WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE. Stuart Freeman, CFA Co-Head of Global Equity Strategy

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1 WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE Stuart Freeman, CFA Co-Head of Global Equity Strategy Asset Group Overviews Equities... 4 Fixed Income... 5 Real Assets... 6 Alternative Investments... 7 December 18, 2017 Equities Tend to Lead Economy Sectors May Tell Us More» The stock market tends to be one of the leading indicators for the domestic economy.» Historically, some sectors have peaked in a cycle well before the overall economy (that is, with a longer lead time ).» Overall, those sectors that have tended to offer the longest advance lead times have only recently registered peaks for this cycle. This factor aligns with other leading indicators that suggest continuing growth and new highs for U.S. equities. What It May Mean for Investors» We continue to favor market sectors that can benefit from cyclical expansion. We believe that it is still too early to lean defensively. As we move through the latter stages of this economic recovery, we continue to gather all pertinent information that could signal how close the next recession might be. Currently, most leading economic data (whether it is hard data or data derived from the polling of individuals) are suggesting more economic growth ahead in The U.S. equity market, with its persistent reach for new highs, suggests better growth, with modest inflation, next year. This week, we have broken out 10 S&P 500 Index sectors to discuss what their performance and lead/lag histories may tell us about the health of the economy on a forward-looking basis. (The Real Estate sector was not included as it is a relatively new addition to the S&P 500 Index, has a shorter history, and because we consider it to be a separate asset class.) Some sectors tend to have better leading histories than others in the latter stages of a cycle. While every cycle is somewhat different from the others, the aggregate examination of the best leading sectors offers some clues. If a sector index typically peaks many months before the end of a cycle, but it remains near this cycle s highs, it likely is suggesting more growth to come. We have focused upon the lead times between the 10 industry sectors recent historical cycle peaks and the beginning of the following recessions. We have used the early 1990s, the early 2000s, and the late 2000s recessions as base cycles Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 1 of 9

2 Equities Tend to Lead Economy Sectors May Tell Us More Table 1 shows the lead time for each industry sector over the past three cycles, between its cycle peak and the next recession. The lead times also are averaged, and then followed by the period of time since each sector hit its sector high in this cycle. The sectors were arranged by longest historical lead time to the shortest lead time, and we included ancillary data on the months it took for a sector index to reach its previous cycle highs. S&P 500 Index sectors: Lead times between sector peaks and next U.S. recession Sector Materials Consumer Discretionary Telecom Services Financials Technology Sector peak lead time (months), early 1990s Sector peak lead time (months), early 2000s Sector peak lead time (months), late 2000s Average (months): Most recent peak: 1 week ago 1 week ago 17 months ago 1 week ago 2 weeks ago Months for sector to return to previous cycle high Early 1990s Early 2000s Not yet reached Years Late 2000s Not yet reached 39 Sector Health Care Industrials Utilities Consumer Staples Energy Sector peak lead time (months), early 1990s 0* Sector peak lead time (months), early 2000s ** Sector peak lead time (months), late 2000s 7 3 0* 1-6** Average (months): ** 7 weeks ago 1 week ago 4 weeks ago 6 months ago, but index almost hit peak in early December Cycle Peak - 42 months ago Most recent peak: Months for sector to return to previous cycle high Early 1990s Early 2000s 136*** 44 83**** Late 2000s Source: Bloomberg, The National Bureau of Economic Research, Wells Fargo Investment Institute. December 13, * First month of the recession. ** At or after the start of the recession. *** After the following recession. **** A month before the following recession. As shown, the sectors that have tended to peak the earliest include the following four sectors. Materials: Averaging a 12-month lead time Consumer Discretionary: Averaging an 11-month lead time Telecom Services: Averaging a 10-month lead time Financials: Averaging a 6.7-month lead time Later-cycle outperformers like the Industrials and Energy sectors, and more defensive sectors like Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples, do not tend to have long lead times before the economy peaks. In fact, Energy (which is typically a late-cycle sector that often benefits from strong global growth late in an economic cycle) has frequently peaked at the very start of a recession or months into a recession. The defensive sectors (as a group) tend to outperform the general equity market during soft periods in the economy and during recessions, although that outperformance often is reflected by a shallower decline than more cyclically sensitive sectors during soft economic periods Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 2 of 9

3 Equities Tend to Lead Economy Sectors May Tell Us More While the Materials sector has tended to peak an average of 12 months before a U.S. recession, its most recent peak was only about a week ago. This holds true for the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Financials sector as well. New highs have been very recent. We believe that these longer lead-time sectors are signaling more U.S. growth for On the other hand, while the Telecom Services sector has tended to peak an average of 10 months before a recession, the sector peaked 17 months ago, and that sector is unlikely to hit higher highs this cycle. This typically would represent a negative for the domestic economy. Yet, the Telecom Services sector has been under significant pricing and margin pressure. In this sector s case, the troubled fundamental conditions are driving (what appears to be) an early peak for this sector. (Telecom Services carries a very small market-capitalization weighting in the S&P 500 Index). For fundamental reasons, we believe that it is fair to discount this cycle s weakness in that sector. Overall, we believe that the U.S. equity market and its most consistent leading sectors continue to signal the likelihood of ongoing economic growth in 2018 that should support the equity market next year. We also continue to monitor the ongoing strength of international economic growth, signs of inflation that could cause the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise rates more aggressively than expected (which could slow growth and pressure valuations), and investor tendencies to speculate aggressively in any one sector. To date, the international economy (traditionally important for U.S. growth later in a cycle) continues to offer the broadest expansion of this cycle. Core inflation remains under control. And overall, the market capitalizations of sectors within the S&P 500 Index have continued to be relatively well diversified. Investors do not appear to be leaning too heavily into any one sector (speculation that can often be seen very late in cycles). We see more U.S. equity-market and economic upside in 2018, and continue to favor a lean toward cyclical large-cap sectors within a well-diversified portfolio Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 3 of 9

4 EQUITIES Sean Lynch, CFA Co-Head of Global Equity Strategy Will it be 20/20? A different vision for 2018 Underweight U.S. Small Cap Equities U.S. Large Cap Equities U.S. Mid Cap Equities Developed Market Ex-U.S. Equities The S&P 500 Index is up 20.9% this year. Since bottoming on March 8, 2009, the index has had a similar average annual total return of 20%. We believe that 20% equity returns will be hard to deliver in As highlighted in our 2018 Outlook report, we believe that the U.S. equity bull market is aging but is not ending in Many of the same fundamental drivers remain in place (as they have since the bull market began). Interest rates remain historically low, and earnings are showing steady improvement. Yet, U.S. equity valuations exceed those of their international counterparts, and consequently, U.S. markets have a weaker ability to cushion potential setbacks. Valuations have yet to contract during this period of Fed tightening, but rates have remained low and generally supportive. We believe that the key to a higher S&P 500 Index in 2018 will be earnings growth, not valuation expansion. We used an 18.6 price/earnings (P/E) multiple on our $145 S&P 500 earnings target to arrive at our 2700 midpoint for our year-end 2018 S&P 500 target range. This valuation is higher than the long-term median of 16.7, but it is lower than what others on Wall Street have forecasted. The table below shows that S&P 500 earnings have shown steady improvement, particularly moving into the latter part of the economic cycle. As long as markets remain focused on fundamentals, we believe that U.S. large caps are likely to continue the appreciation delivered over the past nine years but investors may not see another 20-percent gain for the S&P 500 Index in 2018.» We believe that the U.S. bull market is aging but not ending in 2018.» In our view, the key to a higher S&P 500 Index in 2018 will be earnings growth, rather than valuation expansion. Emerging Market Equities S&P 500 Index: Earnings, Valuation, Return and Closing Value S&P 500 Index Total Return 26% 15% 2% 16% 32% 14% 1% 12% 21% Closing Value Earnings per Share E P/E Valuation Annualized Return since % Sources: Bloomberg, S&P Global Market Intelligence, December 13, E = estimated. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. An index is unmanaged and not available for direct investment Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 4 of 9

5 FIXED INCOME Brian Rehling, CFA Co-Head of Global Fixed Income Strategy New Year New FOMC Underweight High Yield Taxable Fixed Income Underweight Developed Market Ex.-U.S. Fixed Income U.S. Short Term Taxable Fixed Income U.S. Long Term Taxable Fixed Income Emerging Market Fixed Income U.S. Taxable Investment Grade Fixed Income U.S. Intermediate Term Taxable Fixed Income The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) consists of 12 members seven permanent members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents that serve oneyear rotating terms. Currently, three Board of Governors positions remain vacant leaving just nine voting members. The beginning of the year marks the annual rotation of non-permanent FOMC voting members. In 2018, Robert Kaplan, Patrick Harker, Neel Kashkari, and Charles Evans will no longer be FOMC voting members. Neel Kashkari and Charles Evans supplied the only dissenting votes in 2017, preferring to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged, rather than voting with the FOMC majority in raising rates. The new voting members will come from the Federal Reserve Banks in Cleveland, San Francisco, Atlanta, and Richmond. They include Loretta Mester, John Williams, Raphael Bostic and Thomas Barkin. This rotation is significant as some of the more vocal doves among the 2017 voting members will be replaced with new voting members that are likely to favor a more centrist, or even hawkish, approach. We expect most of the new regional president voting members to vote with the center majority in In early February, Jerome Powell is expected to take the reins of the FOMC from Janet Yellen as chairman. We look for Jerome Powell to continue to advocate for gradual rate increases, consistent with Janet Yellen s policy views. Throughout 2018, we could see presidential nominations to fill open governor positions. The uncertainty around a meaningful turnover in FOMC membership increases the possibility of messaging or policy errors in 2018.» We look for the Fed to err on the side of fewer rate hikes at least until inflation pressures become evident. As a result, we forecast just two rate hikes in 2018, rather than the Fed s expectation of three rate hikes.» Fixed-income volatility has been at historically low levels in 2017, but we expect volatility to rise in New Fed membership increases the potential for volatility in fixed-income markets.» Increases in the short-term fed funds rate (as longer-term rates have remained contained) have flattened the yield curve. This dynamic decreases the yield pickup from moving into longer maturities and also diminishes the benefit from doing so Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 5 of 9

6 REAL ASSETS Austin Pickle, CFA Underweight Commodities Private Real Estate Public Real Estate Oil is Out of Gas Live so your friends can defend you, but never have to. --Arnold Glasow Everything has been going right for oil since the June low. Inventory reports have largely been bullish, OPEC and Russia have agreed to extend their oil-production quota, and the U.S. supply response to higher oil prices has been slow to materialize. 1 (This has been hampered, in part, by temporary closures due to hurricanes, and by a shortage of fracking crews). All of these factors are widely known. Yet, there is another, less followed, driver of oil-price returns: money managers, also known as the smart money. And the smart money recently has been piling on bullish bets and removing bearish ones (based on futures positions). See chart below. The result has been an increase in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from $42 per barrel in June to nearly $60 a couple of weeks ago. The smart money earns its moniker much of the time piling on short positions as prices drop and unwinding (closing out or buying back) short positions as prices rise. In other words, one can say that money managers are good at following the trend. But, historically, it has paid off to move against the smart money at market extremes. The chart below illustrates this point. The yellow boxes in the bottom panel highlight extreme money-manager bullishness (a low percentage of short positions). Notice how the price of oil typically stalls and then falls soon after these bullish extremes. Today, we sit at one of the most bullish readings, with only 9% of money manager positions being bearish. With so few short positions left to unwind, oil likely has run out of gas for now.» There appears to be little fuel in the tank to push oil prices higher from here.» We expect oil prices to fade in the coming months and to end 2018 between $40 and $50 per barrel. Oil versus managed money short positions Oil price (U.S. dollars/barrel) WTI Crude Oil Spot Price Oil price (U.S. dollars/barrel) Managed money shorts (%) Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Managed Money Shorts (as % of all managed money open interest) Sources: Bloomberg, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Data: 12/1/ /12/2017. Top panel: Daily data. Bottom panel: Weekly data. Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec Managed money shorts (%) 1 OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 6 of 9

7 ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS Justin Lenarcic Global Alternative Investment Strategist Private Equity Hedge Funds-Macro Hedge Funds-Event Driven Hedge Funds-Relative Value Hedge Funds-Equity Hedge Trends in Global Equities Not Enough for Systematic Macro Global equities have gained by more than 20% year to date, yet the HFRI Macro Systematic Diversified Index has risen by only 1.2% through November Why is a strategy based on following trends underperforming so significantly in an environment with such a clearly defined trend? We believe that the answer lies in the fact that most Systematic Macro strategies are broadly diversified with exposure to equities, fixed income, commodities, and currencies. This implicitly limits concentration risk and improves the diversification potential of this strategy. The truth is that most Systematic Macro managers have captured the trend in global equities this year. Yet, the equityclass profits have been offset by losses in the three other asset classes. Momentum is an important ingredient for Systematic Macro strategies. Models often are designed to increase risk (including use of leverage) if a trend exhibits momentum. The chart below shows that momentum has declined across the commodity, fixed income, and currency classes; yet it has increased significantly in equities. There are two implications from this analysis. First, in order for Macro strategies to potentially generate better performance, trends and momentum need to develop in asset classes other than global equities (similar to what was seen in the second half of 2014). Second, given the trend in global equities, most Systematic Macro strategies have long equity exposure, which would negatively affect returns in the event of a correction.» Due to imbedded diversification, Systematic Macro strategies have performed best in environments with trends and momentum in multiple asset classes (not just in equities).» Given the strong trend and momentum in global equities, many Systematic Macro managers have long equity exposure and would experience difficulty in a correction. Decline in momentum across most asset classes 104 Alternative investments, such as hedge funds, private equity, private debt and private real estate funds are not suitable for all investors and are only open to accredited or qualified investors within the meaning of U.S. securities laws. Index Level Nov-01 Nov-03 Nov-05 Nov-07 Nov-09 Nov-11 Nov-13 Nov-15 Nov-17 Equity Momentum G10 FX Momentum Commodity Momentum Fixed Income Momentum Sources: Bloomberg, Société Générale, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, December 13, The G10 currencies include: US dollar, Australian dollar, British pound, Canadian dollar, euro, Japanese yen, New Zealand dollar, Norwegian krone, Swedish krona, and the Swiss franc. 2 Global equity returns are based on the MSCI All Country World (USD) Index, with performance calculated through December 13, Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 7 of 9

8 Risks Considerations Each asset class has its own risk and return characteristics. The level of risk associated with a particular investment or asset class generally correlates with the level of return the investment or asset class might achieve. Stock markets, especially foreign markets, are volatile. Stock values may fluctuate in response to general economic and market conditions, the prospects of individual companies, and industry sectors. Foreign investing has additional risks including those associated with currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, and different accounting standards. These risks are heightened in emerging markets. Small- and mid-cap stocks are generally more volatile, subject to greater risks and are less liquid than large company stocks. Bonds are subject to market, interest rate, price, credit/default, liquidity, inflation and other risks. Prices tend to be inversely affected by changes in interest rates. High yield (junk) bonds have lower credit ratings and are subject to greater risk of default and greater principal risk. The commodities markets are considered speculative, carry substantial risks, and have experienced periods of extreme volatility. Investing in a volatile and uncertain commodities market may cause a portfolio to rapidly increase or decrease in value which may result in greater share price volatility. Real estate has special risks including the possible illiquidity of underlying properties, credit risk, interest rate fluctuations and the impact of varied economic conditions. Alternative investments, such as hedge funds, private equity/private debt and private real estate funds, are speculative and involve a high degree of risk that is suitable only for those investors who have the financial sophistication and expertise to evaluate the merits and risks of an investment in a fund and for which the fund does not represent a complete investment program. They entail significant risks that can include losses due to leveraging or other speculative investment practices, lack of liquidity, volatility of returns, restrictions on transferring interests in a fund, potential lack of diversification, absence and/or delay of information regarding valuations and pricing, complex tax structures and delays in tax reporting, less regulation and higher fees than mutual funds. Hedge fund, private equity, private debt and private real estate fund investing involves other material risks including capital loss and the loss of the entire amount invested. A fund's offering documents should be carefully reviewed prior to investing. Hedge fund strategies, such as Equity Hedge, Event Driven, Macro and Relative Value, may expose investors to the risks associated with the use of short selling, leverage, derivatives and arbitrage methodologies. Short sales involve leverage and theoretically unlimited loss potential since the market price of securities sold short may continuously increase. The use of leverage in a portfolio varies by strategy. Leverage can significantly increase return potential but create greater risk of loss. Derivatives generally have implied leverage which can magnify volatility and may entail other risks such as market, interest rate, credit, counterparty and management risks. Arbitrage strategies expose a fund to the risk that the anticipated arbitrage opportunities will not develop as anticipated, resulting in potentially reduced returns or losses to the fund. Definitions HFRI Macro Systematic Diversified Index: Diversified strategies employing mathematical, algorithmic and technical models, with little or no influence of individuals over the portfolio positioning. Strategies are designed to identify opportunities in markets exhibiting trending or momentum characteristics across individual instruments or asset classes. Strategies typically employ quantitative processes which focus on statistically robust or technical patterns in the return series of the asset, and they typically focus on highly liquid instruments and maintain shorter holding periods than either discretionary or mean-reverting strategies. Although some strategies seek to employ counter-trend models, strategies benefit most from an environment characterized by persistent, discernible trending behavior. Typically have no greater than 35 percent of portfolio in either dedicated currency or commodity exposures over a given market cycle. MSCI All Country World Index (MSCI ACWI) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of 23 developed and 23 emerging markets. S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of 500 widely held common stocks that is generally considered representative of the US stock market. An index is unmanaged and not available for direct investment. General Disclosures Global Investment Strategy (GIS) is a division of Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Inc. (WFII). WFII is a registered investment adviser and wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A., a bank affiliate of Wells Fargo & Company. The information in this report was prepared by Global Investment Strategy. Opinions represent GIS opinion as of the date of this report and are for general information purposes only and are not intended to predict or guarantee the future performance of any individual security, market sector or the markets generally. GIS does not undertake to advise you of any change in its opinions or the information contained in this report. Wells Fargo & Company affiliates may issue reports or have opinions that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, this report. The information contained herein constitutes general information and is not directed to, designed for, or individually tailored to, any particular investor or potential investor. This report is not intended to be a client-specific suitability analysis or recommendation, an offer to participate in any investment, or a recommendation to buy, hold or sell securities. Do not use this report as the sole basis for investment decisions. Do not select an asset class or investment product based on performance alone. Consider all relevant information, including your existing portfolio, investment objectives, risk tolerance, liquidity needs and investment time horizon Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 8 of 9

9 Wells Fargo Advisors is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, but is not licensed or registered with any financial services regulatory authority outside of the U.S. Non-U.S. residents who maintain U.S.-based financial services account(s) with Wells Fargo Advisors may not be afforded certain protections conferred by legislation and regulations in their country of residence in respect of any investments, investment transactions or communications made with Wells Fargo Advisors. Wells Fargo Advisors is a trade name used by Wells Fargo Clearing Services, LLC and Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network, LLC, Members SIPC, separate registered broker-dealers and non-bank affiliates of Wells Fargo & Company. CAR Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 9 of 9