Table 1: Logit and Zero-truncated Estimates for Models of Black Representation
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1 Table 1: Logit and Zero-truncated Estimates for Models of Black Representation School Boards and City Councils with Mixed Systems School Board City Council Logit ZTP Logit ZTP Legislative Size *** (0.106) (0.106) (0.045) (0.006) % Black VAP 0.073* *** 0.019*** (0.036) (0.013) (0.015) (0.003) % Latino VAP (0.020) (0.018) (0.013) (0.004) % White BA *** (0.057) (0.035) (0.028) (0.008) Black-White Segregation * (0.018) (0.016) (0.013) (0.004) Past Representation 3.194*** *** 0.114*** (0.566) (0.062) (0.358) (0.019) % Black Employment * (0.068) (0.041) (0.041) (0.015) Log of Population 1.144** * 0.109* (0.422) (0.189) (0.251) (0.048) South ** (0.512) (0.549) (0.467) (0.079) * (1.445) (0.423) (0.454) (0.107) * (0.808) (0.345) (0.496) (0.111) * (0.751) (0.343) (0.490) (0.114) (0.875) (0.392) (0.498) (0.130) Constant ** (7.520) (3.331) (4.003) (1.274) N χ AIC BIC
2 Table 2: Logit Estimates for Models of Black Representation Pair-wise Post-matching Subsamples City Councils Subsample 1 Subsample 2 Subsample 3 SMD AL SMD Mixed AL Mixed Legislative Size 0.202*** 0.448** 0.194*** *** 0.270*** 0.376* (0.057) (0.140) (0.058) (0.055) (0.070) (0.184) % Black VAP 0.166*** 0.146** 0.166*** 0.067* 0.098*** 0.135*** (0.031) (0.045) (0.032) (0.031) (0.017) (0.033) Log of Population (0.280) (0.739) (0.303) (0.336) (0.224) (0.492) % Latino VAP (0.018) (0.063) (0.019) (0.025) (0.017) (0.043) % White BA ** (0.025) (0.055) (0.026) (0.040) (0.016) (0.043) % Black Employment * (0.050) (0.096) (0.051) (0.065) (0.040) (0.127) South (0.644) (1.245) (0.653) (0.883) (0.513) (0.943) Past Representation 2.328*** 3.981*** 2.370*** 3.032*** 2.996*** 3.089*** (0.408) (0.939) (0.420) (0.525) (0.367) (0.818) Black-White Segregation 0.053** * 0.086*** (0.019) (0.044) (0.020) (0.025) (0.014) (0.039) (0.570) (1.207) (0.584) (0.683) (0.498) (1.031) ** 4.382** 1.735** 1.407* (0.618) (1.459) (0.640) (0.713) (0.511) (1.031) * * (0.640) (1.309) (0.667) (0.870) (0.569) (1.181) ** (0.686) (1.429) (0.726) (0.988) (0.589) (1.183) Constant * * * (4.332) (9.890) (4.773) (5.640) (3.758) (12.646) N χ AIC BIC
3 Table 3: Zero-Truncated Poisson Estimates Models of Black Representation Pair-wise Post-matching Subsamples City Councils Subsample 1 Subsample 2 Subsample 3 SMD AL SMD Mixed AL Mixed Legislative Size 0.026*** *** 0.037* 0.108** (0.006) (0.037) (0.006) (0.018) (0.033) (0.037) % Black VAP 0.011*** 0.045* 0.010** 0.018*** 0.018*** (0.003) (0.018) (0.003) (0.006) (0.005) (0.007) Log of Population * (0.055) (0.197) (0.056) (0.098) (0.071) (0.150) % Latino VAP *** *** (0.006) (0.025) (0.006) (0.006) (0.011) (0.010) % White BA * * (0.008) (0.018) (0.008) (0.014) (0.014) (0.021) % Black Employment (0.014) (0.039) (0.014) (0.029) (0.018) (0.041) South ** (0.124) (0.409) (0.129) (0.157) (0.238) (0.209) Past Representation 0.096*** *** 0.105* (0.013) (0.149) (0.013) (0.041) (0.053) (0.066) Black-White Segregation (0.004) (0.016) (0.004) (0.010) (0.006) (0.010) (0.138) (0.241) (0.138) (0.205) (0.223) (0.282) (0.134) (0.278) (0.137) (0.204) (0.226) (0.304) * * (0.137) (0.439) (0.140) (0.214) (0.240) (0.269) (0.134) (0.367) (0.136) (0.239) (0.220) (0.275) Constant (1.210) (3.098) (1.247) (2.320) (1.756) (4.132) N χ AIC BIC
4 Table 4: Logit Estimates for Models of Black Representation Pair-wise Post-matching Subsamples School Boards Subsample 1 Subsample 2 Subsample 3 SMD AL SMD Mixed AL Mixed Legislative Size (0.116) (0.224) (0.116) (0.530) (0.085) (0.326) % Black VAP 0.119*** 0.141** 0.119*** 0.203** 0.085*** (0.027) (0.054) (0.027) (0.076) (0.013) (0.097) % Latino VAP * (0.014) (0.028) (0.014) (0.053) (0.011) (0.049) % White BA (0.034) (0.064) (0.034) (0.133) (0.014) (0.145) Black-White Segregation ** ** 0.083** (0.015) (0.021) (0.015) (0.030) (0.007) (0.030) Past Representation 1.911*** 4.407*** 1.911*** 2.805** 2.761*** 4.482*** (0.417) (0.717) (0.417) (0.940) (0.251) (1.231) % Black Employment ** ** (0.040) (0.059) (0.040) (0.122) (0.017) (0.176) Log of Population 0.606* * *** (0.257) (0.403) (0.257) (0.673) (0.151) (0.791) South (0.468) (0.968) (0.468) (1.346) (0.706) (2.875) * (0.647) (0.901) (0.647) (1.180) (0.378) (1.736) * (0.628) (0.999) (0.628) (1.336) (0.373) (1.655) (0.647) (0.929) (0.647) (1.327) (0.384) (1.529) (0.611) (0.963) (0.611) (1.431) (0.347) (1.526) Constant ** (3.486) (6.207) (3.486) (12.656) (2.346) (19.950) N χ AIC BIC
5 Table 5: Zero-Truncated Poisson Estimates Models of Black Representation Pair-wise Post-matching Subsamples School Boards Subsample 1 Subsample 2 Subsample 3 SMD AL SMD Mixed AL Mixed Legislative Size (0.039) (0.174) (0.039) (0.266) (0.044) (1.293) % Black VAP ** 0.025*** (0.010) (0.021) (0.010) (0.019) (0.004) (0.082) % Latino VAP (0.006) (0.030) (0.006) (0.036) (0.005) (0.052) % White BA * (0.011) (0.031) (0.011) (0.060) (0.003) (0.104) Black-White Segregation (0.005) (0.012) (0.005) (0.024) (0.003) (0.038) Past Representation 0.267*** *** *** (0.061) (0.111) (0.061) (0.110) (0.034) (0.397) % Black Employment * (0.018) (0.059) (0.018) (0.057) (0.011) (0.173) Log of Population * 0.161* (0.091) (0.429) (0.091) (0.329) (0.071) (0.995) South (0.163) (0.500) (0.163) (1.019) (0.229) (1.997) * (0.312) (0.485) (0.312) (0.561) (0.192) (1.163) * (0.307) (0.494) (0.307) (0.604) (0.205) (1.377) * (0.297) (0.469) (0.297) (0.575) (0.202) (1.341) (0.282) (0.554) (0.282) (0.626) (0.212) (1.476) Constant * (1.878) (7.739) (1.878) (5.084) (1.175) (8.979) N χ AIC BIC
6 Table 6: Cross Sectional Models for City Councils (2000) Logit Zero-Truncated Poisson SMD AL SMD AL Legislative Size (0.117) (0.117) (0.015) (0.062) % Black VAP 0.219*** 0.106** 0.024* (0.059) (0.035) (0.010) (0.007) Log of Population (0.359) (0.671) (0.160) (0.083) % Latino CVAP (0.029) (0.022) (0.004) (0.011) % White BA * (0.113) (0.036) (0.034) (0.019) % Black Employment * (0.132) (0.086) (0.029) (0.045) % Black Homeowner (0.059) (0.040) (0.017) (0.013) South (0.984) (1.737) (0.293) (0.285) Past Representation 2.757* 3.498*** 0.120** 0.187** (1.308) (0.981) (0.037) (0.068) Black-White Segregation (0.051) (0.031) (0.013) (0.008) Constant (9.750) (5.803) (3.247) (3.592) N χ AIC BIC
7 Table 7: Cross Sectional Models for School Boards (2000) Logit Zero-Truncated Poisson SMD AL SMD AL Legislative Size ** (0.397) (0.184) (0.061) (0.043) % Black VAP *** 0.048*** (0.107) (0.046) (0.010) (0.015) Past Representation *** 0.298*** 0.149* - (0.710) (0.043) (0.058) Log of Population (1.014) (0.528) (0.142) (0.129) South *** * 0.474** (2.725) (1.069) (0.236) (0.147) % Latino NC (0.063) (0.026) (0.007) (0.005) % Black Homeowner (0.083) (0.018) (0.018) (0.009) % Black Employment (0.240) (0.049) (0.046) (0.021) % White BA ** * (0.134) (0.040) (0.013) (0.012) % Latino VAP ** 0.038*** 0.022* (0.036) (0.035) (0.008) (0.010) Black-White Segregation (0.055) (0.017) (0.007) (0.005) Constant (23.216) (7.379) (4.597) (2.477) N chi aic bic
8 Testing for Interaction Effects In order to avoid interacting two continuous variables in the BlackVAP*segregation interaction models, we followed Trounstine and Valdini s (2008) lead and transformed black VAP into a dichotomous dummy variable that equals 1 when black VAP is moderate, 0 otherwise. We then tested our interactions two ways. First, we constructed the dummy variable utilizing the thresholds we empirically estimated: =1 when the black VAP in the council/school district was +/- 1standard deviations from the empirical threshold we estimated. For example, school boards in 2000 using SMDs with a black VAP threshold between 16% and 55% were coded 1, 0 otherwise. Second, we followed Trounstine and Valdini s method (2009, p. 559), which estimated the moderate threshold as between 100/seats/2 and 50%. For example, a school boards in 2000 with 7 seats would be coded as 1 if the black VAP was between 7.1% and 50%. As is illustrated from the examples given, our method takes into account electoral structure, whereas Trounstine and Valdini s method takes into account legislative size.these dummy variables were then interacted with segregation (Tables 9 & 10) to test our hypothesis that school districts and/or councils may in fact need to be hypersegregated in order to concentrate the black population into a single district. Following similar logic, we ran interactions models of legislative size and segregation in Tables 8 and 11, again using the moderate threshold dummy as a measure of black VAP. 8
9 Table 8: Segregation * Legislative Size: School Boards (2000) Authors Threshold Trounstine and Valdini s Threshold SMD AL SMD AL Logit ZTP Logit ZTP Logit ZTP Logit ZTP Legislative Size 1.644* Population (log) Black White Segregation *** *** Latino VAP *** ** White BA *** *** * 0.013*** Black Employment * * South * *** *** Past Representation 7.330** 0.310*** 4.441*** 0.205*** 6.568*** 0.221*** 4.225*** 0.210*** Moderate Black VAP (MBV) Size*Segregation Moderate Black VAP (MBV) Size*Segregation Constant ** *** N χ AIC BIC
10 Table 9: Segregation * Black VAP: School Boards (2000) Authors Threshold Trounstine and Valdini s Threshold SMD AL SMD AL Logit ZTP Logit ZTP Logit ZTP Logit ZTP Legislative Size 1.644* Population (log) Black White Segregation *** *** Latino VAP *** ** White BA *** *** * 0.013*** Black Employment * * South * *** *** Past Representation 7.330** 0.310*** 4.441*** 0.205*** 6.568*** 0.221*** 4.225*** 0.210*** Moderate Black VAP (MBV) MBV*Size Moderate Black VAP (MBV) MBV*Size Constant ** *** N χ AIC BIC
11 Table 10: Segregation * Black VAP: City Councils (2000) Authors Threshold Trounstine and Valdini s Threshold SMD AL SMD AL Logit ZTP Logit ZTP Logit ZTP Logit ZTP Legislative Size ** Population (log) Black White Segregation ** ** ** Latino VAP White BA *** * 0.013*** Black Employment * 0.037* * South * *** 1.945* *** Past Representation 3.725** 0.075* 4.527*** 0.208*** 3.531** 0.110*** 4.226*** 0.222*** Moderate Black VAP (MBV) * * MBV*Size 1.079* ** Moderate Black VAP (MBV) ** MBV*Size ** Constant ** ** N χ AIC BIC
12 Table 11: Segregation * Legislative Size: City Councils (2000) Authors Threshold Trounstine and Valdini s Threshold SMD AL SMD AL Logit ZTP Logit ZTP Logit ZTP Logit ZTP Legislative Size Population (log) * Black White Segregation ** Latino VAP White BA Black Employment South ** 1.945* Past Representation 3.941** 0.105** 4.280*** 0.205*** 3.531** 0.110*** 4.689*** 0.188** Moderate Black VAP (MBV) 9.229* *** Size*Segregation * * *** Moderate Black VAP (MBV) ** * Size*Segregation ** 0.117* Constant N χ AIC BIC
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