International Fund Solutions Investment Review and Outlook

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1 Fund Solutions Investment Review and Outlook

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3 Fund Solutions Market update Q In a move that was widely expected, the US Federal Reserve announced that it will be the first central bank to start unwinding its quantitative easing (QE) program, albeit in a very gradual fashion. Starting in October, it will remove $6bn of US Treasuries and $4bn of mortgage-backed securities from its balance sheet each month, which, given the relatively small increments (relative to the $4.5trn balance sheet) is unlikely to derail an eight-year economic expansion (the third longest), which by the summer of 2019 will become the longest in history. However, its symbolic significance is far greater, particularly with both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan still actively engaged in QE programs. The speed at which the Federal Reserve will shrink its balance sheet beyond the next three months will have an obvious impact on the pace of any planned interest rate increases, with Federal Reserve Chairperson, Janet Yellen, so far failing to provide clear guidance over what the trade-off might be, although the former Federal Reserve Chairman did, when he asserted that the US$600 billion part of QE2 in 2011 was equivalent to slicing an extra 75 basis points off the Federal Funds target rate. Economic news has been broadly positive and the labour market has continued to strengthen, but this has not translated into higher inflation, suggesting perhaps that longer-term structural deflationary forces might be holding it in check. With only one interest rate increase anticipated in December, there is a growing belief that both US interest rates and bond yields might stay lower for longer, rather than quickly normalise. US Treasury bonds have been remarkably stable over the quarter, with long dated bond yields barely changed, with the 10-year benchmark yield at 2.30% and 30-year at 2.84%, well below where it commenced the year at 3.07%, reflecting a general flattening of the yield curve. In the UK a slightly different picture has emerged, with longer dated yields rising fractionally, but accompanied with a flattening of the yield curve as short dated rates have edged higher, acknowledging a possible rise in interest rates in the not too distant future. In mid-september, the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, surprised the market by announcing that interest rates might need to be raised earlier than expected, with inflation running at 2.9%, well above the Bank s target of 2% and signs that wage growth is building. These comments pushed Sterling through 1.35 versus the US dollar and back below 0.88 versus the Euro, having briefly breached 0.93 at the end of August. The FTSE 100 index also struggled to make headway with a large number of its constituents being US dollar earners. Outperforming the UK market by a clear margin, European equity markets have enjoyed a stellar year so far, as has the Euro, supported by political stability and an improved economic outlook creating an environment for positive corporate earnings growth, which has exceeded analysts forecasts for the region. Current valuations are also attractive by historic standards, with Eurozone cyclically adjusted price earnings ratios (CAPE) at just below 16x, compared to its long-term average at just below 20x, which is a significant discount to the S&P 500 at 28x. Similarly, emerging markets also appear to offer value, trading at 15.6x, compared to developed markets generally and is a major reason for our overweight exposure and optimism for the region over the long term. The current economic environment still appears to be supportive for global equity markets and despite record high valuations, most notably in the US, we have maintained our maximum overweight positioning as part of our tactical asset allocation policy. Short-term fundamental indicators remain broadly positive and the risk of a global economic slowdown appears low, assuming events in North Korea do not escalate into a broader military conflict. Quarterly Investment Review / 01

4 Fund Solutions Discretionary Portfolio Strategies - Asset Weightings Global Growth 100% Core Funds 80% Core Funds 10% 10% Tactical Asset Allocation ETFs USD GBP Euro % 6% 6% 100% 10 8% 6% 6% 60% 5 0 6% 8% 8% Equity: Domestic Equity: Developed Equity: Emerging Moderate/ Global Balanced 80% Core Funds 40% Tactical Asset Allocation ETFs USD GBP Euro 6% 6% 6% 8% 6% 6% 6% 8% 8% Equity: Domestic Equity: Developed Equity: Emerging Moderate Global Conservative 80% Core Funds 25% 40% 15% Tactical Asset Allocation ETFs 6% 8% 8% Equity: Domestic Equity: Developed Equity: Emerging /Moderate USD GBP Euro 6% 6% 6% 8% 6% 6% Global Global Fixed Income 90% Core Funds Tactical Asset Allocation 10% ETFs 100% Core Funds /Moderate 35% 5% 10 8 USD GBP Euro 3% 3% 3% 10% 6 4 4% 3% 3% 100% 45% 5% Cash 2 0 3% 4% 4% Equity: Domestic Equity: Developed Equity: Emerging As at 30 September 2017 / 02 Quarterly Investment Review

5 Fund Solutions Key Investment Themes Equity Mid & Small Cap Companies: Exhibit structurally higher earnings growth rates than large and mega cap companies. We believe that active fund managers in these sectors have greater potential to outperform market indices given the limited analyst coverage, broader universe of stocks and greater dispersion of winners and losers. Technological Change: The technology sector continues to take share of the global economy and this trend is only going to accelerate. Our managers can access investment themes with genuine exponential growth opportunities as we progress towards the digital age. Global Healthcare: Global healthcare demand is set to grow substantially in the decades ahead due to ageing demographics in developed market countries. Using a specialist manager with industry expertise we are able to access exciting new technologies in medical science along with leading healthcare services and pharmaceutical businesses. Emerging Market Growth: Our focus is on the domestic wealth cycle of emerging countries where demographics and organic growth make for a powerful long term investment thesis. Fixed income Sovereign and Investment Grade Debt: The international fixed income models (, US dollar, Euro) are primarily exposed to these two sectors, with exposures in the region of 70%. There is up to 25% split between both the Yield Corporate Credit and Emerging Debt sectors, with the remaining 5% held in Cash. Exchange Tradeable Funds (ETFs): All three models have a 40% exposure to Government and Investment Grade Corporate ETFs, with maturity profiles ranging between one to seven years. Duration: The aggregated underlying duration in the international fixed income models is currently in the region of 2.5 years, but with a core focus on sovereign and supranational, unlike the real return strategy, which is primarily corporate. Real return Fixed Income with an Absolute Return approach: The allocation to this core component includes a blend of unconstrained bond fund strategies and exchange tradable funds (ETFs), focusing on government, investment grade, non-investment grade corporate sectors, together with exposures to emerging debt, primarily local currency and convertibles. Emerging Local Currency Debt and Yield: Both share classes currently have a 15% exposure to both of these sector themes, which have performed particularly well in the US dollar share class. Performance summary After a strong first half of 2017, the performance of our multi asset model portfolios were generally fractionally behind their respective benchmarks during the quarter. This was largely due to the pricing convention of the underlying funds, where the rally in equity markets over the last two days of the quarter was not fully reflected in month end valuations. On a year to date basis, all multi asset portfolios continue to outperform. We have increased our equity weighting to maximum overweight during the quarter by raising the exposure to an emerging market exchange tradeable fund (ETF) in July and similarly to a global equity ETF in August, both of which have added value, despite the sell-off in emerging markets in September. Fundamentals remain supportive and importantly top line sales growth is filtering through to corporate results, which should be favourable for active stock pickers in the months ahead. We remain underweight fixed income, with a focus on the shorter dated maturities and a meaningful exposure to corporate credit, although acknowledging that corporate spreads are currently trading at fairly tight levels. Quarterly Investment Review / 03

6 Fund Solutions Standard Bank Funds Limited Multi Manager Fund The Fund had another solid quarter with both currency classes posting decent positive returns broadly in line with the benchmark. The US dollar C share class rose 4.92%, while the Sterling C share class gained 2.25%. Performance from the majority of underlying managers was slightly in arrears of benchmark, but there was notably strong performance from our emerging markets allocation. It was pleasing to note that both the tactical overweight and manager selection added value, with the Fidelity China Consumer and Aubrey Emerging Market Opportunities funds both delivering double digit returns in US dollar terms. The thematic allocations to healthcare, US financials and technology funds modestly underperformed while the overweight exposure to Japan added value, principally due to the outperformance of the Baillie Gifford Japanese Small Cap Fund, which gained 9% in US dollar terms during the period. The US regional managers also modestly underperformed, with the majority struggling in more sentiment driven markets. However, solid earnings growth in the US is now evident and to date has been stronger in the mid and small cap companies due to their increased leverage to the economic cycle. We are confident that fundamentals are supportive for this trend to continue and that there is potential for outperformance from our US managers over the long term. Multi Manager Global Balanced Fund The Global Balanced Fund posted a positive return for the quarter, with the US dollar C share class gaining 3.62% and the Sterling C class 1.66%. In relative terms it was pleasing to note that both classes were also comfortably ahead of benchmark. The main driver of performance came from the tactical asset allocation policy, where the overweight exposure to equities and in particular a meaningful exposure to emerging market equities added significant value. While there is always the potential for geopolitical events to undermine market sentiment, and in the short term market valuations are a concern, the underlying economic fundamentals remain encouraging and the outlook for corporate earnings is more positive than for many years. This led us to increase the equity exposure to the top of our normal range. There were mixed results from the underlying managers. The regional UK managers outperformed with the small cap strategies rallying strongly while the US regional managers were marginally in arrears with the majority struggling in more sentiment driven markets. The thematic funds performed broadly in line with benchmark, with outperformance from the China consumer and energy strategies offset by underperformance elsewhere. The fixed income allocation also performed in line with the benchmark. Multi Manager Absolute Return Fund Both Fund currency classes have recorded positive returns year-to-date. The Fund s significant exposure to Sovereign and Investment Grade debt contributed positively during the quarter, providing a safe haven to both rising geopolitical tensions and a spike in market volatility. The LMWA Macro Opportunities fund, M&G Optimal Income fund and the ishares 3-7 Year ETF performed particularly well, whilst the exposure to local emerging debt, primarily via the Schroder Emerging Debt Absolute Return Fund and the subinvestment grade credit exposure, via the Hermes Multi-Strategy Credit fund, also contributed positively. The US dollar class has particularly benefitted from its exposure to emerging market currencies. / 04 Quarterly Investment Review

7 Contact Information Philip Smith - Head Investment and Fiduciary tel: +44 (0) philip.smith@standardsbg.com Helen Holmes - Head Business Management tel: + 44 (0) helen.holmes@standardbank.com David Jardine - Head Fund Solutions tel:+44 (0) david.jardine@standardbank.com Simon Bradbury - Senior Portfolio Manager tel: +44 (0) simon.bradbury@standardbank.com Tony Wood - Senior Fund Manager tel: +44 (0) tony.wood@standardbank.com Carl Stirrup - Senior Fund Analyst tel: +44 (0) carl.stirrup@standardbank.com Standard Bank Investments Limited Standard Bank House La Motte Street St Helier Jersey JE2 4SZ Important Information This does not constitute an invitation to buy or the solicitation of an offer to sell securities or to accept deposits or to provide any other products or services in any jurisdiction, to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation, nor should it be construed to constitute any investment advice. Legislation or regulations in jurisdictions relevant to you may prohibit you from entering into certain transactions with us and we strongly recommend that you contact your financial or legal adviser in this regard. It is your responsibility to inform yourself about and to comply with such restrictions. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and investors may get back less cash than originally invested. Prices, values or income may fall against the investors interests and the performance figures quoted refer to the past, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Investments may be quoted in foreign currencies and investors should be aware that the changes in rates of exchange may have adverse effects on the value, price or income of the investments. If your base currency is not the same as that of your investments, your return may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations. Standard Bank Investments Limited is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. Registered in Jersey No Standard Bank Investments Limited is a wholly owned subsidiary of Standard Bank Offshore Group Limited a company incorporated in Jersey. Standard Bank Offshore Group Limited is a wholly owned subsidiary of Standard Bank Group Limited which has its registered office at 9th Floor, Standard Bank Centre, 5 Simmonds Street, Johannesburg 2001, Republic of South Africa. Telephone calls may be recorded. These views are the opinion of the Investment managers only. They do not reflect the views of Standard Bank Group and should not be considered as investment advice. Neither should this be considered to be a Research Report under SEC rules or Investment Research as defined by FCA rules as it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements to promote the independence of investment research and it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Copyright Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Morningstar Rating as of 31 May 2014, in the Global Large-Cap Blend Equity Morningstar Category Standard Bank Investments Limited is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. Registered in Jersey No Standard Bank Investments Limited is a wholly owned subsidiary of Standard Bank Offshore Group Limited a company incorporated in Jersey, registered No RMC B

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