A.M. Best Asia Pacific Portfolio Rating and Building Block Distributions
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1 A.M. Best Asia Pacific Portfolio Rating and Building Block Distributions Chi Yeung Lok Head of Analytics, Southeast Asia and Australasia A.M. Best Asia-Pacific (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. Christie Lee Head of Analytics, Northeast Asia A.M. Best Asia-Pacific Ltd.
2 Table of Content 1) Rating Distributions of Asia Portfolio - North East Asia - South East Asia 2) Building Block Distributions of Asia Portfolio 3) Conclusion, Q&A 2
3 Rating Distributions of Asia Portfolio
4 Northeast Asia Rating Distribution Key Market Characteristics China High growth. Heavily weighted to motor line. Marginal underwriting results. Japan/ Korea Japan: Slow domestic growth and overseas expansion. Korea: Priority is capital management, to get prepared for IFRS 17 and K-ICS in % 47% 31% 31% 14% 16% 4% 4% 4% 2% 0% 0% *excludes branches, entities not rated from A.M. Best s Asia Pacific offices A++ A+ A A - B++ B+ FSR at Sep 30, 2017 FSR at Sep 30,
5 Northeast Asia Rating Distribution Review Rating Actions Most rated companies have robust balance sheet strength. Cat events have limited capital impact to rated companies. 90% Affirmed Upgraded Assigned Under Review 2% 6% 2% Preview Most companies fundamentals are expected to be stable in the short to medium term. The negative outlooks are not concentrated in any country or market sector, but reflect the individual company s merits. Outlook Summary 0%4%0% Stable 96% Negative 5
6 South East Asia Rating Distribution Key Market Characteristics Mature Growth slowdown. Focus on efficiencies, risk management. Personal lines, infrastructure. Emerging Shift from commercial to personal lines. Commercial lines heavy, R/I. dependence. India: High growth, negative U/W margins. 42% 34% 29% 32% 16% 18% 11% 11% 3% 3% 0% 3% A+ A A- B++ B+ C++ FSR as at Sep 17 FSR as at Sep 18 *excludes branches, entities not rated from A.M. Best s Asia Pacific offices 6
7 South East Asia Rating Distribution Review Rating Actions Most companies have solid risk adjusted capitalization. Downgrades because of: Performance issues. Reserving issues. 85% 5% 8% 2% Affirmed Upgraded Downgraded Initial Preview Outlooks Underwriting margins still positive in most South East Asian markets but becoming slimmer. Sluggish property / infrastructure growth. Technology: channel, efficiency, risk management. India: diverging trends. 84% 16% Stable Negative 7
8 Building Block Distributions of Asia Portfolio
9 Since October 13, 2017 Maximum Balance Sheet Strength Baseline Operating Performance Business Profile Enterprise Risk Management Comprehensive Adjustment Rating Lift/Drag Issuer Credit Rating
10 Balance Sheet Strength: The Baseline Assessment Overall Balance Sheet Strength Assessment Combined Balance Sheet Assessment (Rating Unit / Holding Company) Country Risk Tier CRT-1 CRT-2 CRT-3 CRT-4 CRT-5 Strongest a+/a a+/a a/a- a-/bbb+ bbb+/bbb Very Strong a/a- a/a- a-/bbb+ bbb+/bbb bbb/bbb- Strong a-/bbb+ a-/bbb+ bbb+/bbb/bbb- bbb/bbb-/bb+ bbb-/bb+/bb Adequate bbb+/bbb/bbb- bbb+/bbb/bbb- bbb-/bb+/bb bb+/bb/bb- bb-/b+/b Weak bb+/bb/bb- bb+/bb/bb- bb-/b+/b b+/b/b- b/b-/ccc+ Very Weak b+ and below b+ and below b- and below ccc+ and below ccc and below 10
11 Rated NEA and SEA Markets by CRT CRT -1 CRT 2 CRT 3 CRT 4 CRT - 5 Singapore Hong Kong Malaysia India Bhutan Japan Thailand Indonesia Korea China Philippines Macau Vietnam Taiwan 11
12 Balance Sheet Strength: The Baseline Assessment Overall Balance Sheet Strength Assessment Combined Balance Sheet Assessment (Rating Unit / Holding Company) Country Risk Tier CRT-1 CRT-2 CRT-3 CRT-4 CRT-5 Strongest a+/a a+/a a/a- a-/bbb+ bbb+/bbb Very Strong a/a- a/a- a-/bbb+ bbb+/bbb bbb/bbb- Strong a-/bbb+ a-/bbb+ bbb+/bbb/bbb- bbb/bbb-/bb+ bbb-/bb+/bb Adequate bbb+/bbb/bbb- bbb+/bbb/bbb- bbb-/bb+/bb bb+/bb/bb- bb-/b+/b Weak bb+/bb/bb- bb+/bb/bb- bb-/b+/b b+/b/b- b/b-/ccc+ Very Weak b+ and below b+ and below b- and below ccc+ and below ccc and below 12
13 Balance Sheet Strength - BCAR A risk-adjusted capital measure BCAR = (Available Capital - Net Required Capital) (Available Capital) x 100 Net Required Capital: Investment Risk, Credit Risk, Reserve Risk, Net Premium Risk, Catastrophe PML, Business Risk, Covariance Adjustment Confidence Level: VaR 95% (1-in-20 years) VaR 99% (1-in-100 years) VaR 99.5% (1-in-200 years) VaR 99.6% (1-in-250 years) => Strongest BCAR Assessment if > 25% 13
14 BCAR Scores of Rated Asian Portfolio Companies NEA BCAR 99.6% (1-in-250) SEA BCAR 99.6% (1-in-250) Strongest Threshold 60 Strongest Threshold BCAR Score BCAR Score Reinsurer BCAR 99.6% (1-in-250) BCAR Score Strongest Threshold Does BCAR Assessment = Balance Sheet Strength Assessment? Source: A.M. Best data and research 14
15 BCAR Assessment = Balance Sheet Strength Assessment? Asia BCAR 99.6% vs Capital (Strong/ Very Strong Balance Sheet Strength) Plotting those with BCAR > 25% against capital size Is size the reason? Causality BCAR Score , ,000 1,000,000 10,000, Capital & Surplus (US '000s) Logorithm Scale Other Qualitative/ Quantitative Components: Appropriateness of RI Capital Structure/Leverage Holding Company Analysis Reinsurance Dependence Quality of Capital Financial Flexibility Reserve Quality Liquidity Receivables Stress Tests Quality of Assets ALM 15
16 Asia Balance Sheet Strength Balance Sheet Strength = BCAR + Other Qualitative/ Quantitative Components Asia Balance Sheet Strength Distribution Asia Balance Sheet Strength by Long-Term Issuer Credit Rating Adequate Strong Very Strong Strongest (%) aa+ aa aa- a+ a a- bbb+ bbb bbb- bb+ Strongest Very Strong Strong Adequate Source: A.M. Best data and research 16
17 Operating Performance Maximum Balance Sheet Strength Baseline Operating Performance Business Profile Enterprise Risk Management Comprehensive Adjustment Rating Lift/Drag Issuer Credit Rating
18 Operating Performance Underwriting Performance Investment Performance Total Operating Earnings Financial Forecasts Claims ratio Expense ratio Combined ratio Investment income ratio Yields Capital gains and losses Pre-tax margin ROE ROA ROP Prospective performance Ability to meet forecasts Sustainability 18
19 Asia Operating Performance Asia Operating Performance Notch Dist'n Asia Operating Performance Notch by Long-Term ICR Marginal -1 Adequate 0 Very Strong +2 Strong +1 (%) aa+ aa aa- a+ a a- bbb+ bbb bbb- bb+ Very Strong +2 Strong +1 Adequate 0 Marginal -1 Source: A.M. Best data and research 19
20 Business Profile Maximum Balance Sheet Strength Baseline Operating Performance Business Profile Enterprise Risk Management Comprehensive Adjustment Rating Lift/Drag Issuer Credit Rating
21 Asia Business Profile Pricing Sophistication & Data Quality Degree of Competition Market Position Concentrations Management Quality Product Risk Regulatory, Event & Market Risk Distribution Not intended to be prescriptive 21
22 Asia Business Profile Asia Business Profile Notch Distribution Asia Business Profile Notch by Long-Term ICR Limited -1 Very Favorable +2 Favorable (%) aa+ aa aa- a+ a a- bbb+ bbb bbb- bb+ Neutral 0 Very Favorable +2 Favorable +1 Neutral 0 Limited -1 Source: A.M. Best data and research 22
23 Enterprise Risk Management Maximum Balance Sheet Strength Baseline Operating Performance Business Profile Enterprise Risk Management Comprehensive Adjustment Rating Lift/Drag Issuer Credit Rating
24 Asia Enterprise Risk Management Asia ERM Notch Distribution Asia ERM Notch by Long-Term ICR Marginal -1 Weak -2 Appropriate 0 Very Strong +1 (%) aa+ aa aa- a+ a a- bbb+ bbb bbb- bb+ Very Strong +1 Appropriate 0 Marginal -1 Weak -2 Source: A.M. Best data and research 24
25 Putting it All Together Most common balance sheet assessments: aa+ CRT 1 & 2 Very Strong a / a- CRT 1 & 2 aa+ CRT 3 Very Strong a- / bbb+ Actual Rating Distribution by Country Risk Tier: CRT 3 aa+ CRT 4 Strong bbb / bbb- / bb+ CRT 4 aa aa aa aa- aa- aa- a+ a+ a+ Long Term ICR a a- bbb+ Long Term ICR a a- bbb+ Long Term ICR a a- bbb+ bbb bbb bbb bbb- bbb- bbb- b b b 0% 20% 40% 0% 20% 40% 0% 20% 40% 25
26 Conclusion Ratings depend on more than just balance sheet strength. Balance sheet strength depends on more than just BCAR score. Trends in operating performance, business profile, ERM just as important. 26
27 Questions?
28 Appendix Assessment Keywords and Notching 28
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