Rating Action: Moody's upgrades Swedbank and Swedbank Mortgage to A1; P-1 ratings affirmed Global Credit Research - 04 Jun 2013

Transcription

1 Rating Action: Moody's upgrades Swedbank and Swedbank Mortgage to A1; P-1 ratings affirmed Global Credit Research - 04 Jun 2013 London, 04 June Moody's Investors Service has today upgraded Swedbank AB's long-term debt and deposit and issuer rating to A1 from A2, following the raising of the bank's baseline credit assessment (BCA) to baa1 from baa2. The upgrade of Swedbank's ratings reflects that, in Moody's opinion, the bank's credit profile has strengthened as a result of (1) sustainable reduction of its risk profile and strengthening of the bank's corporate governance; (2) the continued reduction of problem loans and stabilisation of revenues; and (3) enhanced capital levels and improved funding profile. The rating agency has affirmed the bank's short-term Prime-1 ratings and the standalone bank financial strength rating (BFSR), which remains unchanged at C-. Moody's has also upgraded the ratings of the bank's subordinated debt, junior subordinated debt and non-cumulative preferred stock by one notch each, to (P)Baa2/Baa2, (P)Baa3 and Ba1(hyb), respectively. In line with the rating action on its parent Swedbank AB, Moody's has upgraded Swedbank Mortgage AB's senior unsecured and issuer ratings to A1 from A2. Swedbank Mortgage's Prime-1 short-term rating is affirmed. The outlook on Swedbank AB's and Swedbank Mortgage AB's ratings is stable. The Aaa ratings assigned to government-guaranteed debt issued by Swedbank and Swedbank Mortgage are not affected by this rating action. RATINGS RATIONALE SWEDBANK --- REDUCED RISK PROFILE AND ENHANCED CORPORATE GOVERNANCE Since 2009, Swedbank has introduced a new management team and all but one of the bank's board members have been replaced. In the last four years, Swedbank has refocused on its core markets of Sweden and the Baltics, and has not entered new markets. The bank has consistently reduced the risk in its Baltic subsidiaries, scaled-down its operations in Russia, and sold its Ukrainian subsidiary; the combined share of these operations reduced to 10% of net lending at year-end 2012, from 20% at year-end Within its core markets, Swedbank has reduced portfolio risks by, among others, tightening underwriting criteria for higher-risk mortgage lending, which has helped to reduce the average loan-to-value ratio of its residential mortgage book. We expect Swedbank to continue to operate with this more geographically focused and lower-risk business profile, stabilising its revenue generation compared to prior years. --- IMPROVING ASSET QUALITY AND STABILISATION OF REVENUE Swedbank has seen a strong improvement in its asset quality in recent years, which has prompted improvements in profitability; in particular the turned-around Baltic operations have been a key driver in returning the group to profitability. Problem loans have decreased to 0.90% of gross loans at end-march 2013, from 3.11% at year-end 2009, and after booking losses from Q to Q2 2010, the bank's Baltic operations returned to profit in Q Aside from a relapse in Q when goodwill was written down in Latvia, these operations have remained profitable since then.the Swedish retail franchise remains strong and contributed 62% of net profits since 2010 on a pre-tax profit basis. ---ENHANCED CAPITALISATION AND FUNDING PROFILE In addition, Moody's says that the bank's capitalisation has improved materially since the financial crisis, mainly as a result of rights issues in 2008 and 2009, retained profits, and a reduction in risk-weighted assets due to the bank's lower exposure in the Baltic countries, positive rating migrations, and capital optimisation. Swedbank reports good capital levels, relative to European peers, with Tier 1 capital and total capital ratios as of end-march 2013 (in accordance with Basel II with transitional floors) of 10.9% and 11.6%, respectively. With respect to full

2 Basel III, the bank reports these ratios at 17.8% and 19.4%, respectively. Although Swedbank's increased its dividend policy in early 2013 to distribute 75% of income, from 50% previously, we expect capitalisation to remain a rating strength. Moody's says that Swedbank's funding profile has been strengthened and the bank has issued debt without a government guarantee since July It subsequently left the government support programme in April Swedbank has progressively reduced its short-term funding sources and it has refinanced maturing debt with longer maturities. This has lengthened the average maturity of its market financing to 33 months at year-end 2012 from 14 months in Reliance on covered bonds has increased, up to almost 35% of total funding at year-end 2012, from about 19% at end-2008, but we believe that Swedbank's market funding access has shown considerable improvement. Swedbank's A1 long-term debt and deposit ratings are supported by (1) the bank's baa1 BCA; and (2) the Aaa local-currency deposit ceiling of Sweden, the underlying support provider. In view of Swedbank's strong market position and importance to the payments system, Moody's assesses a very high probability of systemic support for the bank in the event of a stress situation, resulting in a three-notch uplift for the A1 deposit rating from the baa1 BCA. The upgrade of Swedbank's subordinated debt, junior subordinated debt and non-cumulative preferred stock ratings reflects Moody's methodology and guidelines, notching these ratings off the bank's BCA. WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING -- UP The stable outlook assigned to Swedbank's ratings after today's upgrade reflects our expectation that upward pressure on the ratings is limited in the short to medium-term. Nevertheless, Swedbank's ratings could see positive pressure as a result of a further improvement in the bank's risk appetite, culture, and governance, combined with (i) reduced reliance on market funding, and/or continued extension of the bank's funding maturity profile combined with strong liquidity levels while limiting the structural subordination of senior unsecured creditors, (ii) maintained improvement in core earnings without increasing risk profile and/or (iii) continued reductions of asset vulnerabilities, including the bank's Baltic operations, exposure to commercial real estate and exposure to high loan-to-value and interest only residential loans. WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING -- DOWN The bank's ratings could see negative pressure if (i) there is a significant macroeconomic deterioration in its main operating markets leading to a weakening of performance, (ii) the bank increases reliance on market funding, or the maturity profile of existing funding deteriorates (iii) there are signs of pressure on profits, e.g. arising from weakening economic stability, franchise value and/or risk positioning, and/or (iv) the bank's risk profile increases due to increased exposures to more volatile sectors. SWEDBANK MORTGAGE The upgrade of Swedbank Mortgage's senior unsecured debt and issuer ratings reflects the full, unconditional and irrevocable guarantee this entity receives from its parent Swedbank. The guarantee covers all non-subordinated debt instruments issued by Swedbank Mortgage. The data referred to in this press release is generally sourced from Swedbank's annual report and fact book for 2012, as well as from annual reports and fact books for earlier years. The principal methodology used in these ratings was Global Banks published in May Please see the Credit Policy page on for a copy of this methodology. Headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden, Swedbank AB reported total consolidated assets of SEK1,917 billion (EUR229 billion) at the end of March REGULATORY DISCLOSURES For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings,

3 this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity. Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review. Please see for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating. Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating. Oscar Heemskerk VP - Senior Credit Officer Financial Institutions Group Moody's Investors Service Ltd. One Canada Square Canary Wharf London E14 5FA United Kingdom Simon Harris MD - Financial Institutions Financial Institutions Group Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service Ltd. One Canada Square Canary Wharf London E14 5FA United Kingdom 2013 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved. CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, INC. ("MIS") AND ITS AFFILIATES ARE MOODY'S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES, AND CREDIT RATINGS AND RESEARCH

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