Partnerships in Transportation Workshop Transportation PPPs beyond Toll Roads
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1 TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES PPP ADVISORY Partnerships in Transportation Workshop Transportation PPPs beyond Toll Roads Alistair SAWERS, Head of Transport, PPP Advisory, Ernst & Young 1
2 Introduction Brownfield Toll Road Concessions / Asset Sales leading PPP market but for how long?» Limited number to sell» Proceeds easily used up» Untolled assets need refurbishment» Strong need for greenfieldprojects Remedy by tolling existing or new roads?» Raises additional revenue without resort to Gas Tax» Causes major political or policy problems in some States» Tolls also may not be appropriate or efficient 2
3 Suitability for Sectors for User Fees Successful User fee PPPs Existing Turnpikes with congestion Greenfield toll roads with strong corridor demand Maritime Ports/Terminals Airports/ Terminals Freight Rail Intermodal Freight facilities Alternative Solutions needed Highways with policy issues Highways with insufficient traffic Passenger Rail Public Transit Ferry services 3
4 Problems and Policy Issues for User Fees Insufficient revenue / volume» Overall» Long traffic ramp up» Phased opening expected Incentives only focused on revenue optimization Diversion undesirable» Congestion relief (Port of Miami Tunnel)» Tourism» Welfare / Politics Competing facilities issue» Fetters ability to build new» Bidders apply risk premium Restricts other risk transfers» Private sector less likely to take complex construction risk» Makes underlying financing more expensive» No mechanism to share risks Political/ user resistance» New tolls» Long Concession 4
5 Alternatives to Tolls Shadow Tolls Payment from Public Sector based on» Traffic counts» Toll rate per vehicle» Length of road Tolls vary» By vehicle type» By bands of overall traffic levels» Over time / when debt repaid Variants based on congestion levels Availability Payment Payment for a service Focus on output specification Payment based on:» Available lane miles» Impact of maintenance closures» Quality measures» Traffic levels exceeding maintenance specs» Incentives or compensation: Safety improvements Subcontracting 5
6 Tolls are NOT the only way Shadow Tolls Availability Payments Avoid diversion Allows traffic risk sharing Competing roads just require recalibration Incentive to minimize maintenance delays Highly complex Harder to evaluate Financing still prices traffic risk Avoid diversion Retain upside if charging user fees Can incentivize other actions through PM Financing does not price traffic risk Risks can be shared through PM Public sector takes downside traffic risk Evaluating risk transfer Balance sheet issues 6
7 Real Tolls Shadow Tolls Australia Belgium Canada Chile Croatia Czech Republic Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Netherlands Norway Philippines Poland Portugal South Africa Spain UK Availability Precedents Canada» Started with toll projects» Now mainly availability» Sea to Sky Macquarie & Kiewit Norway» Roads Authority retained tolls» Paid for availability UK» Started with toll bridges» Invented shadow tolls» Now mainly availability USA» Nearest precedent MA Route 3 Connector» Port of Miami Tunnel» BART -Oakland Airport Connector 7
8 Issues for Availability Payment PPPs Payment mechanism» Incentives» Complexity» Underlying cost of funds Evaluation methodology Measuring value for money» Comparisons with other forms of Procurement Measuring Affordability 8
9 Financing for Availability Payment PPPs Taxable Debt or PABs Base availability payment near government risk» Aggressive cover ratios ( x) & high gearing targeting BBB» Low pricing especially with credit insurance from Monoline» Terms more relaxed» Potential to match CPI indexation Construction & performance risk» Contractor support and equity first in line but» Residual project risk makes debt more expensive and puts it in a different market 9
10 Value for Money Objectives & Risk are the key» Greenfield toll road concessions transfer a lot of risk» In extremis these are bad value (for toll payers) or just unfinanceable» Availability payments allow these risks to be shared Affordability is an issue for all options as project revenue sources are the same» User Fees/ Tolls» Availability Payment / Grants / Shadow Tolls from: Gas Tax Other State Taxation Federal Grants» Tax exemptions (on bonds or tax depreciation on asset) 10
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