Attilio Meucci. Fully Integrated Liquidity- and Market-Risk Model. PUBLISHED: Financial Analyst Journal, November 2012
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1 Liquidity-, The Funding- 19th Annual and Market-Risk Workshop on Financial Engineering: Quantitative Asset Management Columbia Engineering, November Attilio Meucci Fully Integrated Liquidity- and Market-Risk Model PUBLISHED: Financial Analyst Journal, November 2012 STUDY IT: (white paper and code) DO IT: Advanced Risk and Portfolio Management Bootcamp
2 Conceptual issues in liquidity modeling today time investment horizon
3 Conceptual issues in liquidity modeling profit portfolio value in scenario 1 time paths of market risk drivers portfolio value in scenario 2 portfolio value in scenario 3 loss investment horizon
4 Conceptual issues in liquidity modeling profit P&L distribution loss Tail risk
5 profit Conceptual issues in liquidity modeling value in scenario 1 unknown due to liquidity value in scenario 2 unknown due to liquidity value in scenario 3 unknown due to liquidity loss
6 Conceptual issues in liquidity modeling profit liquid securities display small price uncertainty loss
7 Conceptual issues in liquidity modeling profit illiquid securities display large price uncertainty loss
8 Conceptual issues in liquidity modeling profit liquidity hits only in undesirable direction loss
9 Conceptual issues in liquidity modeling profit liquidity hits harder when we are in trouble loss
10 Conceptual issues in liquidity modeling profit liquidity risk + market risk? loss
11 Market risk as Fully Flexible Probabilities (FFP) Paths of market risk drivers (interest rates, stock returns, implied volatility surfaces, ) probability of paths joint scenario of N risk drivers probability of joint scenario
12 Market risk as Fully Flexible Probabilities (FFP) Paths of market risk drivers (interest rates, stock returns, implied volatility surfaces, ) probability of paths Market P&L of each security
13 Market risk as Fully Flexible Probabilities (FFP) profit Paths of market risk drivers (interest rates, stock returns, implied volatility surfaces, ) probability of paths market risk Market P&L of each security Market P&L of portfolio loss
14 Liquidity as market impact Liquidity adjustment depends on - market conditions - liquidation policy Literature on market impact Market-dependent corrections (VIX, liquidity indices, ) Liquidity adjustment of portfolio
15 Total risk = market + liquidity portfolio total P&L market risk P&L liquidity risk adjustment market risk liquidity risk + =
16 Total risk = market + liquidity portfolio total P&L market risk P&L liquidity risk adjustment Total P&L distribution = mixture of bells with different centers and widths market risk liquidity risk + =
17 Illiquidity score portfolio total P&L market risk P&L liquidity risk adjustment Total P&L distribution = mixture of bells with different centers and widths market risk liquidity risk + = Illiquidity score Tail risk
18 Market-Liquidity risk decomposition portfolio total P&L market risk P&L liquidity risk adjustment Marginal contributions market risk liquidity risk + =
19 Market-Liquidity risk decomposition portfolio total P&L market risk P&L liquidity risk adjustment Marginal contributions market risk liquidity risk + =
20 Case studies
21 Case studies
22 Case studies
23 Case studies
24 References PUBLISHED: Financial Analyst Journal, November 2012 STUDY IT: (white papers and code) DO IT: Advanced Risk and Portfolio Management Bootcamp
Session 15, Flexible Probability Stress Testing. Moderator: Dan dibartolomeo. Presenter: Attilio Meucci, CFA, Ph.D.
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