DSTA OUTLOOK EVENT 2016
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1 Rubric DSTA OUTLOOK EVENT
2 Welcome Also to our 15 Primary Dealers for 2016 ABN Amro Bank Barclays Capital* Citigroup* Commerzbank* Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC France ING Bank* Jefferies Natixis Nomura Rabobank* Royal Bank of Scotland* Santander GB&M Société Générale * Also Commercial Paper Dealer and our 5 Single Market Specialists BBVA Crédit Agricole DZ Bank Nordea UBS* 2 DSTA Outlook Event 2016
3 Today s programme hrs Welcome hrs Introduction on Liquidity and QE by Ralph Weidenfeller (ECB) hrs Panel discussion led by Sander Schol (JPM) hrs Coffee break hrs Presentation Outlook 2016 by Niek Nahuis (DSTA) and Q&A hrs DSTA Awards hrs Drinks & Bites 3 DSTA Outlook Event 2016
4 Rubric DSTA Niek Nahuis The Hague,
5 Overview of this presentation Economic and budgetary outlook Looking back on funding 2015 Risk framework Funding plan 2016 Questions & answers 5 DSTA Outlook Event 2016
6 Economic and budgetary outlook 6 Outlook december 2009
7 Economic projections for 2015 have improved Figures for 2015 Dec 2014 Dec 2015 GDP growth 1.50% 2.0% Private consumption 1.25% 1.7% Investment 3.25% 7.1% Exports 4.50% 4.7% Unemployment 6.25% 6.9% Source: CPB 7 DSTA Outlook Event 2016
8 Economic projections 2016 Sep 2015 Dec 2015 GDP growth 2.4% 2.1% Private consumption 1.9% 2.2% Investment 6.0% 6.8% Exports 5.1% 4.4% Unemployment 6.7% 6.7% Source: CPB 8 DSTA Outlook Event 2016
9 Cash balance improved by one-offs Dec 2014 Dec 2015 Dec 2015 EMU deficit (% GDP) EMU debt (% GDP) Sep 2014 Nov 2015 Sep 2015 Cash deficit ( bn) Sources: CPB (EMU deficit and debt), Ministry of Finance (cash deficit) 9 DSTA Outlook Event 2016
10 10 Looking back on funding 2015
11 Looking back on funding 2015 Capital market 48 bn = 48 ( 47.4 bn) Money market under pressure 11 DSTA Outlook Event 2016
12 Cash deficit and money market ( md) Cash deficit 15 MM instruments 15 Collateral Early redemption ABN Amro / Fortis IPO ABN Amro Bank Economy and other Unwinds IRS swaps Remaining cash deficit Remaining MM instruments Remaining Cash Collateral 12 DSTA Outlook Event 2016
13 Money market below desired level Jan 2014 Apr 2014 Jul 2014 Oct 2014 Jan 2015 Apr 2015 Jul 2015 Oct 2015 DTC ECP Cash 13 DSTA Outlook Event 2016
14 Plaatje risk framework Risk framework Outlook december 2009
15 Interest rate risk framework year benchmark as the core of our risk framework Interest rate risk management and funding policy fully separated Deviations from the benchmark since 2012 led to an increased average maturity Recommendations evaluation 2015: increase maturity introduce clear risk indicators and reduce dependency on swaps 15 DSTA Outlook Event 2016
16 Average maturity debt portfolio Risk management Risk management Risk management Tolerance margin 16 DSTA Outlook Event 2016
17 Consequences Introduction of maximum refixing amount Funding strategy remains unchanged Swaps become a fine tuning instrument Issuance more important in risk management Option to revise strategy 17 DSTA Outlook Event 2016
18 Plaatje funding plan 18 Funding plan 2016 Outlook december 2009
19 Borrowing requirement 2016 Borrowing requirement ( bn) Capital market redemptions Money market ultimo Cash collateral ultimo Cash deficit 7.6 Total funding requirement DSTA Outlook Event 2016
20 Funding need 2016 Funding ( bn) Capital market Money market Cash collateral ultimo 2016* 20.6 Total funding requirement * No estimation possible, cash collateral ultimo 2015 Money market remains primary buffer New in 2016: target range capital market 20 DSTA Outlook Event 2016
21 Redemption profile new issuance Current redemptions New 10-year DSL New 5-year DSL First off-the-run Other longer dated off-the-runs 21 DSTA Outlook Event 2016
22 Issuance in 2016 DSL Indicative amount ( bn) New 10-year DSL 15 New 5-year DSL * Reopening longer dated off-the-run DSLs Total DSL funding * Will be reopened again in 2017 to reach 15 bn DSL issuance every 2nd Tuesday, 4th Tuesday as reserve date DTC issuance every 1st and 3rd Monday of the month 22 DSTA Outlook Event 2016
23 Q & A Q & A plaatje 23
24 Q & A Q & A plaatje 24 DSTA Awards
25 DSTA Awards Quotation achievements in 2015 Best DTC quoting bank Best DSL quoting bank Commerzbank ING Bank 25 DSTA Outlook Event 2016
26 DSTA Awards Top 3 CP-dealers 1 Rabobank 2 ING Bank 3 Citigroup 26 DSTA Outlook Event 2016
27 DSTA Awards Top 3 DTCs 1 Commerzbank 2 ING Bank 3 HSBC France 27 DSTA Outlook Event 2016
28 DSTA Awards Top 3 DSLs 1 ABN Amro Bank 2 Royal Bank of Scotland 3 ING Bank 28 DSTA Outlook Event 2016
29 Highlights Outlook 2016 Capital market funding: target range bn New 5-year DSL before the summer. DSL will reach 7.5 bn - 10 bn in 2016; the rest in 2017 New 10-year DSL March. DSL will reach 15 bn in 2016 A minimum of two reopenings of longer dated off-the-run bonds in DSTA Outlook Event 2016
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