Social and Distributional Impact Appraisal Report

Transcription

1 Social and Distributional mpact Appraisal Report September 2011

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3 Croxley Rail Link Social and Distributional mpact Appraisal Report September 2011 Prepared for: Hertfordshire County Council Highways House Broadwater Welwyn Garden City AL7 3SP Prepared by: Steer Davies Gleave Upper Ground London SE1 9PD +44 (0)

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5 Social and Distributional mpact Appraisal CONTENTS 1 NTRODUCTON... 1 Scheme Description... 1 Purpose of this report STEP 0: NTAL SCREENNG STEP 1: AREA OF MPACT... 4 ntroduction... 4 Areas of mpact STEP 2: DENTFCATON OF SOCAL GROUPS N THE AFFECTED AREA... 6 ntroduction... 6 Deprivation... 6 Children under Young adults aged Elderly aged over Proportion with a Disability... 9 Proportion Black and Minority Ethnic Households without access to a car Households with Dependent Children mpact on User Groups STEP 3: SCREENNG FOR SDS ntroduction User benefits Noise Security Accessibility Personal affordability STEP 4 AND 5 SD ANALYSS Quantitative Analysis of mpacts Conclusions FGURES Figure 1.1 Proposed Croxley Rail Link... 1 Figure 3.1 mpact Area... 5 Contents

6 Social and Distributional mpact Appraisal Figure 4.1 ncome Deprivation map... 7 Figure 4.2 Percentage population less than 16 years old... 7 Figure 4.3 Percentage population between 16 and 25 years old... 8 Figure 4.4 Percentage population over 65 years old... 9 Figure 4.5 Percentage population With Disability... 9 Figure 4.6 Percentage Black and Minority Ethnic Figure 4.7 Percentage households with no access to a car Figure 4.8 Percentage households with Dependent Children TABLES Table 5.1 Preferred Option - Person Hours By Size of Time Saving Table 6.1 Accural of Benefits Table 6.2 mpact Scale Table 6.3 Distributional mpacts Table 6.4 Social mpacts APPENDCES A STEP 0 PROFORMA AND DFT FEEDBACK Contents

7 Social and Distributional mpact Appraisal 1 ntroduction Scheme Description 1.1 The Croxley Rail Link (CRL) scheme is a proposed extension of London Underground s Metropolitan Line from Croxley to Watford Junction via Watford High Street. The scheme involves the construction of a viaduct to connect the existing Metropolitan Line to the disused Croxley Green Branch line. New stations will also be provided at Ascot Road and Watford General Hospital. The scheme also involves the closure of the Metropolitan Line branch from Croxley to Watford Metropolitan station and Watford Metropolitan station itself to passenger services. Figure 1.1 shows a map of the link and the surrounding area showing the position of the new stations. FGURE 1.1 PROPOSED CROXLEY RAL LNK Purpose of this report 1.2 This report sets out the appraisal of the Social and Distributional mpacts (SDs) of the Croxley Rail link in support of the BAFB submission. The analysis follows the framework for SD appraisal set out in WebTAG Unit 3.17 to provide an assessment of the impacts of the project on different user and social groups and to examine the distributional impacts of the project across income groups. 1.3 The remainder of this report is structured as follows: Section 2 summarises the SD Step 0 Screening Assessment undertaken as part of the Major Scheme Business Case (MSBC); Section 3 sets out Step 1 of the SD Appraisal process confirming the geographic extent of the scheme s impact; 1

8 Social and Distributional mpact Appraisal Section 4 presents Step 2 identifying the social groups of relevance to the project SD Appraisal; Section 5 sets out Step 3 of the SD Appraisal process proposing an approach to assessing the impacts of the scheme; and Section 6 presents Step 4 & 5 analysis and draws conclusions of the overall social and distributional impact. 2

9 Social and Distributional mpact Appraisal 2 Step 0: nitial Screening 2.1 The DfT has requested that promoter s submitting BAFB submissions to follow the new guidance on assessing Social and Distributional mpacts of Schemes. n response to this an nitial Screening Assessment (Step 0) for the Croxley Rail Link Project was submitted to the DfT for review in June This considered the likely impact of the following elements on vulnerable user groups across a range of potential impacts including: User Benefits; Noise; Air Quality; Accidents; Security; Severance; Accessibility; and Personal Affordability. 2.2 On the basis of this initial assessment, a number of impacts were ruled out on the basis that the project would not have a material impact. The Step 0 Pro-forma used for the initial assessment is included in Appendix A, together with the feedback received from the DfT. For some elements, the DfT requested that a more detailed analysis of the SDs for the project be undertaken (to Step 3 Detailed Screening) and where necessary a full appraisal carried out. The elements for which more detailed analysis was requested include: User Benefits; Noise; Security (part of the station design); Accessibility; and Personal Affordability. 2.3 The analysis of the effect of the project on these potential SDs is described throughout the rest of the report. 3

10 Social and Distributional mpact Appraisal 3 Step 1: Area of mpact ntroduction 3.1 The CRL will have a significant impact on Watford, improving public transport interchange, reliability and accessibility for travellers to a range of locations including London. The benefits of the project will occur over a wide area including people who travel to Watford from other areas, however the impact of the project across SDs will be clearly focussed upon Watford town centre along the new alignment, and surrounding the new stations. This section describes the areas of impact for each SD considered in this report. Areas of mpact User Benefits 3.2 We have assumed that the areas of impact for user benefits will be the area covered by the transport model, excluding external zones where the model does not have a sufficiently detailed zoning system. This area completely covers the district of Watford and is shown by the shaded areas in Figure 3.1 on the following page. 3.3 The map shows the distribution of benefits showing that the positive impacts are focused on the centre of the town in the areas surrounding the new station. The areas of dis-benefit are primarily surrounding Watford Metropolitan station where users experience an increase in walk times. Accessibility & Personnel Affordability 3.4 Time and cost impacts are captured within the generalised cost calculation used in the economic appraisal. The area of impact for accessibility and affordability will be correlated with the overall user benefit. The area of impact for these effects is the same as shown in Figure 3.1 Noise 3.5 ntroduction of rail services on the currently disused rail alignment will increase noise level in the vicinity of the rail link, while there is likely to be a reduction of noise on the current alignment to Watford Metropolitan station. The area affected is included within the study area shown in Figure 3.1 Security 3.6 The security benefits will be appreciated by those who use the rail link, in particularly the new stations at Ascot Road and Watford Hospital. Therefore the distribution of security benefits will closely match that of user benefits and will be covered by the study area defined in Figure

11 Social and Distributional mpact Appraisal FGURE 3.1 MPACT AREA 5

12 Social and Distributional mpact Appraisal 4 Step 2: dentification of Social Groups in the Affected Area ntroduction 4.1 This section sets out the identification and analysis of vulnerable groups living in the impact area. The vulnerable groups identified are consistent with those described in Table 2 of WebTAG Unit 3.17 Detailed Guidance on Social Distributional mpacts of Transport nterventions. The vulnerable groups, are summarised below: Low income groups considered using ndex of Multiple Deprivation data; Children aged under 16; Young adults aged 16-25; Elderly aged over 70; Disabled; Black and Minority Ethnic; Households without access to a car; Households with dependent children. 4.2 The sections also draws a brief summary of the likely impact of the rail link on each category of vulnerable social groups. Deprivation 4.3 The indices of Multiple Deprivation cover a range of issues affecting quality of life, comprising income, health, education & skills, housing, crime and living environment. Figure 4.1 shows the level of income deprivation in the impact area compared to the national average. The map shows that the Croxley Rail Link corridor will better serve the lower income zones in the impact area. By comparison the area surrounding the existing Watford Metropolitan station is amongst the least income deprived areas both relative to Watford and absolutely. 6

13 Social and Distributional mpact Appraisal FGURE 4.1 NCOME DEPRVATON MAP Children under Figure 4.2 shows that the area surrounding Watford Metropolitan station has a relatively low proportion of young people (10-20%). Conversely the areas surrounding the new alignment have higher proportions with over 30% of the population under 16 in some cases. The project will therefore provide better services to areas with higher proportions of young people. FGURE 4.2 PERCENTAGE POPULATON LESS THAN 16 YEARS OLD 7

14 Social and Distributional mpact Appraisal Young adults aged The map in Figure 4.3 shows the proportion of year olds compared to the total population in the impact area. The distribution is consistently <20% throughout the impact area, with higher concentrations to the north east of Watford Junction. Overall the project is not likely to have any significant effect on this group. FGURE 4.3 PERCENTAGE POPULATON BETWEEN 16 AND 25 YEARS OLD Elderly aged over Figure 4.4 shows the distribution of residents aged over 65 around the impact area. This shows a relatively low proportion of over 65 s living around the old and new alignments, with pockets of larger proportions of over 65 s to the north of Watford Junction. Overall the project is not likely to have a significant effect upon this group. 8

15 Social and Distributional mpact Appraisal FGURE 4.4 PERCENTAGE POPULATON OVER 65 YEARS OLD Proportion with a Disability 4.7 Figure 4.5 shows the percentage of the population claiming Disability Living Allowance (DLA) in the impact area. This shows in the areas adjacent to Watford Metropolitan station up to 6% of the population are claiming DLA. There are areas adjacent to the Croxley Rail Link, and particularly the stations served by the rail link, where the proportion claiming DLA is up to 9% indicating that the project could have a slight positive impact upon this group. FGURE 4.5 PERCENTAGE POPULATON WTH DSABLTY 9

16 Social and Distributional mpact Appraisal Proportion Black and Minority Ethnic 4.8 Figure 4.6 shows that the prevailing proportion of black and minority ethnic population in Watford is around 10-20% of the total population. There are areas of higher proportion of black and minority ethnic population in areas adjacent to Watford Hospital, whereas the area around Watford Metropolitan station is consistent with the general proportion across Watford. Overall the impact on this group is likely to be slight positive to neutral. FGURE 4.6 PERCENTAGE BLACK AND MNORTY ETHNC Households without access to a car 4.9 Figure 4.7 shows the distribution of households without a car across the impact area. The proposed rail corridor serves an area of low car ownership, including many where fewer than half of the households have a car. Residents of these areas will be likely to be more dependent on public transport. Conversely Watford Metropolitan station is in an area with higher car ownership. For this reason the project is likely to provide significant benefits to households without cars. 10

17 Social and Distributional mpact Appraisal FGURE 4.7 PERCENTAGE HOUSEHOLDS WTH NO ACCESS TO A CAR Households with Dependent Children 4.10 Figure 4.8 illustrates the proportion of households with dependent children in the Watford area. This shows a high proportion of households in Watford have dependent children. n particular the areas adjacent to Watford Metropolitan station, and the proposed stations at Ascot Road and Watford Hospital where the proportion of households with dependent children is greater than 40%. Overall the impact of the project is likely to be neutral on this group. FGURE 4.8 PERCENTAGE HOUSEHOLDS WTH DEPENDENT CHLDREN 11

18 Social and Distributional mpact Appraisal mpact on User Groups 4.11 Based on the preceding analysis it is clear that the project will have a slight positive impact on vulnerable user groups by providing improved accessibility to areas of deprivation and low income, high disability, low car ownership and young people. The main area of disbenefit is located north of Watford Metropolitan station and is relatively affluent suburban area with a low proportion of vulnerable user groups. 12

19 Social and Distributional mpact Appraisal 5 Step 3: Screening for SDs ntroduction 5.1 This section describes the Step 3 screening of the scheme impacts on different social groups across each impact. t confirms those impacts for which full SD appraisal is required and sets out the approach to undertaking this. User benefits 5.2 The scheme will generate user benefits by offering quicker overall journey times from between Watford, locations in the Metropolitan Line corridor and central London. Total user benefits includes the impact of journey time and user charges, although the largest impact is on time. An analysis of the distribution of benefits by time impact is summarised in Table 5.1. TABLE 5.1 PREFERRED OPTON - PERSON HOURS BY SZE OF TME SAVNG Purpose < -5m -5 to -2m -2 to 0m 0 to 2m 2 to 5m > 5m Business ,682 Commuting -1, ,187 16,424 Other -1, ,869 Total -3,587-1, ,176 45,975 % -8.4% -4.2% -1.3% 1.0% 5.1% 107.8% 5.3 The table shows that a large proportion of the benefits are as a result of significant (greater than 5 minutes) change in the overall journey time. As there is a significant impact, detailed SD analysis has been undertaken. This takes the form of quantitative analysis of the user impacts by levels of income deprivation across model zones as recommended in WebTAG A qualitative comparison of the distribution of user benefits across social groups using the preceding mapping analysis has also been undertaken. Noise 5.4 The noise impact of the scheme is currently being assessed as part of the environmental assessment in support of the application for legal powers to deliver the scheme under the Transport and Works Act. The noise assessment and identification of potential mitigation measures have not been finalised. The social and distributional impact assessment of the noise impact will be completed once the full noise assessment is completed. Emerging analysis suggests that the noise impact will be limited to a small number of households adjacent to the new alignment. 13

20 Social and Distributional mpact Appraisal Security 5.5 The proposed stations at Ascot Road and Watford Hospital will include contemporary security facilities including CCTV, help points and information points as well as station staff. While the stations have similar security facilities as other local rail stations the new stations are likely to offer users a greater perception of personal security than alternative modes, for example bus. There is therefore likely to be a strong benefit, although this will be distributed across all users at the new stations. On the basis that there is a strong benefit a qualitative assessment of the proportion of young, older and disabled population in the study area has been considered in the SD appraisal. Accessibility 5.6 The scheme is expected to significantly improve accessibility to a wide range of public facilities and important areas. Accessibility benefits reflect where people have the option of improved journey times, and therefore access to key destinations (i.e. Watford and London). The impact of the project on accessibility has been incorporated within the user benefit analysis (using time benefits in place of total benefits). Personal affordability 5.7 The scheme will have a varied impact on personal affordability summarised as follows: Current London Midland and London Overground users may have an improved journey opportunity via the Metropolitan Line which offers cheaper journeys; where as Following closure some who currently travel via Watford Metropolitan will use Watford Junction to access the Metropolitan Line (or switch to using London Midland or London Overground) from where journeys are more expensive. 5.8 Overall the economic appraisal indicates that the charge benefit is positive, however there are some areas of disbenefit. The SD analysis of the impact on personal affordability has been considered on the same basis as the user benefits, but excluding the time element. 14

21 Social and Distributional mpact Appraisal 6 Step 4 and 5 SD Analysis Quantitative Analysis of mpacts Distributional mpacts 6.1 Using modelled benefit outputs from TUBA in conjunction with the GS analysis of users across different groups we have quantitatively assessed the accrual of benefit to each user group (defined as the quintile of ncome ndex of Multiple Deprivation). The accrual of benefits is shown in Table 6.1, the table shows the percentage of benefit across each category. TABLE 6.1 ACCURAL OF BENEFTS ncome Groups Net Benefit ( ) Time Benefit ( ) Charge Benefit ( ) Population % Pop 0-20% (Lowest ncome) 6,077,054 (8.0%) 5,851,220 (8.3%) 225,835 (4.3%) 6,282 3% 20-40% 18,334,355 16,001,679 2,332,676 37,781 20% (22.6%) (22.6%) (44.5%) 40-60% 25,050,557 21,758,223 3,292,334 37,030 19% (30.7%) (30.7%) (62.7%) 60-80% 15,013,203 13,342,542 1,670,661 43,544 23% (19.7%) (18.9%) (31.8%) % (Highest ncome) 11,525,047 (15.2%) 13,799,725 (19.5%) -2,274,678 (-43.35%) 67,803 35% Total 76,000,216 70,753,388 5,246, , % (100%) (100%) (100%) 6.2 Based on the scale provided in Table 6.2, this accrual of benefits indicates that the scheme has a general positive impact on user groups, particularly for the most deprived for whom the scheme is Large Beneficial in SD terms. 15

22 Social and Distributional mpact Appraisal TABLE 6.2 MPACT SCALE Large Beneficial Beneficial and 5% greater (or more) than the proportion of the group in the total population Moderate Beneficial Beneficial and in line (+/-5%) with the proportion of the group in the total population Slight Beneficial Beneficial and (-)5% smaller (or less) than the proportion of the group in the total population - Neutral No mpact Slight Adverse Moderate Adverse Large Adverse A disbenefit which is (-)5% smaller (or less) than the proportion of the group in the total population A disbenefit which is in line (+/-5%) with the proportion of the group in the total population A disbenefit which is 5% greater (or more) than the proportion of the group in the total population Source: WebTAG Table 6.3 shows the results of the analysis using the scoring system across user groups. TABLE 6.3 DSTRBUTONAL MPACTS Distributional mpacts By ncome Group mpacts Most Deprived Least Deprived 0-20% 20-40% 40-60% 60-80% % User Benefits Noise Air Quality Accidents No Quantitative Assessment Security Severance Accessibility Affordability 6.4 The only negative impact of the project is for the wealthiest individuals who receive a negative charge impact as a result of the project. This is related to and offset by the greater range of travel choice provided by the project. Social mpacts 6.5 The mapping analysis in the early sections indicated that the new alignment will have a generally positive impact across different vulnerable social groups by 16

23 Pedestrians Cyclists Motorcyclists Children & Young People Young Men Older People Women Disabled BMEs Social and Distributional mpact Appraisal providing better transport access to more deprived areas. Overall the project will have a neutral effect on Air Quality, Accidents, Security and Severance. Where the impacts are potentially negative, the adverse effect is likely to be minor and evenly dispersed across all groups. A qualitative analysis of the affects across social groups is provided in Table 6.4. TABLE 6.4 SOCAL MPACTS Social mpacts User Groups Social Groups mpacts User Benefits - - Noise To be updated following finalised noise assessment Air Quality Accidents Security Severance Accessibility - - Affordability Conclusions 6.6 By providing improvements in accessibility to the centre of Watford, the project is likely to have a strong beneficial effect on the most vulnerable social groups across most categories of impact. User benefits are strongly positive for the most disadvantaged groups, and areas of disbenefit tend to be relatively, affluent containing low proportions of vulnerable individuals. The only negative distributional impact is on the affordability of transport for the most wealthy groups. This is due to the socioeconomic profile of people living near Watford Metropolitan station, who tend to be more affluent than average, car ownership is also higher in this area. 6.7 There could be some noise impacts from the project as a result of train operations on the new alignment. These impacts are likely to be limited to a small number of households next to the alignment and dispersed evenly across social groups. 17

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25 Social and Distributional mpact Appraisal APPENDX A STEP 0 PROFORMA AND DFT FEEDBACK Appendix A

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27 CROXLEY RAL LNK: SD Step 0 Proforma ASSESSMENT OF SOCAL AND DSTRBUTONAL MPACTS (SDs) OF TRANSPORT NTERVENTONS Proforma for reporting conclusions of first screening stage (Step 0) This form is intended for use by scheme promoters to capture the considerations, assessment and conclusions of the first screening stage of the SD analysis (Step 0). For a full description of Step 0 please see WebTAG guidance units 2.13 and These initial screening tests are not intended to be onerous and should require no additional data collection or analysis. At this stage promoters are only expected to carry out a qualitative assessment, based on their professional judgement and that of the technical specialists responsible for undertaking assessment of noise, air quality, safety, security, severance, accessibility, personal affordability and user benefits. n identifying what further screening or analysis is required promoters are encouraged to look how they can use existing analysis and data (e.g. as reported in existing business cases, Local Transport Plans) to meet the requirements of the guidance in a proportionate way. Promoters should also note in the final column if it is not possible to undertake the additional analysis/screening required by guidance by 9th September Scheme name: Croxley Rail Link Brief description of scheme: The Croxley Rail Link is a proposed diversion of the Watford Branch of the Metropolitan Line to Watford Junction via Watford High Street. New stations will be provided on the new rail link at Ascot Road, which forms a strategic park and ride site for the area, and Watford General Hospital. As part of the scheme the existing Metropolitan Line alignment to the current Watford terminus on the suburban fringe will be closed, with services diverted to serve Watford Junction. A map showing the current rail network in the Watford area, the proposed Croxley Rail Link and the current Watford Metropolitan Line alignment that will close is attached. The following bullet points summarise the key scope of work required to deliver the Croxley Rail Link:

28 CROXLEY RAL LNK: SD Step 0 Proforma A viaduct and embankment linking the current Metropolitan Line 1.3km south of the existing Watford terminus to the disused rail alignment between Croxley and Watford High Street; Reinstatement of double track on the disused Croxley alignment, including a new junction with the Watford Junction to London Euston DC route at Watford High Street; Work to bring the bridges, cuttings and embankments on the disused Croxley alignment into operational use; New stations at Ascot Road and Watford General Hospital; and An additional rolling stock unit to deliver the extended services. Croxley Rail Link will be served by diverting current services at Watford Met to Watford Junction. This will give a frequency on the Croxley Rail Link of up to seven trains per hour. Scheme objectives: The Croxley Rail Link scheme addresses a wide range of objectives, as detailed in the Major Scheme Business Case (MSBC) submission. The following bullet points summarise the three primary objectives of the scheme: To enhance sustainable links to and between residents and employment, business, education, health and leisure opportunities within Watford and across Hertfordshire, and to key external attractors, notably north west & central London and the national rail network, thus reinforcing Watford s role as a key transport hub north of London; To promote economic and housing development by improving public transport linkages between current/potential employees, Watford town centre and the key development areas of Watford Junction, Watford Business Park / Ascot Road and the Watford Health Campus; and To provide a credible alternative to car travel, with inherently lower environmental impacts per trip including noise and greenhouse gas emissions.

29 CROXLEY RAL LNK: SD Step 0 Proforma mpact (Consider each separately) s social/distributional impact relevant to stated scheme objectives? (f yes, provide details) No Could scheme lead to impact on low income and/or vulnerable groups? (Provide details) Can potential negative impacts be eliminated through design or mitigation? (Provide details) Analysis suggests that providing a service to both Watford Met and Junction costs more, reduces the overall benefits of the scheme and therefore is not as attractive as the preferred scheme. Are potential impacts, where presumed, likely to be 'significant and concentrated'? (Provide details) There will be a concentration of significant benefits for those living in the rail link corridor and accessing opportunities via the Metropolitan Line. There are also significant benefits to those travelling to opportunities on the new rail link, although these are distributed throughout the Metropolitan Line corridor. Similarly disbenefits will be significant and concentrated for some current users travelling from Watford Met but distributed for those travelling to Watford Met. Next steps: what further screening (Step 1 to 3), or full SD analysis (Step 1 to 5) is necessary and/or proportionate to potential impact? (Provide rationale for proposal) As all the scheme benefits are significant and/or concentrated further SD analysis will be undertaken. This will draw on the outputs of the updated demand and benefit model and other data sources to allow consideration of the impact on low income or vulnerable groups. User Benefits Journey times to employment, health and leisure opportunities will be reduced for those current and potential users travelling to and from south west Watford, Watford town centre, Watford Hospital and Ascot Road Business Park. Analysis of multiple deprivation and anecdotal evidence suggests there are pockets of low income and vulnerable groups in this area. However journey time will increase for those travelling from the relatively affluent area surrounding Watford Met station including the north of Cassiobury Park and those travelling to Cassiobury Park and children travelling to Watford Grammar School.

30 CROXLEY RAL LNK: SD Step 0 Proforma mpact (Consider each separately) s social/distributional impact relevant to stated scheme objectives? (f yes, provide details) No Could scheme lead to impact on low income and/or vulnerable groups? (Provide details) Can potential negative impacts be eliminated through design or mitigation? (Provide details) Noise modelling is currently being undertaken to as part of the Environmental Assessment required to obtain TWA powers. The results of the noise modelling will be used to inform the detailed design and construction methods. Opportunities to minimise the impact of noise will explored. However it will not be possible to completely eliminate all noise impacts. Are potential impacts, where presumed, likely to be 'significant and concentrated'? (Provide details) The noise impact will be significant for a small number of people/schools concentrated immediately next to the proposed rail link. Next steps: what further screening (Step 1 to 3), or full SD analysis (Step 1 to 5) is necessary and/or proportionate to potential impact? (Provide rationale for proposal) The full impact of noise will be established as part of the Environmental Assessment. This will be used to consider the social and distributional impacts of noise as a result of the scheme. Noise ntroduction of rail services on the currently disused rail alignment will increase noise experienced by a number of sensitive receptors. Additionally there will be traffic related noise in the vicinity of the new stations at Ascot Road and Watford hospital as well as noise impact during the construction phase. The rail link passes three schools and as a result there may be some impact on children. Analysis of multiple deprivation and anecdotal evidence suggests there are pockets of low income and vulnerable groups in this area. There will be a reduction in noise in the current corridor to Watford Met station, although no vulnerable users are in catchment.

31 CROXLEY RAL LNK: SD Step 0 Proforma mpact (Consider each separately) Air Quality Accidents s social/distributional impact relevant to stated scheme objectives? (f yes, provide details) No No Could scheme lead to impact on low income and/or vulnerable groups? (Provide details) The small increase in train miles is not likely to have a material impact on the emissions from power stations. There will be some modal shift from car to rail which will marginally reduce car emissions in the Watford area although there may be increased emissions locally in the vicinity of the new stations at Ascot Road and Watford Hospital. There will be some negative impact on local air quality during construction. Rail is an inherently safer mode of transport than car. Overall there will be small reduction in accidents as result of modal shift from car to public transport. Children travelling to Watford Grammar School via the Metropolitan Line and Ascot Road will need to cross Rickmansworth Road. Can potential negative impacts be eliminated through design or mitigation? (Provide details) Options to minimise the impact of local air quality in the construction phase will be considered during detailed planning. A safe walking route from Ascot Road to Watford Grammar School will be developed to mitigate the negative impact on school children. Are potential impacts, where presumed, likely to be 'significant and concentrated'? (Provide details) The impact on local air quality is not likely to be significant, given the overall number of vehicle movements in the area. The impacts are likely to be distributed across the Watford Area although the possibility of localised effects at Ascot Road at Watford Hospital will be examined within the EA. Reduced accidents as a result of mode shift from car is not likely to be significant and will be distributed across a wide area and range of users. Next steps: what further screening (Step 1 to 3), or full SD analysis (Step 1 to 5) is necessary and/or proportionate to potential impact? (Provide rationale for proposal) The full impact on air quality will be established as part of the demand modelling and Environmental Assessment. However it is unlikely that full SD analysis will be required. The full impact on accidents will be established as part of the demand modelling. However it is unlikely that full SD analysis will be required.

32 CROXLEY RAL LNK: SD Step 0 Proforma mpact (Consider each separately) Security Severance s social/distributional impact relevant to stated scheme objectives? (f yes, provide details) No No Could scheme lead to impact on low income and/or vulnerable groups? (Provide details) The design of the new stations will include appropriate contemporary security features. Compared to alternative public transport opportunities there will be an improvements in key security indicators. These will benefit all users including those on low incomes or in vulnerable groups. As the scheme uses an existing rail alignment and a new viaduct there will be no severance as a result of the scheme. Can potential negative impacts be eliminated through design or mitigation? (Provide details) No negative impacts have been identified. No impacts have been identified. Are potential impacts, where presumed, likely to be 'significant and concentrated'? (Provide details) The security benefits are not likely to be significant and will be distributed across all users. No impacts have been identified. Next steps: what further screening (Step 1 to 3), or full SD analysis (Step 1 to 5) is necessary and/or proportionate to potential impact? (Provide rationale for proposal) Further SD analysis is not likely. No impacts have been identified.

33 CROXLEY RAL LNK: SD Step 0 Proforma mpact (Consider each separately) s social/distributional impact relevant to stated scheme objectives? (f yes, provide details) A number of the local and regional strategies and plans that inform the scheme objectives include reducing social inclusion by enhancing accessibility to opportunities for the disadvantaged. Could scheme lead to impact on low income and/or vulnerable groups? (Provide details) Can potential negative impacts be eliminated through design or mitigation? (Provide details) Analysis suggests that providing a service to both Watford Met and Junction costs more, reduces the overall benefits of the scheme and therefore is not an economically viable solution. as attractive as the preferred scheme. Are potential impacts, where presumed, likely to be 'significant and concentrated'? (Provide details) There will be a concentration of significant benefits for those living in the rail link corridor with improved access to opportunities via the Metropolitan Line. There are also benefits to those travelling to opportunities on the new rail link, although these are distributed throughout the Metropolitan Line corridor. Similarly disbenefits will be significant and concentrated for some current users travelling from Watford Met but distributed for those travelling to Watford Met. Next steps: what further screening (Step 1 to 3), or full SD analysis (Step 1 to 5) is necessary and/or proportionate to potential impact? (Provide rationale for proposal) As the scheme benefits are significant and/or concentrated further SD analysis will be undertaken. This will draw on the outputs of the updated demand and benefit model and other data sources to allow consideration of the impact on low income or vulnerable groups. Accessibility Access to employment, health and leisure opportunities in the Metropolitan Line corridor, including central London, will be improved for those living in the rail link corridor. Analysis of multiple deprivation and anecdotal evidence suggests there are pockets of low income and vulnerable groups in this area. However accessibility to these opportunities will be reduced for those in the relatively affluent area surrounding Watford Met station including the north of Cassiobury Park.

34 CROXLEY RAL LNK: SD Step 0 Proforma mpact (Consider each separately) s social/distributional impact relevant to stated scheme objectives? (f yes, provide details) No Could scheme lead to impact on low income and/or vulnerable groups? (Provide details) Can potential negative impacts be eliminated through design or mitigation? (Provide details) The negative impact of increased fares when travelling from Watford Junction could be eliminated by changing the zoning structure in Watford. However there would need to be a commercial agreement between London Underground, LOROL and London Midland to make these changes. Are potential impacts, where presumed, likely to be 'significant and concentrated'? (Provide details) The impact is not likely to be significant but will be concentrated on a small number of existing Watford Met users. Next steps: what further screening (Step 1 to 3), or full SD analysis (Step 1 to 5) is necessary and/or proportionate to potential impact? (Provide rationale for proposal) Further screening will be undertaken once the fare strategy is agreed. Affordability The fares strategy for stations on the proposed rail link has not yet been confirmed. The rail link has the potential to offer improved access to cheaper Metropolitan Line journey opportunities between Watford and central London. Following closure of Watford Met some existing users next quickest journey will be via Watford Junction. However given the current zone structure in Watford this journey may be more expensive than the current journey via Watford Met. These users are not likely to be in a low income of vulnerable group.

35 Social and Distributional mpact AppraisalSocial and Distributional mpact Appraisal Appendix A

36 Social and Distributional mpact AppraisalSocial and Distributional mpact Appraisal STEP 0 PROFORMA: DfT FEEDBACK Scheme: Croxley Rail Link Contact: tbc Assessor: Lee Smith Date: 22 nd June 2011 Observations on Step 0 conclusions User benefits - Given the likelihood of significant impacts, would agree with the proposal to consider the impact further through analysis to Step 3. Noise - would agree the proposal to proceed to Step 3. Air quality - would agree that no further SD analysis would be appropriate for AQ. Accidents - would agree that no further SD would be required. Security - Given the nature of the scheme and the development of new station infrastructure would suggest that further consideration of perceived personal safety issues are considered further (to step 3). note that these issues will be addressed within the station design. Severance - Given the scheme will make use of existing infrastructure would support the proposal not to conduct further analysis of severance impacts. Accessibility - would agree the proposal to conduct further analysis of the SD impacts on accessibility given the nature and objectives of the scheme. Affordability - Given the nature of the scheme would suggest that further analysis of affordability is considered. accept that pricing information may not be available by the 9 th Sep however in the absence of consideration of this issue an assessment of potential SDs cannot be reported. Any indication of the scale of potential impact as is possible to comment on within the BAFFB deadline would be welcomed i.e. demographics of current users and ability to incur additional costs. Other comments n proceeding to Step 3 it will be important to draw upon existing analysis as far as possible in order to ensure proportionality in analysis requirements. Requirement for full (step 4 and 5) analysis in relation to any impacts will be taken based on conclusions of Step 3 - though Fig 2 (Unit 3.17) emphasises need for full SD appraisal for all impacts identified as significant and/or concentrated. Full analysis (to Step 5) where required will need to be presented in September submission. Appendix A

37 CONTROL SHEET Project/Proposal Name Document Title Client Contract/Project No. Croxley Rail Link Social and Distributional mpact Appraisal Click here to enter text. SDG Project/Proposal No SSUE HSTORY ssue No. Date Details V5 09/09/2011 Updated Final version REVEW Originator Other Contributors Duncan Kernohan Kabilshaw Kaliyamoorthi, Alastair Hutchinson, Nick Austin Review by: Print Les Buckman Sign DSTRBUTON Client: Hertfordshire County Council Steer Davies Gleave: L:\Projects\222\8\11\05\Work\SD\Croxley SD v5.docx Control Sheet