Methodology Review Seminar

Transcription

1 etc.venues St.Paul s, London Methodology Review Seminar 16 November 2016

2 Methodology Review Seminar Welcome and Introduction Overview of the Structural Changes to Best's Credit Rating Methodology Greg Carter Managing Director, Analytics - EMEA Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

3 Agenda Methodology Review Seminar 14:25 Welcome and Introduction Overview of the Structural Changes to Best's Credit Rating Methodology Greg Carter, Managing Director, Analytics EMEA 14:30 Update on Ongoing Restructuring and Revised Presentation of Best's Credit Rating Methodology (BCRM) for (Re)Insurance Companies Carlos Wong-Fupuy, Senior Director & Understanding the New Universal BCAR & its Application Mathilde Jakobsen, Associate Director, Analytics 15:30 Q&A: Interactive Discussion 16:00 Close Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

4 Disclaimer AM Best Company (AMB) and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY COPYRIGHT LAW AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT AMB s PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT. All information contained herein is obtained by AMB from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors, however, all information contained herein is provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. Under no circumstances shall AMB have any liability to any person or entity for (a) any loss or damage in whole or in part caused by, resulting from, or relating to, any error (negligent or otherwise) or other circumstance or contingency within or outside the control of AMB or any of its directors, officers, employees or agents in connection with the procurement, collection, compilation, analysis, interpretation, communication, publication or delivery of any such information, or (b) any direct, indirect, special, consequential, compensatory or incidental damages whatsoever (including without limitation, lost profits), even if AMB is advised in advance of the possibility of such damages, resulting from the use of or inability to use, any such information. The credit ratings, financial reporting analysis, projections, and other observations, if any, constituting part of the information contained herein are, and must be construed solely as, statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or hold any securities, insurance policies, contracts or any other financial obligations, nor does it address the suitability of any particular financial obligation for a specific purpose or purchaser. Credit risk is the risk that an entity may not meet its contractual, financial obligations as they come due. Credit ratings do not address any other risk, including but not limited to, liquidity risk, market value risk or price volatility of rated securities. NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY SUCH RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY AMB IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER. Each credit rating or other opinion must be weighed solely as one factor in any investment or purchasing decision made by or on behalf of any user of the information contained herein, and each such user must accordingly make its own study and evaluation of each security or other financial obligation and of each issuer and guarantor of, and each provider of credit support for, each security or other financial obligation that it may consider purchasing, holding or selling. Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

5 Disclaimer US Securities Laws explicitly prohibit the issuance or maintenance of a credit rating where a person involved in the sales or marketing of a product or service of the CRA also participates in determining or monitoring the credit rating, or developing or approving procedures or methodologies used for determining the credit rating. No part of this presentation amounts to sales / marketing activity and A.M. Best s Rating Division employees are prohibited from participating in commercial discussions. Any queries of a commercial nature should be directed to A.M. Best s Market Development function. Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

6 Update on Ongoing Restructuring and Revised Presentation of Best s Credit Rating Methodology (BCRM) for (Re)Insurance Companies & Understanding the New Universal BCAR and Its Application Carlos Wong-Fupuy Senior Director Mathilde Jakobsen Associate Director, Analytics Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

7 The Building Block Approach The building blocks themselves will remain the same Components of the building blocks are currently being reviewed A.M. Best s Rating Process Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

8 Balance Sheet Strength Balance sheet strength is now broken down into several parts Rating unit balance sheet strength assessment BCAR Other qualitative and quantitative factors Holding company impact assessment Country risk impact Country Risk Rating Unit Balance Sheet Strength Assessment Holding Company Impact Assessment Balance Sheet Strength Baseline (e.g., bbb+) Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

9 Additional Balance Sheet Factors Country Risk Rating Unit Balance Sheet Strength Assessment Holding Company Impact Assessment Balance Sheet Strength Baseline BCAR Stress Tests Liquidity ALM Quality of Capital Quality of Reinsurance Reinsurance Dependence Appropriateness of Reinsurance Program Fungibility of Capital Internal Capital Models Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

10 Stochastic-Based BCAR Best s Capital Adequacy Ratio (BCAR) is a comprehensive quantitative tool that evaluates many of the risks to the balance sheet simultaneously and generates an overall estimate of the required level of capital to support those risks and compares it with available capital BCAR is a key tool in the assessment of balance sheet strength Not the sole determinant of balance sheet strength Not the sole determinant of the rating Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

11 Summary of Changes Not intended to change underlying view of the risks Not intended to change the main risk categories of the models Goals are to: Apply stochastic-based risk factors within the model, with factors generated using stochastic simulations from probability curves and ESG Incorporate company-specific detailed data from A.M. Best s Supplemental Rating Questionnaire and financial statements Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

12 Model Changes Using Value at Risk (VaR) metric VaR levels: 95, 99, 99.5, 99.6 VaR 99.8 also modelled but not included in balance sheet assessment Return Period (Years) Annual Probability (%) Confidence Level (%) Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

13 Model Changes New Metric VaR (Value at Risk) 100% Probability of Potential Scenario UW (Profit)/Loss as Percent of NPW 95% of potential scenarios Break even 5% in tail VaR 99.0 VaR 99.5 VaR does not tell us about what s in the tail so we need to look at more than one VaR 0% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0 10% 20% 30% 40% (Profit)/Loss as % of NPW VaR 95 UW Loss = 23% of NPW Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

14 Model Changes BCAR formula itself is changing BCAR = ( Available Capital - Net Required Capital) Available Capital x 100 Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

15 Model Changes But components are the same Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

16 Stochastic-Based Factors - Economic Scenario Generators A computer model that randomly simulates thousands of possible values for a variety of economic and financial variables over a series of selected timeframes Does not predict a path the economy will follow but instead produces a collection of possible paths including some that have not yet been observed Variables simulated include interest rates, stock market returns, bond defaults and real estate price movements No stochastic simulation is done within the BCAR model Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

17 Stochastic-Based Factors Investment Risk Bond risk factors are based on ESG-simulated bond defaults Charges reflect the ratings and maturity of the company s portfolio Baseline Charges Developed from ESG-Simulated Bond Defaults Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

18 Stochastic-Based Factors Investment Risk Equity risk factors are based on a global equity index Publicly Traded Common Stocks VaR Confidence Level Baseline Capital Factor 95.0% 25% 99.0% 39% 99.5% 45% 99.6% 46% Other investment classes are charged using a mixture of stochastic-based and fixed factors Factors adjusted by Country Investment Class (CIC) to capture increased illiquidity and volatility Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

19 Stochastic-Based Factors Interest Rate Risk Interest Rate Movements based on ESG Proposed One Year Rise in Interest Rate Current VaR 95 VaR 99 VaR 99.5 VaR 99.6 VaR BP 170 BP 240 BP 270 BP 280 BP 290 BP For non-life business, risk is driven by a sudden shock event Charge reflects liquidity need using greater of 1/100 all perils per occurrence gross PML and 10% of exposure For life business interest rate risk factors vary by product type and can be adjusted for asset/liability mismatch Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

20 Stochastic-Based Factors Reinsurance Recoverables Use stochastic simulations of reinsurer impairments to create tables of factors (based on portfolio of 20 reinsurers) Charges reflects credit quality and duration of recoverables Multiply recoverables by rating and year against impairment tables of factors (one table for each VaR) Factors reflect assumed recovery rate and adjustment to present value Required capital is still increased for reinsurance dependency Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

21 Stochastic-Based Factors Non-Life Reserve Risk Create four Industry Curves of potential reserve development for each line of business based on size of reserve Industry baseline factors correspond to the VaR levels on the curves Size of company s reserve determines industry baseline factors for that line of business Industry factors adjusted for company volatility/stability to get company-specific factors Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

22 Stochastic-Based Factors Non-Life Reserve Risk 99% CI 99.5% CI 99.8% CI Probability Reserve Development WORSE Industry Curve for Medium Personal Auto Liability Industry Factors for Medium PAL Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

23 Stochastic-Based Factors Non-Life Premium Risk Create four Industry Curves of potential UW profit / loss for each line of business based on size of NPW Industry baseline factors correspond to the VaR levels on the curves Size of company s NPW determines industry baseline factors for that line of business Adjust industry factors for company profitability (operating ratio relative to 100%) to get company-specific factors Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

24 Stochastic-Based Factors Non-Life Premium Risk Probability 99% CI 99.5% CI 99.8% CI Underwriting (Profit)/Loss WORSE Industry Curve for Small Workers Comp Industry Factors for Small WC Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

25 Stochastic-Based Factors Life Premium and Reserving Risk Mortality reserve risk factors applied to sum at risk net of reserves and reinsurance Baseline mortality factors vary by line of business and can be adjusted using a mortality table adjustment factor Longevity reserve risk factors applied to net reserves Baseline longevity factors vary by line of business Fixed charge of 2% for all VaRs applied to life premiums Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

26 Model Changes Catastrophe Risk Catastrophe risk as a separate NRC component (B8) Net PMLs (pre-tax) All perils combined per occurrence Included in covariance adjustment More diversification benefit (usually) so lower NRC Net Required Capital = (B1) 2 + (B2) 2 + (B3) 2 + (.5 * B4) 2 + [(.5 * B4) + (B5)] 2 + (B6) 2 + (B8) 2 + (B7) Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

27 Model Changes - Catastrophe Stress Test If a cat loss occurs, what would the BCAR scores look like? Reduce Available Capital (Reported Surplus) 1-in-100 year pre-tax Net PML from per occurrence, total all perils Including reinstatement premium Increase recoverables by 40% of ceded loss From 1-in-100 year pre-tax PML from per occurrence, total all perils Adjust credit risk factors if needed Increase net loss reserves by 40% of pre-tax net PML From 1-in-100 year pre-tax PML from per occurrence, total all perils See magnitude of BCAR scores drop at all confidence levels Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

28 Applying BCAR Scores Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

29 Applying BCAR Scores Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

30 Holding Company Impact Assessment Country Risk Rating Unit Balance Sheet Strength Assessment Holding Company Impact Assessment Balance Sheet Strength Baseline Consolidated BCAR Financial Leverage Operating Leverage Coverage Financial Flexibility/Liquidity Intangible Assets Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

31 Holding Company Impact Assessment Financial Leverage - Unadjusted / Adjusted Operating Leverage Coverage - Interest and Fixed-Charge Coverage Financial Flexibility / Liquidity - Analysis of Sources and Uses - Access to Capital - Asset Allocation / Investment Risk Intangible Assets Non-Rated and / or Non-Regulated Affiliates Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

32 Balance Sheet Strength Assessment Combined Balance Sheet Strength Assessment (Lead Rating Unit and Holding Company) Holding Company Positive Neutral Negative Very Negative Lead Rating Unit Strongest Strongest Strongest Very Strong Adequate Very Strong Strongest Very Strong Strong Weak Strong Very Strong Strong Adequate Very Weak Adequate Strong Adequate Weak Very Weak Weak Adequate Weak Very Weak Very Weak Very Weak Weak Very Weak Very Weak Very Weak Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

33 The Baseline Assessment Combined Balance Sheet Assessment (Rating Unit / Holding Company) Overall Balance Sheet Strength Assessment Country Risk Tier CRT-1 CRT-2 CRT-3 CRT-4 CRT-5 Strongest a+/a a+/a a/a- a-/bbb+ bbb+/bbb Very Strong a/a- a/a- a-/bbb+ bbb+/bbb bbb/bbb- Strong a-/bbb+ a-/bbb+ bbb+/bbb/bbb- bbb/bbb-/bb+ bbb-/bb+/bb Adequate bbb+/bbb/bbb- bbb+/bbb/bbb- bbb-/bb+/bb bb+/bb/bb- bb-/b+/b Weak bb+/bb/bb- bb+/bb/bb- bb-/b+/b b+/b/b- b/b-/ccc+ Very Weak b+ and below b+ and below b- and below ccc+ and below ccc and below Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

34 The Building Block Approach Balance Sheet Strength Rating unit balance sheet strength assessment - BCAR - Internal capital models - Other qualitative and quantitative factors Holding company impact Country risk impact Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

35 The Building Block Approach Balance Sheet Strength Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

36 The Building Block Approach Operating Performance Underwriting performance Investment performance Total operating earnings Prospective financial forecasts Other considerations Unique to LOB, region of operation, structure Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

37 The Building Block Approach Operating Performance Depending on a company s operating performance, the baseline can be adjusted up or down Using appropriate benchmark Looking at level, trend and volatility Operating Performance Assessment Adjustment (Notches) Key Operating Performance Characteristics Very Strong +2 Strong +1 Adequate 0 Weak -1 Very Weak -2/3 Historical operating performance is exceptionally strong and consistent. Trends are positive and prospective operating performance is expected to be exceptionally strong. Volatility of key metrics is low. Historical operating performance is strong and consistent. Trends are neutral / slightly positive and prospective operating performance is expected to be strong. Volatility of key metrics is low to moderate. Historical operating performance and trends are neutral. Prospective operating performance is expected to be neutral. Volatility of key metrics is moderate. Historical operating performance is poor. Trends are neutral / slightly negative and prospective operating performance is expected to be poor. Volatility of key metrics is high. Historical operating performance is very poor. Trends are negative and prospective operating performance is expected to be very poor. Volatility of key metrics is high. Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

38 The Building Block Approach - Business Profile Review key areas including: Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

39 The Building Block Approach - Business Profile Sub-assessments are qualitatively combined by analyst into a single business profile assessment Ultimate weights of each sub-assessment will vary depending on which metrics will have biggest impact on future financial strength Business Profile Assessment Adjustment (Notches) Very Favorable +2 Favorable +1 Neutral 0 Limited -1 Very Limited -2 Key Characteristics of Business Profile The company's market leadership position is unquestionable, demonstrated, and defensible with high brand recognition. Distribution is seen as a competitive advantage; business lines are non-correlated and generally lower risk. Its management capabilities and data management are very strong. The company is a market leader with strong business trends and good control over distribution. It has diversified operations in key markets that have high to moderate barriers to entry with low competition. It has a strong management team that is able to meet projections and utilize data effectively. The company is not a market leader, but is viewed as competitive in chosen markets. It has some concentration and / or limited control of distribution. It has moderate product risk but limited severity and frequency of loss. Its use of technology is evolving and its business spread of risk is adequate. The company has a lack of diversification in geographic and / or product lines; its control over distribution is limited and undifferentiated. It faces high / increasing competition with low barriers to entry and elevated product risk. Management is unable to utilize data effectively or consistently in business decisions. The company faces high competition and low barriers to entry. It has high concentration in commodity or higher-risk products with very limited geographic diversity. It has weak data management. Country risk may factor into its elevated business profile risks. Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

40 The Building Block Approach - ERM Analyst assessment of the overall risk management framework that is in place Analyst assessment of the rating unit s risk profile relative to its risk management capabilities Overall assessment of ERM Evidence of use test, process changes Performance under stressed environments ERM Assessment Adjustment (Notches) Key Characteristics of ERM Very Strong +1 The insurer's ERM framework is sophisticated, time/stress tested and embedded across the enterprise. Risk management capabilities are excellent and are suitable for the risk profile of the company. Adequate 0 The insurer's ERM framework is well developed and is adequate given the size and complexity of its operations. Risk management capabilities are good and are adequate for the risk profile of the company. Weak -1/2 The insurer's ERM framework is emerging and management is still developing formal risk protocols. Risk management capabilities are insufficient given the risk profile of the company. Very Weak -3/4 There is limited evidence of a formal ERM framework in place. Risk management capabilities contain severe deficiencies relative to the risk profile of the company. Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

41 The Building Block Approach - Comprehensive Adjustment Evaluation of key rating factors includes parameters which place limits on any one factor Recognizes a truly uncommon strength / weakness that is not captured through the rating process Comprehensive Adjustment Adjustment (Notches) Key Characteristics Positive +1 None 0 Negative -1 The company has uncommon strengths that exceed what has been captured throughout the rating process. The company's strengths and weaknesses have been accurately captured throughout the rating process. The company has uncommon weaknesses that exceed what has been captured throughout the rating process. Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

42 The Building Block Approach Recap: Lift / Drag A non-lead rating unit may be eligible for rating lift based on benefits it receives from being affiliated with the lead rating unit. Rating drag can also occur from negative impact of the lead rating unit on the non-lead unit. Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

43 The Building Block Approach (Example) Country Risk A.M. Best s Rating Process Balance Sheet Strength Baseline bbb+ Operating Performance Strong (+1) a- Business Profile Favorable (+1) a Enterprise Risk Management Adequate (+0) a Comprehensive Adjustment None (+0) a Rating Lift/ Drag N/A (+0) a Published Issuer Credit Rating Rating recommendation of a Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

44 Q&A: Interactive Discussion Carlos Wong-Fupuy Senior Director Mathilde Jakobsen Associate Director, Analytics Methodology Review Seminar 16 November

45 etc.venues St.Paul s, London Methodology Review Seminar 16 November 2016