Quarterly High Yield Market Summary

Transcription

1 Quarterly High Yield Market Summary As of December 31, 2013 Aside from a brief respite in October, risk free rates trended higher in Q (up 42 basis points in the 10 Year and 36 bps in the 5 Year), spurred late in the quarter by the Fed s decision to reduce its Quantitative Easing program by $10 billion per month to $75 billion. Credit spread contraction more than offset the move up in Treasury rates, which once again drove high yield to outperform Treasuries and Investment Grade Corporates, while underperforming U.S. equities. Market Overview The Broad High Yield Index i returned 3.50% in Q with 83 bps of spread tightening, while the Higher Quality sub-index ii returned 3.33% with 80 bps of tightening. The lower quality spectrum of high yield outperformed the BBrated at 4.22% versus 3.15% respectively. For high yield Loans, the All Loan Index iii returned 1.70%, while the BB rated sub-index iv returned 1.26%. On a full year basis, U.S. High Yield is up 7.42%, with the Quality sub-index up 6.31% and the All Loan index up 5.29%. The increase in 10 year rates over the quarter led to a -2.45% return for 10 year Treasuries, and a 1.02% return for Investment Grade Corporates v. Emerging Market High Yield vi was up 2.56%. The inflows into high yield bond funds in Q4 were about half of the volume in Q3, with $1 billion in ETFs and $3 billion in Mutual Funds. A similar halving in Q4 inflows into the Floating Rate High Yield space was evident, with $1 billion in ETF inflows and $8 billion in Mutual Funds. New issue activity for High Yield Bonds slowed in Q4, with $61 billion, versus $74 billion in Q3. Likewise, global loan issuance slowed, with $89 billion placed in Q3 versus $99 billion in Q3. Regardless of the moderate slowdown in fourth quarter loan deals, full year 2013 issuance set a record at $454 billion. Defaults remain benign, with Moody's 12-month trailing default rate (U.S. issuer-based) falling to 2.16% through December 2013, from 2.70% in the prior quarter. During the third quarter of 2013, 9 issuers defaulted 2 in North America, 3 in Europe, and the remainder from other parts of the world. Moody's now expects the default rate to rise to 2.31% by the end of The trailing 12-month U.S. loan default rate ended Q4 at 2.2%, down from 2.7% the prior quarter. Monegy Performance Update Over the 14 year track record, Monegy s Quality High Yield Strategy has returned 8.33% p.a. (gross of fees), representing 1.13% p.a. of excess returns compared to its benchmark. This outperformance was achieved with only 73% of the benchmark s volatility. With the marginal outperformance of lower rated credit in the fourth quarter, our Broad High Yield Strategy (3.41% viii ) modestly outperformed our Quality High Yield Strategy (3.18%), and each strategy marginally underperformed its respective benchmark. The Loan Composite returned 1.75%, beating the BB benchmark by 49 bps Historical Performance - Style Has Performed Well Versus Market Growth of a Unit Value (US$ million) -- Since Inception 1999 Since Inception Returns Monegy Quality HY Strategy ML BB-B Const: % p.a. 7.20% p.a. Monegy Quality HY Source: Monegy and BofA Merrill Lynch. Dec. 31, Inception Date October Returns reflect the Quality High Yield Bond Composite, gross of fees. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Supplemental Information. Please see complete GIPS compliant presentation at the end of this document. The market has been represented by the BofA Merrill Lynch BB-B US High Yield Constrained Index. The U.S. dollar is the currency used to express performance. Returns are based on monthly composite returns linked on a rolling basis and include the reinvestment of all income. Return does not take into account any fees, expenses, taxation or inflation. Yields tightened in over the quarter by roughly 58 bps in Quality and 52 bps in Broad, driven primarily by a pullback in spreads, leaving the yield to worst at 5.02% for the Quality Strategy and 5.30% for the Broad Strategy. Option adjusted spreads are now 340 bps for Quality and 374 bps for Broad. Both strategies remain highly diversified with less than 10% of market value attributed to the top ten holdings, and an average issuer exposure below ½%. The credit quality of the strategies remains solid, with an average default probability below 1% for each of the Quality and Broad Strategies. Monegy s realized default experience since inception continues to be extremely low at 0.2% p.a. through Q4 2013, well below Moody s average of 5.0% p.a. for the same period ML BB-B Index Monegy s Broad High Yield Strategy has crossed the three year mark and in that time has beat its benchmark by 0.12% p.a., with only 89% of the volatility vii.

2 Total Returns (USD) Since Inception* Q Monegy Quality HY 8.33% 4.27% 10.17% 8.23% 17.01% 11.38% 3.08% 8.36% 3.95% % 32.34% 12.66% 6.53% 12.72% 3.18% 6.27% ML US HY BB-B Constrained 7.20% -3.91% 5.43% 1.10% 22.89% 9.93% 3.39% 9.29% 3.19% % 46.06% 14.26% 5.40% 14.58% 3.33% 6.31% Over/Under Performance 1.13% 8.18% 4.74% 7.14% -5.88% 1.45% -0.31% -0.93% 0.76% 8.11% % -1.60% 1.14% -1.86% -0.15% -0.04% Since Inception* Q Monegy Broad HY 10.73% 6.23% 13.41% 3.41% 7.78% ML US HY Broad Constrained 10.61% 4.37% 15.55% 3.49% 7.41% Over/Under Performance 0.12% 1.86% -2.14% -0.08% 0.37% Since 2012* Q Monegy Loan Composite 7.92% 8.98% 1.39% 2.92% 6.40% 4.67% 5.59% 6.74% 2.81% % 10.68% 1.75% 5.23% S&P/LSTA BB Loan Index 5.47% 6.67% 3.54% 2.56% 6.87% 4.23% 4.69% 6.19% 2.35% % 7.17% 1.26% 3.80% Over/Under Performance 2.45% 2.31% -2.15% 0.36% -0.47% 0.44% 0.90% 0.55% 0.46% 5.56% 3.51% 0.49% 1.43% Note: See attached disclosure statement. All returns are gross of fees. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Return/Risk is the annualized total return divided by the annualized standard deviation. *Since inception for Quality High Yield: October 1, 1999; for Broad High Yield: July 1, 2010; For Loans: January 1, 2012 (please see disclosure page for details on loan composite between ). As of Dec. 31, This is supplemental information. Time periods of one year or greater are annualized. Portfolio Statistics Quality HY Strategy Broad HY Strategy Market Value (US$ million) Average Issuer Exposure (% of market value) 0.29% 0.35% Top 10 Issuers (%) 7.9% 8.3% Average Price $105 $106 Average Yield to Worst 5.02% 5.30% Average Yield to Maturity 5.94% 6.24% Average Option Adjusted Spread Average Probability of Default (%) 0.79% 0.95% Average Rating B1 B2 Note: Supplemental Information, subject to change. Calculated using bid side pricing. Default probability is based on Moody's KMV. As of Dec 31, Data reflects the Quality HY Bond Composite, and the Broad HY Bond Composite. lower given the sensitivity to assumptions around rising interest rates. Our forecast is based on expectations for only modestly higher risk-free interest rates, low levels of realized defaults and opportunity for credit spread contraction to partially offset any move higher in benchmark rates. In considering potential headwinds to our outlook, if we are wrong in our prediction of only a modest rise in interest rates this year, investors may benefit from substituting floating rate leveraged loans for high yield bonds, gaining exposure to a similar credit return but without the duration risk associated with fixed coupon bonds Outlook and Strategy We expect the Fed to dominate in 2014 as investors continue to speculate on the timing of further tapering of the Central Bank s $75 billion of direct asset purchases per month and what that will mean for longer term rates. So long as unemployment remains high, inflation is at low levels not seen for a sustained period since the 1960s, and economists infer that negative interest rates are required to stimulate economic growth, we do not see a pressing economic justification for higher rates. On the credit front, while there has been some re-leveraging of corporate balance sheets, most companies have refinanced debt at the lowest rates in history. Because so much debt has been refinanced and termed out, and with looser covenants to meet, we are comfortable that default rates will remain subdued and a negative liquidity event is unlikely. With stable rates, a backdrop of solid corporate balance sheets, and a low level of expected default, it is the carry implicit in credit spread that will allow high yield to outperform investment grade credit and US Treasuries again in We are predicting a mid-single digit total return for the high yield asset class in 2014; 4-4 ½% for loans and 5 ½-6% for bonds, with the range of possible bond outcomes skewed While we remain constructive on high yield issuer fundamentals on average, there has been a return to higher leverage in high yield, as borrowers have taken advantage of the intense demand for spread product. One negative side effect for investors stemming from such strong demand has been the ability of borrowers to strip out covenants and higher pricing protections. The result is a market that is currently offering a lower risk adjusted return than in previous years, but one where we believe the relative risk/return is still attractive. We remain cautious of macro risks in the Euro-zone, and have not forgotten that there are material imbalances in global trade patterns. Risks to global economic growth from a pullback or debt implosion in China, or a return of aversion to marginal Euro countries will spread to developed markets through both trade statistics and market prices. In an environment full of so many uncertainties, we continue to see high yield as offering an attractive balance of risk/return given its yield advantage and its lower exposure to rising rates than core fixed income.

3 Monegy Monegy s team of experienced investment professionals has specialized in managing high yield credit portfolios for over 14 years, currently with US$2.6 billion in assets under management. We provide a full suite of asset management solutions for institutional, retail and high net worth investors, including segregated accounts, pooled funds and a selection of mutual fund investments on various platforms. Our objective is to achieve attractive long-term risk-adjusted returns, while providing capital protection and superior client service. We offer the following opportunities to invest in high yield: Quality High Yield Bond Strategies, geared toward a more risk-averse clientele; Broad High Yield Bond Strategies, tailored for investors with a higher risk tolerance; and Floating Rate and Leveraged Loan Strategies, aimed at investors looking to position for rising base interest rates, with higher downside protection given the senior position in the capital structure. Key Elements of Our Style Rigorous Asset Selection Supported by Quantitative and Fundamental Credit Analysis Risk-Adjusted Portfolio Construction and Monitoring High Levels of Diversification Focus on Low Volatility, Stable Long-Run Returns Disciplined Approach to Sell Decisions High Yield Team Sadhana Valia, CFA Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of High Yield o MBA (University of Chicago) o B. Commerce Honours (Carleton University) o 29 years of investment experience Lori Marchildon, CFA Portfolio Manager o MA (Queen s University) o BA Economics (University of Western Ontario) o 18 years of investment experience Daniel Brennand, CFA Senior Trader/ Credit Analyst o MA (University of Toronto) o BA Economics & Politics (U of Western Ontario) o 13 years of investment experience Rory Buchalter, CFA Senior Credit Analyst o B. Commerce (McMaster University) o 17 years of investment experience Jason Anderson, CFA Senior Credit Analyst o MBA (York University Schulich School of Business) o BA Finance & Economics (U of Western Ontario) o 13 years of investment experience Vincent Huang, CFA Senior Credit Analyst o MBA (York University Schulich School of Business) o BA - Economics (Beijing University) o 11 years of investment experience

4 MONEGY MONEGY QUALITY HIGH YIELD BOND COMPOSITE ANNUAL DISCLOSURE PRESENTATION **Strategy Assets are shown as supplemental information. Strategy assets include composite and non-composite accounts that have the same investment mandate. Non-composite accounts are excluded from the composite due to size, specific client guidelines, or other strategy limitations. The Monegy Quality High Yield Bond Composite contains fully discretionary highly diversified portfolios of high yield bonds focusing primarily on the BB/B segment of the U.S. market with an objective of maximizing the total return, both interest income and gains for a given risk appetite. For comparison purposes, the composite is measured against the Merrill Lynch, U.S. High Yield, BB/B Constrained Index. In presentations shown from January 1, 2004 through December 31, 2004, the Merrill Lynch, U.S. High Yield, BB/B Rated Index was presented as the benchmark for this composite. In presentations shown prior to January 1, 2004, the Bear Stearns BB/B Index was presented as the benchmark for this composite. The indices were changed to be more representative of the composite strategy. Effective January 1, 2005, Monegy changed its pricing sources to conform to systems used by its parent. This change resulted in a one-time gain of 0.42% in As of December 31, 2010, 9% of composite assets are comprised of one account that uses currency hedging to remove the effect of currency. The minimum account size for this composite is $5 million. The composite was created October 1, Prior to July 1, 2010, the composite was called the High Yield Bond Segregated Composite. Prior to December 31, 2011, the composite was named the Quality High Yield Bond Composite. Monegy is a member of BMO Financial Group Trademark of Bank of Montreal and a trade name used by the Bank of Montreal and BMO Harris N.A. in Canada and the US. Monegy, Inc. is a registered investment advisor with the SEC, and wholly owned subsidiary of BMO Asset Management Corp. Prior to June 1, 2012 Monegy, Inc. was know as HIM Monegy, Inc. Prior to 2003 the firm was know as BMO Monegy. Monegy is a registered trademark used by Monegy, Inc. Monegy claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS ) and has prepared and presented this report in compliance with the GIPS standards. Monegy has been independently verified for the periods October 1, 1999 through September 30, A copy of the verification reports are available upon request. Verification assesses whether (1) the firm has complied with all the composite construction requirements of the GIPS standards on a firm-wide basis and (2) the firm s policies and procedures are designed to calculate and present performance in compliance with the GIPS standards. Verification does not ensure the accuracy of any specific composite presentation. The firm maintains a complete list and description of composites, which is available upon request. A significant external cash flow will be identified by the firm as a cash flow that affects performance of the account so that it is not representative of the underlying investment philosophy. Beginning September 1, 2010, when an account experiences a significant external cash flow greater than 20% of portfolio beginning assets, it is assumed that such a cash flow temporarily causes a loss of discretion, and the account will be excluded from the composite for the full month the cash flow occurred. The account will be re-included in the composite the month after the cash flow occurred. Additional information regarding the treatment of significant cash flows is available upon request. Results are based on fully discretionary accounts under management, including those accounts no longer with the firm. Settlement date valuation was used to calculate performance prior to January 1, Past performance is not indicative of future results. The U.S. Dollar is the currency used to express performance. Returns are presented gross and net of management fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Net of fee performance was calculated using the highest management fee of 0.50%. Gross of fee performance returns are presented before management fees, custodial fees and withholding taxes, but net of all trading expenses. The annual composite dispersion presented is an equal-weighted standard deviation calculated for the accounts in the composite the entire year. Additional information regarding the policies for valuing portfolios, calculating performance, and preparing compliant presentations are available upon request. The investment management fee schedule for the composite is: 0.50% on the first $50 million, 0.45% on the next $50 million, and 0.40% thereafter. Actual investment advisory fees incurred by clients may vary. Prior to 2008 carve-outs were included in this composite and performance reflected total segment returns. The accounts from which carve-outs were taken did not hold a cash balance. The percentage of carve-outs for the individual years is as follows: 2007: 2%, 2006: 2%, and 2005: 11%. Purchases are funded by the client upon purchase and proceeds from sold assets are returned to the client upon the close of the sale. BMO Global Asset Management is the brand name for various affiliated entities of BMO Financial Group that provide investment management, retirement, and trust and custody services. Certain of the products and services offered under the brand name BMO Global Asset Management are designed specifically for various categories of investors in a number of different countries and regions and may not be available to all investors. Products and services are only offered to such investors in those countries and regions in accordance with applicable laws and regulations. BMO Financial Group is a service mark of Bank of Montreal (BMO). Investment products are: NOT FDIC INSURED - NO BANK GUARANTEE - MAY LOSE VALUE 2012 BMO Financial Corp.

5 MONEGY MONEGY BROAD HIGH YIELD BOND COMPOSITE ANNUAL DISCLOSURE PRESENTATION N.A. is shown on composite dispersion information is not statistically meaningful due to an insufficient number of portfolios in the composite for the entire year. N.A is shown on the 3 Yr Std Deviation for the composite and index because 36 monthly returns are not available on the composite. **Strategy Assets are shown as supplemental information. Strategy assets include composite and non-composite accounts that have the same investment mandate. Non-composite accounts are excluded from the composite due to size, specific client guidelines, or other strategy limitations. *Results shown for the year 2010 represent partial period performance from July 1, 2010 through December 31, The Monegy Broad High Yield Bond Composite contains fully discretionary highly diversified portfolios of high yield bonds focusing primarily on the U.S. market with an objective of maximizing the total return, both interest income and gains for a given risk appetite. For comparison purposes, the composite is measured against the Merrill Lynch, U.S. High Yield, Master II Constrained Index. The minimum account size for this composite is $20 million. The composite was created July 1, Prior to December 31, 2011, the composite was named the Broad High Yield Composite. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Monegy is a member of BMO Financial Group Trademark of Bank of Montreal and a trade name used by the Bank of Montreal and BMO Harris N.A. in Canada and the US. Monegy, Inc. is a registered investment advisor with the SEC, and wholly owned subsidiary of BMO Asset Management Corp. Prior to June 1, 2012 Monegy, Inc. was known as HIM Monegy, Inc. Prior to 2003 the firm was know as BMO Monegy. Monegy is a registered trademark used by Monegy, Inc. Monegy claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS ) and has prepared and presented this report in compliance with the GIPS standards. Monegy has been independently verified for the periods October 1, 1999 through September 30, A copy of the verification reports are available upon request. Verification assesses whether (1) the firm has complied with all the composite construction requirements of the GIPS standards on a firm-wide basis and (2) the firm s policies and procedures are designed to calculate and present performance in compliance with the GIPS standards. Verification does not ensure the accuracy of any composite specific composite presentation. The firm maintains a complete list and description of composites, which is available upon request. Results are based on fully discretionary accounts under management, including those accounts no longer with the firm. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The U.S. Dollar is the currency used to express performance. Returns are presented gross and net of management fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Net of fee performance was calculated using the highest management fee of 0.50%. Gross of fee performance returns are presented before management fees, custodial fees and withholding taxes, but net of all trading expenses. The annual composite dispersion presented is an equal-weighted standard deviation calculated for the accounts in the composite the entire year. Additional information regarding the policies for valuing portfolios, calculating performance, and preparing compliant presentations are available upon request. The investment management fee schedule for the composite is: 0.50% on the first $50 million, 0.45% on the next $50 million, and 0.40% thereafter. Actual investment advisory fees incurred by clients may vary. MONEGY MONEGY LOAN COMPOSITE ANNUAL DISCLOSURE PRESENTATION N.A. is shown on Composite Dispersion -Information is not statistically meaningful due to an insufficient number of portfolios in the composite for the entire year. *Benchmark from 01/01/2012 forward is S&P/LSTA BB Loan Index. Prior to January 1, 2012 the benchmark was the S&P BB Leverage Loan Index. Prior to January 1, 2005, the benchmark was the BAS High Yield Loan Index **Strategy Assets are shown as supplemental information. Strategy assets include composite and non-composite accounts that have the same investment mandate. Non-composite accounts are excluded from the composite due to size, specific client guidelines, or other strategy limitations.

6 The Monegy High Yield Loan Composite contains fully discretionary portfolios of leveraged loans, focusing primarily on non-investment grade rated companies in the U.S. market with an objective of maximizing the total return, both interest income and gains for a given risk appetite. Currency Forwards or Swaps may be used for hedging purposes. For comparison purposes, the composite will be benchmarked to the S&P/LSTA BB Loan Index. Prior to January 1, 2012 the composite was measured against the S&P BB Leverage Loan Index. Prior to January 1, 2005, the benchmark was the BAS High Yield Loan Index. The indices were changed to be more representative of the composite strategy. The minimum account size for this composite is $5 million. The Composite was created January 1, 2000 and had performance until December 31, 2008 when the composite was closed due to no more client accounts investing in the strategy. The composite was re-opened January 1, Prior to January 1, 2012 the composite had been called the High Yield Loan Segregated Composite. Monegy is a member of BMO Financial Group Trademark of Bank of Montreal and a trade name used by the Bank of Montreal and BMO Harris N.A. in Canada and the US. Monegy, Inc. is a registered investment advisor with the SEC, and wholly owned subsidiary of BMO Asset Management Corp. Prior to June 1, 2012 Monegy, Inc. was know as HIM Monegy, Inc. Prior to 2003 the firm was know as BMO Monegy. Monegy is a registered trademark used by Monegy, Inc. Monegy claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS ) and has prepared and presented this report in compliance with the GIPS standards. Monegy has been independently verified for the periods October 1, 1999 through June 30, A copy of the verification reports are available upon request. Verification assesses whether (1) the firm has complied with all the composite construction requirements of the GIPS standards on a firm-wide basis and (2) the firm s policies and procedures are designed to calculate and present performance in compliance with the GIPS standards. Verification does not ensure the accuracy of any specific composite presentation. The firm maintains a complete list and description of composites, which is available upon request. An account will not be removed from a composite due to a significant cash flow. In the event of a regular occurrence of cash flows that will prevent the account from being managed in a fashion consistent with the other accounts in the composite, this would deem the account non-discretionary, and therefore the account would be removed from the composite. Results are based on fully discretionary accounts under management, including those accounts no longer with the firm. Settlement date valuation was used to calculate performance prior to January 1, Past performance is not indicative of future results. The U.S. Dollar is the currency used to express performance. Returns are presented gross and net of management fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Net of fee performance was calculated using the highest management fee of 0.65%. Gross of fee performance returns are presented before management fees, custodial fees and withholding taxes, but net of all trading expenses. The annual composite dispersion presented is an equal-weighted standard deviation calculated for the accounts in the composite the entire year. Additional information regarding the policies for valuing portfolios, calculating performance, and preparing compliant presentations are available upon request. The investment management fee schedule for the composite is: 0.65% on the first $50 million, 0.60% on the next $50 million, and 0.55% thereafter. From January 1, 2000 through December 31, 2008 the management fee was 50 bps Actual investment advisory fees incurred by clients may vary. Prior to 2009 Carve-outs are included in this composite and performance reflects total segment returns. The percentage of carve-outs is 100% for all years prior to The accounts from which carve-outs are taken do not hold a cash balance. Purchases are funded by the client upon purchase and proceeds from sold assets are returned to the client upon the close of the sale. This is not intended to serve as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any company, industry or security. The opinions expressed here reflect our judgment at this date and are subject to change. Information has been obtained from sources we consider to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee the accuracy. This publication is prepared for general information only. This material does not constitute investment advice and is not intended as an endorsement of any specific investment. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investment involves risk. Market conditions and trends will fluctuate. The value of an investment as well as income associated with investments may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Investments cannot be made in an index. i BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Index (H0A0) ii BofA Merrill Lynch BB-B US High Yield Constrained Index (HUC4) iii S&P/LSTA All Loan Index iv S&P/LSTA BB Loan Index v BofA ML US Corporate Index (C0A0) vi BofA ML High Yield Emerging Corporate Plus Index (EMHB) vii Monegy and BofA Merrill Lynch. Inception Date October Returns reflect the Quality High Yield Bond Composite, gross of fees. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Supplemental Information. Please see complete GIPS compliant presentation at the end of this document. The market has been represented by the BofA Merrill Lynch BB-B US High Yield Constrained Index. The U.S. dollar is the currency used to express performance. Returns are based on monthly composite returns linked on a rolling basis and include the reinvestment of all income. Return does not take into account any fees, expenses, taxation or inflation. viii All Monegy returns gross of fees