After the Meltdown. Vancouver Sept

Transcription

1 After the Meltdown Vancouver Sept

2 Lehman Brothers September

3 Milton Friedman

4 Bill Gross: PIMCO still equals 4 is that as wealth is redistributed, and the invisible private hand of Adam Smith begins to resemble more and more the public fist of government, then asset values should be negatively affected.

5 David Rosenberg

6 Dr. Joseph Stiglitz

7 However first

8 And with regrets

9 The United States Recession Is it over?

10 Recession is over or is it?

11 Scary job losses

12 And even more scary job losses

13 and some more sobering numbers

14 And a new natural unemployment rate

15 As Europe reels

16 Ben Bernanke: How do they do it? Things he wish he had never said: "Under a fiat money system, a central bank has a technology, called a printing press that allows it to produce as many US dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. November 21 st, 2002 Chair, U.S. Federal Reserve

17 Helicopter Ben

18 Warren Buffet

19 Ben Bernanke April 17 th 2009: Th d f thi t i th The damage from this turn in the credit cycle in terms of lost wealth, lost homes, and blemished credit histories is likely to be long-lasting

20 Ben Bernanke Aug :

21 Bernanke: Today

22 Energy

23 West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil: 1 Year

24 Fair price for oil?

25 Gasoline: 1 Year

26 Natgas

27 Stock Markets

28 Black Thursday 1929

29 : NYSE Crash

30 Stock Market Crash:

31 Stock Market Crash: Banking crisis- Credit unavailable

32 Stock Market Crash:

33

34 Dow: 18 Months

35 Dow: A little perspective

36 David Rosenberg: Again

37 Cash for Clunkers 690,000 cars! $2.88 billion

38 False Growth

39 GM

40 or let the Dinosaurs Die

41 Double dip recession?

42 Inflation

43 Nikkei: 20 Years

44 But in Canada

45 TSX: 1 Year

46 TSX: 7 months

47 Wall Street GREED!

48 Real Estate

49 Home price Index June 2009

50 Home prices:

51 Continuing negativity in the housing market

52 Debt in the whole housing market

53 Foreclosures: August 2009

54 Did the U.S. have a housing bubble? bbl

55 Roller Coaster

56 Alan Greenspan "I don't know what it is, but we're doing some damage because this is not the way credit markets should operate,"

57 Alan Greenspan "While I was aware a lot of these (subprime loan) "While I was aware a lot of these (subprime loan) practices were going on, I had no notion of how significant they had become until very late. I really didn't get it until very late in 2005 and 2006."

58 Debt and Interest Rates Intergenerational mortgages

59 Canadian real estate

60 we see it but don t believe it

61 September 15

62

63 U.S. National Debt Clock 14 Sept 2009

64 U.S. deficit

65 U.S. 3 Month T-bills

66 Last December

67 U.S. 10 year notes

68 3-Month Libor London Interbank Offer Rate: a daily reference rate based on interest rates at which banks borrow unsecured funds from other banks in the London wholesale money market (or interbank market).

69 to whom is the debt owed?

70 And what about China?

71 A new global currency

72 Gold

73 Gold: 1 Year USD

74 Gold: 6-Months

75 Banking

76 Depression Bank Failures

77 Banks today

78 Banks then and now

79 and of course Currencies

80 U.S. Dollar Index 4.20% 3.60% EURO 910% 9.10% JAPAN/Yen UK/Pound CANADA/Dollar 11.90% SWEDEN/Krona SWITZERLAND/Franc 57.60% 13.60%

81 U.S. Dollar Index: 8 Years

82 U.S. Dollar Index: 6 mos

83 Canadian Dollar 7 years

84 Canadian Dollar 1 year

85 Canadian Dollar 6 mos.

86 USD:

87 Participants in Government Investment Plan $197 billion to 511 institutions

88 Troubled Asset Relief Program

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99 Troubled Asset Relief Program

100 Hope?

101 and how about our priorities?

102 "I am not so much concerned with the return on capital as I am with the return of capital." Will Rogers On Investing:

103 Bernard Baruch Bernard Baruch Famous American Financier Don't try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. This can't be done, except by liars.

104 Will Rogers On Investing: "Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it.

105 The Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. John Maynard Keynes

106 But don t worry about the US U.S. Winston Churchill Americans will always do the right thing after they have exhausted all other alternatives.

107 And Finally Charles Darwin: It s not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most tintelligent, t but tthose that t are adaptive to change.

108 After the Meltdown Vancouver Sept