8th Latin America Executive Conference - Morgan Stanley January, 2016
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1 8th Latin America Executive Conference - Morgan Stanley January, 2016 FIBRIA APP WITH THIS PRESENTATION IS AVAILABLE FOR DOWNLOAD AT APPLE STORE AND GOOGLE PLAY.
2 2 Disclaimer The information contained in this presentation may include statements which constitute forward-looking statements, within the meaning of Section 27A of the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Such forward-looking statements involve a certain degree of risk and uncertainty with respect to business, financial, trend, strategy and other forecasts, and are based on assumptions, data or methods that, although considered reasonable by the company at the time, may turn out to be incorrect or imprecise, or may not be possible to realize. The company gives no assurance that expectations disclosed in this presentation will be confirmed. Prospective investors are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties, and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements, due to a variety of factors, including, but not limited to, the risks of international business and other risks referred to in the company s filings with the CVM and SEC. The company does not undertake, and specifically disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, which speak only for the date on which they are made.
3 1 Company 2 Pulp 3 Financial 4 Final Overview and Paper Market and Operational Highlights Remarks Agenda 3
4 Company Overview 4
5 A Winning Player Superior Asset Combination Main Figures 3Q15 LTM Pulp capacity million tons Net revenues US$ billion Total Forest Base (1) thousand hectares 967 Belmonte Veracel Caravelas Portocel Aracruz Planted area (1) thousand hectares 539 Net Debt US$ billion Net Debt/EBITDA (in Dollars) (2) X 1.58 Três Lagoas Jacareí Santos Port Terminal Pulp Unit Source: Fibria (1) Including 50% of Veracel, excluding forest partnership areas and forest bases linked to the sales of Losango and forest assets in Southern Bahia State. (2) For covenants purposes, the Net Debt/EBITDA ratio is calculated in Dollars. 5
6 Fibria s Units Industrial Capacity * Veracel is a joint venture between Fibria (50%) and Stora Enso (50%) and the total capacity is 1,120 thousand ton/year 6
7 7 Fibria s Commercial Strategy Sales Mix by End Use - Fibria Highlights Region - 3Q15 Europe 42% LatAm 8% N. America 25% Asia 25% Net Revenues by Region - Fibria End Use - 3Q15 Tissue 50% Specialties 14% Printing & Writing 36% 9% 9% 10% 9% 10% 8% 9% 8% 10% 9% 10% 10% 10% 9% 8% 29% 20% 22% 25% 26% 21% 25% 26% 26% 27% 24% 23% 26% 26% 25% 18% 26% 26% 30% 22% 29% 31% 31% 19% 23% 27% 27% 17% 24% 25% Worldwide presence Strong global customer base Long-term relationships Focus on customers with stable business Customized pulp products and services Sound forestry and industrial R&D Focus on less volatile end-use markets such as tissue Efficient logistics set up Low dependence on volatile markets such as China Low credit risk 100% certified pulp (FSC and PEFC/Cerflor) 44% 44% 42% 37% 43% 43% 35% 36% 46% 42% 39% 40% 47% 42% 42% 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 Europe North America Asia Other
8 8 Pulp Supply Agreement: Puma Project Puma Project Pulp volumes: Minimum of 900 kt of hardwood for the first 4 years 75% of 900 kt for the fifth year (phase out 1) 50% of 900 kt for the sixth year (phase out 2) Selling price based on the average net price charged by Fibria at the Port of Paranaguá (FOB Paranaguá) Sales destination: Globally, except for South America Operational startup: Mar/2016 Agreement benefits: Logistics and commercial structure synergies; Ensure sales volumes; Ensure pulp market access with Klabin brand. Logistics and commercial optimization and synergies; Support customers growth and enhance customers needs; Potential development of new customers. Mutual value creation, with better servicing for both Companies customer s base
9 Shareholder Structure and Corporate Governance Votorantim Industrial S.A. (1) 29.42% BNDES Participações (1) 29.08% Free Float (2) 41.50% Fiscal Council General Meeting Board of Directors 20% independent members Role of CEO and chairman is split Finance Committee Statutory Audit Committee Personnel and Remuneratio n Committee Sustainability Committee Innovation Committee 30% independent members 100% independent members 50% independent members 45% independent members - Only 1 class of shares 100% voting rights 100% tag along rights (Brazilian corporate law establishes 80%) Board of Directors with minimum 20% independent members Listed on Novo Mercado, highest level at BM&FBovespa: Financial Statements in International Standards IFRS Adoption of Arbitration Chamber SEC Registered ADR Level III program Policies approved by the Board of Directors: Indebtedness and Liquidity Market Risk Management Risk Management Corporate Governance Related Parties Transactions Anti-Corruption Information Disclosure Securities Trading Antitrust Genetically Modified Eucalyptus Dividend Policy NEW (1) Controlling group (2) Free Float 41.44% + Treasury 0.06% 9
10 10 Approval of Dividend Policy Commitment to Corporate Governance best practices. Proposed dividends based on cash generation, taking into consideration the company s strategic planning and in line with its policies, notably the Indebtness and Risk Management policies. Preserving Investment Grade. Extraordinary dividend if Policy criteria are met.
11 Pulp and Paper Market 11
12 The better than expected scenario has become a reality again in BHKP CAPACITY CHANGES EXPECTED SCENARIO FOR 2015 IN DEC 14 YEAR-TO-DATE SCENARIO IN 2015 Suzano Maranhão Montes del Plata Oji Nantong CMPC Guaiba II Eldorado Portucel Cacia Old Town (Expera) Sappi Cloquet April Rizhao Ence Huelva Possible closures* Net BEKP demand growth** to ,415 to 1, Suzano Maranhão Montes del Plata Oji Nantong CMPC Guaiba II Eldorado Portucel Cacia Old Town (Expera) Ence Navia Sappi Cloquet April Rizhao Ence Huelva Unexpected Downtimes Net Estimated BEKP demand growth** Indonesia, China, Uruguay and Brazil *Based on annual closures average (400,000 to 800,000 t/yr) **Source: PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp December 2014 **Source: Fibria estimates based on PPPC Market Pulp World 20 (BEKP 9M15: kt )
13 and so has been the price scenario BHKP Delivered to Europe (USD/t) * * Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 Annual 2015 Consultants average at the end previous year Realized PIX/FOEX price * Average until 12/21/15 Consultants: Hawkins Wright, RISI and Brian McClay (published in the end 2014 for 2015 prices) 13
14 14 But this time, demand has been the good surprise BHKP CAPACITY CHANGES EXPECTED SCENARIO FOR 2015 IN DEC 14 YEAR-TO-DATE SCENARIO IN 2015 Suzano Maranhão Montes del Plata Oji Nantong CMPC Guaiba II Eldorado Portucel Cacia Old Town (Expera) Sappi Cloquet April Rizhao Ence Huelva Possible closures* Net BEKP demand growth** to ,415 to 1,815 1,095 Suzano Maranhão Montes del Plata Oji Nantong CMPC Guaiba II Eldorado Portucel Cacia Old Town (Expera) Ence Navia Sappi Cloquet April Rizhao Ence Huelva Unexpected Downtimes Net Estimated BEKP demand growth** Indonesia, China, Uruguay and Brazil 1,450 1,500 *Based on annual closures average (400,000 to 800,000 t/yr) **Source: PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp December 2014 **Source: Fibria estimates based on PPPC Market Pulp World 20 (BEKP 9M15: + 1,105 kt )
15 Better worldwide macroeconomics are the key drivers But the special focus is on Europe 15 Real GDP % Annual Growth 7,7 7,7 7,3 6,8 6,3 3,4 3,3 3,4 3,1 3,6 0,9 1,5 1,6 2,2 1,5 2,4 2,6 2,8-0,8-0,3 World Euro Area USA China Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2015
16 But the special focus is on Europe Hardwood and Eucalyptus Shipments (000 t and % annual growth and YTD) % % 3.7% 5.0% 0-0.3% -0.8% -0.8% -0.6% YTD 2015* BHKP BEKP *YTD: 9M15 vs. 9M14 Source: PPPC World 20 16
17 17 So, what can we expect for 2016? BHKP CAPACITY CHANGES EXPECTED SCENARIO FOR 2016 IN NOV 15 FIBRIA S EXPECTED SCENARIO FOR 2016 CMPC Guaiba II 800 CMPC Guaiba II 800 Klabin 660 Klabin 660 Altri Celbi 30 Altri Celbi 30 Old Town (Expera) -40 Old Town (Expera) -40 Woodland -90 Woodland -90 Verso Wickliffe -55 Verso Wickliffe -55 APRIL Kerinci -120 APRIL Kerinci -120 Possible closures* -400 to -800 Possible closures* -200 Net 385 to 785 Net 985 BEKP demand growth** BEKP demand growth** 1500 *Based on annual closures average (400,000 to 800,000 t/yr) **Source: PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp May 2015 (930kt) and Fibria s estimates Positive Supply/Demand Balance!
18 Global Market BEKP Demand Shipments of Eucalyptus Pulp 11% 2014 vs (1) 9M2015 vs. 9M2014 (2) 1,734 kt 9% Total 5% 92 kt North America 6% 386 kt Western Europe 20% 717 kt China 13% 537 kt Others 1,106 kt Total 6% 80 kt North America 5% 247 kt Western Europe 19% 593 kt China 5% 186 kt Others (1) Source: PPPC World 20 January/2015 December/2014 (2) Source: PPPC World 20 Sep/2015 Paper Capacity increase in China Total FORECAST REALIZED PREVIOUS FORECAST LATEST FORECAST PREVIOUS LATEST Woodfree ,016 1,016 Tissue 1,390 1, ,365 2,117 2,643 Cartonboard 2,100 1, ,480 2,056 Total 3,746 2,860 1,867 2,855 5,613 5,715 Source: Fibria and Independent Consultants 18
19 19 Nominal Chinese GDP vs. Eucalyptus Shipments to China (Sept-09 = base 100) China GDP Eucalyptus Shipments Source: Bloomberg and PPPC.
20 Commodities Differentiation China GDP breakdown 8% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 44% 47% 48% 48% 48% 48% 48% 46% 47% 45% 45% 49% 49% 48% 49% 49% 50% 50% 52% 51% 53% 53% 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Consumption Investment Net Exports China commodity demand - basis 100 Corn Soybeans Wheat Crude oil Iron ore Sugar BHKP A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Source: Itaú Macroeconomic Department and PPPC Oct/
21 Technical Age and Scale in the Market Pulp Industry Further closures are expected due to lack of adequate investments in the industry 21 Hardwood (BHKP) Market Pulp Softwood (BSKP) Market Pulp PM Capacity, 1000 t/a Weighted average technical age 12.3 years STRONG PM Capacity, 1000 t/a Weighted average technical age 21 years STRONG Aracruz Weighted average capacity 1,277,000 t/a Jacareí Três Lagoas Old Town Ence Huelva Veracel Weighted average capacity 527,000 t/a 0 30 WEAK 20 Technical Age, years WEAK Technical Age, years 5 0 North American Pulp Mills Other Pulp Mills Closures Grade Switch On & Off More than 7.7 million tons of capacity above 25 years and with annual capacity below 500,000 t/y.
22 Capacity closures DO happen Closures of Hardwood Capacity Worldwide (000 ton) ,260-1,180-1, E (1) Source: PPPC and Fibria (1) As of January : -40kt Old Town (USA), -90kt Woodland (USA), -55kt Verso Wickliffe (USA), -120 April Kerinci (Indonesia) 2017: -275kt Arauco Valdivia (Chile) 22
23 BHKP prices - CIF Europe (US$/ton) Capacity (000 ton) 23 Gross capacity addition should not be counted as the only factor influencing pulp price volatility. (1) List Price bottoming at US$650/t in 2011 and US$724/t in APP South Sumatra (2) Horizonte II 2,0 1, APP Hainan Fray Bentos Mucuri Veracel Nueva Aldea Rizhao Três Lagoas Maranhão Eldorado Montes del Plata Guaíba II Klabin 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Valdivia Santa Fé Kerinci PL3 APP Guangxi Chenming Zhanjiang Oji Nantong 0,8 0, , , ,0 (1) Source: Hawkins Wright, Poyry and Fibria Analysis. Pulp price estimates according to Hawkins Wright (July/15), Brian McClay (Sept./15) and RISI (May/15) (2) Partially integrated production.
24 Dec-99 May-00 Oct-00 Mar-01 Aug-01 Jan-02 Jun-02 Nov-02 Apr-03 Sep-03 Feb-04 Jul-04 Dec-04 May-05 Oct-05 Mar-06 Aug-06 Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Jul-14 Dec-14 May-15 Oct-15 In the last 15 years, pulp volatility has been just 8%...why? 160 BHKP - FOEX Europe (base 100) CPI (base 100) Market price closer to producer s marginal cost The marginal cost producers are based in Europe and North America Flattish industry cost curve Higher flexibility to adjust supply side during imbalanced market Lower dependency on Asian market (~25%) compared to hard commodities (70%+) Market end users are linked to consumer goods, such as tissue Incipient pulp price futures market and low liquidity Source: Bloomberg January 5, 2016
25 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Lowest volatility among commodities = January 1, Iron Ore Soy Bean Crude Oil Sugar BHKP - FOEX Europe Exchange Rate (R$/US$) Low volatility of hardwood pulp price, even though new capacities have come on stream during the period. Source: Bloomberg January 5,
26 The only commodity with lower volatility than FX Historical Volatility of Commodities (US$) 35% 35% 34% 27% 26% 24% 24% 24% 16% 14% 6% WTI Crude Oil Sugar Nickel Copper Soy Iron Ore LME Metals Ibovespa Cattle FX FOEX PIX BHKP Since
27 Financial and Operational Highlights 27
28 Each 5% depreciation of the Real increases EBITDA by around R$403m (11%) and FCF by R$482 m (45%) Exchange Rate Average (R$/US$) E 4.13 (1) Fibria net pulp price (US$/t) Fibria net pulp price (R$/t) (2) 2,317 1,179 1,067 1,133 1,311 1,344 1,725 51% 56% EBITDA Margin 29% 40% 1,488 34% 36% 1,173 1,153 40% 39% 1,295 1,185 1, EBITDA (US$ million) LTM 3Q15 3Q15 (1) According to Focus Report (Brazilian Central Bank December 29, 2015) I (2) 2016 market consensus 28
29 Free Cash Flow US$ million (1) Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 EBITDA Margin 39% 34% 33% 28% 30% 37% 37% 41% 39% 39% 41% 42% 41% 35% 35% 45% 50% 50% 56% Average FX (1) Before expansion capex 29
30 30 Free Cash Flow (1) LTM 3Q15 US$ million (4) 1,535 (517) (115) (124) (24) (49) Adjusted EBITDA Capex (ex-h2 project) Net Interest Working Capital Taxes Others(3) FCF (ex-h2 project)(2) Capex H2 FCF (1) Not considering dividend payment of R$149 million. (2) Not considering capex related to the Horizonte 2 project. (3) Includes other financial results. (4) Converted by LTM average FX R$/US$3.01
31 ROE and ROIC (US$) ROE = Adjusted EBIT (1) / Equity before IAS 41 (2) ROIC = Adjusted EBIT (3) / Invested Capital before IAS 41 (2) 31.7% 29.4% 23.5% 23.3% 1.0% 4.7% 7.7% 6.1% 3.6% 7.2% 10.2% 8.6% LTM 3Q15 Annualized 3Q LTM 3Q15 Annualized 3Q15 Average FX Average 1.67 FX (1) Adjusted EBITDA CAPEX Net Interest Taxes (2) International accounting standards for biological assets. (3) Adjusted EBITDA CAPEX Taxes 31
32 32 Cash Production Cost (US$/t) 3Q (70) (13) 187 (17) 170 3Q14 Inflation FX Lower energy price Maintenance downtimes Non recurring wood Non recurring input consumption Non recurring fixed costs Total Management initiatives Cash cost 3Q15 Total non recurring 3Q15 recurring cash cost Management initiatives gains mostly offset the inflation impact
33 Cash Production Cost in dollars saw a decrease over the past 6 years Fibria Cash Production Cost (1) (US$/ton) Consistently controlling the production cash cost 2009 (2) 2010 (2) LTM 3Q15 (1) Constant Currency (2) Excludes Conpacel 33
34 34 Net Results (US$ million) 3Q (622) 145 (102) (59) ZCC swap (27) current (10) deffered (170) (137) 203 Adjusted EBITDA 3T15 Exchange variation on debt Other exchange variation MtM hedge Hedge settlement Net Interest Deprec., amortiz. and depletion Income Taxes Others (1) Net Income (Loss) 3T15 (1) Includes non-recurring expenses/non-cash and other financial income/expenses.
35 Capital Structure: Fibria has achieved the lowest leverage ratio among its Latin American peers Net Debt/EBITDA (x) (1) Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 Fibria Suzano Klabin CMPC Arauco Eldorado Fibria Arauco CMPC Klabin Suzano S&P BBB-/Stable BBB-/Stable BBB-/Stable BBB-/Negative BB+/Stable Moody s Baa3/Stable Baa3/Stable Baa3/Negative - Ba2+/Stable Fitch BBB-/Stable BBB/Stable BBB+/Stable BBB-/Stable BB/Positive (1) Fibria s historical data in BRL. 35
36 (1) G-spread on December 29, One of the best performances among Brazilian corporate issuers (1) Fibria BRF Globopar Embraer Klabin Suzano Brazil Braskem Vale Gerdau
37 37 Investment Grade by all rating agencies Interest expense, leverage and average cost of debt in US$ Historical G-spread (bps) (1) LTM 5.2 3Q15 Leverage 4.6 Cost of debt Interest Expense (US$ million) Fibria 2020 Fibria 2021 Fibria (1) BBB- BBB- Baa3 Obtaining of Investment Grade from the three rating agencies
38 Horizonte 2 Project 38
39 39 What is the importance of growth for Fibria? Wider fixed costs dilution Competitiveness Cost curve position improvement Greater bargaining power with suppliers Follow the growth of strategic customers Commercial positioning Developing new customers Distribution to new geographic markets Efficiency and competitiveness gains in logistics Higher quality in customer service Long-term growth potential Greater ability to capture new expansion market windows Strong M&A position
40 40 Why expand Três Lagoas? ESTIMATED BHKP CAPACITY RANKING 2017 (000T) Brownfield Project, synergies with current operations Modern plant, prepared for potential expansion Availability of wood and low average distance from forest to mill Forest based on the optionality concept and prioritizing lease and partnership models Additional energy surplus of 120 MWh Start-up: 4Q2017 Capacity: 1.75 million tons Fibria 7,950 CMPC RGE/APRIL Suzano APP Eldorado UPM Stora Enso Arauco Cenibra ENCE Altri IP Marubeni Mitsubishi Oji Mondi Nippon Paper Verso Resolute Georgia-Pacific Portucel Soporcel Lwart Pulp Mill Holding Domtar Klabin Others Current Capacity New Capacity New Capacity Klabin Agreement New Capacity Horizonte II Project Source: Poyry and Fibria Analysis (as of May 2015)
41 41 Pulp sales destination: Fibria growing where the market grows 37% 42% 19% 24% 36% 25% 4% 9% Total sales volume distribution after H2 start up (2) Current net revenue distribution (1) (1) Considers 3Q15 last twelve months. (2) Includes Klabin s sales volume
42 42 Schedule Purchase of the industrial plants Beginning of forest machinery deliveries Beginning of infrastructure and purchase of the TGs Beginning of construction Beginning of assembly Beginning of harvest Startup Negotiations with concession holders and Port of Santos tendering Definition of outbound logistics formats Initial hiring of harvest workers L1 interconnections during maintenance downtime Utilities clearance and commissioning Hiring of operational team 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q
43 Forestry base 43
44 44 H2 Project will have the forest base ready for the start-up Forestry base required: H1: 120,000 ha H2: 174,000 ha Total: 294,000 ha
45 Logistics 45
46 Forestry Logistics Low average distance from forest to mill 46 FOREST MILL 95 km H1 + H2 consolidated
47 Outbound logistics Fibria has logistical alternatives on a competitive basis 47 Data Collection / Preliminary Analysis Ports Highways Railroads Waterways Analysis Logistics Costs Opex - Rates Capex Qualitative Modal conditions Mato Grosso Goiás Brasilia Mato Grosso do Sul
48 Financials 48
49 Even more competitive cash production cost w/ H2 BHKP (US$/t) BHKP capacity (000 t) 1,825 1,460 1,035 2,200 4,645 3,470 14,045 Total: 28,680 BHKP (US$/t) Working capital release: US$10/t Interest Capex Income Tax SG&A China USA Canada Iberia Chile/Uruguay Indonesia Brazil Fibria 3Q15 Fibria w/ H2 Cash Cost (US$/t) Delivery CIF Europe Source: Hawkins Wright (Price Forecast October 2015) and Fibria s 3Q15 Earnings Release - FX considered by the consultant at R$/US$3.86. H2 cash cost was estimated according to weighted average cost, after mill balance, converted at R$3.86. Includes energy sales. 49
50 Expansion CAPEX update From US$2.5 bi to US$2.2 bi 50 CAPEX (US$ billion) Timetable 60% 2% 26% % % 33% 72% 72% 3% 3% 1% Original Revised BRL EUR USD and others and thereafter FX and inflation partially offset by the negotiation with suppliers
51 Funding Cost and maturity: 3Q15 H2 3Q15 + H2 Average Cost (US$ p.a) 3.3% 2.0% 2.8% Average Maturity (years) Amortization Schedule 3Q15 Proforma with TLS II US$ million 1,236 revolver 494 1,111 Cash (2) Liquidity BNDES Bond PPE NCE ACC/ACE Capex H (1) Debt FX 3Q15: / FX considering new funding for the TLS II Project: 3.90 (2) Cash on hands: US$ 994 million 51
52 Rating agencies understand that the Project will not jeopardize Fibria s credit metrics 52 We expect Fibria to continue benefiting from higher operating cash flows which would allow it to enlarge its Três Lagoas industrial complex while keeping its debt at reasonable levels for a low investment-grade rating Fitch s base case, which assumes that the company builds a new pulp mill (Três Lagoas II) starting in 2015 and uses net pulp prices of between USD575 and USD675 per ton during the construction period, results in net leverage reaching 3.5x (1). Net leverage would quickly decline to around 2.5x (1) once the mill becomes operational in the second half of 2017 (1) According to rating agency methodology
53 53 Project financials at a glance UNIT R$ US$ Pulp production/year k tons 1,850 1,850 Expansion capex (1) $ billion Expansion capex (1) $/t 4,702 1,189 Sustaining capex (2) $/t Cash cost (3) $/t Energy surplus MWh (1) Includes chemical leasing and investments in order to increase capacity to 1,850 kt/year. (2) Estimated sustaining capex in perpetuity considering capacity of 1,850 kt/year. (3) Estimated weighted average cost, after mill balance. Includes energy sales.
54 We don t think that such competitiveness is easily replicable, since the scenario is becoming more complex Land Public funding constraints Infrastructure/Logistics Governance standards Certified wood availability Environmental requirements Cost of capital Credit rating Although some potential brownfields are listed, there are significant challenges.
55 Final Remarks 55
56 56 Fibria s structural fundamentals drive the leading return metrics Less volatile commodity in US$ Costs in BRL The highest forest productivity worldwide Operational excellence Unique customer base with steady sales volumes through long-term contracts Low cost of debt Strong corporate governance High ROE/ROIC in the long-term
57 * Considering dividend of R$149 million paid in May and the proposed payment of R$ 2 billion on Market Cap. on September 30 th, Extraordinary Dividend of R$2 billion approved DRIVERS Strong cash generation Low average cost of debt Cash position above minimum cash Low leverage level Funding status of Horizonte 2 project Capital discipline TIMELINE: Record date: Nov 30th Payment dates: BM&FBovespa: Dec. 9, NYSE: Dec. 16, Dividend yield* = 7%
58 58 Fibria is able to create value for its shareholders with capital discipline FREE CASH FLOW BIO-ENERGY AND INDUSTRY CONSOLIDATION? PULP Growth with discipline Best portfolio of projects DIVIDENDS OTHER OPPORTUNITIES Complementary to pulp Portocel Land and forest WITHOUT JEOPARDIZING CREDIT METRICS
59 Backup 59
60 60 Structural Competitiveness 1. Third-party wood reduction NPV: US$0.4 billion 2. Forestry operations productivity NPV: US$0.6 billion 3. Industrial NPV: US$0.1 billion Total : US$1.1 billion
61 1. Third-party wood reduction Wood supply recovering to normal condition Peaking in 2016; Returning to 2012 s levels by the end of 2017; NPV of R$1.4 billion from peak to normalized level. 100% Third-party wood decrease will benefit opex andcapex 80% 60% 40% Estimated level for % 0%
62 1. Third-party wood reduction Losango Most part of the standing wood was already paid Despite the higher forest to mill distance, the wood from Losango is less expensive than the available wood from around Espírito Santo and Bahia States Positive impact over industrial costs due to better productivity 11
63 2. Forestry operations productivity Structural change improving competitiveness CLASSIFYING THE FOREST BASE BY CATEGORIES 45% 40% 35% 36% 40% 33% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 10% 10% 20% 20% 15% 10% 6% 0% 01 - Diamond 02 - Gold 03 - Silver 04 - Bronze 05 - Lead Current effective area Future effective area The distribution costs by classes helps us to apply resources in order to optimize wood production 12
64 2. Forestry operations productivity Identifying opportunities based on these combinations Possible Restrictions Possible Impediments Declivity 0: Higher than 35 1: Btw 24 and 35 2: Btw 0 and 24 Conservation Areas 0: Within CAs (1) 1: Within EPA (2) and EBZ (3) 2: Out of EPAs and EBZ Municipal Restrictions 0: Total restrictions 1: Partial restrictions 2: No restrictions EPA Altitude 0: Higher than 1800m 1: Lower than 1800m Urban Zones 0: Urban Zones 1: Outside urban areas Remnants of native vegetation 0: Remnants areas 1: Outside remnants areas Possible combinations X 0, 1 and 2, removed; (1) Conservation Areas (2) Envionmental Protection Areas (3) Environmental Buffer Zones 4 e 8, high potential 13
65 2. Forestry operations productivity Cost and Capex KPI s were also included in this geo-model Silviculture Harvest Roads Transportation 14
66 2. Forestry operations productivity Harvest Mixed Harvest Mechanization (Hilly areas) PROJECT DESCRIPTION (JACAREÍ UNIT) Mixed cutting operation with high demand for MO and high risk to safety; Harvest limitations in areas above 24 degrees; Increase annual capacity to harvest in areas up to 35 degrees, previously "locked up" by harvesting capacity of manual staff; NPV: R$71 million Capex: R$5 million Operational since Aug
67 2. Forestry operations productivity Transportation PIFF Timber transportation Woodchip transportation PROJECT DESCRIPTION (ARACRUZ, JACAREÍ AND TRÊS LAGOAS UNITS) Freight cost reduction; Increased load box for timber/woodchip transport Use of lightweight steel; Operational risk reduction (flipping); Investment: R$33 million NPV: R$139 million Startup: 2015 /
68 2. Forestry operations productivity Transportation Maritime Wood Shipping Project PROJECT DESCRIPTION (ARACRUZ UNIT) Capex and Opex reduction; Capex: R$38 million Increase in cargo handling due to increase in NPV: R$95 million stack height volume Startup: Jan/2017 Reduction in heavy truck road traffic 17
69 2. Structural change in forestry operations productivity Structural cost reduction of R$170 million per year (Capex + Opex) in 2020; NPV of approximately R$2 billion Seek opportunities for purchase / lease of more attractive areas, divest from unattractive land/forest, as well as the implementation of technologies that will lead us to the structural cost NPV Expected Curve 100% 90% 100% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 0% 10%
70 3. Industrial: maintenance downtimes schedule change Mills Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 Aracruz A Aracruz B No maintenance downtime No maintenance downtime Aracruz C Jacareí No maintenance downtime Três Lagoas No maintenance downtime Veracel No maintenance downtime Regulatory Standard 13 (Boiler and Pressure Vessel Inspection) extended the maximum period between recovery boiler inspections from 12 to 15 months. Fibria was the first company to use the extended period benefit NPV: R$385 million 19
71 3. Industrial: Biological Sludge Dryer Biological Sludge Dryness Process Operational Flow Conditioning and biological sludge burn Sludge drying and burn in biomass boiler Effluent+Sludge Aeration 00Tank Biological Sludge Tank Sludge Dryer Biomass 00 Boiler Biomass Pile PROJECT DESCRIPTION (JACAREÍ UNIT) Variable cost reduction associated with the disposal of sludge operations in external landfill Capex: R$18 million NPV: R$100 million Startup: Dec./
72 72 Fibria s tax structure TAX BENEFITS (R$) Fiscal - annual adjustment Tax loss carry forward and tax credits Benefit Amount Maturity Benefit Amount Goodwill (Aracruz acquisition) Annual tax deduction: US$30 million (tax) Remaining Balance Sept/15: US$ billion (base) 2018 Tax loss carryforward Balance up to set. 15: US$93 million (base) Balance set/2015: - PIS/COFINS: US$161 million Forestry Capex in Mato Grosso do Sul state 2015 tax deduction related to depletion: US$7.7 million Undefined Accumulated tax credits - Withholding tax (IR and CSLL): R$205 million - Befiex: US$98 million - Reintegra: US$20 million TAX PAYMENT (cash basis) US$ 9 million US$ 2 million US$ 8 million US$ 14 million US$ 12 million US$ 16 million
73 604 (1) Capex Fibria, except H2 Project (2) US$ million 516 (1) Management Initiatives External Factors 2015 Guidance FX Inflation Capex reduction 2015 Guidance Update Trucks Purchase (2nd phase) Higher nonrecurring sustaining investments Higher investments in other modernization projects Higher third part wood participation FX Inflation 2016 Guidance (1) Converted by 3Q15 end of period FX - USD/BRL 3.97 (2) Subject to board approval
74 74 Capex Fibria, except H2 Project US$ million (1) Guidance Modernization Industrial Maintenance / Forest equipment Losango Higher Spending on turbogenerator overhaul in 2016 Wood Purchase Structural Capex Estructural Forestry operations Wood Cost productivity Reduction increase Structural Capex (1) Converted by 3Q15 end of period FX - USD/BRL 3.97 (2) Subject to board approval
75 75 Capex Fibria, except H2 Project US$ million (1) 406 (1) Structural Capex (as shown last year) Inflation and Δ FX Structural Capex Estructural Wood Cost Reduction Structural Capex (1) Converted by 3Q15 end of period FX - USD/BRL 3.97
76 Leadership Position Industry Outlook (1) Fiber Consumption 406 million t Recycled Fiber 238 million t 59% 41% Pulp 168 million t Mechanical 30 million t 18% 82% Chemical 138 million t 59% Integrated Mills 82 million t 41% Market Pulp 56 million t 46% 54% Softwood/Other 26 million t Hardwood 30 million t 33% 67% Acacia/Other 10 million t Eucalyptus 20 million t 74% Other Eucalyptus Pulp producers: 15 million t 26% (1) Fiber Consumption, Recycled Fiber and Pulp: RISI Market Pulp, Hardwood and Eucalyptus: PPPC Global 100 Report December
77 Global Market Pulp Demand Hardwood demand will continue to increase at a faster pace than Softwood Hardwood (BHKP) vs. Softwood (BSKP) (000 ton) Demand growth rate CAGR: Hardwood: +2.5% Softwood: +0.8% 000 ton Growth Growth Hardwood % 36% Eucalyptus % 52% Softwood % 16% Source: PPPC report (Sept. 2015) Hardwood Softwood Market Pulp % 27% Source: PPPC reports. Excludes Sulphite and UKP market pulp (Sept./15) Paper Production Runnability with BHKP Source: RISI conference, August
78 Benefiting From China s Growth China s Hardwood Imports of BHKP by Country (1) ( 000s t) BHKP Total Latin America (1) 9M2014 9M Latin America is the leading exporter of BHKP to China, accounting to approximately 54% of China's total imports in 9M Indonesia Others(2) USA Canada Western Europe (1) includes South Africa and New Zealand. (2) Includes China, Japan, Malaysia, Russia, Thailand and Vietnam. (million t) World Tissue Consumption, (3) LTM Growth Rate +4.2% (kg/person/year) N.America W.Europe E.Europe L.America Middle East Japan China Asia FE Oceania Africa 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Between 2005 and 2014, the Chinese market share of eucalyptus shipments increased by 19 p.p. (total market pulp: + p.p.) 10% 10% China's Share of Market Pulp (2) 12% 14% 21% 17% 22% (million t) 23% 23% 23% Eucalyptus Hardwood Total % Compared to the global Market Pulp (1) PPPC Pulp China Flash Report September 2015 (2) PPPC W20. Coverage for chemical market pulp is 80% of world capacity (3) RISI Per Capita Consumption of Tissue by World Region (3) (Kg/capita/year) N. West America Europe 12 Japan Oceania 7 East Europe 6 5 LatAm China Africa 1 78
79 Global Paper Consumption CAGR Developed Markets: + 1.7% Emerging Markets : + 6.0% 117,611 CAGR Developed Markets: - 4.0% Emerging Markets : + 4.1% 114,507 85,291 P&W Consumption (000 tons) (1) Developed Markets Emerging Markets CAGR Developed Markets: + 2.4% Emerging Markets : + 6.9% 26,877 CAGR Developed Markets: + 1.4% Emerging Markets : + 6.7% 37,474 15,548 Tissue Consumption (000 tons) (1) Developed Markets Emerging Markets Source: RISI 79
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