Contents. Index Views. SENSEX Index Movers. BSE 200 Index Movers. FII and MF Data. SENSEX Movement. Key Developments India
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2 Contents Index Views SENSEX Index Movers BSE 200 Index Movers FII and MF Data SENSEX Movement Key Developments India Key Developments International Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. 2
3 Index Views Last Closing % Change Over 1 week 1 month YTD 1 year NIFTY 9, SENSEX 29, NSE MIDCAP 18, NSE 500 8, NIFTY JUNIOR 26, BSE SMALLCAP 15, BSE 200 4, *DOW JONES 20, *NASDAQ 6, NIKKEI 19, (0.03) HANG SENG 24, SHANGHAI COMP 3,155 (0.58) (3.02) BSE OIL & GAS 14, BSE CAPITAL GOODS 17, BSE AUTO 22, BSE FMCG 9, BSE HEALTHCARE 15,019 (0.93) (2.04) 1.98 (2.88) BSE TECH 5,450 (0.32) (5.55) (0.88) (11.52) BSE IT 9,619 (0.64) (7.52) (5.47) (15.48) BSE BANK 25, BSE PSU 9, BSE REALTY 1, BSE METALS 11, (2.74) BSE CONSUMER DURABLES 15,475 (0.33) SOURCE : BLOOMBERG * DENOTES THURSDAY CLOSE 3
4 SENSEX Index Movers Last Price % Change Over 1 week 1 month YTD 1 year Hindalco Industries Ltd Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd 1, (0.66) Gail India Ltd Maruti Suzuki India Ltd 6, Axis Bank Ltd Tata Steel Ltd 449 (0.45) (6.47) Infosys Ltd 919 (0.47) (11.18) (9.03) (24.11) Cipla Ltd/India 557 (1.17) (6.25) (2.01) 5.64 NTPC Ltd 164 (1.59) (0.27) (0.18) Tata Consultancy Services Ltd 2,272 (1.69) (6.49) (3.80) (10.09) SOURCE : BLOOMBERG BSE 200 Index Movers Last Price % Change Over 1 week 1 month YTD 1 year Bank of India Federal Bank Ltd IDFC Bank Ltd Canara Bank Bayer CropScience Ltd/India 4, Lupin Ltd 1,338 (5.06) (8.15) (9.83) (15.18) Sanofi India Ltd 4,203 (5.14) (12.16) (2.18) (2.74) Great Eastern Shipping Co Ltd/The 440 (6.00) Gujarat State Petronet Ltd 181 (6.91) Adani Enterprises Ltd 109 (25.21) SOURCE : BLOOMBERG 4
5 SENSEX LEVEL April 24, 2017 to April 28, 2017 FII and MF Data (Week Ended ) Rs. Crores FII GROSS PUR 26, FII GROSS SELL 25, FII NET 1, FII MONTH T0 DATE NET 2, MF GROSS PUR 9, MF GROSS SELL 6, MF NET 3, MF MONTH T0 DATE NET 8, SOURCE: SEBI SENSEX WEEKLY 30, ,943 30, , , /24/2017 4/25/2017 4/26/2017 4/27/2017 4/28/2017 DATE Source: Bloomberg. 5
6 Key Developments India: India s largest bank is turning more cautious on its bond investments, surprised by the hawkish minutes of the Reserve Bank of India s latest policy meeting. I was neutral with a bullish bias earlier, now I am just neutral, C. Venkat Nageswar, Mumbai-based deputy managing director and treasury head at State Bank of India, said. The minutes were more hawkish than expected, with the stance taken by a couple of members being a surprise for us, he added. The yield on India s benchmark 10-year sovereign bonds jumped to 6.95 percent on Wednesday, its highest close since September. That s after minutes of the RBI s April 5-6 meeting released last week showed policy makers expressed concerns about inflationary pressures, with one of the six panel members even suggesting a pre-emptive increase in the key repurchase rate. Nageswar predicts the 10-year yield, which was at 6.94 percent in Mumbai Friday, to range between 6.80 percent and 7.10 percent till September. That compares with his band of 6.70 percent to 6.95 percent, with a bias toward 6.70 percent, before the release of the minutes. The yield will drop to 6.85 percent by September, according to the median estimate of economist surveyed by Bloomberg News between April 21 and April 26. There is reason for us to be more careful on yields, Nageswar said, adding that he is now a little less confident that the central bank won t increase rates by December. The strategy is premised on bond markets not giving easy profits from falling yields. We would still be looking at the shorter end, but now we would need to be more opportunistic in terms of timing the purchases. The RBI panel unexpectedly raised the reverse repurchase rate earlier this month while keeping the main repo rate unchanged, effectively tightening policy by making overnight borrowings expensive. That followed February s surprising change in the authority s stance from accommodative to neutral as it signaled an end to the easing cycle that began in early India s share market rally -- even more pronounced in smaller stocks -- is giving an index-beating money manager a pause. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Co. has stopped accepting new money for its Next Trillion Dollar Opportunity Strategy, which mostly invests in small and mid-cap stocks, because it says the rally has made valuations untenable. The 56-billion rupee ($875 million) fund for wealthy individuals has risen about 19 percent a year since it was started in December 2007, twice as much as its benchmark. It kind of became a problem of plenty for us, said Manish Sonthalia, chief investment officer at Motilal s wealth management unit, which has 103 billion rupees in assets. I will remain rational even if the market continues to be irrational. The fund is turning down new investors for the first time, he said. The S&P BSE Sensex has gained 13 percent this year, the most among the 10 biggest stock markets, as local investors throng to equities amid declining returns from the traditionally preferred assets of gold and real estate. It rose above the 30,000 mark for the first time on Wednesday. The S&P BSE MidCap Index is up 23 percent, rising every month this year -- the best start in a decade. When this sort of money comes, it tends to chase the mid- and small-cap stocks, said Sonthalia. Too much money is chasing too few stocks in India. The BSE mid-cap index has 85 members with a median market value of about 200 billion rupees, with as many as 78 percent of its constituents trading above the 200-day moving average, the highest proportion since October. India will overtake Germany in 2022 as the world's fourth-largest economy and push Britain out of the top five, based on analysis of growth projections by the International Monetary Fund. But the challenges the South Asian nation must surmount to get there are many. These include executing a wide-ranging overhaul of the tax system, sorting out the biggest pile of distressed assets among major economies, reviving lackluster productivity, substantially increasing employment opportunities, encouraging corporate investment and overcoming a significant infrastructure shortfall. India's economy is still recovering from a cash ban that sucked out 86 percent of currency in circulation near the end of last year. And then there s the likely near-term disruption from the implementation of a nationwide goods and sales tax; indeed the government has already missed an April deadline for putting the tax in place and is now working 6
7 against the clock to meet its new July 1 goal. While there is little doubt the GST will be beneficial in the long run, economists are concerned about India s banking system and the overall health of its public finances -- both seen as lightning rods for global credit agencies that already rate Indian debt just above "junk'' status. Bad loans, restructured debt and advances to companies that can't service their debt have risen to about 16.6 percent of total loans, government data show. That spike in bad loans has forced banks to focus on recovering bad debts. As a result, loan growth has fallen to near record lows, posing a challenge to Prime Minister Narendra Modi s government as it seeks to revive investment and boost employment. International: The U.K. economy posted its worst performance in a year as the huge services industry felt the impact of an intensifying Brexit-related squeeze on living standards. In addition to faster inflation, households are also now facing a period of uncertainty as Britain prepares for a general election and the start of two years of negotiations to leave the European Union. The slump in growth to 0.3 percent in the first quarter could be the start of a slower phase for the economy. The data comes six weeks before the June 8 general election called by Prime Minister Theresa May, who s hoping to capitalize on her commanding lead in polls to increase her Parliament majority and strengthen her hand in the coming Brexit talks. Growth since the referendum in June has largely outperformed expectations, until recently. The cracks in the U.K. economy are starting to show, said Scott Corfe, director of the Centre for Economics and Business Research. Theresa May has timed the election well from an economics perspective. There is a high chance of things getting worse from here. The first-quarter growth was less than half the pace recorded at the end of 2016, according to the Office for National Statistics data. Services, which account for more than three quarters of the economy, expanded the least in two years, with much of the weakness due to consumers putting on the brakes. Having made Britain the strongest-growing Group of Seven economy bar Germany last year, consumers are now cutting back in response to rising prices brought on in part by the depreciation of the pound since the Brexit vote. And the pressure is expected to intensify; inflation is pulling ahead of earnings and a record-low saving ratio means people have little room to maintain their spending by setting aside less. Bloomberg s monthly survey projects growth of 0.3 percent in the three months through June and 0.2 percent in the next two quarters. The question for Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and other opposition parties is whether they can take advantage of the signs of economic weakness to help them eat into May s poll lead before the election. China s largest banks benefited from an economic rebound in the first quarter, as loan margins stabilized from late last year and the bad-debt pressures that weighed on them for years continued to abate. Filings this week showed that Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and its major rivals eked out small gains in profit for the March quarter, as they mostly lowered their bad-loan ratios and steadied their net interest margins. The profit increase reported by ICBC, the world s largest lender by assets, was its biggest in two years. China s economic growth accelerated for two straight quarters, boosting the earnings prospects for the lenders, which have been struggling with rising defaults and narrower margins the past two years. The government has sought to curb financial leverage by clamping down on interbank funding and off-balance sheet credit, a campaign that has boosted big banks margins as borrowing costs between lenders soared. The profit outlook for the major Chinese banks is set to improve this year as the country s economic growth is looking better than before, said Richard Cao, a Shenzhen-based analyst at Guotai Junan Securities Co. Their net interest margins are not under that much pressure and asset quality has been improving. After a rally in the first half of April, oil is set to end the month back below $50 a barrel. Futures are down 2.4 percent this month in New York after slipping 6.3 percent in March. What s worrying investors is expanding U.S. crude production, which threatens to dilute the impact of OPEC-led supply cuts. While Russia says it has fully implemented its pledged 300,000 barrel-a-day output reduction, analysts are still debating whether the Kremlin would be willing to join OPEC in extending the agreement for another six months American production has expanded to the highest since August 2015 and Saudi Arabia s Energy 7
8 Minister Khalid Al-Falih has acknowledged that the first quarter of curbs failed to bring stockpiles below the five-year average. While the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies mull extending the deal past June, U.S. drillers targeting crude have added rigs, taking the count to a two-year high. It s been a troubled month for oil as the tug-of-war between OPEC s cutting efforts and rising U.S. production continues, said Ole Sloth Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S in Copenhagen. We maintain the view that the oil market remains range-bound for now. U.S. production growth slowing can push oil higher while the downside risk could be a slowdown in demand growth. West Texas Intermediate for June delivery rose as much as 1.4 percent on Friday from the lowest level in a month. It was up 39 cents at $49.36 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 11:48 a.m. in London. Total volume traded was about 4 percent above the 100-day average. Prices lost 1.3 percent to $48.97 on Thursday, snapping a two-day gain. NEWS SOURCE: BLOOMBERG CL04342 Risk Factor: Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. Disclaimer: The article (including market views expressed herein) is for general information only and does not have regard to specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this information. This material provides general information on financial planning and comparisons made are only for illustration purposes. The data/ information used/disclosed in this material is only for information purposes and not guaranteeing / indicating any returns. Investments in mutual funds and secondary markets inherently involve risks and recipient should consult their legal, tax and financial advisors before investing. Recipient of this article/ information should understand that statements made herein regarding future prospects may not be realized. He/ She should also understand that any reference to the securities/ sectors/ issuers etc., in the document is only for illustration purpose and are NOT stock recommendations from the author or L&T Investment Management Limited, the asset management company of L&T Mutual Fund or any of its associates. Any performance information shown refers to the past should not be seen as an indication of future returns. The value of investments and any income from them can go down as well as up. 8
CONTENTS. Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
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