LatAm Commodities Conference - Itaú BBA October 2014
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1 LatAm Commodities Conference - Itaú BBA October 2014
2 2 Disclaimer The information contained in this presentation may include statements which constitute forward-looking statements, within the meaning of Section 27A of the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Such forward-looking statements involve a certain degree of risk and uncertainty with respect to business, financial, trend, strategy and other forecasts, and are based on assumptions, data or methods that, although considered reasonable by the company at the time, may turn out to be incorrect or imprecise, or may not be possible to realize. The company gives no assurance that expectations disclosed in this presentation will be confirmed. Prospective investors are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties, and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements, due to a variety of factors, including, but not limited to, the risks of international business and other risks referred to in the company s filings with the CVM and SEC. The company does not undertake, and specifically disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, which speak only for the date on which they are made.
3 1 Company 2 Pulp 3 Financial 4 Final Overview and Paper Market and Operational Highlights Remarks Agenda 3
4 Company Overview 4
5 A Winning Player Superior Asset Combination Main Figures 2Q14 LTM Pulp capacity million tons 5,300 Net revenues R$ billion 7.1 Total Forest Base (1) thousand hectares 962 Três Lagoas Belmonte Veracel Caravelas Portocel Aracruz Jacareí Santos Planted area (1) thousand hectares 555 Net Debt R$ billion 6.7 Net Debt/EBITDA (in Dollars) (2) X 2.4 Net Debt/EBITDA (in Reais) X 2.3 Port Terminal Pulp Unit Source: Fibria (1) Including 50% of Veracel, excluding forest partnership areas and forest bases linked to the sales of Losango and forest assets in Southern Bahia State. (2) For covenants purposes, the Net Debt/EBITDA ratio is calculated in Dollars. 5
6 Fibria s Units Industrial Capacity * Veracel is a joint venture between Fibria (50%) and Stora Enso (50%) and the total capacity is 1,120 thousand ton/year 6
7 7 Fibria s Commercial Strategy Sales Mix by End Use - Fibria Highlights Region - 2Q14 Europe 42% Other 9% N. America 22% Asia 27% Tissue 49% Sales Mix by Region - Fibria End Use - 2Q14 Specialty 18% Printing & Writing 33% 11% 9% 11% 10% 10% 10% 11% 10% 9% 10% 8% 8% 8% 9% 9% 22% 25% 14% 20% 31% 28% 20% 23% 25% 26% 21% 26% 26% 26% 27% Worldwide presence Strong global customer base Long-term relationships Focus on customers with stable business Customized pulp products and services Sound forestry and industrial R&D Focus on less volatile end-use markets such as tissue Efficient logistics set up Low dependence on volatile markets such as China Low credit risk 100% certified pulp (FSC and PEFC/Cerflor) 37% 46% 46% 41% 35% 44% 43% 41% 36% 42% 43% 35% 36% 46% 42% 30% 20% 29% 29% 24% 18% 26% 26% 30% 22% 28% 31% 30% 19% 22% 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 North America Europe Asia Other
8 Shareholder Structure and Corporate Governance Votorantim Industrial S.A. (1) 29.42% BNDES Participações (1) 30.38% Free Float (2) 40.20% Fiscal Council General Meeting Board of Directors 20% independent members Role of CEO and chairman is split Finance Committee Statutory Audit Committee Innovation Committee Sustainability Committee Personnel and Remuneration Committee Listed on Novo Mercado, highest CG level at BM&FBovespa: Only 1 class of shares 100% voting rights 100% tag along rights (Brazilian corporate law establishes 80%) Board of Directors with minimum 20% independent members Financial Statements in International Standards IFRS Adoption of Arbitration Chamber SEC Registered ADR Level III program (1) Controlling group (2) Free Float 40.14% + Treasury 0.06% Policies approved by the Board of Directors: Indebtedness and Liquidity Market Risk Management Risk Management Corporate Governance Related Parties Transactions Anti-Corruption Information Disclosure Securities Trading 8
9 Pulp and Paper Market 9
10 10 Today, according to public information, there will be a 10% increase of the pulp market capacity between 2014 and 2016 SOFTWOOD (1) 25.5 MT + HARDWOOD (1) = 31.1 MT MARKET PULP (1) 56.6 MT (2) : New capacities: 0.7 mt Announced Closures: (0.4) mt Net: 0.3 mt (3) : New capacities: 6.0 mt Announced Closures: (1.0) mt Net: 5.0 mt : New capacities: 6.7 mt Announced Closures: (1.4) mt Net: 5.3 mt (1) Source: PPPC Special Research Note May 2014 does not include Sulphite and UKP (2) Projects included: Paper Excellence (70kt); UPM Kymi (170kt); Klabin (200kt); Sodra Värö (275kt) Closures: Birla AV Terrace Bay (350kt) (3) Projects included: Maranhão (1.5mt); Montes del Plata (1.3 mt); Oji Nantong (700kt); Eldorado (200kt); CMPC Guaíba II (1.3 mt); Klabin Ortigueira (1.0mt) Closures: April Rizhao (130kt); Arauco Valdivia (300kt); Old Town (200kt); Ence Huelva (400 kt).
11 Global Market Pulp Demand Hardwood demand will continue to increase at a faster pace than Softwood Hardwood (BHKP) vs. Softwood (BSKP) (000 ton) Paper Production Runnability with BHKP CAGR: Hardwood: +2.8% Softwood: +0.7% Source: PPPC Hardwood Softwood Source: RISI conference, August Demand growth rate NBSK vs. BHKP - Prices (1) 000 ton Growth Growth Hardwood % 34% Eucalyptus % 63% Spread Sep/14: US$ 206 Avg. Spread: US$ Softwood % 15% Market Pulp Spread Avg. Spread BHKP NBSK Source: PPPC. Excludes Sulphite and UKP market pulp. (1) Source: FOEX Average spread in the last 5 years. 11
12 USD/Adt, 2013 cost level Supply structural changes puts pressure on the industry MARKET PULP CAPACITY RANKING 2014 (000T) MAIN PROJECTS Fibria APRIL Arauco Suzano Georgia Pacific CMPC UPM-Kymmene Stora Enso Paper Excellence Metsa Group Weyerhaeuser IP Ilim Sodra Mercer Domtar Resolute Forest Eldorado ENCE Canfor Project Country Capacity Timing Fiber Status CMPC Guaíba II Brazil 1.3 Mt 2Q2015 BEKP Confirmed Klabin Paraná Brazil 1.5 Mt 2Q2016 BEKP/ BSKP/Fluff Confirmed APP South Sumatra Indonesia 2.0 Mt 1Q2017 BHKP Confirmed Fibria Três Lagoas II Brazil 1.75 Mt - BEKP Unconfirmed COST CURVE EVOLUTION Cost position of marginal producer Bleached Softwood Kraft Pulp (BSKP) Bleached Hardwood Kraft Pulp (BHKP) Unbleached Kraft Pulp (UKP) Mechanical Pulp (MP) Cumulative Capacity Million t/a Source: Hawkins Wright, Poyry and Fibria Analysis (as of Aug. 2014). 12
13 BHKP prices - cif Europe (US$/ton) Greenfield capacity (000 ton) Gross capacity addition should not be counted as the only factor influencing pulp price volatility. (1) List Price bottoming at US$650/t in 2011 and US$724/t in APP South Sumatra (2) 2, ,8 800 Rizhao Maranhão 1, APP Hainan Fray Bentos Três Lagoas Eldorado Montes del Plata Guaíba II 1,4 1,2 500 Veracel Nueva Aldea Mucuri Klabin 1,0 400 Valdivia Santa Fé Kerinci PL3 Chenming Zhanjiang 0,8 300 APP Guangxi 0,6 200 Oji Nantong 0, , ,0 (1) Source: Hawkins Wright, Poyry and Fibria Analysis (2) Partially integrated. 13
14 Technical Age and Scale in the Market Pulp Industry Further closures are expected due to lack of adequate investments in the industry 14 Hardwood (BHKP) Market Pulp Softwood (BSKP) Market Pulp PM Capacity, 1000 t/a Weighted average technical age 12.3 years STRONG PM Capacity, 1000 t/a Weighted average technical age 21 years STRONG Aracruz Weighted average capacity 1,277,000 t/a Jacareí Três Lagoas Veracel Weighted average capacity 527,000 t/a 0 30 WEAK Technical Age, years WEAK Technical Age, years 5 0 North American Pulp Mills Other Pulp Mills Closures Grade Switch On & Off
15 15 Capacity closures DO happen Closures of Hardwood Capacity Worldwide (000 ton) ,180-1,085-1,030-1, E as of Sep14 Source: PPPC and Fibria
16 16 Lowest Volatility Among Commodities Commodities Historical Volatility (US$) (1) 38% 32% 30% 26% 25% 21% 26% 7% Sugar Iron Ore WTI Crude Oil Soy LME Metals Ibovespa Cattle FOEX PIX BHKP (1) Since 2009.
17 17 and when other expenses are plugged, we see no one but Fibria is generating positive free cash flow in the industry Total Cash Cost of BHKP delivered to Europe (US$/t) Capacity (k tons): , ,005 2,410 1, ,095 3,680 4,165 7,450 5,300 = 31, Interest Q14 net price: US$ 562/t Interest Capex SG&A Positive Working Capital: US$44/t Cash Cost (US$/t) Delivery (US$/t) Source: Hawkins Wright (Outlook for Market Pulp, July 2014) Fibria s 2Q14 considering a FX of R$/US$2.23. Gray bar include cash expenses as Interest, CAPEX, SG&A and Taxes.
18 18 Global Market BEKP Demand Shipments of Eucalyptus Pulp (1) 2013 vs M2014 vs. 8M2013 9% 23% 12% +674 kt 6% +185 kt +844 kt -37 kt -1% Total North America Western Europe China +944 kt Total 2% +24 kt North America 5% +212 kt Western Europe 26% +524 kt China 7% +185 kt Other (1) Source: PPPC World 20 December/2013 (1) Source: PPPC World 20 August/2014 Paper Capacity increase in China Ktons E 2015E Total P&W (woodfree) ,111 Tissue 1,029 1, ,331 Cartonboard 2,128 1, ,958 Total 3,542 3,631 1,227 8,400
19 Benefiting From China s Growth China s Hardwood Imports of BHKP by Country (1) ( 000s t) BHKP Total Latin America 7M2013 7M * includes Russia, China, Thailand and New Zealand Latin America is the leading exporter of BHKP to China, accounting to approximately 45% of China's total imports in 7M Other* Indonesia USA Canada Western Europe (million t) World Tissue Consumption, (3) LTM Growth Rate +4.2% (kg/person/year) N.America W.Europe E.Europe L.America Middle East Japan China Asia FE Oceania Africa China's Share of Market Pulp (2) Between 2005 and 2013, the Chinese market share of eucalyptus shipments increased by 14 p.p. (total market pulp: + p.p.) (In percentage) Eucalyptus Hardwood Total (1) PPPC Pulp China (2) PPPC W20. Coverage for chemical market pulp is 80% of world capacity (3) RISI 23 Per Capita Consumption of Tissue by World Region (3) (Kg/capita/year) N. West America Europe 12 Japan Oceania 7 East Europe 6 5 LatAm China Africa 1 19
20 Financial and Operational Highlights 20
21 No exposure eletricity shortage risks, in spite of which the company has benefited from the sale of its surplus energy (27) 4 2Q13 Maintenance downtimes Wood FX Maintenance Utilities Others 2Q % Utilities results boosted by energy sales. (2Q14: R$ 36/t I 1Q14: R$ 18/t I 2Q13: R$ 14/t)
22 FX and Pulp Price explain 80% of Fibria s EBITDA Margin 2.00 Exchange Rate Average (R$/US$) Average Price FOEX (US$/t) EBITDA Margin 29% 40% 34% 36% 40% 40% EBITDA (R$ million) 2,526 1,964 2,253 2,796 2,857 1, (1) 2010 (1) 2011 (1) Q14 LTM (1) Excludes Conpacel 22
23 23 Fibria delivers one of the highest EBITDA/t and FCF/t of the industry Free cash flow generation (1) - 2Q14 LTM (R$ Million) 2,857 (1,409) (386) 111 (20) (28) 1,125 Adjusted EBITDA Capex Interest (paid/received) Working Capital Taxes Others Free Cash Flow ¹ Does not include asset sales, expenses on bonds repurchase, expenses related to the REFIS on subsidiaries profits abroad and tax credits from the BEFIEX program. Free Cash Flow per ton - 2Q14 LTM (R$/ton) 543 (268) (73) 21 (4) (5) 214 Adjusted EBITDA Capex Interest (paid/received) Working Capital Taxes Others Free Cash Flow
24 Capital Structure: Fibria has achieved the lowest leverage ratio among its Latin American peers Net Debt/EBITDA (x) (1) T11 1T12 2T12 3T12 4T12 1T13 2T13 3T13 4T13 1T14 2T Fibria Suzano Klabin CMPC Arauco Eldorado Fibria Arauco¹ CMPC Klabin Suzano S&P BB+/Positive BBB-/Stable BBB-/Stable BBB-/Stable BB/Negative Moody s Ba1/Positive Baa3/Negative Baa3/Negative - Ba2/Stable Fitch BBB-/Stable BBB/Stable BBB+/Stable BBB-/Stable BB/Stable (1) Fibria s historical data in BRL. (2) Market consensus. 24
25 Continuation of the liability management plan, also focusing on improving maturities 25 December 2013 Cost of debt: 4.6% Average maturity: 52 months 1, , , , ,020 1, , Land Deal Bond buyback: Fibria 2020, 2021 and VOTO IV Fibria 2024 issuance Bank loans renegotiations Foreign Currency Local Currency June 2014 Cost of debt: 3.8% Average maturity: 52 months 1,355 1,302 1,068 1, , Lower cost of debt Smoother debt amortization schedule NPV of all initiatives: US$270 million Foreign Currency Local Currency
26 But the initiatives have not finished. There are certain ongoing negotiations thar will improve Fibria s debt profile even further 26 Average Term From: 52 months to: 54 months Average Cost From: 3.8% to: 3.7% Revolver Cash R$1 billion Liquidity Others ACC/ACE ECN BNDES Bond Pre-payment
27 A consistent and disciplined approach focused on reducing debt and its cost 27 Gross Debt (million) x Leverage Interest (million) x Cost of Debt , ,606 8,457 3, Jun/ Q14LTM Debt (R$) Debt (US$) Leverage (x) Interest (R$) Interest (US$) Cost of Debt (%) Interest Reduction Free Cash Flow Increase Cost of Debt Reduction This dynamics creates a virtuous cycle
28 28 New issuance better priced than full IG issuers As of Sep 01, 2014 Rating Maturity Volume T-Spread Coupon Fibria Ba1 / BBB- / BB US$ 600 MM 275 bps 5.25% Braskem Baa3/BBB-/BBB US$ 500 MM 340 bps 6.45% Petrobras Baa1/BBB/BBB 2024 US$ 2.5 bi 350 bps 6.28% BNDES Baa2/BBB-/ 2024 US$ 500 MM 362 bps 6.32% Klabin BBB-/BBB US$ 500 MM 269 bps 5.25% Odebrecht Baa3/BBB/BBB 2029 US$ 500 MM 263 bps 5.25% Secondary Market Rating Maturity Volume T-Spread Yield Fibria Ba1 / BBB- / BB US$ 600 MM 277 bps 5.158% Braskem Baa3/BBB-/BBB US$ 500 MM 300 bps 5.353% Klabin BBB-/BBB US$ 500 MM 287 bps 5.289% Odebrecht Baa3/BBB-/BBB 2029 US$ 500 MM 251 bps 5.103% Petrobras Baa1/BBB/BBB 2024 US$ 2.5 bi 254 bps 4.908% Gerdau Baa3/BBB-/BBB US$ 750 MM 260 bps 4.873%
29 Cash Production Cost saw a compounded average growth rate of 4% since 2009 Fibria Cash Production Cost (1) (R$/ton) CAGR: + 4% Consistently controlling the production cash cost at a level below the inflation pace YTD (1) Excludes Conpacel. 29
30 30 Maintenance CAPEX (R$ Million) 1,520 1,416 1,287 1,078 Approx. 18% increase Land Deal: Forestry Partnership Non recurring wood purchase Inflation FX Rate Modernization Others 2014E
31 31 Fibria has the simplest and most transparent call in the industry Negative Neutral Positive Pulp supply Closures/conversions Inefficient capacities in China Demand Mature markets China Pulp price Brazil GDP Energy crisis FX Capex inflation Cost inflation Rating Corporate Governance
32 Final Remarks 32
33 33 Fibria is seeking value creation for its shareholders with capital discipline PULP - Growth with discipline - Best portfolio of projects INDUSTRY CONSOLIDATION? Potential Growth Prospects BIO-ENERGY - Complementary to pulp - Ensyn OTHER OPPORTUNITIES - Portocel - Land and forest
34 34 The maturity of synergies captured since Fibria s creation improved its operating indicators PRODUCTION VOLUME (000 t) BEST PRACTICES AND OPERATING STABILITY +14% CASH COST (R$/ton) -21% ,054 5,184 5,299 5, , * 2010* Q14 LTM SG&A (R$ million) STRUCTURE AND PROCESS SIMPLIFICATION 2009* 2010* Q14 LTM Historical Value Inflation Effect** EBITDA (R$ million) - EBITDA MARGIN (%) -28% % 1,522 40% 2,526 34% 36% 1,964 2,253 40% 40% 2, * 2010* Q14 LTM Historical Value Inflation Effect** 2009* 2010* Q14 LTM * Excludes Conpacel ** IPCA index considered to calculate the inflation effect
35 35 Key Highlights Sound credit profile, with decreasing leverage ratios Market leader with a highly profitable operation and cash cost below industry average Highly experienced and qualified management team Highly recognized and awarded by industry specialists
36 Back up 36
37 2Q14 Results Pulp Production and Sales ( 000 t) Net Revenue (R$ million) 1,291 1,269 1,277 1,188 1,271 1,334 1,669 1,642 1,694 2Q13 1Q14 2Q14 Production Sales Cash Production Cost (R$/t) 2Q13 1Q14 2Q14 EBITDA (R$ million) and EBITDA Margin (%) % 41% 35% Q13 1Q14 2Q14 Cash cost ex-maintenance downtimes Cash Cost 2Q13 1Q14 2Q14 37
38 38 Indebtedness Net Debt (Million) Net Debt/EBITDA (R$) Net Debt/EBITDA (US$) Total Debt and Interest Expenses (Million) Interest (R$) Jun/13 Mar/14 Jun/14 R$ US$ Debt Amortization Schedule (R$ million) Jun/13 Mar/14 Jun/14 R$ US$ Average Tenor (months) and Cost of US$ Debt (%p.a.) 3, ,467 (revolver) ,776 (cash) 1, ,355 1, , Liquidity Pre-payment BNDES ECN ACC/ACE Voto IV Bonds Jun/13 Mar/14 Jun/14
39 39 Fibria s tax structure Fiscal - annual adjustment Tax benefits (R$) Tax loss carry forward and tax credits Benefit Amount Maturity Goodwill (Aracruz acquisition) Forestry Capex in Mato Grosso do Sul state Annual tax deduction: ~R$89 million (tax) Remaining Balance Jun/14: R$1,228 million (base) 2014 s tax deduction related to depletion: R$ 12,4 million (tax) 2018 Undefined Benefit Tax loss carryforward Accumulated tax credits Amount Balance up to Jun./14: R$385 million (base) Balance Jun./2014: -PIS/COFINS: R$535 million - withholding tax (IR and CSLL): R$242 million - Befiex : R$ 897,6 million Actual tax payment (cash basis) R$7 million R$16 million R$4 million R$15 million R$31 million
40 jan/02 jun/02 nov/02 abr/03 set/03 fev/04 jul/04 dez/04 mai/05 out/05 mar/06 ago/06 jan/07 jun/07 nov/07 abr/08 set/08 fev/09 jul/09 dez/09 mai/10 out/10 mar/11 ago/11 jan/12 jun/12 nov/12 abr/13 set/13 fev/14 jul/14 40 Real Exchange rate hasn t reflected domestic/foreign inflation diferential over time (Base 100 = Jan 2002) % IPCA BRL/USD
41 Liquidity Events: delivered as promised Net Debt/EBITDA (x) R$ Dec/11 Mar/12 Jun/12 Sep/12 Dec/12 Mar/13 Jun/13 Sep/13 Dec/13 Mar/14 Jun/14 Sources (R$ Million) Uses (R$ Million) 1,268 5,715 Available REFIS 1,403 1, Bond prepayment , Bond prepayment 1,361 EQUITY OFFERING FOREST SALE 2012 (1) FCF 2012 LAND DEAL FCF 2013 TOTAL 1, Bond prepayment (1) Losango and forestry assets and land in the south of Bahia State 41
42 Due to productivity gains in its forests, Fibria had the opportunity to explore this new ownership model 42 FIBRIA S GAINS IN IMACEL DUE TO INVESTMENTS IN BIOTECHNOLOGY (TONS OF PULP/HA/YEAR) MAI* Pulp: (adt/ha/year) Conservative assumption 2012 field trials = *MAI: Mean annual increment Actions: Genetic improvement Excellence in forestry management Superior industrial efficiency
43 43 Leadership position Industry Outlook (1) Fiber Consumption 403 million t 58% 42% Recycled Fiber 234 million t Pulp 169 million t 18% 82% Mechanical 31 million t Chemical 139 million t 60% Integrated Mills 84 million t 40% Market Pulp 56 million t 49% 51% Softwood/Other 27 million t Hardwood 29 million t 35% 65% Acacia/Other 10 million t Eucalyptus 19 million t 71% Other Eucalyptus Pulp producers: 13 million t 29% (1) Fiber Consumption, Recycled Fiber and Pulp: RISI Market Pulp, Hardwood and Eucalyptus: PPPC Special Research Note - May 2014
44 Global Paper Consumption CAGR Developed Markets: + 1.7% Emerging Markets : + 6.0% 117,611 CAGR Developed Markets: - 4.0% Emerging Markets : + 4.1% 114,507 85,291 P&W Consumption (000 tons) (1) Developed Markets Emerging Markets CAGR Developed Markets: + 2.4% Emerging Markets : + 6.9% 26,877 CAGR Developed Markets: + 1.4% Emerging Markets : + 6.7% 37,474 15,548 Tissue Consumption (000 tons) (1) Developed Markets Emerging Markets Source: RISI 44
45 45 China: Internal Consumption and Urbanization China s private consumption vs. exports (CNY trillion and annual % change) (1) Chinese Urbanization Driver of Long-Term Growth (UN Population Projections, Millions) (2) Shift from exports to private consumption; Positive effects on households income and rising standards of living. Sources: (1) The Economist. (2) RISI China Pulp Market Study.
46 Acknowledgments: Governance, Transparency, Profitability & Sustainability Valor 1000 Company of the year, among all industries, according to Valor Econômico. International Recognition by Corporate Governance Report Fibria is one of the 5 Brazilian companies nominees to the Best Corporate Governance Award from London Institutional Investor Latam Ranking - P&P Sector Fibria was ranked for the fifth consecutive year (2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014). XVII ANEFAC-FIPECAFI - SERASA EXPERIAN Prize Fibria is among the most transparent public companies in Brazil, recognized for the quality of its 2012 financial statements. The Best Companies to the Shareholders Prize of Capital Aberto Magazine Fibria was elected as 2 nd place. The prize highlights the business profitability, share profitability, liquidity, corporate governance and sustainability. Época Negócios 360º Fibria was elected as 1st place in the pulp & paper sector in the corporate governance and future's vision categories CDP Brasil 100 Climate Change 2013 Report Fibria was selected as one of the 10 best companies in transparency. The only one in the pulp & paper sector. DJSI World and DJSI Emerging Markets RobecoSAM - Sustainability Investing Magazine Selected to Dow Jones World and Emerging Markets Sustainability Indices for 2014/15 of Forestry Resources and Paper sector. Fibria is the only Latin America company selected by RobecoSAM (responsible for DJSI) as one of the 10 worldwide leaders in SRI magazine s The 10 Game Changers Changing the industry through sustainability. 46
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