Fitch Analytical Comparative Tool (FACT): U.S. Toll Roads

Transcription

1 Fitch Analytical Comparative Tool (FACT): U.S. Toll Roads Criteria Overview and FACT Walkthrough Tanya Langman April 2018

2 Access FACT and Key Research Click here for complimentary access to the U.S. Toll Roads - Fitch Analytical Comparative Tool (FACT) Or visit: Also Available: Peer Review of U.S. Toll Roads (Attribute Assessments, Metrics & Ratings) Managed Lanes Peer Review 1

3 Toll Roads Criteria Scope Operating system (Brownfield) / New construction with completion risk (Greenfield) Ownership / Governance / Legal Status Publicly owned and operated / Public Private Partnership (P3) / Private Ownership Facility types Large Networks: Turnpikes Large Expressway Systems Major Urban Bridge Systems Small Networks: Small Expressway Systems Standalone Facilities International Bridge Crossings Managed Lanes 2

4 U.S. Toll Roads Portfolio Over 90% of the U.S. Toll Roads ratings have Stable Rating Outlooks Standard Toll Roads: 54 public ratings on 40 issuers Managed Lanes: 24 public ratings on 13 projects 6 Managed Lanes Facilities under construction 8 Managed Lanes Facilities are operated under a P3 concession framework 3

5 Key Rating Factors Completion Risk Debt Service Revenue Risk: Volume Toll Road Credit Rating Revenue Risk: Price Infrastructure Development/ Renewal Assessment of either: Stronger, Midrange or Weaker Revenue Risk: Most direct relative influence Debt Service Risk: Considers metrics in the context of the overall risk profile Debt Structure Completion Risk: Projects under construction 4

6 Benchmarks: Volume and Financial Flexibility Revenue Risk: Volume Local and regional economy. Type of corridor and competition. Traffic volume volatility. Traffic composition. Elasticity. Toll rate per mile or average toll. Value of Time. Financial Analysis Net debt/cfads. DSCR/LLCR/PMICR/PLCR. Leverage limitations. MADS coverage. Days cash on hand. 5

7 Peer Analysis Criteria Indicative Rating Guidance is split by facility type (Large vs. Small Networks) Peers: Project with similar characteristics and traffic profiles Stand-alone facility is NOT comparable with a monopolistic bridge system or a national highway link 6

8 FACT Overview 7

9 Overview: Fitch Analytical Comparative Tool (FACT) What is FACT? FACT is an interactive, sector-specific comparative tool that facilitates detailed analysis of Fitch-rated portfolio in excel format. The tool contains historical statistics for the sector and allows comparison of key metric performance between individual issuers. Ratings are put into context by historical medians and issuer-specific key operational and financial metrics. FACT Link to Fitch Ratings Website: Click here for complimentary access to the U.S. Toll Roads - Fitch Analytical Comparative Tool (FACT) 8

10 Overview: Fitch Analytical Comparative Tool (FACT) The 2017 U.S. Toll Roads FACT: Contains data for 35 publicly rated operating toll road issuers. Historical data for 9 key metrics is available for fiscal years Medians viewed: sector-wide or by rating category, facility type, asset type, and region. 4 Rating Categories: AA, A, BBB and NIG 2 Facility Types: Large and Small Networks 6 Asset Types: Turnpike, Large Expressway, Monopolistic Bridge System, Small Expressway, International Bridge Systems, Stand-Alone 5 Regions: Midwest, Northeast, Southeast, Southwest, West 9

11 FACT: Cover Page 10

12 Tab 1: Portfolio Statistics 11

13 Portfolio Statistics - Operational The first portion of the Portfolio Statistics sheet allows the user to view 5 fiscal years of operational and financial data for issuers. For more specific samples, filtering is available by rating category, facility type (large or small networks), and region. Statistics are presented on median and total basis. 12

14 Portfolio Statistics - Financial 13

15 Portfolio Statistics Trend Compare The second portion allows the user to compare historical trends for a selected metric for two asset types or an individual asset type compared with the entire portfolio. 14

16 Portfolio Statistics Trend Compare 15

17 Portfolio Statistics Trend Compare 16

18 Toll Rate Comparison on Per Mile Basis Source: Issuers. The peak period toll rate per mile is a weighted average calculation provided by CDM Smith as of June

19 Tab 2: Issuer Metrics 18

20 Issuer Metrics The first portion of the Issuer Metrics sheet allows the user to generate the profile of a selected issuer. The diamond charts present a visualization of the issuer s key risk factors. 19

21 Issuer Metrics Based on the selected issuer, the second portion of the sheet provides the annual performance for 9 key metrics. On the right, summary statistics are presented for a particular metric of interest. 20

22 Tab 3: Peer Comparison 21

23 Peer Comparison The first portion of the Peer Comparison sheet generates a comparison of up to four chosen issuers profiles and their key risk factors. 22

24 Peer Comparison Operating Metrics Based on the four chosen issuers, the second portion of the sheet shows a graphical comparison of the issuers key metrics over time, compared to a selected median. 23

25 Peer Comparison Financial Metrics 24

26 Non-Peer Comparison - Operating Metrics 25

27 Non-Peer Comparison - Financial Metrics 26

28 Tab 4: Percentile Ranks 27

29 Percentile Ranks A representation of an issuer s key metrics relative to a median group. 28

30 6 Tab 5: Glossary 29

31 Glossary The final sheet gives definitions and calculations for the key metrics used throughout the tool. 30

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