% in Corby). February is the third month that there have been more claimants searching for Sales and Customer Service roles in the county than for Elementary Occupations. Between December 2014 and February 2015 the number of claimants searching for Sales and Customer Services roles rose by 28.4% (630 persons) and they made up around 50% of the county s overall increase in claimants during this period. Over the same period, the increases amongst the county s boroughs/districts for this Sales category ranged from 40.7% in Daventry to 24.7% in Wellingborough. 59 P a g e

60 2.4 Detailed Skills & qualifications of Northamptonshire residents The percentage of working age adults with no qualifications and with degree level qualifications or above is illustrated beneath for Northamptonshire and districts. The percentage of working age adults with no qualifications is 10.5% in Northamptonshire, above both the East Midlands and England averages. The percentage of working age adults with no qualifications is highest in Corby by far (17.4%), followed by East Northamptonshire (11.6%). Conversely the percentage of working age adults with degree level qualifications is 31% in Northamptonshire, lower than the England average but below the East Midlands average. By far the highest district in terms of degree level and above qualifications is South Northamptonshire (38.7%), which is above the East Midlands and England averages. The second highest proportion of at least degree level qualifications is Northampton, which is above the East Midlands average and just above the England average. All the other districts are below the England average, with the worst coming in Corby (19.8%) 60 P a g e

61 2.4.1 Skills Profile: Jan 2013 Dec 2013 Below are the results from the ONS annual population survey, which illustrate the levels of qualification in Northamptonshire, the East Midlands and England. This is for the proportion of the population aged from For all levels of NVQ qualification Northamptonshire is just above the East Midlands average percentage and just below the England average percentage. This is with the exception of other qualifications and no qualifications. 61 P a g e

62 2.4.2 The percentage of the population aged with NVQ4 and above level qualifications The percentage of the population aged with NVQ4 level and above qualifications between 2004 and the end of 2013 is illustrated beneath for Northamptonshire, the East Midlands and Great Britain. The rate in Northamptonshire has been gradually increasing over the time period with some fluctuations, notably in 2009/2010 where there was a slump in this qualification level in the county, especially in relation to the East Midlands and Great Britain averages. Great Britain and the East Midlands have both seen more consistent increases in this qualification level over the period and the December 2013 percentage in Northamptonshire (just over 30%) remains below the Great Britain score. Although despite this Northamptonshire still remains just above the East Midlands average in December P a g e

63 2.4.3 GCSE Qualifications Below are the percentage of students achieving five or more A* to C GCSE in Northamptonshire, the localities within it and the England Average for state funded schools over the period 2010 to 2014.It must be noted that the 2014 results are not comparable due to a change in methodology used to calculate them. Despite this, Northamptonshire is consistently behind the national state schools average throughout the period The best performing district in the county is South Northamptonshire, which overtook Corby in 2014, but both are still above the national average for state schools. The worst performing district in 2014 is Northampton followed by East Northamptonshire, both of which are significantly behind the national average for state schools in P a g e

64 The chart beneath illustrates the percentage change from 2013 to 2014 for Northamptonshire, England, all state funded schools and Northamptonshire s statistical neighbours. The purpose of this is to illustrate the relative change, as the measures are based on different methodologies, so cannot be directly compared. It is clear that Northamptonshire compares well in History and Geography, where it has had the lowest decrease in KS4 attainment compared to England (all schools), England (all state schools) and its statistical neighbours. Northamptonshire also compares very well in Sciences, where there has been a 1.9% increase, compared to a minor increase in the statistical neighbours and a reduction in the England and all state schools averages. There is a disproportionately high reduction in attainment in English in Northamptonshire, which is significantly higher than all the comparator data (nearly double the England average and more than triple the statistical comparators). 64 P a g e

65 2.4.4 A- Level Qualifications The distribution of A-level qualification attainment in Northamptonshire, the districts within it, and the national average for state funded schools is illustrated in the two tables beneath. It is clear that Northamptonshire is behind the national average for state funded schools in terms of those students attaining the highest grades at A-level with 4.72% of Northamptonshire students attaining an A* grade compared to 7.67% at national level in There are also less Northamptonshire students attaining A*-B grades, with 43.52% compared to 50.83% nationally. Despite this however, there has been a year on year increase in attainment of the A* grade in Northamptonshire (by 0.13%), but this is lower than the national increase (1.11%). Also, on the negative side, there is a reduction in the number of Northamptonshire students attaining an A*-B grade (of -1.13%), compared to an increase in national attainment of these grades (of 0.94%) District level, there is significant variation within Northamptonshire in terms of A-level attainment, illustrated below. Areas such as South Northamptonshire have high levels of A* attainment in 2014 (5.95%). Where as conversely areas such as Corby have high percentages of fail rates (3.72%) in % Achievement (pass rates) 2014 % Achievement (pass rates) Area A* A*-B A*-E Fail A* A*-B A*-E Fail Corby 2.82% 46.99% 97.56% 2.44% 3.44% 44.13% 96.28% 3.72% Daventry 3.91% 42.99% 97.98% 2.02% 4.04% 40.06% 98.87% 1.13% East Northants 6.03% 36.96% 96.99% 3.01% 4.04% 36.11% 97.67% 2.33% Kettering 5.64% 46.51% 98.39% 1.61% 4.56% 47.35% 97.86% 2.14% Northampton 4.41% 43.54% 97.06% 2.94% 4.70% 42.05% 97.38% 2.62% South Northants 4.90% 48.22% 98.43% 1.57% 5.95% 46.54% 97.39% 2.61% Wellingborough 3.22% 44.54% 98.18% 1.82% 4.14% 48.90% 99.17% 0.83% Northamptonshire 4.59% 44.65% 97.80% 2.20% 4.72% 43.52% 97.68% 2.32% National state funded 6.56% 49.89% 98.22% 1.78% 7.67% 50.83% 98.19% 1.81% Year on Year change % Achievement (pass rates) District A* A*-B A*-E Fail National state funded 1.11% 0.94% -0.03% 0.03% Corby 0.62% -2.87% -1.28% 1.28% Daventry 0.13% -2.93% 0.89% -0.89% East Northants -1.99% -0.85% 0.69% -0.69% Kettering -1.08% 0.84% -0.53% 0.53% Northampton 0.28% -1.49% 0.32% -0.32% South Northants 1.05% -1.68% -1.04% 1.04% Wellingborough 0.92% 4.36% 0.99% -0.99% Northamptonshire 0.13% -1.13% -0.12% 0.12% Please note that this data is for 6 th forms only and does not include other further education colleges as they are omitted from the dataset. 65 P a g e

66 South Northants Daventry East Northants Kettering Northants Northampton W'borough Corby NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT Social mobility The Child Poverty Act 2010 (section 22) requires local authorities to conduct a Child Poverty Needs Assessment, this section on social mobility is Northamptonshire s response to this requirement (as well as being part of the local Economic Assessment). Social mobility is a measure of opportunities in society. The extent to which people s success in life is influenced by who their parents are and the extent to which people are able to progress during their working lives are both important aspects of this [...] One study found that Western countries with high social mobility have enjoyed a much higher economic growth rate over the past century than low-mobility economies (State of the Nation 2013, Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission). Social mobility is therefore an important topic for due consideration within a Local Economic Assessment as well as in relation to child poverty. Proxy measures that are likely to be associated with future rates of social mobility are centred on indicators of child poverty due to the detrimental outcomes for children found to be associated with child poverty that affects their social mobility (Economic and Social Research Council). According to the Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission, the economic price of child poverty is wasted potential and lower [economic] growth. A wide range of indicators of child poverty have been identified by the Child Poverty Unit (HM Government), published in September 2014, to help localities understand the broad range of factors contributing to child poverty locally (Child Poverty Basket of Indicators). This follows the publication of the new national Child Poverty Strategy published in June The below information draws from the child poverty basket of local indicators, as does the Northamptonshire Joint Strategic Needs Assessment. % Children 0-15 in Low Income Families on 31/8/2012 (Source: HMRC) England average East Midlands average In 2012/2013 (relative) child poverty in Great Britain, against the headline targets in the Child Poverty Act 2010, was at the lowest level for 30 years. However, in a report to parliament in October 2014 (State of the Nation 2014) the Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission concluded that most independent experts expect poverty to rise significantly over the next few years as benefit cuts begin to affect the incomes of families in the bottom half of the income distribution In Northamptonshire, key child poverty indicators such as the percentage of children (aged 0-15) in low income families and % children in workless households indicate an improvement in recent years, in line with the national trend The Children in Low-Income Families local measure shows the proportion of children living in families in receipt of out-of-work (means-tested) benefits or in receipt of tax credits where their reported income is less than 60 per cent of UK median income. In 2012 (latest data) 15.8% of children in Northamptonshire were in low income families compared to 16.6% in In 2012, the county sat below both the England (19.2%) and East Midlands (18.2%) averages and in a middling position compared to the comparator LEP local authorities (ranging from 11.2% to 23.8%). However, the percentage of children in low income families ranges from a high of 20.7% in Corby (above the England average) to a low of 6.1% in South Northamptonshire. Northamptonshire sat 3 rd highest in terms of percentage, out of the 8 comparator LEP local authorities. 66 P a g e

67 Sample size too small NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2015 Workless households are at significantly higher risk of being in poverty, so this is a measure of progress in tackling one of the underlying drivers of poverty (though not all workless households are poor, and many working households are poor) (State of the Nation 2013, Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission). A workless household is a household that contains at least one person aged 16 to 64, where no-one aged 16 or over is in employment % Children in Workless Households, Jan-Dec 2013 (Source: ONS) England average East Midlands average In % of children in North Northamptonshire (Corby, East Northamptonshire, Kettering and Wellingborough) and 10.6% of children in West Northamptonshire (Daventry, Northampton and South Northamptonshire) lived in workless households. Both areas of the county sat below the England average of 14.0% and equal to or below the East Midlands average of 12.4% and a low to middling position compared to the comparator LEP local authorities (ranging from 6.4% to 21.2%). The percentage of children in workless households in North Northamptonshire increased from 10.6% to 12.4% between 2012 and 2013, whereas the percentage of children in "workless households" in West Northamptonshire decreased significantly from 15.5% to 10.6%. In North Northamptonshire, the biggest increase was seen in the district of East Northamptonshire (from 6.4% in 2012 to 14.1% in 2013). Social mobility relies on young people having better opportunities to progress. As already noted the skill levels in Northamptonshire and the levels of earnings currently lags behind the East midlands and England averages and this has an impact on social mobility. Although at the same time Northamptonshire has above the East Midlands and England average employment rates so this brings benefits as less people are unemployed. To enhance social mobility in the county the skills levels and levels of earnings need to improve, whilst at the same time retaining the high levels of employment which currently exist. 67 P a g e

68 2.5.1 The early years school readiness The early years are influential in shaping future prospects [...] By the age of four a development gap of more than year and a half has opened up between the most disadvantaged children and the most advantaged children [...] Two-thirds of five year olds eligible for free school meals in England do not achieve a good level of development and so are not school ready [...] This matters because school readiness at age five has a strong impact on future educational attainment and life chances [...] Parenting has a bigger influence on a child s life chances in the early years than education, wealth or class (State of the Nation 2014, Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission). % All pupils achieving at least the expected standard in all early learning goals in 2014 (Early Years Foundation Stage Profile teacher assessments) (Source: DfE) England average East Midlands average The proportion of pupils eligible for free school meals (FSM) achieving at least the expected standard in all early learning goals (Early Years Foundation Stage Profile teacher assessments) in Northamptonshire increased from 31% in 2013 to 37% in Northamptonshire remains below the England average of 42% (2014), but in line with the East Midlands average (37%). Telford and Wrekin % Pupils achieving at least the expected standard in all early learning goals in 2014 (Early Years Foundation Stage Profile teacher assessments) (Source: DfE) Shropshire Swindon England Cumbria Northamptonshire East Midlands Gloucestershire Herefordshire Wiltshire Percentage of pupils known to be eligible for free school meals Percentage of all other pupils The FSM attainment gap in Northamptonshire (percentage point gap between pupils eligible for free school meals and all other pupils) was 20% in 2014; 1% higher (worse) than the England average but 2% lower (better) than the East Midlands average. In 2014 the FMS attainment gap in Northamptonshire was 1% higher (worse) than in Across Northamptonshire the percentage of all pupils achieving at least the expected standard in all early learning goals in 2014 ranged from a low of 48% in Wellingborough to a high of 64% in South Northamptonshire (see chart to the left). Wellingborough, Corby, Northampton and Kettering sit below (worse than) the England average of 58%, whereas Daventry and East Northamptonshire are equal to the England average and South Northamptonshire is above average. 68 P a g e

69 2.5.2 Child Poverty Indicators: National Child Measurement Programme The National Child Measurement Programme (NCMP) measures the weight and height of children in reception class (aged 4 to 5 years) and year 6 (aged 10 to 11 years) to assess overweight children and obese levels within primary schools. This data can be used at a national level to support local public health initiatives and inform the local planning and delivery of services for children. Children's heights and weights are measured and used to calculate a Body Mass Index (BMI) centile. The measurement process is overseen by trained healthcare professionals in schools. Defining children as overweight or obese is a complex process, given that their height and weight change at the same time. An individual's BMI is calculated by dividing their weight (expressed in kilograms) by the square of their height (expressed in metres). The indicators which populate the NCMP are also part of the child poverty basket of indicators and are therefore valuable for analysis. Below are tables which illustrate the prevalence of underweight, healthy weight, overweight and obese children at reception age and year 6 in Northamptonshire, compared to the England and East Midlands averages in 2013/14 (PHOF). Indicator Northamptonshire England East Midlands Reception: prevalence of underweight 1.06% 0.95% 0.99% Reception: prevalence of healthy weight 77.50% 76.50% 77.30% Reception: prevalence of overweight (inc. obese) 21.40% 22.50% 21.70% Reception: prevalence of obesity 8.70% 9.50% 8.90% Indicator Northamptonshire England East Midlands Year 6: prevalence of underweight 1.35% 1.36% 1.46% Year 6: Prevalence of healthy weight 67.80% 65.10% 66.30% Year 6: prevalence of overweight (inc. obese) 30.90% 33.50% 32.20% Year 6: prevalence of obesity 16.70% 19.10% 18.10% At reception level Northamptonshire compares well to the national and East Midlands averages in terms of the prevalence of healthy weight (higher than both), prevalence of overweight (lower than both) and prevalence of obesity (lower than both). Unfortunately at reception level Northamptonshire has a prevalence of underweight average which is higher than both the England and East Midlands averages. At year 6 level, Northamptonshire compares well to both the national and East Midlands averages on all the indicators. There is a lower prevalence of underweight children, a higher prevalence of healthy weight and lower levels of overweight and obese children. 69 P a g e

70 2.5.3 Child Poverty Indicators: Teenage Pregnancy Another key indicator in the basket of child poverty is teenage pregnancy. The Public Health England Sexual and Reproductive Health Profiles give a selection of teenage pregnancy related indicators: such as the under 18 s conception rate, the under 16 s conception rate, the under 18 s conceptions leading to abortion and the under 18 s birth rate. All of these indicators are illustrated for Northamptonshire, the East midlands and England in the table below. Indicator Northamptonshire England East Midlands Under 18's conception rate (per 1000) Under 16's conception rate (per 1000) Under 18's conceptions leading to abortion (%) 51.50% 51.10% 45% Under 18's births rate (per 1000) P a g e Northamptonshire performs well on under 18 conceptions, with a rate of 23.6 per 1000, which is lower than both the England and East Midlands averages. On under 16 conceptions however the opposite is true, with Northamptonshire s rate of 5.7 per 1000 being higher than both the England and East Midlands averages. In terms of the percentage of under 18 conceptions which lead to abortion, Northamptonshire s score of 51.5% is slightly above the England average and significantly higher than the East Midlands average. With regard to the under 18 s birth rate, Northamptonshire s rate of 8.4 per 1000 is higher than the England average but lower than the East Midlands average Child Poverty Indicators: Children in Need (CIN) A child in need is one who has been referred to children s social care services, and who has been assessed, usually through an initial assessment, or a continuous assessment, to be in need of social care services. Children in need are therefore a key indicator related to social mobility and child poverty. Throughout 2013/14 there were 10,541 children in need in Northamptonshire according to the national and local authorities tables, with 6,612 of these starting an episode of need in 2013/14 and 5,775 ending an episode of need in 2013/14. In total there were 4,766 children in need at the 31 st March 2014 in Northamptonshire. Rate of children in Rate of children starting an need throughout episode of need in per 10,000 children per 10,000 children Rate of children ending an episode of need in per 10,000 children Rate of children in need at 31 March 2014 per 10,000 children Area England East Midlands Northamptonshire The rates of children in need for Northamptonshire compared to England and the East Midlands are shown on the right. The rate of CIN in 2013/14 in Northamptonshire is lower than the England average, but higher than the East Midlands average. The rate for CIN starting an episode in Northamptonshire is larger than both the England and East Midlands averages, as is the rate of CIN episodes ending. The rate of CIN as of the 31 st March 2014 is lower in Northamptonshire than both the England and East Midland averages.

71 2.5.5 Improving attainment of the poorest children The most disadvantaged are still far more likely to fail to achieve 5 good GCSEs than other children [...] 6 in 10 poor children don t achieve the basics at GCSE [...] This matters because those with a low level of educational attainment are 4 times as likely to be in poverty than those with a high level (State of the Nation 2014, Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission). Gaps in educational attainment of disadvantaged children and young people in Northamptonshire, the East Midlands, England and Northamptonshire s statistical comparators are illustrated below. It is clear that there exists a large gap in the attainment of disadvantaged children in Northamptonshire compared to other pupils, with 36.4% of disadvantaged children attaining 5+ A*-C grades at GCSE level compared 67.8% for all other pupils. It is also apparent that disadvantaged children in Northamptonshire do not perform well compared to the regional, national and statistical comparators, with Northamptonshire performing worse than all the comparators except Telford and Wrekin and worse than the England and East Midlands. Although this trend is not just specific to disadvantaged children, as Northamptonshire also has the lowest attainment levels for all other pupils compared to the statistical comparators, the East Midlands and England Disadvantaged pupils All other Pupils All pupils Location Percentage achieving 5+ A*-C grades Percentage achieving 5+ A*-C grades Percentage achieving 5+ A*-C grades Telford and Wrekin Northamptonshire Swindon Wiltshire Cumbria Gloucestershire East Midlands Shropshire England Herefordshire, County of P a g e

72 2.5.6 Moving to the world of work Disadvantaged young people are over twice as likely to be unemployed or inactive [...] The period is a make-or-break time for children as they transition from school to work. Successful moves lead to jobs with training and post-16 qualifications that employers value, protecting against worklessness and low earnings in adulthood [...] When it goes badly the cost is wasted talent, unfulfilled aspirations and increased poverty [...] This matters because young people have been disproportionately impacted by the recession and are not faring as well in the economic recovery (State of the Nation 2014, Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission). In terms of long-term youth unemployment the JSA data outlined in the previous section illustrates that Northamptonshire has higher JSA claimants than its statistical comparator authorities in all age groups. In respect to JSA rates compared to England: Northamptonshire has less year olds by 0.1%, the same percentage of year olds, and less and year olds (see page 56). Availability and level of apprenticeships is another key feature of getting young people into the world of work. The levels of apprentice starts in the county are shown in the chart beneath. The level of apprenticeships has seen a reasonably sustained increase since 2006 up until 2012/13. Although there has also been a significant drop in the take up in 2013/14 compared to 2012/13. The level of apprenticeships from August 2014 to January 2015 has been 3,630, which suggests that if this was indicative of the take up for the full year, 2014/15 should see an increase in the level of take up compared to 2013/14. The significant disclaimer to this however is that if the majority of apprenticeships start at the beginning of the academic year, then this increase may not materialise in P a g e

73 2.5.7 Moving up the income ladder The UK has a chronic problem of low pay endured by five million Britons one in five workers who earn below 7.50 an hour [...] The UK is one of the worst performers in the OECD, measured on its share of full-time employees in low-paid work [...]. These figures help to explain why twice as many poor children are now in working families than in workless families, and why wages have become a stronger predictor of child poverty than the number of hours worked. Without action, the chasm between low-income families and the rest of the population will become ever wider, with profound implications in the short term for child poverty rates and in the longer term for the prospects of Britain becoming a more socially mobile society. (State of the Nation 2014, Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission). Change in levels of earnings Pay by Northamptonshire workplaces is below the national and regional average. In 2014 the estimated median, gross weekly earnings of fulltime workers in Northamptonshire workplaces was This sits below both the England ( ) and East Midlands ( ) averages and, compared to the local authority areas that make up the LEP comparators, sits in 6 th place out of 8 (i.e. in bottom three). Six out of the seven county districts and boroughs are below the England average ranging from a low of in Wellingborough workplaces to a high of in South Northamptonshire. There is also a difference between workplace based earnings and resident earnings: average gross resident earnings in Northamptonshire are 495 per week, which is below the England average ( 523.6) and the East Midlands average ( 483.4). Resident based earnings are significantly higher than workplace based earnings in Northamptonshire (by per week) which indicates that there must be a number of people who commute elsewhere and get paid more than those who commute into Northamptonshire. The most likely explanation for this is due to Northamptonshire s proximity to London, where average earnings are significantly higher. Over the last four years (2011 to 2014), the average annual percentage change in the median, gross weekly earnings of full-time workers in Northamptonshire workplaces has been 0.8% (compared to 1.3% England and 1.4% East Midlands averages), not taking into account the rate of inflation. Most recently, between 2013 and 2014, it is estimated that pay by Northamptonshire workplaces actually reduced by 3.1%, whereas it increased slightly in England (0.6%) the East Midlands (0.6%). The Children in Low-Income Families local measure shows the proportion of children living in families in receipt of out-of-work (means-tested) benefits or in receipt of tax credits where their reported income is less than 60 per cent of UK median income. In 2012 (latest data) 15.8% of children in Northamptonshire were in low income families compared to 16.6% in In 2012, the county sat below both the England (19.2%) and East Midlands (18.2%) averages and in a middling position compared to the comparator LEP local authorities (ranging from 11.2% to 23.8%). However, the percentage of children in low income families ranges from a high of 20.7% in Corby (above the England average) to a low of 6.1% in South Northamptonshire. Northamptonshire sat 3 rd highest in terms of percentage, out of the 8 comparator LEP local authorities. In terms of job types/opportunities and occupation levels in Northamptonshire the largest increase has been in the percentage of professional occupations (+3.7%). This is 0.8% bigger than the Great Britain percentage change and 0.7% bigger than the East Midlands. The second biggest increase was in caring, leisure and other service occupations (+0.9%); although this was 0.4% less than the Great Britain average change it was 0.3% better than the East Midlands. Sales and customer service occupations are equal second in terms of percentage increase in Northamptonshire (+0.9%). This is significant as the Great Britain (-.6%) and East Midlands (-0.2%) scores are both negative. The biggest decrease in Northamptonshire occupations was in process plant and machine operatives (-2.2%). This is a decrease of more than both Great Britain (1.3%) and the East Midlands (0.8%). The second largest decrease in occupation group was skilled trade occupations (-1.8%). This change is by more than Great Britain (-0.4%) but by less than the East Midlands (- 2%). 73 P a g e

74 2.6 SWOT Analysis Strengths A significant strength in Northamptonshire is that Job Seekers Allowance claimants have been going down annually by a large amount. Another key strength for younger people is that there are a low percentage of children (age 0-15) in low income and workless households compared to England. Perhaps the biggest strength in Northamptonshire is the number of employed people. The employed population aged in Northamptonshire is 77% which compares well to the England average. Opportunities The percentage of people in the county employed in professional occupations is increasing by more than any other group. There is potential to up skill the Northamptonshire population to continue to change the jobs market in the county. Targeting jobs and employment for year olds is a priority as this group is the largest proportion of unemployment and represents the future workforce. Creating jobs for these young people is of paramount importance for preventing the net migration of year olds continuing. Retaining graduates through attractive well paid and highly skilled jobs as well as attracting them to university in Northamptonshire is a key priority. The use of Pupil Premium funding is a key opportunity for education services in Northamptonshire. Utilising this has the potential to increase skills levels at all the age ranges and throughout schools. Weaknesses Threats Northamptonshire s skills profile is a significant weakness for the county. Northamptonshire s skills profile for NVQ1, NVQ2, NVQ3 and NVQ4 is behind the England average. Also related to the skills profile, there are less people in Northamptonshire with at least degree level qualifications compared to the England average. This is exacerbated by there also being high levels of people in Northamptonshire with no qualifications compared to England. Despite the high levels of employment in Northamptonshire, a weakness is that there are high levels of unemployment in the year old age group. Another weakness is the gap in attainment between free school meals and non free school meals students. The free school meals students verses non free school meals students attainment gap is behind England at both key stage 2 and key stage 4. One of the most significant threats in Northamptonshire is that there is a net migration of year olds in Northamptonshire. This has significant implications for the make up of the workforce. A more recent threat is that Job Seeker Allowance claimants have been increasing since December This is however despite big annual decreases in JSA claimants. There is a decreasing working age population relative to the entire population. This is resulting in an ageing population demographic with a higher dependency ratio. 74 P a g e

75 Chapter 3: Contents Chapter 3: Housing 3.1 Current Housing Stock: Overview 3.3 Affordability, Need and Demand This section assesses some of the key features of Northamptonshire s housing stock, based on the following indicators: - Total dwellings - Private housing stock as a % of all dwellings - Social housing stock as a % of all dwellings - % of vacant dwellings and second homes - Council tax band distribution - Number of statutory homeless households This section assesses the affordability, need and demand of housing in the county. The key indicators analysed are: - Median house price - Mean house price - House price predictions - Interest rates - Expenditure on mortgages and rent - Mortgage and landlord possession claims - Housing tenure - Number of sales - Lower quartile house prices to lower quartile earnings 3.2 House Building 3.4 SWOT Analysis This section outlines the house building levels in Northamptonshire and all the districts contained within it. It focuses on the following topics: - District level house building - House building compared to statistical comparators This section summarises the key issues from the LEA Housing Chapter and outlines the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats related to the housing market in Northamptonshire. 75 P a g e

76 Key Statistics: Northamptonshire Current housing stock (2011 Census) Total number of dwellings 287,730 Owned outright 29.1% Owned with mortgage or loan 38.7% Shared ownership 0.9% Social rented (LA) 8.3% Social rented 6.9% Private rented (letting agency or landlord) 13.4% Private rented (other) 1.2% Living rent free 1.3% House building data (NNJPU and WNJPU AMR s and Core Strategies) North Northamptonshire 2011/ /14: total 3,749 houses built (1,141 behind the strategic plan) North Northamptonshire construction forecast : 15,638 houses West Northamptonshire 2010/ /13: total 2,399 houses built (3,601 less than in the Core Strategy) West Northamptonshire construction forecast : 14,856 houses Total planned construction forecast : 30,494 houses There is also a target of 80,000 houses to be built by 2031 in the SEP Affordability, need and demand (Land Registry) Average house price all types Jan 2015: 150,584 (+8.42% yearly change) House Price Index: (+8.4 yearly change) Ratio of lower quartile house price to lower quartile earnings Q3 2013: 6.43 (- 2.5% yearly change) Number of sales Nov 2013: 1041 (-15.23% yearly change) Northamptonshire compares well to statistical comparators in terms of house building: the biggest relative increase of house building 2012 Q3 2014Q3 (compared to Cumbria, Gloucestershire, Swindon and Wiltshire and The Marches Enterprise Partnerships) 76 P a g e

77 3.1 Current Housing Stock: Overview The number of dwellings in Northamptonshire as per the most recent census (2011) 1 is illustrated in the graph on the left, split by district. The 287,730 dwellings registered in the census are distributed across the districts, with a high proportion concentrated in Northampton. The percentage of private housing stock of all dwelling is displayed in the graph on the right. It is clear that certain districts have a high reliance of the private sector for housing stock. South Northamptonshire has nearly 90% private housing (the highest district level). Compared to the East Midlands average South Northamptonshire, East Northamptonshire, Kettering and Daventry all have significantly higher levels of private housing stock. Corby has the lowest levels of private housing stock with only just over 78% (lower than the East Midlands and England averages). 1 ONS P a g e

78 The number of registered social landlord housing stock according to the 2011 census 2 is displayed in the graph on the left. The highest levels occur in Wellingborough, with 0.18% (around three times the East Midlands average). The levels of social landlord housing stock are higher than the East Midlands and England averages in Wellingborough, Daventry, East Northamptonshire and South Northamptonshire. There are particularly low levels in Kettering, Northampton and Corby. The percentage of vacant dwellings and second homes are shown in the graph on the right. The levels of vacant dwellings and second homes in Northamptonshire are very low compared to the regional and national averages. This is the case for all districts contained within the county, apart from Kettering, which is around the same level as England. 2 ONS P a g e

79 Council Tax Band Distribution in Northamptonshire The distribution of the dwelling stock by council band is illustrated in the graph on the left (as per the 2011 Census 3 ). Band A is the lowest and band H is the highest. It is clear that there are certain areas such as South Northamptonshire and Daventry which contain a high number of the upper bands. Corby has the highest proportion of the lower council tax bands. The number of statutory homelessness cases recorded in the census is shown in the graph on the right. It is very clear that the vast majority are based in Northampton (around 500). The only other district in the county which had more than 100 cases of homelessness is Wellingborough. 3 ONS P a g e

80 3.2 House building The target for new homes in Northamptonshire is for a total of 37,000 new homes to be built by 2021, rising to 80,000 by Anticipated levels of house building are set within the North Northamptonshire and West Northamptonshire Core Spatial Strategies. Annual Monitoring Reports outline local performance/changes. The effects of the recession and prolonged downturn have been a key factor in respect of performance in recent years which has seen a shortfall in term of house building compared to projections. The Annual Monitoring Reports provide the most rigorous counting of house building levels. However, in-between time, quarterly estimates are submitted by each local authority to Government (CLG). This gives some indication of house building levels, but should only be seen as a guide as tend to be an underestimation of actual levels and subject to change by the time the annual return is collated. Figures to end September 2014 indicate that 590 houses were reported to CLG as having been built in Northamptonshire from August to September 2014, against the annual 2014/15 target of 3,631 for the county. This equates to around 16% of the annual target level being built within this quarter. In North Northamptonshire the Core Spatial Strategy (CSS) was adopted in 2008 to provide the strategic development framework for the area, Within this housing requirements were adopted consistent with the former East Midlands Regional Plan. However, this plan was revoked in April 2013 with local authorities given greater control over the identification of housing requirements consistent with the provisions of the NPPF. On account of these changes, the NNJPU and local authorities have worked together to produce an Interim Housing Statement (IHS) which provides an objective assessment of housing needs across the area to 2021 in accordance with the NPPF and adopted CSS (superseding adopted CSS targets in the process). As a consequence, all authorities in North Northamptonshire have adopted the IHS targets as the basis for assessing housing land supply pending the submission of the revised Joint Core Strategy (JCS). This means that unlike West Northamptonshire, the trajectories overleaf only run to 2021 consistent with the plan period of the adopted CSS albeit examination of the JCS is programmed for November 2015 after which, when adopted, new development plan targets will exist for each local authority to In the subsequent sections house building levels and projected levels are outlined at district level. It must be acknowledged that building more houses, whilst essential for the local economy in terms of keeping housing affordable and increasing supply, results in additional pressures as well. Building more houses generally results in a bigger population, which puts pressures on all aspects of public services: school places, healthcare demand, road usage, social care demand and a plethora of other areas will all therefore almost certainly see increases in demand due to more people moving into these new houses. The potential impacts of building new houses are outlined in the Creating Sustainable Communities: Planning Obligations Framework and Guidance Document. 4 NEP Strategic Economic Plan 80 P a g e

81 3.2.1 District Level House Building: Corby 5 The number of houses built in Corby compared to the planned levels and annual requirement is illustrated beneath. This trajectory shows that the level of housing completions is projected as remaining below the strategic requirement (Interim Housing Statement) between Similar to the other authorities comprising North Northants, there is an anticipated increase in completions post on account of improving economic conditions and the continuing development, including at the Priors Hall urban extension with the Borough expected to meet its strategic requirements overall ( ). Note: The annual housing forecasts relate to the NPPF definition of deliverable housing sites and are based upon evidence provided during the summer of 2013 by developers and promoters of individual sites. 5 Corby 2014 AMR 81 P a g e

82 3.2.2 District Level House Building: East Northamptonshire 6 The number of houses built in East Northamptonshire compared to the planned levels and annual requirement is illustrated in the graph below. As the trajectory shows, between the level of housing completions is projected as remaining below the strategic requirement (Interim Housing Statement). From onwards house building is projected to increase, similar to the other authorities comprising North Northants, with the District anticipated to exceed its annual (and overall) requirements in the process, Note: The annual housing forecasts relate to the NPPF definition of deliverable housing sites and are based upon evidence provided during the summer of 2013 by developers and promoters of individual sites. 6 East Northamptonshire 2014 AMR 82 P a g e

83 3.2.3 District Level House Building: Kettering 7 Below is the number of houses built in Kettering compared to the planned levels and the annual requirement. Similar to Wellingborough, between , this trajectory shows that actual completions in Kettering Borough were lower than the strategic requirement (Interim Housing Statement) although this was expected to change in 2013/14 with an excess anticipated followed by strong growth for the remaining assessment period with an overall attainment in excess of annual requirements expected. As in Wellingborough, improving economic conditions, together with new house building at the Kettering East SUE are facilitating these projections. Note: The annual housing forecasts relate to the NPPF definition of deliverable housing sites and are based upon evidence provided during the summer of 2013 by developers and promoters of individual sites. 7 Kettering 2014 AMR 83 P a g e

84 3.2.4 District Level House Building: Wellingborough 8 The data in this section comes from a range of different sources including North Northamptonshire Joint Planning Unit and West Northamptonshire Joint Planning Unit. Consequentially, not all the same data is available about each district. This means the exact same variables cannot be compared for every district, but where possible this has been done. On the left is a trajectory which outlines the level of new housing built (and expected to be built) across Wellingborough between alongside the annualised strategic requirement the Borough needs attain (as set through the Interim Housing Statement). As can be seen, between , levels of house building have been below strategic requirements. However, from onwards, this is anticipated to increase over the remaining assessment period as economic conditions improve and delivery commences on strategic sites, such as the Wellingborough East urban extension, facilitating attainment of annual (and overall) requirements in the process, Note: The annual housing forecasts relate to the NPPF definition of deliverable housing sites and are based upon evidence provided during the summer of 2013 by developers and promoters of individual sites. 8 Wellingborough 2014 AMR 84 P a g e

85 3.2.5 District Level House Building: South Northamptonshire 9 The number of houses built compared to the number of dwellings with planning permission and the house building targets are shown in the graph on the left. It is clear that number of completions is far exceeded by the number of potential dwelling with planning permission from 2008 to 2013/14. The housing targets from 2014 onwards are higher than the number of actual completions in the previous years, but these increases are not overly dramatic: for example the target for is 385 compared to 333 actual completions in The housing requirement for South Northamptonshire is illustrated in the graph on the right. There is a large number required in the first period ( ) which reduces by more than half in the subsequent two five year periods. 9 South Northamptonshire Housing Supply P a g e

86 3.2.6 District Level House Building: Daventry 10 The actual number of house building completions compared to the projected levels in Daventry is shown in the graph below. It is evident that from 2008 onwards there is a significant drop in the number of houses built. In reality this is a trend which is shown across the districts, and is almost certainly a result of the economic recession. The number of projected completions compared to actual completions is only available for 2011/12 and 2012/13 and in both years the number of actual is lower than the number of projected, but not by a great deal. From 2014 onwards the projected number of house building increases by a dramatic amount. For example the actual number of completions in 2013/14 was less than 100, but the projected level for 2015/16 is more than four times higher (around 450). 10 Daventry 5 Year Housing Land Supply P a g e

87 3.2.7 District Level House Building: Northampton 11 The level of house building in Northampton is the only district which has seen housing targets equalled by actual completions between From the target for number of house completions was 1,724 and the number of actual completions in this period was 1,773. This means that actual completions exceeded the target for the period by 2.84%. Historical targets verses completions are not available prior to this period. The house building targets for 2011 to 2019 are illustrated in the graph on the left. House building targets increase year on year for the period with substantial increases. For example the 2015/16 level of around 1,400 is more than three times the 2011/12 level of around Northampton 5 year Housing Land Supply P a g e

88 3.2.8 House Building: Northamptonshire compared to statistical comparators 12 The following graph illustrates the number of permanent dwellings started and completed by five local enterprise partnerships. The four local enterprise partnerships on the graph other than Northamptonshire are the closest statistical comparators as defined by Oxford Economics based on employment and population. Over the two year time period 2012 quarter 3 to 2014 quarter 3 it is noticeable that Northamptonshire (the purple line) has seen a sustained increase in dwellings completed, apart from in 2013 quarter one where it decreased slightly. Northamptonshire compares well relative to the other local enterprise partnerships, going from the third highest in terms of dwellings completed in 2012 quarter 3 to the second highest in 2014 quarter 3 (and only very slightly behind Swindon and Wiltshire, the highest). The gap between the levels in Northamptonshire and the local enterprise partnerships beneath it in 2012 quarter 2 (The Marches and Cumbria) also increases over the period. What this tells us is that even though house building completions in Northamptonshire have been (in the vast majority of districts) lower than the planned levels, relative to other similar areas the levels have been competitive. 12 ONS Live Table 255a: permanent dwellings started and completed by tenure and local enterprise partnership 88 P a g e

89 3.3 Affordability, Need and Demand The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has reported the boost in housing market activity as being a central feature of the economic recovery which has taken hold in the UK during 2013'. Whilst, unsurprisingly London has experienced the biggest rise (pushing up the UK average), all UK regions bar one have seen an annual increase in house prices to some degree in Overall, house prices appear to have accelerated a little in 2013 and the number of house sales has increased. Following the onset of the economic downturn in 2008, house prices fell by around 14% annually. Most recent data from the Land Registry (December 2014) shows a continued rise in house prices. Recovery in the housing market has been a significant boost to economic recovery; however there are renewed fears of a housing bubble. Measures have been taken in recent months by the government to make it more difficult for households to take on greater quantities of housing-related debt and become less vulnerable to interest rate increases (ONS). Although house prices remain below the national average ( 150,634, vs. 177,766 in England and Wales), the annual increase for the county, re-calculated in December 2014, now stands at 8.12%, overtaking the national average of 6.99%. The median house price for Northamptonshire 13 and the localities within it are shown in the graph on the left. The median house price is a common measurement of house value as it is less biased than mean price (it is not as heavily influenced by small numbers of high or low priced sales). It is obvious that house prices in Northamptonshire have increased dramatically between 1996 and From 2008 to 2013 however there has been a slowing down of the market with average house prices in the county being consistently around the 150,000 mark. South Northamptonshire is consistently the highest median house price, with Daventry second throughout. House prices in Corby are the lowest throughout the period, although house prices in Kettering are now also at a similar level to Corby (both 125,000). 13 ONS 2014 Table P a g e

90 The mean house prices in Northamptonshire 14 are displayed in the graph beneath. Whilst mean house price is less commonly used as a measure than median, it is important to consider both as the difference shows where some significant outliers may be. The mean simply represents the total house prices added together and then divided by the number of values. In Northamptonshire the main difference between the mean and median house prices in Northamptonshire is that the mean is higher across the board, but especially in South Northamptonshire and Daventry. For example the mean house price in South Northamptonshire is 255,000 in 2013 compared to the median of 217,000. What this means is that the mean is being dragged up by small numbers of very expensive houses. The Northamptonshire mean house price is 181,000 compared to the median of 153,000 which means very expensive housing across the county is bringing up the mean price in this way. 14 ONS 2014 Table P a g e

91 3.3.1 Northamptonshire house prices for different types of houses The average house prices for different types of houses in Northamptonshire between are shown below. This illustrates how the average price for all houses in the county varies significantly for different types of houses. Detached houses are consistently around 100,000 more expensive than semidetached. Semi-detached are consistently more than terraced houses by around 25,000. Terraced houses are consistently around 20,000 more expensive than flats. 91 P a g e

92 3.3.2 Northamptonshire House Price Index (HPI) (Land Registry 2015) The House Price Index (HPI) is a standardised score allocated for house prices based on Land Registry s own data which consists of the transaction records of all residential property sales in England and Wales using repeat sales regression. This index excludes sales from repossessions and auctions as these do not represent the full market price. Northamptonshire s House Price Index (HPI) between March 2005 January 2015 and the monthly change are illustrated in the charts on the left. The impact of the recession on the HPI from the end of 2007 till June 2009 is significant: with the HPI dropping from in December 2007 to in June After June 2009 onwards there has been a steady recovery of the HPI: going from in June 2009 up to in January Whilst the HPI has been increasing steadily over this period there have been several months where it decreased (illustrated in the chart at the bottom) and it is still 17.5 points below the highest of in December P a g e

93 3.3.3 House Price Predictions Oxford Economics (2013) forecasts growth in house prices in Northamptonshire by 80% by It is therefore very likely that the trends that have been seen over the past 17 years will continue. The Oxford Economics predictions are displayed in the graph beneath. The baseline represents their most likely scenario, with upper and lower ranges also given to illustrate that the nature of predicting this far into the future means there could be significant variation around it (the range from the highest to lowest predictions in 2030 is around 99,000). The baseline is predicted to increase from 187,000 in 2015 to 337,000 in (The baseline of Oxford Economics predictions is different to the Land Registry baseline; this is due to a different methodology being used.) It must be acknowledged that these predictions are dependent on a number of extraneous variables that could change dramatically. Interest rates, house building levels, local and central government policies, the health of the economy, stage of economic cycle and a plethora of other factors will affect what happens. 93 P a g e

94 3.3.4 Interest Rates The Bank of England s Monetary Policy Committee voted on the 8 th of January 2015 to maintain the bank interest rate at 0.5%. The UK interest rate in the period 2001 to 2014 is illustrated in the graph beneath 15. The bank of England have kept this 0.5% rate since March 2009, it is the lowest rate since This is clearly in part a decision designed to stimulate the housing market. Low interest rates mean that mortgages are less expensive in terms of repayments. This coupled with the Government s Help to Buy 5% mortgage scheme will influence the housing market in terms of demand, which should help drive supply. 15 Trading Economics P a g e

95 3.3.5 Housing Expenditure 16 The following tables illustrate how expenditure on rent and mortgages has changed in the UK between 2011 and Expenditure on mortgages 1 by mortgage holders, 2011 to 2013 United Kingdom % of total 2 % of total 2 % of total expenditure expenditure expenditure Weighted number of households (thousands) 8,920 8,660 8,370 Total number of households in sample 1,950 1,840 1,580 Total number of persons in sample 5,570 5,270 4,600 Total number of adults in sample 3,910 3,680 3,170 Weighted average number of persons per household Total expenditure for mortgage payers 1, , Mortgage Mortgage interest payments Mortgage protection premiums Capital repayment of mortgage Expenditure on rent¹ by renters, 2011 to 2013 United Kingdom % of total 2 % of total 2 % of total expenditure expenditure expenditure Weighted number of households (thousands) 8,540 8,950 9,320 Total number of households in sample 1,760 1,760 1,640 Total number of persons in sample 4,050 4,070 3,840 Total number of adults in sample 2,890 2,920 2,750 Weighted average number of persons per household Total expenditure for renters Rent Gross rent less housing benefit, rebates and allowances received Net rent The expenditure on rent has gone up by 10.45% from 2011 to 2013 whereas expenditure on mortgages has only increased by 6.46% in the same period. This illustrates how rent is becoming more expensive due to demand increasing and the impact of low interest rates on mortgages preventing them increasing by the same level. This has implications for the Northamptonshire market as rent is becoming significantly more expensive and despite interest rates being so low, mortgage repayments are also becoming more expensive. Mortgage repayments increasing despite interest rates being low is concerning because this is against what you would expect to happen, however this can potentially be explained by the fact that the expenditure on mortgages have gone up as a percentage of expenditure, which means if expenditure decreased, even if mortgage repayments reduced in absolute terms, they could still go up as a percentage of expenditure. 16 ONS P a g e

96 3.3.6 Mortgage and landlord possession claims year to September 2014 Possession claims lodged at County Courts is an indicator used by housing and homelessness charity, Shelter, to estimate the number of households struggling to meet their housing costs and associated risk of eviction and repossession. Mortgage possession claims have been reducing in recent years, both for the County and nationally, coinciding with low interest rates, however this is one to watch as/when interest rates start to rise. This picture is reversed for landlord possession claims, coinciding with a national increase in number of renters. The most recent evictions and repossessions hotspots report from Shelter, based on mortgage and landlord possession claims data up until September 2014, highlights the following in Northamptonshire: Area Possession claims Possession rates Rank Rank Mortgage Landlord Mortgage Landlord Total Rank within within claims claims Total rate rate rate region England National Rank Corby in in 32 1 in Highest 20% Northampton in in 43 1 in Second highest 20% Wellingborough in in 42 1 in Second highest 20% East Northamptonshire in in 43 1 in Second highest 20% Kettering in in 48 1 in Middle 20% Daventry in in 68 1 in Second lowest 20% South Northamptonshire in in in Lowest 20% Corby has the highest rank within the county, 28 th out of 326 nationally (this is worse than Corby s Index of Multiple Deprivation, for which it is ranked 51 st out of 326). Northampton, Wellingborough and East Northamptonshire are all within the second highest 20% nationally. Kettering is in the middle 20% nationally (127 th out of 326). Daventry sits in the second lowest 20% at 229 th out of 326 and South Northamptonshire is in the lowest 20% 322 nd out of 326 nationally. Note: A mortgage or landlord possession claim is submitted by a mortgage lender or landlord to the courts to repossess a property. This is the first step in the court process and an early indication of an issue. The most common reason for seeking repossession is arrears of mortgage or rent. Please note that a large percentage of claims do not lead to repossession (70-80%) but are resolved through negotiation. 96 P a g e

97 3.3.7 Housing Tenure The distribution of housing type in Northamptonshire and districts by tenure type according to the 2011 census 17 is shown in the graph below. Overall trends indicate a high proportion of owned with a mortgage in the county (39%). A high proportion of people also own outright (29%). 13% in the county is private rented landlord or letting agency and 7% is social rented local authority housing. There are clear district variations such as high levels of owned properties in South Northamptonshire, high levels of social rented in Corby, high levels of private rented in Northampton. Similarly there are low levels of owned outright in Corby, owned with a mortgage or loan in Wellingborough, private rented in South Northamptonshire and low levels of social rented in East Northamptonshire. 17 Census P a g e

98 National trends in tenure type are shown in the graph beneath (English Housing Survey ). Two of the noticeable national trends in tenure type are that the proportion of people buying with a mortgage is decreasing and the number of private renters is increasing. This is primarily due to the recession meaning people are less likely to get a mortgage and more likely to rent. Despite this however, the proportion of people who own outright is increasing, which could be due to low interest rates allowing people to pay of mortgages more quickly. If these national trends are prevailing in Northamptonshire then tenure type in the county is likely to be changing the make up of the housing market in the future. 18 English Housing Survey P a g e

99 3.3.8 House Sales in Northamptonshire The number of sales in Northamptonshire 19 (right) and the boroughs within (bottom left) are displayed in the graphs on this page. In both Northamptonshire and the districts within it house sales show a similar pattern, increasing gradually between (with in year fluctuations), then decreasing dramatically in 2005 (from 3,800 sales in 2004 quarter 4 to 2,789 in Northamptonshire). From the first quarter of 2005 to the second quarter of 2007 there was a sustained increase in sales, followed by a dramatic decline up until 2009 quarter one (from 5,242 in 2007 quarter 2 to 1,256 in 2009 quarter one in Northamptonshire). From 2009 quarter one onwards there has been a steady recovery in the number of sales, although they still remain lower than even the 1996 starting point. At a borough level, it is noticeable that a high number of the sales are in Northampton, with the remaining districts experiencing pretty similar levels as of 2013 quarter two. This could be a reflection of the housing stock in Northampton, or of recent developments in the town. 19 ONS 2014 Table P a g e

100 3.3.9 House sales in Northamptonshire in 2014 The number of house sales in Northamptonshire since the beginning of 2014 up until Nov 2014 is shown in the graph below. There has been a steady rise in the number of house sales in the county up until August Despite this, there has been a slight decline in house sales in Northamptonshire since August The average monthly number of sales for this 11 month period is 1,134 compared to 922 in From this it can be deduced that the housing market is continuing to recover in the county, but the recovery is gradual and subject to fluctuations. This is strongly related to housing affordability which is analysed in the next section. 100 P a g e

101 Housing Affordability The ratio of lower quartile house price to lower quartile earnings for Northamptonshire 20 and the districts contained within it is shown in the graph below. This confirms that housing has become increasingly less affordable over the time period. The general trend for the county has been for the ratio of lower quartile house prices to lower quartile earnings to increase consistently from 1997 to 2005, plateau between 2005 to 2008 and substantially decrease between 2008 and From 2009 onwards the ratio has remained at a pretty consistent level. It is clear that the availability of affordable housing varies significantly across the county. South Northamptonshire has the highest ratio of lower quartile house prices to lower quartile earnings across the period, as does Daventry which is consistently the second highest. Corby has the most affordable housing using this measure throughout the time period. 20 ONS 2014 table P a g e

102 3.4 SWOT Analysis Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities The house building market in Northamptonshire compares well to statistical comparators in terms of dwellings started and completed. House prices are rising steadily in Northamptonshire: currently at 6.8% annually (higher than the national average of 6.4%). Ambitious house building targets could prevent house prices increasing by more than earnings: meaning more houses need to be built. North Northamptonshire and West Northamptonshire Core Spatial Strategies have been ambitious. 37,000 new homes are planned to be built by 2021, 80,000 by The economic recession has impacted significantly on the realisation of these targets as they are reliant on large numbers of houses being built by the private sector. The difference between the median and mean house price in the county is large, meaning expensive housing brings up the mean. Due to increases in house prices being larger than increases in earnings, housing in Northamptonshire is becoming less affordable. This is amplified by cost of rent and mortgage repayments also increasing in the county. The new Starter Homes Government initiative is a significant opportunity for Northamptonshire. These schemes involve a discount of 20% for first time buyers aged under the age of 40 for new builds on Brownfield sites. Identifying sites which fit the criteria in the county and building on these developments is a way of increasing affordable housing for young first time buyers. Threats In certain areas in the county the planned level of house building is more than double the 2012/13 rate in 2015/16. If house building levels are not met supply and demand means housing becomes less affordable. 102 P a g e

103 Contents Infrastructure & Connectivity Chapter 4: Infrastructure & Connectivity 4.1 Transport This section provides an insight into transport connectivity to major transport network access points, traffic volumes and rush hour congestion and travel to work patterns and preferences in terms of average distance travelled, out-commuting, mode and car/van access Transport connectivity Traffic volumes and congestion Getting to work 4.3 Commercial property This section provides a summary of a workspace assessment for Northamptonshire carried out by property consultants AspinallVerdi in 2013, covering availability and take-up in the office market (B1), industrial/distribution space market and demand for managed workspaces The office market (B1) The industrial/distribution space market (B2/B8) Managed workspaces Commercial property costs 4.2 Digital This section provides statistics on digital connectivity in terms of availability of Superfast Broadband and Next Generation Access in the County, Internet usage, as well as expected future deployment Superfast Broadband (SFBB) and Next Generation Access (NGA) availability Internet usage Future NGA deployment 4.4 Climate change This section highlights cost to business of impacts of climate change such as extreme weather events, with information about local flood risk and mitigating actions Local flood risk Mitigation 4.5 SWOT Analysis As a conclusion to the Infrastructure and Connectivity Chapter, this section provides a summary of the information contained within this chapter in the form of a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis. 103 P a g e

104 Key Statistics Infrastructure & Connectivity Transport % population within 1 hour drive of large airport, AM peak 67% 2011 % population within 30 minute drive of national or regional rail hub, AM peak 17% 2011 % population within 15 minute drive of major road junction, AM peak 58% 2011 % increase in traffic volumes 28.8% Average vehicle speeds on local authority managed A roads during weekday morning peak 29.9mph Oct-13 to Sept-14 Change in CO2 emissions from the road transport sector -9.9% Average distance travelled to work 10.3 miles 2011 % county residents who work outside of the county 18.2% 2013 % people who travel to work by cycling/walking 11.6% 2011 % people who travel to work by public transport 5.7% 2011 % households with no access to a car or van 18.9% 2011 % decrease in CO2 emissions from road transport sector -9.9% Comparison with respect to England/national value (where applicable): Better Similar Worse Digital Superfast Broadband availability (% premises) 75% Next Generation Access availability (% premises) 77% Median download speed of fixed broadband Median upload speed of fixed broadband Commercial property Availability of office space (B1) compared with competing locations Take-up of office space (B1) compared with competing locations Availability of industrial/distribution (B2/B8) space compared with competing locations Take-up of industrial/distribution (B2/B8) space compared with competing locations 14.3mbps 1.2mbps % adults aged 16+ who have ever used the Internet 88.5% lower lower similar lower Jun-13 to Jul-14 Jun-13 to Jul-14 Jun-13 to Jul-14 Jun-13 to Jul-14 Jan to Mar 2014 Jul-07 to Jul- 13 Jul-07 to Jul- 13 Jul-07 to Jul- 13 Jul-07 to Jul- 13 Rateable value of office space per square metre Rateable value of industrial space per square metre P a g e

105 4.1 Transport Transport connectivity Creating a transport system that supports economic growth is a policy priority within Northamptonshire s Local Transport Plan (Northamptonshire Transportation Plan, March 2012). The County s priorities include investment in roads and rail services (passenger and freight) to improve connections and reduce congestion and emissions, as well as improving public transport, cycle networks and low carbon infrastructure. Strategic Connectivity Map - Northamptonshire (Source: Northamptonshire Transportation Plan, March 2012) Northamptonshire s central location within England and connectivity to the country s largest economic centres (i.e. London and Birmingham) and International airports (inward and outbound business travel) is considered an advantage in terms its connectivity to other parts of the country and beyond and beneficial for both business travel and movement of freight. Experimental transport statistics (DfT) published in 2014 (2011 data) estimate average travel times to major transport network access points (destinations) - airports, larger stations and major road junctions - to enable measurement of transport connectivity in a nationally consistent way (DfT Transport Connectivity Statistics). Northamptonshire average travel times (minutes) to selected transport destinations, AM peak 2011 (07:00 10:00) (Source: DfT) (travel time in minutes) By car By public transport/walking Nearest large airport 57 (B ham) 108 (Luton) Nearest national hub or regional interchange rail station 42 (MK) 80 (MK) Nearest major road junction 22 (M1Jn15) n/a 105 P a g e

106 According to the statistics there are two large airports within an average 1 hour drive of the county (during the morning peak) (Birmingham 57 minutes and East Midlands 59 minutes) and a further three within a 2 hour drive (Luton 72 minutes, Stansted 94 minutes and Heathrow 106 to 111 minutes). The nearest national hub or regional interchange rail station is an average of 42 minutes drive (Central Milton Keynes) and the nearest major road junction (M1jn15) just 22 minutes away by car. % of population within specified travel time of a 'large' airport, AM peak, 2011 (Source: DfT) 1 hour by car 2 hours by public transport % of population within specified travel time of a national or regional rail hub, AM peak, 2011 (Source: DfT) 30 mins by car 1 hour by public transport % of population within specified travel time of a major road junction, AM peak, 2011 (Source: DfT) 15 mins by car Northamptonshire Northamptonshire Northamptonshire 58 East Midlands East Midlands East Midlands 33 England England England Connectivity to large airport (s): In comparison with the England and East Midlands averages, Northamptonshire fairs well in terms of the % of its population within 2 hours by public transport of a large airport but less well in terms of the % within a 1 hour drive. These statistics are based on travel times to the 15 British airports each having at least 1% of total terminal passengers in Connectivity to national or regional rail hub: In comparison with the England and East Midlands averages, Northamptonshire fairs less well in terms of the % of its population within a 30 minute drive and 1 hour by public transport of a national or regional rail hub. This difference is quite stark when comparing against the England average, but please bear in mind the London skew. However, the county fairs well in terms of it s connectivity by rail to/from major economic centres, London and Birmingham, in comparison to the group of comparator LEPs, having the shortest average travel times to London Euston of the comparator LEP group and second shortest to Birmingham New Street. These statistics are based on travel times for around 90 stations in Great Britain classed as national or regional hubs. Connectivity to major road junction: In comparison with the England and East Midlands averages, Northamptonshire fairs particularly well in terms of the % of its population within a 15 minute drive; almost double the England and East Midlands averages. These statistics are based on 122 selected road junctions which are on the Strategic Road Network and the strategic national corridors defined by DfT. Proximity to the M1 and M40 motorways, for example, is a major advantage in connecting with (to and from) the country s largest economic centres, London and Birmingham. 106 P a g e

107 Jul 07 Nov 07 Feb 08 May 08 Sep 08 Dec 08 Mar 09 Jun 09 Oct 09 Jan 10 Apr 10 Jul 10 Nov 10 Feb 11 May 11 Sep 11 Dec 11 Mar 12 Jun 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Nov 13 Feb 14 May 14 Sep 14 p NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT Traffic volumes and congestion Traffic volumes impact on journeys to work and the ability of businesses to attract the appropriately skilled staff, as well as business travel and the movement of freight. Since 1993 (to 2013) traffic volume (motor vehicle traffic vehicle miles) in Northamptonshire has increased by 28.8%, compared with a 17.1% average increase for England. By 2040 road traffic in England is forecast to be 46% higher than in 2010 (Road Transport Forecasts 2013, DfT). The graph opposite (left) provides an illustration of how traffic volumes may grow in Northamptonshire from 2014 to 2040 if they follow the forecasted national trend. Promoting modal shift in travelling to work and viable alternatives in terms of movement of freight is important in reducing inhibiting levels of congestion as well as protecting the environment. Rush hour congestion: An increase in road traffic implies an increase in congestion (measured as lost time) (Road Transport Forecasts 2013). In England, average vehicle speeds on local authority managed A roads have continued to fall over the last two and a half years (to end September 2014) (Transport Statistics Great Britain 2014, DfT). In the year ending September 2014, the average vehicle speed in England during the weekday morning peak (07:00 10:00) was 24.3mph, a 2.4% decrease on the year ending September In Northamptonshire, the average speed was higher (and Average speeds (miles per hour) during weekday morning peak (Source: DfT) Northamptonshire East Midlands England therefore better in congestion terms) at 29.9mph (provisional data) than the national *Predicted Traffic volume calculated by applying DfT Road Traffic Forecasts to the Northamptonshire figures from 2014 to 2040 average (24.3mph) in the year ending September 2014, with a fall of just 1.6% since the year ending September This equates to approximately just under 2 minutes per mile in terms of an average journey time (1.91 minutes in 2011/12 latest data, compared with 2.21 minutes per mile England average in 2011/12). Environmental impact: despite this increase in traffic, CO2 emissions are forecast to decline by around 15% from 2010 levels, reflecting fleet fuel efficiency improvements and use of bio-fuels (Road Transport Forecasts 2013). Between 2005 and 2012, for example, CO2 emissions from the road transport sector decreased by 9.9% in Northamptonshire (DECC), which is broadly in line with the national average (-10.3% in England). 107 P a g e

108 Corby Northampton Kettering W'borough Northants Daventry East Northants South Northants Distance (miles) NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT Getting to work Average distance travelled to work: On average residents aged 16 and over in Northamptonshire travel further to work than the England and East Midlands averages (10.3 miles to work on average compared to an England average of 9.3 miles and East Midlands average of 9.6 miles. Residents in South Northamptonshire travel an average of 12.8 miles to work which is the furthest average distance across the 7 districts and boroughs in the county. Residents of Northampton travel the shortest average distance to work at 8.5 miles. In addition to South Northamptonshire, the other predominantly rural districts of East Northamptonshire and Daventry travel the second and third furthest distances to work at 12 and 11.9 miles respectively. The largely rural nature and wide spread of urban centres of these three districts is the likely reason why people have to travel further in order to reach major centres of employment Average distance (miles) travelled to work (Source: ONS, Census 2011) % County working residents who work outside of the county (Source: ONS, 2011 Census) Where people travel to for work: On average 18.2% of the country s working residents work outside of the county. South Northamptonshire has the highest percentage of residents working outside of the county by far at 37.3%, which corresponds with its rural nature, higher than average distance travelled to work and lower than average jobs density (0.73, compared with 0.83 for the county, 0.79 England and 0.75 East Midlands average). The skills profiles of residents and type of job availability will also be a factor. East Northamptonshire and Daventry, also predominently rural in nature, have the second and third highest percentage of working residents working outside of the county. Unsuprisingly, The top 3 places outside of the county that county residents in the highest commuting areas commute to are as follows: South Northamptonshire - Milton keynes, Cherwell, Aylesbury Vale; East Northamptonshire - Bedford, Peterborough, Huntingdonshire; and Daventry - Rugby, Cherwell, Milton Keynes. 108 P a g e

109 Mode of travelling to work: At the time of the 2011 Census, the car was the main mode of travelling to work in Northamptonshire, with over three quarters of work journeys made using this method. This is some 13% higher than the national average, although it should be noted that the national data includes London, where a significant number of journeys will be undertaken by the Tube. Northamptonshire is just behind the national average in terms of walking or cycling to work, and in line with the national average for working at home. Working from home Public transport The three predominantly rural districts and boroughs have the highest work at/from home percentage. South Northamptonshire has the highest % of people who work at home 8.5%, which is well above the national average. In comparison, Corby has the lowest at 2.6% - Given lack of access to car this should be higher, although it may be that the jobs cannot be undertaken at home. Corby has the lowest % of people working from home but highest % of no access to car this has a double impact. Encouraging more people to work from home where possible. Public transport use remains relatively high (second highest in County) % of people using public transport to travel to work in Northamptonshire is 5.7% compared with the national average of 16.9%. Northampton has the highest % of public transport not surprising considering the most services and is largely urban Personal car/bike Lowest in Northampton, but given the alternatives and likely shorter travel distances, public bus/walking. Own steam (legs) Northamptonshire is below the national average for people travelling to work by walking or cycling (11.6% in Northamptonshire compared to 13.6% England average). The largely rural districts of Daventry, East Northamptonshire and South Northamptonshire have the lowest levels of travel to work using this method. 109 P a g e

110 Household access to car or van: 18.9% (54,835) of households in Northamptonshire have no access to a car or van (2011 Census). 4 Districts/Boroughs in the county have a higher % access than national average (South Northamptonshire, Daventry, East Northamptonshire and Kettering). Corby has highest % of no access (26.66%) closely followed by Northampton at 24%. Households in Northamptonshire with no access to a car or van The map on the right shows the % of households who do not have accessibility to a car or van, by Local Super Output Area (LSOA). The areas shown in orange indicate the LSOAs which have the highest percentage of unavailable car access. As the map shows, these LSOAs are mainly concentrated within the towns of Corby, Daventry, Kettering, Northampton and Wellingborough. The white areas show the LSOAs which have the lowest % of households with no access to car or van. These are predominantly within the rural areas of the county, and residents are more likely to be reliant on personal transport than in more urban areas as bus services or alternatives are infrequent or costly. 110 P a g e

111 NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT Digital Superfast Broadband (SFBB) and Next Generation Access (NGA) availability The economic impact of investing in greater broadband speeds is documented in the Government s UK Broadband Impact Study (2013) estimating that for every 1 of public intervention there would be a net economic impact return of 20 and a total net employment impact (direct and indirect) of approximately 56,000 UK jobs by Each local authority in England has been allocated funding to help provide 90% of homes and businesses with access to superfast broadband. There are in excess of 50 projects happening across the country to help make this happen; all at different slightly stages of development ( ). However, data collated by Ofcom provides an estimation of the current position across the country with regards to Superfast Broadband and Next Generation Access availability (% premises) based on a snap shot of data provided by the largest fixed broadband providers in the UK. In the UK superfast broadband was available to an estimated 75% of premises and Next Generation Access to 78% of premises in June 2014 (Ofcom Infrastructure Report 2014). Please note that Ofcom makes a clear distinction between NGA coverage and coverage of superfast broadband services because some premises have been upgraded to FTTC (Fibre-to-the-cabinet) and are therefore within the NGA coverage footprint but cannot all receive superfast speeds; typically due to the distance between the cabinet and the premises. In Northamptonshire, it is estimated by Ofcom that superfast broadband was available to 75% of premises and Next Generation Access to 77% of premises between June 2013 and July 2014, which appears to be broadly in line with the UK average. This puts Northamptonshire in 101 st place out of 200 Local Authorities in the UK in terms of availability of superfast broadband to premises and in 117 th place (out of 200) in terms of availability of Next Generation Access (1 being top); in both respects, in the 3 rd (to bottom) quartile. However, the % of premises with SSFB and NGA availability will have risen since July 2014 as the Superfast Northamptonshire project rolls out (see overleaf). When compared with the Local Authorities making up the comparator LEPs, Northamptonshire fairs reasonably well and above 5 out of the 7 other Local Authorities (see opposite). In Northamptonshire, Ofcom data estimated the median download speed of fixed broadband at 14.3 Mbps between June 2013 and July This compares to a high of 22.4 in Luton and a low of 6.9 in Herefordshire. The median upload speed was estimated at 1.2 Mpbs, compared to a high of 2 and low of 0.8 across England Superfast Broadband and Next Generation Access availability (% premises) by Local Authority, June 2013 to July 2014 (Source: Ofcom) SFBB Availability (% premises) NGA Availability (% premises) 111 P a g e

112 4.2.2 Internet usage An important consideration, alongside availability of broadband infrastructure, is the extent to which people use the Internet and therefore benefit from its availability. In Northamptonshire, the most recent data (January to March 2014) estimates that 88.5% of adults (aged 16+) have ever used the Internet and therefore 11.5% have never used the Internet. Northamptonshire s estimated Internet usage is slightly above the UK average of 87.2% and above the East Midlands average of 85.6%. The estimated Internet usage of those local authorities making up the comparator LEPs ranges from a high of 94.1% (Swindon) and a low of 86.3% (East Cumbria). Northamptonshire sits in 6 th (out of 9; 1 being highest usage) place amongst the comparator LEPs. With regards to superfast broadband, it is estimated by Ofcom that superfast broadband had a takeup of 21% of premises in the UK in June 2014 versus availability to 75% of premises (Ofcom Infrastructure Report 2014). Swindon Telford and Wrekin Gloucestershire Wiltshire Shropshire Northamptonshire UK West Cumbria Herefordshire East Cumbria East Midlands % of Internet users and non-users aged 16+ in Jan to Mar 2014 (Source: ONS) Ever used Never used Future NGA deployment Target: Next Generation Access for all Northamptonshire premises by end of Commercial coverage (existing & planned) Superfast Stage 1 Superfast Stage 2 Expected to serve 230,000 premises (72%) by 2017 based on a forecast of commercial plans in Broadband infrastructure contract with BT funded by Northamptonshire County Council, Broadband Delivery UK (BDUK) and BT, providing access to over 50,100 premises by end Second contract with BT providing access to a further 20,465, as well as other initiatives in support of the county s full coverage target. Northamptonshire s aspiration is for Next Generation Access to be available to all premises in the county by the end of 2017 (90% by end of 2015). Superfast Northamptonshire commenced in 2013 and is being achieved through a mixture of public and private investment in infrastructure. Public funds have been secured to provide 22.3% (70,565) of premises in the county with Next Generation Access with the first customers being connected in February Existing and planned commercial coverage by telecoms providers is expected to provide coverage to around 229,600 premises by 2017 (72% towards the target). This leaves 5.7% of premises, where alternative options are being sought to meet the 2017 target. Similar projects are underway in other areas of the UK. 112 P a g e

113 In the comparator LEP areas, with Cumbria is aiming for 95% of coverage by end of 2017 ( Wiltshire 91% to 95% of coverage by 2016 ( 88% of premises in Gloucestershire by the end of 2015 and 85% premises in Herefordshire by the end of 2016 (100% by end of 2018) ( In the meantime, 22 cities across the UK are working towards super-connected status with Mbps broadband access ( ). Map of expected Next Generation Access deployment in Northamptonshire to P a g e

114 4.3 Commercial property A workspace assessment for Northamptonshire was carried out by property consultants AspinallVerdi in 2013, establishing a baseline assessment of the commercial property market (Use Class B - B1, B2 and B8) in Northamptonshire in terms its comparative supply and demand. This was included in the 2014 Local Economic Assessment. The below information provides a summary of findings. For further detail, please refer to the full document: Northamptonshire Workspaces Assessment Stage 1. The comparative supply (availability) and demand (take-up) of commercial property provides an important benchmark in terms of the county s competitiveness, both in retaining existing businesses and attracting new businesses and therefore jobs. For the purpose of the Northamptonshire Workspaces Assessment comparator areas were chosen by AspinallVerdi on the basis that they pose significant competition within close proximity to the county s main towns The office market (B1) The Northamptonshire Workspaces Assessment concluded that the office market in Northamptonshire is small compared to locations such as Milton Keynes. At the time of the assessment (2013), it was estimated that there were approximately 1,156,366 sqft available across 175 units in the county compared with 365 units in the city of Milton Keynes. For example, the graph opposite shows that 317,595 sqft of B1 office space was in Northampton, in contrast to 2,092,392 sqft in Milton Keynes. As the key office location in the county, Northampton is chosen for comparison. Northampton has less availability than neighbouring cities and therefore competing locations offer more choice to potential occupiers. Correspondingly, Northampton has Coventry Leicester Luton Milton Northampton Peterborough registered far fewer deals (take-up) than neighbouring locations. The assessment found that Northampton has less available space (sqft) across all the office size categories. Keynes The Northamptonshire Workspaces Assessment also concludes that there are a limited number of large office units available in Northamptonshire; with the majority of units available sub 10,000 sqft. Also a limited number of new build stock in this category. Total Office Availability & Take-up in Comparative Locations (AVL, 2013) 114 P a g e

115 4.3.2 The industrial/distribution space market (B2/B8) The Northamptonshire Workspaces Assessment concludes that the industrial/distribution space market is much stronger than the office market in terms of having a significant supply of industrial space (12, 210,000 sqft in 338 units). As a means of comparison, the assessment shows that the supply of floorspace in this category in some of the county s towns is lower than in Milton Keynes and Coventry but compete relatively well with its other competitors. The availability of floorspace in Northampton and Corby in terms of square feet is above the levels of availability in Leicester and Luton. The key difference between Northampton and Corby and the other locations is that although Northampton and Corby have similar levels of floorspace, they have fewer units suggesting that a significant amount of the supply may be as a result of bigger unit sizes. However, Northamptonshire locations have witnessed more limited take-up particularly in the larger size categories when comparing them with locations outside the region. Coventry, Leicester, Milton Keynes and Peterborough have registered a far higher number of deals (take-up) than industrial locations within Northamptonshire. Total take-up ( ) and availability (AVL, 2013) Managed workspaces As part of the Northamptonshire Workspaces Assessment, consultation with centre managers in 2013 concluded increased demand for managed office space; with high demand for small office space in particular, whilst larger offices were left unoccupied. This is consistent with more recently released business birth data (ONS), showing a large percentage increase in the number of business births between 2012 and 2013 and self-employment data showing a spike in self-employment between September 2012 and September Whilst levels of self-employment have reduced slightly since this time, the number of self-employed jobs is projected to increase over the next 10 years and beyond (Oxford Economics). In addition, Companies House data (source: Bureau van Dijk, FAME database) shows an increase in the number of companies (+269) registering with Companies House in the 12 months to end of September 2014 compared with 1 year earlier. 115 P a g e

116 Therefore demand for smaller, managed office space will likely continue. Due to differences in the volume of employment, employment size profile, nature of work and projected rates of growth amongst the different Broad Industrial Groups, demand for small, managed workspace will differ between these groupings with much higher demand in some industries than others. This is true across the full ladder of accommodation to accommodate change and growth. For example, it is highlighted earlier in this document that the Broad Industrial Groups with the highest proportion of micro enterprises are Agriculture, forestry & fishing, Information & communication and Professional, scientific & technical services. In terms of location of managed workspaces, the report highlights 15 units across the County, although does recognise that may not be an exhaustive list. At the time centre managers were consulted, occupancy levels were high across the county, but close to full occupancy in West Northamptonshire. Location of managed workspace centres 1 Corby Enterprise Centre 9 Wellingborough Innovation Centre * 2 Rockingham Road 10 Bizspace K2 3 Moulton Park 11 Caswell Science and Technology Park 4 Chesham House Business Centre 12 icon Environmental Innovation Centre 5 Portfolio Centre 13 Nvision Technology Centre 6 SATRA Innovation Park 14 KG 7 Scott Bader Innovation Centre 15 Silverstone Innovation Centre 8 The Business Exchange *It should be noted that at the time of the study this centre was in the process of closing down. 116 P a g e

117 4.3.4 Commercial property costs The LEP Network published an analysis of rateable office value across all LEPs in 2014 (2012 data) (Building Local Advantage: Review of Local Enterprise Partnership economies in 2014, LEP Network, 2014) in the context of commercial property cost being an important factor in attracting businesses to an area. However, it should be born in mind that there are a number of factors that influence commercial property cost including location, supply and quality. Rateable office values per metre by use class, 2012 (Source: Building Local Advantage: Review of Local Enterprise Partnership economies in 2014, LEP Network, 2014). The analysis estimates Northamptonshire s commercial office space at a rateable value of 80 per square metre (representing the saleable value of the property), which is 75 cheaper than the England average (not including London). Office space in Northamptonshire is 11 th cheapest out of all 39 LEPs. The lowest office costs are found in the Humber at a rateable value of 58 per square metre. Industrial space is estimated at a rateable value of 37 per square metre, which is equal to the England average and therefore offers moderate costs. Industrial space in Northamptonshire is 26 th cheapest out of all 39 LEPs. Industrial space is cheapest in Cumbria at a rateable value of 21 per square metre. 117 P a g e

118 4.4 Climate change The cost of the impacts of climate change (extreme weather events, such as flooding) to businesses can be huge. As an example of the cost to business and services, Defra has estimated that a 3-6 month suspension of production caused by a weather-related interruption of supply chains for a major car manufacturer could be the equivalent of output worth between 600 million and 1,100 million. Adaptation actions could reduce this to 2-4 weeks, reducing production interruption by between 400 million and 1,000 million (Economics of Climate Change, Defra, March 2013). The National Adaptation Programme (HM Government, July 2013), therefore, has a chapter devoted to Business detailing the impacts, opportunities and actions. Nationally, evidence from an Ipsos Mori survey conducted in 2013 indicated that the number of businesses saying that they were taking action to adapt to climate change had increased significantly from around 1 in 4 (24%) in 2009 to around 1 in 3 (34%) of the businesses surveyed in The findings also indicated that large businesses are most likely to be taking action compared to Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (SMEs). The same research shows that most (76%) of the businesses surveyed would act if it saved them money, but with confusion about what adaptation means and therefore a need to further raise awareness about adaptation and also about how good climate risk management can save money was identified (National Adaptation Programme, HM Government, July 2013 sourced from Ipsos Mori). 118 P a g e

119 4.4.1 Local flood risk The Northamptonshire Local Flood Risk Management Strategy provides an assessment of local flood risk and how local flood risk is being managed now (including flood defence improvements) and will be into the future to reduce the harmful consequences of local flooding to communities (including businesses) and human health. This is a statutory requirement under the Flood and Water Management Act The Strategy states that the nature of flood risk within Northamptonshire is extremely varied and widespread across the county. Northamptonshire has an extensive network of rivers and canals, combined with a large number of towns and extremely rural surroundings. This means that Northamptonshire is therefore at risk of flooding from a range of different sources. Northamptonshire is not, however, one of the (top) 10 Flood Risk Areas in England. Northamptonshire has nearly 60,700 residential properties predicted to be affected by shallow surface water flooding during an extreme rainfall event and nearly 7000 residential properties predicted to be affected by fluvial flood risk. Areas susceptible to groundwater and surface water flooding are provided in the Strategy Mitigation In line with the National Adaptation Programme, the importance of business and supply chain resilience is featured in the Northamptonshire Climate Change Strategy with mitigating actions including targeted support for Business Continuity to businesses in Northamptonshire that are most sensitive to the impacts of climate change to help them take adaptive action. (Northamptonshire Climate Change Strategy, Source: Northamptonshire Local Flood Risk Management Strategy, Please see document for full image. As mentioned above, there is a local flood risk management strategy in place in Northamptonshire in line with statutory requirements. Mitigating actions are focussed on further flood defence improvements as well as activities and education programmes that enhance preparedness and resilience. For example, Northamptonshire is one of 13 pathfinder projects funded by DEFRA exploring how to support communities (including businesses) to improve their flood resilience with an online toolkit detailing how to information. The online toolkit is available on the Flood and Water Management website at with useful information around flooding in Northamptonshire including interactive mapping of flood risk. 119 P a g e