CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE Market Perspective
|
|
- Randall Booker
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Market Perspective Bull Market Intact as Healthy Reset Continues May 9, 2018 Investment and Insurance Products: Are not FDIC or any other Government Agency Insured Are not Bank Guaranteed May Lose Value Keith Lerner, CFA, CMT Managing Director, Chief Market Strategist 2018 SunTrust Banks, Inc. SunTrust is a federally registered service mark of SunTrust Banks, Inc. 1
2 Bull Market Intact as Healthy Reset Continues Key Takeaways Our work continues to suggest the consolidation phase that has been underway since January is within the context of an ongoing bull market. bulls and the bears alike, the price pattern we are seeing is very consistent with recent history. Indeed, when looking at the sharp Following other recent sharp corrections, it took an average of 10 months for stocks to reclaim the high set prior to the pullback. This transition period has provided a healthy reset of price, sentiment and valuation. Nevertheless, a strong corporate profits season has been offset by concerns that we are past the peak of economic momentum and earnings growth, while the Fed is gradually removing accommodation. Our view is these concerns appear overdone. The weight of the evidence suggests moderating stock returns with higher volatility, not the end of the bull market. Our work continues to suggest the tug-of-war that has been unfolding since January is within the context of an ongoing bull market. The action over the past few months has served to provide a healthy reset of price, sentiment, and valuation. Although this process continues to frustrate the corrections in 2010, 2011, and 2015/2016, it took an average of about 10 months (range of 6 to 14 months) for stocks to reclaim the high set prior to the pullback (slide 4). In the interim, a battle between fear and greed has been normal and punctuated by several sharp price moves back and forth before eventually climbing higher. Moreover, stocks have tended to trade in a choppy fashion during mid-term election years, with most of the market s gains typically occurring in the fourth quarter (slide 5). From a fundamental perspective, it may be disappointing to see the market not react better to what has been a very strong corporate earnings season, but context is important. The S&P 500 entered this year with a record-tying, nine-straight calendar years of positive total returns. Further, after a robust 2017, stocks started off 2018 with strong gains in January, and the market simply became overextended on a short-term basis. This sideways period is allowing fundamentals to catch up with prices. Nevertheless, the positive corporate earnings season has been overshadowed as some investors are concerned that we are past the peak of economic momentum and earnings growth, while the Fed is gradually removing accommodation. Although this is leading to greater volatility, it does not necessarily imply an end to the bull market though moderating gains are more likely (consistent with our view coming into 2018). Indeed, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a survey of US manufacturing activity, reached a cycle high in February. 2
3 Bull Market Intact as Healthy Reset Continues Importantly, following past peaks in PMI levels, the economy and stock market have expanded for almost three years on average (slide 6). Moreover, more than 90% of the countries we track are currently showing expanding manufacturing trends, which indicates firm and broad-based growth. said, with stocks trading near a 16x forward multiple, down from 18.5x in MASTER January, TITLE we think most of STYLE the valuation compression is now behind us. We also expect global growth to firm over the coming months. The first quarter was weighed down by one-off factors, such as labor strikes in France, extreme weather in the UK, and a flu outbreak in Germany. The US should also bounce back from a softer first quarter, which has been a recurring pattern over recent years. That said, the fundamental battle between the prospects of a better economy/earnings and higher interest rates persists. While there is not a perfect comparison to the current environment, there have been six calendar years since the 1950s where S&P 500 earnings growth was strong (>15% as expected in 2018) and shortterm interest rates and the 10-year US Treasury yield rose from the previous year. The average total return for the S&P 500 during those calendar years was 12% (with wide variations). Notably, in every year, with the exception of 1999, price-to-earnings ratios compressed. This makes sense in that strong earnings are also being discounted back with a higher interest rate. Thus, while robust earnings should support stocks grinding higher this year, the contraction in valuation is consistent with history (slide 7). That Further, when looking at just the relationship between the stock market and a rising 10-year US Treasury yield, stocks have risen in 12 of the 15 periods we studied, or 80% of the time since the 1950s (slide 8). This makes sense so much as higher rates often coincide with an expanding economy and earnings. Finally, our work suggest the concerns related to peak earnings growth is overdone. Naturally, stocks should see a one-time lift in the rate of profit growth following a tax cut. However, forward earnings estimates just reached another record high, and corporate guidance remains strong. Indeed, the percentage of companies exceeding analysts earnings estimates this quarter is the highest in 15 years (slide 9). In addition, 77% of companies have exceeded sales estimates, and sales growth is coming in at 8.4%, which is the best rate since Moreover, 56% of companies are seeing their earnings estimates revised higher, which is the strongest pace in several years with the exception of the two months following the tax cuts (slide 10). As the economy continues to move forward, earnings should follow suit. Bottom Line So far, what we are seeing following the sharp correction from the January high is very consistent with history and the normal ebb and flow of a bull market. The stock market is going through a digestion period after very strong gains. History suggests this is a process that takes time. The good news is the fundamental drivers of the market including rising profits and solid global growth remain intact. Therefore, we expect the bull market to eventually reassert itself. 3
4 It Has Taken an Average of 10 Months for Stocks to Reclaim the High Set Prior to Correction Following the sharp corrections in 2010, 2011, and 2015/2016, it took an average of about 10 months (range of 6 to 14 months) for stocks to reclaim the high set prior to the pullback. In the interim, a battle between fear and greed has been normal and punctuated by several sharp price moves back and forth before eventually climbing higher S&P months to recapture former high 3.5 months since January high months to recapture former high 10 months to recapture former high Data Source: FactSet, SunTrust IAG 4
5 Stock Returns Tend to Be Back-End Loaded During Mid-Term Election Years Although we recommend not overemphasizing seasonal tendencies, it is notable that during mid-term election years, stocks have tended to trade in a choppy fashion, with most of the gains occurring in the fourth quarter S&P 500: Average Path During Mid-Term Election Years 96 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Data Source: Bloomberg, SunTrust IAG 5
6 Peak Economic Momentum Does Not Imply End of the Cycle The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a survey of manufacturing activity, reached a cycle high in February. Following past peaks in PMI levels, the economy and stock market have expanded for almost three years on average Months to Recession After PMI Peak Months to Market Peak After PMI Peak Months to Recession Average Months to Market Peak Average 40 Average = 33 Mos 40 Average = 34 Mos Data Source: FactSet, SunTrust IAG 6
7 Historical Market Performance During Strong Earnings Years and Rising Short- and Long-Term Rates Markets are undergoing a tug-of-war between strong earnings and rising rates. While robust earnings growth should allow stocks to grind higher this year, one should not expect valuations to expand; since the 1950s, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio compressed in every period, except 1999, in years that saw strong earnings growth coupled with rising interest rates. Year S&P 500 Total Return (Calendar Year) S&P 500 Earnings Growth (Calendar Year Change) Change in Trailing P/E (Calendar Year Change) Change in Federal Funds Rate Change in 10-Year US Treasury Yield % 31% (0.4) % 17% (1.5) % 27% (6.6) % 21% (0.5) % 18% (2.9) % 17% Average 12% 22% (1.9) Screen criteria: S&P Earnings growth >15% and Federal Funds rate and 10-year US Treasury yield rising >25 basis points from end of previous year to end of current year. Data Source: FactSet, St. Louis Fed, SunTrust IAG 7
8 Stocks During Rising 10-Year US Treasury Rate Periods When looking at just the relationship between the stock market and a rising 10-year US Treasury yield, stocks have risen in 12 of the 15 periods we studied, or 80% of the time since the 1950s. This makes sense so much as higher rates tend to coincide with an expanding economy. Starting 10-Yr Treasury Yield (%) Ending 10-Yr Treasury Yield (%) Change in 10-Yr Treasury Yield (%) S&P 500 Annualized Total Return (%) Rising Rate Periods 4/30/ /31/ /30/1958 1/31/ /31/1961 8/31/ /31/1967 5/31/ /31/1971 9/30/ /31/1976 2/29/ /30/1980 9/30/ /30/1983 5/31/ /31/1986 9/30/ /30/ /30/ /30/1998 1/31/ /31/2003 6/30/ /31/ /31/ /31/ /31/ /31/2016 4/30/ Average Screen criteria: Periods where the 10-year US Treasury yield rose at least 150 basis points based on monthly data Data Source: Morningstar Direct, SunTrust IAG 8
9 As Stocks Consolidate, Earnings Estimates Continue to Rise Naturally, stocks should see a onetime lift in the rate of profit growth following a tax cut. However, forward earnings estimates have recently made a new record high S&P 500 (L) S&P 500 vs. Earnings Forward Earnings Estimates $180 $ $ $ '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 $100 Data Source: FactSet, SunTrust IAG 9
10 1Q-03 4Q-03 3Q-04 2Q-05 1Q-06 4Q-06 3Q-07 2Q-08 1Q-09 4Q-09 3Q-10 2Q-11 1Q-12 4Q-12 3Q-13 2Q-14 1Q-15 4Q-15 3Q-16 2Q-17 1Q-18 1Q-03 4Q-03 3Q-04 2Q-05 1Q-06 4Q-06 3Q-07 2Q-08 1Q-09 4Q-09 3Q-10 2Q-11 1Q-12 4Q-12 3Q-13 2Q-14 1Q-15 4Q-15 3Q-16 2Q-17 1Q-18 The Percentage of Companies Exceeding Sales & Earnings Estimates Is the Strongest in 15 Years 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% S&P 500: Quarterly Sales Beat Rates (%) S&P 500: Quarterly Earnings Beat Rates (%) Average 77% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Average 78% 0% 0% Data Source: FactSet, SunTrust IAG 10
11 Corporate Earnings Estimates Head Upward More than half of the companies in the S&P 500 have seen their earnings estimates rise recently, which is the strongest pace in several years with the exception of the two months following the tax cuts. As the economy continues to move forward, earnings should follow suit 90% 80% 70% 60% % of S&P Companies That Are Seeing Earnings Estimates Revised Higher 56% 50% Average 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 May-18 Data Source: FactSet, SunTrust IAG 11
12 Important Disclosures Advisory managed account programs entail risks, including possible loss of principal and may not be suitable for all investors. Please speak to your advisor to request a firm brochure which includes program details, including risks, fees and expenses. SunTrust Private Wealth Management is a marketing name used by SunTrust Bank, SunTrust Banks Trust Company (Cayman) Limited, SunTrust Delaware Trust Company, SunTrust Investment Services, Inc., SunTrust Advisory Services, Inc., and GFO Advisory Services, LLC which are each affiliates of SunTrust Banks, Inc. Banking and trust products and services, including investment management products and services, are provided by SunTrust Bank and SunTrust Delaware Trust Company. Securities and insurance (including annuities) are offered by SunTrust Investment Services, Inc., a SEC registered broker-dealer, member FINRA, SIPC, and a licensed insurance agency. Investment advisory services are offered by SunTrust Advisory Services, Inc., a SEC registered investment adviser. GFO Advisory Services, LLC is a SEC registered investment adviser that provides investment advisory services to a group of private investment funds and other non-investment advisory services to affiliates. While this information is believed to be accurate, SunTrust Banks, Inc., including its affiliates, does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of, or otherwise endorse these analyses or market data. The opinions and information contained herein have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but SunTrust Investment Services, Inc. (STIS) makes no representation or guarantee as to their timeliness, accuracy or completeness or for their fitness for any particular purpose. The information contained herein does not purport to be a complete analysis of any security, company, or industry involved. This material is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Opinions and information expressed herein are subject to change without notice. STIS and/or its affiliates, including your Advisor, may have issued materials that are inconsistent with or may reach different conclusions than those represented in this commentary, and all opinions and information are believed to be reflective of judgments and opinions as of the date that material was originally published. STIS is under no obligation to ensure that other materials are brought to the attention of any recipient of this commentary. The information and material presented in this commentary are for general information only and do not specifically address individual investment objectives, financial situations or the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this commentary. Investing in any security or investment strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for you, and you may want to consult a financial advisor. Nothing in this material constitutes individual investment, legal or tax advice. Investments involve risk and an investor may incur either profits or losses. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance. STIS/STAS shall accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of this material, nor shall STIS/STAS treat any recipient of this material as a customer or client simply by virtue of the receipt of this material. The information herein is for persons residing in the United States of America only and is not intended for any person in any other jurisdiction. The information contained in this material is produced and copyrighted by SunTrust Banks, Inc. and any unauthorized use, duplication, redistribution or disclosure is prohibited by law. STIS/STAS s officers, employees, agents and/or affiliates may have positions in securities, options, rights, or warrants mentioned or discussed in this material. SunTrust Bank and its affiliates do not accept fiduciary responsibility for all banking and investment account types offered. Please consult with your SunTrust representative to determine whether SunTrust and its affiliates have agreed to accept fiduciary responsibility for your account(s) and if you have completed the documentation necessary to establish a fiduciary relationship with SunTrust Bank or an affiliate. Additional information regarding account types subject to DOL and important disclosures may be found at S&P 500 Index is comprised of 500 widely-held securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. An investment cannot be made directly into an index. CN EXP
Market Perspective. Our View After the Snapback
Market Perspective Our View After the Snapback January 22, 2019 Investment and Insurance Products: Are not FDIC or any other Government Agency Insured Are not Bank Guaranteed May Lose Value Keith Lerner,
More informationCLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE Market Perspective
Market Perspective Global Earnings Remain Supportive November 8, 2017 Keith Lerner, CFA, CMT Managing Director, Chief Market Strategist 2017 SunTrust Banks, Inc. SunTrust is a federally registered service
More informationOutlook Intact, Despite Tariff Risk
Steel 232 232 Retaliation China 301 301 Retaliation (E) Tax Cuts Spending Repatriated Profits (E) M A R K E T P E R S P E C T I V E Keith Lerner, CFA, CMT Managing Director, Chief Market Strategist SunTrust
More informationSunTrust Advisory Services, Inc. Market Perspective The Pain Trade. Keith Lerner, CFA, CMT Director, Chief Market Strategist March 6, 2017
SunTrust Advisory Services, Inc. Market Perspective The Pain Trade Keith Lerner, CFA, CMT Director, Chief Market Strategist March 6, 2017 The Pain Trade Far more money has been lost by investors preparing
More informationMTA Educational Web Series
MTA Educational Web Series One Practitioner s Guide to Combining Macro, Fundamentals and Technical Analysis Presented by: Keith Lerner, CFA, CMT Chief Market Strategist SunTrust Bank July 2014 Outline:
More informationFIVE FORECASTERS: FEW WARNING SIGNS
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY January 25 2016 FIVE FORECASTERS: FEW WARNING SIGNS Burt White Chief Investment Officer, LPL Financial; Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist, LPL Financial; Barry
More informationOUT OF THE WOODS? COMMENTARY STRONG FUNDAMENTALS KEY TAKEAWAYS LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET. February
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY February 20 2018 OUT OF THE WOODS? John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS Stocks
More informationEconomic and Market Outlook
Economic and Market Outlook Fourth Quarter 2018 Investment Products: Not FDIC Insured No Bank Guarantee May Lose Value Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Financial term and index definitions
More informationTechnical Analysis: Market Insight
Technical Analysis: Market Insight October 1987 vs. October 2017 Today (Oct. 19, 2017) marks the 30 th anniversary of Black Monday a global market crash during which the S&P 500 dropped 20% in one day.
More informationIMPRESSIVE EARNINGS SEASON
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY May 14 2018 IMPRESSIVE EARNINGS SEASON John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS
More informationWELCOME TO THE FOURTH QUARTER
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY IBG FINANCIAL ADVISORS October 3 2016 WELCOME TO THE FOURTH QUARTER Burt White Chief Investment Officer, LPL Financial Ryan Detrick, CMT Senior Market Strategist,
More informationA VERY GOOD SIX MONTHS FOR SMALL CAPS. Russell 2000, Relative Performance vs. Russell Jul May Mar Jun 2014.
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY il 20 SIZING UP SMALL CAPS Burt White Chief Investment Officer, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder ket Strategist, LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS The Russell 2000 Index
More informationTMT Deep Dive 2/20/2017
60 Deep Dive 2/20/2017 Technology continues its surge as absolute and relative prices reach new highs on a cap, equal weight, and global basis. Tech remains our top ranked sector however, our sector rankings
More informationAnalyst's Notes. Argus Recommendations
Report created Jan 24, 2018 Page 1 OF 5 General Electric is one of the largest publicly traded companies in the world and is classified as a diversified industrials business. The stock is a component of
More informationEconomic and Market Outlook
Economic and Market Outlook Third Quarter 2018 Investment Products: Not FDIC Insured No Bank Guarantee May Lose Value Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Financial term and index definitions
More information2018 Investment and Economic Outlook
2018 Investment and Economic Outlook Presented 3/19/18 Jeffrey Neer, CFA Client Portfolio Manager 410-237-5592 jeffrey.neer@pnc.com 1 Monetary Policy: Key Factors Inflation U.S. U.S. Labor Market 2.4%
More informationAnalyst's Notes. Argus Recommendations
Report created Jan 12, 2018 Page 1 OF 5 JPMorgan Chase is one of world's largest diversified banking firms. The company operates a leading global corporate and investment bank and is the second-largest
More informationVolatility returns, fundamentals remain strong
Capital market insights Conversation guide February 2018 Volatility returns, fundamentals remain strong If record-low volatility and more than a year of positive monthly returns on the S&P 500 Index had
More informationMYTH BUSTING COMMENTARY MYTH 1: THE YIELD CURVE KEY TAKEAWAYS LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET. April
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY April 23 2018 MYTH BUSTING John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial Ryan Detrick, CMT Senior Market Strategist, LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS The underlying
More informationNCLGIAWC Optimizing Investment Portfolios
NCLGIAWC Optimizing Investment Portfolios Wells Fargo Securities - Fixed Income Market & Portfolio Strategy February 2017 Garret Sloan, CFA Director WFS and its investment representatives do not act as
More informationSTRONG WEEK AHEAD OF BIG WEEKEND
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY December 3 2018 STRONG WEEK AHEAD OF BIG WEEKEND John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial KEY
More informationAnalyst's Notes. Argus Recommendations
Report created Jan 17, 2018 Page 1 OF 5 Citigroup is one of world's largest banks, with global consumer banking, corporate banking, and investment banking operations. Of the largest U.S. banks, Citigroup
More informationMarket Maps. Bob Dickey, Technical Strategist, Portfolio Advisory Group. January RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group
Market Maps Bob Dickey, Technical Strategist, Portfolio Advisory Group RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group All values in U.S. dollars and priced as of December 31, 2018, unless otherwise
More informationU.S. Wage Growth: Highest Since Dec-10 Jul-11. Jan-08 Jul-08. Jul-11 Jan-12. Jan-13. Jan-15. Jan-16. Jan-18. Jan-17. Jul-13. Jul-12.
WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Surprise! Inflation? March 6, 2018 Peter Donisanu Investment Strategy Analyst Key takeaways» Last month s sell-off in global equities was arguably triggered
More informationMarket Maps. Bob Dickey, Technical Strategist, Portfolio Advisory Group. March RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group
Market Maps Bob Dickey, Technical Strategist, Portfolio Advisory Group RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group All values in U.S. dollars and priced as of February 28, 2019, unless otherwise
More informationThe Young-at-Heart Economy
ECONOMIC COMMENTARY SPRING 2018 The Young-at-Heart Economy 5 REASONS WE DON T EXPECT AN ECONOMIC DOWNTURN SOON SUMMARY ANTHONY CHAN, PhD CHIEF ECONOMIST FOR CHASE Anthony is a member of the J.P. Morgan
More informationANOTHER TOUGH WEEK COMMENTARY REASSURANCE KEY TAKEAWAYS LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET. October
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY October 29 2018 ANOTHER TOUGH WEEK John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial Ryan Detrick, CMT
More informationInvestment Perspectives. From The Global Investment Committee
Investment Perspectives From The Global Investment Committee Global Risk Aversion Reached Extreme Levels Morgan Stanley Standardized Global Risk Demand Index As of October 15, 2014 Complacent Extreme Fear
More informationThe Corporate Profit Margin Debate Can profitability be sustained?
For Financial Advisor and Current Client Use Only The Corporate Profit Margin Debate Can profitability be sustained? John Owens, CFA Investment Manager Morningstar Investment Services Morningstar Investment
More informationYIELD CURVE INVERSION: A CLEAR BUT UNLIKELY DANGER
1-year minus -year UST (%) INVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMENTARY YIELD CURVE INVERSION: A CLEAR BUT UNLIKELY DANGER December 4, 17 Investors focus on the yield curve with good reason an inverted curve has historically
More informationA Compelling Case for Leveraged Loans
A Compelling Case for Leveraged Loans EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In the current market environment, there are a number of compelling reasons to invest in leveraged loans. In a situation where most assets are trading
More informationCommercial Real Estate Outlook June Must Own Property Names to Buy During Interest Rate Fears
Jonathan Litt Founder & CEO Must Own Property Names to Buy During Interest Rate Fears REITs have sold off 9.5% since their peak in mid-may on fears of rising interest rates. Historically, sell-offs related
More informationWhat to Consider for Reserve Governance IDENTIFY KEY QUESTIONS AND CONSTRAINTS BUILD INVESTMENT FRAMEWORK
Association Specialty Practice Managing Reserves When Cash Flows are Uneven EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Many associations struggle with issues surrounding asset allocation in light of their complex liquidity and
More informationU.S. Equities: Navigating a Slow Growth Environment
SITUATION ANALYSIS U.S. Equities: Navigating a Slow Growth Environment Executive summary Equities ended first quarter by posting lackluster results largely due to economic uncertainty and heightened geopolitical
More informationMarket Maps. Bob Dickey, Technical Strategist, Portfolio Advisory Group. April RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group
Market Maps Bob Dickey, Technical Strategist, Portfolio Advisory Group RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group All values in U.S. dollars and priced as of March 29, 2018, unless otherwise noted
More informationFOURTH QUARTER EARNINGS SEASON
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY KEY TAKEAWAYS We expect a solid fourth quarter earnings season and believe a 14 16% year-over-year increase in S&P 5 earnings is achievable. Economic surprises, strong
More informationFIRST QUARTER EARNINGS PREVIEW
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY KEY TAKEAWAYS The new tax law, solid economic growth globally, robust manufacturing activity, and a weak U.S. dollar set up another potentially strong earnings season.
More informationAnalyst's Notes. Argus Recommendations
Report created Nov 22, 2017 Page 1 OF 5 Based in London, BP is one of the world's five super majors. BP's operations are fully integrated, consisting of upstream, transportation, trading, refining, petrochemicals,
More informationof RBC Dominion Securities Your Money, Well Managed October, 2013 Professional Wealth Management Since 1901
of RBC Dominion Securities Your Money, Well Managed October, 2013 Global Economic Overview....Steady as we go. European Comeback US Federal Reserve Tapering Talk US Government Shutdown Market Recap..........The
More informationWILL EIGHT BE GREAT FOR THE BULL?
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY March 14 2016 WILL EIGHT BE GREAT FOR THE BULL? Burt White Chief Investment Officer, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist, LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS
More informationMarket Bulletin. 2Q18 earnings update: Tug of war. July 27, In brief. Politics vs. fundamentals
Market Bulletin July 27, 2018 2Q18 earnings update: Tug of war In brief 2018 has seen the stock market struggle to find direction, as political risks and robust earnings growth have offset one another,
More informationGS Global ECS Credit Strategy Research. March 31, Alberto Gallo, CFA Goldman, Sachs & Co
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Goldman Sachs Research The CLO market shows signs of life GS Global ECS Credit Strategy Research March 31, 11 Alberto Gallo, CFA Goldman, Sachs & Co. 1-917-33-31 alberto.gallo@gs.com
More informationMAY 2018 Capital Markets Update
MAY 2018 Market commentary U.S. ECONOMICS The U.S. added 223,000 jobs to payrolls in May, well above the consensus estimate of 180,000 and the expansion average of around 200,000. Sector job gains were
More informationMarkets catch-up to the Fed. Market Insight
Markets catch-up to the Fed The shift higher and steepening in the US Treasury yield curve since the turn of the year primarily reflects the market catching up with the Federal Reserve s (Fed) guidance
More informationINVESTMENT TIPS AND TECHNIQUES
INVESTMENT TIPS AND TECHNIQUES Ohio Township Association Annual Winter Conference February 2, 2018 Presented by Eileen Stanic, CTP Senior Public Funds Advisor Meeder Investment Management 1 AGENDA Cash
More informationShort Volatility Trading with Volatility Derivatives. Russell Rhoads, CFA
Short Volatility Trading with Volatility Derivatives Russell Rhoads, CFA Disclosure Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, a person must receive
More informationINDEX PERFORMANCE HISTORY MARKET CYCLE ANALYSIS*
OVERVIEW Index Name: Helios Alpha Index Ticker: Inception Date: September 30, 2003 S&P Launch Date: March 3, 2017 Benchmark: MSCI ACWI Index INDEX PERFORMANCE HISTORY As of: October 31, 2018 DESCRIPTION
More informationLooking at a Variety of Municipal Valuation Metrics
Looking at a Variety of Municipal Valuation Metrics Muni vs. Treasuries, Corporates YEAR MUNI - TREASURY RATIO YEAR MUNI - CORPORATE RATIO 200% 80% 175% 150% 75% 70% 65% 125% Average Ratio 0% 75% 50% 60%
More informationO'Reilly Automotive, Inc. Quick Read: Weather Likely Weighed Upon Sales a Bit
EQUITY RESEARCH QUARTERLY UPDATE July 27, 2016 Stock Rating: OUTPERFORM 12-18 mo. Price Target $300.00 ORLY - NASDAQ $277.51 3-5 Yr. EPS Gr. Rate 18% 52-Wk Range $284.66-$225.12 Shares Outstanding 99.4M
More information2017 STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK:
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY KEY TAKEAWAYS We expect mid-singledigit returns for the S&P 500 in 2017, consistent with historical mid-to-late economic cycle performance. Expected mid- to high-single-digit
More informationMarket Maps. Bob Dickey, Technical Strategist, Portfolio Advisory Group. December RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group
Market Maps Bob Dickey, Technical Strategist, Portfolio Advisory Group RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group All values in U.S. dollars and priced as of market close, December 1, 2017, unless
More informationINDEX PERFORMANCE HISTORY MARKET CYCLE ANALYSIS*
Jun 09 Dec 09 Jun 10 Dec 10 Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 12 Jun 13 Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 14 Jun 15 Dec 15 Jun 16 Dec 16 Jun 17 Dec 17 Jun 18 Dec 18 Dec 07 Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08
More informationEconomic Calendar. Time CST Release Period
Desk Commentary Fixed Income & Currencies Municipal Products Municipal Markets Weekly Update Market News Despite continuing geopolitical uncertainty, equity markets managed to post consistent gains throughout
More information4Q17 Global & International Equity GLOBAL EQUITY. 10+ Years of Providing High Income Through Global Dividends
4Q17 Global & International Equity GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME FUND 10+ Years of Providing High Income Through Global Dividends A: HFQAX C: HFQCX I: HFQIX N: HFQRX S: HFQSX T: HFQTX Overall Morningstar Rating
More informationFactors Impacting Investment Opportunities. Market Environment. Agenda. Economic Update and Investment Tips
Agenda Economic Update and Investment Tips Presented to: Ohio Association of Public Treasurers June 16, 2016 Current economic factors Portfolio right-sizing Municipal securities Brokered CDs Step-up agency
More informationRyan Lewenza, CFA, CMT, Private Client Strategist September 26, 2014
Weekly Trends Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT, Private Client Strategist September 26, 214 Buying Opportunity? In recent publications we have underscored the potential for volatility to rise through the September/October
More informationINDEX PERFORMANCE HISTORY MARKET CYCLE ANALYSIS*
OVERVIEW Index Name: Helios Diversified Index Ticker: Inception Date: September 30, 2003 S&P Launch Date: March 3, 2017 : 45% MSCI ACWI / 25% BBgBarc Agg Bond / 30% Morningstar Div Alts Morningstar SecID:
More informationVietnam grew quicker than expected in 3Q
September 9, 1 Global Markets Research Economics - Vietnam Vietnam grew quicker than expected in 3Q Vietnam s economy grew.93 in the past nine months (1H: +.) as momentum in the manufacturing and services
More informationGLOBAL EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK: FAVOR U.S.; STICK WITH EM
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY KEY TAKEAWAYS U.S. economic and earnings growth continue to stand out globally and support our positive view of U.S. equities. We continue to see upside potential
More informationINDEX PERFORMANCE HISTORY MARKET CYCLE ANALYSIS*
OVERVIEW Index Name: Helios Dynamic Risk 13% Index Ticker: Inception Date: February 28, 2005 S&P Launch Date: March 3, 2017 Benchmark: 65% MSCI ACWI / 35% BBgBarc Agg Bond Morningstar SecID: F00000YYHJ
More informationAll that glitters. Gold. August 2018
All that glitters August 2018 By Richard J. Wylie, CFA Vice-President, Investment Strategy, Assante Wealth Management Investors, even well-seasoned market veterans, can be forgiven for the unease that
More informationImproved Macroeconomic Conditions Boost Consumer Sentiment to Its Highest Level in 3½-Year
ECONOMIC REPORT Business & Consumer Confidence 17 April 2018 Improved Macroeconomic Conditions Boost Consumer Sentiment to Its Highest Level in 3½-Year MIER s CSI rebounded to 3.5-year high. Underpin by
More informationCredit Sensitive Fixed Income Market Data
Credit Sensitive Fixed Income Market Data April 2013 NORTH AMERICA KEVIN FLANAGAN Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Chief Fixed Income Strategist Managing Director kevin.flanagan@morganstanley.com +1 914
More informationMoving On Up Investing in Today s Rate Environment
Moving On Up Investing in Today s Rate Environment Presented by PFM Asset Management LLC Steve Faber, Managing Director Gray Lepley, Senior Analyst, Portfolio Strategies September 18, 2018 PFM 1 Today
More informationAnalyst's Notes. Argus Recommendations
Report created Dec 29, 2011 Page 1 OF 5 United Technologies is an aerospace-industrial conglomerate whose portfolio includes Climate Control & Security (which now combines UTC Fire Security with Carrier),
More informationChartWorks. PUBLISHED BY INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS September 7, 2009
ChartWorks PUBLISHED BY INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS September 7, 2009 Technical observations of RossClark@shaw.ca Gold... couldn t be better. We ve watched patiently, monitoring the action in anticipation of
More informationJune 9 th Client Comment
Client Comment June 9 th 2017 You are receiving this email because you are a client of Nick Foglietta s and you own one or more positions in the Tactical Equity Allocation Model (TEAM Model), or you are
More informationMarket Bulletin. 4Q17 earnings update: Let s talk about taxes. January 31, In brief. Safety in earnings
Market Bulletin January 31, 2018 4Q17 earnings update: Let s talk about taxes In brief While higher volatility may be on the horizon, healthy earnings growth should prevent minor pullbacks from becoming
More informationConditions Green, HDD Stocks Red Why a Decline in Valuation Immediately Followed One of the Decade s Most Profitable Quarters.
Conditions Green, HDD Stocks Red Why a Decline in Valuation Immediately Followed One of the Decade s Most Profitable Quarters. Asia Pacific, March 2010 1 Important Disclosures Analyst Certification - The
More informationAll you need to know about the Golden Cross
All you need to know about the Golden Cross Golden Cross means market base-building to higher returns A Golden Cross is when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average on the S&P
More informationTHE CURRENCY- IRANIAN RIAL (IRR)
THE CURRENCY- IRANIAN RIAL (IRR) THE VIEW ON FX JANUARY 2018 ASSET MANAGEMENT AND PRIVATE EQUITY 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
More informationPERSPECTIVE ON MARKET VOLATILITY
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY October 15 2018 PERSPECTIVE ON MARKET VOLATILITY John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial Ryan Detrick, CMT Senior Market Strategist, LPL Financial Jeffrey
More informationTotal
The following report provides in-depth analysis into the successes and challenges of the Northcoast Tactical Growth managed ETF strategy throughout 2017, important research into the mechanics of the strategy,
More informationRussell 2000 Index Options
Interactive Brokers Webcast Russell 2000 Index Options April 20, 2016 Presented by Russell Rhoads, Senior Instructor Disclosure Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying
More informationCOMMODITIES AND A DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO
INVESTING INSIGHTS COMMODITIES AND A DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO As global commodity prices continue to linger in a protracted slump, investors in these hard assets have seen disappointing returns for several
More informationCALLABLE BONDS: FRIEND AND FOE GIOA INVESTMENT CONFERENCE George E.A. Barbar Mesirow Financial William M. Quinn, CFA FTN Financial
CALLABLE BONDS: FRIEND AND FOE GIOA INVESTMENT CONFERENCE 2017 George E.A. Barbar Mesirow Financial William M. Quinn, CFA FTN Financial GSE Callables Market Update Quick Refresh Why? and Why Not? Friend
More informationGetting ahead of the (yield) curve
Capital market insights Conversation guide May 2018 Getting ahead of the (yield) curve The yield curve has been a hot topic in the financial media recently. It is one of the best indicators of future economic
More informationNorges Bank Review 24 September 2015
Norges Bank Review 24 September 2015 A 25bp rate cut and an easing bias Frank Jullum Chief Analyst fju@danskebank.dk www.danskebank.com/research Arne Lohmann Rasmussen Chief Analyst klom@danskebank.dk
More informationTHE SKINNY. CG s Market Commentary
THE SKINNY CG s Market Commentary Third Quarter 2016 THE SKINNY Third Quarter 2016 U.S. EQUITY MARKETS ENDED SEPTEMBER WITH MIXED RESULTS. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a 0.41% loss for the month,
More informationAlphaSolutions Sector Rotation Model
AlphaSolutions Sector Rotation Model An investment model based on trending and momentum strategies Portfolio Goals Primary: Seeks long term growth of capital by investing in highranked U.S. Equity Sectors
More informationFoundations of Investing
www.edwardjones.com Member SIPC Foundations of Investing 1 5 HOW CAN I STAY ON TRACK? 4 HOW DO I GET THERE? 1 WHERE AM I TODAY? MY FINANCIAL NEEDS 3 CAN I GET THERE? 2 WHERE WOULD I LIKE TO BE? 2 Develop
More informationWeekly Market Commentary
LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Weekly Market Commentary November 18, 2014 Emerging Markets Opportunity Still Emerging Burt White Chief Investment Officer LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist
More informationInvestment Company Institute PERSPECTIVE
Investment Company Institute PERSPECTIVE Volume 2, Number 2 March 1996 MUTUAL FUND SHAREHOLDER ACTIVITY DURING U.S. STOCK MARKET CYCLES, 1944-95 by John Rea and Richard Marcis* Summary Do stock mutual
More informationU.S. Equities Quarterly Update: Uncertainty Abounds
U.S. Equities Quarterly Update: Uncertainty Abounds Executive summary Uncertainty and volatility have returned to the marketplace, which is a noticeable change from the relatively calm price trends of
More informationVirginia GFOA. May 4, Reid Andrews Government Treasury Management. Vanessa Hubbard Fixed Income Market & Portfolio Strategy
Virginia GFOA May 4, 2016 Reid Andrews Government Treasury Management Vanessa Hubbard Fixed Income Market & Portfolio Strategy WFS and its investment representatives do not act as Municipal Advisors and
More informationPlaying The Bull Market s Final Inning(s)
Playing The Bull Market s Final Inning(s) Douglas Ramsey, CFA, CMT Mid-September 2013 FOR PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY. FURTHER DISTRIBUTION OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROHIBITED WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION.
More informationWeekly Market Commentary
LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Weekly Market Commentary July 28, 2014 Burt White, MD Chief Invetment Officer LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, VP Market Strategist LPL Financial Second Quarter Earnings Season
More informationManaging market ups and downs. Three tips to help you invest with confidence RETIREMENT PLAN SERVICES
RETIREMENT PLAN SERVICES Managing market ups and downs Three tips to help you invest with confidence Insurance products issued by: The Lincoln National Life Insurance Company Lincoln Life & Annuity Company
More informationCORRECTION PERSPECTIVES
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY February 12 2018 CORRECTION PERSPECTIVES John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS A perfect storm of investor worries collided over the
More informationThe Wage Conundrum. coming months but likely fade as the year comes to a close. Chart 1. U.S., Eurozone and Japanese Core Inflation Remains Subdued
Peter Donisanu Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS The Wage Conundrum September, 17 Key Takeaways» Some market participants have taken the recent rebound in
More informationMarch 07, Dear Friends and Investors,
March 07, 2018 Dear Friends and Investors, The following market overview for the month of February, 2018 has been produced by the Fund s Senior Portfolio Manager, Steven Goldman. We trust that you ll find
More informationOUTLOOK 2014/2015. BMO Asset Management Inc.
OUTLOOK 2014/2015 BMO Asset Management Inc. We would like to take this opportunity to provide our capital markets outlook for the remainder of 2014 and the first half of 2015 and our recommended asset
More informationThe Bull Market: Six Years Old And Not Over
The Bull Market: Six Years Old And Not Over April 22-24, 2015 FOR PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY. FURTHER DISTRIBUTION OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROHIBITED WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION. Disclosures This
More informationPNC Investment Perspective
March/April 2014 PNC Investment Perspective Decoupling of Developed and Emerging Markets? Jim Dunigan Mr. Dunigan is Executive Vice President and Managing Executive, Investments for PNC Asset Management
More informationMarch 6, Why Is The Fed Tapering? Michael Purves Chief Global Strategist Head of Equity Derivatives Research (203)
Michael Purves Chief Global Strategist Head of Equity Derivatives Research (203) 861-7725 mpurves@weedenco.com March 6, 2014 Why Is The Fed Tapering? As Yellen has taken the helm of the Federal Reserve,
More information2007 Outlook & Opportunities Terry Sandven & Christian Heitzman Portfolio Strategy Group January 2007
2007 Outlook & Opportunities Terry Sandven & Christian Heitzman Portfolio Strategy Group January 2007 Since 1895. Member SIPC and NYSE. 1 Overview Review of 2006 Outlook for 2007 Interest Rates (Fed decisions)
More informationFirst Quarter. January March 2016
First Quarter January March 2016 Highlights First quarter showed positive momentum for design industry. Design firms in March reported strong and accelerating business after a weak January and February.
More informationWILL GOLD CONTINUE TO SHINE?
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY March 7 216 WILL GOLD CONTINUE TO SHINE? Burt White Chief Investment Officer, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist, LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS
More information2017 was a Banner Year Look for a More Normal 2018
Retirement Income Solutions Helping to grow and preserve your wealth 2017 was a Banner Year Look for a More Normal 2018 February 2018 Summary The U.S. stock market posted a strong 2017 with returns of
More informationEffective Investment Policy and Strategies
Agenda for Today Effective Policy and Strategies For Today s Economic Environment Objectives and Goals Decisions Policy Permissible s Strategy Implementation Case Studies 2 Objectives & Goals Making Informed
More information