U.S. Inflation Concerns Appear Misguided

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1 Craig P. Holke Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS U.S. Inflation Concerns Appear Misguided October 9, 2018 Key takeaways» Strong U.S. economic growth and a tight labor market historically have led to higher inflation. Yet, we currently see inflation and inflation expectations settling at a relatively lower level.» According to research by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, longer-term inflation expectations have been a good representation of future inflation trends. What it may mean for investors» We believe that low inflation could benefit equities through lower costs and potentially higher margins. U.S. inflation continues to run lower than would be expected Recent data continue to reflect strong economic growth, and expectations are for that to remain in place in The U.S. labor market remains the strongest in decades, and unemployment is at the lowest level since Growth this strong in a tight labor market historically has led to higher U.S. inflation. Yet, although inflation has risen to moderate levels, it remains persistently below levels corresponding to the current economic environment. What is it about the current economy with its strong growth and low unemployment that is not resulting in higher inflation levels? Several factors are acting as headwinds to U.S. inflation today. Wage growth has accelerated, but remains below levels associated with current unemployment levels. 1 Worker productivity has remained low since the last recession. Business investment was lacking for years, due to uncertainty around future economic growth. Low productivity is associated with slower wage growth, as workers are unable to demand higher compensation. Global growth has been slower-than-anticipated. While growth in the U.S. has accelerated this year, other major economies are expected to slow. 1 Just How Strong is the U.S. Labor Market?, Craig Holke, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Global Perspectives, August 28, Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 1 of 5

2 These factors, along with steady Federal Reserve policy coming out of the last U.S. recession, have led to individuals expecting lower inflation in the future. Chart 1 depicts investor expectations for inflation as calculated by the Federal Reserve s five-year forward breakeven inflation rate. While they have been somewhat volatile, inflation expectations held somewhat steady in a range between 2 and 3% between 2001 and Following a sharp decline in 2014, inflation expectations have steadied and have settled around a new level close to 2%. Chart 1. Inflation expectations have settled closer to 2% Average = 2.75% 2.0 Average = 1.96% 1.0 Sources: Federal Reserve, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, October 4, Series is the Federal Reserve s five-year forward breakeven inflation index. The series measures the difference between the U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) curve and the nominal U.S. Treasury curve to determine inflation levels for which investors require compensation. Taking another look, Chart 2 depicts the difference in short-term versus longer-term inflation expectations of professional forecasters. Long-term inflation expectations had held fairly steady at approximately % through the end of the last U.S. recession. They then trended downward until they settled in the current range of 2.2 to 2.3%. According to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, longer-term inflation expectations have been representative of the actual trend in inflation. Thus, current estimates infer that U.S. inflation should remain lower in the near term Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 2 of 5

3 Chart 2. Longer-term U.S. inflation expectations have settled lower year Current year Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, October 4, Compares the Survey of Professional Forecasters 1- year and 10-year Consumer Price Inflation forecasts. Data is quarterly between the fourth quarter of 2001 and the third quarter of Market implications of lower inflation Solid growth, with stable and lower U.S. inflation, likely will benefit equity markets. Consumers are left with more money to spend, as inflation eats up less of their total wages. Equities also may benefit as U.S. companies have lower costs from slower rising input prices, and at least steady or higher margins Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 3 of 5

4 Economic Calendar Date Country Report Estimate Previous 10/9/2018 GERMANY Trade Balance 16.3b 16.5b 10/9/2018 JAPAN Core Machine Orders MoM -3.70% 11.00% 10/10/2018 UNITED KINGDOM Industrial Production MoM 0.10% 0.10% 10/10/2018 JAPAN PPI YoY 2.90% 3.00% 10/11/2018 FRANCE CPI MoM -0.20% -0.20% 10/11/2018 US CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY % 10/11/2018 US CPI Core Index SA /11/2018 US CPI Index NSA /11/2018 US Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY /12/2018 GERMANY CPI YoY 2.30% 2.30% 10/12/2018 INDIA Industrial Production YoY % 10/12/2018 US Import Price Index ex Petroleum % 10/12/2018 US Export Price Index YoY % 10/12/2018 US U. of Mich. Current Conditions /12/2018 US Import Price Index YoY % 10/12/2018 US U. of Mich. Sentiment /14/2018 UNITED KINGDOM Rightmove House Prices YoY % 10/15/2018 JAPAN Industrial Production MoM % 10/15/2018 CHINA CPI YoY % 10/15/2018 US Retail Sales Advance MoM % 10/15/2018 US Empire Manufacturing /15/2018 US Business Inventories % 10/15/2018 US Retail Sales Control Group % 10/16/2018 GERMANY ZEW Survey Expectations /16/2018 AUSTRALIA Westpac Leading Index MoM % 10/16/2018 US Industrial Production MoM % 10/16/2018 US Net Long-term TIC Flows -- $74.8b 10/16/2018 US Capacity Utilization % 10/16/2018 US NAHB Housing Market Index /16/2018 US JOLTS Job Openings Source: Bloomberg, as of October 5, Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 4 of 5

5 Risk Considerations Each asset class has its own risk and return characteristics. The level of risk associated with a particular investment or asset class generally correlates with the level of return the investment or asset class might achieve. Equity securities are subject to market risk which means their value may fluctuate in response to general economic and market conditions and the perception of individual issuers. Investments in equity securities are generally more volatile than other types of securities. General Disclosures Global Investment Strategy (GIS) is a division of Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Inc. (WFII). WFII is a registered investment adviser and wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A., a bank affiliate of Wells Fargo & Company. The information in this report was prepared by Global Investment Strategy. Opinions represent GIS opinion as of the date of this report and are for general information purposes only and are not intended to predict or guarantee the future performance of any individual security, market sector or the markets generally. GIS does not undertake to advise you of any change in its opinions or the information contained in this report. Wells Fargo & Company affiliates may issue reports or have opinions that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, this report. The information contained herein constitutes general information and is not directed to, designed for, or individually tailored to, any particular investor or potential investor. This report is not intended to be a client-specific suitability analysis or recommendation, an offer to participate in any investment, or a recommendation to buy, hold or sell securities. Do not use this report as the sole basis for investment decisions. Do not select an asset class or investment product based on performance alone. Consider all relevant information, including your existing portfolio, investment objectives, risk tolerance, liquidity needs and investment time horizon. Wells Fargo Advisors is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, but is not licensed or registered with any financial services regulatory authority outside of the U.S. Non-U.S. residents who maintain U.S.-based financial services account(s) with Wells Fargo Advisors may not be afforded certain protections conferred by legislation and regulations in their country of residence in respect of any investments, investment transactions or communications made with Wells Fargo Advisors. Wells Fargo Advisors is a trade name used by Wells Fargo Clearing Services, LLC and Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network, LLC, Members SIPC, separate registered broker-dealers and non-bank affiliates of Wells Fargo & Company. CAR Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 5 of 5