Comments on Capital Controls in India and Interest Rate Arbitrage by Hutchison, Kendall, Pasrischa, Singh
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1 Comments on Capital Controls in India and Interest Rate Arbitrage by Hutchison, Kendall, Pasrischa, Singh Sergio Schmukler 2nd Research Meeting of the NIPFP-DEA Program New Delhi March 2008
2 Comments Caveat: Hard to comment just on presentation But overall, nice ideas on a very important topic Good set of questions However, would need to understand better what authors are doing One main concern: Can effects of capital controls be effectively disentangled with interest rates? Several other questions 2
3 Some analytical considerations i t, k i f t, k underbracealignl total interest rate differential = i t, k i t, k currency premium i t, k i t,k f country premium 3
4 Some analytical considerations i t, k i t, k = s currency premium e! t,k anticipated devauation exchange rate risk premium underbracealignl eerp t, i underbracealignl 4
5 Some analytical considerations i t,k i f t, k country premium = i t, k offshore i t, k onshore premium capital controls pure default premium underbracealignl offshore f i t, k i t, k underbracealignl 5
6 Some analytical considerations If forward markets exists and under no currency premium, covered interest parity should hold i i f = fd t, k t, k t, k onshore offshore differential? f i t, k i t, k fd t, k underbracealignl = 0 Broad version of CIP: entails different currencies, issuers, and jurisdictions 6
7 Some analytical considerations i t, k i t, k onshore-offshore differential f fd t, k underbracealignl = i t, k i f t, k country premium i t, k i f t,k fd t, k underbracealignl = i t, k offshore i t, k onshore-offshore differential onshore premium capital controls pure default premium underbracealignl offshore i t, k i t, k f underbracealignl 7
8 Some analytical considerations Analysis abstracts from who does the arbitrage (domestic/foreign investor) Also from whether the arbitrageur has funds 8
9 Currency premium Argentina 2,000 Curre ncy Risk Pre mium from Argenti na's Ti me Deposit Rates 1,600 1, Mexican crisis Domingo Cavallo steps down Attack on the Hong Kong dollar Russia's default 0 01/04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/2001 Devaluation of the Brazilian real Financial Times article and elections Vice president resigns Changes of finance minister Cut of international credit 9
10 Currency premium Hong Kong Curre ncy Risk Pre mi um from Hong Kong's Forward Exchange Rates 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Mexican crisis Financial distress in South Korea Attack on the Thai baht 1st Attack on the Hong Kong dollar 2nd Attack 3rd Attack 4rd Attack /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/
11 CIP under no capital controls Argentina s NDF and no-arbitrage bands 11
12 CIP under no capital controls Argentina s NDF and no-arbitrage bands 12
13 CIP under no capital controls Spread of NDF over Currency Premium - Argentina 13
14 Effects of controls on alternative measure 60 ADR Premium and Capital Controls Arge nti na
15 CIP under no capital controls Spread of NDF over Currency Premium - Hong Kong 15
16 To sum up i t, k i t, k f fd t,k underbracealignl = i t, k offshore i t,k onshore-offshore differential 0 onshore premium capital controls 0, 0 pure default premium 0 0 underbracealignl offshore i t,k i t, k f underbracealignl 16
17 Other questions Clarification on effects of controls Controls on outflows would depress domestic rate? Controls on inflows would increase domestic rate? Can disentangle effects of different controls over time? List evolution of capital control regulations Explain MIBOR Pros and cons of data 17
18 Other questions Clarify some statements, as below When currencies are fully convertible, NDF markets are not observable When access to an onshore forward market is restricted, an offshore NDF market may develop When access to local currency securities markets is limited, the NDF forward rate will reflect the expected future spot rate of the currency 18
19 Other questions Clarify information in tables and figures Frequency Overlapping effects (e.g. 3-month rate on monthly data) Longer time series? Discuss magnitudes Discuss differences across tables What are the structural tests measuring? Why fluctuations in differential? Meaningful? Recurrent changes between positive and negative What explains the variation in AR(1)? Meaningful? What is the expected sign of regressors? Why not significant? 19
20 Conclusions Nice ideas already Also nice ideas for future work Promising research agenda Look forward to reading paper 20
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