Global Liquidity What factors should you consider if you have excess cash in China?

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1 Global Liquidity What factors should you consider if you have excess cash in China? Jonathan Curry, Global CIO, Liquidity Presentation only intended for professional investors as defined by MIFID.. 1

2 MMFs in China: illustration of asset growth (AUM* in RMB bn) Period: Number of MMFs RMBbn Redemptions A share rally combined with poor fund management techniques for managing liquidity Growth period China's stocks fell with the CSI 300 Index dropping 28% from 2011 to end of June 2013; investors again moved toward money markets boosting assets to a high of RMB726bn at June Growth period Some giant dot.com companies such as Alibaba started to promote MMFs. The asset of Yu E Bao, a retail client based MMF, surged to 574 billion on June ,580bn Growth period Bearish equity market (A shares), regulatory support, and aggressive yield chasing st launch by Hua an Fund Management Growth period Global financial crisis and sharp decline in A shares Consolidation period Volatile interbank market and tight liquidity conditions** 194 funds AUM RMB1685bn (USD273bn) 1,685bn bn 250bn bn 30bn 294bn 361bn Volatility in MMF AUM s is significant and presents a key challenge for liquidity management however, Fitch expects the growing share of institutional investors to stabilise the asset base over the long term Fitch report 22/02/2012 Source: HSBC Global Asset Management. Data as at 31 Dec *AUM = Assets under Management. **The total assets of RMB MMFs shrank 40-50% in June to July 2013 as some investors shifted from MMFs into higher-yielding short-term instruments during the money squeeze in June Volatile interbank market conditions and tight liquidity have increased pressure on the net asset values of many Chinese MMFs, which are heavily exposed to the interbank markets and short-term bond markets. The overnight Shanghai interbank offered rate, an average of the rate at which large banks lend among themselves, rose to 5.5 percent on June 25 from 3 percent on May 20, down from a high of 13.4 percent on June 20. The assets under management of RMB MMFs stabilized after a sharp contraction in July.. For illustrative purposes only and does not constitute any investment recommendation. Any forecast, projection or target contained in this presentation is for information purpose only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecasts, projections or targets. 2

3 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 RMB (bn) Yu'E Bao Investment Fund Growth of AUM, 30 May 2013 to 31 December 2015 Yu'E Bao AUM(RMB bn) Yu'E Bao AUM(RMB bn) Source: China Haitong Securities, date range May 13 Dec 15. The Yu E Bao investment fund launched on 13 June For illustrative purposes only 3

4 MMFs in China: who uses them? MULTINATIONAL AND LOCAL CORPORATIONS INTERNATIONAL AND LOCAL FOUNDATIONS A D TYPICAL INVESTO R PUBLIC SECTOR NAMES C B QUALIFIED INSTITUTIONA L INVESTORS with cash outside of China (QFII /RQFII status & quota) Onshore MMFs are designed for companies with operations and cash surplus in mainland China the investing entity must have an onshore legal entity incorporated in China or an institutional investor with the relevant QFII/RQFII quota Source: HSBC Global Asset Management. For illustrative purposes only. 4

5 MMFs in China: What does the current-international investor base look like? An illustration of typical investor breakdown by geography Asia 8% DE 16% US 57% UK 9% Europe ex DE & UK 10% Source: HSBC Jintrust Fund Management Company as of 31 December For illustrative purposes only. 5

6 In China, a MMF is a viable investment option Offers diversification of counterparty risk, high liquidity and competitive yield Highlights Invests in a basket of short-term money market instruments Targets a liquid and low duration portfolio Some funds will invest in corporate paper/notes; others won t Certain MMFs are rated. Aim to maintain a triple A rating from at least one recognised rating agency, currently: CCXI Aaa (Moody s Chinese JV) Fitch AAAmmf(chn) Yield expectations Yields competitive with typical overnight or one week short-term interest rates (eg 7 day call deposit) Yields on bank deposits are regulated, at certain times fund yields may be higher than bank deposits Special notes Dividend income is free from corporate income tax in China¹ compared to other investments subject to 25% income tax Management fee (0.33%) + custodian fee (0.10%) + marketing fee (0.01%) = total fees Rebates are not permitted in China and fees are regulated for all money market providers Investing entity must have an onshore legal entity incorporated in China The value of capital is not guaranteed Liquidity Typical service standards T+1 settlement Daily access in accordance to the following cut off times RMB 3.00 pm (Beijing time) Dedicated relationship manager Global client service team e-trading available for online reporting/trading for some funds Source: HSBC Global Asset Management. Data is at 31 December The above statement is by way of a general guide to prospective investors and do not constitute tax advice. Prospective investors are therefore advised to consult their professional advisers concerning possible taxation or other consequences of purchasing, holding, selling or otherwise disposing of the investment under the laws of their country of incorporation, establishment, citizenship, residence or domicile. For more information, please refer to Notice of the Ministry of Finance and State Administration of Taxation on Several Preferential Policies in Respect of Corporate Income Tax. 6

7 MMFs in China Sample portfolio breakdown Asset type typical composition Cash 12% Time Deposit 14% Bonds 36% CD 2% Reverse Repo 36% Maturity breakdown example <30 days 80.00% 30 to 60 days 7.00% 60 to 90 days 1.00% 90 to 180 days 4.00% 180 to 397 days 8.00% Total % Source: HSBC Jintrust Fund Management Company. As of 31 December For illustrative purposes only. 7

8 Comparing rates: Chinese RMB MMF versus deposits over time Dividend income from MMFs is free from corporate income tax in China 1 This compares to a 25% income tax on bank deposits and other liquidity instruments The table compares investment returns between bank deposits and MMFs At the end of December 2015, the performance of a MMF was higher than the 1 year deposit rate For cash surpluses longer than 6 months, local treasuries also look at other bank products such as structured deposits, wealth management products or segregated account products Data as at end of December 2015 T+1 (next day) 1 week 1 month 3 month 6 month 9 month Bank deposit (PBOC guidelines) (gross returns; before taking the 25% income tax) 0.75 % 1.35 % n/a² 1.10 % 1.30 % n/a² 1.50 % 1 year Money Market Fund (average net returns of all Triple A rated RMB MMFs)³ 2.33 % Source: The People s Bank of China, WIND. Data as of 31 December The above information refers to past performance and should not be seen as an indication of future returns. 1The above statement is by way of a general guide to prospective investors and do not constitute tax advice. Prospective investors are therefore advised to consult their professional advisers concerning possible taxation or other consequences of purchasing, holding, selling or otherwise disposing of the investment under the laws of their country of incorporation, establishment, citizenship, residence or domicile. For more information, please refer to Notice of the Ministry of Finance and State Administration of Taxation on Several Preferential Policies in Respect of Corporate Income Tax. 2 Currently Banks in China are not allowed to offer 1 month deposits and 9 month deposits. 3 Three Triple A rated RMB MMFs are used to calculate the average net returns of RMB MMFs (HSBC Jintrust (HSBC), CIFM (JPMorgan), and Harvest (Deutsche)); the above performance is annualised and reflective of the period from 1 October 2015 to 31 December 2015 based on Class B units. Investments in emerging markets may exhibit a more volatile performance and may be affected by reduced liquidity which makes them risky. Investments in emerging markets may exhibit political, settlement, liquidity and custodian risks, as opposed to those in developed markets. 8

9 01/01/ /04/ /07/ /10/ /01/ /04/ /07/ /10/ /01/ /04/ /07/ /10/ /01/ /04/ /07/ /10/ /01/ /04/ /07/ /10/ /01/ /04/ /07/ /10/ /01/ /04/ /07/ /10/ /01/ /04/ /07/ /10/ /01/ /04/ /07/ /10/ /01/2016 Major macro trends Disinflationary pressure continues Spot oil prices have fallen over 70% since September 2014 A recent IMF simulation suggests that a 20% fall in the oil price will boost world GDP by about 0.5% Each USD10 fall in the oil price takes 0.4% of US CPI, 0.2% off Eurozone CPI and 0.1% off UK CPI 1000 Goldman Sachs Commodity Index Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs as of January 2016, Past performance is no reliable indicator for future performance. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Global Asset Management (France) accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. 9

10 01/02/ /07/ /12/ /05/ /10/ /03/ /08/ /01/ /06/ /11/ /04/ /09/ /02/ /07/ /12/ /05/ /10/ /03/ /08/ /01/ /06/ /11/ /02/ /04/ /06/ /08/ /10/ /12/ /02/ /04/ /06/ /08/ /10/ /12/ /02/ /04/ /06/ /08/ /10/ /12/2015 Major macro trends Disinflationary pressure continues 10 Consumer Price Index 52 Caixin China Manufacturing Survey Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Markit and Bloomberg. As of January

11 Major macro trends Property market cooling but not collapsing China Housing Sentiment Index Source: National Bureau of Statistics and Bloomberg. As of January

12 Major macro trends RMB slow and gradual appreciation CNY Weighted Index Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Source: Morgan Stanley and Bloomberg. As of January The above information refers to past performance and should not be seen as an indication of future ret 12

13 01/02/ /03/ /04/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /08/ /09/ /10/ /11/ /12/ /01/ /02/ /03/ /04/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /08/ /09/ /10/ /11/ /12/ /01/ /02/ /07/ /12/ /05/ /10/ /03/ /08/ /01/ /06/ /11/ /04/ /09/ /02/ /07/ /12/ /05/ /10/ /03/ /08/ /01/ /06/ /11/ /04/ /09/ /02/ /07/ /12/2015 Major macro trends Monetary policy easing 4 PBOC 3-month treasury bill 25 Deposit Reserve Ratio Source: Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) and Bloomberg. As of January

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