Tactical Money Management-- Strategy Overviews and Forecasting 2016
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1 Tactical Money Management-- Strategy Overviews and Forecasting
2 2015 Strategy Performance A YEAR IN TRANSITION The end of QE in the U.S. First Interest Rate Hike in 8 Years. Late economic cycle slowing. Global Policy Divergence, Global Currency Wars. Crashing commodity prices: Oil signaling deflation. 2
3 Innovative-Liquid Alternative Quantitative Risk Models For More RESILIENT PORTFOLIO OUTCOMES SEC Registered Investment Advisor founded in Two Decades of Experience in Researching, Developing and Executing Tactical Risk Management Dedicated Focus on Index based trading strategies to help improve traditional risk/return expectations. Innovative, Liquid Alternative Investment Strategies with a Proven History of Success. 3
4 How We Invest ASYMETRIC RETURNS Absolute Returns: Going beyond defensive cash: Returns Long / Short / Hedged: Institutional management, available to retail level Investing for Outcomes: Pension / Endowment portfolio 4
5 Understanding Markets Bull vs Bear Bull Market Trends Born in skepticism Persistent small gains Low Daily Volatility Bear Market Trends Born in confidence Large Moves High Daily Volatility 5
6 How We Invest 3 Factor Models LONG TERM TREND LONG/SHORT INTERMIDEIATE TERM TREND LONG/SHORT SHORT TERM VOLATILITY 6
7 Types of Strategies LONG-SHORT EQUITY TACTICAL MUNI TACTICAL BOND 7
8 Strategy Performance STRATEGY PERFORMANCE YTD Tactical High Yield 0.48% Long-Short Fixed Income +1.50% Tactical Muni 0.39% Long-Short Equity (1.80%) INDEX COMPARISON: Merrill Lynch HY Index (4.09%) S&P Municipal Bond Index 0.99% S&P 500 Index (9.03%) 8
9 Strategy Performance STRATEGY PERFORMANCE YTD 3YR 5YR INCEP Tactical High Yield 0.48% 9.20% 7.88% 12.21% Tactical Muni 0.39% 4.10% 4.74% 6.60% Long-Short Equity (1.80%) 6.60% 4.14% 9.93% INDEX COMPARISON: Merrill Lynch HY Index (4.09%) 1.69% 5.04% 6.43% S&P Municipal Bond Index 0.99% 3.23% 5.51% 4.59% S&P 500 Index (9.03%) 15.13% 12.57% 7.09% 9
10 Strategy Risk STRATEGY DRAWDOWN MAX DRAWDOWN Tactical High Yield (10.63%) Tactical Muni (6.37%) Long-Short Equity (19.41%) INDEX COMPARISON: Merrill Lynch HY Index (33.31%) S&P Municipal Bond Index (6.97%) S&P 500 Index (50.95%) 10
11 Strategy Correlation STRATEGY CORRELATION R 2 Tactical High Yield 0.31 Tactical Muni 0.68 Long-Short Equity 0.24 INDEX COMPARISON: Merrill Lynch HY Index 1.0 S&P Municipal Bond Index 1.0 S&P 500 Index
12 Blue Skies and Unicorns The Federal Reserve Forecast 12
13 Federal Reserve Forecast December 2015 The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee is forecasting accelerating economic growth through
14 Federal Reserve Forecast December 2015 The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee is forecasting accelerating economic growth through
15 Federal Reserve Forecast December 2015 Despite enduring more than 20 recessions over the past 200 years, The Federal Reserve has never forecast a recession. Ever. Federal Reserve DOT PLOT 15
16 Federal Reserve Forecast December 2015 All negative data is just transitory? 16
17 Recession Watch: Manufacturing First Back to Back Slowdown in December since
18 Recession Watch: Manufacturing First Back to Back Slowdown in December since
19 Recession Watch: Services slowdown not just a manufacturing slowdown 19
20 Recession Watch: Corporate Profits S&P 500 Revenue and Earnings Losing Momentum 20
21 Peak Leverage The end of life support The QE Exit 21
22 Peak Leverage ZIRP and QE have delivered record debt 22
23 Risk Mitigation--Declines from 2015 Highs to first week of
24 2016 Themes Gravity should take hold Recession/Slowdown; Inverted Yield Curve Currency Wars will accelerate Credit default cycle is just beginning: 2 nd Inning Expect Volatility and Liquidity sell-offs 24
25 Questions? 25
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