Portfolio Vital Statistics

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Lucas Heath
5 years ago
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1 Portfolio Vital Statistics Commenced on 10 June 2016 with $250,000. Sat on cash for awhile then first stocks purchased in week of 7/7/2016 Now worth $386,347 Total Portfolio performance since inception 22.36% pa Performance on funds invested in securities since inception 29.37% Cash in portfolio $736 (fully invested) Rinse and repeat. We pretty much do the same thing week in week out and repete over and over and over. This is not an action packed blog full of new stuff it s more like real life portfolio management

2 Current Portfolio Valuation.

3 Since Inception performance table Performance since inception (PA) incl divs Newsletter Portfolio (incl cash) 22.36% Stocks in portfolio 29.37% XJOAI 14.17% Star Growth Stocks 13.3% Star income stocks 12.62% Comment. We currently have 21 securities and about ~$0.7k approx in cash fully invested Losers >10% - Losers 5.1%-10% 2 Losers 0%-5% 2 Gainers 0%-5% 4 Gainers 5.1%-10% 3 Gainers10.1% - 20% 5 Gainers 20%-30% 1 Gainers 30%-50% 2 Gainers 50%-80% 2 80%+ - Portfolio comment. Asymmetry in returns. More winners than losers. Moral of story Cut off losers quickly. Let winners run. 12/21 stocks closed green for the week All stocks are in hold territory. All look quite safely above potential sell signals

4 Status of US and Aus Markets. Green RED USA DJA 1 USA S&P500 1 USA Nasdaq 1 USA Russell USA VIX (inverted (means 1 Green is shown as RED) USA DJA Futures 1 USA S&P 500 Futures 1 USA NASDAQ Futures 1 USA Russell 2000 Futures 1 Aus XAOAI 1 AUS XMD 1 AUS XSOAI 1 AUS XVI (Vix) (inverted) 1 Mostly Green means go To me this table gives me permission to take my cash in bank and expose it to the market (If I had any that is).

5 ASX Indices with ROAR above 20% and above 10% ASX indices which closed the week with ROAR 6month) above 20%. (purpose of this section.if an index is going up perhaps consider looking at its component stocks to check for anything worth buying). Indices growing > 20% ROAR 6month or over 10 but under 20% Over 20% Over 10% XAOAI. All ords Total return 1 XDJ Consumer Discretionary 1 XEC Emerging Companies XEJ ASX 200 Energy 1 XFJ ASX 200 Financials XGD ASX 300 Gold 1 XHJ ASX 200 Health Care 1 XIJ ASX 200 Info Tech 1 XJRAI ASX 200 Resources TR XMD Midcap 50 XMJ ASX 200 Materials XMM ASX 300 Metals and Mining XNJAI ASX 200 Industrials XPJ Property Trusts 1 XSJ Consumer Staples 1 XSOAI Small Ords TR 1 XTJ Telecommunications XUJ ASX 200 Utilities 1 Comment. A fair bit less green than in recent weeks have gains run out of puff? Check out TTJ (telecoms) currently running at ROAR of -33% (6 months). A good way to destroy portfolio returns has been to hold telecoms over the past 6 months.

6 VALUE index update Let s call the value index. How it works: Filter stocks with the following criteria 1. Financial health = strong or satisfactory 2. Dividend yield >2.5% 3. PE <15 4. Price to NTA per share above zero and under 5 5. Enterprise value above $500m 6. Excludes mining stocks and most financials (as advised by Alan Hull) Search for Value count We search for (a) sharp increase or (b) decrease in stocks found by this filter. If there are many stocks here then buying value stocks might be a good strategy. If there are few perhaps it indicates we re at the top of the market? From this search the following stocks are possibly worth a look: AGL, BKW, HVN, IPL, NHC*, TGH, WHC* Comment. Graph still flat (sorry for gaps) prediction one day this chart will move strongly up who knows when but we ll see it here.and when it does we ll be very busy responding

Selling and Buying Report. We got a green signal to invest last week so all the cash we were sitting on was exposed to the markets and as you can see above we bought 4 stocks.

7 Selling and Buying Report. We got a green signal to invest last week so all the cash we were sitting on was exposed to the markets and as you can see above we bought 4 stocks. Surprisingly JIN hit it s sell signal on a daily basis and was sold and wouldn t I know it it bounced back to end the week above the sell signal meaning perhaps I should have held. I guess that s part of the game.

Stocks worth assessing as suitable for purchase if conditions are right this week Basic Strategy securities ETF Strategy Large Cap Strategy

thinking about adding them to my holdings. How I d use this table. I d scan the stocks on this table.

From the remaining stocks pick the best to invest in and add to the portfolio (try to have between 20 and 30 stocks in the portfolio).

8 Stocks worth assessing as suitable for purchase if conditions are right this week Basic Strategy securities ETF Strategy Large Cap Strategy Lincoln Stocks Strategy Value+Market Strategy Hull Income Investing Strategy You can safely assume that I either own the above stocks or are thinking about adding them to my holdings. How I d use this table. I d scan the stocks on this table. Reject immediately any that I don t like for any reason. From the remaining stocks pick the best to invest in and add to the portfolio (try to have between 20 and 30 stocks in the portfolio). Of critical importance Sell any that hit a sell signal and then re-invest the funds whenever all markets seem to be pointing up. *****Note to self Do not follow this approach if all markets are pointing down for such a market open up your down market strategy and do something different.

9 Strategies explained. Each strategy attempts to find stocks or ETFs that meet the following criteria. (a) Acceptable Fundamentals (b) Acceptable daily trade volume (c) Acceptable market support at current prices. Go back and read newsletter Year 2 Week 25 for full description of the strategies. (note I ve added here the hull income investing strategy (it s simply choosing stocks from the filter described earlier in this newsletter and looking for those that also have market support).

Bonus Charts: In this section I ll sometimes list a chart that catches my eye and provide a brief comment.

With such a high growth forecast and more forecast for year 2 perhaps it is. Doesn t seem to highly priced to jump aboard now does it? LOV Returns inc divs(approx.

it) and then the price bounced to be just above the second sell signal. Can it rally from here?

10 Bonus Charts: In this section I ll sometimes list a chart that catches my eye and provide a brief comment. Chart Comment NGI* Returns inc divs 5year 3 year 1 year 56% 46% 140% Borderline Stock ROA+1 16% EPSG+1 95% Div prospective ~4% gross PE+1 20x and PEG 0.21 Is this stock priced cheaply? With such a high growth forecast and more forecast for year 2 perhaps it is. Doesn t seem to highly priced to jump aboard now does it? LOV Returns inc divs(approx.) 5year 3 year 1 year NA% 55% 181% Strong stock Div yield ~3% gross PE forecast about 33x EPSG forecast 21% Featuring here for a 2 nd week during last week it crossed both sell signals (and I sold it) and then the price bounced to be just above the second sell signal. Can it rally from here? I d give it a 20% chance of rallying and 80% of falling (this is purely based on my experience of stocks that hit their sell signal rather than any analysis of this particular company) IPH* Returns inc divs(approx.) 5year 3 year 1 year NA% 7% 9% Satisfactory Stock EPSG prospective 16% (year 2 15%) Div yield prospective ~6% PE prospective is about 18x ROA/ROE +1 ~19% and 25% The market disliked IPHs last profit announcement (which contained a large one off loss). Perhaps the market is now seeing this stock in a different light.

Copper Prices Copper prices continue to fall. Ominous sign perhaps? Inverted Yield Curve? Look at these charts.

11 Parting comment USA Stock Markets What do you see when you look at these markets? I personally see the recent falls erased and markets have returned to growth and VIX indicates fear is losing steam? Copper Prices Copper prices continue to fall. Ominous sign perhaps? Inverted Yield Curve? Look at these charts. Long Term Bond Prices are going up (meaning long term interest rates are going down). Short Term Bond prices are going down (meaning short term rates are going up). News sources are now starting to chatter about an inverted yield curve but what is that?

(source Investopedia.com ) So we have copper prices diving AND an inverted yield curve AND fuel prices at or near recent highs. Does this mean we re headed for a correction really who knows.

12 (source Investopedia.com ) So we have copper prices diving AND an inverted yield curve AND fuel prices at or near recent highs. Does this mean we re headed for a correction really who knows. For me this means keep a close eye on the sell button and feel free to press it whenever a stock hits a sell signal. AND don t reinvest unless the market gives us a clear signal that it s probably going up.

13 What does it all mean? This is my message to myself Stick to my sell signal process. Go to 100% cash if required. Don t assume I can understand the market, or even individual stocks Fundamentals are simply too complicated to understand. Even the CEO of a large company with access to all sorts of inside data can struggle. Even the analysts of big banks with teams of people doing work with much better access than I ll ever have to data can get it wrong. Approach every holding is an experiment to be proven right or wrong by the market. Do not think that I can outsmart the market. Buy good quality stocks that have market support and let them run for as long as they appreciate. Be disciplined check for sells daily check for buys weekly. If there s nothing to buy don t chase just wait. If there s something to sell don t wait sell. (note to self read this sentence a few times and pay attention I can see that I ve been guilty of breaking this rule.don t do something because I m emotionally driven to do something.) What s your plan?. Can you describe it clearly. Can you write it down. Can you follow it with discipline. Do you know if you re following your plan or straying? If you don t have a written plan what is the very first thing you can do to make the plan more concrete, clearer and likely to be followed? Can you do that first thing today? Warning. This newsletter is provided for your entertainment only, I m not a financial adviser, I have not taken account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should therefore consider the appropriateness of any descriptions of my Newsletter and its newsletter portfolio in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs, before taking any actions. All views and information expressed in this newsletter are not the views of Lincoln and or its directors, agents, representatives and employees. Many of the graphs and screen shots are taken from Lincoln services and are fully credited to them. I m a paid up licensee to Lincoln, otherwise all IP in their system and graphs belongs totally to them. I recommend that you consider signing up to their service it s a great service and I feel great value for money! I do invest and trade in shares, I ll usually mark the ones that I own with (** or *) however it s safe for you to imagine that I m either buying or selling just about any stock in the market, particularly and especially if mentioned here.

Portfolio Vital Statistics

Portfolio Vital Statistics Commenced on 10 June 2016 with $250,000. Sat on cash for awhile, first stocks purchased 7/7/2016 Now worth $387,359 Total Portfolio performance since inception 22.17% pa Performance