SEM, BETTA and Beyond Approach to Interconnector Modelling
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1 SEM, BETTA and Beyond Approach to Interconnector Modelling Energy Exemplar EU Conference Lisbon June 17 th 2013 Marie-Therese Campbell Dr. Eoin Clifford
2 Background Interconnector Modelling Difficult to master! Do modelled flows reflect reality? Trading Behaviour Price convergence, arbitrage, risk premiums Wheeling charges
3 Introduction Moyle 250 import/export Half of original capacity EWIC 500 import/export Fully operational since May Future IC to France? Renewable Export projects to UK
4 SEM & BETTA SEM BETTA Ireland & Northern Ireland Transparent bidding Short Run Marginal Cost, Start- up costs Capacity Payments 3 gate closures Ex-post Pricing England, Scotland, & Wales Non-transparent power trades Bilateral contracts Power Exchange and Balancing Market Hourly gate closures Ex-ante Pricing
5 Modelling challenges Representing BETTA Game Theory or Perfect Competition? APX as reference for prices? Modelling bilateral contracts? Lack of transparency SEM & BETTA BETTA = 10 x SEM 6 GW vs 60 GW Will this affect optimisation? We only care about IC flows!
6 24/10/ /12/ /02/ /04/ /06/ /08/ /10/ /12/ /02/ /04/ /06/ /08/ /10/ /12/ /02/ /04/ /06/ /08/ /10/ /12/ /02/ /04/ /06/ /08/ /10/ /12/2012 Clean Spark Spreads 30 Clean Spark Spreads UK Price GB MWh Source: Thomson Reuters
7 Wheeling Charges Imports SP + uplift + CPM IC charges σ > GBP Exports SP + uplift + CPM + IC charges + σ < GBP Components SEM shadow price (SP) GB Price (GBP) SEM capacity payments (CPM) Uplift Risk (σ) IC charges
8 Wheeling Charges on Interconnectors Wheeling Charges Wheeling charge forward Wheeling charge with 5 risk premium Wheeling charge with 10 risk premium Wheeling charge back Wheeling charge back with 5 risk premium Wheeling charge back with 10 risk premium Hour of Day
9 Imports (GWh) Carbon Price Floor Study IC Flows SEM imports - No CPF SEM exports - No CPF SEM imports - with CPF SEM exports - with CPF
10 Moyle flow (MW) Plexos Study Moyle Flows 250 Exports are positive flows Date
11 EWIC flow (MW) Plexos Study EWIC Flows 600 Exports are positive flows Date
12 Reality - Moyle
13 Reality - Moyle Moyle Always importing Flows often not price reflective SEM committee study It is clear that the correlation between the price differential and flows across Moyle was not close
14 Other Studies McInerney & Bunn Examined transmission rights and flows on Moyle SEM committee study Significant power flows against the efficient price spread direction
15 Reality - Moyle Prices Why are flows not price dependent? Congestion issue? Cheap gen in Scotland Flows between Scotland and England limited Will be fixed over next few years Wouldn t effect EWIC
16 Imports to SEM (MW) Reality - EWIC Same story Full imports all day Imports of 300 MW during night Dip at 6 a.m. Limited experience Fully operational for 1 month only Half capacity for 5 months EWIC flows May Hour of day
17 Price ( /MWh) Prices May averages APX SEM Shadow Price Hour of Day
18 Price ( /MWh) Prices May averages Hour of Day APX SEM Shadow Price +Uplift +CPM
19 Reality EWIC Trader bids Traders bidding in different prices Not reflective of APX prices or gen costs Why? Can they not access APX prices? Ex-post pricing creates too much risk? Hedging strategies? Avoiding shutdowns?
20 System Operation High imports Reserve issues Curtailment of renewables Countertrading Countertrading agreements under discussion with NatGrid UK Third party now being used Accuracy of wind forecasting still an issue
21 Plexos modelling Market Flows Generate profile based on historic data Fix flows to profile using Line.Fixed Flow Countertrading Use constraint to fix flows Penalty Quantity represents countertrading volume Penalty Price gives associated cost
22 Discussion Modelling trader behaviour? Replace interconnector up into series of lines Each line represents trader Dummy generator with price based on trader behaviour As yet untested Future trading Will trader behaviour change in the future? How will carbon price in GB affect things? Trading with France? Target model? All suggestions welcome!
23
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