Junior Mining Review

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1 TriAngle G4S Junior Mining Review Canadian Equity Research 13 November 2015 J. Mazumdar, Canaccord Genuity Corp. (Canada) Lee Edwards, CFA, Canaccord Genuity Corp. (Canada) Gold demand and supply review for Q3/15 (WGC) Low gold price environment revives physical demand Higher probability (66%) of December rate hike In late October 2015, a combination of a rebound in U.S. home re-sales (+4.7% in September) and a 42-year low in the level of new applications for unemployment benefits (Source: Reuters article, October 22, 2015) suggested that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy were strong enough to absorb an increase in rates. The increasing expectation (66% vs. prev. 26% in mid-october) for an interest rate hike prior to the end of 2015 pushed the US dollar higher and had the opposite effect on the USD denominated gold price, Figures 1 and 2. More recently, potential for future monetary easing supports gold The release of the October 2015 FOMC minutes indicated that most members agreed on a shallow trajectory after the first rate rise and the need to consider providing additional monetary policy support if a recovery in the U.S. economy should falter. The latter provided some headwinds for the USD and tailwinds for the USD denominated gold price. Low gold price environment revives physical demand in Q3/15 The latest gold market trends published by the World Gold Council (WGC) suggested that consumers of physical gold took advantage of weak gold prices (down to US$1085/oz) during Q3/15. The Q3/15 surge in demand (1,121 t) sequentially (+24% q-o-q), seasonally (+8% y-o-y) and versus the trailing two-year average (+8%) is encouraging, Figure 3. The current down draft in the gold price (~US$1080/oz) may spur further physical demand in Q4/15. Principal demand components were up sequentially and seasonally The two principal components (jewellery and bar/coin investment) of gold demand account for over 80% of total demand and were both up sequentially in Q3/15 (23% for jewellery and 46% for bar/coin), Figure 3. The WGC notes that there is a risk that the strong surge in physical demand from China (bar/coins) and India (jewellery) during Q3/15 may be robbing normal demand patterns. Q3/15 coin demand was the second highest in WGC s 15-year data series The bar and coin sector (295.7 t, 25% of total demand) was the key source of growth in Q3/15. Specifically, coin demand as its quarterly level (76.1 t) represented the second highest quarterly total in the WGC s 15-year series of data. China and India represent over 35% of the total demand for bar/coin investments. China had the biggest lift (+70% y-o-y) due to low gold prices and favorable FX rates (yuan devaluation in August 2015). Canaccord Genuity is the global capital markets group of Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. (CF : TSX CF. : LSE) The recommendations and opinions expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst s personal, independent and objective views about any and all the companies and securities that are the subject of this report discussed herein. For important information, please see the Important Disclosures beginning on page 9 of this document.

2 India leads Q3/15 jewellery demand Jewellery demand represents 55-60% of total gold demand with China and India representing 60-65% of the global jewellery demand. Unlike bar/coin investment, India led the strong result as demand from the sub-continent was up 15% y-o-y (211.1 t) and represented ~33% of the total Q3/15 jewellery demand YTD ETF withdrawals were 30% lower than 2014 over the same period In 2015 year to date, a net withdrawal of 64.3 t from ETF related investments was driven by withdrawals in Q2 and Q3/15 (89.4 t) which offset Q1/15 inflows (25.1 t). The 2015 YTD withdrawals were lower 30% lower than the same period in 2014 (91.1 t). We continue to believe that ETF withdrawals have slowed from their 2013 pace, Figure consecutive quarters of positive central bank activity Central banks continue (19 straight quarters since Q4/10) to be net purchasers of gold, adding t in Q3/15, a level close to the recent peak (179.5 t, Q3/14, highest on record). The Q3/15 purchases by central banks were up 37% sequentially and 20% above the 2-year average. The motivation for the positive central bank activity includes a diversification of reserve assets among developed nations due to a volatile economic and geopolitical outlook. Led by Russia and China Russia led the central banks as they added 77.2 t (44% of total) of gold to their reserves in Q3/15 and have added 144 t in 2015 YTD. Another highlight from central bank activity includes China who reported an addition of 50.1 t (28-29% of total) the first reported change in their holdings in 6 years. China s gold reserves still stand at less than 2% of their reserve base. The WGC highlights that China adopted more stringent IMF standards on reporting official reserves that may increase data quality and transparency going forward. Flattening mine production profile Although mine production net of hedging was up sequentially (+7% q-o-q), seasonally (+3% y-o-y) and versus the 2-year quarterly average (+6%), the WGC notes that a flattening production profile has been more than offset by an increase in producer hedging. Hedging necessary for bank led debt facilities Hedging is not seen as a positive for most investors seeking leverage to the gold price but can be a consequence of negotiating a debt facility with a major bank by a noncash flowing gold development company which is the case for Roxgold Inc. (ROG : TSX- V Speculative Buy rated by J. Mazumdar) and Torex Gold (TXG : TSX Speculative Buy rated by J. Mazumdar). Future mine supply is at risk from cuts in exploration and development The drive by mining companies to reduce costs by cutting G&A, exploration and development has generated the intended effect on all in sustaining costs (AISC) which are down 19% to US$900/oz in Q2/15 versus Q1/13. But the cost savings may have stabilized with only exogenous impacts such as commodity inputs (oil) and labor costs providing sources of potential savings. We continue to believe that the cuts in exploration and development will constrain potential gold mine supply in the medium to long term. Scrap supply continues to be very price elastic Scrap supply, which accounts for ~25% of gold supply, is very price elastic and continues to be negatively impacted by low gold prices as holders had less incentive to part with their investment, Figure 8. The recent quarterly scrap supply is 30% off a Q1/14 peak (364.9 t), Figure November

3 Strong U.S. housing rebound and improving job market underpins support for an interest rate hike in December Higher expectations for Dec rate hike push USD up and USD gold price down Figure 1: 2015 year to date gold prices (USD/oz) versus the probability of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December 2015 Higher probability of December rate hike As recently as mid-october 2015, the markets closed higher as weak U.S. economic data including low inflation (CPI declined 0.2% in September 2015) appeared to support a delay in a rise in interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve, Figure 1. However, a week later in the same month, the combination of a rebound in U.S. home re-sales (+4.7% in September) and a 42-year low in the level of new applications for unemployment benefits (Source: Reuters article, October 22, 2015) suggested that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy were strong enough to absorb an increase in rates. This was reflected in the higher probability of an interest rate hike at the December meetings from a low of 26% in mid-october to its current level of 66%, Figure 1. The increasing expectation for an interest rate hike prior to the end of 2015 pushed the US dollar higher (+6% to 99.65) and had the opposite effect on the USD denominated gold price, Figure 2. Figure 2: 2015 year to date gold prices (USD/oz) versus USD trade weighted index (DXY) 80% 70% 60% Probability of Dec. Fed rate hike (LHS) Gold, US$/oz (RHS) $1,400 $1,300 $1,400 $1,300 Gold, US$/oz (LHS) US$ index (RHS) % $1,200 $1, % 90 30% 20% $1,100 $1, % $1,000 $1, Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Consideration to be given to a loose monetary policy if US recovery falters More recently the release of the October 2015 FOMC minutes indicated that most agreed on a shallow trajectory after the first rate rise and the need to consider providing additional monetary policy support if a recovery in the U.S. economy should falter. The latter provided some headwinds for the USD and tailwinds for the USD denominated gold price November

4 Low gold price environment revives physical demand Q3/15 surge in gold demand taking advantage of weak gold prices is encouraging for support Driven by two principal components (jewellery and bar/coin, >80%) The latest gold market trends published by the World Gold Council (WGC) suggested that consumers of physical gold took advantage of weak gold prices (down to US$1085/oz) during Q3/15. The Q3/15 surge in demand sequentially, seasonally and versus the longer-term benchmarks is encouraging. Total quarterly demand (1,121 t) was up 24% q-o-q and 8% y-o-y. Demand was also up (8%) versus the trailing two-year average, Figure 3. This current down draft in the gold price (<US$1070/oz) may spur further physical demand in Q4/15. The two principal components (jewellery and bar/coin investment) of gold demand account for over 80% of total demand and were both up sequentially in Q3/15 (23% for jewellery and 46% for bar/coin), Figure 3. Central banks continue to have a positive impact on the demand equation accounting for 14-15% of total demand. Year to date, there was a net withdrawal from ETFs predominantly driven by the Q3/15 draw (65.9 t) as the first two quarters offset each other. Scrap supply, which accounts for ~25% of gold supply, was flat sequentially (0% q-o-q) but down seasonally (6% y-o-y) due to weak gold price levels. Mine production net of hedging tends to be higher (+10%) in H2/15 versus H1/15. This was reflected in a higher sequential result in Q3/15 (+7% q-o-q) and a lower (+3% y-o-y) seasonal result. Figure 3: Quarterly global gold demand and supply (tonnes) over the past 10 quarters GOLD DEMAND tonnes Q2/13 Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Source: World Gold Council and Canaccord Genuity estimates Quarterly average (2 yr) vs qtr avg. q-o-q change y-o-y change Jewellery % 23% 6% Technology % 1% -4% Investment - Bar/coin % 46% 33% Investment - ETF (431.5) (118.7) (185.3) (11.6) (38.0) (41.5) (92.0) 25.1 (23.5) (65.9) (54.1) na 180% 59% Central Bank % 37% -3% Gold Demand 1, , , , , , , , , , % 24% 8% Gold price $ 1,415 $ 1,326 $ 1,276 $ 1,293 $ 1,288 $ 1,282 $ 1,201 $ 1,219 $ 1,192 $ 1,124 $ 1,235-9% -13% -15% GOLD SUPPLY tonnes Q2/13 Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Quarterly average (2 yr) vs qtr avg. q-o-q change y-o-y change Mine supply net hedging % 7% 3% Scrap gold % 0% -6% Gold Supply 1, , , , , , , , , , , % 5% 1% Bar/coin the key source of growth in Q3/15 Coming off a low in Q2/15 China (+90% y-o-y) due to low Au price and FX rates Bar/coin investment resurges off lows due to Chinese demand in Q3/15 As the WGC Q3/15 report highlighted, the bar and coin sector (295.7 t, Q3/15) was the key source of growth, Figure 1. Specifically, coin demand as its quarterly level (76.1 t) represented the second highest quarterly total in the WGC s 15 year series of data. Bar and coin investment represents about 25% of the total gold demand. Bar and coin investment registered a recent low (202.3 t) over the past 10 quarters in Q2/15 hence the significant sequential lift (+46%) in Q3/15 (295.7 t). The Q3/15 bar and coin investment was also up seasonally (+33% y-o-y) and versus (+13%) the trailing 2-year average. On a 2015 YTD basis, bar/coin investment was about flat (+1% y-o-y) for the first 3 quarters of China and India represent over 35% of the total demand for bar/coin investments. In Q3/15, China had the biggest lift (+70% y-o-y, 52.3 t or 17-18% of total demand, Q3/15) due to low gold prices and favorable FX rates (PBoC devalued the yuan in August 2015) November

5 India s increase (+6% y-o-y) was restrained by a stock market slump in Q3/15 Figure 4: Quarterly global gold demand over the past three years India showed a more modest increase (+6% y-o-y, 57.0 t or 19% of total demand) as a stock market slump forced some to reduce their holdings to offset losses on the market. US retail investment demand (32.7 t or 11% of total demand, Q3/15) was up 200% y-o-y, a level of interest according to the WGC not seen since the Global Financial Crisis. European demand for bar/coin investment (60.9 t or 20% of total demand, Q3/15) was the highest since Figure 5: Quarterly global gold demand components vs. 10 quarter peak/trough/average and q-o-q and y-o-y Gold demand (tonnes) 2,000 1,500 1, Central Bank Investment - Bar/coin Jewellery Investment - ETF Technology Gold price $2,000 $1,750 $1,500 $1,250 $1,000 Gold price (USD per ounce) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% -25% -50% -75% 2 yr peak 2 yr trough vs. 2 yr quarterly avg. qoq yoy Jewellery Technology Investment - Bar/coin Central Bank Gold Demand -500 Q2/13 Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 $ % Source: World Gold Council and Canaccord Genuity estimates Source: World Gold Council and Canaccord Genuity estimates Strongest Q3 results since 2008 Quarterly demand in India rivaled a Q3/08 peak Q4/15 jewellery demand expected to be more constrained Indian rural and semi-urban consumers revitalizes Q3/15 jewellery demand Jewellery demand represents 55-60% of total gold demand with China and India representing 60-65% of the global jewellery demand. On a 2015 YTD basis, jewellery demand was down 3% y-o-y for the first 3 quarters of The Q3/15 jewellery demand (621.9 t, Figure 1) was the strongest Q3/15 result since Unlike bar/coin investment, India led the strong result as demand from the sub-continent was up 15% y-o-y (211.1 t) and represented ~33% of the total Q3/15 jewellery demand. The quarterly demand from India rivaled a recent peak (213.0 t) in Q3/08, according to the WGC due to low prices in mid-july (Rs25,000/10g) to mid-august and was led by rural and semi-urban consumers despite a weak monsoon rainfall with below average rainfall. The WGC points out that the Q3/15 demand surge in India may be robbing normal demand patterns in the final quarter of the year as consumers took advantage of a low local gold price. Chinese demand in Q3/15 (187.6 t or 30% of total jewellery demand) showed a more modest increase (+4% y-o-y) due again to a low local price and in part to China s Valentine s Day (August 20). As is the case for India, Chinese demand is expected to be more constrained in Q4/15 due in part to tighter credit conditions November

6 ETF withdrawals have slowed from 2013 pace 2015 YTD ETF withdrawals were 30% lower than 2014 over the same period In 2015 year to date, a net withdrawal of 64.3 t from ETF related investments was driven by withdrawals in Q2 and Q3/15 (89.4 t) which offset Q1/15 inflows (25.1 t). The 2015 YTD withdrawals were lower 30% lower than the same period in 2014 (91.1 t). We continue to believe that ETF withdrawals have slowed from their 2013 pace, Figure 4. The top ETF holders (1,673 t, total from top 10) include SPDR Gold Shares (41% of total, USA), ishares Gold Trust (9-10%, USA), ZKB Gold ETF (8%, Switzerland) and ETFs Physical Gold (6%, UK). The largest year on year drops were with Gold Bullion Securities (UK based, down 16% y-o-y to 70.2 t) and Julius Baer Physical Gold Fund (Switzerland based, down 8% to 45.4 t). Figure 6: ETF Holdings (Moz) and gold price since October 2011 Figure 7: Top-40 reported gold holdings (as of September 2015) $2,000 ETF Gold Holdings Gold Price 90 10, % Gold Price (USD per ounce) $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1, Gold held, million ounces Gold holdings in tonnes 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 80% 60% 40% 20% Gold holdings as a % of total reserves $1,000 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct USA Germany IMF Italy France China Russia Switzerland Japan Netherlands India ECB Turkey Taiwan Portugal Venezuela Saudi Arabia UK Lebanon Spain Austria Belgium Kazakhstan Philippines Algeria Thailand Singapore Sweden South Africa Mexico Libya Greece BIS Korea Romania Poland Iraq Australia Kuwait Indonesia 0% Source: Bloomberg and Canaccord Genuity estimates Source: World Gold Council and IMF Russia continued to dominate purchases in Q3/15 Importantly, China reported their first addition to their holdings in 6 years 19 consecutive quarters of positive central bank activity Central banks continue (19 straight quarters since Q4/10) to be net purchases of gold adding t in Q3/15 a level close to the recent peak (179.5 t, Q3/14, highest on record). The Q3/15 purchases by central banks was up 37% sequentially and 20% above the 2-year average. The motivation for the positive central bank activity includes a diversification of reserve assets among developed nations due to a volatile economic and geopolitical outlook. Russia led the central banks as they added 77.2 t (44% of total) of gold to their reserves in Q3/15 and have added 144 t in 2015 YTD. Another highlight from central bank activity includes China who reported an addition of 50.1 t (28-29% of total) the first reported change in their holdings in 6 years. China s gold reserves still stand at less than 2% of their reserve base, Figure 7. The World Gold Council highlights that China adopted more stringent IMF standards on reporting official reserves that may increase data quality and transparency going forward. Other notable purchasers included Kazakhstan (+7.8 t, 4.4%), Jordan (+7.5 t, 4.3%) and the Ukraine (+3.1 t, 1.8%) with Colombia reducing their position by 6.9 t November

7 Tighter mine supply conditions to follow Flattening mine production offset by hedging Hedging can be a consequence of negotiating a debt facility with a bank (i.e. TXG and ROG) Although mine production net of hedging was up sequentially (+7% q-o-q), seasonally (+3% y-o-y) and versus the 2 year quarterly average (+6%), the WGC notes that a flattening production profile has been more than offset by an increase in producer hedging. Mine production net of hedging tends to be higher (+10%) in H2/15 versus H1/15. This was reflected in a higher sequential result in Q3/15 (+7% q-o-q). Australian companies dominate Q3/15 hedging volumes Evolution Mining (EVN : ASX Hold rated by Tim McCormack) and Metals X (MLX : ASX Buy rated by Tim McCormack) cumulatively sold 17 t or 85% (20 t) of the total of gold sold forward in Q3/15. Hedging is not seen as a positive for most investors seeking leverage to the gold price but can be a consequence of negotiating a debt facility with a major bank by a non-cash flowing gold development company which is the case for Roxgold Inc. (ROG : TSX-V Speculative Buy rated by J. Mazumdar) and Torex Gold (TXG : TSX Speculative Buy rated by J. Mazumdar). Figure 8: Quarterly global gold supply over the past 10 quarters Gold demand (tonnes) 2,000 1,500 1, Scrap gold Mine supply net hedging Gold price $2,000 $1,750 $1,500 $1,250 Gold price (USD per ounce) 0 $1,000 Source: World Gold Council and Canaccord Genuity estimates Mine output reaching steady state levels Gains by sequencing and new operations offset by declines in more mature mines Global mine production was down slightly (-1% y-o-y) in Q3/15, suggesting that output has reached steady state levels as gains by mine sequencing at Batu Hijau (Indonesia) operated by Newmont Mining (NEM :NYSE Not rated) and new mines, including Cerro Negro operated by Goldcorp (G :TSX Buy rated by Tony Lesiak) and Otjikoto operated by B2Gold (BTO :TSX Buy rated by Rahul Paul), were offset by lower production at long-term producers in the DRC (Kibali), Mongolia (Oyu Tolgoi), USA (Bingham Canyon), Ghana (Obuasi and Ahafo) and South Africa (Mponeng and South Deeps), according to the WGC November

8 Mine supply is at risk in the medium to long term due to cuts in exploration and development Scrap supply is 30% below a Q1/14 peak due to low gold prices AISC down 19% in Q2/15 versus Q1/13 The drive to reduce costs by cutting G&A, exploration and development has generated the intended effect on all in sustaining costs (AISC) which are down 19% to US$900/oz in Q2/15 versus Q1/13. But the cost savings may have stabilized with only exogenous impacts such as commodity inputs (oil can be 10% of onsite costs, WGC) and labor costs (30% of mine site costs, WGC) providing sources of potential savings. We continue to believe that the cuts in exploration and development will constrain potential gold mine supply in the medium to long term. Scrap supply continues to be very price elastic Scrap supply, which accounts for ~25% of gold supply, is very price elastic and continues to be negatively impacted by low gold prices as holders had less incentive to part with their investment, Figure 8. Q3/15 gold supply from re-fabrication of scrap gold (252.3 t) was flat sequentially (0% q-o-q) but down seasonally (6% y-o-y). The recent quarterly scrap supply is off (30%) a recent peak (364.9 t, Q1/14), Figure November

9 Appendix: Important Disclosures Analyst Certification Each authoring analyst of Canaccord Genuity whose name appears on the front page of this research hereby certifies that (i) the recommendations and opinions expressed in this research accurately reflect the authoring analyst s personal, independent and objective views about any and all of the designated investments or relevant issuers discussed herein that are within such authoring analyst s coverage universe and (ii) no part of the authoring analyst s compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the authoring analyst in the research. Analysts employed outside the US are not registered as research analysts with FINRA. These analysts may not be associated persons of Canaccord Genuity Inc. and therefore may not be subject to the NASD Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Compendium Report This report covers six or more subject companies and therefore is a compendium report and Canaccord Genuity and its affiliated companies hereby direct the reader to the specific disclosures related to the subject companies discussed in this report, which may be obtained at the following website (provided as a hyperlink if this report is being read electronically) disclosures.canaccordgenuity.com/en/pages/default.aspx; or by sending a request to Canaccord Genuity Corp. Research, Attn: Disclosures, P.O. Box Pacific Centre, Granville Street, Vancouver, BC, Canada V7Y 1H2; or by sending a request by to disclosures@canaccordgenuity.com. The reader may also obtain a copy of Canaccord Genuity s policies and procedures regarding the dissemination of research by following the steps outlined above. Distribution of Ratings: Global Stock Ratings (as of 11/19/15) Rating Coverage Universe IB Clients # % % Buy % 32.19% Hold % 12.81% Sell % 6.90% Speculative Buy % 59.32% 953* 100.0% *Total includes stocks that are Under Review Canaccord Genuity Ratings System BUY: The stock is expected to generate risk-adjusted returns of over 10% during the next 12 months. HOLD: The stock is expected to generate risk-adjusted returns of 0-10% during the next 12 months. SELL: The stock is expected to generate negative risk-adjusted returns during the next 12 months. NOT RATED: Canaccord Genuity does not provide research coverage of the relevant issuer. Risk-adjusted return refers to the expected return in relation to the amount of risk associated with the designated investment or the relevant issuer. Risk Qualifier SPECULATIVE: Stocks bear significantly higher risk that typically cannot be valued by normal fundamental criteria. Investments in the stock may result in material loss. General Disclosures Canaccord Genuity is the business name used by certain wholly owned subsidiaries of Canaccord Genuity Group Inc., including Canaccord Genuity Inc., Canaccord Genuity Limited, Canaccord Genuity Corp., and Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Limited, an affiliated company that is 50%-owned by Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. The authoring analysts who are responsible for the preparation of this research are employed by Canaccord Genuity Corp. a Canadian broker-dealer with principal offices located in Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, Montreal, or Canaccord Genuity Inc., a US broker-dealer with principal offices located in New York, Boston, San Francisco and Houston, or Canaccord Genuity Limited., a UK broker-dealer with principal offices located in London (UK) and Dublin (Ireland), or Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Limited, an Australian broker-dealer with principal offices located in Sydney and Melbourne. The authoring analysts who are responsible for the preparation of this research have received (or will receive) compensation based upon (among other factors) the Corporate Finance/Investment Banking revenues and general profits of Canaccord Genuity. However, such 19 November

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