Dim Sum Express. A-Share Market. Other Markets. Equity Research. Dec 11, 2014

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1 Equity Research Dim Sum Express Key index performance Chg (%) EPS (%) P/E Market 1D 1M YTD 14E 15E 14E 15E HSI HSCEI MXCN SHSZ SHCOMP SZCOMP INDU SPX CCMP UKX NKY Hong Kong ADRs HK Local Daily ADR Daily ticker Company (HK$) (%) (US$) (%) 857 PETROCHINA ICBC CHINA MOBILE CCB HSBC BANK OF CHINA TENCENT CHINA LIFE INS SINOPEC PING AN INS Econ data release China Data Date Period Prior Cons Ind Prod Cum YoY 12-Dec NOV Ind Prod Monthly YoY 12-Dec NOV FAI Cum YoY 12-Dec NOV Retail Sales Cum YoY 12-Dec NOV Retail Sales Mthly YoY 12-Dec NOV FDI Growth 14-Dec NOV HSBC China Mfg PMI 16-Dec DEC P US Data Date Period Prior Cons Initial Jobless Claims 11-Dec 6-Dec Cont Jobless Claims 11-Dec 29-Nov Markit US Mfg PMI 16-Dec DEC P US CPI Urban YoY 17-Dec NOV Source: Bloomberg A-Share Market Land Market: Residential land market recovering slightly; first-tier land sales surge MoM The residential land supply-to-transaction ratio declined in Nov for the first time following increases over the previous four months, pointing to a weak recovery in the residential land market. Nov residential land supply in first-tier cities was the second highest so far this year. Land sales value in the four cities surged 140% MoM in Nov with full-year sales likely to exceed the record set in Residential land supply in second-tier cities strengthened both MoM and YoY in Nov; transactions picked up MoM but remained weak YoY. Property: Transaction recovery to gather pace New launches rebounded last week as developers seek to meet annual sales targets. We are very likely to see the ongoing transaction recovery gather pace going forward with positive YoY transaction growth to continue in Dec. We believe home prices will continue to decline MoM (though at a decelerating pace) given significant inventory pressure, and expect prices to stabilize in 2Q15. Now is still an opportune time to accumulate property stocks as sector policy and fundamentals are set to remain positive in the foreseeable future. Home Appliances: Further valuation upside for market leaders Sector underperformance since the start of this year has left substantial room for re-ratings, particularly for market leaders. We remain positive on the sector and recommend white goods leaders. We also have a positive outlook on the high-end kitchen appliance subsector and believe relevant market leaders are yet to touch their growth ceilings. The impact of current property market volatility should be short-lived and insignificant, while the increasing use of higher-end products and entry barriers based on brand awareness should be long-term drivers. Other Markets China Merchants Property ( CH, NR): Key takeaways from conference call with management 11M14 presales came in at Rmb40bn, up 2% YoY. Management expects single-digit presales growth (YoY) in 2015, and a sell-through rate of 50%. 9M14 net profit dropped 38% YoY on an increase in low-margin project booking. However, management expects more projects to be booked in 4Q14, pushing its overall 2014 earnings growth into positive territory. In addition, management believes its subsidiary, CM Land, may see a return to earnings growth in The stock is trading at 7.0 x 2014E P/E, undemanding given it is a leading developer with a strong brand name and solid execution. GF events Date Event Location 11 Dec Yonyou Software co. visit - 11 Dec Central Emporium co. visit - Source: GF Securities Alex Fan, CFA, Head of Research, SFC CE No. ADJ672 alexfan@gfgroup.com.hk Gao Yedong, Editor, SFC CE No. BAI002 yedonggao@gfgroup.com.hk

2 Land Market: Residential land market recovering slightly; first-tier land sales surge MoM Weak recovery in residential land market Land parcels with planned GFA of 1.49bn sqm (-28% YoY) were sold in 300 cities during 11M14 for a total of Rmb1.96trn (-23% YoY); residential land parcels with planned GFA of 684m sqm (-32% YoY) were sold for Rmb1.35trn (-22% YoY). Residential land parcels offered to market in these cities during Nov had planned GFA of 87.52m sqm (+32% MoM), with those actually sold representing planned GFA of 48.88m sqm (+16% MoM) and a total value of Rmb152.0bn, translating into an ASP of Rmb3,110/sqm of planned GFA. The average premium of transaction prices over auction opening prices widened by 1pp from Oct to 12%. It is worth noting that the residential land supply-to-transaction ratio declined in Nov for the first time following increases over the previous four months, pointing to a weak recovery in the residential land market. First-tier: land sales value surges MoM Land parcels with planned GFA of 6.53m sqm (+11% MoM, -11% YoY) were offered to market in first-tier cities during Nov with 3.60m sqm (+30% MoM, -0.5% YoY) attributable to residential land, which was the second highest residential land supply figure so far this year. In particular, the planned GFA of residential land supply in Shanghai rose to a YTD high of 2.46m sqm. Land parcels actually sold in the four cities had planned GFA of 6.78m sqm (+96% MoM, -10% YoY) with that of residential land sold totaling 4.24m sqm (+193% MoM, - 5% YoY). Land sales value in the four cities surged 140% MoM to Rmb72.0bn in Nov; 11M14 land sales amounted to Rmb464.9bn with full-year sales likely to exceed the record of Rmb516.6bn set in Second-tier: residential land transactions rebound MoM The 35 second-tier cities tracked brought land parcels with planned GFA of 63.89m sqm (+67% MoM, -4% YoY) to market in Nov with 38.38m sqm (+17% MoM, -33% YoY) actually sold for Rmb70.8bn. Transaction prices were 10% higher than auction opening prices on average. Residential land supply in these cities strengthened both MoM and YoY in Nov; transactions picked up MoM but remained weak YoY. In addition, residential land transactions continued to vary significantly among different cities with Wuhan, Chongqing, Zhengzhou and Xi an selling residential land parcels with planned GFA of more than 16.00m sqm during 11M14 while Xiamen, Hohhot, Wenzhou and Haikou saw numbers of less than 2.00m sqm. Third/fourth-tier: residential land sales volume down with prices flat Land parcels with planned GFA of m sqm (+7% MoM, -47% YoY) were offered to market in 246 third/fourth-tier cities during Nov, with 58.61m sqm (+3% MoM, -58% YoY) actually sold. Residential land supply in these cities rebounded slightly MoM but was still lower YoY; transactions came off further both MoM and YoY as demand remained weak. Average land price per unit of GFA remained flat with Oct. Property: Transaction recovery to gather pace Transactions corrected WoW Primary area sold in first-tier cities dropped 15% WoW last week. Guangzhou recorded a WoW increase while Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen all suffered a decline with Bejing dropping the most by 28%. Property transactions in second-tier cities tracked slid 3% WoW with Shijiazhuang and Dongguan falling 41% and 32% while Kunming picked up 82%. Cities in the Bohai Rim region posted WoW transaction declines except for Tianjin and Jinan. YRD cities also weakened except for Nanjing, Hangzhou and Wuxi; in the PRD, Guangzhou saw an increase while Shenzhen and Dongguan dropped 22% and 32% WoW respectively. New launches strengthening on efforts to meet sales targets New project launches in the 12 large cities we track rebounded last week as developers seek to meet their annual sales targets. Our index tracking inventories in 15 large cities remained high with Shanghai and Beijing both edging up slightly. The overall sell-through rate eased slightly last week but remained relatively high compared with levels seen in 9M14. Transaction recovery has continued into Dec First-time home purchase and upgrade demand has strengthened as market sentiment is boosted by government and lending policy support, which has driven an overall transaction recovery. YoY transaction growth in the 67 cities tracked turned positive in Nov, rising slightly by 0.8% YoY, and this recovery has continued into Dec. We are very likely to see the ongoing transaction recovery gather pace going forward as the policy and lending environment remains favorable. Positive YoY transaction growth should continue in Dec. Page 2

3 Home prices to stabilize in 2Q15 Data from the China Index Academy indicates that the average home price in 100 large cities declined MoM in the seventh consecutive month in Nov, though the pace of the decline has continued to ease. In particular, the average home prices in ten major cities have rebounded slightly following MoM declines over the previous six months. We believe home prices will continue to decline MoM (though at a decelerating pace) given significant inventory pressure, and expect prices to stabilize in 2Q15. Now is still an opportune time to accumulate property stocks as sector policy and fundamentals are set to remain positive in the foreseeable future. Out top picks are China Merchants Property ( CH), Zhongnan Construction ( CH), Yango Group ( CH), Citychamp Dartong ( CH), Beijing Capital Development ( CH) and China Wuyi ( CH). Home Appliances: Further valuation upside for market leaders White goods leaders re-ratings have started The sector underperformed the SHCOMP by 3.04pp last week. Leading white goods names started to see valuation re-ratings, beating other subsectors with share price growth of 10.27%. Audio-visual and upstream players posted share price growth of 2.04% and 0.07%, followed by kitchen & toilet appliances (-0.44%) and small appliances (-2.11%). Sales remain weak despite promotions End demand remained weak during the week of Nov Offline AC sales dropped 18.25% YoY to 80,000 units retail sales have remained weak recently despite promotions offered by Gree Electric Appliances ( CH), Midea Group ( CH) and Qingdao Haier ( CH). The number of refrigerators sold through the offline channel fell 5.36% YoY to 100,000 units the YoY growth figure improved slightly but domestic demand remained sluggish. That said, Midea maintained stronger-than-peers performance with weekly refrigerator sales volume growth of 5.05% YoY. Offline washing machine sales dropped 20.57% YoY to 160,000 nints during the week. TV sales under pressure, ASP rising TV retail sales remained under pressure with offline LCD TV sales down 17.96% YoY to 220,000 sets during the week. TV retail ASP picked up across the board, strengthening 5.51% WoW, as the prices of TV panels continued to climb. Offline sales of extractor hoods fell 11.43% YoY to 35,000 units as changes in extractor hood sales lag property sales. Positive on white goods leaders, high-end kitchen appliances, panels The sector has been underperforming significantly since the start of this year, leaving substantial room for sector reratings, particularly for market leaders. We remain positive on the sector and recommend leading white goods players. In addition, we have a positive outlook on the high-end kitchen appliance subsector and believe relevant market leaders are yet to touch their growth ceilings. The impact of current property market volatility on this subsector should be short-lived and insignificant, while the increasing use of high-end home appliance products and entry barriers based on brand awareness should be long-term drivers. We recommend Robam Appliances ( CH). The prices of various panel sizes picked up further in early Dec, and we expect panel supply to remain tight until 1Q15. The panel industry is set to become less cyclical over the next few years with Chinese manufacturers to strengthen further. We like TCL Corporation ( CH) as subsidiary CSOT s earnings will remain better than industry average. China Merchants Property ( CH, NR): Key takeaways from conference call with management 11M14 presales up 2% YoY 11M14 presales came in at Rmb40bn, up 2% YoY; GFA sold amounted to 2.76m sqm, up 12% YoY; ASP was around Rmb14,000 per sqm. Presales in Shenzhen, Beijing, Nanjing, Suzhou and Xiamen were around Rmb10bn, Rmb5bn, Rmb4bn, Rmb4bn and Rmb3bn respectively. Projects available for sale in 2015 have a market value around Rmb150bn Management expects single-digit presales growth (YoY) in 2015, projecting sales value in Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Beijing and Shanghai of around Rmb20bn, Rmb7bn, Rmb5bn and Rmb4bn respectively during the year. It expects a sell-through rate of 50%. Company holds investment properties with GFA of around 1m sqm Most of its investment properties are located in Shenzhen. Management expects rental rates to rise in the near future. Page 3

4 Projects in the Shekou Sea World region have a GFA of around 1m sqm Of these, residential property GFA amounts to about 0.7m sqm, and investment property GFA totals around 0.3m sqm. Management hopes to achieve a net profit CAGR of 15% in According to its options scheme, if management achieves an earnings CAGR of 15% in , and an annual ROE higher than 13.5%, a portion of its share options will become exercisable in Positive earnings growth likely in M14 net profit dropped 38% YoY on an increase in lowmargin project booking. However, management expects more projects to be booked in 4Q14, pushing its overall 2014 earnings growth into positive territory. In addition, management believes its subsidiary, CM Land (978 HK, NR), may see a return to earnings growth in Future focus on industrial park development and elderly community residential property development The company has developed industrial parks with a substantial GFA of over 3.2m sqm, supported by its low-cost land bank, low-cost funding and strong parent group. Looking ahead, management expects to develop more industrial parks in China s tier-1/2 cities. However, it takes a minimum of 4-5 years to see profit from new industrial parks. This segment is thus not a short-term profit driver, in our view. Furthermore, management expects to set up project companies to explore new opportunities in elderly community property development. No details have yet been disclosed. Valuation undemanding The stock is trading at 7.0 x 2014E P/E, undemanding given it is a leading developer with a strong brand name and solid execution. (Dennis Yao, Research Analyst, SFC CE No. ALK994, dennisyao@gfgroup.com.hk ) Page 4

5 Rating Definitions Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time horizon: 12 months Company ratings Buy Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 15% Accumulate Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 5% but not more than 15% Hold Expected stock relative performance ranges between -5% and 5% Underperform Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 5% Sector ratings Positive Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10% Neutral Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10% Cautious Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10% Analyst Certification The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the company or relevant securities that the analyst(s) covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views on the company or relevant securities mentioned herein; and (2) no part of his or her remuneration was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, in connection with his or her specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. Disclosure of Interests (1) The proprietary trading division of GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited ( GF Securities (Hong Kong) ) and/or its affiliated or associated companies do not hold any shares of the securities mentioned in this research report. (2) GF Securities (Hong Kong) and/or its affiliated or associated companies did not have any investment banking relationships with the companies mentioned in this research report in the past 12 months. (3) All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the independent views of the analyst(s). Neither the analyst(s) preparing this report nor his/her associate(s) serves as an officer of the companies mentioned in this report, or has any financial interests in or holds any shares of the securities mentioned in this report. Disclaimer This report is prepared by GF Securities (Hong Kong). It is published solely for information purpose and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any securities or a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for investing in, any securities. This research report is intended solely for use by the clients of GF Securities (Hong Kong). The securities mentioned in this research report may not be allowed to be sold in certain jurisdictions. No action has been taken to permit the distribution of this research report to any persons in any jurisdictions that the circulation or distribution of such research report is unlawful. The information contained in this research report has been compiled or arrived at from publically available sources believed to be reliable in good faith, and no representation or warranty, either express or implied, is made by GF Securities (Hong Kong) as to their accuracy and completeness. GF Securities (Hong Kong) accepts no liability for any losses arising from the use of the materials presented in this research report, unless otherwise required by applicable laws or regulations. Please be aware of the fact that investments involve risks and that the prices of securities may fluctuate and therefore returns may vary. Past results do not guarantee future performance. Any recommendations contained in this research report do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any individuals. This report is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by the respective recipients of this report. Where necessary, the recipients should obtain professional advice before making investment decisions. GF Securities (Hong Kong) may have issued, and may in the future issue, other communications that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this research report. The points of view, opinions and analytical methods adopted in this research report are solely expressed by the analyst(s) but not GF Securities (Hong Kong) or its subsidiaries. The information, opinions and forecasts presented in this research report are the current opinions of the analyst(s) as of the date appearing on this material and are subject to changes at any time without notice. The salespersons, dealers or other professionals of GF Securities (Hong Kong) may deliver opposite points of view to their clients and the proprietary trading division with respect to market commentaries and dealing strategies either in writing or verbally. The proprietary trading division of GF Securities (Hong Kong) may have investment decisions which are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research report. GF Securities (Hong Kong) or its affiliates or respective directors, officers, analysts and employees may have rights and interests in the securities mentioned in this research report. The recipients should be aware of relevant disclosures of interests (if any) when reading this report. Copyright GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited. Without the prior written consent obtained from GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited, any part of the materials contained herein should not (i) in any forms be copied or reproduced or (ii) be re-disseminated. GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited. All rights reserved /F, Li Po Chun Chambers, 189 Des Voeux Road Central, Hong Kong Tel: Fax: Website: Page 5

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