Etika International Holdings Ltd
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- Garey Martin
- 5 years ago
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1 Results Update Current Price 12 May 2011 Fair Value Neutral S$0.405 S$0.41 Angelia Phua Historical Chart Benefitted from lagged impact of price hike 2QFY11 results above our expectations. 2QFY11 PATMI of RM25.9m surged 100.5% YoY and 556.4% QoQ due to a one-off inclusion of negative goodwill of RM14.5m ensuing from the acquisition of PT Sentrafood and PT Sentraboga, an Indonesian instant noodle operations. Excluding this one-off item, 2QFY11 PATMI fell 11.4% YoY but surged 190.1% QoQ largely due to successful implementation of price hikes after the recent Lunar New Year in Malaysia at Dairies, which helped to absorb rising costs of key raw materials, in particular, milk powder, sugar and palm oil. As a result, Group GPM improved 3 percentage points QoQ but remained at 1.4 percentage points lower YoY. Improving revenue, which grew 44.5% YoY and 7.2% QoQ, as a result of improving sales performances of all five core divisons and profit contributions from newly acquired ready-to-drink and fresh bakery operations in Malaysia, further lifted the bottomline. 2HFY11 PATMI of RM15.4m (excluding oneoff item) amounted to about 52% of our FY11 estimate of RM29.6m and was above our expectations due to stronger-than-expected revenue growth as well as a seasonally stronger financial performance in the 2H compared to 1H. Source : Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Stock Statistics Market Cap S$216.5m 52-HI S$ LOW S$0.305 Avg Vol 319,378 Shares Outstanding 534.6m Free Float 168.3m Key Indicators ROE 35.7% ROA 15.1% P/BK* 2.3x Gearing* 1.3x *As at 31 Mar 2011 Major Shareholders Tan Family 52.15% Challenging operating environment. Supply disruption of raw materials due to adverse global climate and natural disasters are expected to result in further increase in raw material prices in the short term. In light of strong brand equity, we believe Etika will be able to successfully implement further price hikes to match rising costs of raw materials in the domestic markets. However, the Group is likely to continue to meet with price resistance in its key export market in West Africa with the recent weakness in domestic currency. Further, the recently acquired ready-to-drink operations in Malaysia which offers a higher margin, will also help to cushion overall margin pressure at Dairies. Other division. Packaging will continue to ride on growth in the Dairies. The strong Ringgit vs US dollar will mitigate the impact of higher costs of tin plates. Competition remains keen in Frozen Food but promising growth in higher-margin Butchery and Bakery business and the strong Ringgit will mitigate margin pressure. Faced with greater competition with the entry of US competitors into Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) and rising raw material costs, Nutrition will also come under margin pressure. However, new product innovation, coupled with price increases, will cushion against margin compression and help to retain its leading position in ANZ. Valuation and Recommendation. Etika has benefitted from a lagged impact of price hike in Dairies as evident in a 3 percentage point QoQ improvement in GPM in 2QFY11. In light of strong brand equity, we believe Etika will be able to successfully pass costs increases to customers through price adjustments. We are also expecting moderate revenue growth from organic growth and new businesses. We raised our core earnings estimate to -45.9% (FY11F) (previously -55.3%) but moderate the core earnings growth prospects for FY12 to +38.8% (previously +66.1%) as we expect the operating envirornment to remain challenging, followed by +34.8% (FY13F). We value Dairies at PER of 21x (FY12), Frozen Food :PER of 10x (FY12), Packaging :PER of 7x (FY12), Nutrition :PER of 16x (FY12) and Beverage : PER of 11x (FY12). We lowered the discount to valuation from 45% to 30% to account for the improving trend of GPM. Our valuation of 62.6Scts (previously 64Scts) accounted for the Ringgit weakness and dilutive impact of employee share option. Our target price of 41.0Scts (previously 35.5Scts) implies a PER of 15.7x (FY11), 11.3x (FY12) and 8.4x (FY13) on the core business. Neutral. page 1
2 Key Financial Data RMm YE 30 Sep FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F FY13F Sales ,039 Gross Profit Net Profit EPS (RM cents) EPS growth (%) PER (x) DPS (RM cents) Div Yield (%) QFY2011 Results Profit & Loss (RMm) YoY QoQ % % Year end: 30 Sep 2QFY11 2QFY10 Change 2QFY11 1QFY11 Change Revenue % % Cost of Sales (172.0) (116.9) 47.1% (172.0) (166.6) 3.2% Gross Profit % % Operating income % % Negative goodwill nm nm Operating Expenses (34.8) (23.1) 51.0% (34.8) (33.3) 4.6% Administrative expenses (9.2) (7.0) 30.5% (9.2) (9.3) -1.0% Selling & Marketing expenses (11.7) (8.0) 45.7% (11.7) (9.6) 21.8% Warehouse and distribution expenses (8.1) (7.3) 11.7% (8.1) (8.1) 0.9% Research & development expenses (0.4) (0.3) 49.5% (0.4) (0.4) 4.1% Other operating expenses (5.5) (0.5) % (5.5) (6.0) -9.3% Impairment of goodwill - - nm - - nm Operating Profit % % Finance Costs (4.0) (1.7) 143.8% (4.0) (3.4) 17.3% Pre-tax Profit % % Income tax (3.1) (2.7) 12.6% (3.1) (3.3) -5.8% Minority interest (0.5) 0.1 nm (0.5) % Net Profit % % EPS - fully diluted (RMcts) % % page 2
3 Profit & Loss YE 30 September (RMm) 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F Revenue ,038.9 Cost of Sales (447.8) (503.5) (704.5) (766.8) (821.8) Gross Profit Operating Income Negative goodwill Administrative expenses (30.2) (32.2) (37.3) (38.6) (38.0) Selling & Marketing exp. (24.7) (27.6) (40.5) (44.0) (47.1) Warehouse & distribution exp (22.0) (23.9) (34.0) (35.2) (36.9) Research & Development exp (1.0) (1.0) (1.7) (1.8) (1.9) Other operating expenses (2.9) (11.1) (22.3) (21.8) (21.0) Operating Profit Net interest (7.4) (8.2) (18.7) (17.2) (14.9) Exceptional Items Profits from Associated Co Pre-tax Profit Income tax (9.8) (13.7) (17.3) (17.7) (14.5) Minority Interests (0.0) 0.2 (0.9) (3.5) (4.0) Net Profit page 3
4 Balance Sheet YE 30 September (RMm) 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F Cash & Fixed Deposit Trade Receivables Inventory Other current assets Current Assets Property, Plant and Equipment Others Non-current Assets Bank Borrowings Bank OD Trade Payable Others Current Liabilities Bank Borrowings Others Non-current Liabilities Shareholder's Equity page 4
5 Cash Flow YE 30 September (RMm) Cash flow from Operating activities 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F Pre-tax profits Adjustments Operating cash flow before working capital Changes in working capital 24.0 (72.9) 10.0 (2.9) (3.0) Tax paid & others (8.6) (12.1) (16.2) (16.6) (13.4) Net cash generated from operations Cash flow from investing activities Acquisition of subsi., net of cash (1.3) (27.5) (114.9) (5.7) (0.3) Property, plant & equipment (36.0) (22.6) (14.6) (24.3) (24.3) Others Net cash from investing activities (36.8) (49.9) (124.1) (29.1) (23.0) Cash flow from financing activities Loans (31.4) (21.4) (27.1) Others (24.8) (26.5) (33.7) (29.9) (38.5) Net cash from financing activities (56.3) (51.3) (65.6) Net change in cash (19.3) Cash balance at beginning of year Other adjustments 0.4 (4.2) (0.2) 1.1 (3.6) Cash balance at end of year (net of OD & adjms) page 5
6 NRA Capital Pte. Ltd ( NRA Capital ) has received compensation for this valuation report. This publication is confidential and general in nature. It was prepared from data which NRA Capital believes to be reliable, and does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. No representation, express or implied, is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information or opinions in this publication. Accordingly, neither we nor any of our affiliates nor persons related to us accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, special or consequential damages or economic loss that may arise from the use of information or opinions in this publication. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. NRA Capital and its related companies, their associates, directors, connected parties and/or employees may own or have positions in any securities mentioned herein or any securities related thereto and may from time to time add or dispose of or may be materially interested in any such securities. NRA Capital and its related companies may from time to time perform advisory, investment or other services for, or solicit such advisory, investment or other services from any entity mentioned in this report. The research professionals who were involved in the preparing of this material may participate in the solicitation of such business. In reviewing these materials, you should be aware that any or all of the foregoing, among other things, may give rise to real or potential conflicts of interest. Additional information is, subject to the duties of confidentiality, available on request. You acknowledge that the price of securities traded on the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited ("SGX-ST") are subject to investment risks, can and does fluctuate, and any individual security may experience upwards or downwards movements, and may even become valueless. There is an inherent risk that losses may be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities traded on the SGX- ST. You are aware of the risk of exchange rate fluctuations which can cause a loss of the principal invested. You also acknowledge that these are risks that you are prepared to accept. You understand that you should make the decision to invest only after due and careful consideration. You agree that you will not make any orders in reliance on any representation/advice, view, opinion or other statement made by NRA Capital, and you will not hold NRA Capital either directly or indirectly liable for any loss suffered by you in the event you do so rely on them. You understand that you should seek independent professional advice if you are uncertain of or have not understood any aspect of this risk disclosure statement or the nature and risks involved in trading of securities on the SGX-ST. page 6
Etika International Holdings Ltd
Results Update Neutral Current Price 5 December 2011 Fair Value Source: Bloomberg S$0.265 S$0.28 Angelia Phua 65-62366-802 angelia.phua@nracapital.com Historical Chart Source : Bloomberg Stock Statistics
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