Market Volatility May Create Opportunity

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1 WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE George Rusnak, CFA Co-Head of Global Fixed Income Strategy Market Volatility May Create Opportunity February 12, 2018» In early February, a strong employment and wage inflation report sent the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to its highest level in four years.» Equity-market volatility also has risen, due to technical factors and concern over rising interest rates. What it may mean for investors» We believe that this is an appropriate time to rebalance portfolios to ensure they align with investors long-term goals and risk tolerance and to broadly and globally diversify holdings across asset classes.» Volatility also can offer tactical market opportunities when markets overcorrect. We suggest that investors buy quality securities during market dips. This past week s volatility in the stock and bond markets has led many investors to question what they should do. We believe that markets experienced abnormally low volatility in 2017 and that investors should expect a more normal resumption of volatility in In today s report, we discuss the recent rise in volatility and interest rates, and we outline what we recommend investors do in response to the changing market landscape. What happened and why? Asset Group Overviews Equities... 4 Fixed Income... 5 Real Assets... 6 Alternative Investments... 7 Since the beginning of 2018, the 10-year Treasury yield has increased by approximately 40 basis points, and interest-rate volatility has risen to levels we haven t experienced since April 2017 (Chart 1). 1 We believe that this recent increase in rates and volatility is caused by bond-market participants recognizing that economic growth may be stronger than anticipated, which may result in the Federal Reserve (Fed) raising short-term rates more aggressively than previously was planned. We believe that the Fed will continue raising interest rates in 2018, yet we only expect a mild pickup in inflation. We do not expect a significant 2018 increase in intermediate- and long-term rates from current levels. 1 One hundred basis points equal 1% Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 1 of 9

2 Market Volatility May Create Opportunity Chart 1. MOVE Index shows rising volatility in the U.S. bond market today Index level Source: Bloomberg, February 7, The MOVE Index is the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate Index, which is composed of over-the counter options for Treasury securities maturing in 2-30 years. It is a yield-curve-weighted index of the normalized implied volatility on 1-month Treasury options which are weighted on the 2, 5, 10, and 30 year contracts. Do we expect this volatility to continue? We have been in a low volatility and declining interest-rate environment for a number of years. We expect both yields and volatility to increase as the markets digest strong economic growth and higher rates. As noted, we believe that bond-market volatility will rise this year, which may present opportunities for active investors. However, we expect that interest-rate increases in 2018 will only be mild from current levels, given the low inflationary and global bond market conditions anticipated. We continue to closely monitor inflation data and expectations, because they are a critical component to our forecast for mildly increasing interest rates. What should investors do today? We believe that investors should focus on three key themes during this turbulent time in market volatility. Rebalance portfolios to prepare for higher volatility this year. It is important to avoid paralysis during periods of market volatility. Rebalancing portfolios can enable investors to ensure they continue to follow their longterm investment plan. For fixed income, we recommend that investors broadly and globally diversify assets, pursue defensive portfolio structures (such as higher-coupon premium bonds), and raise average quality in fixedincome portfolios Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 2 of 9

3 Market Volatility May Create Opportunity Capitalize on opportunities if markets overcorrect during this volatility. Sometimes, markets may overcorrect in certain areas. This can present opportunities for tactical portfolio adjustments. In January, we reduced our exposure to the intermediate part of the yield curve (to evenweight, or neutral) in anticipation of rising rates. We currently favor a more balanced approach to the fixed-income yield curve. We are neutral on duration, and recommend diversifying holdings broadly along the curve. Avoid investing complacency by active portfolio evaluation. It is important during good and bad times to be diligent about investing. We continue to believe that both high yield and international developed-market bonds present challenges to investors going forward and recommend an underweight exposure to these fixed-income sectors. While recent interest-rate and equity-market volatility have been concerning to some investors, we believe that it is important to prepare for a higher-volatility environment this year. Given this expected change, we believe that investors should actively rebalance their portfolios, buy quality holdings on market dips, broadly and globally diversify holdings across asset classes, and capitalize on market opportunities as they present themselves Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 3 of 9

4 EQUITIES Sean Lynch, CFA Co-Head of Global Equity Strategy U.S. Small Cap Equities U.S. Large Cap Equities U.S. Mid Cap Equities Developed Market Ex-U.S. Equities Emerging Market Equities International earnings remain strong Anchor your views on the fundamentals, is a theme that Wells Fargo Investment Institute has reiterated frequently over the past volatile week in global equity markets. Domestic earnings remain strong, and we are seeing positive revisions across all market capitalization sectors. The same can be said for international earnings. This week, we discuss earnings revisions across the international developed and emerging markets. Earnings revisions are slightly different than gauging the number of companies beating expectations. Revisions give us a more forward look into the outlook of individual companies. Using data from Bloomberg, we recently searched the number of revisions that have been made year to date (YTD). As the chart below shows, in international developed markets, 73% of companies have had positive revisions since the start of In the emerging world, this number is a bit higher, at 77%. This data makes it easy to draw the conclusion that the earnings outlook remains positive in these two market areas. We still favor domestic equities over international equities. Yet, we are not negative on international equities, and we believe that investors should remain at their targeted exposure. In fact, there may be more upside to our targets than there is a risk of a big drawdown in international equities. There are risks we are watching, such as the global rise in interest rates, potential changes in global central-banks policies, and a potential slowdown in China s economy. As it relates to one key factor, earnings, the outlook is positive and should help to support these markets at current levels.» Earnings revisions give us a more forward look at the outlook of individual companies. The data signals that the earnings outlook remains positive for companies in international developed and emerging markets.» We believe that investors should remain at their targeted exposure for international equities. There may be more upside to our targets than there is a risk of a big drawdown. Earnings revisions of companies in international equity markets year to date Percent of companies with revisions in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 77% Total positive revisions Source: Bloomberg; February 7, % Total negative revisions Percent of companies with revisions in the MSCI EAFE Index 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 73% Total positive revisions 27% Total negative revisions 2018 Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 4 of 9

5 FIXED INCOME Brian Rehling, CFA Co-Head of Global Fixed Income Strategy Bond move not as big as it felt Underweight High Yield Taxable Fixed Income Underweight Developed Market Ex.-U.S. Fixed Income U.S. Short Term Taxable Fixed Income U.S. Long Term Taxable Fixed Income Emerging Market Fixed Income U.S. bond yields have been trending higher since the beginning of In early February, a strong employment and wage inflation report sent the 10-year Treasury yield to its highest level in four years. While yields have been rising, the recent increase in yields has been well behaved, devoid of bond-market panic, and well within normal historical bond-yield movements. The chart below looks at 30-day movements in the 10-year Treasury yield from 2009 to today. The black lines represent one standard-deviation move, while the green lines represent two standard-deviation moves. 2 In January 2009, the 10-year Treasury yield traded as high as 2.86 percent. This level was not dissimilar to last week s 10-year Treasury yield levels. Over the study s nine-year time period, 10-year Treasury yields experienced many sharp increases and decreases. While the most recent yield increase has been meaningful, it does not even make the top 10 biggest 30-day moves over this time period. The bottom line is that the recent yield increase, while meaningful, is far from extraordinary. While market volatility has risen from last year s extremely low levels, we regularly experience bond-market volatility in both directions. While near-term risks are to the upside for yields, we do not believe that we have entered a new higher-yield regime. We expect that systemic issues likely will conspire to keep rates relatively contained over the next decade. These factors include an aging demographic, high government debt levels, low productivity growth, and relatively low international bond yields.» It is important to plan for potential risks in fixed-income markets, even as we anticipate only gradually rising interest rates.» We favor a neutral duration profile within bond allocations across the yield curve.» We recommend that investors upgrade their fixed-income credit profiles, favoring investment-grade-rated debt. Thirty-day change in 10-year Treasury yield: 2009 to today U.S. Taxable Investment Grade Fixed Income Change in yield U.S. Intermediate Term Taxable Fixed Income Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Source: Bloomberg; February 7, Standard deviation is a measure of volatility. It reflects the degree of variability surrounding the outcome of an investment decision; the higher the standard deviation, the greater the risk Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 5 of 9

6 REAL ASSETS Austin Pickle, CFA Investment Strategy Analyst Success breeds a disregard for the possibility of failure. -- Hyman Minsky Record oil production Underweight Commodities Private Real Estate Overweight Public Real Estate Last week certainly was eventful. The 2018 Winter Olympics began, stocks ended their record streak without a 5% drawdown, 10-year Treasury yields reached their highest level in four years, and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX ) more than doubled in one day. 3 What may have been lost in the noise of these events was the fact that another (and in our eyes, more impressive) record was broken. U.S. crude-oil production hit a historical high of million barrels per day. In doing so, it broke a 47-year-old record. This production surge was largely in response to WTI 4 (West Texas Intermediate) oil prices that spiked from a 2017 low of $42 to a recent high of $66. The reflex of oil companies (and countries) to overproduce as prices spike is strong. That is one example of why we expect oil prices to remain range-bound over the next five years (or more). The subsequent flood of supply that results each time prices rise tends to cap price rallies and keep them within a range. We expect that long-term range for WTI oil prices over the next five years (or more) to be $30 - $60.» Last week, U.S. oil production hit a new record of million barrels per day.» We expect WTI oil prices to spend the majority of the time over the next five years (or more) within a $30-$60 range. U.S. crude oil production U.S. crude oil production 9 U.S. crude oil production (million barrels per day) Sources: Bloomberg, Energy Information Administration, Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Weekly data: January 7, 1983 February 2, (The VIX is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 Index (SPX) option prices.) 4 West Texas Intermediate is the grade of crude oil used as a benchmark in oil pricing 2018 Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 6 of 9

7 ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS Alex Hambacher Global Alternative Investment Strategist Private Equity Hedge Funds-Macro Hedge Funds-Event Driven Overweight Hedge Funds-Relative Value Overweight Hedge Funds-Equity Hedge Alternative investments, such as hedge funds, private equity, private debt and private real estate funds are not suitable for all investors and are only open to accredited or qualified investors within the meaning of U.S. securities laws. Companies remaining private for longer The theme of late-stage venture companies remaining private for longer has been circulating for several years. In fact, the median time to an initial public offering (IPO) has more than doubled since 2000 from 3.2 to 7.7 years. 5 By remaining private longer, companies can remain in an insulated environment and avoid the pressure of quarterly earnings notifications that could impede the ability to achieve scale. The growth in the number of these companies, coupled with the fact that they are staying private much longer and becoming more valuable as a result, has led to private-market investments becoming increasingly commonplace in portfolios. This is particularly so for institutional investors and sophisticated high-net-worth individuals. In order to facilitate remaining private for longer, Series D rounds or later rounds of equity and venture debt have increased significantly. As the charts below indicate, since 2010, aggregate dollars raised for these portions of the capital structure have risen by 640% and 170%, respectively. Typically, at this latter stage in a company s life cycle, firms can attract institutional, strategic or qualified individual investors willing to participate in the remaining upside potential as the company builds scale to support its exit strategy. Although IPOs often attract the most attention, the exit through a sale to a strategic partner or buyout by a private equity firm can lead to attractive investment returns. Further adding credence to the long-term attractiveness of this investment opportunity, the Cambridge Associates U.S. Growth Equity Index has outperformed small, mid-cap, large-cap and global equities over the 10-year period ending on June 30, » In 2017, IPO activity globally remained relatively slow compared to previous years continuing the trend of companies remaining private for longer and deal sizes increasing. 7» For investors who qualify, opportunities exist to invest in late-stage private companies that can offer diversification with the potential for returns that can be higher than those of global equities. Deal volume: Venture debt deals and Series D or later deals $20 Bn $18 Bn $16 Bn $14 Bn $12 Bn $10 Bn $8 Bn $6 Bn $4 Bn $2 Bn $0 Bn Venture Debt Deal Volume $45 Bn $40 Bn $35 Bn $30 Bn $25 Bn $20 Bn $15 Bn $10 Bn $5 Bn $0 Bn Series D or Later Venture Deal Volume Aggregate deal volume of venture debt deals ($ billion) Aggregate deal volume of Series D or later ($ billion) Source: Preqin, February 6, Past performance is no guarantee of future results. An index is unmanaged and not available for direct investment. 5 Harvard University, 2017 IPO Report, May 25, Cambridge Associates, Buyout and Growth Equity Index and Selected Benchmark Statistics, October 2017, page Pitchbook, Beware of the Rise of the Zombiecorn, October 23, Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 7 of 9

8 Risks Considerations Each asset class has its own risk and return characteristics. The level of risk associated with a particular investment or asset class generally correlates with the level of return the investment or asset class might achieve. Stock markets, especially foreign markets, are volatile. Stock values may fluctuate in response to general economic and market conditions, the prospects of individual companies, and industry sectors. Foreign investing has additional risks including those associated with currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, and different accounting standards. These risks are heightened in emerging markets. Small- and mid-cap stocks are generally more volatile, subject to greater risks and are less liquid than large company stocks. Bonds are subject to market, interest rate, price, credit/default, liquidity, inflation and other risks. Prices tend to be inversely affected by changes in interest rates. High yield (junk) bonds have lower credit ratings and are subject to greater risk of default and greater principal risk. The commodities markets are considered speculative, carry substantial risks, and have experienced periods of extreme volatility. Investing in a volatile and uncertain commodities market may cause a portfolio to rapidly increase or decrease in value which may result in greater share price volatility. Real estate has special risks including the possible illiquidity of underlying properties, credit risk, interest rate fluctuations and the impact of varied economic conditions. Alternative investments, such as hedge funds, private equity/private debt and private real estate funds, are speculative and involve a high degree of risk that is suitable only for those investors who have the financial sophistication and expertise to evaluate the merits and risks of an investment in a fund and for which the fund does not represent a complete investment program. They entail significant risks that can include losses due to leveraging or other speculative investment practices, lack of liquidity, volatility of returns, restrictions on transferring interests in a fund, potential lack of diversification, absence and/or delay of information regarding valuations and pricing, complex tax structures and delays in tax reporting, less regulation and higher fees than mutual funds. Hedge fund, private equity, private debt and private real estate fund investing involves other material risks including capital loss and the loss of the entire amount invested. A fund's offering documents should be carefully reviewed prior to investing. Hedge fund strategies, such as Equity Hedge, Event Driven, Macro and Relative Value, may expose investors to the risks associated with the use of short selling, leverage, derivatives and arbitrage methodologies. Short sales involve leverage and theoretically unlimited loss potential since the market price of securities sold short may continuously increase. The use of leverage in a portfolio varies by strategy. Leverage can significantly increase return potential but create greater risk of loss. Derivatives generally have implied leverage which can magnify volatility and may entail other risks such as market, interest rate, credit, counterparty and management risks. Arbitrage strategies expose a fund to the risk that the anticipated arbitrage opportunities will not develop as anticipated, resulting in potentially reduced returns or losses to the fund. Definitions Investments in new and emerging companies are usually classified as venture capital. Growth capital typically refers to minority investments in companies with more established operations than venture capital investments, but with faster growth prospects and less leverage than traditional buyouts. Key attributes of these investments include involving minority stakes in early-stage companies; company may be nearing profitability or still building-out management team and corporate infrastructure. These strategies are subject to technology and market risks, among others. Series D+ rounds are commonly known as late-stage rounds, and generally fall into the time when a company has a defined business model that has taken hold, is making significant revenues and is looking to expand at a large scale. The Cambridge Associates' benchmarks are reported on a one-quarter lag from the end of the performance quarter due to the reporting time frame of private investments fund managers. The Cambridge U.S. Growth Equity Index is a horizon calculation based on data compiled from 223 US growth equity funds, including fully liquidated partnerships, formed between 1986 and The pooled horizon return is net of fees, expenses, and carried interest. The index has limitations (some of which are typical to other widely used indices) and cannot be used to predict performance of a fund. These limitations include survivorship bias (the returns of the index may not be representative of all private equity funds in the universe because of the tendency of lower performing funds to leave the index); heterogeneity (not all private equity funds are alike or comparable to one another, and the index may not accurately reflect the performance of a described style); and limited data (many funds do not report to indices, and the index may omit funds, the inclusion of which might significantly affect the performance quoted. General Disclosures Global Investment Strategy (GIS) is a division of Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Inc. (WFII). WFII is a registered investment adviser and wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A., a bank affiliate of Wells Fargo & Company. The information in this report was prepared by Global Investment Strategy. Opinions represent GIS opinion as of the date of this report and are for general information purposes only and are not intended to predict or guarantee the future performance of any individual security, market sector or the markets generally. GIS does not undertake to advise you of any change in its opinions or the information contained in this report. Wells Fargo & Company affiliates may issue reports or have opinions that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, this report. The information contained herein constitutes general information and is not directed to, designed for, or individually tailored to, any particular investor or potential investor. This report is not intended to be a client-specific suitability analysis or recommendation, an offer to participate in any investment, or a recommendation to buy, hold or sell securities. Do not use this report as the sole basis for investment 2018 Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 8 of 9

9 decisions. Do not select an asset class or investment product based on performance alone. Consider all relevant information, including your existing portfolio, investment objectives, risk tolerance, liquidity needs and investment time horizon. Wells Fargo Advisors is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, but is not licensed or registered with any financial services regulatory authority outside of the U.S. Non-U.S. residents who maintain U.S.-based financial services account(s) with Wells Fargo Advisors may not be afforded certain protections conferred by legislation and regulations in their country of residence in respect of any investments, investment transactions or communications made with Wells Fargo Advisors. Wells Fargo Advisors is a trade name used by Wells Fargo Clearing Services, LLC and Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network, LLC, Members SIPC, separate registered broker-dealers and non-bank affiliates of Wells Fargo & Company. CAR Wells Fargo Investment Institute. All rights reserved. Page 9 of 9

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