Commodity Spotlight Energy

Transcription

1 Commodity Research Commodity Spotlight Commodity Spotlight Energy Oil market remains oversupplied for longer 1 Juli 21 After trading sideways for several weeks, oil prices got under pressure recently, dropping to their lowest levels since April. After all, the rise in OPEC supply to a three-year high is keeping the oil market in oversupply. For the oversupply to be reduced, a drop in non-opec supply and, in particular, falling US oil production is required. So far, however, no decrease in US oil production has been forthcoming. Should the nuclear negotiations produce an agreement with Iran, additional Iranian oil could reach the market from Q and thus make it even more difficult to reduce the oversupply, especially since there are certain downside risks on the demand side. We therefore lower our Brent price forecast to USD6 per barrel by year-end. Next year, too, the increase in oil prices is likely to fall short of our previous expectations. In recent weeks, the price recovery on oil markets has run out of steam. Following a strong rise in spring, oil prices initially moved sideways within a tight trading range since May (Brent: USD61-66 per barrel, WTI: USD7-62 per barrel). Recently, prices even got under massive pressure. Both Brent and WTI left their respective trading range to the downside in early July, trading at their lowest levels since April (chart 1). After all, the oil market remains in considerable oversupply and there is growing concern that this oversupply will shrink much more slowly than expected. OPEC s still expansionary production policy has offset higher demand and thus kept the oversupply from falling. Reuters and Bloomberg surveys show that OPEC once again expanded its oil production considerably in June. Reuters reports an increase by 3 thousand to a three-year high of 31.6 million barrels per day (chart 13, page ). According to Bloomberg, OPEC supply even rose by 7 thousand to 32.1 million barrels per day. This was particularly due to Iraq and Saudi Arabia as both countries increased their output to a record level in June. Saudi Arabia repeatedly stressed that it was going to expand its oil output in accordance with higher international demand. To some extent, however, this is certainly also due to higher domestic demand during the summer months when more oil is needed to generate electricity for the use of air-conditioning systems. Insofar, the increase in Saudi Arabian oil output was certainly also aimed at keeping its own oil exports at a constant level. By contrast, the production increase in Iraq is due to the opening of a new export terminal in Basra in southern Iraq. In its wake, Iraqi oil exports also climbed to a record level in June. Commerzbank Forecasts Q3 1 Q 1 Q1 16 Brent Blend WTI Diesel Gasoline (9) Jet fuel 67 7 Natural gas Coal (API #2) EUA ( per t) Phelix ( per MWh) Source: Commerzbank Research Monthly change % Annual change % Coal Gasoline Henry Hub Gasoil Diesel Jet fuel Brent WTI So urce: Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research CHART 1: in USD per barrel Oil prices under selling pressure recently Jan-1 Feb-1 Mar-1 Apr-1 May-1 Jun-1 Jul-1 Brent WTI For important disclosure information please see last page. research.commerzbank.com / Bloomberg: CBKR / Research APP available Head of Commodity Research Eugen Weinberg eugen.weinberg@commerzbank.com Analyst Carsten Fritsch carsten.fritsch@commerzbank.com Analyst Barbara Lambrecht barbara.lambrecht@commerzbank.com Analyst Michaela Kuhl michaela.kuhl@commerzbank.com Analyst Daniel Briesemann daniel.briesemann@commerzbank.com

2 Oversupply currently amounts to 1. to 2. million barrels per day Positive surprise from oil demand But this has been offset by higher OPEC production Oversupply to be reduced only through lower non- OPEC supply So far, we expected the oversupply to be reduced continually in the second half of the year and to disappear almost entirely by year-end. This was based on the assumption that demand would gain traction and non-opec supply would lose momentum. At present, the oversupply amounts to 1. to 2. million barrels per day based on current OPEC output relative to the estimated call on OPEC for the second half of the year. It is doubtful, however, whether the noteworthy decline in oversupply we have expected so far will indeed materialise in coming months. Indeed, oil demand performed much stronger than expected in the first half of the year. As a result, the International Energy Agency continually revised its estimates for this year s rise in global oil demand upwards in recent months. After expecting an increase of 9 thousand barrels per day at the start of the year, it now forecasts a rise of 1. million barrels per day. Moreover, this is twice as much as last year s increase and the strongest annual gain since 21 when demand recovered massively from the previous year s slump (chart 2). US oil demand benefits from the labour market recovery and low gasoline prices. As a result, US gasoline demand is almost back at the 27 record level. Chinese oil demand benefits from the build-up of state reserves and new processing capacities coming on stream. The demand outlook is brightening even in Europe. All three major neighbouring regions are thus contributing to stronger oil demand. However, OPEC also upped its production further in recent months, thus offsetting the rise in demand. If OPEC were to stick to its own production target of 3 million barrels per day, the oil market would in fact be largely balanced in the second half. But instead, OPEC produces up to 2 million barrels per day above target. Moreover, the oversupply is unlikely to be reduced via stronger demand as Saudi Arabia has announced a further increase in output in this case. This has at least been indicated by the largest OPEC producer. Obviously, the world s largest oil exporter's aim is not to lose any market shares to other suppliers. The oversupply will therefore have to be reduced largely through lower non-opec supply. In the second half, a considerable deceleration in non-opec supply indeed appears to be on the cards. According to the IEA, non-opec supply will be only thousand barrels per day above last year s level in the third quarter. For the fourth quarter, the IEA is even looking for a decline of thousand barrels per day compared to last year. This is also due to the expected fall in US oil production as a result of the slump in drilling activity since the start of the year (chart 3). US crude oil production should have reached its peak in April and according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is set to fall by, barrels per day by spring 216. Whether this will be sufficient to restore the market equilibrium will largely depend on further OPEC policy though. The oil market will remain oversupplied if OPEC maintains its expansionary production policy. In its latest monthly report, the IEA warned that oil market rebalancing could last well into 216. CHART 2: Increase in oil demand much stronger than expected at the start of the year Rise in global oil demand in million barrels per day until 21 actual IEA figures (grey), from July 21 on IEA forecasts for 21 (yellow) Jul 1 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Nov 1 Dec 1 Jan 1 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun 1 Jul 1 CHART 3: US oil production likely to react to slump in drilling activity with a delay Active oil rigs, US crude oil production in million barrels per day, shifted backwards by six months US oil rig count, left US crude oil production, right Source: IEA, Commerzbank Research Source: Baker Hughes, EIA, Commerzbank Research 2 1 Juli 21

3 Additional Iranian supply in the case of nuclear agreement Oversupply could then remain for longer Additional downside risk to oil prices emanating from China A successful completion of nuclear negotiations with Iran and resulting easing or lifting of sanctions there would mean additional Iranian crude oil reaching the market. At present, Iranian production and exports are around 1 million barrels per day lower than pre-212 when the sanctions entered into force (chart ). Issues still subject to debate are the timeframe for the easing of sanctions and monitoring of Iran s compliance with the agreed points. As the negotiations have been prolonged several times, the deadline for US President Obama to submit the deal to US Congress has expired. As a result, Congress will have 6 rather than 3 days to review the agreement. In other words, the easing of sanctions is likely to be delayed by another month. We consider a gradual lift of sanctions to be the most likely scenario. Anyway, Iran is unlikely to be able to increase its oil production quickly following the lift of sanctions as production and transportation facilities have to be put back into operation after being closed for more than three years. It is therefore realistic to assume an increase in Iranian oil supply by a maximum of thousand barrels per day until year-end and by another thousand barrels per day next year. If OPEC fails to offset this additional supply by cuts elsewhere, the oversupply on the global oil market will be here to stay for longer. The question is where such cuts should come from. In any case, Saudi Arabia is unlikely to be willing to make room for its archenemy Iran. The political circumstances in the country permitting, Iraq, too, is more likely to expand rather than cut its oil output in coming months. Near-term, the still considerable oversupply and the marked increase in risk aversion harbours downside risks for oil prices. A fall below USD per barrel in Brent and below USD per barrel in WTI is therefore conceivable. The escalation of the debt crisis in Greece is less relevant, in our view. Even in the case of a Grexit, the impact on the oil market should be limited. Unless we see contagion effects in other euro zone countries, the consequences for oil demand should be negligible. Most of the investors wishing to sell their oil investments on the back of the uncertainty relating to Greece are likely to have done this by now. The greater downside risk emanates from China. The Chinese equity market has lost more than 3% within one month (chart ), which is likely adversely affect private household incomes. Moreover, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers has just lowered its growth forecast for vehicle sales this year sharply from 7% to 3%, which will no doubt have a dampening effect on gasoline demand. Reduced oil price forecast for end-21 and 216 CHART : Significant drop in Iranian crude oil production due to sanctions in million barrels per day We therefore lower our price forecast for Brent to USD6 per barrel by year-end (previously: USD7 per barrel). We stick to our view that thanks to a drop in non-opec supply and growing demand the oversupply will be reduced over the course of the year, albeit less pronounced than expected so far. For next year, we lower our average annual forecast to USD73 per barrel (previouly: USD7 per barrel). In 216, in particular, additional Iranian oil supply should become visible and stand in the way of a stronger price recovery. CHART : Chinese equity market collapse might dampen oil consumption CSI 3 stock market index Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-1 Jan Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 1 Juli 21 3

4 At a glance TABLE 1: Our Forecasts Forecasts Yearly Average 9-Jul 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 Q1 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 Q Brent Blend ($/bbl) WTI ($/bbl) Diesel ($/t) Gasoline (9 ARA) ($/t) Jet Fuel ($/t) Natural Gas HH ($/mmbtu) Coal (API #2) ($/t) EUA ( /ton) Source: Commerzbank Research, Bloomberg TABLE 2: Inventories and imports Net change % change 1 month 1 year vs. -year-ø year vs. -year-ø Comment US inventories (mm barrels) Crude oil of which: Cushing Gasoline Distillates Natural gas (bn cubic feet) ) ARA inventories (' tons) Gasoil Gasoline Imports and production (mm bpd) US crude oil imports US crude oil production Crude oil imports China Refinery activity (mm bpd) Processing USA Processing China US crude oil stocks have fallen slightly, but remain at a very high level US natgas stocks much higher than last year ARA Gasoil stocks close to record level US oil production at -year high, Chinese crude oil imports fall sharply from record level Crude oil processing in the US and in China near record level Source: Commerzbank Research, US Energy Information Administration, PJK International, Chinese Customs, National Bureau of Statistics of China TABLE 3: Historic prices of energy commodities Latest 1 Week 1 Month ytd year ago Brent Blend ($/bbl) WTI ($/bbl) Diesel ($/t) Gasoline (9 ARA) ($/t) Jet Fuel ($/t) Natural Gas HH ($/mmbtu) Coal (API #2) ($/t) EUA ( /t) Phelix /mwh Source: Commerzbank Research, Bloomberg TABLE : Upcoming events % change 1 / 22 / 29 July USA US EIA oil inventory data 16 / 23 / 3 July USA US EIA gas inventory data 17 / 2 / 31 July USA US oil and gas rig count 1Q13 11 Aug / 9 Sep USA / INT EIA Short Term Energy Outlook 11 Aug / 1 Sep INT OPEC Oil Market Report 12 Aug / 11 Sep INT IEA Oil Market Report December INT OPEC meeting in Vienna, Austria Source: EIA, IEA, OPEC, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research, Bloomberg 2Q13 3Q13 Q13 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 Q1 1 Juli 21

5 CHART 6: Crude Oil - Forward Curves in US$ per barrel Brent WTI 1 M 7 M 13 M 19 M 2 M 31 M 37 M 3 M CHART : WTI: managed money net-long positions ' contracts Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-1 Jul-1 spec. net long positions, ls Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research WTI ($/barrel), rs CHART 1: Crude oil: US inventories in mm barrel year average +/- 1 stdev 21 3 Source: EIA, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research CHART 12: US oil rig count and US crude oil production (in mm bpd) US-Ölbohrungen, links Source: Baker Hughes, EIA, Commerzbank Research 1 US-Rohölproduktion, rechts CHART 7: Price spread WTI and Brent Blend in US$/bbl Source: Commerzbank Research CHART 9: Brent: managed money net-long positions 3 ' contracts Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-1 Jul-1 spec. net long positions, ls Source: ICE, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research CHART 11: US crude oil imports in mm bpd Brent ($/barrel), rs Jahresdurch. +/- 1 Standardabw Jan Mrz Mai Jul Sep Nov Source: EIA, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research CHART 13: OPEC oil production in mm bpd current IEA estimate for call on OPEC in Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, IEA, Commerzbank Research 1 Juli 21

6 CHART 1: Gasoline: managed money net-long positions 1 ' contracts Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-1 Jul-1 spec. net long positions, ls Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research Gasoline RBOB ($/gallon), rs CHART 16: Gasoline: US inventories in mm barrel CHART 1: Heating oil: non-commercials' net-long positions ' contracts Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-1 Jul-1 spec. net long positions, ls Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research Heating oil ($/gallon), rs CHART 17: Distillates: US inventories in mm barrel year average +/- 1 stdev year average +/- 1 stdev Source: EIA, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research CHART 1: US crude oil processing in mm bpd year average +/- 1 stdev 13. Source: EIA, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research CHART 2: China: crude oil processed and imports 11 million barrels per day Crude oil processed, ls Crude oil imports, rs Source: China NBS, Chinese Customs, Commerzbank Research Source: EIA, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research CHART 19: US net imports of total petroleum products in million bpd net imports -1-2 net exports Source: EIA, Commerzbank Research CHART 21: China: Diesel imports and gasoil crackspread 1 ' tons USD/barrel 6 net importer net exporter net imports Diesel, ls CrackSpread (Gasoil/Brent), rs Source: Chinese Customs, Commerzbank Research Juli 21

7 CHART 22: Price spread products to Brent in $ per barrel Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-1 Jan-1 jet fuel diesel gasoline (9) CHART 2: ARA Gasoline inventories in ' tons CHART 23: Gasoil: managed money net-long positions 12 ' contracts Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-1 Jul-1 speculative net long positions, ls ICE gasoil ($/ton), rs Source: ICE, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research CHART 2: ARA Gasoil inventories in million tons Min / Max of the last years Min / Max of the last years Source: PJK International, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research CHART 26: Nat. gas: managed money net-long positions (Futures and swaps) ' contracts -1 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-1 spec. net long posit., ls Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research HenryHub ($/MMBtu), rs CHART 2: Natural gas: Storage utilisation in Europe in % Source: GIE, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research -year corridor Source: PJK International, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research CHART 27: Natural gas: US storage in bn cubic feet Jahreskorridor 1 21 Jan Mrz Mai Jul Sep Nov Source: EIA, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research CHART 29: International natural gas prices in comparison in EUR per MWh Henry Hub NBP Japan LNG import price German border price Source: BAFA, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research 1 Juli 21 7

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