Getting Comfortable with the High Yield Corporate Bond Market

Transcription

1 Getting Comfortable with the High Yield Corporate Bond Market GELD Institutional Investors Congress 19 th September 2018 Donal Kinsella, CAIA, FIA VP, Institutional Portfolio Manager FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY. NOT FOR ONWARD DISTRIBUTION.

2 Eaton Vance Corporation

3 3 Eaton Vance Corp. Our Firm Publicly traded global asset management firm with a history dating back to Offices in North America, UK, Germany, Japan, Singapore, and Australia. $444.1 billion in assets under management investment professionals globally with over 16 years average industry experience; 187 CFA Charterholders. 1 Eaton Vance is a signatory of the Principles for Responsible Investment (UN PRI)* Leveraged Credit: 13% ($55.7b) Other Fixed Income: 14% ($62.4b) AUM by Investment Mandate 1 Alternatives: 3% ($13.6b) Portfolio Implementation: 24% ($110.8b) 2 Our Culture Focus Investment management is our only business Equity: 27% ($118.8b) Exposure Management: 19% ($82.7b) 3 Ownership Structure Voting control by senior management ensures we control our destiny Broad Range of Capabilities Assist institutions in building portfolios designed for the outcomes they require Specialised Expertise Multi-affiliate model brings range of specialised investment approaches Private Client: 15% ($64.7b) AUM by Market Channel 1 Institutional: 40% ($175.5b) 4 Commitment Eaton Vance has been partnering with institutional clients for more than 75 years *Implemented by the United Nations Secretary-General, the Principles for Responsible Investment were developed by an international group of institutional investors reflecting the increasing relevance of environmental, social and corporate governance issues to investment practices. Intermediary: 45% ($203.9b) 1 Eaton Vance Management and its affiliates as of 30 June Portfolio Implementation includes Parametric Seattle s centralised portfolio management, Custom Core and specialty index assets. 3 Exposure Management includes Parametric Minneapolis s custom market capture strategies and derivative strategies to manage a portfolio s exposures or risk profile. 4 Eaton Vance Management s institutional assets represent 8.3% of the total firm assets, with the remaining percentage representing institutional assets of EVM affiliates.

4 4 Integrated Global Resources & Approach With integrated global resources across asset classes, the HY team leverages the time, tools and resources of several Eaton Vance investment teams Team members in Boston and London Global Income Team 14 PMs 17 Research Analysts Equity Team 10 PMs 28 Research Analysts High Yield Team 4 PMs 15 Research Analysts 2 Traders Bank Loan Team 4 PMs 19 Research Analysts Diversified Fixed Income Team 11 PMs 14 Research Analysts GLOBAL RESOURCES 43 PMs 93 Research Analysts Source: Eaton Vance, data as of 30/06/2018.

5 High Yield Bond Markets Valuations, Fundamentals and Technicals

6 6 Credit Markets Still Have Some Yield Valuations: High yield credit markets still offering A LOT more yield than core fixed income holdings 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% German 5 year Austrian 5 year German 30 year Euro Corporates Euro High Yield Emerging Market Corporates Global High Yield US High Yield Base Currency EUR Sources: ICE Data Indices, LLC. As of 31/08/2018. Generic government bond tickers used and ER00, HP00, EMCL and HYDF for broader market indices Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

7 Default Rate Distress Ratio 7 Low distress ratios lead to a benign default outlook in the near term Fundamentals: Default expectations still very low 16% Global Default Rates and Distress Ratios 90% 14% 80% 12% 70% 10% 60% 8% 6% 4% 50% 40% 30% 20% 2% 10% 0% 0% Default Rate Distress Ratio Sources: Moody s, ICE Data Indices, LLC. As of 30/06/2018. Default rates are trailing 12 month figures. Distress ratio measured as percentage of HYDF with spreads over 1000 based on par value. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

8 8 Fundamentals in Both the US and Europe Have Modestly Improved Fundamentals: Companies ability to service their debts remain high 6x US High Yield Leverage 6x European High Yield Leverage 5x 4.2x 5x 4x 4x 3.8x 3x 3x 2x '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 2x '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 7x US High Yield Interest Coverage 7x European High Yield Interest Coverage 6.3x 6x 6x 5x 4.6x 5x 4x 4x 3x 3x 2x '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 2x '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Sources: JPMorgan as of 31/03/2018. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results..

9 9 US & European High Yield Fund Flows Technicals: Both the US & Europe have experienced net outflows in 2017 and YTD 2018 (bn's) US HY Cumulative Flows EHY Cumulative Flows Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Source: JPMorgan and Lipper as of 30/06/2018. For illustrative purposes only.

10 10 High Yield Net Supply Technicals: Net new issuance in USD has been declining in recent years $ Bn 600 USD Net New Issuance Bn European Currency Net New Issuance YTD YTD 2Q17 2Q18 Gross Issuance Redemptions Coupon Net Minus Coupon YTD YTD 2Q172Q18 Gross Issuance Redemptions Coupon Net Minus Coupon Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Source: JPMorgan as of 30/06/2018. For illustrative purposes only.

11 Go Global

12 12 Significant Growth of Global Universe The breadth of the Global High Yield universe has widened and is no longer a US consideration $ Bn 2,500 2,000 47% 1,500 1,000 53% % 12% 77% 0 88% YTD US Issuance Non-US Issuance Source: ICE Data Indices, LLC. As of 30/06/2018. Global High Yield is based on ICE BofAML Global High Yield Index (HW00).

13 Bps Bps 13 Market Dislocations are Ever-Present US vs. European High Yield like-for-like spreads 2,500 2,000 2,157 European HY Index U.S. HY Index 1,500 1,453 1,000 1, Difference (100) (54) 417 (85) 390 (65) (36) Difference Average Median (200) Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Source: Eaton Vance, ICE Data Indices, LLC. As of 30/06/2018. For illustrative purposes only. US and European High Yield Spread data is option-adjusted, ratings-normalised, and excludes energy and commodities. US HY Index: ICE BofAML US High Yield Index. European HY Index: ICE BofAML European Currency Developed Market High Yield ex Sub-Financials Constrained Index

14 14 Investment Process: Taking Advantage of Opportunities Issuer expertise in one market can translate to outsized return opportunities in another Price AMC Entertainment USD '26 & GBP '24 Bond Prices Price $ Price Bps 550 AMC Entertainment USD '26 & GBP '24 Z-Spread c.130bps c.60bps 300 Z-Spread $ Z-Spread Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Source: Eaton Vance, 31/01/2017. Data for 28/10/ /01/2017. For illustrative purposes only.

15 With Eaton Vance

16 16 Global High Yield Bond Strategy Performance Global High Yield Bond Composite: Results as of 30/06/2018 8% 7% 7.07% 6.54% 6% 5.75% 5% 4% 3% 3.06% 2.54% 2.69% 2% 1% 0% -1% 0.52% 0.80% 0.40% 0.19% 0.12% -0.06% 3 Months YTD 1 Year Since Inception (01/07/2015) Global High Yield Bond Composite (Gross) Global High Yield Bond Composite (Net) ICE BofAML Developed Markets High-Yield ex-subordinated Financial Index - Hedged USD Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Sources: Eaton Vance and ICE Data Indices, LLC, data as of 30/06/2018. This information is for illustrative purposes only, is subject to change at any time and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security. The information is based upon the total assets of all fee-paying discretionary accounts comprising the Global High-Yield Bond Composite for the periods shown. Gross returns for the Composite are calculated in US dollars, include the reinvestment of distributions, and are after transaction costs, any foreign withholding taxes and other direct expenses, but before management fees, custody charges and other indirect expenses. Such fees and expenses would reduce the results shown. This information is supplemental to the Composite's fully-compliant GIPS presentation contained herein. It is not possible to directly invest in an index. Performance over one year is annualised.

17 17 Global High Yield Bond Strategy Performance 3-Year Up- vs. Down-Market Capture: Global High Yield Bond Composite (Gross) July Upside 2015 / Downside June 2018 (Single Computation) July June 2018 (Single Computation) Upside% Eaton Vance Global High Yield Bond ICE BofAML Developed Markets High Yield x Subordinated Financial Index (USD Hedged) Downside% Upside / Downside Table July June 2018 (Single Computation) # of Months Average Return (%) Month (%) 1-Year (%) Market Benchmark (%) Up Down Up Down Best Worst Best Worst Up Capture Down Capture R-Squared Eaton Vance Global High Yield Bond ICE BofAML Developed Markets High Yield x Subordinated Financial Index (USD Hedged) Source: Zephyr StyleADVISOR, data as of 30/06/2018. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. For net return, please refer to slide 16. This information is for illustrative purposes only, is subject to change at any time and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security. The information is based upon the total assets of all fee-paying discretionary accounts comprising the Eaton Vance Global High Yield Bond Composite for the periods shown. Gross returns for the Composite are calculated in U.S. dollars, include the reinvestment of distributions, and are after transaction costs, any foreign withholding taxes and other direct expenses, but before management fees, custody charges and other indirect expenses. Such fees and expenses would reduce the results shown. This information is supplemental to the Composite s Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS ) presentation contained herein. Please refer to the GIPS presentation and the Appendix for important additional performance information and disclosures. It is not possible to directly invest in an index. Past performance does not predict future results.

18 18 Eaton Vance International (Ireland) Global High Yield Bond Fund Characteristics Operational EVI (IRL) Global High Yield Bond Fund Inception Date 22/04/2017 Vehicle Structure Domicile Base Currency Management Fee/ Other Expenses ISIN (I2$) Share Classes UCITS Ireland US Dollars (USD) 0.55% / 0.10% (capped) IE00BF2CM462 I2 USD, I2 EUR, I2 GBP S2 USD, S2 EUR, S2 GBP Z2 USD, Z2 GBP M2 USD N2 USD Benchmark Investment EVI (IRL) Global High Yield Bond Fund ICE BofAML Developed Market High Yield ex Sub-Financials Index Number of Issuers Top 10 Issuers Sector Constraints Expected Tracking Error Target Outperformance FX Hedging 15 20% of assets Maximum 25% of assets basis points basis points over a full cycle 100% hedged to base currency (USD) Share class hedging is also applied to non- USD share classes Source: Eaton Vance, as at 31/08/2018. *Where S = seed share class and 2 = accumulating share class. Other share classes available, as required. ICE BofAML Developed Markets High-Yield Ex-Subordinated Financial Index (Hedged USD) is an unmanaged index of below investment-grade, developed-market bonds, with a 2% issuer cap that is rebalanced each month. Unless otherwise stated, index returns do not reflect the effect of any applicable sales charges, commissions, expenses, taxes or leverage, as applicable. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. ICE BofAML indices are not for redistribution or other uses; provided as is, without warranties, and with no liability. Eaton Vance has prepared this report and ICE Data Indices, LLC does not endorse it, or guarantee, review, or endorse Eaton Vance s products. BofAML is a licensed registered trademark of Bank of America Corporation in the United States and other countries.

19 19 Notes to Schedule: Firm Eaton Vance Management Notes to Schedule: Firm Organisation Eaton Vance Management (EVM or the Company) is an SEC registered investment adviser with its headquarters located in Boston, Massachusetts. Since 1924, the Company has provided a full range of investment products to corporations, public agencies, labour unions, hospitals, charitable and educational organisations, individuals and various qualified investment plans. It supplies investment advisory services through several SEC registered investment advisers and a trust company EVM, Boston Management and Research (BMR), Eaton Vance Investment Counsel (EVIC), Eaton Vance Trust Company (EVTC) and Eaton Vance Management International Limited (EVMI) and Eaton Vance Advisers International Ltd (EVAIL). The Company is defined as all six entities operating under the Eaton Vance brand. Effective May 1, 2011, EVM s Real Estate Investment Group, a constituent of EVM, is operating as a separate division of EVM, and its assets are no longer represented in EVM s total assets under management. Performance Returns Unless otherwise stated, composite returns and market values are reported in US dollars. All performance returns are presented as total returns, which include the reinvestment of all income and distributions. Returns for periods less than one year are not annualised. Information regarding policies for valuing portfolios, calculating performance and preparing compliant presentations is available upon request. Composite Dispersion Annual internal return dispersion is represented by the highest and lowest returns of all portfolios within a composite. Internal dispersion is shown only for composites that held at least six accounts for the full year. Internal dispersion is shown as not applicable, N/A, for composites that held five or fewer accounts for the full year. External composite and benchmark dispersion are shown to demonstrate the variability of returns over time, and is represented by the three-year ex-post standard deviation of monthly returns. External composite and benchmark dispersion are shown as not applicable, N/A, for composites with less than 3 years of monthly history, as of the most current quarter-end. External dispersion is not shown for composite inception through December 2010, as it is not required for periods prior to Other Matters A complete list of all composites maintained by EVM with descriptions and related performance results for each is available upon request. To receive a complete list and description of the Company s composites and/or a presentation that adheres to the GIPS, contact the Performance Department at (800) ext or write to Eaton Vance Management, Two International Place, Boston, MA 02110, Attention GIPS Performance Department, 3rd floor.

20 20 Notes to Schedule: Composite Eaton Vance Management Global High-Yield Bond Composite (SA 179) Notes to Schedule Composite Definition The investment objective of this style is to maximise total return from current income and capital appreciation. Accounts in this composite seek to achieve the objective by investing in below investment-grade bonds without specific restrictions within credit-quality categories. Accounts may engage in derivative transactions, including futures contracts and options thereon, forwards and credit-default swaps, to enhance returns or as a substitute for the purchase of securities. New accounts to the Composite are included at the beginning of the second full month that occurs after a minimum ten-day period under investment management. Closed accounts are included through the last full month under management. No selective periods of performance have been used. Benchmark The Composite s benchmark is ICE BofAML Developed Markets High-Yield ex-subordinated Financial Index Hedged USD. It is an unmanaged index of below investment-grade, developed-market bonds, with a 2% issuer cap that is rebalanced each month. Gross and Net Returns Composite gross returns are after transaction costs, any foreign withholding taxes and other direct expenses, but before management fees, custody charges and other indirect expenses. Composite net returns are calculated by deducting the maximum management fee, 0.50%, charged by EVM for a separately managed account of this style from the gross performance returns. The complete fee schedule is as follows: 0.50% on total assets. Notes to Composite The creation date of this composite is June 2015, and the inception date is July Clients or prospective clients should not assume that they will have an investment experience similar to that indicated by past performance results, as shown on the Schedule.

21 21 Global High-Yield Bond Composite Eaton Vance Management Global High-Yield Bond Composite (SA 179) Schedule of Performance Returns Reported In: USD Period Gross Returns Net Returns Benchmark Return Number of Accounts Internal Dispersion High Internal Dispersion Low Composite Assets (000) Total Firm Assets (000) Composite Assets as % of Firm Assets Composite 3-Yr External Dispersion Benchmark 3-Yr External Dispersion 2015^ NA NA 63, ,199, NA NA NA NA 11, ,832, NA NA NA NA 12, ,976, NA NA ** Inception Date: 01/07/2015 ^ Represents data from 30/06/2015 through 31/12/2015 % Non Fee Paying Annualized Returns for Periods Ending: 31/12/2017 YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 7 Year 10 Year Since Inception** Composite Gross Composite Net Benchmark Eaton Vance Management (the Firm) claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS ) and has prepared and presented this report in compliance with the GIPS standards. The Firm has been independently verified for the period January 1, 1996 through December 31, A copy of the verification report is available upon request. Verification asseses whether (1) the Firm has complied with all composite construction requirements of the GIPS standards on a firm-wide basis and (2) the Firm's policies and procedures are designed to calculate and present performance in compliance with the GIPS standards. Verification does not ensure the accuracy of any specific composite presentation. Please see Notes to Schedule accompanying these returns

22 22 Important Additional Information and Disclosures Source of all data: Eaton Vance as of 30/06/2018, unless otherwise stated. This presentation is for informational and illustrative purposes only. This material does not constitute investment advice and should not be viewed as a current or past recommendation or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any particular securities or to adopt any investment strategy. This information has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other third party sources believed to be reliable. However, no assurances are provided regarding the reliability of such information and Eaton Vance has not sought to independently verify information taken from public and third party sources. Any investment views and market opinions/analyses expressed constitute judgments as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change at any time without notice. Different views may be expressed based on different investment styles, objectives, views or philosophies. Each investor s portfolio is individually managed and may differ significantly from the information discussed in terms of portfolio holdings, characteristics and performance. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets described were or will be profitable. There are no guarantees concerning the achievement of investment objectives, allocations, target returns or measurements such as alpha, tracking error, stock weightings and information ratios. The use of tools cannot guarantee performance. This material is presented for informational and illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell, or to adopt any particular investment strategy. This material has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other third party sources believed to be reliable, however, no assurances are provided and Eaton Vance has not sought to independently verify information taken from public and third party sources. Information contained in this material is current as of the date indicated and is subject to change at any time without notice. Future results may differ significantly from those stated, depending on factors such as changes in the financial markets or general economic conditions. Please contact Eaton Vance Management (International) Limited if you require further clarification on the source or calculation methodology of any data or information presented within this material or its associated attachments. Sectors and portfolio characteristics mentioned are included only to provide a snap-shot illustrative sample based upon the portfolio manager s current investment strategy as of the date indicated. There is no assurance that any portfolio characteristics mentioned in this document are currently held or experienced in a portfolio or will remain in the portfolio at the time you receive this report. It should not be assumed that any of the sectors were or will be profitable, or that any recommendations in the future will be profitable. Portfolio characteristics and performance will vary for each client. This is no guarantee that a particular portfolio will hold any, or all, or the sectors mentioned. Not all of Eaton Vance s recommendations have been or will be profitable. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for all investors. Investing entails risks and there can be no assurance that Eaton Vance, or its affiliates, will achieve profits or avoid incurring losses. It is not possible to directly invest in an index. This material is issued by Eaton Vance Management (International) Limited ("EVMI") who is authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Conduct Authority. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to invest in the strategy mentioned herein. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Investment return and principal value will fluctuate. Performance is for the stated time period only; due to market volatility, the strategy's performance may be lower or higher than quoted. This communication and any investment or service to which it may relate is exclusively intended for persons who are Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties for the purposes of the FCA Rules. This communication is not intended for use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

23 23 Important Additional Information and Disclosures The value of the portfolio is sensitive to stock market volatility, adverse market, economic, political, regulatory, geopolitical and other conditions, in international markets, these risks may be more significant. Financial derivatives instruments can be used to take both long and short positions, be highly volatile, result in economic leverage (which can magnify losses), and involve risks in addition to the risks of the underlying instrument on which the derivative is based, such as counterparty, correlation and liquidity risk. If a counterparty is unable to honour its commitments, the value of the portfolio may decline and/or could experience delays in the return of collateral or other assets held by the counterparty. No one strategy is a complete investment programme, the value of the portfolio may fall as well as rise. The strategy will attempt to hedge out some of the currency exposure, whereby such hedging may not be successful. The strategy may or may not hedge some of its currency exposure against the US Dollar in its underlying investments. Changes in exchange rates may lead to fluctuations in the value of your investment. An imbalance in supply and demand in the income market may result in valuation uncertainties and greater volatility, less liquidity, widening credit spreads and a lack of price transparency in the market. Investments in income securities may be affected by changes in the creditworthiness of the issuer and are subject to the risk of non-payment of principal and interest. The value of income securities also may decline because of real or perceived concerns about the issuer s ability to make principal and interest payments. As interest rates rise, the value of certain income investments is likely to decline. Investments involving higher risk do not necessarily mean higher return potential. Diversification cannot ensure a profit or eliminate the risk of loss. Debt securities are subject to risks that the issuer will not meet its payment obligations. Low rated or equivalent unrated debt securities of the type in which a portfolio will invest generally offer a higher return than higher rated debt securities, but also are subject to greater risks that the issuer will default. Unrated bonds are generally regarded as being speculative. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for all investors. Actual portfolio holdings will vary for each client and there is no guarantee that a particular client s account will hold any, or all, or the securities/sectors mentioned. Not all of Eaton Vance s recommendations have been or will be profitable. Any references to future returns should not be construed as an estimate or promise of the results a client portfolio may achieve. The returns experienced by a particular client will be different from those included in this presentation. This presentation may include statements that are not historical facts, referred to as forward-looking statements. Future results may differ significantly from those stated in forward-looking statements, depending on factors such as changes in securities or financial markets or general economic conditions. Investing entails risks and there can be no assurance that Eaton Vance (and its affiliates) will achieve profits or avoid incurring losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

24 24 Important Additional Information and Disclosures This material is presented and issued by Eaton Vance Management (International) Limited ( EVMI ), which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom and is located at 125 Old Broad Street, London, EC2N 1AR, United Kingdom. This material is for Professional Clients ONLY. EVMI is a wholly owned subsidiary of Eaton Vance Management. Eaton Vance Management ( EVM ) is an investment adviser registered with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission ( SEC ) and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Eaton Vance Corp. ( EVC ). The non-voting common stock of EVC, parent company of EVM, is publicly traded on the NYSE under the symbol EV. For purposes of this presentation, Eaton Vance or the Firm is defined as all three entities operating under the Eaton Vance brand. EVMI markets the services of the following strategic affiliates: Parametric Portfolio Associates LLC ("PPA") is an investment advisor registered with the SEC and is a majority owned subsidiary of EVC. Hexavest Inc. ("Hexavest") is an investment advisor based in Montreal, Canada and registered with the SEC in the United States, and has a strategic partnership with Eaton Vance, who owns 49% of the stock of Hexavest. Calvert Research and Management ("CRM") is an investment advisor registered with the SEC and is a wholly owned subsidiary of EVM. In Germany, Eaton Vance Management (International) Limited, Deutschland ( EVMID ) is a branch office of EVMI. EVMID has been approved as a branch of EVMI by BaFin.

25 For more information, please contact: Thomas Body VP, Business Development Director, Head of Germany and Austria Telephone: Thank you. Eaton Vance Management (International) Limited 125 Old Broad Street London, EC2N 1AR, United Kingdom global.eatonvance.com