FEEDBACK TUTORIAL LETTER 1ST SEMESTER 2017 ASSIGNMENT 2 QUANTITATIVE METHODS [QTM511S]

Transcription

1 FEEDBACK TUTORIAL LETTER 1ST SEMESTER 017 ASSIGNMENT [] 1

2 COURSE: COURSE CODE: FEEDBACK TUTORIAL LETTER: 05/017 DATE: 05/ 017 Dear Student Congratulations on the successful completion of your first assignment for semester We are convinced the study guide gave you enough exposure to applications of Quantitative methods skills in daily financial transactions. We have no doubts that working through the questions must have in no small way improved on your statistical, analytical and other calculation skills. SOME COMMON MISTAKES WE wish to point out the following general mistake in this assignment: Note that question was not done correctly. Make sure that you revise carefully the concept on Time series. The attached memoranda are for you to see the step by step methods of realising the final calculations and will also prepare you towards the end of June examinations. Regards, Dr. I. Ajibola Tel iajibola@nust.na Mr. D. Ntirampeba Tel dntirampeba@nust.na 1

3 ASSIGNMENT Question 1 [0 marks] [] [] [3] [3] [4] 78 Two events A and B are independent if the occurrence of event A has nothing to do with occurrence of event B or vice versa. This implies that the conditional probability of B given A is the same as the unconditional probability of B. i.e. P B A P B 1.3. []. [] 1.4. Mutually exclusive events []

4 Question [30 marks] Daily turnover 500-< < < < < < Tot x fx i i n On average, that daily turnover of the fish shop per outlet is estimated to be [5] Daily turnover 500-< < < < < <

5 .. Median L n c f F n 300 Median class = 150, 150 falls within interval < M e d ia n % of the outlets have their daily turnover less than , whereas the other 50%50% of the outlets have their daily turnover greater than [5] M l h o M o f f f = f f [4].4. = Q 1 L q1 1n c 4 f F Lower quartile class : n , 75 falls within interval < Q [4] Q 3 L q 3 3 n c 4 f F Upper quartile class : 3 n , 5 falls within interval < Q [4]

6 s CV fx i i fx i i n 300 s n s % x [8] Question 3[16 marks] Cartridge Unit price ( Quantity used Unity price Quantity used( ) HQ HQ HQ HQ Tot Price relative for HQ6= 1 p p % % The price index for a HQ6 stands at This shows that the price of a HQ6 has increased by 11.0% since 008. [] 3. Quantity relative for HQ3= 1 q q % % %. 10 This shows that the quantity of a HQ3 has increased by 10 % since 008 [] 5

7 3.3 Laspeyres price index = pq 1 0 p q % % % [5] If quantities are held constant at 008(base period) levels, the composite cost index is This means that the cost of of printer cartridges have decreased by, on average, by 1.18 % since 008. [5] 3.4 Paasche s quantity index= pq 1 1 pq % % % [5] If prices are held constant at current period levels (008), the quantities of printer cartridges have increased by 3.87 % since 008. [5] 3.5 p % % % p This means that on aggregate, prices of 010 are 0.35 % higher than those of 008. [] 6

8 QUESTION 4 [34 marks] Year Quarter Sales period- MA Seasonal ratio Seasonal Deseasonalised index Interpretation of the first de-seasonilised index (6.180): 007 quarter 1 sales would have been higher at 6.180, instead of the actual sales of 5, had seasonal influences not been present. 7

9 Quarter Total Year Seasonal media AF Quarter Q1 Median seasonal index AF Seasonal indexes Q Q Q

10 4.4 [10 marks] Zero-sum method: x ( n 1) (1 6 1) Period Output (Y ) Time ( x ) Q1 Q Q3 Q4 Q1 Q Q3 Q4 Q1 Q Q3 Q4 Q1 Q Q3 Q y 1148 x 0 x 1360 x xy xy 800 9

11 Trend Line formula: y bx a xy 800 S lo p e b x 1360 y 1148 y in t e r c e p t a n 16 Trend Line: y x [ marks] Quarter in 01: T yˆ ( [3 marks] The seasonally-adjusted trend estimate is calculated using T where the S is the seasonal index for the specific period (Q) S. Thus, T S Total: [100 marks] 10