CONSULTANT BRIEFING. New York City April 20, Chris Riley, Aon Hewitt John Molesphini, evestment Jerrod Stoller, evestment
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1 CONSULTANT BRIEFING New York City April 20, 2017 Chris Riley, Aon Hewitt John Molesphini, evestment Jerrod Stoller, evestment
2 Fee Pressure Low Yield 2016 BREXIT Market Volatility Active vs. Passive Presidential Election
3 How Managers Describe their Investment Process to the Marketplace Firm A s small cap value strategy seeks to capitalize on their expertise in small cap U.S. equities, applying internally generated fundamental research and bottom-up stock selection in creating a defined small cap value portfolio. Firm A believes that a disciplined and consistent approach to fundamental, bottom-up research leads to superior long-term investment performance.
4 How Managers Describe their Investment Process to the Marketplace Disciplined, structured approach Research-intensive process -- in-house research Idea generation Bottom-up, fundamental analysis Conviction Confidence Systematic application of data insights
5 How Distribution Teams Should Describe their Process within the Firm Disciplined, structured approach Research-intensive process -- in-house research Idea generation Bottom-up, fundamental analysis Conviction Confidence Systematic application of data insights
6 3 factors critical to winning and retaining assets Universe Health Product Strategy Fund Performance Portfolio Managers Distribution Sales / Marketing RFP Team Consultant Relations
7 Product Strategy Marketing Consultant Relations Data Sales RFP Team Client Service An integrated process with a consistent message
8 Gaining an Understanding of Your Competitive Landscape Plan Viewing Yourself Through the Lens of an Investor Perception Identifying Relevant Opportunities Prospect Preparing for Success Position Taking Action on Your Opportunities Pursue
9 PLAN Gaining an Understanding of Your Competitive Landscape
10 10 Source: State of Connecticut, AON Hewitt, Public Plan IQ
11 Firm Strategy - Predict Future Cash Flows *Bubble size = revenue (AUM x management fees) $20,000 $2,000 $200 AUM ($m) Flow Forecast Rating $ Outflow Inflow
12 Source: RVK, SBCERS, Public Plan IQ 12
13 Opportunities for Offense and Defense - Equity Universe Q Inst. AUM (USD BN) 4Q'16 Net Inst. Flows (USD BN) 4Q'16 Gross Inflows 4Q'16 Gross Outflows FY 2016 Change FY 2015 Change FY 2014 Change All Japan Equity $ $0.10 $4.33 ($4.23) -4.09% -2.78% 0.88% All Australian Equity $ ($0.57) $3.59 ($4.16) -4.25% -2.02% -7.98% All UK Equity $99.76 ($1.16) $0.46 ($1.62) -7.63% -3.30% -1.49% All Emerging Mkts Equity $ ($1.67) $13.27 ($14.94) 0.24% -2.22% 2.32% All ACWI ex-us Equity $ ($2.81) $9.91 ($12.72) 1.01% 4.08% 2.82% All Canadian Equity $ ($3.80) $2.31 ($6.11) -0.33% -1.83% -4.75% All Asia Pacific Equity $ ($4.11) $4.03 ($8.14) -8.01% -9.97% -6.47% All EAFE Equity $1, ($5.02) $22.94 ($27.96) -0.58% 1.23% 0.89% All Europe Equity $ ($7.77) $5.30 ($13.03) % 2.32% 2.90% All Global Equity $1, ($24.33) $37.55 ($61.89) -2.78% -1.60% 0.97% All US Equity $6, ($87.09) $ ($201.53) -5.30% -4.79% -3.95%
14 Opportunities for Offense and Defense Fixed Income Universe Q Inst. AUM (USD BN) 4Q'16 Inst. Flows (USD BN) 4Q'16 Gross Inflows 4Q'16 Gross Outflows FY 2016 Change FY 2015 Change FY 2014 Change All US Fixed Income $6, $32.61 $ ($131.71) 1.79% -1.09% -1.38% All UK Fixed Income $ $6.86 $12.81 ($5.95) 4.10% -9.07% 3.84% All Asia Pacific Fixed Income $80.68 $0.37 $1.83 ($1.46) 10.08% 9.56% -6.59% All Japan Fixed Income $56.27 ($0.09) $0.87 ($0.96) 5.49% % % All EAFE Fixed Income $24.97 ($1.20) $0.09 ($1.29) % % -6.93% All Australian Fixed Interest $67.27 ($2.13) $1.45 ($3.58) -7.02% -3.10% -1.12% All Global Fixed Income $1, ($3.85) $33.93 ($37.78) -2.72% 1.02% 5.77% All Canadian Fixed Income $ ($4.45) $4.13 ($8.58) -2.24% 0.75% 3.46% All Europe Fixed Income $ ($5.60) $13.36 ($18.96) 5.32% 8.76% 4.64% All Emerg Mkts Fixed Income $ ($13.71) $12.31 ($26.01) -3.28% -7.12% -1.40%
15 Returns Counterbalance Institutional Outflows
16 State of Long-only Asset Management
17 Institutional Flow Equilibrium 100% 90% 80% % with outflows 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% % with inflows 10% 0% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 2015
18 Trends in Investor Behavior
19 60% Portfolio Distribution 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Traditional EQ Traditional FI Other (incl. Alternatives)
20 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q Q Q EQ Portfolio Distribution & Cumulative Flows Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q $1,000,000 $500,000 $- $(500,000) All Active Equity All Passive Equity Active EQ Flows Passive EQ Flows $(1,000,000) $(1,500,000) $(2,000,000) $(2,500,000)
21 Resiliency of EM Equity
22 Source: NEPC, Public Plan IQ22
23 $500,000 Emerging Markets Equity Flows $0 -$500,000 -$1,000,000 -$1,500,000 -$2,000,000 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q All Equity All Emerging Mkts Equity
24 EM Equity Returns & Flows Q Q Q Q Q Q Q $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $- $(50,000) evestment All US Equity evestment All Asia Pacific Equity evestment All ACWI ex-us Equity evestment All Europe Equity evestment All EAFE Equity Active EM Equity Flows
25 Flow Volatility = Opportunity
26 Case of US Core Plus Fixed
27 100% Case of US Core Plus Fixed 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q % with Inflows % with Outflows
28 CHRIS RILEY
29 Gaining an Understanding of Your Competitive Landscape Plan Case Study Creating Distribution Alpha Viewing Yourself Through the Lens of an Investor Identifying Relevant Opportunities Perception Prospect Preparing for Success Position Taking Action on Your Opportunities Pursue
30 CAN P: 4.2% U:9% US P: 46.2% U:67.4% LAT AM P:0.0% U:0.0% Where to Invest Time and Effort Universe Interest UK P: 7.7% U:9.3% Europe P: 2.9% U: 6.4% Africa U:1.3% Asia P: 21.6% U:3.5% Australia U:2.3% Japan P:12.2% U:0.8%
31 33% of the Interest in this Universe is Outside of US
32 Understanding Perception Consultant/Investor Views 3-year Quartile Top Perceived Peer Passed/Failed Screens Adds to Universes 52 2 Dimensional Fund Advisors 104/97 46 Product Total Views Dimensional Fund Advisors EM All Cap Core Strategy 814 Acadian Asset Management EM Equity 980 LSV Asset Management EM Value Equity 509 Fisher Investments EM Equity 625 Harding Loevner LP EM 1220 Clarivest EM 349 Axiom EM Equity Strategy 623
33 Consultant s Favorable Investment Manager Evaluation Qualities and Characteristics for the EM Equity Universe Organizational and Professional Performance and Investment Vehicle Investment Process Organizational and Professional Performance and Investment Vehicle Investment Process Low turnover among staff, particularly key Verifiable track record, with reasonable level of Very few changes to investment team, style and investment Low turnover professionals among staff, particularly key assets Verifiable in the track fund record, with reasonable Very process few changes to investment team, style investment professionals level of assets in the fund and process Limited number of professionals involved in final Superior performance over meaningful amount Limited clients lost Limited investment number decisions of professionals (with few committees involved in of Superior time performance over meaningful final between investment idea generation decisions and (with implementation few Limited clients lost amount of time committees between idea generation and Performance consistent with stated investment Portfolio managers have flexibility indecisionmaking process Logical business plan style and market capitalization implementation Performance consistent with stated Investment management activities are profitable Past investment decisions adhere to stated Reasonable risk profile and risk-adjusted returns Portfolio managers have flexibility in and account Logical for business a large plan portion of firm revenue investment style and market decision-making investment process process capitalization Reasonable level of assets under management along Investment management activities are Competitive fees, with value-added on a net of Ideas are successfully implemented (i.e., no with reasonable growth in assets under fees Reasonable basis risk profile and risk-adjusted Past disconnect investment between decisions process adhere and performance to stated management profitable and account for a large portion of returns investment process firm revenue No use (or very limited use) of complex Reasonable level of assets under Performance pattern complements current Ideas are successfully implemented (i.e., no Experienced, knowledgeable staff investment instruments such as futures, managers Competitive (e.g. no fees, style with "drift") value-added on a management along with reasonable growth disconnect derivatives, between swaps, etc. process and net of fees basis in assets under management performance) Competitive compensation and incentive policies If applicable, clear quantitative modeling (e.g., employee ownership) No approach use (or very (i.e., limited no black use) box") of complex Performance pattern compliments current Experienced, knowledgeable staff investment instruments such as futures, Peer or horizontal relationships among key managers (e.g. no style "drift") If applicable, fundamental analysis is logical and professionals derivatives, thorough swaps, etc. Competitive compensation and incentive If applicable, clear quantitative modeling policies (e.g., employee ownership) approach (i.e., no black box") Peer or horizontal relationships among key If applicable, fundamental analysis is logical professionals and thorough 33
34 Understanding what Investors Want to See 17.7% Current # of Holdings Screen Term Actual Value Active Share Screen Term Actual value % Missing Data Criteria Not Met Screen Term EM Equity Value Market Cap Actual value EM Equity Core
35 Characteristics of a winner EM All Cap Core Equity Product Performance Asset Flows Marketability Universe Health Distr. Impact Winner Your Product Source: ev Scorecard Metric Score Value Investor Sentiment 5 81 Fee Level ($50 Mil) 3 90 BPS Number of Holdings 2 142
36 Characteristics of a winner - Fees Metric Score Value Investor Sentiment 5 81 Fee Level ($50 Mil) 3 90 BPS Number of Holdings Universe Quintile Ranking 17.5 BPS 76.5 BPS Perceived Peer Comparison EM All Cap Core EM All Cap Value EM All Cap Value EM Large Cap Core EM All Cap Growth Value 55 BPS 100 BPS 100 BPS 97.5 BPS 97 BPS 87.5 BPS 95 BPS 108 BPS 125 BPS
37 Characteristics of a winner Portfolio Concentration Metric Score Value Investor Sentiment 5 81 Fee Level ($50 Mil) 3 90 BPS Number of Holdings Perceived Peer Comparison Value EM All Cap Core 4489 EM All Cap Value 397 EM All Cap Value 180 EM Large Cap Core 72 EM All Cap Growth 78 Universe Quintile Ranking
38 Gaining an Understanding of Your Competitive Landscape Plan Case Study Creating Distribution Alpha Viewing Yourself Through the Lens of an Investor Identifying Relevant Opportunities Perception Prospect Preparing for Success Position Taking Action on Your Opportunities Pursue
39 Target 4/20/
40 Staying Current People Changes Large AUM Changes Consultant Views Constituent Changes Products in Bottom Quartile Product Consultant Views Change GMO Emerging Domestic Opportunities Strategy Invesco Developing Markets Westwood Global EM Markets Macquarie Investment Management EM Equity Stewart Investors Global EM Leaders Strategy Wells Capital SF Global EM Markets Leaders 33 19
41 Prospecting Opportunities- Bottom Performers Product Returns (Trailing 3 Year) Rank Total AUM* Views Emerging Markets $113 3 Parity EM Fund $54 0 Global EM Equity $74 15 EM Equity $1,481 6 EM Equity Strategy $4, *AUM in millions
42 Prospecting Opportunities- Outflows Product Flows by Inst. AUM* Rank Total AUM* Views Global EM Equity -2, $26, Global EM Focused -2, $5, Fundamental EM Equity -1, $1,202 3 Global EM Opportunities -1, $3, EM Growth fund $1, *Flows and AUM in millions
43 Prospecting Opportunities Risk Based Opportunities Product Tracking Error (Trailing 3 Year) Rank Total AUM* Views Global EM Markets Equity $ EM Equity $ Global EM Strategy $1, Global EM Equity Strategy $4, EM Fund $8 7 *AUM in millions
44 Prospecting Opportunities Least Correlated Product Correlation: Excess Return (Trailing 3 Year) Rank Total AUM* Views Emerging Markets $113 3 EM Equity $3, EM Equity $ EM Ext. Opportunity $776 3 EM Equity Strategy $3, *AUM in millions
45 Gaining an Understanding of Your Competitive Landscape Plan Case Study Creating Distribution Alpha Viewing Yourself Through the Lens of an Investor Identifying Relevant Opportunities Perception Prospect Preparing for Success Position Taking Action on Your Opportunities Pursue
46 # of Securities Fees Source: Summit, City of Austin, Public Plan IQ 46
47 Intrinsic Differentiators
48 Sample EM Equity Portfolio EM All Cap Core Universe LARGE CAP VALUE LARGE CAP CORE LARGE CAP GROWTH
49 Style allocations
50 Concentration 10 largest holdings Eight of the top ten largest holdings Were positive contributors to return vs peers Top 10 holdings are 25% of the portfolio vs. 19% for the peer group
51 Technology Consumer Staples Consumer Discretionary Energy Utilities Health Care Producer Durables Materials & Processing Financial Services Explaining Investment Philosophy and Emphasizing Differentiation -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% Sample EM Equity Strategy EM Equity Universe
52 Gaining an Understanding of Your Competitive Landscape Plan Case Study Creating Distribution Alpha Viewing Yourself Through the Lens of an Investor Identifying Relevant Opportunities Perception Prospect Preparing for Success Position Taking Action on Your Opportunities Pursue
53 Competitive Insights Top Emerging Markets Equity competitors (Over 3yrs) Aggregated competitive intelligence Gain access to presentation materials, consultant evaluations and negotiated fees. Source: ev Public Plan IQ
54 Consultant s Summary of Investment Manager Evaluation Process for the EM Equity Universe Organizational and Professional Performance and Investment Vehicle Investment Process Low turnover among Firm / staff, Product particularly key Verifiable Reason track record, for Exclusion with reasonable level of Very few changes to investment team, style and investment professionals Emerging Markets Equity assets in the Relatively fund high product assets process Emerging Markets Equity Consultant / staff prefer other candidates Limited number of professionals involved in final Superior performance over meaningful amount Limited clients lost Emerging Markets Leading Companies Prefer manager's other EM strategy investment decisions (with few committees Global Emerging Markets Equity of time Relatively high investment management between fees idea generation and implementation Emerging Domestic Opportunities Strategy Performance Relatively consistent high with investment stated investment management Portfolio fees managers have flexibility indecisionmaking trailing process five-, seven-, and ten- Logical business plan style and Strategy market capitalization underperformed benchmark over Investment management EM Strategy activities are profitable years Past investment decisions adhere to stated Reasonable Relatively risk profile weak and performance risk-adjusted versus returnsbenchmark over trailing five- and and account for a large portion of firm revenue investment process Emerging Markets Equity seven years Reasonable level of assets under management along Emerging Markets Value Equity Competitive High fees, investment with value-added management on a net fees of Ideas are successfully implemented (i.e., no with reasonable growth in assets under fees basis disconnect between process and performance management Emerging Markets Equity Only $384 MM of product assets in commingled fund Emerging Markets Equity High investment management fees No use (or very limited use) of complex Performance Strategy pattern underperformed complements current versus benchmark and peers over one- and Experienced, knowledgeable staff investment instruments such as futures, Emerging Markets Equity Strategy managers three- (e.g. no years style "drift") derivatives, swaps, etc. Global Emerging Market Equity Firm did not submit to the invitation only SFP Competitive compensation and incentive policies If applicable, clear quantitative modeling (e.g., employee ownership) approach (i.e., no black box") Emerging Markets Core Equity Weak performance versus benchmark over trailing one- and three years Peer or horizontal relationships among key If applicable, fundamental analysis is logical and Emerging Markets Growth Firm did not submit to the invitation only SFP professionals thorough Equities Emerging Markets Consultant / staff preference for other candidates Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Departure of lead portfolio manager for EM equity strategy Emerging Markets Relatively high investment management fees Emerging Markets Plus Firm did not submit to the invitation only SFP 54
55 Head-to-head comparisons EM Strategy A vs EM Strategy B Excess Returns 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
56 Head-to-head comparisons EM Strategy A vs EM Strategy B Fees 10mm 25mm 50mm 75mm 100mm
57 Head-to-head comparisons EM Strategy A vs EM Strategy B People Total Number Avg. Experience Avg. Years at Firm Number Lost
58 Always Be Prepared Sample EM Strategy Competitor 1 Competitor 2 People THIRD SECOND FIRST Portfolio Mgrs/Dual Role PM s Research Analysts CFA Charterholders Avg Years Exp: PM s Avg Yrs Exp: Analysts Avg Yrs w Firm: PM s Portfolio Mgrs Lost
59 Always Be Prepared Sample EM Strategy Competitor 1 Competitor 2 Risk FIRST THIRD SECOND Standard Deviation 3 YRS Beta 3 YRS Annualized Alpha 3 YRS Information Ratio 3 YRS Sharpe Ratio 3 YRS Upside Market Capture 3 YRS Downside Market Capture 3 YRS
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