NGL EXPORTS AND GLOBAL PETROCHEMICAL FEEDSTOCK COMPETITION

Transcription

1 NGL EXPORTS AND GLOBAL PETROCHEMICAL FEEDSTOCK COMPETITION Kendall Puig Senior Analyst, NGLs and LPG Platts Analytics, Bentek products Copyright 216 by S&P Global. All rights reserved. BENPOSIUM 216

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3 Key Takeaways A large spread between gas and liquids prices in the US led to rapid NGL production growth over the past five years. Exports have served as a relief value for much of the resulting oversupply. Midstream and shipping companies pursued investment projects expecting continued production growth, leading to an infrastructure overbuild. US NGLs have found new markets overseas, largely from petrochemical producers looking to move lower on the cost curve, but this demand is not limitless. Going forward, the outlook for US NGL exports will vary by product, region, and even individual terminal. Gas indexed pricing could make Marcus Hook ethane exports more competitive than USGC Mont Belvieu indexed barrels. LPG exports will be flat to declining in the short term and there may be greater competition between terminals for export volumes. 3 BENPOSIUM 216

4 HOW DID WE GET HERE? EXPORTS DRIVEN BY SUPPLY PUSH BENPOSIUM 216

5 Large spread between gas and liquids incentivized NGL production growth 25 2 $/MMBtu Large Value Gap incentivizes: Increased drilling for liquids NGL demand/export projects Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 WTI Henry Hub Mont Belvieu NGLs Brent 5 5 BENPOSIUM 216 Source: Platts, Bentek

6 A tighter spread makes many US petrochemical and export projects less attractive $/MMBtu Smaller Value Gap leads to: Decreased drilling activity Less attractive economics for NGL demand and export projects 5 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 WTI Henry Hub Mont Belvieu NGLs Brent 6 6 BENPOSIUM 216 Source: Platts, Bentek

7 Growth of NGL production from gas plants expected to level off Liquids premium leads to 75% growth in 5 years US NGL Supply from Gas Plants Prior to ethane rejection but is expected to drop to 14% due to lower prices Mb/d Ethane Propane Normal Butane Isobutane Natural Gasoline 7 BENPOSIUM 216 Source: Bentek Market Call: North American NGLs 2Q216

8 Recent NGL oversupply balanced mainly by increased exports and ethane rejection MMb/d Domestic Demand vs. Oversupply 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % Ethane Rejection Domestic Demand Exports % Oversupply (Exports + Rejection) 8 BENPOSIUM 216 Source: Bentek Market Call: North American NGLs 2Q216

9 ALLEVIATING CONSTRAINTS BENPOSIUM 216

10 Rejection balanced the ethane market, pushed prices to the gas floor Mb/d Ethane Gas Production From Gas Plants (prior to rejection) vs. Petchem Demand 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, $/MMbtu Ethane Prices vs. Natural Gas 1 BENPOSIUM 216 Gas Plants Petchem Henry Hub Natural Gas Mont Belvieu 1 Ethane

11 Canadian petchem producers are able to take advantage of low-cost US ethane by pipeline US Ethane/Ethylene Exports 1 8 Mb/d Benposium Source: Bentek, EIA 11 BENPOSIUM 216

12 Waterborne ethane exports require new terminal infrastructure Owner Project Name Location Ethane Capacity (Mb/d) In-Service Date Region Sunoco Logistics Marcus Hook Delaware, PA ~4 March 216 Northeast Enterprise Morgan s Point Houston Ship Channel, TX 2 3Q216 US Gulf Coast Sunoco Marcus Hook Enterprise Morgan s Point Source: Platts cflow 12 Source: Platts cflow 12 BENPOSIUM 216

13 Shipping capacity buildout will support waterborne export volumes Ship owner Name/End User Number of ships Unit capacity (cubic meters) Est. Unit Capacity (Mb) In-Service Date Delivered Evergas JS INEOS Insight 27, Evergas JS INEOS Intrepid 27, Evergas JS INEOS Ingenuity 27, Evergas JS INEOS Inspiration 27, Orderbook Evergas INEOS 4 27, Evergas INEOS 4 (2) 32, Reliance/ Mitsui Reliance 6 87, Navigator Gas Borealis 1 35, Navigator Gas TBD 3 35, Ocean Yield SABIC 3 36, Hartmann Schiffahrts Oriental Energy 5 85, BENPOSIUM 216 Source: Bentek, Wartsila, Reliance

14 Propane and butane oversupply pushed US from net importer to a net exporter 4 US LPG Net Imports Mb/d Total Propane Imports Total Isobutane Imports Total Normal Butane Exports Net Imports Total Normal Butane Imports Total Propane Exports Total Isobutane Exports BENPOSIUM 216 Source: EIA, Bentek

15 Global LPG price spreads have also narrowed as US supply floods market 3 25 Global Propane Prices Large spread between US and Asia/Europe demand markets incentivizes terminal buildout Cents/gal Lower arbitrage opportunity with tight spread Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Mt. Belvieu Northwest Europe Japan FOB Saudi Arabia CP 15 BENPOSIUM Source: Platts, Bentek

16 US LPG export volumes no longer constrained by terminal capacity Current Waterborne Export Capacity 3% 6% 91% East Coast USGC West Coast 218 Waterborne Export Capacity 5% 22% 73% East Coast USGC West Coast Company Project Name State Capacity (Mb/d) ISD Existing LPG Export Terminals 145 Enterprise Enterprise TX 13 NA Enterprise Enterprise Expansion I TX Enterprise Enterprise Expansion II TX Enterprise Enterprise Expansion III TX Targa Galena Park TX 5 NA Targa Galena Park Expansion I TX Targa Galena Park Expansion II TX Sunoco Logistics Marcus Hook PA 17 NA Sunoco Logistics Marcus Hook Expansion I PA DCP Midstream Chesapeake VA Petrogas Ferndale WA 3 NA Sunoco Logistics Mariner South TX Brownfield Expansions 275 Sunoco Logistics Marcus Hook Expansion II PA Greenfield New Builds 287 AltaGas Prince Rupert BC Occidental Chemical Ingleside TX 1 TBD Phillips 66 Freeport LPG TX Cancelled 112 Waterside Energy WA Storage & Transfer WA 75 TBD Pembina West Coast Terminal OR 37 TBD 16 BENPOSIUM 216 Source: Bentek Market Call: North American NGLs 2Q216, NGL Facilities Databank

17 VLGC spot rates on the decline as more ships enter the market Cents/gal VLGC Spot Freight Rates VLGC capacity was not enough to facilitate increased flows from the US to Asia, leading to high freight rates. The current fleet of VLGCs is about 221 vessels with 53 ships on order. New ship deliveries have driven down rates. The Panama Canal expansion could lead to further decreases. 17 BENPOSIUM 216 VLGC Freight Houston-Northwest Europe VLGC Freight Houston-Japan VLGC Freight Persian Gulf-Japan 17 Source: Platts, BW LPG

18 Propane and butane exports reached a record 962 Mb/d in January 216 per EIA data 1,2 1, Propane and Butane Exports Record high: 962 Mb/d Mb/d Avg: 497 Mb/d Avg: 197 Mb/d 2 - Propane Exports Normal Butane Exports Isobutane Exports 18 BENPOSIUM Source: EIA, Bentek

19 FINDING OVERSEAS DEMAND BENPOSIUM 216

20 Ethylene production cost curve highlights US advantage from shale gas ethane $/MT Global Ethylene Cost Curve CTO/MTO SE Asia Naphtha NE Asia Naphtha WE Naphtha Iran Ethane ME Ethane Saudi Ethane US Ethane US E/P Mix 2, 4, 6, 8, 1, 12, 14, 2 BENPOSIUM 216 Cumulative Capacity (' MT) Source: Platts Analytics

21 US cracker feedslate lighter; Europe, Asia remain naphtha dominated 1% US Steam Cracker Feedslate 5% % 1% Ethane Propane Butane Naphtha European Steam Cracker Feedslate 5% % 21 BENPOSIUM Ethane Propane Butane Naphtha Gasoil Source: Jacobs Consultancy s Hodson Report

22 European steam crackers were the first to receive US waterborne ethane shipments Company Location Country Ethylene Capacity (MMlbs/yr) Max Ethane Demand (Mb/d)* INEOS Rafnes Norway 1, INEOS Grangemouth UK 1,61 42 ExxonMobil Mossmorran UK 1,83 48 Borealis Stenungsund Sweden 1, SABIC Wilton UK 1,9 5 *Assumes a 95% utilization rate and 1% ethane feedslate Source: Bentek Market Call: North American NGLs, 2Q BENPOSIUM

23 Reliance and Braskem have also announced contracts to import US ethane Braskem purchased ethane from Enterprise for Camcari cracker Reliance contracted 72.5 Mb/d from Enterprise for 3 crackers Ethane Propane Naphtha Ethanol 23 BENPOSIUM 216 Benposium

24 Asia is now largest destination for US LPG exports Mb/d 1, % Export % to Region 216 YTD % 16% 14% 11% 7% US LPG Exports to Region 5% North America South America Central America Caribbean Europe Asia Africa BENPOSIUM 216 Source: EIA data through March 216, Bentek. Note: North America includes Canada and Mexico

25 US LPG Exports to Asia and Europe Growing Mb/d Latin America /1/216 YTD Venezuela Panama Honduras Dominican Republic Chile Brazil Mexico Mb/d Western Europe Mb/d Asia Netherlands France UK Portugal Spain 25 BENPOSIUM 216 China Japan South Korea Singapore 25 Source: EIA data through March 216, Bentek.

26 China is now the largest destination for US LPG, mainly due to new PDH units Chinese PDH units Plant Propylene Output (mt/yr) Est. Propane Demand (Mb/d) ISD Tianjin Bohai Chemical 6, 23.2 Oct 213 Zhejiang Ningbo Haiyue 6, 23.2 July 214 Zhejiang Satellite Petchem 45, 17.5 Aug 214 Shaoxing Sanyuan Petchem 45, 17.5 Sept 214 Ningbo Oriental Energy I 66, 29.1 May 215 Yantai Wanhua 75, 25.6 Aug 215 Zhongjing Petrochemical 8, Ningbo Oriental Energy II 66, Hebei Haiwei Group 5, Fujian Meide Petrochemical 66, TOTAL 6,13, The US exported 111 Mb/d of LPG to China in 215. This has increased to 168 Mb/d in 216 YTD. 26 BENPOSIUM 216 Source: Bentek

27 Development of additional Chinese PDH challenged by lower margins $/MT China Propane - Propylene Margin Low margins decrease utilization of existing units Propane - Propylene Margin Propane China Propylene China 27 BENPOSIUM 216 Source: Platts, Bentek

28 Asian and European crackers take more LPG when it is at a discount to naphtha Northwest Europe C3 to Naphtha Spread Japan C3 vs Naphtha $/mt $/mt $/mt $/mt Difference Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Source: Bentek Difference Platts Propane CIF NWE 7kt+ Platts Propane Refrigerated CFR Japan 3-45 days Platts Naphtha CIF NWE Cargo Platts Naphtha MOPJ strip Days 28 BENPOSIUM 216 Source: Platts, Bentek 28

29 WHAT HAPPENS NEXT? BENPOSIUM 216

30 Ethane exports will continue to move, but not all terminals are created equal Mb/d US Ethane Exports Pipeline to Canada Enterprise Marcus Hook Enterprise Morgan s Point Mont Belvieu index ethane contracts $/MMBtu Sunoco Marcus Hook Natural gas or naphthaindex ethane contracts Ethane vs Gas Price Forecast Henry Hub Mont Belvieu Ethane Source: Bentek Market Call: North American NGLs, 2Q216 3 BENPOSIUM 216

31 Global LPG price spreads have also narrowed as US supply floods market 3 Global Propane Prices Cents/gal Lower arbitrage opportunity with tight spread Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Mt. Belvieu Northwest Europe Japan FOB Saudi Arabia CP 31 BENPOSIUM Source: Platts, Bentek

32 Record LPG exports are not sustainable as stocks are lower and global price spreads have narrowed US LPG Exports US Propane/Propylene Stocks Stocks drawn 4% MB prices rose 22% Mb/d 6 4 MMbbl Capacity Bentek's Waterborne LPG Model EIA 5-year range year average 32 BENPOSIUM 216 Source: Platts, Bentek 32 Source: EIA weekly estimates

33 Relative value of terminal capacity has fallen Cents/gal Export Value = Destination Price - Freight - Mont Belvieu USGC Propane Export Value Constrained terminal capacity -4 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Houston - NW Europe High freight Houston - NE Asia Fewer constraints, lower spreads 33 BENPOSIUM 216 Source: Platts, Bentek

34 High terminal and cancellation fees distorting export economics in the short term cents/gal Propane Firm Contract Economics Assumes 13 cents/gal terminal fee and 7 cents/gal cancellation fee Contract renegotiations? Difference Arab Gulf + Freight + US Cancellation Mont Belvieu + Fee + Frieght 34 BENPOSIUM 216 Source: Platts, Bentek

35 LPG terminal utilization rates to decline from previous highs LPG Exports vs Terminal Capacity Mb/d 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, LPG Exports Forecast - 2Q215 LPG Export Forecast - 2Q216 Total US LPG Export Capacity 35 BENPOSIUM 216 Source: Bentek Market Call: North American NGLs, NGL Facilities Databank

36 USGC will face increased competition from Northeast when Mariner East 2 comes online West Coast Northeast 1, LPG Exports by Region 8 Mb/d PADD 3 PADD 1 PADD 5 36 BENPOSIUM 216 Gulf Coast 36 Source: Bentek Market Call: North American NGLs 2Q216

37 A lower supply curve and domestic feedstock competition has changed the exports story Mb/d 37 BENPOSIUM 216 Total US NGL Exports Forecast Comparison 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Q215 2Q Source: Bentek Market Call: North American NGLs

38 Key Takeaways A large spread between gas and liquids prices in the US led to rapid NGL production growth over the past five years. Exports have served as a relief value for much of the resulting oversupply. Midstream and shipping companies pursued investment projects expecting continued production growth, leading to an infrastructure overbuild. US NGLs have found new markets overseas, largely from petrochemical producers looking to move lower on the cost curve, but this demand is not limitless. Going forward, the outlook for US NGL exports will vary by product, region, and even individual terminal. Gas indexed pricing could make Marcus Hook ethane exports more competitive than USGC Mont Belvieu indexed barrels. LPG exports will be flat to declining in the short term and there may be greater competition between terminals for export volumes. 38 BENPOSIUM 216

39 THANK YOU! Kendall Puig Senior Analyst, NGLs and LPG T: BENPOSIUM 216