Quarterly Commentary. Global Bond Fund DBLGX/DLGBX

Transcription

1 Quarterly Commentary Global Bond Fund DBLGX/DLGBX September 30, S. Grand Ave., 18th Floor Los Angeles, CA (213)

2 Quarterly Commentary Overview During the third quarter, investors paid close attention to changes in monetary policy at the world s largest central banks. Although the Federal Reserve (Fed) voted to keep the Fed Funds Rate unchanged, it was the Bank of Japan (BoJ) that brought into question the efficacy of additional monetary action. With the BoJ fast approaching the limits of quantitative easing (QE), Governor Kuroda announced a new twist to the current program after a combination of bond purchases to the sum of 80 trillion 1 per year and negative rates has failed to spur inflation and growth. Instead, the bank has decided to move forward with quantitative and qualitative easing with yield control in a last effort to steepen the yield curve and promote growth. The move is further confirmation that monetary policy has failed to produce the desired results and could be one step closer to unprecedented, helicopter money. While central bankers debated future policy action, U.S. Treasuries (UST) experienced a backup in yields as the 10-year ended the quarter at 1.60%, up nearly 30 basis points (bps) from its all-time lows. As Mr. Gundlach called for higher rates at the start of the third quarter, we believe the UST yields are still likely to move higher during the fourth quarter as the Fed risks losing all credibility if they are unable to implement a single rate hike this year. We place the odds of a 2016 rate hike at 50/50 acknowledging the possibility that the Fed could surprise the market participants in an effort to stick to their infamous Dot Plot Projection which has capitulated since the start of the year. In addition to Fed rhetoric, notable increases across multiple inflation measures, such as the PriceStats U.S. Aggregate Inflation Rate, Consumer Price Index (CPI), U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (FIG) and Average Hourly Earnings, have also begun to put upward pressure on future UST breakeven rates. As such, we ended the quarter with a more favorable outlook toward Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) relative to nominal, particularly if rates and inflation expectations continue to move higher. Finally, as we move into the fourth quarter, attention is likely to fall on the U.S. presidential election. With both candidates locked in a tight race, volatility is likely to increase as the market reacts to any undesired outcome that may be projected by the mainstream media. As we approach Election Day on November 8 th, we remain conservatively positioned in a market environment that is complacent and delicately balanced on the concept of low rates forever. International Sovereign Despite hawkish rhetoric from some FOMC members, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to leave the Fed Funds rate unchanged at the September meeting. The September dot plot indicated that the median FOMC member s forecast has moved lower to the market s expectation of one hike in 2016 and 2 hikes in Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, noted that the Fed Funds rate is only modestly accommodative, indicating and indicating perhaps a more gradual path of future rate hikes. The 10-year UST yield drifted a little higher over the third quarter after setting a low in July over 3Q. Despite expectations for additional easing measures from the BoJ and ECB in the September meetings, both central banks disappointed markets and did not take negative rates even more negative, though both maintained that they stand ready to act. The BoJ did announce a change in their policy, announcing quantitative and qualitative easing with yield curve control. The BoJ will begin targeting the nominal 10-year yield at 0%, perhaps in attempt to steepen the yield curve and improve bank and insurance profitability. Some market participants viewed the inaction of the ECB and BoJ as admission by the central banks that policy may be reaching the limits of effectiveness, further opening the discussion for the need for fiscal stimulus measures. 1. Approximately $782 billion U.S. Dollar as of September 30,

3 DoubleLine Global Bond Fund Ticker: DBLGX/DGBX As of September 30, 2016 Fund Performance Month-End Returns September 30, 2016 September Year-to-Date Since Inception ( to ) I-share 0.69% 7.87% 7.34% N-share 0.67% 7.70% 7.17% Benchmark % 11.07% 11.51% Quarter-End Returns Since Inception September 30, Q16 Year-to-Date ( to ) I-share 0.48% 7.87% 7.34% N-share 0.42% 7.70% 7.17% Benchmark % 11.07% 11.51% Expense Ratio Gross Net 2 I-share 0.93% 0.71% N-share 1.18% 0.96% Performance data quoted represents past performance; past performance does not guarantee future results. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor's shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than the original cost. Current performance of the fund may be lower or higher than the performance quoted. Short term performance, in particular, is not a good indication of the Fund's future performance, and an investment should not be made solely on returns. The performance information shown assumes the reinvestment of all dividends and distributions. 1. Benchmark: Citi World Government Bond Index (WGBI) - Measures the performance of fixed-rate, local currency, investment grade sovereign bonds. The WGBI is a widely used benchmark that currently comprises sovereign debt from over 20 countries, denominated in a variety of currencies, and has more than 25 years of history available. The WGBI provides a broad benchmark for the global sovereign fixed income market. Sub-indices are available in any combination of currency, maturity, or rating. It is not possible to invest in an index. 2. The Advisor has contractually agreed to waive fees and reimburse expenses through July 31, Performance Attribution In the third quarter of 2016, the DoubleLine Global Bond Fund saw positive performance and modestly outperformed its benchmark, the Citi World Government Bond Index (WGBI), which returned 0.30%. The positive return was driven primarily by foreign exchange (FX) appreciation versus the US dollar. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell from as of June month-end, to as of September month-end. The modest dollar weakness was in part driven by the FOMC s decision to leave the Fed Funds rate unchanged over the quarter, as well as the FOMC s dots forecasting a slower pace of hiking over 2016 and The Fund saw the strongest FX returns across the Hungarian Forint, the Polish Zloty, and the Romanian Leu. FX returns were also positive for the Japanese Yen and the Euro, which make up the largest FX positions within the fund. The change in government bond yields were mixed over the quarter. European government rates broadly rallied, albeit modestly, while U.S. and Japanese rates sold off. Despite expectations for additional easing measures from the BoJ, the central bank disappointed markets by not taking the negative depo rate into even more negative territory, through maintained that they stand ready to act. The biggest driver of higher long end JGB yields was the announcement of quantitative and qualitative easing with yield control, where the BoJ will target the nominal 10 year yield at 0%. The Japanese government bond (JGB) yield curve steepened in anticipation of this policy shift. 3

4 DoubleLine Global Bond Fund Ticker: DBLGX/DGBX As of September 30, 2016 Fund Statistics Portfolio Characteristics # of Issues 41 Ending Market Value $284,783,328 Market Price 1 $ Duration Weighted Avg Life Sector Breakdown Sovereign 94.89% Quasi-Sovereign 0.00% Corporate 0.00% Total % Duration Breakdown 2 Less than % 1 to 3 years 2.90% 3 to 5 years 26.56% 5 to 7 years 23.80% 7 to 10 years 34.82% 10+ years 6.81% Total: % Top 8 Currency Exposure US Dollar 25.03% Japanese Yen 17.32% Euro 14.85% British Pound 6.45% Australian Dollar 6.28% New Zealand Dollar 5.77% Hungarian Forint 4.83% Polish Zloty 4.74% Total: 90.38% Region Breakdown Asia 29.37% Americas 27.56% Developed Europe 21.29% CEEMEA 16.67% Total % Current Quality Credit Distribution 4 AAA 39.33% AA 8.32% A 29.06% BBB 16.29% BB 1.90% B and Below 0.00% Not Rated 0.00% Total: % SEC 30-Day Yield I-Share N-Share Gross 0.28% 0.03% Net 0.28% 0.03% Past performance does not guarantee future results. 1. Market Price = The weighted average of the prices of the Fund's portfolio holdings. While a component of the fund's Net Asset Value, it should not be confused with the Fund's NAV. 2. Duration = A commonly used measure of the potential volatility of the price of a debt securities, prior to maturity. Securities with a longer duration generally have more volatile prices than securities of comparable quality with a shorter duration. 3. Weighted Average Life (WAL) = The average number of years for which each dollar of unpaid principal on a loan or mortgage remains outstanding. 4. Credit distribution is determined from the highest available credit rating from any Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Agency ( NRSRO, generally S&P, Moody s and Fitch). DoubleLine chooses to display credit ratings using S&P s rating convention, although the rating itself might be sourced from another NRSRO. AAA to BBB - Bond rating firms, such as Standard & Poor s, identify AAA AA as having the highest credit quality. A to BBB as medium credit quality. These are considered Sector allocations are subject to change at any time and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Portfolio holdings generally are made available fifteen days after month-end by calling DLine11. The source for the information in this report is DoubleLine Capital, which maintains its data on a trade date basis. 4

5 Definitions & Disclosures Definitions Consumer Price Index (CPI) - A measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, fo od and medical care. The CPI is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined basket of goods and averaging them; the goods are weighted according to their importance. Changes in CPI are used to assess price changes associated with the cost of living. PriceStats U.S. Aggregate Inflation Rate - A daily measure of the inflation derived from prices posted to public websites by online retailers. U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (FIG) - A forward-looking measure of cyclical peaks and troughs in overall inflation. U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) - A weighted geometric mean of the United States dollar's value relative to a basket of 6 major foreign currencies, including t he Euro, Japanese yen, Pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc. Basis Point -A basis point (bps) equals to 0.01%. An investment cannot be made in an index. Disclaimers The fund s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. The statutory and summary prospectuses contain this and other important information about the investment company, and it may be obtained by calling 1 (877) / 1 (877) DLINE11, or visiting Read it carefully before investing. While the Fund is no-load, management fees and other expenses still apply. Please refer to the prospectus for further details. Mutual fund investing involves risk; Principal loss is possible. Investments in debt securities typically decrease when interest rates rise. This risk is usually greater for longer-term debt securities. Investments in lower-rated and non-rated securities present a greater risk of loss to principal and interest than higher rated securities. Investments in asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities include additional risks that investors should be aware of including credit risk, prepayment risk, possible liquidity and default as well as increased susceptibility to adverse economic developments. Investments in foreign securities, which involve political, economic, and currency risks, greater volatility, and differences in accounting methods. These risks are greater for investments in emerging markets. The Fund may use certain types of exchange traded funds or investment derivatives. Derivatives involve risks different from, and in certain cases, greater than the risks presented by more traditional investments. Derivatives may involve certain costs and risks such as liquidity, interest rate, market, credit, management and the risk that a position could not be closed when most advantageous. Investing in derivatives could lose more than the amount invested. ETF investments involve additional risks such as the market price trading at a discount to its net asset value, an active secondary trading market may not develop or be maintained, or trading may be halted by the exchange in which they trade, which may impact a fund's ability to sell its shares. The Fund may use leverage which may cause the effect of an increase or decrease in the value of the portfolio securities to be magnified and the fund to be more volatile than if leverage was not used. Fund portfolio characteristics and holdings are subject to change without notice. The Advisor may change its views and forecasts at anytime, without notice. Credit ratings from Moody s range from the highest rating of Aaa for bonds of the highest quality that offer the lowest degree of investment risk to the lowest rating of C for the lowest rated class of bonds. Credit ratings from Standard & Poor s (S&P) range from the highest rating of AAA for bonds of the highest quality that offer the lowest degree of investment risk to the lowest rating of D for bonds that are in default. Adverse economic conditions or changing circumstances, however, are more likely to lead to a weakened capacity of the obligor to meet its financial commitment on the obligation according to S&P s methodology. Sector allocations are subject to change at any time and should not be considered a recommendartion to buy or sell any security., Portfolio holdings generally are made available fifteen days after month-end by calling DLine11. The source for the information in this report is DoubleLine Capital, which maintains its data on a trade date basis. DoubleLine is a registered trademark of DoubleLine Capital LP. DoubleLine Funds are distributed by Quasar Distributors, LLC DoubleLine Funds. 5

6 Disclaimers Important Information Regarding This Report Issue selection processes and tools illustrated throughout this presentation are samples and may be modified periodically. Such charts are not the only tools used by the investment teams, are extremely sophisticated, may not always produce the intended results and are not intended for use by non-professionals. DoubleLine has no obligation to provide revised assessments in the event of changed circumstances. While we have gathered this information from sources believed to be reliable, DoubleLine cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided. Securities discussed are not recommendations and are presented as examples of issue selection or portfolio management processes. They have been picked for comparison or illustration purposes only. No security presented within is either offered for sale or purchase. DoubleLine reserves the right to change its investment perspective and outlook, as well as portfolio construction, without notice as market conditions dictate or as additional information becomes available. This material may include statements that constitute forward-looking statements under the U.S. securities laws. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, projections, estimates, and information about possible or future results related to a client s account, or market or regulatory developments. Ratings shown for various indices reflect the average for the indices. Such ratings and indices are created independently of DoubleLine and are subject to change without notice. Important Information Regarding Risk Factors Investment strategies may not achieve the desired results due to implementation lag, other timing factors, portfolio management decision-making, economic or market conditions or other unanticipated factors. The views and forecasts expressed in this material are as of the date indicated, are subject to change without notice, may not come to pass and do not represent a recommendation or offer of any particular security, strategy, or investment. Past performance (whether of DoubleLine or any index illustrated in this presentation) is no guarantee of future results. You cannot invest in an index. Important Information Regarding DoubleLine In preparing the client reports (and in managing the portfolios), DoubleLine and its vendors price separate account portfolio securities using various sources, including independent pricing services and fair value processes such as benchmarking. To receive a complimentary copy of DoubleLine s current Form ADV (which contains important additional disclosure information), a copy of the DoubleLine s proxy voting policies and procedures, or to obtain additional information on DoubleLine s proxy voting decisions, please contact DoubleLine s Client Services. Important Information Regarding DoubleLine s Investment Style DoubleLine seeks to maximize investment results consistent with our interpretation of client guidelines and investment mandate. While DoubleLine seeks to maximize returns for our clients consistent with guidelines, DoubleLine cannot guarantee that DoubleLine will outperform a client's specified benchmark. Additionally, the nature of portfolio diversification implies that certain holdings and sectors in a client's portfolio may be rising in price while others are falling; or, that some issues and sectors are outperforming while others are underperforming. Such out or underperformance can be the result of many factors, such as but not limited to duration/interest rate exposure, yield curve exposure, bond sector exposure, or news or rumors specific to a single name. DoubleLine is an active manager and will adjust the composition of client s portfolios consistent with our investment team s judgment concerning market conditions and any particular security. The construction of DoubleLine portfolios may differ substantially from the construction of any of a variety of bond market indices. As such, a DoubleLine portfolio has the potential to underperform or outperform a bond market index. Since markets can remain inefficiently priced for long periods, DoubleLine s performance is properly assessed over a full multi-year market cycle. Important Information Regarding Client Responsibilities Clients are requested to carefully review all portfolio holdings and strategies, including by comparing the custodial statement to any statements received from DoubleLine. Clients should promptly inform DoubleLine of any potential or perceived policy or guideline inconsistencies. In particular, DoubleLine understands that guideline enabling language is subject to interpretation and DoubleLine strongly encourages clients to express any contrasting interpretation as soon as practical. Clients are also requested to notify DoubleLine of any updates to Client s organization, such as (but not limited to) adding affiliates (including broker dealer affiliates), issuing additional securities, name changes, mergers or other alterations to Client s legal structure. DoubleLine is a registered trademark of DoubleLine Capital LP DoubleLine Capital LP 6