Growth. Quarterly Performance Update: Q Andrew Lill, FIA Chief Investment Officer, Asia-Pacific

Transcription

1 Andrew Lill, FIA Chief Investment Officer, Asia-Pacific Peter Bull Head of Equities & Property Quarterly Performance Update: Q3 15 Quarterly Return % Portfolio Objective Outperformance Market Commentary The panic that gripped markets during May and June continued into this quarter as confirmation of a slowing Chinese economy, an unexpected devaluation in the Yuan and differing views regarding the timing of U.S. interest rate rises weighed on investor sentiment. How the Portfolio Performed The portfolio delivered a return of -.6% for the quarter. This was achieved in an extremely volatile period for global markets that saw the MSCI All Countries World ex Australia ($A Hedged) and S&P/ASX 3 Accumulation Indices fall by -7.9% and -6.47%, respectively. Whilst a negative quarterly return is disappointing, Ibbotson s disciplined approach to asset allocation and focus on preserving capital ensured that the impact of weaker equity markets was minimised. Pleasingly, the portfolio continues to outperform its inflation plus objective, over longer timeframes, being up 8.1% for the 1 months to 3 September 15. Long Term Target % Defensive Portfolio Overview Defensive assets performed well in this environment with Australian bonds & cash adding positively to the portfolio. Given our expectation of poor returns in a number of key asset classes, we were holding higher than normal levels of cash, which proved to be a very prudent decision, as equity markets sold off heavily. Australian property and alternatives also added to the portfolio; the performance of the latter again highlighting its low correlation with traditional asset classes. Current Asset Allocation % The International equities asset class was the largest detractor on the portfolio s performance for the quarter. More specifically, our exposure to Emerging Market equities weighed on the portfolio s performance and Japanese equities also had a negative impact, although they remain one of the few regions to deliver meaningfully positive equity returns over the past 1 months. Whilst the performance of International equities was poor, the effect of these losses were, however, limited by the portfolio being largely currency unhedged at a time when the Australian dollar weakened significantly against all major currencies. As previously noted, Australian equities also fell heavily, and indeed, were the second largest detractor on performance, despite us being relatively underweight the asset class. Cash Outlook We continue to expect heightened volatility in markets as geopolitical and macroeconomic issues play out. In our view, having a valuation-driven dynamic asset allocation approach in this environment will be crucial to achieving investment objectives, over the longer term. Following the recent pullback, a number of asset classes are now much more attractively priced than what they were (although markets are, on the whole, by no means cheap ). As such, valuations are now supportive of incrementally increasing the allocation to growth assets in the portfolio. Importantly, we still retain an overweight position to cash, in preparation for more compelling opportunities, as they arise. Notwithstanding their negative contribution to portfolio performance during the quarter, Emerging Market equities remain attractively priced, particularly with regards to opportunities in South Korea & Taiwan. In addition, Australian equities are showing positive expected returns for the first time in more than two years. By contrast, our expectations for foreign currency returns have fallen, which would favour increasing the level of currency hedging across the portfolio (although we still remain majority unhedged). Australian property is also relatively less attractive.

2 Performance Overview Compound Returns % Contribution to Return by Asset Class % Over the Quarter 5 CPI plus 3.5% pa Cumulative Return % Sep-1 Jun-13 Mar-14 Dec-14 Sep-15 Alternativ es C as h Total Returns % 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year 3 Years (pa) Inception (pa) 1, CPI + 3.5% pa Outperformance Risk Overview vs Peer Average 3 Returns and Drawdown % Since Inception Drawdown % Returns Max Drawdown -6-7 Sep-1 Jun-13 Mar-14 Dec-14 Sep-15 Morningstar Morningstar 1. Investment performance is before tax and after the standard management fee of.66% (inclusive of GST). Investment performance is shown from 3/6/1 and represents modelled performance only and assumes income received is reinvested. An individual investor s performance will differ from the modelled performance depending on factors such as transaction timing, actual management fees, whether income is paid and any divergence from model portfolio weightings.. Management fees can be negotiated and may be less than the standard management fee. The portfolio may include exchange traded funds which charge management fees and these are an additional cost to individual investors and impact their return. 3. Peer Average is the Morningstar Australia Open End Multisector category, which contains multi-sector funds with percent of their investments in the growth asets of shares and property.

3 Allocation Overview Asset Allocation % DAA vs Range % 6 Current Quarter Last Quarter Range Jun-1 Jan-13 Aug-13 Mar-14 Oct-14 May-15 Sep-15 3 Global Infrastructure International Property Cash International Property Global Infrastructure C ash Equity Sector Regional Allocations % Sector Allocations % 14 Last Quarter Current Quarter 6 Last Quarter Current Quarter Australia Japan Emerging Markets North America Pacific ex-japan Europe ex-uk UK Consumer Discretionary Health Care Financials Materials Utilities Telecommunication Information Technology Industrials Consumer Staples Energy Current Asset Allocation Vs Peer Average % 1 Actual Allocation Asset Class Active Weight Cash 15.8 Underweight Overweight Peer Average is the Morningstar Australia Open End Multisector category, which contains multi-sector funds with percent of their investments in the growth asets of shares and property.

4 Portfolio Holdings Holding Consumer Discretionary ARB Corp. Ltd. ARB Narrow Reduce ,84 InvoCare Ltd. IVC Narrow Accumulate ,194 Navitas Ltd. NVT None Hold ,494 Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd SKC Narrow Hold ,973 Trade Me Group Ltd. TME Wide Hold ,33 Crown Ltd. CWN Narrow Accumulate ,11 Sky Network Television Ltd. SKT Narrow Hold ,658 Consumer Staples Woolworths Ltd. WOW Narrow Accumulate ,463 Financials Platinum Asset Management Ltd. PTM Narrow Accumulate ,969 ASX Ltd. ASX Wide Hold ,333 Genworth Mortgage Insurance GMA None Accumulate ,495 Health Care Sonic Healthcare Ltd. SHL Narrow Accumulate ,34 ResMed Inc. RMD Narrow Accumulate ,16 Ansell Ltd. ANN Narrow Accumulate ,883 Industrials GWA Group Ltd. GWT Narrow Reduce Information Technology IRESS Ltd. IRE Narrow Hold ,53 Materials BHP Billiton Ltd. BHP Narrow Accumulate ,37 DuluxGroup Ltd DLX Narrow Accumulate ,8 South3 Ltd S3 None Buy ,67 Telecommunication Utilities Code Morningstar Economic Moat Rating Morningstar/ Chant West/ Lonsec Current Portfolio Weight (%) Telstra Corp. Ltd. TLS Narrow Hold ,586 AGL Energy Ltd. AGK Narrow Reduce ,775 Rating Yield/ Distribution Price ($) Return (%) Market Capitalisation ($ million)

5 Portfolio Holdings Morningstar/ Holding Code Morningstar Economic Moat Rating Chant West/ Lonsec Rating Current Portfolio Weight (%) Yield/ Distribution Price ($) Return (%) Market Capitalisation ($ million) ishares MSCI Japan ETF IJP ,51 Core (Unhedged) INT17AU - 4 Apples Core (Hedged) INT16AU - 4 Apples ishares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF IEM ,39 ishares MSCI BRIC ETF IBK Betashares GBP ETF POU GPT Group GPT Narrow Hold ,95 Westfield Corp WFD Narrow Hold ,719 Scentre Group SCG Narrow Hold ,765 Dexus Property Group DXS Narrow Hold ,941 Goodman Group GMG Narrow Accumulate ,355 Shopping Centres Australasia Property Group SCP None Accumulate ,47 Federation Centres FDC Narrow Hold ,847 Stockland Australia SGP Narrow Accumulate ,153 Ibbotson Diversified Trust INT97AU - Investment Grade ishares Composite Bond ETF IAF Ibbotson Active (Hedged) Trust INT8AU Investment Grade Cash ishares Government Inflation ETF ILB Cash & Cash Equivalents BetaShares Australian High Interest Cash ETF AAA

6 Transactions over the Quarter There were no transactions over the quarter

7 Portfolio Overview This is an actively managed diversified portfolio of growth assets - such as Australian and global equities and property and defensive asset classes - such as cash and fixed interest securities. In general, the portfolio s long term average exposure will be around 7% growth assets and 3% defensive assets. Within allowable asset allocation ranges, we manage allocations actively depending on market conditions. Diversified Managed Accounts Asset Allocation Return Objective Time Horizon Risk Profile Assets % Defensive CPI+.75% Rolling 1 year Low Defensive Assets % Conservative CPI+ 1.% Rolling 3 years Low to Medium 3 7 Balanced CPI+.5% Rolling 5 years Medium 5 5 CPI+ 3.5% Rolling 7 years Medium to High 7 3 High CPI+ 4.5% Rolling 9 years High High Plus CPI+ 5.% Rolling years High 95 5 Diversified Income CPI+.% Rolling 4 years Medium 4 6 This document is issued by Ibbotson Associates Australia Limited (ABN , AFS Licence No. 8986) ( Ibbotson ). Ibbotson is a member of the Morningstar group of companies ( Morningstar ). 15 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. In compiling this document, Ibbotson has relied on information and data supplied by Morningstar and other third party information providers. Whilst all reasonable care has been taken to ensure the accuracy of information provided, neither Ibbotson, Morningstar nor their third party information providers accept responsibility for any inaccuracy or for investment decisions or any other actions taken by any person on the basis or context of the information included. Any Morningstar ratings/recommendations contained in this report are based on the full research report available from Morningstar or your adviser. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Neither Ibbotson nor Morningstar guarantees the performance of any investment or the return of capital. The information provided is general advice only has been prepared without reference to an individual person s objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable the relevant disclosure document before making any decision to invest. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, individuals should contact a professional financial adviser. For a copy of the relevant disclosure document, please contact our Distribution Team on Some material is copyright and published under licence from ASX Operations Pty Ltd ACN