WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND STAFF STUDIES FOR THE WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, SELECTED TOPICS,

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1 WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND STAFF STUDIES FOR THE WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, SELECTED TOPICS, I. Methodology Aggregation, Modeling, and Forecasting Revised Purchasing Power Parity Based Weights for the May 2000, Box A1 The Global Current Account Discrepancy October 2000, Chapter I, Appendix II How Well Do Forecasters Predict Turning Points? May 2001, Box 1.1 The Information Technology Revolution: Measurement Issues October 2001, Box 3.1 Measuring Capital Account Liberalization October 2001, Box 4.1 The Accuracy of Growth Forecasts: December 2001, Box 3.1 On the Accuracy of Forecasts of Recovery April 2002, Box 1.2 The Global Current Account Discrepancy and Other Statistical Problems September 2002, Box 2.1 The Global Economy Model April 2003, Box 4.3 How Should We Measure Global Growth? September 2003, Box 1.2 Measuring Foreign Reserves September 2003, Box 2.2 The Effects of Tax Cuts in a Global Fiscal Model April 2004, Box 2.2 How Accurate Are the Forecasts in the? April 2006, Box 1.3 Drawing the Line Between Personal and Corporate Savings April 2006, Box 4.1 Measuring Inequality: Conceptual, Methodological, and Measurement Issues October 2007, Box 4.1 New Business Cycle Indices for Latin America: A Historical Reconstruction October 2007, Box 5.3 II. Historical Surveys The World Economy in the Twentieth Century May 2000, Chapter V The Monetary System and Growth During the Commercial Revolution May 2000, Box 5.2 The Great Depression April 2002, Box 3.2 Historical Evidence on Financial Crises April 2002, Box 3.3 A Historical Perspective on Booms, Busts, and Recessions April 2003, Box 2.1 Institutional Development: The Influence of History and Geography April 2003, Box 3.1 External Imbalances Then and Now April 2005, Box 3.1 Long-Term Interest Rates from a Historical Perspective April 2006, Box 1.1 Recycling Petrodollars in the 1970s April 2006, Box 2.2 Staff Studies for the Globalization and Growth in the Twentieth Century Nicholas Crafts May 2000 The International Monetary System in the (Very) Long Run Barry Eichengreen and Nathan Sussman May

2 III. Economic Growth Sources and Patterns How Can the Poorest Countries Catch Up? May 2000, Chapter IV Trends in the Human Development Index May 2000, Box 5.1 Productivity Growth and IT in the Advanced Economies October 2000, Chapter II Transition: Experience and Policy Issues October 2000, Chapter III Business Linkages in Major Advanced Countries October 2001, Chapter II How Do Macroeconomic Fluctuations in the Advanced Countries Affect the Developing Countries? October 2001, Chapter II Confidence Spillovers October 2001, Box 2.1 Channels of Business Cycle Transmission to Developing Countries October 2001, Box 2.2 The Information Technology Revolution October 2001, Chapter III Has the IT Revolution Reduced Output Volatility? October 2001, Box 3.4 The Impact of Capital Account Liberalization on Economic Performance October 2001, Box 4.2 How Has September 11 Influenced the Global Economy? December 2001, Chapter II The Long-Term Impact of September 11 December 2001, Box 2.1 Is Wealth Increasingly Driving Consumption? April 2002, Chapter II Recessions and Recoveries April 2002, Chapter III Was It a Global Recession? April 2002, Box 1.1 How Important Is the Wealth Effect on Consumption? April 2002, Box 2.1 A Household Perspective on the Wealth Effect April 2002, Box 2.2 Measuring Business Cycles April 2002, Box 3.1 Economic Fluctuations in Developing Countries April 2002, Box 3.4 How Will Recent Falls in Equity Markets Affect Activity? September 2002, Box 1.1 Reversal of Fortune: Productivity Growth in Europe and the United States September 2002, Box 1.3 Growth and Institutions April 2003, Chapter III Is the New Economy Dead? April 2003, Box 1.2 Have External Anchors Accelerated Institutional Reform in Practice? April 2003, Box 3.2 Institutional Development: The Role of the IMF April 2003, Box 3.4 How Would War in Iraq Affect the Global Economy? April 2003, Appendix 1.2 How Can Economic Growth in the Middle East and North Africa Region Be Accelerated? September 2003, Chapter II Recent Changes in Monetary and Financial Conditions in the Major Currency Areas September 2003, Box 1.1 Accounting for Growth in the Middle East and North Africa September 2003, Box 2.1 Managing Increasing Aid Flows to Developing Countries September 2003, Box 1.3 Fostering Structural Reforms in Industrial Countries April 2004, Chapter III How Will Demographic Change Affect the Global Economy? September 2004, Chapter III HIV/AIDS: Demographic, Economic, and Fiscal Consequences September 2004, Box 3.3 Implications of Demographic Change for Health Care Systems September 2004, Box 3.4 Workers Remittances and Economic Development April 2005, Chapter II Output Volatility in Emerging Market and Developing Countries April 2005, Chapter II How Does Macroeconomic Instability Stifle Sub-Saharan African Growth? April 2005, Box 1.5 How Should Middle Eastern and Central Asian Oil Exporters Use Their Oil Revenues? April 2005, Box

3 Why Is Volatility Harmful? April 2005, Box 2.3 Building Institutions September 2005, Chapter III Return on Investment in Industrial and Developing Countries September 2005, Box 2.2 The Use of Specific Levers to Reduce Corruption September 2005, Box 3.2 Examining the Impact of Unrequited Transfers on Institutions September 2005, Box 3.3 The Impact of Recent Housing Market Adjustments in Industrial Countries April 2006, Box 1.2 Awash With Cash: Why Are Corporate Savings So High? April 2006, Chapter IV The Global Implications of an Avian Flu Pandemic April 2006, Appendix 1.2 Asia Rising: Patterns of Economic Development and Growth September 2006, Chapter III Japan s Potential Output and Productivity Growth September 2006, Box 3.1 The Evolution and Impact of Corporate Governance Quality in Asia September 2006, Box 3.2 Decoupling the Train? Spillovers and Cycles in the Global Economy April 2007, Chapter 4 Spillovers and International Business Cycle Synchronization: A Broader Perspective April 2007, Box 4.3 What Risks Do Housing Markets Pose for Global Growth? October 2007, Box 2.1 Climate Change: Economic Impact and Policy Responses October 2007, Appendix 1.2 The Discounting Debate October 2007, Box 1.7 Taxes Versus Quantities Under Uncertainty (Weitzman, 1974) October 2007, Box 1.8 Experience with Emissions Trading in the European Union October 2007, Box 1.9 The Changing Dynamics of the Global Business Cycle October 2007, Chapter 5 Major Economies and Fluctuations in Global Growth October 2007, Box 5.1 Improved Macroeconomic Performance Good Luck or Good Policies? October 2007, Box 5.2 IV. Infl ation and Defl ation; Commodity Markets Cycles in Nonfuel Commodity Prices May 2000, Box 2.2 Booms and Slumps in the World Oil Market May 2000, Box 2.3 Commodity Prices and Commodity Exporting Countries October 2000, Chapter II Developments in the Oil Markets October 2000, Box 2.2 The Decline of Inflation in Emerging Markets: Can It Be Maintained? May 2001, Chapter IV The Global Slowdown and Commodity Prices May 2001, Chapter I, Appendix 1 Why Emerging Market Countries Should Strive to Preserve Lower Inflation May 2001, Box 4.1 Is There a Relationship Between Fiscal Deficits and Inflation? May 2001, Box 4.2 How Much of a Concern Is Higher Headline Inflation? October 2001, Box 1.2 Primary Commodities and Semiconductor Markets October 2001, Chapter I, Appendix 1 Can Inflation Be Too Low? April 2002, Box 2.3 Could Deflation Become a Global Problem? April 2003, Box 1.1 Housing Markets in Industrial Countries April 2004, Box 1.2 Is Global Inflation Coming Back? September 2004, Box 1.1 What Explains the Recent Run-Up in House Prices? September 2004, Box 2.1 Will the Oil Market Continue to Be Tight? April 2005, Chapter IV Should Countries Worry About Oil Price Fluctuations? April 2005, Box

4 Data Quality in the Oil Market April 2005, Box 4.2 Long-Term Inflation Expectations and Credibility September 2005, Box 4.2 The Boom in Nonfuel Commodity Prices: Can It Last? September 2006, Chapter 5 Commodity Price Shocks, Growth, and Financing in Sub-Saharan Africa September 2006, Box 2.2 International Oil Companies and National Oil Companies in a Changing Oil Sector Environment September 2006, Box 1.4 Has Speculation Contributed to Higher Commodity Prices? September 2006, Box 5.1 Agricultural Trade Liberalization and Commodity Prices September 2006, Box 5.2 Recent Developments in Commodity Markets September 2006, Appendix 2.1 Who Is Harmed by the Surge in Food Prices? October 2007, Box 1.1 Refinery Bottlenecks October 2007, Box 1.5 Making the Most of Biofuels October 2007, Box 1.6 V. Fiscal Policy Social Spending, Poverty Reduction, and Debt Relief in Heavily Indebted Poor Countries May 2000, Box 4.3 Fiscal Improvement in Advanced Economies: How Long Will It Last? May 2001, Chapter III Impact of Fiscal Consolidation on Macroeconomic Performance May 2001, Box 3.3 Fiscal Frameworks in Advanced and Emerging Market Economies May 2001, Box 3.4 Data on Public Debt in Emerging Market Economies September 2003, Box 3.1 Fiscal Risk: Contingent Liabilities and Demographics September 2003, Box 3.2 Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertainty September 2003, Box 3.3 The Case for Growth-Indexed Bonds September 2003, Box 3.4 Public Debt in Emerging Markets: Is It Too High? September 2003, Chapter III Has Fiscal Behavior Changed Under the European Economic and Monetary Union? September 2004, Chapter II Bringing Small Entrepreneurs into the Formal Economy September 2004, Box 1.5 HIV/AIDS: Demographic, Economic, and Fiscal Consequences September 2004, Box 3.3 Implications of Demographic Change for Health Care Systems September 2004, Box 3.4 Impact of Aging on Public Pension Plans September 2004, Box 3.5 How Should Middle Eastern and Central Asian Oil Exporters Use April 2005, Box 1.6 Their Oil Revenues? Financial Globalization and the Conduct of Macroeconomic Policies April 2005, Box 3.3 Is Public Debt in Emerging Markets Still Too High? September 2005, Box 1.1 Improved Emerging Market Fiscal Performance: Cyclical or Structural? September 2006, Box 2.1 VI. Monetary Policy; Financial Markets; Flow of Funds Asset Prices and Business Cycle May 2000, Chapter III Global Liquidity and Asset Prices May 2000, Box 3.2 International Capital Flows to Emerging Markets October 2000, Chapter II Developments in Global Equity Markets October 2000, Chapter II 250

5 U.S. Monetary Policy and Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets October 2000, Box 2.1 Impact of the Global Technology Correction on the Real Economy May 2001, Chapter II Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies: Implementation and Challenges May 2001, Box 4.3 Financial Market Dislocations and Policy Responses After the September 11 Attacks December 2001, Box 2.2 Investor Risk Appetite December 2001, Box 2.3 Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Era April 2002, Chapter II The Introduction of Euro Notes and Coins April 2002, Box 1.3 Cross-Country Determinants of Capital Structure September 2002, Box 2.3 When Bubbles Burst April 2003, Chapter II How Do Balance Sheet Vulnerabilities Affect Investment? April 2003, Box 2.3 Identifying Asset Price Booms and Busts April 2003, Appendix 2.1 Are Foreign Exchange Reserves in Asia Too High? September 2003, Chapter II Reserves and Short-Term Debt September 2003, Box 2.3 Are Credit Booms in Emerging Markets a Concern? April 2004, Chapter IV How Do U.S. Interest and Exchange Rates Affect Emerging Markets Balance Sheets? April 2004, Box 2.1 Does Financial Sector Development Help Economic Growth and Welfare? April 2004, Box 4.1 Adjustable- or Fixed-Rate Mortgages: What Influences a Country s Choices? September 2004, Box 2.2 What Are the Risks from Low U.S. Long-Term Interest Rates? April 2005, Box 1.2 Regulating Remittances April 2005, Box 2.2 Financial Globalization and the Conduct of Macroeconomic Policies April 2005, Box 3.3 Monetary Policy in a Globalized World April 2005, Box 3.4 Does Inflation Targeting Work in Emerging Markets? September 2005, Chapter IV A Closer Look at Inflation Targeting Alternatives: Money and Exchange Rate Targets September 2005, Box 4.1 How Has Globalization Affected Inflation? April 2006, Chapter III The Impact of Petrodollars on U.S. and Emerging Market Bond Yields April 2006, Box 2.3 Globalization and Inflation in Emerging Markets April 2006, Box 3.1 Globalization and Low Inflation in a Historical Perspective April 2006, Box 3.2 Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices April 2006, Box 3.3 Trends in the Financial Sector s Profits and Savings April 2006, Box 4.2 How Do Financial Systems Affect Economic Cycles? September 2006, Chapter 4 Financial Leverage and Debt Deflation September 2006, Box 4.1 Financial Linkages and Spillovers April 2007, Box 4.1 Macroeconomic Conditions in Industrial Countries and Financial Flows to Emerging Markets April 2007, Box 4.2 What Is Global Liquidity? October 2007, Box 1.4 Macroeconomic Implications of Recent Market Turmoil: Patterns From Previous Episodes October 2007, Box 1.2 Capital Structure and Corporate Performance Across Emerging Markets Staff Studies for the September 2002, Chapter II 251

6 VII. Labor Markets, Poverty, and Inequality Unemployment and Labor Market Institutions: Why Reforms Pay Off April 2003, Chapter IV Regional Disparities in Unemployment April 2003, Box 4.1 Labor Market Reforms in the European Union April 2003, Box 4.2 The Globalization of Labor April 2007, Chapter 5 Emigration and Trade: How Do They Affect Developing Countries? April 2007, Box 5.1 Labor Market Reforms in the Euro Area and the Wage-Unemployment Tradeoff October 2007, Box 2.2 Globalization and Inequality October 2007, Chapter 4 Staff Studies for the EMU Challenges European Labor Markets Rüdiger Soltwedel, Dirk Dohse, and Christiane Krieger-Boden May 2000 VIII. Exchange Rate Issues The Pros and Cons of Dollarization May 2000, Box 1.4 Why Is the Euro So Undervalued? October 2000, Box 1.1 Convergence and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in the EU Accession Countries October 2000, Box 4.4 What Is Driving the Weakness of the Euro and the Strength of the Dollar? May 2001, Chapter II The Weakness of the Australian and New Zealand Currencies May 2001, Box 2.1 How Did the September 11 Attacks Affect Exchange Rate Expectations? December 2001, Box 2.4 Market Expectations of Exchange Rate Movements September 2002, Box 1.2 Are Foreign Exchange Reserves in Asia Too High? September 2003, Chapter II How Concerned Should Developing Countries Be About G-3 Exchange Rate Volatility? September 2003, Chapter II Reserves and Short-Term Debt September 2003, Box 2.3 The Effects of a Falling Dollar April 2004, Box 1.1 Learning to Float: The Experience of Emerging Market Countries Since the Early 1990s September 2004, Chapter II How Did Chile, India, and Brazil Learn to Float? September 2004, Box 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market Development and Intervention September 2004, Box 2.4 How Emerging Market Countries May Be Affected by External Shocks September 2006, Box 1.3 Exchange Rates and the Adjustment of External Imbalances April 2007, Chapter 3 Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Trade Prices and External Adjustment April 2007, Box 3.3 Staff Studies for the Currency Crises: In Search of Common Elements Jahangir Aziz, Francesco Caramazza, and Ranil Salgado May 2000 Business Cycle Influences on Exchange Rates: Survey and Evidence Ronald MacDonald and Phillip Suragel May

7 IX. External Payments, Trade, Capital Movements, and Foreign Debt The Global Current Account Discrepancy October 2000, Chapter I, Appendix II Trade Integration and Sub-Saharan Africa May 2001, Chapter II Sustainability of the U.S. External Current Account May 2001, Box 1.2 Reducing External Balances May 2001, Chapter I, Appendix 2 The World Trading System: From Seattle to Doha October 2001, Chapter II International Financial Integration and Economic Performance: Impact on Developing Countries October 2001, Chapter IV Potential Welfare Gains From a New Trade Round October 2001, Box 2.3 Critics of a New Trade Round October 2001, Box 2.4 Foreign Direct Investment and the Poorer Countries October 2001, Box 4.3 Country Experiences with Sequencing Capital Account Liberalization October 2001, Box 4.4 Contagion and Its Causes December 2001, Chapter I, Appendix Capital Account Crises in Emerging Market Countries April 2002, Box 3.5 How Have External Deficits Adjusted in the Past? September 2002, Box 2.2 Using Prices to Measure Goods Market Integration September 2002, Box 3.1 Transport Costs September 2002, Box 3.2 The Gravity Model of International Trade September 2002, Box 3.3 Vertical Specialization in the Global Economy September 2002, Box 3.4 Trade and Growth September 2002, Box 3.5 How Worrisome Are External Imbalances? September 2002, Chapter II How Do Industrial Country Agricultural Policies Affect Developing Countries? September 2002, Chapter II Trade and Financial Integration September 2002, Chapter III Risks to the Multilateral Trading System April 2004, Box 1.3 Is the Doha Round Back on Track? September 2004, Box 1.3 Regional Trade Agreements and Integration: The Experience with NAFTA September 2004, Box 1.4 Trade and Financial Integration in Europe: Five Years After the Euro s Introduction September 2004, Box 2.5 Globalization and External Imbalances April 2005, Chapter III The Ending of Global Textile Trade Quotas April 2005, Box 1.3 What Progress Has Been Made in Implementing Policies to Reduce Global Imbalances? April 2005, Box 1.4 Measuring a Country s Net External Position April 2005, Box 3.2 Global Imbalances: A Saving and Investment Perspective September 2005, Chapter II Impact of Demographic Change on Saving, Investment, and Current Account Balances September 2005, Box 2.3 How Will Global Imbalances Adjust? September 2005, Appendix 1.2 Oil Prices and Global Imbalances April 2006, Chapter II How Much Progress Has Been Made in Addressing Global Imbalances? April 2006, Box 1.4 The Doha Round After the Hong Kong SAR Meetings April 2006, Box 1.5 Capital Flows to Emerging Market Countries: A Long-Term Perspective September 2006, Box

8 How Will Global Imbalances Adjust? September 2006, Box 2.1 External Sustainability and Financial Integration April 2007, Box 3.1 Large and Persistent Current Account Imbalances April 2007, Box 3.2 Multilateral Consultation on Global Imbalances October 2007, Box 1.3 Managing the Macroeconomic Consequences of Large and Volatile Aid Flows October 2007, Box 2.3 Managing Large Capital Inflows October 2007, Chapter 3 Can Capital Controls Work? October 2007, Box 3.1 X. Regional Issues The Economic Impact of HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa October 2000, Box 1.4 Accession of Transition Economies to the European Union: Prospects and Pressures October 2000, Chapter IV The IMF and the Transition Economies October 2000, Box 3.1 Previous EU Enlargements October 2000, Box 4.2 The Enhanced HIPC Initiative in Africa May 2001, Box 1.4 Large Current Account Deficits in EU Accession Countries May 2001, Box 1.5 Africa s Trade and the Gravity Model May 2001, Box 2.2 The Implications of the Japanese Economic Slowdown for East Asia October 2001, Box 1.4 Relative Euro-Area Growth Performances: Why Are Germany and Italy Lagging Behind France? October 2001, Box 1.5 Economic Growth, Civil Conflict, and Poverty Reduction in Sub-Saharan Africa October 2001, Box 1.7 Information Technology and Growth in Emerging Asia October 2001, Box 3.3 The IT Slump and Short-Term Growth Prospects in East Asia October 2001, Box 3.5 The Effects of the September 11 Attacks on the Caribbean Region December 2001, Box 3.3 Debt Crises: What s Different About Latin America? April 2002, Chapter II Foreign Direct Investment in Africa September 2002, Box 1.6 Promoting Stronger Institutions and Growth: The New Partnership for Africa s Development April 2003, Box 3.3 How Can Economic Growth in the Middle East and North Africa Region Be Accelerated? September 2003, Chapter II Gulf Cooperation Council: Challenges on the Road to a Monetary Union September 2003, Box 1.5 Accounting for Growth in the Middle East and North Africa September 2003, Box 2.1 Is Emerging Asia Becoming an Engine of World Growth? April 2004, Box 1.4 What Works in Africa April 2004, Box 1.5 Economic Integration and Structural Reforms: The European Experience April 2004, Box 3.4 What Are the Risks of Slower Growth in China? September 2004, Box 1.2 Governance Challenges and Progress in Sub-Saharan Africa September 2004, Box 1.6 The Indian Ocean Tsunami: Impact on South Asian Economies April 2005, Box 1.1 Workers Remittances and Emigration in the Caribbean April 2005, Box 2.1 What Explains Divergent External Sector Performance in the Euro Area? September 2005, Box 1.3 Pressures Mount for African Cotton Producers September 2005, Box 1.5 Is Investment in Emerging Asia Too Low? September 2005, Box

9 Developing Institutions to Reflect Local Conditions: The Example of Ownership Transformation in China Versus Central and Eastern Europe September 2005, Box 3.1 How Rapidly Are Oil Exporters Spending Their Revenue Gains? April 2006, Box 2.1 Staff Studies for the The Great Contraction in Russia, the Baltics, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union: A View from the Supply Side Mark De Broeck and Vincent Koen May 2000 XI. Country-Specifi c Analyses Turkey s IMF-Supported Disinflation Program May 2000, Box 2.1 Productivity and Stock Prices in the United States May 2000, Box 3.1 India: Reinvigorating the Reform Process May 2000, Box 4.2 Risky Business: Output Volatility and the Perils of Forecasting in Japan October 2000, Box 1.2 China s Prospective WTO Accession October 2000, Box 1.3 Addressing Barter Trade and Arrears in Russia October 2000, Box 3.3 Fiscal Decentralization in Transition Economies: China and Russia October 2000, Box 3.5 Accession of Turkey to the European Union October 2000, Box 4.3 Japan s Recent Monetary and Structural Policy Initiatives May 2001, Box 1.3 Japan: A Fiscal Outlier? May 2001, Box 3.1 Financial Implications of the Shrinking Supply of U.S. Treasury Securities May 2001, Box 3.2 The Growth-Poverty Nexus in India October 2001, Box 1.6 Has U.S. TFP Growth Accelerated Outside of the IT Sector? October 2001, Box 3.2 Fiscal Stimulus and the Outlook for the United States December 2001, Box 3.2 Argentina: An Uphill Struggle to Regain Confidence December 2001, Box 3.4 China s Medium-Term Fiscal Challenges April 2002, Box 1.4 Rebuilding Afghanistan April 2002, Box 1.5 Russia s Rebounds April 2002, Box 1.6 Brazil: The Quest to Restore Market Confidence September 2002, Box 1.4 Where Is India in Terms of Trade Liberalization? September 2002, Box 1.5 How Important Are Banking Weaknesses in Explaining Germany s Stagnation? April 2003, Box 1.3 Are Corporate Financial Conditions Related to the Severity of Recessions in the United States? April 2003, Box 2.2 Rebuilding Post-Conflict Iraq September 2003, Box 1.4 How Will the U.S. Budget Deficit Affect the Rest of the World? April 2004, Chapter II China s Emergence and Its Impact on the Global Economy April 2004, Chapter II Can China Sustain Its Rapid Output Growth? April 2004, Box 2.3 Quantifying the International Impact of China s WTO Accession April 2004, Box 2.4 Structural Reforms and Economic Growth: New Zealand s Experience April 2004, Box 3.1 Structural Reforms in the United Kingdom During the 1980s April 2004, Box 3.2 The Netherlands: How the Interaction of Labor Market Reforms and Tax Cuts Led to Strong Employment Growth April 2004, Box 3.3 Why Is the U.S. International Income Account Still in the Black, and Will This Last? September, 2005, Box

10 Is India Becoming an Engine for Global Growth? September, 2005, Box 1.4 Saving and Investment in China September, 2005, Box 2.1 China s GDP Revision: What Does It Mean for China and the Global Economy? April 2006, Box 1.6 What Do Country Studies of the Impact of Globalization on Inequality Tell Us? Examples from Mexico, China, and India October 2007, Box

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