Commodities Monthly Review
|
|
- Trevor Chase
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Commodities Monthly Review March 9, 2016 We forecast higher oil and lower iron ore prices Iron-ore prices rose to USD 60/ton from USD 40/ton, but fundamentals for the sector still point to the downside, and our scenario assumes a drop to USD 42/ton by 3Q16. We lowered our price forecasts for corn and wheat, after incorporating high carryover stocks and the outlook of stable planted area in the next crop. We forecast a recovery in oil prices to USD /bbl by YE16, as the market finds a new equilibrium by 2H16, with a possible partial pass-through to prices of basic metals (via refining and transportation costs). The Itaú Commodity Index has risen 6.9% since the end of January, driven by higher metal (18%) and oilrelated (9.2%) prices. The ICI-agricultural fell 1.2% over the same period. Metal prices advanced 17.6% year-to-date, with the improvement in investor sentiment and the replenishment of iron ore inventories in China. The latter is a temporary boost. Investor sentiment improved as fears of a global recession calmed. Metal prices positive year-to-date Itaú Commodities Index* (2010 = 100) ICI Agricultural (rhs) ICI Energy ICI Metals 25 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Source: Itaú and Bloomberg Oil prices rose to USD 40/bbl, despite excess supply in the short term. In our view, this resilience was ensured by news related to (some) coordination between Russia and Saudi Arabia (which we doubt that will lead to an actual cut in supply) and signals of lower production guidance by several companies. This situation reinforces our assumption that lower U.S. output will offset rising exports from Iran, rebalancing the global market by mid We expect Brent crude prices to climb to USD /bbl by YE16. The rebound may increase metal prices through higher refining and transportation costs. Recovery in the ICI to be driven by oil Itaú Commodity Index* (2010=100) Previous Current 45 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Source: IEA and Itaú On the other hand, we expect iron ore prices to decline, erasing recent gains. Macro and microeconomic factors drove prices to USD 60/ton recently, from USD 37/ton in mid-january. However, the global oversupply will likely get larger in 2016, with Please refer to the last page of this report for important disclosures, analyst and additional information. Itaú Unibanco or its subsidiaries may do or seek to do business with companies covered in this research report. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should not consider this report as the single factor in making their investment decision.
2 stable global output (higher production in Australia offsetting capacity cuts and reductions due to environmental issues in China) and lower global demand. We thus maintain our YE16 forecast at USD 42/ton, or almost 20% lower than current levels. Lower price forecasts for corn and wheat. Agricultural prices fell slightly in February, due to favorable weather conditions in producing regions and signs that U.S. farmers will not reduce the planted area in the next crop year. We cut our price forecasts for corn and wheat by nearly 5%, as we acknowledged a combination of high carryover stocks and strong supply in the next crop year. Our scenario for YE16 (higher oil prices, lower iron ore prices, small price increases for metals and agricultural products) implies a 10.7% hike in the Itaú Commodity Index (ICI) from current levels. Oil: End of oversupply in 2016, even without a reaction from OPEC Oil prices rose to USD 40/bbl, despite excess supply in the short term. Weekly inventory changes registered by the U.S. Department of Energy show the oversupply. In our view, such resilience was ensured by news related to deals between Russia and OPEC, and indications of lower production by several companies throughout Oil: Recent rebound far from offsetting 2015 slide Prices correspond to the Brent ICE Futures first future contract OPEC/Russia coordination will not prompt the adjustment. Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to freeze production at January levels, and Qatar and Venezuela committed to following the agreement. The deal will probably materialize and reduces the risk of further production increases by these countries, but will not deter countries that are likely to expand output (Iran and Iraq). Conflicts between Saudi Arabia and Iran represent headwinds to a broader agreement. The adjustment is taking place in the rest of the world, particularly in the U.S. Global oil supply is adjusting and the main reasons that led to oversupply are being corrected. In particular, investments in shale oil in the U.S. plummeted and onshore output already fell to 7.63 mbpd in December from 8.24 mbpd last May. We anticipate a partial recovery in prices in 2016, as oversupply vanishes in the middle of the year. According to our estimates, the global balance will transition from a seasonally-adjusted deficit of 0.2 mbpd in 3Q16 from a surplus of 2.2 mbpd in 4Q15 even without coordinated reaction by OPEC. This transition will take place as the decline in U.S. output offsets rising exports from Iran after the end of sanctions, without significant shocks on demand or on the remaining supply. We assume that i) demand will follow a path that is consistent with global growth and with price drops seen in the past two years, ii) the other OPEC members will sustain current production levels and iii) other producers in the world will remain on the trend seen in recent years, as production does not yet react to lower prices (and investments). We forecast Brent crude prices at USD /bbl at YE16. Agriculture: Waiting for the next crop in the Northern Hemisphere Price International prices (first due date) for corn and wheat have fallen since late January, while soybean prices have been relatively stable Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Source: Bloomberg. Page 2
3 Corn and wheat prices drop, while soybean prices are stable Corn (Mar-16) Wheat (Mar-16) Soybean (Mar-16) (rhs) next crop is less favorable for soybeans than the average of the past three years (see chart). We lowered our YE16 price forecasts for corn to USD 3./bushel from USD 4.0, after incorporating expectations for strong supply next year. We lowered our forecast for wheat to USD 5.15/bushel from USD 5.3, for the sake of consistency with the new scenario for corn Less incentive to transfer planted area to soybeans from corn in the U.S CBOT futures price Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 Source: Itaú and Bloomberg Weather forecasts indicate that 2Q16 will be marked by an increasingly weak El Niño. In Brazil, this outlook is favorable for the winter corn crop, but may hinder the beginning of sugarcane processing. There are no clear signs for the rest of the year yet. The focus is changing to the 2016/17 crop. Overall, the outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat is still for large global carryover stocks into the 2016/17 crop. No signs of reaction to low prices by U.S. farmers. The market is beginning to anticipate figures in the report that address planting intentions in the U.S., to be released in late March. So far, there is no expectation of a reduction in the planted area, although prices are below total production costs. This is because the share of the cost related to fair compensation for the land does not affect decisions of whether or not to plant. Migration of planted area to soybeans from corn in the U.S. should be less intense in the 2016/17 crop. The ratio between soybean and corn contracts for the Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Source: Bloomberg. Soybean jan-17/ Corn dez-16 Ratio Average We forecast soybean prices at USD 8.8/bushel at YE16. Artur Manoel Passos Ivan Lasaro Page 3
4 Forecasts: Itaú Commodity Index (ICI) * - by Group * Monthly average prices Agriculture Metals Energy 35 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Source: Itaú Commodities CRB Index Itaú Commodity Index (ICI)* Agricultural Soybean - usd/bu Corn - usd/bu Energy Brent - usd/bbl Metals Iron Ore - usd/mt Copper - usd/mt ICI - Inflation ** F 2017F Current Current Previous Current Previous yoy - % avg growth - % a/a - % avg growth - % a/a - % avg growth - % yoy - % avg growth - % yoy - % avg growth - % a/a - % avg growth - % yoy - % 39 avg growth - % a/a - % avg growth - % yoy - % avg growth - % yoy - % avg growth - % yoy - % avg growth - % Macro Research Itaú Ilan Goldfajn Chief Economist Tel: Click here to visit our digital research library. Page 4
5 Relevant Information 1. This report has been prepared and issued by the Macro Research Department of Banco Itaú Unibanco S.A. ( Itaú Unibanco ). This report is not a product of the Equity Research Department of Itaú Unibanco or Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A. and should not be construed as a research report ( relatório de análise ) for the purposes of the article 1 of the CVM Instruction NR. 483, dated July 06, This report aims at providing macroeconomics information, and does not constitute, and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The information herein is believed to be reliable as of the date on which this report was issued and has been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable. Itaú Unibanco Group does not make any express or implied representation or warranty as to the completeness, reliability or accuracy of such information, nor does this report intend to be a complete statement or summary of the markets or developments referred to herein. Opinions, estimates, and projections expressed herein constitute the current judgment of the analyst responsible for the substance of this report as of the date on which it was issued and are, therefore, subject to change without notice. Itaú Unibanco Group has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report and inform the reader accordingly. 3. The analyst responsible for the production of this report, whose name is highlighted in bold, hereby certifies that the views expressed herein accurately and exclusively reflect his or her personal views and opinions and were prepared independently and autonomously, including from Itaú Unibanco, Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A. and other group companies. 4. This report may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person, in whole or in part, for any purpose, without the prior written consent of Itaú Unibanco. Additional information on the financial instruments discussed in this report is available upon request. Itaú Unibanco and/or any other group companies is not, and will not be liable for any investment decisions (or otherwise) based on the information provided herein. 1. Additional Note to reports distributed in: (i) U.K. and Europe: This material has been prepared by Itau BBA International plc (IBBAI) for information purposes only. The sole purpose of this material is to provide information only, and it does not constitute or should be construed as a proposal or request to enter into any financial instrument or to participate in any specific business strategy. The financial instruments discussed in this material may not be suitable for all investors, and are directed solely at Eligible Counterparties and Professionals as defined by the Financial Conduct Authority. This material does not take into consideration the objectives, financial situation or specific needs of any particular client. Clients must obtain financial, legal, accounting, economic, credit and market advice on an individual basis, based on their personal characteristics and objectives, prior to making any decision based on the information contained herein. By accessing the material, you confirm that you are aware of the laws in your jurisdiction relating to the provision and sale of financial service products. You acknowledge that this material contains proprietary information and you agree to keep this information confidential. IBBA UK exempts itself from any liability for any losses, whether direct or indirect, which may arise from the use of this material, from its content and is under no obligation to update the information contained in this document. Additionally, you confirm that you understand the risks related to the financial instruments discussed in this material. Due to international regulations not all financial instruments/services may be available to all clients. You should be aware of and observe any such restrictions when considering a potential investment decision. The information contained herein has been obtained from internal and external sources and is believed to be reliable as of the date in which this material was issued, however IBBA UK does not make any representation or warranty as to the completeness, reliability or accuracy of information obtained by third parties or public sources. Additional information relative to the financial products discussed in this material is available upon request. Itau BBA International plc registered office is 20 th floor, 20 Primrose Street, London, United Kingdom, EC2A 2EW and is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority (FRN 5225) Itau BBA International plc Lisbon Branch is regulated by Banco de Portugal for the conduct of business. Itau BBA International plc has representative offices in France, Germany, Spain which are authorised to conduct limited activities and the business activities conducted are regulated by Banque de France, Bundesanstalt fur Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin), Banco de España respectively. For any queries please contact your relationship manager; (ii) U.S.A: Itau BBA USA Securities, Inc., a FINRA/SIPC member firm, is distributing this report and accepts responsibility for the content of this report. Any US investor receiving this report and wishing to effect any transaction in any security discussed herein should do so with Itau BBA USA Securities, Inc. at 767 Fifth Avenue, 50th Floor, New York, NY 10153; (iii) Asia: This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Itaú Asia Securities Limited, which is licensed in Hong Kong by the Securities and Futures Commission for Type 1 (dealing in securities) regulated activity. Itaú Asia Securities Limited accepts all regulatory responsibility for the content of this report. In Hong Kong, any investors wishing to purchase or otherwise deal in the securities covered in this report should contact Itaú Asia Securities Limited at 29th Floor, Two IFC, 8 Finance Street Central, Hong Kong; (iv) Japan: This report is distributed in Japan by Itaú Asia Securities Limited Tokyo Branch, Registration Number (FIEO) 2154, Director, Kanto Local Finance Bureau, Association: Japan Securities Dealers Association; (v) Middle East: This report is distributed by Itau Middle East Limited. Itau Middle East Limited is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority and is located at Suite 305, Level 3, Al Fattan Currency House, Dubai International Financial Centre, PO Box , Dubai, United Arab Emirates. This material is intended only for Professional Clients (as defined by the DFSA Conduct of Business module) no other persons should act upon it; (vi) Brazil: Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A., a subsidiary of Itaú Unibanco S.A authorized by the Central Bank of Brazil and approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission of Brazil, is distributing this report. If necessary, contact the Client Service Center: * (capital and metropolitan areas) or (other locations) during business hours, from 9 a.m. to 8 p.m., Brasilia time. If you wish to re-evaluate the suggested solution, after utilizing such channels, please call Itaú s Corporate Complaints Office: (on business days from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m., Brasilia time) or write to Caixa Postal , São Paulo-SP, CEP * Cost of a local call. Page 5
FX and Capital Markets
FX and Capital Markets Highlights of the Week November, 1 Domestic and international drivers pressure the BRL Brazilian currency underperformed its peers last week Improved data on the U.S. economy released
More informationBrazil: FX and Capital Markets Highlights of the Week
Brazil: FX and Capital Markets Highlights of the Week Monday, April 7, 1 Currency flow remains positive Brazilian currency maintained the good performance of the previous weeks. The real kept last week
More informationFX and Capital Markets
FX and Capital Markets Highlights of the Week May, 7 BRL outperforms peer currencies during the week BRL remains virtually stable in a week of emerging market currencies depreciation Falling commodity
More informationCommodities Monthly Review
Commodities Monthly Review Monday, December 02, 2013 Higher Iron Ore, Lower Crude Oil Prices We are raising our iron ore price forecasts due to stronger-than-expected demand and lower capacity from high-cost
More informationBrazil: FX and Capital Markets Highlights of the Week
Brazil: FX and Capital Markets Highlights of the Week Monday, May 11, 1 International Market Reopens for Brazilian Issuances Brazilian currency appreciated again last week. Notwithstanding some depreciation
More informationFX and Capital Markets
FX and Capital Markets Highlights of the Week June, 7 Weaker U.S. labor market boosts the BRL Brazilian currency rebounds Weaker figures on the U.S. labor market undermined the dollar against many currencies,
More informationCommodities Monthly Review
Commodities Monthly Review June 2015 Lower agricultural prices despite El Niño Aggregate commodity prices have declined 2.7% since the end of April. We expect a 5.3% increase from current levels by year-end,
More informationMacro Vision June 13, 2017
Macro Vision June 13, 2017 Country risk: how far can it reach? The global environment has been favorable to emerging markets, despite the recent drop in commodity prices. Better global growth and lower
More informationMacro Vision February 20, 2017
Macro Vision February 20, 2017 Finding MXN equilibrium in more challenging conditions Traditional exchange rate models indicate that the Mexican peso is undervalued. When presenting the results, we are
More informationIU-MCI measures the market conditions and is also a good leading indicator of economic growth in the country, as indicated by econometric exercises.
Macro Vision Tuesday, September, 5 Itaú Unibanco Market Conditions Index We present the Itaú Unibanco Market Conditions Index IU-MCI for the Brazilian economy. IU-MCI measures the market conditions and
More informationSector Insights. Autos. Sales Performance Remains Strong. Passenger Cars and Light Commercial Vehicles
Sector Insights Tuesday, May 28, 2013 Autos Sales Performance Remains Strong Following all-time-high sales of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in 2012, which were stimulated by government incentives,
More informationElectoral Polls: Datafolha
Macro Research Electoral Polls: Datafolha January -, 1 Datafolha Polls Summary 1. Voting Intentions First Round. Rejection Rates First Round. Voting Intentions by region. Voting Intentions by income. Voting
More informationPublic Sector Posts a Primary Deficit in May
Brazil Monday, June 30, 2014 Public Sector Posts a Primary Deficit in May Highlights The public sector posted a primary deficit of 11.0 billion real in May, the lowest for the month in the series started
More informationMacro Vision December 12, 2016
Macro Vision December 12, 2016 FAQs: Social Security Reform (PEC 287) The Brazilian government recently sent to Congress a Social Security reform proposal (PEC 287), the next step in the structural fiscal
More informationMacro Vision October 2, 2017
Macro Vision October 2, 2017 How the TLP can impact monetary policy In this report, we estimate that, when fully implemented, the new long-term interest rate (TLP) will allow a reduction of about 2.2 p.p.
More informationMacro Vision July 25, 2016
Macro Vision July 25, 2016 Is Brazil coming out of the recession? Leading indicators already show some positive signs for activity. Does this mean that the economy is already coming out of the recession?
More informationMacro Brazil July 21, 2017
Macro Brazil July 21, 2017 Copom Cockpit: The disinflationary scenario prevails The Brazilian Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) will meet again next week. Recent data pictures an environment
More informationBrazil Review. Depreciation of the Real Sharpens. The Brazilian Economy in March 2015
Brazil Review Wednesday, April 01, 2015 Depreciation of the Real Sharpens The Brazilian Economy in March 2015 GDP growth reached 0.1% in 2014. The latest confidence and employment indicators showed a further
More informationReal Estate The pace of sales continues to fall in the residential market. The number of launches came down, but inventories remain high.
Brazil Orange Book July 2015 No signs of stabilization With information through July 06, 2015 This report, published six times per year, summarizes anecdotal information on current economic conditions
More informationMarkets Stabilize, GDP Grows 2.3% in 2013
Brazil Review Monday, March 03, 2014 Markets Stabilize, GDP Grows 2.3% in 2013 The Brazilian economy in February 2014 Financial markets have stabilized, with appreciation of the Brazilian real and a decline
More informationMacro Vision December 16, 2016
Macro Vision December 16, 2016 Brazilian states in crisis: diagnosis and solutions The financial crisis in the Brazilian states is structural and was caused by growing expenses, uncoordinated and badly
More informationMacro Research Economic outlook
Macro Research Economic outlook Macroeconomic Research Itaú Unibanco December 2017 Roadmap Global Economy Solid global growth and higher interest rates in 2018 We expect global growth to continue at 3.8%
More informationWeakening Fiscal Performance in the 1Q14
Brazil Wednesday, April 30, 2014 Weakening Fiscal Performance in the 1Q14 Highlights The public sector s primary budget surplus was slightly better than expected in March (actual: 3.6 billion real; consensus:
More informationBrazil Review March 1, 2018
Brazil Review March 1, 2018 Central Bank near the end of the easing cycle The Brazilian economy in February 2018 The Central Bank reduced the benchmark Selic interest rate by 25 bps to 6.75% and signaled
More informationMacro Vision June 13, 2017
Macro Vision June 13, 2017 ECB: The tricky road to monetary policy normalization The Euro Area growth has improved, but inflation needs time to catch up. This scenario allows the ECB to recognize that
More informationDaniel Scioli leads the race to the presidency in October, but a runoff with Mauricio Macri in November is likely.
Latam in Depth Wednesday, September 09, 2015 ARGENTINA The day after Daniel Scioli leads the race to the presidency in October, but a runoff with Mauricio Macri in November is likely. The new administration
More informationMacro Research Economic outlook
Macro Research Economic outlook Macroeconomic Research Itaú Unibanco April 2018 Roadmap Global Economy Global growth on track, trade risk to fade Global growth has kept up a good pace, supported by easy
More informationScenario Review - Brazil
Scenario Review - Brazil August 8, 2017 Tougher fiscal challenges The tax hike is not enough to meet the primary budget target, which will still require extraordinary revenues and other compensatory measures
More informationMacro Research Economic outlook
Macro Research Economic outlook Macroeconomic Research Itaú Unibanco January 2018 Roadmap Global Economy Goldilocks scenario continues Global growth to remain at 3.8% in 2018. Growth in developed countries
More informationGlobal Monetary Policy Monitor
Global Monetary Policy Monitor Thursday, December, Brazil and Indonesia are the exception In November, 6 countries announced monetary policy decisions, six of them changing the monetary policy rate. The
More informationLabor Market, Production Costs and Prices Faced with low growth, the appetite for hiring is low, and more sectors are announcing forced vacations.
Brazil Orange Book Monday, July 07, 2014 Weak Consumption, Production falls With information through July 3, 2014 This report, published six times per year, summarizes anecdotal information on current
More informationScenario Review - Brazil
Scenario Review - Brazil June 9, 2017 A setback for reforms and a more challenging scenario A more turbulent political scene tends to delay reforms in Congress, making fiscal rebalancing more difficult
More informationMacro Research Economic outlook
Macro Research Economic outlook Macroeconomic Research Itaú Unibanco August 2017 Roadmap Global Economy Positive environment for emerging markets continues Global growth remains solid. We revised our GDP
More informationMacro Vision June 13, 2018
Macro Vision June 13, 2018 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia : Who has the greatest chances of winning? During the next few weeks, billions will direct their eyes toward Russia, the country hosting the 2018 World
More informationBrazil Review March 1, 2017
Brazil Review March 1, 2017 Congress debates Social Security Reform The Brazilian economy in February 2017 The Lower House Special Committee began its analysis of the Social Security Reform. The government
More informationBrazil Review June 1, 2018
Brazil Review June 1, 2018 Truckers strike on the spotlight The Brazilian economy in May 2018 The government approved several measures to end the truck driver s strike, with negative fiscal impact. GDP
More informationGlobal Monetary Policy Monitor
Global Monetary Policy Monitor January 017 Lower interest rates in South America In January, monetary policy decisions took place in 15 of the 33 countries that we monitor. On the tightening side, Turkey
More informationSector Insights. Brazil s Steel Industry: Still a Challenging Scenario Ahead
Sector Insights Monday, August 05, 2013 Brazil s Steel Industry: Still a Challenging Scenario Ahead Low global growth and high inventories are constraining international and domestic steel prices, limiting
More informationMacro Vision. Uncertain Recoupling Road for Latin America
Macro Vision Thursday, January 23, 2014 Uncertain Recoupling Road for Latin America From 2010 to 2013, emerging markets (EM) became the main engine of global growth, decoupling from advanced nations. Apparently,
More informationReleased last Friday, industrial production came at 3.57% year-on-year in August, weaker than market estimates (3.8) and higher than our call (2.5).
LatAm Talking Points LatAm Talking Points: Mexican Manufacturing Declines in August Talk of the Day Mexico Released last Friday, industrial production came at 3.57% year-on-year in August, weaker than
More informationMacro Vision August 30, 2017
Macro Vision August 30, 2017 Reforms could bring Brazil s potential GDP to 3.5% We have estimated Brazil s potential GDP based on the evolution of the economy since 1961. A fiscal adjustment that increases
More informationCommodities Monthly Review
Commodities Monthly Review Thursday, November 01, 2012 General Decline Fading global optimism and higher supply led to falling commodity prices. Most commodity prices fell in October, as optimism about
More informationRecovery Disappoints, Real Depreciates
Brazil Review Monday, December 03, 2012 Recovery Disappoints, Real Depreciates The Brazilian economy in November 2012 The economic recovery disappointed in the third quarter, increasing the doubts about
More informationThe peace deal advances, while the economy slows
Latam in Depth Monday, October, 1 The peace deal advances, while the economy slows The fall of oil prices are reducing economic growth in Colombia, weakening the exchange-rate and worsening external and
More informationScenario Review Chile
Scenario Review Chile September 4, 2017 Sluggish growth persists Activity in the first half of the year confirmed that the Chilean economy is still slumbering. Investment remains a drag on activity as
More informationGlobal Monetary Policy Monitor
Global Monetary Policy Monitor July 01 Less stimulus than expected In July, there were monetary-policy decisions in 0 of the 31 countries we monitor. Three countries increased stimulus, but only one, Malaysia,
More informationBrazil Review. Rising Concerns about Inflation. The Brazilian economy in February 2013
Brazil Review Friday, March 01, 2013 Rising Concerns about Inflation The Brazilian economy in February 2013 The Central Bank reinforced its message against inflation, saying that the interest rate is the
More informationGlobal Monetary Policy Monitor
Global Monetary Policy Monitor March 017 Interest rate paths diverge in Latin America In April, there were monetary policy decisions in 19 of the 33 countries we monitor. The number of central banks cutting
More informationBrazil Currency Perspectives
, on. November 29 Brazil Currency Perspectives Research Ana Esteves + 351 21 381 19 ana.esteves@itaueuropa.pt María Insausti + 351 21 381 1149 maria.insausti@itaueuropa.pt Bruno Baptista + 351 21 381 1136
More informationGlobal Monetary Policy Monitor
Global Monetary Policy Monitor October 01 Few movements in October, still expansionary In October, there were monetary policy decisions in 17 of the 33 countries we monitor. The global trend remains expansionary.
More informationMacro Vision November 23, 2017
Macro Vision November 23, 217 Argentina Facing the moderate inflation challenge While the Central Bank of Argentina has made progress in fighting inflation since 21, consumer prices continue expanding
More informationEconomic Outlook January, 2012
Economic Outlook January, 2012 Summary Global economy Low global growth scenario, tail risks have become smaller. Risks (Debt Ceiling, elections in Italy, growth in Europe). Brazil Activity shows signs
More informationFlash Economics. What difference does it make having a stable oil price at 50 dollars a barrel or an oil price rising by 10 dollars per year?
8 June 7-9 What difference does it make having a stable oil price at dollars a barrel or an oil price rising by dollars per year? Since the end of, oil prices have remained stable at around dollars a barrel
More informationScenario Review - Brazil
Scenario Review - Brazil January 2013 Unsteady State Intervention in the foreign-exchange market reveals that the economic policy goals and preferences may change, as could interest rates over the coming
More informationOn public finances; On financial asset prices; The risks seem to come from:
May 7 - Would a rise in interest rates be dangerous in the United States? Financial markets expect a very small rise in interest rates, both shortterm and long-term, in the United States. This expected
More informationScenario Review Brazil
Scenario Review Brazil August 2014 Activity Stalls; Inflation Wanes We have lowered our 2014 GDP growth forecast to 0.6% from 0.7%, given the apparent slowness of economic activity recovery after the World
More informationOPEC extends oil output cut through March 2018
Economics Research Desk Market Highlights: Oil & Gas update 25 May 2017 OPEC extends oil output cut through March 2018 Oil prices swung between sharp gains and losses in volatile trade on Thursday, after
More informationJeffrey Currie Goldman, Sachs & Co
The New Oil Order September 217 Jeffrey Currie Goldman, Sachs & Co. +1 212-357-681 jeffrey.currie@gs.com Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a
More informationGlobal Markets Weekly Report 17 th December Ehsan Khoman Head of MENA Research and Strategy
Global Markets Weekly Report 17 th December 218 Ehsan Khoman Head of MENA Research and Strategy ehsan.khoman@ae.mufg.jp 1 8 6 4 2-2 -6-8 -1 Global Bond Yields Global bond yields were mixed as first a risk-on
More informationFlash Economics. International monetary system: Return to Bretton Woods September
7 September 17-117 International monetary system: Return to Bretton Woods Bretton Woods is the name given to the internal monetary system that prevailed from the second half of the 199s to the early 1s.
More informationHas no impact on growth; Leads to a rise in interest rates;
April 7-7 What happens in the United States when there is a restrictive monetary policy combined with an expansionary fiscal policy? It now seems relatively clear that over the next two years there will
More informationFlash Economics. What must we assume if we do not believe long-term interest rates will rise sharply in the peripheral eurozone
December - 7 What must we assume if we do not believe long-term interest rates will rise sharply in the peripheral eurozone countries? If we believe a sharp rise in long-term interest rates in the peripheral
More informationCFTC Commitment of Traders
Deutsche Bank Markets Research Global Commodities Date 1 November 214 CFTC Commitment of Traders Report for w/e 4 November 214 Gold: length lowest since December 213 Silver: short reversed to net long
More informationGS Global ECS Credit Strategy Research. March 31, Alberto Gallo, CFA Goldman, Sachs & Co
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Goldman Sachs Research The CLO market shows signs of life GS Global ECS Credit Strategy Research March 31, 11 Alberto Gallo, CFA Goldman, Sachs & Co. 1-917-33-31 alberto.gallo@gs.com
More informationFlash Economics. US monetary policy: What matters more: The Fed Funds rate or the size of the Federal Reserve s balance sheet?
March - US monetary policy: What matters more: The Fed Funds rate or the size of the Federal Reserve s balance sheet? Monetary policy is transmitted to the US economy primarily via longterm interest rates
More informationRoger Yuan Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. (+852)
Goldman Sachs Research Precious Metals Gold caught in a tug-of-war May 2014 Roger Yuan Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. (+852) 2978-6128 roger.yuan@gs.com The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. does and seeks to do
More informationMIXED MESSAGES. KEY POINTS The ANZ Truckometer indexes lifted in August.
ANZ RESEARCH 11 September 18 CONTACT: Sharon Zollner Chief Economist Telephone: +6 9 357 9 Email: Sharon.Zollner@anz.com The next issue of the ANZ Truckometer is scheduled for release on 9 October 18 at
More informationANZ-ROY MORGAN AUSTRALIAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE MEDIA RELEASE. Figure 1. ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence and inflation expectations
ANZ RESEARCH ANZ-ROY MORGAN AUSTRALIAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE MEDIA RELEASE 17 APRIL 2018 CONTACT research@anz.com CONTRIBUTORS Mustafa Arif Junior Economist +91 80 6795 3801 mustafa.arif@anz.com David Plank
More informationPositive outlook for commodity prices
Positive outlook for commodity prices Sector Advisory ABN AMRO Group Economics ABN AMRO Sector Advisory ust Monthly Commodity Update price outlook for commodity markets 1 All commodities Energy / Precious
More informationSaudi Arabian economy
Research Department ARC Research Team Tel 966 11 211 9370, research@alrajhi-capital.com Saudi Arabian economy Saudi Arabian Economy The IMF executive board maintained the Kingdom s real GDP growth outlook
More informationMacro Vision August 4, 2017
Macro Vision August 4, 2017 Labor reform: Potential impacts In international comparisons, Brazil has one of the world s most inefficient labor markets. This report discusses aspects that make the Brazilian
More informationTable 1 Key macro indicators. Source: SAMA, * Provisional
Saudi Arabian economy Research Department ARC Research Team Tel 966 11 211 9370, research@alrajhi-capital.com Saudi Arabian Economy The Kingdom maintained oil output at an elevated level (~10.3mbpd in
More informationThe oil market remains strong
Oil Norway Review June 2007 The oil market remains strong Strong supply-/demand-fundamentals Arnstein Wigestrand (47) 21 00 85 16-1- The oil price remains at high level 80 Crude Oil-Brent Dated FOB U $/BBL
More informationGlobal Themes and Risks
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Goldman Sachs Research Global Themes and Risks April 2013 Abby Joseph Cohen, CFA Goldman, Sachs & Co. 1-212-902-4095 abby.cohen@gs.com Rachel Siu Goldman, Sachs & Co. 1-212-357-0493
More informationVideo March 1, StratTV at the TMT Conference. Watch the video: Related Research
March 1, 2016 Video StratTV at the TMT Conference MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLC Adam S. Parker, Ph.D. Adam.Parker@morganstanley.com Video March 1, 2016 +1 212 761-1755 Watch the video: Related Research US Equity
More informationFigure 1. ANZ Heavy Traffic Index and GDP. Heavy traffic index, 3-month avg (LHS) Figure 2. ANZ Light Traffic Index and GDP
ANZ Research ANZ NZ Truckometer 1 March 19 This is not personal advice. It does not consider your objectives or circumstances. Please refer to the Important Notice. CONTACT: Sharon Zollner Chief Economist
More informationRussian Ruble: Wethering global storms
Russian Ruble: Wethering global storms Thu Lan Nguyen FX & EM Research February 2019 Russian economic catch-up experienced a severe setback Russia Gross Domestic Product Percentage share 50% 45% 40% 35%
More informationAPPENDIX ECONOMIC INDICATORS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES
16 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY APPENDIX ECONOMIC INDICATORS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES Purchasing Managers Index EMERGING ECONOMIES Purchasing Managers Index US Eurozone Japan Brazil Russia India China Industrial
More informationFlash Economics. What happens when the Federal Reserve starts raising its interest rates? 14 September
1 September 1-9 What happens when the Federal Reserve starts raising its interest rates? We think that the economic situation in the United States and the need to build up some monetary policy leeway will
More informationOil Markets: Where next?
Oil Markets: Where next? Christof Rühl, Global Head of Research Singapore September 2016 1 Content Oil and the economy: Recap Why did lower oil prices not support economic growth? OPEC vs. US two sides
More information[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD
February 26, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» Federal Reserve officials see the economic growth and the acceleration of inflation as a good signal to continue to raise interest rate gradually over
More informationFlash Economics. What to expect from the rise in oil prices for growth in the euro zone and France? 16 January
6 January 7 - What to expect from the rise in oil prices for growth in the euro zone and? We look at the cases of the euro zone and. We begin with the rise in inflation caused by that in oil prices and
More informationANZ-ROY MORGAN AUSTRALIAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE MEDIA RELEASE. Weekly change, % Four-week average Budget. Budget. Budget. Budget.
Index ANZ RESEARCH ANZ-ROY MORGAN AUSTRALIAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE MEDIA RELEASE 29 MAY 2018 CONTACT research@anz.com CONTRIBUTORS Mustafa Arif Junior Economist +91 80 6795 3801 mustafa.arif@anz.com David
More informationMacro Research Economic outlook
Macro Research Economic outlook Macroeconomic Research Itaú Unibanco April 2017 Roadmap Global Economy The global outlook remains favorable Global growth positive momentum continues, with a synchronized
More informationSaudi Arabian Economy
Saudi Arabian Economy Economic Research Research Department ARC ResearchTeam, Tel. +966 1 211 9370, devassyp@alrajhi-capital.com IMF hikes Saudi Arabia s 2018 growth forecast The IMF raised Saudi Arabia
More informationSituación España 1T16. 1 st QUARTER. Situación. Españ. Economic Outlook. Latin America
Situación España 1T16 Situación 1 st QUARTER Españ Economic Outlook Latin America Latam outlook / February The global economy will continue to grow. but more slowly and with more risks. Uncertainty about
More informationCommodity Price Outlook & Risks
Commodity Outlook & Risks Research Department, Commodities Team March, 2 www.imf.org/commodities commodities@imf.org This monthly report presents a price outlook and risk assessment for selected commodities
More informationWeakness around the corner
Weakness around the corner Sector Advisory ABN AMRO Group Economics ABN AMRO Sector Advisory Monthly Commodity Update price outlook for commodity markets 1 All commodities Energy / Precious / Industrials
More informationFigure 1 Global Economic Data
Global perspective Economic Research Research Department ARC Research Team Tel: 966 11 211 9370, devassyp@alrajhi-capital.com Global economic data improves, but outlook remains uncertain Medium-term risks
More informationFlash Economics. Could there no longer be any credible reserve currency? 22 March
22 March 217-311 Could there no longer be any credible reserve currency? We consider an extreme situation in which there would no longer be any credible international reserve currency: If Donald Trump's
More information[ ] WEEKLY CHANGES AGAINST THE USD
February 12, 2018 [ ] MACRO & MARKETS COMMENTARY» In the early hours of last Friday, U.S Congress approved a major budget deal that opens the door for more increase in defense and non-defense spending
More informationCommodities Forecast Update Weakness awaits rest of 2014
Investment Research 15 October 2014 2014 Commodities Forecast Update Weakness awaits rest of 2014 Key themes Oil A markedly stronger dollar and concerns about the outlook have weighed on demand for commodities
More informationFlash Economics. What adjustments are possible when unemployment returns to the structural unemployment level?
June 1 - What adjustments are possible when unemployment returns to the structural unemployment level? It seems clear that unemployment is now close to the structural unemployment rate in the, the euro
More informationChina and Hong Kong Forex Market Developments RMB made the nine-month peak and FX reserves further expanded
China and Hong Kong Forex Market Developments RMB made the nine-month peak and FX reserves further expanded August 217 Monthly publication Alicia Garcia Herrero Chief Economist Asia Pacific +852 39-868
More informationSAIBOR eases marginally. Crude oil slips
Research Department ARC Research Team Tel 966 11 211 9370, research@alrajhi-capital.com Saudi Arabian Economy - Liquidity easing Saudi Arabian economy Liquidity improving owing to the government initiatives
More informationChina and Hong Kong Forex Market Developments One-way appreciation carrying into the new year
China and Hong Kong Forex Market Developments One-way appreciation carrying into the new year January 218 Monthly publication Alicia Garcia Herrero Chief Economist Asia Pacific +852 39-868 alicia.garciaherrero@natixis.com
More informationSaudi Arabian Economy
Saudi Arabian Economy Economic Research Research Department ARC Research Team, Tel. +966 1 211 9370, devassyp@alrajhi-capital.com Saudi economy continues to improve The recent data released by SAMA indicates
More informationFlash Economics. One concern in the United States: Commercial real estate. 07 October
7 October 1-119 One concern in the United States: Commercial real estate We believe there is now a bubble in US commercial real estate, and we seek to determine whether this is the greatest weak spot in
More informationLatAm Talking Points: Brazilian Economic Activity Edges Up in October
LatAm Talking Points LatAm Talking Points: Brazilian Economic Activity Edges Up in October Talk of the Day Brazil Out this morning, the Central Bank s economic activity index gained 0.36% seasonallyadjusted
More information