Commodity Spotlight Precious Metals

Transcription

1 Commodity Research Commodity Spotlight Commodity Spotlight Precious Metals Gold under the spell of a weak US dollar The gold price has climbed noticeably above the $1,3 per troy ounce mark to reach its highest level in twelve months. It has been driven up mainly by the significant depreciation of the US dollar, which finds itself under pressure due to falling Fed rate hike expectations and ongoing political wrangling within the US government. In the short term, the dispute over whether to raise the US debt ceiling is likely to lend further buoyancy to the gold price, though it may well suffer a setback in the fourth quarter when the market begins pricing in a Fed rate hike in December. We therefore continue to see gold at $1,3 per troy ounce at year s end. Gold hit $1,345 at the beginning of September, a level last seen twelve months ago. It has gained 12% since the beginning of July, thanks mainly to a rapid depreciation of the US dollar. For the first time since January 215, the euro has been worth over $1.2, where before gold started this latest advance in early July it was only $1.14, and in April less than $1.1 (Chart 1). The US dollar's pronounced weakness is the result of falling Fed rate hike expectations and political turmoil in the US. The majority of market participants no longer expect the Fed to raise interest rates again this year. The final failure of the planned health care reform in Congress, ongoing investigations and more and more revelations about the Trump election team's contacts with Russia, not to mention the high fluctuation rate among his advisers, all mount up to increasing doubts about the ability of the US Administration to overhaul taxation radically and launch the planned infrastructural spending. Trump's disbanding of two panels of advisers, comprising many CEOs, also gave rise to doubts about the President's economic policies. In the wake of the election, hopes of a more expansionary fiscal approach and a more business-friendly policy pushed up rate hike expectations sharply, and the dollar made strong gains. None of this is now left. Hanging above it all is Trump's threat to shut down government institutions and the risk of default if the debt limit is not raised by 3 September. The weakness of the US dollar as the prime cause of gold's gains is also demonstrated by the price performance of gold in euros. Since early July, this has risen only 7%, and now stands above the 1,1 mark, only slightly above the starting level of 217. In contrast, gold in US dollar terms has gained 17% since the beginning of the year. 6 September 217 Commerzbank Forecasts 217/18 Q3 Q4 Q1 Precious metals Gold Silver Platinum Palladium USD per troy ounce CHART 1: Exchange rate chiefly responsible for this year s gold price rise Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Gold in USD per troy ounce, left EUR-USD exchange rate, right For important disclosure information please see page 8. research.commerzbank.com / Bloomberg: CBKR / Research APP available Head of Commodity Research Eugen Weinberg eugen.weinberg@commerzbank.com Analyst Carsten Fritsch carsten.fritsch@commerzbank.com Analyst Barbara Lambrecht barbara.lambrecht@commerzbank.com Analyst Michaela Kuhl michaela.kuhl@commerzbank.com Analyst Daniel Briesemann daniel.briesemann@commerzbank.com

2 Marked rise in net long positions since early July Strong outflows particularly from SPDR Gold Trust in July followed by inflows in August Indian gold imports weaker of late after strong first half year Further short-term upside potential for gold price CHART 2: Speculative buying drives up gold price Speculative market positioning in thousand contracts, gold price in USD per troy ounce ' contracts -5 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 spec. net long posit., ls Speculative buying will no doubt likewise have played a major role in the latest gold price gains, and are probably still doing so. Since the low at the start of July, speculators have been increasing their net long positions for seven weeks in a row. On the cut-off date of 29 August, they hit 221, contracts, the highest level since September last year (Chart 2). This was an increase of 198, contracts since 11 July, corresponding to purchases of some 615 tons of paper gold on the futures market. Half of this was due to building long positions, the other half due to reducing short positions. The latter are now at their lowest level since November 212. The boost from this front should however probably ease off now. Investment demand has presented a mixed picture over the past two months. In July, for the first time this year, gold ETFs experienced monthly losses of almost 68 tons. Most of this, 61 tons, was accounted for by the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust (Chart 3). This is used primarily by institutional investors such as hedge funds, banks and investment companies. With the US equity markets still on a high, with several new record highs reached in July, these have probably switched from gold to equities for performance reasons. In contrast, the gold ETFs listed in Europe showed virtually no losses, and some in Germany and Switzerland actually saw small gains. So it would be wrong to claim that a broad-based retreat from ETF investors from gold had taken place. Things changed in August; more than 4 tons returned into gold ETFs, 6% of this to the SPDR Gold Trust. One reason was no doubt the fallout from the political wrangling in Washington, plus mounting tensions between the US and North Korea, bringing the soaring US equity markets first to a halt, after which in mid-august a correction set in. Most of the influx to ETFs then occurred in the second half of August. In contrast, demand for US gold coins was modest in both July and August. In both months combined, only 27, ounces were sold, the lowest level for those two months in 11 years, according to the U.S. Mint. Physical demand for gold in the main Asian markets, China and India, was on the modest side in July. India's gold imports amounted to 52 tons, the lowest level this year. During the first six months, the figure was 87 tons on average per month (Chart 4, Page 3). However, first-half imports were initially boosted by a backlog of demand following the cash reform of last autumn, and then by early purchases prior to the introduction of a tax on gold purchases in early July. This additional impetus no longer exists. The marked rise in the price in July, plus reports of varying regional levels of rain during the monsoon, will no doubt also have dampened consumer demand. The discounts versus the global market price also points to sluggish demand in August. The situation in China is similar. Admittedly, net imports from Hong Kong stabilised in July at 72 tons (Chart 4, Page 3), but year on year this is a drop of almost 2 tons. Imports from Switzerland actually fell to below 2 tons, only just above the low January level. After overcoming the 217 highs from mid-april, early June and mid-august at around $1,3 per troy ounce, and in view of the forthcoming debate in September on raising the debt ceiling, the gold price seems set to make further initial gains. Rating agency Fitch has already hinted that it will be reviewing the AAA rating for Treasuries if an early agreement is not reached. Standard & Poor s warned that insolvency could entail more severe consequences for the US economy than were caused by the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 28. When the threat of Gold ($ per troy ounce), rs CHART 3: Gold-ETFs: First outflows, then inflows Daily change in gold ETF holdings, cumulative since early July in tons Jul 13-Jul 23-Jul 2-Aug 12-Aug 22-Aug 1-Sep SPDR Gold Trust other ETFs 2 6 September 217

3 Short-term setback due to Fed rate hike at year s end insolvency arose in the summer of 211, S&P stripped the US of its AAA rating and the gold price climbed soon after to an all-time high of a good $1,9 per troy ounce a record that still stands. When government institutions were shut down for a period two years later, the market reaction was far more moderate. We therefore see potential for the gold price to rise further in the short term, though we are confident that the worst will not come to the worst in the US. The Fed announcement also expected in September that it will no longer be re-investing proceeds from maturing Treasuries should hardly trigger any reaction on the market. Physical demand for gold in Asia is likely to be held back in the wake of the strong price gains of recent weeks. The price of gold in Indian rupees is at its highest level since last November. Since India's gold consumers generally respond to any price changes, they will no doubt hold back from buying until prices have fallen again. Hence, the usual demand pick-up in autumn should be correspondingly weaker. Unlike most market players, we do expect the Fed to raise rates again in December. Once the market starts to factor this in, gold should come under renewed pressure. We are therefore sticking to our year-end forecast of $1,3 per troy ounce. We envisage further gains in 218 to $1,4 per troy ounce. The Fed is likely to raise rates a total of three times also next year. However, this does not necessarily rule out a rise in the price of gold, this year showed. Since at the same time inflation can be expected to increase somewhat, US real interest rates will remain low in 218 too, which should boost the demand for gold (Chart 5). The ECB will be scaling back its bond purchases gradually, but it is not likely to raise interest rates, so that real rates in the eurozone will remain negative. This too suggests a rise in the price of gold in euros. CHART 4: Gold demand weakening in Asia Monthly gold imports in tons Gold imports India Net gold imports China via Hong Kong CHART 5: Low real interest rates still have positive impact on gold real interest rates: ten-year US yields minus US inflation rate Real interest rates, left Gold (US$/oz), right Source: RBI, Hongkong Statistics Department, Reuters, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research 6 September 217 3

4 Speculative financial investors weighing on silver price Tailwind from industrial demand, anticyclical behaviour by ETF investors Silver On the whole, silver is moving in tandem with gold, but somewhat more weakly. It is still some way from this year's mid-april high of $18.65 per troy ounce. However, it has managed to pass the early June peak of $17.75 just recently (Chart 6). The prior drop in price was more exaggerated with silver, though. At the beginning of July, it hit a 15-month low of $15.19 per troy ounce, which is also reflected in the gold/silver ratio. Despite a drop from 79 in July to the current 75, this is still well above the level up to mid-april. Silver's underperformance can be explained by what speculative investors have been doing. Their reduction of net long positions from mid- April to early July was stronger here than with gold, while the following build-up was considerably weaker. Current net long silver positions in silver are still 45% below the mid-april level, whereas gold positions are much higher. In July, silver ETFs saw an influx of almost 3 tons, but in August outflows of more than 4 tons. In other words, ETF investors have reined in the recent price increase with their sales. Industrial demand, which makes up roughly half the total demand for silver, appears to be picking up. China, for example, imported 2,357 tons of silver from January to July, 4% more than in the prior-year period. This was last topped in 21. China already imported more silver in the first seven months of this year than it did in the first nine months of last year (Chart 7). Silver should continue to follow gold's lead. Since so far it has followed gold's upward course at a slower rate, we see some scope to catch-up. Additional support can be expected from industrial demand, aided by a rise in Chinese imports and the stronger Manufacturing PMI s in almost all the main economic regions, this being the main demand component for silver. There is no obvious correlation this year between ETF demand and the price of silver. What has happened is that when prices have been rising, silver ETF holdings have been sold, and bought again when prices have fallen. This anticyclical approach by ETF investors has thus prevented major price fluctuations. That said, this could change if the silver market were to tighten sufficiently as a result of stronger industrial demand and a decrease in mining and recycling supply, possibly giving rise to a positive correlation between ETF demand and the silver price. We expect to see silver at $18 per troy ounce by year s end. If the debt dispute in the US were to escalate, silver would probably underperform gold, as this would also weigh on sentiment in industry. CHART 6: Silver underperforming gold since mid-april Gold/silver price ratio, silver price in USD per troy ounce Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Gold/Silver ratio, ls Silver (USD per troy ounce), rs CHART 7: China importing significantly more silver again Cumulative silver imports in tons ytd in tons Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Chinese customs authorities, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research 4 6 September 217

5 At a glance TABLE 1: Our forecasts USD per troy ounce Quarterly average Yearly average 5-Sep Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q Gold Silver Platinum Palladium Quarterly averages, based on spot prices; TABLE 2: ETF holdings (weekly data) Total net change % change 52 weeks Date Holdings 1 week 1 month 1 year 1 year High Low Gold ETFs (in ' ounces) Silver ETFs (in ' ounces) Platinum ETFs (in ' ounces) Palladium ETFs (in ' ounces) TABLE 3: Net long positions of money managers (weekly data) Total net change % change 52 weeks Date Level 1 week 1 month 1 year High Low Gold (in ' contracts) Silver (in ' contracts) Platinum (in ' contracts) Palladium (in ' contracts) TABLE 4: History Current % change History USD /oz 5-Sep 1 week 1 month y-t-d y-o-y Q115 Q215 Q315 Q415 Q116 Q216 Q316 Q416 Gold Silver Platinum Palladium TABLE 5: World Official Gold Holdings (monthly data) Country tons Country tons USA 8,133.5 Russia 1,715.8 (+28.5) Germany 3,374.1 (-3.2) Switzerland 1,4. IMF 2,814. Japan Italy 2,451.8 Netherlands France 2,435.9 India China 1,842.6 ECB 54.8 Source: World Gold Council, Commerzbank Research TABLE 6: Upcoming Events 7 September EUR ECB meeting, followed by press conference 19/2 September USA FOMC meeting, followed by press conference 26 September CHN Gold imports via Hong Kong, August 1 October USA Vehicle sales, September 11 October USA FOMC minutes from September 19/2 meeting Early November WGC Gold Demand Trends 3 rd Quarter Mid-November JM Half-yearly PGM market report Source: Fed, ECB, WGC, Johnson Matthey, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research 6 September 217 5

6 CHART 8: Net long positions of money managers (Gold) ' contracts Speculative net longs, left CHART 1: US dollar versus gold Gold (USD/oz.), right US-Dollar Index (inverted), ls Gold (US$/oz.), rs CHART 12: Chinese net gold imports via Hong Kong in tons in tons Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Source: Statistics Department of HK, Reuters, Commerzbank Research CHART 14: Chinese silver imports ytd in tons Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Chinese Customs Authority, Commerzbank Research CHART 9: Gold: ETF holdings 9 8 in mm oz ETF holdings, left CHART 11: US real interest rates versus gold Gold price (US$/oz), right Real interest rates, left CHART 13: Indian gold imports in tons Gold (US$/oz), right Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Source: RBI, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Research CHART 15: Gold/Silver ratio Ounces of silver per ounce of gold September 217

7 v Commodity Research Commodity Spotlight Precious Metals CHART 16: Net long positions of money managers (Silver) ' contracts spec. net long positions, ls Silver (US$/oz.), rs CHART 18: Net long posit. of money managers (Platinum) ' contracts spec. net long positions, ls Platinum (US$/oz), rs CHART 2: Net long posit. of money managers (Palladium) ' contracts spec. net long positions, ls Palladium (US$/oz), rs CHART 22: Price difference platinum vs gold (US$/oz) CHART 17: Silver: ETF holdings in mm oz ETF holdings, ls CHART 19: Platinum: ETF holdings in ' oz Silver price (US$/oz), rs ETF holdings, ls CHART 21: Palladium: ETF holdings in ' oz Platinum price (US$/oz), rs ETF holdings, ls Palladium price (US$/oz), rs CHART 23: Price difference platinum vs palladium (US$/oz) September 217 7

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