Economic Forecast Almanac

Transcription

1 Economic Forecast Almanac MAY 2018

2 XAO Forecasting Record All forecasted dates are included in this chart A FORECAST IS NOT A SUBSTITUTE FOR A PERSONAL TRADING PLAN! P a g e 2

3 Major Index Forecasts All Ordinaries Index 22 Oct 8 Aug 20 Jun 19 Sep 4 Jun 13 Jul 28 Jul Dow Jones Index 15 Oct 20 Jun 8 Aug 13 Jul 4 Jun 19 Sep 4 Jul 27 Jul YOU HAVE OUR HIGH PROBABILITY REVERSAL DATES USE THEM P a g e 3

4 S&P 500 Index 8 Aug 20 Sep 5 Jun FTSE Index 19 Sep 15 Oct 9 Aug 20 Jun 13 Jul 5 Jun 27 Aug 5 Jul 30 Jul YOU MUST TRADE WHAT YOU SEE AND NOT WHAT YOU VE PREDICTED! P a g e 4

5 NASDAQ 100 Index 15 Oct 13 Jul 5 Jun 27 Jul Gold Gold is range bound. If it closes above 1307 there is a high probability it will rise to A higher bottom above 1367 could be a good entry. P a g e 5

6 Australian Interest Rates This chart is the inverse of the 10year Bond Chart on the SFE. Interest rates look to have bottomed at 1.8%. If the bonds close below there is a high probability Interest Rates will rise. January 2019 is 360 Months from the top in 1988 and is an important time to watch. AUDUSD Wait for break of congestion. P a g e 6

7 Crude Oil Oil has bottomed as we suggested in Nov If Oil closes above next resistance is , next level would be Forecast Dates DOW FTSE NASDAQ S&P500 XAO 4-Jun-18 5-Jun-18 5-Jun-18 5-Jun-18 4-Jun Jun Jun Jul-18 8-Aug Jun-18 4-Jul-18 5-Jul Jul Sep Jul Jul Jul Oct Jul Jul Jul-18 8-Aug-18 8-Aug-18 9-Aug Sep Sep Aug Oct Oct Sep Oct-18 TRADE THE MARKET - NOT THE FORECAST P a g e 7

8 Australian Stock Market ASX Sectors XDJ Consumer Discretionary In uptrend, buy the dips. XEJ Energy Bottom in place after 91 month downtrend from 3/6/08 to 20/1/16. Look for outperforming stocks in the sector. XFJ Financials In uptrend, buy the dips. Look for outperforming stocks in the sector. XHJ Health Care Buy the dips. Watch for resistance at level. XIJ Info Tech Buy the dips. Look for outperforming stocks in the sector. Watch for resistance at XMJ Materials Triple bottom 16/5/05 21/11/08 (1288d) 14/12/15 is (2628d). Start of long term uptrend. Buy the dips. Look for outperforming stocks in the sector. XNJ Industrials In uptrend. Buy the dips. XSJ Consumer Staples Uptrend. Support at Resistance at XTJ Telecommunications Look elsewhere until new uptrend in place. A higher bottom above 1026 could be a good entry at long term bottom. XUJ Utilities Wait until uptrend resumes. XEC Emerging Companies In uptrend, buy the dips. Look for outperforming stocks in the sector. XGD Gold Wait for uptrend to confirm and break of recent congestion. XJR Resources New uptrend confirmed after 249 weeks down. Buy the dips. Look for outperforming stocks in the sector. Beware of time and price resistance in early June XPJ Property Trusts Look for buying opportunities above XXJ Financial X Property Look for buying opportunities above XTL Top 20 Uptrend. Buy the dips. Summary The suggested strategy is to buy the strongest stocks in the Green (strongest) sectors. Regularly reviewing the sectors watching levels as suggested will result in very positive investing. This is a good time to be in the market and use the dips as opportunities to increase exposure. ASX Shares to Trade IAG MQG RIO P a g e 8

9 References XAO Decade Cycle All Time New Highs The ASX has taken more time than ever before to reach its previous all-time high in a new cycle. Previous All Time High 2007 Cycle Bottom 2009 New All Time High? P a g e 9

10 All Ordinaries Composite Trend and Vagg Levels 100, ,000 All Ordinaries Price Index Composite Trend with Normal and High Volatility Channels , , , , Numbersmith Research ,000 10,000 Average Trend Growth 1,000 All Ords Price Index: 5.7% pa Productivity Contribution: 1.8% pa Inflation Contribution: 3.9% pa All Ords Price Index 1,000 Inflation Contribution Productivity Contribution Numbersmith Research P a g e 10

11 10000% 9000% 8000% 7000% Comparison of Re-Balance Options: Jan Jan 2018 Default: NASDAQ:AusShares:AusProperty:Cash 15:60:15:10 Option [A]: Portfolio not re-balanced Option [B]: Re-balanced to default each half-year Option [C]: Re-balanced using trend-based weightings each half-year 6000% 5000% 4000% 3000% Initial Investment: $100K Option [A]: $700K Option [B]: $789K Option [C]: $5.92M 14.7% pa 2000% 1000% 7.3% pa 6.6% pa 0% Relative Strength of Major World Markets Global Stock Price Indices Scaled to 1875 = 5.0 Aus US Ger UK Fra Numbersmith Research % 300% Recoveries from GFC Lows S&P500 DAX 350% 300% 250% 250% 200% N % 150% FTSE100 CAC40 150% 100% AOrd 100% 50% 50% 0% Bottom % P a g e 11

12 Dow Jones - Projecting Forward Presidential Cycle ,000 10,000 Dow Jones Industrials Index with Composite Trend and Trend Reversal Levels ,000 10, , , Numbersmith Research THE COMPOSITE LINE PROVIDES A REFERENCE POINT FOR THE MODEL BASED ON 140+ YEARS OF HISTORY P a g e 12

13 Other Dates to Watch Solstice Jun Equinox Sep Solstice Dec Equinox Mar Solstice Jun Solar Eclipse 13 Jul 2018 Lunar Eclipse 28 Jul 2018 Solar Eclipse 11 Aug 2018 Solar Eclipse 6 Jan 2019 Lunar Eclipse 21 Jan FOMC Meetings January March 20-21* May 1-2 June 12-13* Jul/Aug 31-1 September 25-26* November 7-8 December 18-19* * Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Chair. P a g e 13

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15 Phil Anderson s Economic Clock P a g e 15

16 2017/18 Solar Dates Solar Market Dates 2017/18 Probable dates for changes in trend and the highs & lows each month Solar Angle Solar Angle Solar Angle XAO 2018 XAO 2017 Reference Angle High Low January Febuary March April May June July August September October November December Note If the date is a weekend the likely change of trend date may be the Friday or Monday Summary of Opportunities Foundations Trading Plan Successful Investor Mindset Plan Action - Review Invest with the Cycle Review the Calnan Flack Cycle Map and Share Market Timetable Monthly Set aside a regular time to study the Calnan Flack Bogs and Forecast Updates Review and analyse the Vagg Levels and Composite Trend Lines Take Action Review and Finalise your Trading Plan Invest in assets which have the best probability of growth in the current market Review your Trading Plan and Calendar to include how you will leverage the Forecast Dates Review the markets you will trade based on the Calnan Flack Forecasts Current Opportunities for Property Investors Invest in property early in the cycle Plan property portfolio of multiple properties Credit, Lending & Investing Use your cycle Knowledge to leverage finance opportunities The Australian Share Market Opportunities Leverage the run up to the Mid Cycle Peak at approx (13550) expected Nov 2019 Focus Share Market Investing in the Calnan Flack Green Sectors and Avoid the Red Look for the Strongest Shares in the Green Sectors Evaluate if you have time to do it yourself or should you use the Calnan Flack SMA s solution to invest with the economic and investment cycles P a g e 16

17 Warning & Important Notice Forecasting is a very difficult exercise and should be undertaken with care. Anything that is represented here should be treated with great caution and not relied upon. Anyone can make a forecast but it should NOT be assumed that it will be correct. Forecasting will NOT make you any money, for most it is purely an intellectual exercise. DISCIPLINED TRADING AND INVESTING MAKES YOU MONEY. A FORECAST IS NOT A SUBSTITUTE FOR A PERSONAL INVESTMENT PLAN! These predictive models rely on certain assumptions including but not limited to, the market continuing to revert to the mean as defined by the Vagg Composite Line. That the cycle drivers of technology, infrastructure, population, credit & government granted licences will continue to drive and manifest in an investment and credit cycle. That future investment cycles will continue to behave in the same or similar manner as past cycles. These models may have limitations. Known and unknown risks and other uncertainties may arise which impact the assumptions used in the modelling. This may result in expected estimates and timing being materially different from actual outcomes. Calnan Flack and associates make no claim or guarantee as to the future accuracy or reliability of these models. The strategies shown in this workshop are based upon scientific and repeatable processes. This process can be repeated, but the outcomes or results of these forecasts can vary widely to the actual market action. While providing a framework for your thinking, expectation and helping you focus your attention NO claim or guarantee is being made that these actual concepts and methods shown will result in investment or trading profits. The price and value of investments and their income fluctuates. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance and all examples shown are for illustration purposes only. There is an inherent risk and the possibility of losses in investing and trading just as there is the possibility of profits. Trading and investing may not be appropriate for all attendees as some people do not have a suitable risk profile/psychological aptitude. Any advice provided should be considered General Advice as it does not take into account your personal needs and objectives or your financial circumstances. You should therefore consider these matters yourself before deciding whether the advice is appropriate for you and whether you should act upon it. Invest and Trade at your own risk and take responsibility for your own actions. Jeremy Calnan, Ian Flack, Cathy Stacey, Jonathan Evans and Calnan Flack Pty Ltd (ACN AR ) are all authorized Representatives of PGW Financial Services Pty Ltd, ABN , AFSL COPYRIGHT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED No part of this workshop may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior written permission of the authors. THE ECONOMY NEVER DOES WHAT THE MAJORITY OF PEOPLE ARE PREPARING FOR THEIR PREPARATION ENSURES IT WON'T HAPPEN! P a g e 17

18 Notes P a g e 18

19 CALNAN FLACK Separately Managed Accounts Calnan Flack has two SMA Models on the Powerwrap Platform. Complete Investment Solution The Calnan Flack SMA s offer a complete investment solution to investors seeking to invest their funds into the Australian share market using our expert knowledge of economic cycles. Australian Share Fund Dynamic Asset Allocation Index Fund With an Opportunistic investment style and a focus on Growth, this Australian shares fund consists predominately of shares from the ASX 300 index and Listed ETFs. This fund is benchmarked to the Morningstar Multi-Sector Growth Market Index. This fund seeks to enhance investment returns by making changes to the underlying asset allocation of the fund based on changing market conditions. This fund is benchmarked to the cash rate plus 2%. Returns to 18/05/2018 Returns to 18/05/2018 HOLDINGS - Australian Share Fund HOLDINGS Dynamic Asset Allocation Code BRG BSL CAR FLT GEAR MND MQG NST PMV RIO SDA SEK SUN TPM Name BREVILLE GROUP BLUESCOPE STEEL CARSALES.COM LIMITED FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED BETASHARES GEARED AUSTRALIAN EQUITY FUND (HEDGE FUND) ETF UNITS FULLY PAID MONADELPHOUS GROUP MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED RIO TINTO LIMITED FPO SPEEDCAST INTERNATIONAL LIMITED SEEK LIMITED SUNCORP GROUP TPG TELECOM LIMITED Code GEAR STW VAS IAA IVV IAF VAF VAP Name BETASHARES GEARED AUSTRALIAN EQUITY FUND (HEDGE FUND) ETF UNITS FULLY PAID SPDR S&P/ASX 200 FUND ETF VANGUARD AUSTRALIAN SHARES INDEX ETF ISHARES ASIA 50 ETF ISHARES S&P 500 ETF ISHARES CORE COMPOSITE BOND ETF VANGUARD AUSTRALIAN FIXED INTEREST INDEX ETF VANGUARD AUSTRALIAN PROPERTY SECURITIES INDEX ETF ETF UNITS FULLY PAID *Performance returns and Holdings are as at 18 th May 2018 This document provides general information only and has not been prepared having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before making an investment decision, you need to consider whether this information is appropriate to your objectives, financial situation and needs. No person should act on the basis of any matter contained in this document without obtaining specific professional advice. This is not an offer document and does constitute a recommendation, offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. This material has been prepared as general information only and is only intended to provide a summary of the subject matter covered. Further information can be found in the Product Disclosure Statement and accompanying Approved Product List that can be found on the Powerwrap website. This document contains or is based upon information that we believe to be accurate and reliable. While every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy Calnan Flack Pty Ltd makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy of the information presented and takes no responsibility or liability (including for indirect, consequential or incidental damages), for any error, omission or inaccuracy in the data supplied. To the fullest extent allowed by law, Calnan Flack Pty Ltd, PGW Financial Services Pty Ltd and Powerwrap Limited exclude all liability (whether arising in contract, from Authorised negligence Representatives or otherwise) in respect of PGW of Financial all and each Services part of the Pty document, Ltd AFSL including without Copyright limitation, 2018 any errors All Rights or omissions. Reserved The price and value of investments and their income fluctuates. Past performance is not an indication of future returns. All amounts are quoted in Australian Dollars ($AUD). Calnan Flack Pty Ltd is an Authorised Representative of PGW Financial Services Pty Ltd AFSL PCopyright a g e 19 Calnan Flack Pty Ltd All rights reserved.

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