Etika International Holdings Ltd

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1 2QFY13 Results Update 17 May 2013 Outperform Current Price S$0.415 Fair Value S$0.465 Up / (downside) +12.0% Stock Statistics Market cap S$254.2m 52-low S$ high S$0.505 Avg daily vol 2,183,012 No. of share 612.5mil Free float 30.3% Key Indicators ROE 13F 9.7% ROA 13F 3.0% P/BK* 2.19x Gearing* 1.39x *As at 31 Mar 2013 Major Shareholders Tan Brothers 29.6% Tee Yih Jia Food Mfg 12.57% Source: Bloomberg Historical Chart Angelia Phua (+65) angelia.phua@nracapital.com Short-term operational issues hinder export drive Weaker than expected 2QFY13 PATMI due to export competition and operational issues at new plants. 2QFY13 PATMI of RM4.9m fell 5.9% YoY and 42.6% QoQ on the back of revenue decline of 5% YoY and 9.2% QoQ to RM234.4m. The weak performance was largely the result of lower export sales in Dairies arising from price competition from new players in the export market, particularly to the African market, delay in the commencement of commercial production of sweetened condensed milk (SCM) in the Surabaya plant that was originally scheduled in December 2012 as well as operational issues that impeded the new beverage plant in Hawkes Bay, New Zealand from achieving the targeted sales level. However, easing costs of key raw materials lifted gross profit (GP) 11.4% YoY and mitigated GP decline to -3.3% QoQ to RM56.1m resulting in an improvement in gross profit margin (GPM) by 3.5% points YoY and 1.4% points QoQ to 23.9% in 2QFY13. PATMI was further weighed down by higher than expected selling and marketing expenses (+28.7% YoY and 12.7% QoQ) due to intensive advertising and promotional campaigns incurred to promote sales of SCM by an Indonesian subsidiary. 2QFY13 result was below our expectations and as a result, 1HFY13 PATMI of RM13.5m amounted to only 38% of our FY13 PATMI estimate of RM35.1m. In view of production delays in the Surabaya plant and poorer than expected sales target achieved at the Hawkes Bay plant and instant noodle operations at PT Sentrafood Indonusa (PTSI), we lowered our FY13 forecast. In line with lower profitability, an interim FY13 dividend of 0.3Scts was declared (interim FY12 dividend of 0.5Scts). Resolve licensing issue in Indonesia by mid June Dairies will continue to receive a relatively steady revenue source from the domestic market while strong export demand from the regional markets will drive earnings growth. Keen competition to price sensitive export markets of Africa will continue to dampen volume growth as management undertakes not to compete aggressively on pricing. However, as licensing issues in Surabaya are resolved and Etika commences commercial production at the SCM plant in Surabaya (expected by June 2013), the additional 15% capacity will support Etika s regional export drive and cushion the weakness in export volume particularly from Africa. On a positive note, despite keen competition in the export market, GPM at Dairies are expected to hold firm in FY13 in view of the relatively stable key raw material prices in the near-term, the introduction of new highermargin milk products and management decision to compete on branding and quality. Economies of scale and restructuring. At Trading and Frozen Foods, margin pressure is expected as the trading operation suffers weaker margin due to higher raw material costs. However, this will be cushioned by scaling-up efforts at the Butchery operations as a result of growing demand from international fast-food chains and the closure of a loss-making FMCG unit. Scaling-up efforts at Texas Chicken fastfood restaurant to a total of seven (from the current three) outlets by end-fy13 will also enable the Group to achieve profitability, expected in FY14. The outlook for Nutrition remains subdued with intense competition from US products and weaker consumer sentiment in Australia and New Zealand. Demand for dairy and juice products from the new UHT Aseptic bottling plant in Hawkes Bay has been strong particularly from export market in China and the unit is expected to contribute positively to divisional bottomline in FY14 once operational issues facing the plant is resolved by 4QFY13. Others will benefit from strong export demand for energy drinks to China but losses at noodle manufacturer PTSI will weigh on divisional bottomline in FY13. Management is actively looking to turn around PTSI. Valuation and Recommendation. We lowered our earnings forecast in view of short-term headwinds facing the Surabaya and Hawkes Bay plants which are expected to push back contributions by about six to nine months. A firmer GPM ensuing from stabilising raw material prices in the near term will however cushion the bottomline. In the long-term, Etika will benefit from growing economies of scale from growing export demand for SCM. We expect the benefits of scaling-up efforts to come through in 4QFY13 onwards, (previously 2QFY13), and are expecting core earnings growth of 12% (FY13F) (previously +60%) lifted by capacity expansion for SCM in Indonesia, followed by growth of 40% (FY14F) (previously +34%) from scaling-up efforts in Indonesia, commercial production at the UHT Aseptic bottling plant in Hawkes Bay and reduced losses at PTSI. To reflect industry re-rating, we raise our valuation on Dairies to PER of 22x (FY14F) (previously PER of 20x (FY14F)) which is still conservative relative to industry PER of 24x (FY14F), and maintain the valuation for Frozen Foods at PER : 7x (FY14F), Nutrition :PER of 13x (FY14F). Maintaining our 10% discount to valuation, we marginally lowered the target price to 46.5Scts (previously 47.5 Scts). Maintain Outperform.

2 Key Financial Data (RM m, FYE Sep) A 2013F 2014F 2015F Sales , ,155.7 Gross Profit Net Profit EPS (cents) EPS growth (%) (58.9) (18.8) PER (x) NAV/share (cents) DPS (cents) Dividend Yield (%) Results comparison 2QFY2013 Results Profit & Loss (RMm) YoY QoQ Year end: 30 Sep 2QFY13 2QFY12 % Chg 2QFY13 1QFY13 % Chg Revenue % % Cost of Sales (178.3) (196.5) -9.2% (178.3) (200.2) -10.9% Gross Profit % % Negative goodwill - - nm - - nm Operating Expenses (42.6) (35.4) 20.2% (42.6) (41.0) 4.0% Administrative expenses (11.5) (10.9) 5.8% (11.5) (12.5) -7.4% Selling & Marketing expenses (18.5) (14.4) 28.7% (18.5) (16.4) 12.7% Warehouse and distribution expenses (11.7) (8.8) 33.9% (11.7) (12.8) -8.5% Research & development expenses (0.7) (0.6) 21.3% (0.7) (0.8) -5.4% Other operating expenses (net) (0.1) (0.8) -88.0% (0.1) 1.5 nm Operating Profit % % Finance Costs (6.4) (6.9) -7.3% (6.4) (6.7) -5.2% Pre-tax Profit % % Income tax (2.8) (3.1) -8.5% (2.8) (2.3) 25.1% Minority interest % % Net Profit % % Source: Company, NRA Capital page 2

3 Profit & Loss YE 30 September (RMm) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F Revenue , ,155.7 Cost of Sales (699.1) (780.2) (742.2) (829.7) (889.5) Gross Profit Operating Income Negative goodwill Administrative expenses (52.9) (46.0) (47.3) (49.7) (52.2) Selling & Marketing exp. (44.1) (59.3) (69.7) (77.1) (82.7) Warehouse & distribution exp (33.3) (38.8) (43.7) (45.4) (45.3) Research & Development exp (1.7) (2.3) (3.0) (3.3) (3.6) Other operating expenses (8.3) (6.4) (3.1) (3.1) (3.0) Operating Profit Net interest (20.6) (25.6) (25.0) (25.7) (25.4) Exceptional Items Profits from Associated Co Pre-tax Profit Income tax (5.6) (9.4) (11.5) (15.4) (15.4) Minority Interests Net Profit page 3

4 Balance Sheet YE 30 September (RMm) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F Cash & Fixed Deposit Trade Receivables Inventory Other current assets Current Assets Property, Plant and Equipment Others Non-current Assets Bank Borrowings Bank OD Trade Payable Others Current Liabilities Bank Borrowings Others Non-current Liabilities Shareholder's Equity page 4

5 Cash Flow YE 30 September (RMm) Cash flow from Operating activities 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F Pre-tax profits Adjustments Operating cash flow before working capital Changes in working capital (33.6) 20.1 (6.0) 6.2 (16.2) Tax paid & others (20.9) (16.1) (17.5) (15.4) (15.4) Net cash generated from operations Cash flow from investing activities Acquisition of subsi., net of cash (103.4) Property, plant & equipment (40.6) (72.0) (56.8) (49.4) (34.3) Others 0.0 (0.4) 2.6 (0.0) (0.0) Net cash from investing activities (144.5) (83.8) (60.2) (49.4) (34.3) Cash flow from financing activities Loans (13.9) (5.3) Net proceeds from issue of new shares Dividends paid (22.5) (15.7) (8.4) (11.6) (16.2) Others (17.9) (23.1) (30.7) (29.0) (28.7) Net cash from financing activities (54.6) (50.2) Net change in cash (28.8) (3.6) 3.8 Cash balance at beginning of year 25.3 (3.1) Other adjustments (0.4) 0.2 Cash balance at end of year (net of OD & adjms) (3.1) page 5

6 NRA Capital Pte. Ltd ( NRA Capital ) has received compensation for this valuation report. This publication is confidential and general in nature. It was prepared from data which NRA Capital believes to be reliable, and does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. No representation, express or implied, is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information or opinions in this publication. Accordingly, neither we nor any of our affiliates nor persons related to us accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, special or consequential damages or economic loss that may arise from the use of information or opinions in this publication. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. NRA Capital and its related companies, their associates, directors, connected parties and/or employees may own or have positions in any securities mentioned herein or any securities related thereto and may from time to time add or dispose of or may be materially interested in any such securities. NRA Capital and its related companies may from time to time perform advisory, investment or other services for, or solicit such advisory, investment or other services from any entity mentioned in this report. The research professionals who were involved in the preparing of this material may participate in the solicitation of such business. In reviewing these materials, you should be aware that any or all of the foregoing, among other things, may give rise to real or potential conflicts of interest. Additional information is, subject to the duties of confidentiality, available on request. You acknowledge that the price of securities traded on the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited ("SGX-ST") are subject to investment risks, can and does fluctuate, and any individual security may experience upwards or downwards movements, and may even become valueless. There is an inherent risk that losses may be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities traded on the SGX- ST. You are aware of the risk of exchange rate fluctuations which can cause a loss of the principal invested. You also acknowledge that these are risks that you are prepared to accept. You understand that you should make the decision to invest only after due and careful consideration. You agree that you will not make any orders in reliance on any representation/advice, view, opinion or other statement made by NRA Capital, and you will not hold NRA Capital either directly or indirectly liable for any loss suffered by you in the event you do so rely on them. You understand that you should seek independent professional advice if you are uncertain of or have not understood any aspect of this risk disclosure statement or the nature and risks involved in trading of securities on the SGX-ST. page 6

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