Beyond Traditional Infrastructure Investing: Listed Infrastructure Equities as an Income Solution
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- Darrell Greene
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1 October 2018 Beyond Traditional Infrastructure Investing: Listed Infrastructure Equities as an Income Solution James A. Lydotes, CFA, Brock A. Campbell, CFA & William J. Adams Standish, Mellon Capital and The Boston Company are brands of BNY Mellon Asset Management North America Corporation.
2 2 Shifting demographic trends are creating an insatiable thirst for income, yet bond yields are bouncing along generational lows. Where can investors turn to fill this income gap? Infrastructure assets provide investors with high-quality, defensible income with cash flow supported by long-term contracts or government backstops. Infrastructure-focused equities can provide similar characteristics to fixed income with a much better yield and attractive participation in secular and cyclical tailwinds. We believe our Global Infrastructure Dividend Focus Equity strategies provide a differentiated approach to investing in the asset class, and in turn, produce differentiated results. Our holistic view of infrastructure investing is distinct from our more traditional peers; however, we are able to maintain a similar type of exposure to this asset class as our peers. Integral to our portfolio construction is an adherence to a proprietary risk mitigation process that seeks to eliminate macro factor exposure and elevate stock-specific risk. The process also maintains a focus on valuation and sustainable cash flow, which naturally creates a better income stream. A Holistic Approach to Infrastructure Investing Adopting a broader view of infrastructure is the cornerstone of our investment philosophy and helps our strategies deliver a high-quality income stream through all market cycles. We find the historic focus of publically listed infrastructure investing namely traditional sectors such as Utilities, Energy and Industrials only paints part of the investment opportunity picture. A broader infrastructure universe, which includes nontraditional social sectors such as aged care, hospitals and telecommunication assets, creates a more complete opportunity set. While we tap into a much wider set of infrastructure opportunities, the portfolio nevertheless consistently delivers all the characteristics investors seek in the asset class, notably: Asset Ownership: Companies who act as rent collectors on the underlying assets Regulatory Predictability: A business structure backed by clear regulations and operating guidelines Stable Cash Flows: Asset ownership combined with regulated structure create long-term sustainable cash flows *S&P Global Infrastructure Index.
3 3 Our holistic infrastructure view translates into a proprietary opportunity set of nearly 500 stocks over six times the size our peers. A broader universe is a notable competitive advantage because it results in greater diversification, facilitates better price discipline, and enables us to pursue value opportunities globally. Our search for yield transcends sectors and countries alike. Our peers maintain a high concentration in a few similar holdings, which is not surprising given the narrow focus of their investment universes. Equity inflows into a narrow opportunity set drives prices up, and it forces buyers like our competitors to be price takers. The chart at left clearly illustrates this dilemma. As assets flowed into the publically listed infrastructure space over the past five years, the average valuation of our common peers strategies increased nearly 25%. Conversely, we maintained a steady valuation profile, as measured by our price-to-cash flow ratio, due to our broader universe and focus on valuation discipline as shown in the right chart. Valuation Discipline Drives Absolute Return Focused Approach Infrastructure Peers 1 Global Infrastructure Dividend Focus Equity $50, $1, $45,000 $40, $1, AUM (millions) $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15, Price/Cash Flow AUM (Millions) $800 $600 $ Price/Cash Flow $10,000 $5, $ $- 7.0 $0 5.5 Industry AUM Peer LTM Average P/CF Linear (Peer LTM Average P/CF) Strategy Assets* 3 LTM Average P/CF Linear (LTM Average P/CF) 2 3 As of 12/29/17. 1 Source: evestment. The peer group is made up of the Global Infrastructure Divided Focus Equity Strategy s five most common peers in the marketplace. evestment statistics are subject to change based on the number of universe constituents reporting. 2 Includes assets from the Unhedged and Hedged strategies. The Hedged strategy has the same diversified equity investment strategy as the Unhedged strategy but includes the use of currency forward contracts to hedge the currency to USD. Where applicable, includes assets managed by investment personnel of the Firm acting in their capacity as officers of affiliated entities. 3 Based on Global Infrastructure Dividend Focus Equity representative institutional account. Please refer to the back for other important disclosures. Social Infrastructure: The Hidden Opportunity Changing demographics also impact social infrastructure needs. As baby boomers continue to retire, there will be increased demand for retirement homes and health care. Likewise, rapid technological change and an increasingly connected world will necessitate better and alternative types of communications infrastructure. Ongoing privatization of government-owned assets such as hospitals should lead to an expanded opportunity set of investable social infrastructure.
4 4 Top Down and Bottom Up: A Process Centered on Risk Management Our process begins with a fundamentally driven review of the entire large cap, global investable universe of approximately 2,500 stocks, which is narrowed down to roughly 500 stocks that exhibit the three defining characteristics of infrastructure: stable underlying cash flows, regulatory predictability and asset-owning business models. Next, we apply a proprietary multi-factor quantitative model, which further narrows the investment universe to approximately 100 stocks that both fit our definition of infrastructure and possess the quantitative characteristics that make them attractive investments. This list of 100 quantitatively attractive securities is then filtered through our integrated risk investment screen. Risk management is an integral and, notably, up-front part of our investment process. We seek to minimize macro and factor risk and focus our research effort on the most risk-diversifying equities. We then analyze new investment ideas this is where we spend the majority of our effort. Once we have narrowed down the universe to a few high-conviction names, we leverage our seasoned global research team to provide their fundamental perspective. Analysis focuses on regulatory environment, quality of assets and cash flowfocused valuation, among others. This fundamental overlay finally results in a concentrated portfolio of 20 to 40 stocks. Importantly, our investment process aims to provide infrastructure exposure with a portfolio that mitigates macro factor exposures and maximizes stock-specific risks. We believe this approach delivers a compelling value proposition and, as a natural outcrop, a better, high-quality income stream. Risk controls are an integral part of achieving minimal macro exposure. We think our risk process is a key differentiator from our peers in the infrastructure universe. Risk Integrated Investment Process
5 5 Our Unique Approach Creates Several Advantages We have thoughtfully designed our philosophy and process to deliver what we believe are the best aspects of infrastructure investing in a way that balances valuations, income and risk. 1. A Different Approach with the Same Infrastructure Exposure Our holistic view of infrastructure investing materially differentiates us from our traditional peer set. As noted earlier, we find that a broader, more complete view of infrastructure allows us to construct portfolios in a diversified, value-aware manner. Despite our clearly differentiated philosophy and process, the strategies are able to provide comparable exposure to the attractive infrastructure asset class. Our Global Infrastructure Dividend Focus Equity strategy (hedged to the US dollar) has about a 90% correlation to the S&P Infrastructure Index Eliminate Macro Factor Exposure, Elevate Stock Specific Risk We also incorporate risk mitigation throughout our process and look to maintain a neutral stance relative to macro factors. We believe predicting macro factors is a far more volatile pursuit, and one that few, if any, managers can consistently do well. Instead, we prefer to focus on what we believe is our core strength stock selection. To illustrate with one key macro factor, our strategies performed favorably when interest rates both declined and rose. Cumulative Returns in Rising and Declining Interest-Rate Environments* Cumulative Return 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 46.7% 41.8% Declining Rates (36 Months) Global Infrastructure Dividend Focus 25.5% Rising Rates (44 Months) 14.6% S&P Global Infrastructure USD Hedged PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Performance presented for measurement periods prior to February 1, 2018 represents the portable performance results of a prior affiliated firm which have been linked to the on-going track record for this composite. 8/31/11 6/30/18. *Based on the monthly movements of the US 10 Year Treasury Yield. Periods of no movement not included. Global Infrastructure Dividend Focus is based on composite net of fee returns. Please refer to the back for other important disclosures. 3. Valuation-Sensitive Approach Naturally Results in Income The Global Infrastructure Dividend Focus Equity strategies provide a better income proposition, with a yield well in excess of traditional vehicles. We believe this is a natural byproduct of our relentless global search for attractively priced infrastructure assets. Despite a dividend yield well in excess of peers, we deliver a payout ratio that is consistently in line with a typical infrastructure asset payout ratio, as shown below. However, our broader universe allows us to cycle to the most attractive, fundamentally sound investments to support our yield proposition over time. This highlights the benefits of our unique ability to transcend sectors and countries alike in our relentless search for value.
6 6 Disciplined Investing Creates Sustainable Yield 100% Payout Ratio (Forward)* 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Sources of Yield Asian Transport Infrastructure European Utilities Non-US Developed Markets Telecoms North American Energy Infrastructure Time Periods 8/1/ /31/2012 1/1/ /31/2013 1/1/2014 6/30/2015 7/1/ /31/2017 As of 12/31/17. *Adjustments were made to certain companies where we believe GAAP earnings do not reflect a company s ability to fund the dividend. Cash flow metrics more relevant to each exception were substituted in place of earnings. The payout ratios are weighted averages of each calendar year end. Based on Global Infrastructure Dividend Focus Equity representative institutional account. Representative Institutional Account where applicable, excludes cash, ETFs, futures and currency hedges. There may be material differences between the representative account and other accounts managed with the same strategy. Because of these differences, the information based on the representative account should not necessarily be relied upon. Please refer to the back for other important disclosures. The fundamental goal of the Global Infrastructure Dividend Focus Equity strategies is to deliver a portfolio comprised of attractively valued infrastructure equities and neutral macro factor exposure. We do this by reviewing a broader opportunity set within the framework of the key characteristics of the asset class. In combination with our integrated, rigorous risk management process focused on stock-specific risk, it naturally results in a portfolio with a better income stream.
7 7 James A. Lydotes, CFA Managing Director, Senior Portfolio Manager Jim is the lead portfolio manager of the Global Infrastructure Dividend Focus Equity and Global Healthcare REIT strategies and a senior research analyst on the Global Equity team, primarily focused on the International Equity and International Small Cap Equity strategies. He is responsible for research coverage of the non-us Health Care, Utilities, Information Technology and Telecommunication Services sectors, in addition to assisting in the development and enhancement of the team s quantitative stock selection models. Before joining the firm, Jim served as a fixed income business analyst at Wellington Management Co. Jim received a BA in economics from Syracuse University, holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation and is a member of the CFA Institute and the CFA Society Boston. Brock A. Campbell, CFA Director, Portfolio Manager Brock is a portfolio manager on the Global Infrastructure Dividend Focus Equity strategy. He is also a senior research analyst on the Global Research team, covering utilities and industrials. Previously, he was a research associate, supporting senior analysts covering the energy, utilities and materials sectors. He has also served as a portfolio assistant, responsible for generating a diverse range of analytical data and creating performance attribution reporting materials. He holds a BA in political science and economics from Wheaton College and the Chartered Financial Analyst designation. William J. Adams Managing Director, Global Investment Strategist Bill is a global investment strategist for the firm s active equity Non-US and Emerging Markets investment disciplines, responsible for communicating the teams strategies to clients, prospective clients and consultants, serving as the critical interface between client-facing staff and investment teams. In this role, Bill guides the messaging and positioning of these investment strategies, helping to create marketing materials and content, responding to investmentrelated client inquiries and ensuring relevant investment insights of portfolio management teams are delivered internally and externally in a timely, effective way. Before joining the firm, Bill was an associate at Deutsche Bank, where he was responsible for European equity research sales. Previously, he was a senior account officer at Putnam Investments, where he managed 401(k) relationships, and a senior account administrator at State Street Research and Management Co. Bill earned a BA in political science from Boston College and an MBA in finance from the University of Maryland.
8 8 Endnotes 1. evestment, as of June 30, Accessed August Disclosure Global Infrastructure Dividend Focus Equity Performance as of June 30, 2018 (%) 1 Year 3 Year Annualized 5 Year Annualized Composite S&P Global Infrastructure Hedged USD PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Performance presented for measurement periods prior to February 1, 2018 represents the portable performance results of a prior affiliated firm which have been linked to the on-going track record for this composite. Returns are shown in U.S. dollars net of fees. Definition of the Firm: BNY Mellon Asset Management North America Corporation is a registered investment advisor and subsidiary of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation ( BNY Mellon ). The Firm also includes assets managed by BNY Mellon Asset Management North America personnel acting as dual officers of affiliated companies. Prior to February 1, 2018, the firm was defined as Mellon Capital Management Corporation ( Mellon Capital ) a subsidiary of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation ( BNY Mellon ). The Firm was redefined on February 1, 2018 following a merger with affiliated firms The Boston Company Asset Management, LLC ( TBCAM ) and Standish Mellon Asset Management Company LLC ( Standish ) which also were also registered investment advisors and subsidiaries of BNY Mellon. Composite Description: The strategy seeks long term capital appreciation through a diversified portfolio of listed equities, expected to be high yielding, issued by companies in infrastructure related sectors including telecom services, utilities, energy, industrials and materials. Target holdings are currently 20 to 40 securities. Currency risk is hedged with forward contracts. Derivatives are permitted. Benchmark: The S&P Global Infrastructure (USD) Hedged Index is designed to track 75 companies from around the world chosen to represent the listed infrastructure industry while maintaining liquidity and tradability. To create diversified exposure, the index includes three distinct infrastructure clusters: energy, transportation, and utilities. The MSCI ACWI High Dividend Yield Index is based on MSCI ACWI, its parent index, and includes large and mid cap stocks across 23 Developed Markets and 24 Emerging Markets countries. The index is designed to reflect the performance of equities in the parent index (excluding REITs) with higher dividend income and quality characteristics than average dividend yields that are both sustainable and persistent. Both indexes hedge the foreign currency exposure of investments to the U.S. dollar. Where applicable, the S&P Index is shown to demonstrate portfolio positioning relative to a global infrastructure-oriented benchmark and the MSCI Index is shown to demonstrate portfolio positioning relative to a global yield-oriented benchmark. Other Information: BNY Mellon Asset Management North America claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS ). To receive a list of composite descriptions of BNY Mellon Asset Management North America composites and / or a presentation that complies with the GIPS standards, contact marketing@tbcam.com. Any statements of opinion constitute only current opinions of the Firm, which are subject to change and which the Firm does not undertake to update. Due to, among other things, the volatile nature of the markets and the investment areas discussed herein, they may only be suitable for certain investors. This publication or any portion thereof may not be copied or distributed without prior written approval from the Firm. Statements are correct as of the date of the material only. This document may not be used for the purpose of an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction or in any circumstances in which such offer or solicitation is unlawful or not authorized. The information in this publication is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations for any purchase or sale of any specific security. Listed securities are being presented for illustrative purposes only. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold these securities. Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources that are believed to be reliable, but the information has not been independently verified by the Firm. The Firm makes no representations as to the accuracy or the completeness of such information. There may be material differences between the representative account and other accounts managed with the same strategy. Because of these differences, the information based on the representative account should not necessarily be relied upon. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment and past performance is no indication of future performance. CFA and Chartered Financial Analyst are registered trademarks owned by CFA Institute. Effective on January 31, 2018, The Boston Company Asset Management, LLC (TBCAM) and Standish Mellon Asset Management Company LLC (Standish) merged into Mellon Capital Management Corporation (Mellon Capital), which immediately changed its name to BNY Mellon Asset Management North America Corporation.
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