Asset Management 2020

Transcription

1 Asset Management 2020 A Brave New World Thomas Steinbauer Fund Manager Forum 27. November 2014

2 PLAN ADAPT Introduction: Mega trends at play in the world Global and local instability Regulatory Fiscal Political and social Commercial Rise and interconnectivity of the emerging markets (SAAAME) Economic strength Trade Population Capital balances Resource allocation Demographic change Population growth discrepancies Ageing populations Changing family structures Belief structures Social and behavioural change Urbanisation Global affluence Talent Changing customer behaviours social media Attitudes to FIs Technological change Disruptive technologies impacting FS Digital and mobile Technological and scientific R&D and innovation War for natural resources Oil, gas and fossil fuels Food and water Key commodities Ecosystems Climate change and sustainability Rise of state-directed capitalism State intervention Country/city economic strategies Investment strategies SWFs/development banks Source: analysis Project Blue 2

3 Agenda 1 Challenges facing the AM industry 2 The landscape in Nothing to hide, nowhere to hide, and nothing at risk 4 AM 2020: Game changers 3

4 Challenges facing the AM industry 4

5 Asset Managers are currently in a challenging and rapidly evolving environment Customers Life Insurance Cos. experiencing severe challenges to their business models An increasingly sophisticated, aware customer base seeking value in their investment providers The changing and lengthening retirement journey Growing propensity around DIY behaviour online Investors High demand for income, in the form of dividends Higher returns on offer in other/overseas markets shareholders seeking to extract cash / capital to redeploy Key challenges for Asset Managers 1. Maintaining / growing volumes and revenues 2. Re-positioning cost bases for value growth 3. Balancing sustainable profit and customer outcomes 4. Generating cash and attractive shareholder returns 5. Avoiding regulatory intervention (S166 in the UK) Distributors Distributors moving towards ownership of the customer Seeking providers who can help them reduce costs in other ways Rebuilding a new value chain Regulators Regulatory scrutiny continues around three themes: Customer protection (MiFID II, RDR in the UK, FCA, AIFMD) Fairness for customers Tax (FATCA) Higher cost and focus on evidencing compliance with pressure on excessive returns Sources: research, analysis and selection of major trends and drivers of change 5

6 The landscape in

7 The landscape in 2020 Global AuM to exceed $100 trillion 120 AuM in USD trn 100 = CAGR 6.0% , % % , ,4 47, ,5 18,7 16,1 28.5% 15.4% 16.3% 28,8 3.8% 1.1% 1.3% 30,4 25,4 27,0 9.3% 5.7% 5.4% 41, Mutual Funds Mandates Alternative Investments Source : analysis Past data based on Hedge Fund Ressearch, ICI, Preqin, Towers Watson, and the City UK data. 7

8 The landscape in 2020 Growth driven by SAAAME 120 AuM in USD trn 100 = CAGR ,5 6, , ,6 3, % 35.9% 18.5% ,6 6,4 21,0 8.8% 10.4% 3.6% ,6 7,7 19,7 11.9% 12.5% 9.8% 27, ,9 19,9 17.5% 14.8% -1.2% 30,1 33,2 2.0% 4.4% 5.1% 49, North America Europe Asia Pacific Latin America Middle East and Africa Source : analysis Past data based on Hedge Fund Ressearch, ICI, Preqin, Towers Watson, and the City UK data. 8

9 Nothing to hide, nowhere to hide, and nothing at risk 9

10 Regulatory developments are shaping client outcomes and driving greater transparency UK RDR : post 2012 Commission ends, adviser charging introduced Client Clarity: Independent / restricted / no advice choice Higher adviser qualifications (Level 4) required Commission ban on platforms likely in 2014 U.S. Pension Protection Act (PPA) of legislation mandating 401(k) participants have access to detailed information related to fees, expenses and uniform investment-related information EU MiFID II getting clearer but final texts will appear in 2014? Q4 2015? May restrict which products could be sold through execution only, potential restrictions on bundling products and services UCITS VI and PRIPs Germany Commission prohibited unless it can be linked to be better customer outcomes Netherlands The Dutch Government has banned commissions on retail investment products from 2013 to force advisers to be more transparent with clients about costs Advisory price war started Source: Analysis NB: Some of these regulatory developments are proposals and therefore are directional and thematic, with final rules expected later France Regulator supports ban on inducements for discretionary portfolio services Greater disclosure on commissions across all savings products Singapore The Private Banking Advisory group launched a Code of Conduct for private banks in Singapore The Monetary Authority of Singapore has presented recommendations related to their Financial Advisory Industry Review, which include cap on commissions for life insurance products, creation of an aggregator site for investment products and greater disclosure standards Switzerland A position paper has been published covering similar requirements as MiFID and Swiss Government is preparing a proposal for a new financial services act Hong Kong Regulation TDB as funds regime established India The SEBI has introduced new regulations that go in force from 20 April 2013, which restrict commissions on Investment Advisory business They also have a series of broader recommendations related to investor protection Australia Future of Financial Advice (FOFA) regulation is in effect from July 2013 Key focus areas of FOFA: Ban on commission on risk insurance products Addressing cost of advice Client mistrust of financial planners Complexity in the planning process Appropriateness of complex/simple advice solutions 10

11 Nothing to hide, nowhere to hide, and nothing at risk Corporate governance & executive Remuneration Nowhere to hide Audit reform Credit rating agencies AIFMD Shadow banking MiFID II Dodd Frank EMIR / CCP Volcker FATCA PRIPS / IMD II UCITS V Solvency II / CRD IV Nothing to hide Nothing at risk 11

12 AM 2020: Game-changers 12

13 Asset Management 2020 : a brave new world Asset management moves centre stage no longer in the shadows of its cousins in the banking and insurance industries Distribution is redrawn distinct regional fund distribution blocks will form allowing products to be sold pan-regionally Fee models are transformed - major territories will have increased regulation that improves disclosure and aligns interests with the investor Alternatives become more mainstream traditional active management will grow at a less rapid pace than passives and alternatives New breed of global managers emerge with highly streamlined platforms providing targeted solutions for the customer Asset management enters the 21 st century technology becomes mission critical 13

14 Asset management moves center stage Drivers Contraction of the banking and insurance sectors Retirement and healthcare costs Urban growth and infrastructure needs SWFs growth Relationship with policy makers Governance and transparency Asset Management Priorities Education (policy makers; regulators; public and press) Product innovation Change in AM environment AM value proposition Policy makers and regulators will get AM AM viewed as part of the solution (not part of the problem) Higher degree of regulation supervision Retirement solutions driven from AM AM as core to major infrastructure financing Active SME financing through AM products Social message of AM consistently reinforced 14

15 Pension gap levels The United States alone can expect unfunded liabilities to exceed USD 4 trillion Gross replacement rate for an average earner from mandatory pension schemes in OECD countries Slovak Republic Turkey France Luxembourg Sweden Switzerland Finland Portugal Greece Norway Australia Estonia Poland Canada Czech Republic Germany Chile Belgium New Zealand Korea Slovenia United States Ireland Japan United Kingdom Mexico Mandatory pensions Pension gaps 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Replacement rate, % of individual earnings Sources: OECD; Richard A. Marin 15

16 Significant infrastructure investment needs At least USD 40 trillion will be needed for global urban infrastructure investments in the coming 20 years. Investment requirements for urban infrastructure to 2030, in USD trn Water Energy Roads and railways Ports and airports Source: Booz Allen Hamilton, Strategy & Business, no. 46, 2007 (from Booz Allen Hamilton, Global Infrastructure Partners, World Energy Outlook, OECD, Boeing, Drewry Shipping Consultants, U.S. Department of Transportation). 16

17 Distribution is redrawn Four distinct regional fund blocks by 2020 Main hubs for cross-border distribution Today 2020 Europe Europe Taiwan HK North Asia Chile Singapore Latin America South Asia Links between regional hubs 17

18 Fee models are transformed Regulators initiatives on fee models Regulators initiatives envisioned or enacted to ban certain fee models Regulators initiatives focussed on transparency Business as usual 18

19 Alternatives become more mainstream, passives are core Projection of active, alternative and passive investment within global AuM towards 2020 AuM in 2012 (USD trn) 11% % AuM in 2020 (USD trn) % % % 13% 13.0 Passive Alternative Active Passive Alternative Active Source : analysis. Past data based on ICI, Lipper, Hedge Fund Research, Preqin, The City UK and Towers Watson. 19

20 Alternatives move mainstream Alternative assets are expected to grow by 9.3% until The growth of alternatives will be driven by existing and emerging HNWIs and SWFs. Despite significant regulation of the sector, the demand for alternatives will continue to grow. Investors in search of greater alpha will broaden their exposure to include alternatives, especially in the current low yield environment Global Alternative assets in USD trn 13.0 = CAGR 28.5% 32.6% 2.5 0,3 1,1 1,1 31.5% 24.1% 9.3% 3.8% 5.3 0,7 2,5 14.9% 0.0% 6.4 1,4 2,5 2,1 3.5% 2,5 10.5% 9.4% 8.4% 3,1 5,1 4, Hedge Funds Private Equity Real Estate Source : analysis. Past data based on Towers Watson, The City UK, Preqin and Hedge Fund Research. 20

21 Passive will become core, growing at a faster pace than traditional active As previously stated, passive investments will show dramatic growth between now and In particular, innovation such as factor investing will fuel interest in passive products. This growth will also be driven by investors search for low cost and fee transparency in combination with the trend toward more diversified portfolios. The use of ETFs will significantly broaden as the level of sophistication increases. BlackRock, SSGA, Deutsche and other top asset managers have dramatically increased their ETF offerings during the last decade which has stimulated their development of new innovative products, including active ETFs Global Passive investments in USD trn = CAGR 15.2% 11.1% 25.7% 2.2 1,0 1,2 26.5% 25.1% 4.3 2,0 2,3 11.0% 11.3% 7.3 3,4 3,9 10,5 12, Mandates Investment Funds 15.0% 15.4% 22.7 Source : analysis. Past data based on ICIand Lipper. 21

22 ETFs will grow significantly ETFs projections towards 2020 AuM 2020 $ 6.81 trn PASSIVE ETFs AuM 2012 Passive ACTIVE ETFs $ 1.84 trn PASSIVE ETFs LEVERAGED ETFs SMART BETA Source : analysis. Past data based on ICI, Lipper. 22

23 New breed of global managers Their characteristics looking forward IT Use state-of-the-art technology to identify, segment and retain key clients Flexible use of technology allowing for economies of scale, specialisation of needs and improved reporting Markets & clients Global reach/presence in emerging markets Building strategic relationships Regaining trust of the general public Global managers Products & distribution Expansion of distribution capabilities Strong branding efforts Remuneration scheme Remuneration models aligned with investor needs rather than those of the firm Focus on non-financial performance Source: analysis HR Innovative recruitment and talent development Recruitment of local team in the key emerging markets Risk & regulation Develop firm-wide strategy to deal with new regulatory environment Increased focus on investor reporting and transparency Operation & change Streamline processes to reduce costs, increase scale and efficiencies 23

24 AM enters the 21st century TODAY DRIVERS CONSEQUENCES TOMORROW ASSET MANAGEMENT PLAYERS Social media Tailored products POTENTIAL NEW ENTRANTS? 40% of the top asset managers are not actively involved in social media and only 15% of asset managers active on social media are interactive Big data Cloud Accurate and timely information Cost reduction fund data? More than a quarter of asset managers are not sure whether the use of mobile technology for distribution or communication would play a critical role in their business Digital intelligence CRMs Interactive communication Efficiency and control fund platform? AM? 24

25 Thank you Thomas Steinbauer Partner Financial Services Asset Management Tel.: +43 (1) Fax: +43 (1) Mobile: