2018 A-Share Auto Sector Outlook

Transcription

1 Equity Research Auto A-Share Auto Sector Outlook Steady growth and restructuring to remain key tone in sector Ou Yafei SFC CE No. BFN GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited 29-3/F, Li Po Chun Chambers 189 Des Voeux Road Central Hong Kong Car purchase tax discount expiring soon; sector policy tone still focused on stable growth and restructuring Tax incentives for small-engine vehicles propped up the auto industry in 216 and 217. As prospective car buyers have brought forward their purchases in order to benefit from the tax cut, the expiry of the tax discount may put pressure on auto sales in. However, from a long-term perspective, driven by progrowth policies, stricter environmental regulations and consumption upgrade, the auto sector still has growth potential. As China s auto industry represents a relatively large proportion of GDP, we believe the overall industry policy stance will remain positive as the government seeks to maintain stable economic growth. Upcoming policy measures might be more focused on promoting economic restructuring: e.g. environmental protection could be an important aspect of policy making. According to the Ministry of Environmental Protection, as of the end of 216, the number of vehicles belonging to the National II emission standard or below exceeded 23m units, accounting for 12.8% of total car ownership. However, the four major pollutants these vehicles let out contributed to 58.7% of total vehicle emission. Going forward, new driving restriction policies targeting high-emission vehicles are likely to be introduced, which should support stable auto sales in and even further into the future. Investment highlights: Focus on companies with stable profitability and cheap valuations For PV names, we like SAIC Motor (614 CH), a blue-chip stock with stable earnings growth and low valuation. For auto component manufacturers, we believe that the rise of domestic auto brands and the relocation of the global auto parts manufacturing center will boost the market shares of Chinese component companies. We prefer HUAYU Automotive Systems (6741 CH), Wanliyang (2434 CH), Fulin Precision Machining (3432 CH) and Kunming Yunnei Power (93 CH). For the heavy duty truck sector, we believe that industry leaders have considerable re-rating potential in. We like CNHTC Jinan Truck (951 CH) as its market share is likely to increase further relying on new launches, and Weifu High-Technology (581 CH) given low valuation, high entry barriers and stable earnings. We also suggest watching Weichai Power (338 CH) and FAWER Automotive Parts (3 CH). In addition, we highlight Beiqi Foton Motor (6166 CH) whose P/B valuation offers a margin of safety and which is likely to restructure its businesses to increase ROE. Sub-sector outlook Passenger vehicles: In our view, it might become a normal state for the sales volume of passenger vehicles to grow steadily at a low rate during -22. Industry leaders stability and new launch cycle are worth watching. In addition, with the withdrawal of government subsidies and the fuel consumption and NEV production double scoring system, the development of the NEV industry will become more market-oriented; the focus of industry competition will shift towards company s product offerings and level of market orientation. Auto companies with a good product mix of both traditional vehicles and NEPVs are more likely to stand out. Commercial vehicles: We think the sales of medium and heavy duty trucks will become much less volatile now compared with due to: 1) capacity reduction and rising industry concentration; 2) the alleviation of excess truck ownership thanks to truck overload regulations; and 3) an extremely low level of inventories at vehicle dealers. We believe that in the sales of heavy duty trucks will remain stable sector profits may exceed market expectations even with slightly negative sales growth or flat sales. In the This is a summary of a report originally written in Chinese. Please contact us for more information of the original report. The Chinese version shall prevail in the event of any discrepancy between the two versions.

2 sector outlook long term, with product upgrade, there will be substantial room for sector ASP, net profit and net profit margin to increase. As for the coach market, we think the withdrawal of subsidies will help steer the sector towards more sustainable growth. Going forward, the core competency of companies will lie in technological advancement and product innovation. Auto components: The markets for core components have relatively high technical entry barriers and profit margins, as well as more stable gross margins. In the backdrop of decelerating vehicle sales growth, ordinary component manufacturers have weaker bargaining power. As such, investors should guard against the impact of product price declines on these companies profitability. Valuation analysis given the current stage of sector development Based on our research into auto companies in the US and Japan, as the auto industry enters a mature stage of development with slower growth, the valuations of auto stocks tend to stabilize. Based on the previous auto sector tax incentive cycle in China during , sector fundamentals came under pressure following the withdrawal of preferential tax policies, which made it harder for high sector valuations to sustain. Risks: Economic growth being lower than expected, auto industry policies falling short of expectations, and market competition intensifying. Sector stock picks SAIC Motor (614 CH) The company has stable earnings growth, low valuation and high dividend yield. The steady sales growth of its JV brands has supported earnings growth, while its product cycle has brought rapid sales growth of its own-brand products. The company is actively pushing for business transformation and upgrade, while extending its presence along the industry chain, which is likely to enlarge its growth upside. HUAYU Automotive Systems (6741 CH) The company has stable earnings growth, low valuation and high dividend payouts. Its auto interior deco business is globally competitive. The company has acquired a 5% stake in Shanghai Koito Automotive Lamp Co., and has entered into a joint-venture agreement with Magna in a bid to accelerate global component business consolidation. Meanwhile, the company is actively seeking new growth potential by exploring the NEV and intelligent driving areas. CNHTC Jinan Truck (951 CH) The company is a potential target to be involved in SOE reform. In the long term, as the truck industry focuses more on higher-power and mid/high-end products, a higher sales mix of its T-series vehicles will enhance the company s earnings. In the short term, the heavy duty truck sector should maintain strong business conditions, while the benefits of truck overload regulations will continue to play out, providing substantial room for re-rating. Weifu High-Technology (581 CH) The company has stable earnings and products that have high entry barriers. Even using earnings from 215, a year of weak industry performance, its valuation is still comparable to global peers (~17x). The company s current P/E valuation reflects expectations of a significant profit decline. If the company posts stable earnings performance or a higher-than-expected dividend payout ratio, it is likely to see significant re-rating. Meanwhile, the company is planning to set up an M&A fund to support its external expansion. 2

3 sector outlook Beiqi Foton Motor (6166 CH) The company produces both passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles, and it has built an edge in commercial vehicles. Going forward, the company may enhance its ROE by restructuring its underperforming businesses to enhance its ROE. Its current P/B ratio of 1.2x offers a margin of safety. Figure 1: Monthly auto sales volume (1k units) and YoY growth from Jan 215 to Sept 汽车销量 Auto sales / 左轴 volume (LHS) 同比增速 YoY (RHS) / 右轴 3% 3 25% 25 2% % 1% 5% 1 % 5-5% -1% Sources: GF Securities Development & Research Center Figure 2: Industrial production value of auto industry (Rmb trn) and its proportion of GDP in 汽车工业总产值 Industrial production / 左轴 value of auto industry 汽车工业总产值占 As % of GDP GDP 比重 / 右轴 12% 8 7 1% 6 8% 5 4 6% 3 4% 2 1 2% % Sources: NBS, GF Securities Development & Research Center 3

4 sector outlook Figure 3: Emission trends of existing vehicles in China 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 国一前 Pre-National I 国一 National I 国二 National II National 国三 III 国四 National IV 国五及以上 National V and above Sources: Ministry of Environmental Protection, GF Securities Development & Research Center Figure 4: Pollutant contribution of vehicles under different emission standards in 216 National V and above, 3.2% 国 Ⅴ 及以上, 3.2% 国 Ⅳ, 19.7% National IV, 19.7% Pre-national I, 国 34.2% I 前, 34.2% National III, 18.4% 国 Ⅲ, 18.4% 国 Ⅱ, 6.1% National II, 6.1% 国 I, 18.4% National I, 18.4% Sources: Ministry of Environmental Protection, GF Securities Development & Research Center 4

5 sector outlook Figure 5: Car ownership per 1 people (unit) for the U.S., Korea, Japan and China in 213 Figure 6: China GDP per capital (US$) vs. car ownership per 1 people (unit) GDP per 人均 GDP/ 左轴 capita (LHS) Ownership rate per 1 每千人保有量 / 右轴 people 美国 U.S. 韩国 Korea 日本 Japan China 中国 Sources: CEIC, GF Securities Development & Research Center Sources: China automotive industry yearbook, NBS, GF Securities Development & Research Center Figure 7: 2Q1-3Q17 passenger vehicle sector ROE 12% 净资产收益率 ROE 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 1Q2 1Q4 11Q2 11Q4 12Q2 12Q4 13Q2 13Q4 14Q2 14Q4 15Q2 15Q4 16Q2 16Q4 17Q2 Sources: Company data, Wind, GF Securities Development & Research Center 5

6 sector outlook Figure 8: new model launches from major auto companies Company Model Type /facelift SAIC Volkswagen SAIC General Motors SAIC Passenger Vehicle Branch FAW-Volkswagen Automotive GAC Motor Energy type Comprehensive fuel consumption/ driving range Launch POLO Small passenger car Gasoline 1H18 T-Cross Small SUV Gasoline LAVIDA EV Medium passenger car Tiguan NF PHEV Buick Avenir Compact SUV Pure electric Medium passenger car Gasoline Envision Compact SUV Facelift Gasoline date End of 1.9L/5KM Beginning of Beginning of Cadillac XT4 Small SUV Gasoline Malibu Medium passenger ca Facelift Gasoline MG ZS Small SUV Beginning of 1.5L-1.6L/32KM RX7 Medium SUV Gasoline RX8 Medium SUV Gasoline Vision-E Medium SUV ZS Pure electric Small SUV emg6 Small passenger car ZS Small SUV GA4 EV Passenger vehicle MG Coupe Pure electric Pure electric Pure electric 4.39L/53KM 1H L 2H18 Q2L Small SUV Gasoline T-ROC Compact SUV Gasoline T-CROSS SUV Gasoline Magotan SUV e-golf SUV R Grid SUV Gasoline Volkswagen cheap cars Small SUV 219 GA4 Compact passenger car GS5 Upgrade Compact SUV GM8 MPV GAC Honda Motor Crosstour Passenger car Facelift Gasoline 6

7 sector outlook GAC Toyota Motor Geely Auto Toyota C-HR 8 th generation Camry Small SUV Passenger car Facelift Gasoline LYNK&CO 2 Crossover SUV Gasoline 2H18 LYNK&CO 3 Compact passenger car Gasoline Emgrand GS EV Compact SUV Emgrand HEV Compact passenger car Emgrand GS HEV Emgrand GL HEV Emgrand MPV HEV Emgrand PHEV Compact SUV Compact passenger car Compact MPV Compact passenger car Pure electric Hybrid power 3KM 4.9L 64KM/4.9L 4.9L End of 64KM Emgrand GS PHEV Compact SUV Great Wall Motor Chang an Automobile Chang an Ford Borui PHEV Passenger car Haval H4 Compact SUV Gasoline VV6 Compact SUV Gasoline Oushang X7A SUV Gasoline Eado Compact passenger car Facelift Gasoline 1H18 CS75 PHEV SUV 6KM Alsvin V7 Small passenger car Gasoline Oushang A6 Mondeo Energi Sources: Open sources, GF Securities Development & Research Center MPV Gasoline 1H18 Medium passenger car 35KM Note: Listed companies include SAIC (614 CH), FAW Car (8 CH), GAC Group (61238 CH, 2238 HK), Geely Auto (175 HK), Great Wall Motor (61633CH, 2333 HK) and Chang an Automobile (625 CH). 7

8 sector outlook Figure 9: Annual heavy duty truck sales volume (unit) and YoY growth 26-27: relatively strong market 29-21: explosive growth : decline after the boom Recovery since CAGR 33.2% CAGR 36.9%, boosted by the Rmb4trn stimulus package, reform of refined oil tax, Program for the Adjustment and Rejuvenation of the Auto Industry, etc. Sales volume peaked in 21, with above 1m units of HDT sold CAGR -11.5%, due to advance demand materialization during Rebound in sales due to truck overload regulations and recovery in pent-up demand Trough since 21, only 55k units of HDT sold Sales volume YoY (RHS) Sources: GF Securities Development & Research Center Figure 1: Heavy duty truck inventory level (1k units) 厂家 Manufacturers Distribution 渠道 channels Total 总库存 inventory Sources: Industry experts, GF Securities Development & Research Center 8

9 sector outlook Figure 11:Estimates of heavy duty truck purchases made in advance due to stimulus in Year Real GDP growth Expected HDT ownership YoY (GDP growth*.46) Expected ownership (1k units) Actual ownership (1k units) Purchase in advance (1k units) demand (1k units) % % % 4.8% % 4.2% % 3.6% % 3.6% % 3.4% % 3.2% % 3.1% E 6.6% 3.% E 6.5% 3.% E 6.5% 3.% E 6.5% 3.% Sources: NBS, GF Securities Development & Research Center Figure 12:Heavy duty truck replacement demand Replacement cycle/year Replacement demand/1k units Exports/1k units Annual sales/1k units Sources: NBS, GF Securities Development & Research Center 9

10 sector outlook Figure 13:Gross margin for auto sub-sectors Core components Non-core components 216Q3 216Q4 217Q1 217Q2 217Q3 215Q1-Q3 216Q1-Q3 217Q1-Q3 25.8% 26.% 23.4% 22.4% 27.2% 22.5% 22.9% 24.4% 19.8% 21.5% 2.2% 19.9% 19.9% 2.4% 2.% 2.% Auto sales 8.3% 8.6% 9.1% 9.6% 8.2% 8.2% 8.3% 8.9% Commercial coaches Commercial trucks Passenger vehicles 18.1% 19.% 17.% 19.% 23.5% 17.4% 17.6% 2.6% 18.3% 13.9% 14.7% 13.8% 14.% 15.2% 15.9% 14.1% 15.1% 15.7% 15.3% 14.1% 14.7% 13.4% 14.8% 14.7% Auto services 34.5% 31.4% 32.% 19.2% 26.4% 39.2% 33.8% 24.6% Component subtotal Auto making subtotal 2.3% 22.% 2.6% 2.2% 2.8% 2.6% 2.2% 2.5% 15.5% 15.7% 15.3% 14.3% 15.1% 13.8% 15.1% 14.9% Total 15.4% 15.9% 15.7% 14.9% 15.4% 14.2% 15.2% 15.3% Sources: Company data, Wind, GF Securities Development & Research Center Figure 14:Net margin for auto sub-sectors Core components Non-core components 216Q3 216Q4 217Q1 217Q2 217Q3 215Q1-Q3 216Q1-Q3 217Q1-Q3 19.9% 16.3% 14.2% 16.5% 16.5% 15.% 15.% 15.7% 7.7% 8.1% 7.9% 8.4% 7.6% 8.8% 8.2% 8.% Auto sales 1.4% 1.5% 2.2% 2.5% 1.7% 1.2% 1.6% 2.1% Commercial coaches Commercial trucks Passenger vehicles 3.5% 1.6% 7.5% 4.4% 8.5% 5.3% 5.% 6.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.4% 2.1%.7% 2.4% 1.8% 1.4% 6.6% 5.8% 6.9% 5.7% 5.2% 6.6% 6.8% 5.9% Auto services 23.% 25.2% 19.3% 8.8% 14.1% 18.6% 18.2% 13.% Component subtotal Auto making subtotal 8.7% 8.9% 8.7% 9.3% 8.8% 9.3% 8.7% 9.% 6.% 5.1% 6.4% 5.2% 5.% 6.2% 6.3% 5.5% Total 5.9% 5.3% 6.4% 5.8% 5.3% 6.% 6.2% 5.8% Sources: Company data, Wind, GF Securities Development & Research Center 1

11 sector outlook Figure 15: P/B ratio of auto making and auto component industries since 2 (based on previous year s earnings) SW SW汽车整车 automaking SW SW汽车零部件 auto components Ⅱ II Sources: Wind, GF Securities Development & Research Center Figure 16: P/E (TTM) trend of subsectors during SW乘用车 PVs SW SW商用载货车 CVs (freight) SW商用载客车 CVs SW汽车零部件 auto Ⅲ (passengers) components III Sources: Wind, GF Securities Development & Research Center 11

12 sector outlook Rating definitions Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time horizon: 12 months Company ratings Buy Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 15% Accumulate Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 5% but not more than 15% Hold Expected stock relative performance ranges between -5% and 5% Underperform Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 5% Sector ratings Positive Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 1% Neutral Expected sector relative performance ranges between -1% and 1% Cautious Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 1% Analyst Certification The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the company or relevant securities that the analyst(s) covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views on the company or relevant securities mentioned herein; and (2) no part of his or her remuneration was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, in connection with his or her specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. 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