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Steve Biggar, Canada Regional Manager, The Mosaic Company, - Graham Avenue, Winnipeg RC J The Mosaic Company Manitoba Agronomists Conference Winnipeg, Manitoba December th, Fertilizer Market Trends

The company is the world s nd largest crop nutrition company with employees in Canada and over employees worldwide. Annual sales are ~ Billion $US and are ~ million tons of combined products.

1 Steve Biggar, Canada Regional Manager, The Mosaic Company, - Graham Avenue, Winnipeg RC J The Mosaic Company Manitoba Agronomists Conference Winnipeg, Manitoba December th, Fertilizer Market Trends by Steve Biggar Canada Regional Manager The Mosaic Company The Mosaic Company was formed October, through the merger of IMC Global & Cargill Crop Nutrition. The company is the world s nd largest crop nutrition company with employees in Canada and over employees worldwide. Annual sales are ~ Billion $US and are ~ million tons of combined products. Fertilizer Market Trends Presentation Mosaic: The Global Leader in Nourishing Crops ) The Mosaic Company Who are we? ) Market Analysis ) Nitrogen S&D ) Phosphate S&D ) Potash S&D The Largest Phosphate Player Worldwide A Leading Potash Producer World scale and low cost U.S. mining and processing operations Second largest miner of phosphate rock with capacity of more than million tonnes at mines in central Florida (% of the world production) Largest phosphoric acid producer with capacity of. million tonnes P O at plants in Florida and Louisiana (% of the world total) Largest phosphate fertilizer producer with capacity of. million tonnes of product at plants in Florida and Louisiana (% of the world total) Second largest feed phosphate player with capacity of. million tonnes of product at plants in Florida Global focus with equity stakes in leading phosphate producers in Brazil and China and with downstream distribution channels in all major markets Second largest potash player with capacity of. million tonnes of product or. million tonnes of nutrient (K O) at mines in Saskatchewan, New Mexico and Michigan (% of the world total) Six mines in North America -- four world scale and low cost mines in Saskatchewan accounting for % of Mosaic s nutrient capacity and two smaller scale mines in the United States at Carlsbad, NM and Hersey, MI accounting for the remaining % of capacity Carlsbad operations produce mostly K-Mag, a branded specialty product Both shaft and solution mining operations The Belle Plaine, Saskatchewan operation is the largest potash solution mine in the world Mosaic: The Global Leader in Nourishing Crops Mosaic Market Coverage % equity stake in Saskferco Products, Inc., a world scale and energy efficient nitrogen facility across the road from the large potash solution mine at Belle Plaine, Saskatchewan Mosaic serves as the exclusive marketing agent for Saskferco Saskferco capacity totals. million tonnes of product with a sales mix of roughly, tonnes of granular urea,, tonnes of % UAN solution,, tonnes of MicroGran feed urea and, tonnes of ammonia Assets in key growth markets Strong North American Nitrogen Position Saskferco owns and operates a new, tonne warehouse at Carmen, MB that provides next-day delivery to customers in its core market Mosaic also manufactures ammonia at its Faustina, LA complex for use in the production of diammonium phosphate (DAP) and monoammonium phosphate (MAP). Capacity is, tonnes per year. North America Supply & Demand Info is collected from key markets in North/South America & Asia. Developing distribution businesses in France, Ukraine, Russia & Mexico also contribute data. South America Global Footprint in Attractive Markets Markets a complete line of fertilizer products and offers value added services in nearly all of the major nutrient markets around the globe Brick and mortar distribution assets including port terminals, bagging lines, warehouses and blending/npk plants in Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, India, Thailand, Ukraine and the United States Approximately. million tonnes of owned storage capacity at two dozen facilities worldwide SSP and feed phosphate production in Brazil and NPK compound production and bulk blending plants in China % equity stake in Fosfertil, the largest phosphate and nitrogen producer in Brazil, and a % equity stake in a, tonne DAP granulation plant in Haikou China Asia Warehouse Warehouse & Blender Warehouse & Blender Under Construction Production Warehouse Liquid Product Tank Ammonia Tank

Steve Biggar, Canada Regional Manager, The Mosaic Company, - Graham Avenue, Winnipeg RC J Mosaic Potash Production Locations S&D Analysis Colonsay Shaft Esterhazy K & K Shaft Belle Plaine Solution

Local pricing is a factor of local supply & demand factors that either lead or lag world fundamentals. Information is shared through Publication like the Market Mosaic and through our sales team.

2 Steve Biggar, Canada Regional Manager, The Mosaic Company, - Graham Avenue, Winnipeg RC J Mosaic Potash Production Locations S&D Analysis Colonsay Shaft Esterhazy K & K Shaft Belle Plaine Solution Hersey Solution Information from the geographies where we have a presence is collected on a monthly basis and analyzed by Mosaic s Market Analysis team in Plymouth MN. Local pricing is a factor of local supply & demand factors that either lead or lag world fundamentals. Information is shared through Publication like the Market Mosaic and through our sales team. Carlsbad Shaft Red Muriate of Potash White Muriate of Potash K-Mag Sul-Po-Mag Nitrogen: Headed for Phase II of the Transition Nitrogen production is energy intensive The Transition of the World Nitrogen Market OMIFO train I Sur, Oman Ammonia plants in W.Can will use between & MM Btu s of natural gas to produce a ton of ammonia A typical large scale ammonia plant will produce, tons per year requiring. BCF of gas per year. A typical Winnipeg home burns - MCF of gas per year. Gas used by a typical Winnipeg home (one year) would produce tons of ammonia or Gas used by a typical ammonia plant (one year) would heat, homes in Winnipeg for an entire year. Impact of natural gas on N production costs Phase I: The U.S. industry shrunk by one-third Gas Cost ($ MM Btu) $. $. $. Estimated Cost fob Plant ($ ST) $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. Anhydrous Ammonia Gas Cost $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Variable Cost $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Cash Operating Cost $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Gas Percent of Variable % % % % % % % % % % % Gas Percent of Cash Op. Cost % % % % % % % % % % % Solid Granular Urea Gas Cost $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Variable Cost $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Cash Operating Cost $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Gas Percent of Variable % % % % % % % % % % % Gas Percent of Cash Op. Cost % % % % % % % % % % % Nitrogen Solutions Gas Cost $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Variable Cost $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Cash Operating Cost $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Gas Percent of Variable % % % % % % % % % % % Gas Percent of Cash Op. Cost % % % % % % % % % % % Cash Operating Cost of US/MMBtu is $US or $Cdn FOB the plant site. Mil ST North American Ammonia Production F U.S. Canada Fertilizer Year Ending June Phase I High gas cost forced the closure of roughly onethird of the U.S. nitrogen industry. Gross ammonia production peaked at mst in the late s and dropped to just. mst in /. The U.S. industry, however, still was the fourth largest producer of nitrogen in the world during, according to statistics published by the International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA).

3 Steve Biggar, Canada Regional Manager, The Mosaic Company, - Graham Avenue, Winnipeg RC J Imports filled the gap Imports of all three major products increased Mil ST N U.S. Nitrogen Use Percent F Imports accounted for more % of U.S. total nitrogen use last year, up from %-% years ago. Imports will jump again this year and likely account for more than % of U.S. nitrogen use in / Mil ST US Ammonia Imports from Offshore Sources Source: USDC and Mosaic F Fertilizer Year Ending June Mil ST US UAN Imports from Offshore Sources. Source: USDC and Mosaic.... Mil ST US Urea Imports from Offshore Sources. Source: USDC and Mosaic F Fertilizer Year Ending June Despite concerns about logistical bottlenecks, imports of all three major nitrogen products increased to record levels during Phase I of the transition. Fertilizer Year Ending June Net Imports Total Use Imports as Percent of Use..... Imports are forecast to jump to record levels again this year due to the expected shut down of U.S. plants that have not forward priced natural gas at pre-katrina levels or less. F Fertilizer Year Ending June High U.S. gas prices will accelerate Phase II High U.S. gas prices have put a floor under urea prices Henry Hub Natural Gas Price $ MM Btu Monthly Average of Daily Cash Price Index Average Source: Enerdata.... The gas market fretted about storage builds that were less than a year ago due to stronger-thanexpected demand for summer cooling, supply disruptions caused by Hurricane Dennis in July and disappointing gas and LNG imports. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita ignited the gas market and sent prices to record levels during Q. Cold US weather caused gas prices to spike to over./mmbtu last week. Gas prices are expected to remain very volatile over until the worst of winter is over(fh March). $ ST NOLA Granular Urea Barge Prices Source: Green Markets The current forward curve sets a high floor price World Urea Export Supply $ MT World Ammonia Prices vs. U.S. Ammonia Cost of Production Source: Fertecon, Enerdata, Gas Daily The cost of U.S. natural gas will set a floor under world nitrogen values until enough low-cost capacity is built to displace the domestic industry or until U.S. producers switch to a lower cost feedstock such as imported LNG or domestic coal. World Urea Export Supply World urea export supply is projected to increase to. mmt in, up more than % or. mmt from. mmt in. Significant additional supply is projected to come from Middle East (e.g. Oman, Saudi Arabia, Iran, etc.) and Egypt.. U.S. Gulf plant cost Tampa C&F NH prices Middle East FSU Europe Asia Latin America Other

Steve Biggar, Canada Regional Manager, The Mosaic Company, - Graham Avenue, Winnipeg RC J Significant new capacity has launched Phase II World A growing Urea surplus Import is Demand destined for the

4 Steve Biggar, Canada Regional Manager, The Mosaic Company, - Graham Avenue, Winnipeg RC J Significant new capacity has launched Phase II World A growing Urea surplus Import is Demand destined for the N.American market World Scale Nitrogen Projects - Expected Ammonia Urea Net Start-up Capacity Capacity Ammonia Country Firm Facility Qatar Qafco Umm Said Jul-, (Qafco IV) Trinidad N- North Pt Lisas Sep- Vietnam Petrovietnam Phu My Sep- Total,, Oman OMIFCO Al Ghalila Apr-,, Indonesia PT Pupuk Kujang Cikampek Aug- Total,, Australia Burrup Fertilizers Burrup Peninsular Jan- Iran NPC - Pars I Bandar Assaluyeh Jan-, Iran NPC - Razi Bandar Khomeini Apr- Saudi Arabia SAFCO IV Al Jubail Jul-,, Iran KPIC Kermanshah Oct- Egypt EFC Ain Sukhna Oct- Egypt Alexandria Fertilizers Abu Qir Oct- Total,,, Iran NPC - Pars II Bandar Jan-, Assaluyeh Egypt Helwan Fertilizers Helwan Apr- Total World Urea Import Demand. Source: Fertecon and Mosaic North America Europe Asia Latin America Other Indian Import demand is projected to grow due to the development of JVs between domestic producers and distributors and efficient player in the Mideast and elsewhere. Some Asian countries such as Vietnam and Pakistan will continue to develop projects to supply their own domestic needs. Will the U.S. stop producing solid urea in Phase II? Phosphate: Adapting to Rapid Change North America Urea Import Demand The supply surplus, most likely destined for the U.S. market, is expected to increases more than. mmt in. F F USA Canada U.S. solid urea production for agricultural use is forecast to end during Phase II of the transition. Mil ST North America Solid Urea Production F F U.S. Canada Fertilizer Year Ending June Canadian producers have the advantage of lower gas prices and insulation from offshore sources, for now. Once the US industry is shuttered the less efficient Canadian plants will operate only seasonally. Phosphate: Adapting to Rapid Change DAP prices have climbed to record highs this year Surging raw materials costs Declining trade Growing demand seasonality and volatility Rising competition from government producers Increasing environmental and regulatory requirements DAP Prices $ ST fob Central Florida Source: Green Markets

5 Steve Biggar, Canada Regional Manager, The Mosaic Company, - Graham Avenue, Winnipeg RC J Cost-push pressure from ammonia Cost-push pressure also from escalating rock costs DAP and Ammonia Prices $ ST DAP Source: Green Markets and Fertecon $ MT NH $ ST U.S. Average Rock Cost and BPL Content Percent % Source: The Fertilizer Institute % % % % % % These trends no doubt continued in and. Mosaic published an average rock BPL content of.% in /. More tons of higher cost rock are required to produce a ton of DAP or MAP today than years ago. DAP Central Florida Ammonia Tampa Non Cash Cost Cash Cost BPL % World Processed Phosphate Import Demand China moves to phosphate self-sufficiency China Net Processed Phosphate Imports. Processed Phosphate Import Demand Source: Fertecon and Mosaic Processed phosphates include DAP, MAP and TSP.. China was a consistent net importer of more than five million tonnes of processed phosphate during the last half of the s. A rebound in Asian DAP imports will offset the drop in South American MAP imports this year. Import demand is projected to drop in as a result of further declines in China, a pull-back in India and only a modest recovery in Brazilian imports next year E F China DAP Imports. Since then, net imports have declined steadily as a result of the start-up of new domestic phosphate capacity. China is expected to transition from a small net importer to a small net exporter of processed phosphate in... Exporters are projected to ship. mmt of DAP to China in. E F Asia Europe L Amer Oceania Other.. Chinese DAP imports are forecast to drop another, mt to. mmt in due increases in domestic production... E F India and Pakistan imports will double in Brazil phosphate imports will drop % in India and Pakistan Processed Phosphate Imports Total processed phosphate imports by India and Pakistan are estimated to more than double to. million tonnes in. Indian DAP imports are forecast to increase to. mmt in due to: ) phosphate demand growth, ) minimal stocks to draw on this year and ) below-plan domestic fabrication Brazilian Processed Phosphate Imports Source: ANDA and Mosaic TSP DAP MAP Processed phosphate imports by Brazil are projected to plunge % or. million tonnes in due to the deep erosion of farm economics. Farm economics have eroded as a result of the strong appreciation of the real, lower soybean prices, higher fuel, pesticide and other input costs and the severe drought in the southern Brazil.... E F India Pakistan Imports are forecast to decline next year but still exceed levels of the previous five years. The decline is due to increases in domestic fabrication and likely stock building this year.... E F MAP imports are forecast to drop % or. million tonnes from the record level in. No recovery is expected in unless the real depreciates and/or soybean prices rebound to improve farm economics.

Steve Biggar, Canada Regional Manager, The Mosaic Company, - Graham Avenue, Winnipeg RC J The U.S. industry adjusts to demand changes World Processed Phosphate Export Supply The U.S. industry adjusts to change Processed Phosphate Export Supply Source: Fertecon and Mosaic E F USA Africa & Mideast FSU Other Processed phosphates include DAP, MAP and TSP The U.

6 Steve Biggar, Canada Regional Manager, The Mosaic Company, - Graham Avenue, Winnipeg RC J The U.S. industry adjusts to demand changes World Processed Phosphate Export Supply The U.S. industry adjusts to change Processed Phosphate Export Supply Source: Fertecon and Mosaic E F USA Africa & Mideast FSU Other Processed phosphates include DAP, MAP and TSP The U.S. phosphate industry exported mmt of processed phosphate per year during the last half of the s. Exports have dropped to the mmt range today. U.S. exports required to meet residual demand are forecast to drop further as new capacity in China, Morocco and Saudi Arabia outstrips growth in import demand. U.S. Phosphate Plant Closures Unit: MT Phosphoric Acid (P O ) Company Facility Year Capacity Mosaic (IMC) Nichols Mulberry Phosphates Piney Point Mulberry Mosaic (IMC) Faustina USAC Ft Meade Total, DAP Equivalent, Unplanned supply interruptions / Seasonal demand in the world market Changes in U.S. DAP/MAP Supply During / World Processed Phosphate Trade by Quarter Tonnes Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Total Inventory Loss from Hurricanes MissPhos - - Production Losses from Hurricanes MissPhos (Sep-Dec) Mosaic Agrifos - - Sulphur Related Production Losses Mosaic (Uncle Sam A-train failure) Mosaic (Florida sulphur shortages) - - Turnaround Changes CF (early turnaround) PCS (early turnaround) - - U.S. Agri-Chemicals Closure Mosaic Inventory Control A A A/F F The rise of India and Pakistan and the fall of China (in terms of their processed phosphate import demand) created significant seasonal swings in world trade in The trend is expected to continue in with heavy shipments mostly concentrated in Q and Q of the calendar year. Total Change from Normal Op. Rates Total Change from Last Year Q Q Q Q Agrium s Redwater MAP facility has also lost ~ of production during the summer/fall months. Increasing seasonality is an issue Potash: Supply plays catch-up with demand ST ST U.S. DAP and MAP Producer Total Stocks JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN MIN MAX Range (/-/) / Actual -Yr Avg U.S. DAP and MAP Producer Total Stocks JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MA APR MAY JUN MIN MAX Range (/-/) / Actual -Yr Avg U.S. DAP and MAP stocks swung from the low end of the -year range last fall to the high end of the range last winter. Losses from the Florida hurricanes coupled with a seasonal up-tick in both export and domestic shipments pulled down stocks to below the -year minimum during Q. Stocks climbed to the upper end of the -year range due to the slowdown in shipments to Brazil and China in Q of. Stocks are projected to fall to below the low end of the -year range this fall as a result of large shipments to India and Pakistan and significant production losses from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in Q of. However, significant reduction of U.S. domestic movements and low shipments to China are expected to push inventories back up to the high end of the range through Q of. On-going seasonality in the market challenges U.S. producers.

7 Steve Biggar, Canada Regional Manager, The Mosaic Company, - Graham Avenue, Winnipeg RC J Surging demand has pulled prices to record highs Domestic prices also have increased to record highs $ MT c&f Brazilian Port Granular MOP Prices Source: Decyfer fob Vancouver c&f Brazilian Port Surging demand has tightened the potash market and pulled international prices to record highs during the last two years. Global prices appear to have stabilized during the last six months due to a strong supply response and a drop in Brazilian import demand. Cornbelt-Saskatchewan Potash Prices US$ ST Granular Grade Source: Green Markets Cornbelt Saskatchewan Domestic prices also have increased to record highs during the last two years. Demand growth slows Increases in Asia offset declines elsewhere in FH K O World Potash Import Demand F F Asia US Latin America Europe Other World import demand surged % or. mmt K O from to due to rapid growth in both Asia and Latin America. That is the equivalent of. mmt of KCL. Demand growth is projected to slow in largely as a result of a significant decline in Brazilian imports. Shipments to China and India will set records again this year. Import demand is forecast to increase.% to. mmt K O in driven by further but more moderate growth in Asia and a modest recovery in Brazil. Potash Shipments by Region KO January - June Source: IFA Europe Latin America North America Asia Other India and China are leading the increase in Asia this year. Export shipments to India and China increased % and %, respectively, during the first half of. Export shipments to Brazil were off % during the first half of the year. Brazilian Real -ity Check Record Canadian exports required to meet demand KCL Source: ANDA and Mosaic Brazil Potash Imports After surging in and, Brazilian muriate of potash imports are projected to drop % or. mmt KCL from. mmt in to just. mmt in. The appreciation of the real, lower soybean prices, higher input costs and a severe drought in the southern part of the country have combined to shrink demand this year. K O World Potash Export Supply Exports from Canada to offshore destinations required to balance the world market are forecast to reach. K O in, up almost.% from. Canadian exports are forecast to increase.% to. mmt K O in. F Potash stocks increased sharply last year because record imports exceeded actual use. As a result, imports are projected to drop even more than the expected decline in use. F F Canada FSU Europe Mideast Other

Steve Biggar, Canada Regional Manager, The Mosaic Company, - Graham Avenue, Winnipeg RC J NA producers respond to strong demand Stocks increase from record lows MST K O North American Potash

8 Steve Biggar, Canada Regional Manager, The Mosaic Company, - Graham Avenue, Winnipeg RC J NA producers respond to strong demand Stocks increase from record lows MST K O North American Potash Production Source: PPI and Mosaic F Fertilizer Year Ending June Canada US North American potash producers, like their counterparts in Europe and Asia, have increased production in order to meet demand. Stocks Held by NA Producers at On- and Off-Site Stocks Held by NA Producers at On- and Off-Site Locations - / Actual Locations - / Actual NA Potash Stocks at Month End ST K O NA Potash Stocks at Month End ST K O Source: PPI and Mosaic Source: PPI and Mosaic JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MA APR MAY JUN MIN MAX Range (/-/) / Year Average MIN MAX Range (/-/) / Year Average North American potash inventories have increased from record low levels as a result of several factors including a jump in global production, a slowdown in demand growth (i.e. the Brazilian problem), ample pipeline stocks worldwide, a disappointing fall season in the United States and record U.S. imports from offshore suppliers (i.e. Uralkali ex Russia). Still North American stocks are projected to remain at the low end of the the -year range during the / fertilizer year (particularly compared to the -year range a year ago). The Market Mosaic Visit Thank You! Fertilizer Market Trends by Steve Biggar Canada Regional Manager The Mosaic Company Manitoba Agronomists Conference Winnipeg, Manitoba December th,

2016 Annual Integrated Report GRAPHS

2016 Annual Integrated Report GRAPHS Annual Integrated Report GRAPHS PotashCorp AIR Graphs Page WHY POTASHCORP? GLOBAL POPULATION (billions) FERTILIZER CONSUMPTION GROWTH RATE FORECAST (percentage annual long-term global growth rate) GLOBAL