Investor Presentation. January 2019

Transcription

1 Investor Presentation January 2019

2 Forward Looking Statements 2 Certain statements and other information included in this presentation constitute "forward-looking information" or "forward-looking statements" (collectively, "forward-looking statements") under applicable securities laws (such statements are often accompanied by words such as "anticipate", forecast, "expect", "believe", "may", "will", "should", "estimate", "intend" or other similar words). Certain statements in this presentation, other than those relating to historical information or current conditions, are forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to: Nutrien's 2019 annual guidance, including expectations regarding our EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA (both consolidated and by segment); expectations regarding dividends per share and other shareholder returns in 2019; capital spending expectations for 2019 and beyond; expectations regarding performance of our business segments in 2019; our market outlook for 2019, including potash, nitrogen and phosphate outlook and including anticipated supply and demand for our products and services, expected market and industry conditions with respect to crop nutrient application rates, planted acres, crop mix, prices and margin; expectations regarding completion of previously announced expansion projects (including timing and volumes of production associated therewith) and acquisitions and divestitures; and the expected synergies associated with the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp, including timing thereof. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control, which could cause actual results to differ materially from such forward-looking statements. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements. All of the forward-looking statements are qualified by the assumptions that are stated or inherent in such forward-looking statements, including the assumptions referred to below and elsewhere in this document. Although Nutrien believes that these assumptions are reasonable, this list is not exhaustive of the factors that may affect any of the forward-looking statements and the reader should not place an undue reliance on these assumptions and such forward-looking statements. The additional key assumptions that have been made include, among other things, assumptions with respect to Nutrien's ability to successfully integrate and realize the anticipated benefits of its already completed (including the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp) and future acquisitions, and that we will be able to implement our standards, controls, procedures and policies at any acquired businesses to realize the expected synergies; that future business, regulatory and industry conditions will be within the parameters expected by Nutrien, including with respect to prices, margins, demand, supply, product availability, supplier agreements, availability and cost of labor and interest, exchange and effective tax rates; the completion of our expansion projects on schedule, as planned and on budget; assumptions with respect to global economic conditions and the accuracy of our market outlook expectations for 2019 and in the future; the adequacy of our cash generated from operations and our ability to access our credit facilities or capital markets for additional sources of financing; our ability to identify suitable candidates for acquisitions and divestitures and negotiate acceptable terms; ability to maintain investment grade rating and achieve our performance targets; the receipt, on time, of all necessary permits, utilities and project approvals with respect to our expansion projects and that we will have the resources necessary to meet the projects approach. Events or circumstances that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: general global economic, market and business conditions; the failure to successfully integrate and realize the expected synergies associated with the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp, including within the expected timeframe; weather conditions, including impacts from regional flooding and/or drought conditions; crop planted acreage, yield and prices; the supply and demand and price levels for our products; governmental and regulatory requirements and actions by governmental authorities, including changes in government policy, government ownership requirements, changes in environmental, tax and other laws or regulations and the interpretation thereof; political risks, including civil unrest, actions by armed groups or conflict and malicious acts including terrorism; the occurrence of a major environmental or safety incident; innovation and security risks related to our systems; the inability to find suitable buyers for our equity positions and counterparty and transaction risk associated therewith; regional natural gas supply restrictions; counterparty and sovereign risk; delays in completion of turnarounds at our major facilities; gas supply interruptions at our Egyptian and Argentinian facilities; any significant impairment of the carrying value of certain assets; risks related to reputational loss; certain complications that may arise in our mining processes; the ability to attract, engage and retain skilled employees and strikes or other forms of work stoppages; and other risk factors detailed from time to time in Agrium, PotashCorp and Nutrien reports filed with the Canadian securities regulators and the Securities and Exchange Commission in the United States, including those disclosed in Nutrien s business acquisition report dated February 20, 2018, related to the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp. The purpose of our expected adjusted consolidated EBITDA and EBITDA by segment guidance range is to assist readers in understanding our expected and targeted financial results, and this information may not be appropriate for other purposes. Non-IFRS Financial Measures Advisory We consider net earnings from continuing operations before finance costs, income tax (recovery) expense and depreciation and amortization ("EBITDA"), adjusted net earnings per share, Nutrien combined 2017 historical information, adjusted EBITDA, potash adjusted EBITDA, cash cost of product manufactured and other measures deriving from such non-ifrs measures, all of which are non-ifrs financial measures, to provide useful information to both management and investors in measuring our financial performance and financial condition. Refer to the disclosure under the heading Selected Non-IFRS Financial Measures and Reconciliations and Supplemental Information included in our news release dated November 5, 2018 announcing our third quarter 2018 results, as filed on SEDAR at and EDGAR at under our corporate profile, for a reconciliation of these non-ifrs measures to the most directly comparable measures calculated in accordance with IFRS and for a further discussion of how these measures are calculated and their usefulness to users including management. Non-IFRS financial measures are not recognized measures under IFRS and our method of calculation may not be comparable to that of other companies. These non-ifrs financial measures should not be considered as a substitute for, or superior to, measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with IFRS. The purpose of our adjusted annual earnings per share and adjusted EBITDA guidance ranges is to assist readers in understanding our expected and targeted financial results, and this information may not be appropriate for other purposes. Nutrien disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements in this document as a result of new information or future events, except as may be required under applicable U.S. federal securities laws or applicable Canadian securities legislation. Note: All dollar amounts are stated in US dollars throughout the presentation unless otherwise noted.

3 Nutrien Has a Unique Global Footprint and Well Positioned Assets 3 North American Integrated Footprint South America Australia LEGEND: RETAIL POTASH NITROGEN PHOSPHATE ESN GRANULATION LOVELAND PRODUCTS AND AFFILIATED FACILITIES AGRICHEM INVESTMENTS AND JV S OFFICES >26Mmt Combined sales tonnes of potash, nitrogen, phosphate & sulfate 1 ~1,600 Retail locations in 7 countries $600M Expected annual synergies by end of 2019 NOTE: European distribution and our ownership stakes in Sinofert and the MOPCO nitrogen facility are not included on these maps sales volume excluding sales tonnes from Conda and North Bend. $1.72 Annual dividend per share 2 ~50M Number of shares that may be acquired under NCIB expiring on Feb 22/ Based on Nutrien quarterly dividend declared December 14, Future dividends subject to board discretion. Source: Nutrien

4 Nutrien 2018 Highlights 4 1) Higher earnings across all business units 2) Increased annual synergy target to $600 million (+20%) 3) Received $5.2 billion in net proceeds from equity divestitures 4) Returned ~$2.8 billion in cash to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks 5) Continued to grow Retail business and launched digital platform 6) Increased potash sales by ~1 million tonnes Strong performance on strategic and financial priorities in 2018

5 Diversified Portfolio Provides Stability and Multiple Avenues for Growth Adjusted Combined EBITDA Split F Adjusted EBITDA Growth US$ Billions 4.0 ~33-40% 3.5 Retail ~35% ~33% Potash ~7% ~25% Phosphate and Sulfate Nitrogen Retail Potash Nitrogen Phos & Other 2018F 2 Significant earnings growth expected across all business units in This is a Non-IFRS measure and/or the historical combined results of PotashCorp and Agrium. See the Forward Looking Statement and Select Non-IFRS Financial Measures and Reconciliations and Supplemental Information in Nutrien s Q news release. 2 Based on the mid-point of Nutrien s adjusted EBITDA guidance range as of November 5, Source: Nutrien

6 Significant Opportunity to Grow the Company and Return Cash to Shareholders 6 Merger Synergies $600 Million annual run-rate synergies expected to be achieved by end of 2019 Capital Priorities Invest in Growth (Focus on growing Retail, Protect opportunistic Wholesale Invest expansion) in Balance Sheet Growth Return Cash (Strong investment grade rating BBB/Baa2) to Shareholders expansion) (~$2.8B cash returned in 2018) 1 (Focus on growing Retail, opportunistic Wholesale Retail Stability $50-$140 Million expected Retail EBITDA growth per year Equity Proceeds $5.2 Billion net proceeds from divestitures received in 2018 Return Protect Cash to Shareholders Balance Sheet (Strong (~$2.6B expected investment grade cash rating returned BBB/Baa2) in 2018) Crop Nutrient Leverage ~$650 Million increase in EBITDA from a $25/mt improvement in prices Expect to have $6-8 billion in cash to redeploy over the next 3 years 1 Through NCIB and dividends. Source: Nutrien

7 Market Fundamentals and Performance INVESTOR PRESENTATION

8 Cash Grower Margins 8 Cash Grower Margins 1 Local Currency Margin/Acre 400 US Corn US Soybeans US Wheat US Cotton CAN Canola BRZ Soybeans 2, , , Crop margins are mixed but overall remain supportive of input demand margins are based on average realized cash crop prices and estimated average fertilizer costs; 2018F margins are based on new crop 2018 futures prices less estimated basis and estimated average retail fertilizer prices; 2019F margins are based on new crop 2019 futures prices less estimated bases and estimated spot retail fertilizer prices; Brazilian grower margins are based on IMEA cost of production and price estimates for Mato Grosso. Source: USDA, Green Markets, CME Group, IMEA, Nutrien

9 Source: Nutrien Retail: Long Term Growth of Margins and Earnings 9 Retail EBITDA Margin Percent Retail EBITDA Millions 11% EBITDA Retail EBITDA Margin $ B $1,400 10% $1,200 9% 8% 7% 7.5% $ % 8.3% $951 $ % $1, % $1, % 9.5% $1,091 $1,145 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 6% $200 5% F 1 $0 Consistent growth in EBITDA margins achieved through Operational Excellence initiatives including proprietary product growth and footprint optimization 1 Based on Nutrien s adjusted EBITDA guidance range as of November 5, 2018.

10 Retail: Multiple Avenues to Deliver Strong Earnings Growth 10 Grow TUCK-IN/ROLL UP Continue to acquire farm centers across North America and Australia Deliver Build Increase DIGITAL PLATFORM Deliver a world-class integrated platform that supports growers ease of business BRAZILIAN AG-RETAIL Build the retail business, leveraging our proven strengths and experience PROPRIETARY PRODUCT Increase our proprietary product offerings & sales Nutrien Ag Solutions Strategy Expand AG CREDIT FINANCE Expand the credit & finance business earnings, retain & attract new customers

11 Relatively Tight Potash Supply & Demand 11 Global Potash S&D Million Tonnes KCl Global Utilization Rate 1 Percent Demand* Operational Capability 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% Expect demand growth and capacity closures to offset capacity additions; operating rates expected to be at or above historical average 1 Based on estimated operational capability. Forecast utilization rate range based on high and low demand forecast. * Demand growth range based on 20 year CAGR (2002 to 2022) of 2.8 to 3.0 percent. 5-year forecast range of 2.3 to 3.3 percent. Source: CRU, Fertecon, IFA, Nutrien

12 Potash: World s Largest Producer; Lower-Cost Operations 12 Potash Production 1 Million Tonnes KCl Combined 1 Cash-related Cost of Goods Sold 2 US$/Tonne ~5Mmt $ Mmt 12.2Mmt Mmt $80 $60 $40 $ F Production Capability 3 $ F ~5 Mmt of incremental production capability in Saskatchewan that we can bring on with limited capital as global demand grows 1 This is a Non-IFRS measure and/or the historical combined results of PotashCorp and Agrium. See the Forward Looking Statement and Select Non-IFRS Financial Measures and Reconciliations and Supplemental Information in Nutrien s Q news release. 2 Refers to total cost of goods sold less depreciation and amortization. 3 Assuming full ramp up of Saskatchewan mines. Source: Nutrien

13 Potash: Significant Leverage to Improving Prices, Higher Volumes and Lower Costs 13 Potash Adjusted EBITDA (Full Year) US$ Millions +43% $1,550 Sales Volumes Million Tonnes +1.0 Mmt Q YTD Q YTD $1,083 Net Selling Price US$/MT +16% $173 $200 Q YTD Q YTD F 1 Cash Cost of Product Manufactured US$/MT 2 $64 Q YTD -9% $58 Q YTD 1 Based on the mid-point of Nutrien s adjusted potash EBITDA guidance range as of November 5, Cost of product manufactured is a non-ifrs measure. Refer to Selected Non-IFRS Financial Measures and Reconciliations and Supplemental Information in Nutrien s Q news release. Source: Nutrien

14 Tightening Global Nitrogen Supply & Demand 14 Global Nitrogen S&D Million Tonnes Nitrogen 180 Demand* Operational Capability Global Utilization Rate 1 Percent 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% Relatively stable capacity utilization in 2019 followed by rapid tightening 1 Based on estimated operational capability. * Demand growth based on 20 year CAGR (2002 to 2022) of 2 percent. Source: CRU, Nutrien

15 Nitrogen: Significant Leverage to Higher Prices, Low Cost Gas and Operational Efficiencies % Nitrogen EBITDA (Full Year) US$ Millions +48% $1,200 NH 3 Operating Rate 3 Percent 86% 93% Q YTD Q YTD +5% $812 Net Selling Price US$/MT $222 $232 Q YTD Q YTD F 1 Urea Cash Cost of Product Manufactured US$/MT 2 $78 Q YTD -6% $73 Q YTD 1 Based on the mid-point of Nutrien s nitrogen EBITDA guidance range as of November 5, Cost of product manufactured is a non-ifrs measure. Refer to Selected Non-IFRS Financial Measures and Reconciliations and Supplemental Information in Nutrien s Q news release. Excludes cost of natural gas and steam. 3 Excludes Joffre and Trinidad. Source: Nutrien

16 Strategy and Opportunities INVESTOR PRESENTATION

17 Executing on Our Strategic Priorities Achievements Integration & Synergies Achieved $401M of run-rate synergies as at September 30, 2018, expect $500M by end of 2018 and $600M by the end of 2019 Completed regulatory required divestment of ICL, SQM and APC for $5.2 Billion Growth Initiatives Strong Retail proprietary products performance and acquisition execution Launched integrated digital platform for growers Acquired >50 locations with >$30M of EBITDA (Q3 YTD) Increased quarterly dividend 7.5% to $0.43/share 1 Shareholder Returns Completed $1.7B 5% NCIB: Avg cost per share of $51.62 Extended the program for additional 3% in December 1 Based on Nutrien s quarterly dividend declared on November 5, Source: Nutrien

18 Significant Value Creation from Merger Synergies 18 Annual Run-Rate Synergies US$ Millions Achieved annual run-rate synergy as at September 30, 2018 Balance of annual run-rate synergy target $150 $600 $8 +20% $100 $142 $199 $200 $41 $59 $81 $500 $150 $119 $401 $69 $81 ++ Distribution/ Optimization Production Optimization Procurement SG&A and Other Target EOY (Revised) 2019 Total Target EOY (Original) Accelerated capture of merger synergies and increased target 1 Other includes synergies related to administrative functions which may not appear in Selling, General & Admin (SG&A) in the financial statements.. Source: Nutrien

19 Significant Upside Potential for Free Cash Flow per Share 19 Nutrien EBITDA & FCF Sensitivity to Nutrient Price Increases US$ Billions Incremental EBITDA 2018E Sustaining Capex $10 $11B EBITDA 8 $6.5 $7.0B EBITDA Proceeds of ~5.0B expected from equity stake sales $4.0 $4.2B EBITDA ~$3 FCF/sh 4 ~$8.00 FCF/sh 4 ~$13.00 FCF/sh E 2018E + Full 8 yr Avg. Nutrient Replacement Cost Nutrient Prices Potential mid-cycle free cash flow per share provides tremendous near & longterm opportunity for shareholders 1 Assumes synergies of $600MM per year by end of Assumes 2018 sales volumes at Average of 7-Year ( ) prices for: US Cornbelt MOP ($437/mt), Tampa DAP ($482/mt.) and NOLA urea ($361/mt). 3 Replacement cost nutrient prices assumed are: US Cornbelt MOP ($600/mt), Tampa DAP ($540/mt) and NOLA Urea ($480/mt). 4 Free Cash Flow defined as: Cash flow from continuing operations before net changes in non-cash working capital less sustaining capital. Assumes 612M shares issued and outstanding. Source: Nutrien

20 Benefit from Equity Stake Sales and Expected Fourth-Quarter Seasonal Cash Inflow 20 NTR Net Debt 1 US$ Billions NTR Net Debt/Adjusted EBITDA Ratio Estimated range 2 Estimated range Q Q4 2018F 0 Q Q4 2018F 2 3 Expect significant decline in net debt with equity sales and seasonal cash flow; maintained strong investment grade rating Projected net debt to EBITDA ratio below 2 times following equity sales 1 Net debt is the total of short-term debt and long-term debt less cash and cash equivalents. This is a non-ifrs financial measure. 2 Adjusted EBITDA represents a twelve-month rolling period. This is a Non-IFRS measure and/or the historical combined results of PotashCorp and Agrium. See the Forward Looking Statement and Select Non-IFRS Financial Measures and Reconciliations and Supplemental Information in Nutrien s Q news release. 3 Based on the mid-point of Nutrien s annual adjusted EBITDA guidance range as of November 5, Source: Nutrien

21 Significant Return of Cash to Shareholders in NTR Cash Returned to Shareholders US$ Billions Dividend Yield Percent 3.0 Dividends Paid Shares repurchased F 0.0 NTR 2 Peers 3 Returning $2.8B to shareholders in 2018; opportunity to grow returns through the cycle 1 This is a Non-IFRS measure and/or the historical combined results of PotashCorp and Agrium. See the Forward Looking Statement and Select Non-IFRS Financial Measures and Reconciliations and Supplemental Information in Nutrien s Q news release. 2 Dividend yield based upon NTR share price at close of market January 11, 2019 and the declared $0.43/share quarterly dividend on an annual basis. 3 Peer average is based upon the simple average of the annualized dividend yields for MOS, CF, CVR, IPI, SQM, APOT, YAR, K+S, ICL and Sinofert at January 12, Source: Factset, Nutrien

22 Nutrien Providing Industry Leading Returns to Shareholders 22 Shareholder Returns/Market Capitalization 1 Percent 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% NTR CF MOS Returning $2.8B to shareholders in 2018; our ability to grow shareholder returns through the cycle is unmatched 1 Shareholder returns based on dividends paid and share repurchased YTD 2018 as of Sept 30 financial statements for NTR and peers. Market capitalization as of market close January 11, 2019 Source: Factset, Nutrien

23 Nutrien Provides Unique Investment Opportunity in the Agriculture Sector 23 Leading position in both retail/distribution (stable & growing earnings base) and crop nutrient production Clear line of sight on expected $600M in annual operating synergies; $401M run rate achieved as at September 30, 2018 Significant free cash flow expected to provide opportunity for meaningful shareholder returns: $2.8 billion returned in 2018 Unmatched upside to a recovery in crop nutrient markets - $25/mt improvement in nutrient prices expected to generate ~$650M in EBITDA Source: Nutrien

24 Appendix INVESTOR PRESENTATION

25 Nutrien Retail Provides Full Solutions Offering to the Grower 25 Bulk Fertilizer Distribution >3.5MMt of storage capacity globally Custom blending at many locations Unmatched product availability and timeliness >1,300 storage and distribution sites across North America Application Services We apply fertilizer & crop protection products on ~60% of our U.S. customer acreage 10th largest rolling stock in the U.S. Seed Solutions On-site seed treatment and bulk handling Access to a wide selection of brands & genetics without bias Complete Advice & Services ~3,300 agronomists and crop advisers Extensive collective expertise & training Financial Services and lending Crop Protection Products Bulk product handling and blending can be delivered within hours >10,000 products to protect >200 crops >99% of sales are branded products ~25% of sales are high-margin proprietary products Innovation and Technology Launched integrated digital platform in 2018 Access to leading edge new technology Backward integration with emerging technology companies Billions invested to ensure on time delivery & highest level of service, advice & technology solutions Source: Nutrien

26 Retail: A Leading Agricultural Solutions Provider 26 Broad Crop Diversity Revenue by Crop Percent Complete Ag Solutions Offering Gross Margin (2017) Billions Proprietary Products Gross Margin 1 (2017) Millions $2.9B 700 Veg, 5% All Other, 14% Corn, 24% Merchandise 4% Services/Other 16% Perm. Crops, 8% Seed 11% 400 Cotton, 7% Canola, 9% Wheat, 17% Crop Nutrients 29% Soybean, 16% 100 Crop Protection 40% Proprietary Seed Proprietary Nutrional Products Proprietary Crop Protection Products Crop inputs & services for over 50 different crops Providing everything growers need to maximize yields 3,300 crop advisors Consistent growth platform of higher margin products valued by growers 1 Excludes Dalgety animal health products. Source: Nutrien

27 Retail Network Optimization Tuck-ins, Targeted Builds & Closures 27 Tuck-in Acquisitions YTD Nov 18 # of Locations Acquired ~ Total Annual Sales 1 (U.S. millions) $210 $477 $128 $192 $190 $500+ ~$300 ~$360 >$2, Annual EBITDA (U.S. millions) (Year 1) Cumulative Global Store Closures & Consolidations $27 $49 $12 $32 $20 ~$35 ~$23 ~$30 >$ Major Hub Locations Across the U.S Cumulative Store Closures U.S. Canada Australia South America 1 Does not include revenue from equity positions in joint ventures. Source: Nutrien

28 Retail: Multiple Levers Driving EBITDA Growth 28 Retail EBITDA Growth Drivers Percent ( ) Retail EBITDA Growth by Region Percent ( ) Optimization, ~30% $75 Acquisitions, ~40% $75 $75 International, 47% North America, 53% Organic Growth, ~30% Retail Earnings Growth Drivers 1. Acquisitions/greenfield in existing markets & Brazilian growth potential (Agrichem) 2. Continued expansion of proprietary product lines & digital ag capabilities 3. Optimization/Cost reduction - optimize footprint and leverage procurement scale Source: Nutrien

29 Significant Room for Further U.S. Retail Consolidation 29 CHS, 3% Pinnacle, 4% Simplot Retail, 2% Wilbur-Ellis, 4% Growmark, 5% Co-ops, 30% Our share in other key regions is ~30% Helena, 7% Helena, 7% Nutrien, 19% Significant market share held by independent retailers in the U.S. Agrium, 17% Independents, 26% Over 19% market share with only 10% of the facilities Source: CropLife, Nutrien

30 Crop Nutrient Production: Large and Diverse Asset Base 30 Total Combined Sales Volumes 1 (2017) Million Tonnes 14.0 Geographic Combined Sales Volumes 1 (2017) Percent, 0, Potash North America 39% 10.0 Offshore 61% Nitrogen Offshore 17% Canada 19% US 64% Potash Nitrogen Phosphate & Sulfate Phosphate & Sulfate Offshore 17% Canada 34% US 50% Nutrien is the largest crop nutrient producer in the world, with 29 potash, nitrogen and phosphate facilities in North and South America. 1 This is a Non-IFRS measure and/or the historical combined results of PotashCorp and Agrium. See the Forward Looking Statement and Select Non-IFRS Financial Measures and Reconciliations and Supplemental Information in Nutrien s Q news release. Refers to manufactured product only. Source: Nutrien

31 Global Crop Nutrient Prices 31 Selected Fertilizer Prices Potash - CFR Brazil ($/mt) Urea New Orleans Barge FOB ($/mt) DAP - FOB Tampa ($/mt) 150 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar Drivers Potash Suppliers are well-committed into 2019 as demand continues to be strong in key markets and inventories in markets such as Brazil ended 2018 at low levels Nitrogen Prices declined in early 2019 due to seasonally slow demand, however strong US demand and limited new capacity is expected to be supportive in 2019 Phosphate Prices declined in late 2018 as raw material prices and seasonal demand declined, but liquid fertilizers and purified acid prices remain firm Source: Fertilizer Week, Nutrien

32 2018 Highlights Record Global Potash Demand Projected in Global Potash Shipments by Region Million Tonnes KCl Previous Record: 6.3mmt (2010) Previous Record: 10.1mmt (2017) Previous Record: 11.1mmt (1997) Previous Record: 12.2mmt (2017) Previous Record: 15.8mmt (2015) Previous Record: 13.7mmt (1997) F F F F F F India Other Asia North America Latin America China Other Mmt Expect modest demand growth in line with positive consumption trends despite reduced subsidy rates for 2018/19 FY Mmt Demand supported by record palm oil production and robust crop economics for a wide range of key crops Mmt Steady demand supported by strong affordability and significant removal of nutrients following consecutive large harvests Mmt Improved crop economics and acreage growth in nutrient deficient regions has supported strong potash demand Mmt Strong consumption trends supported by affordability and a shift to more potassium-intensive crops like fruits and vegetables Mmt Good affordability and growing demand for NPK fertilizers, including in Africa, are expected to boost potash demand Global demand is expected to reach a record million mt Source: CRU, Fertecon, IFA, Nutrien

33 Global Potash Producer Sales 33 Global Potash Producer Sales Changes Million Tonnes KCl Producer Sales North America FSU Asia South Europe Middle America East 2018E Producer Sales North American producers are expected to fill the void left by lower 2018 production in the rest of the world Source: CRU, Fertecon, Company Reports, Nutrien

34 4 Favorable Potash Market Fundamentals 34 Global Potash Consumption Million Tonnes KCl Global Potash Capacity 1 % Share (2017) Greenfield Capital Intensity Cost per Tonne 2 (US$) $3,000 $2, All Other Producers, 27% Nutrien, 23% $2,000 Range $2, Other Top 5 Producers, 50% $1,000 7 to 10 years construction & ramp up 10 0 Top 5 Producers, 73% $0 Highest growth rate of the primary crop nutrients Concentration of high-quality deposits Long development times and high capital costs 1 Based on nameplate capacity, which may exceed operational capability. 2 Estimates for a conventional 2-million-tonne mine in Saskatchewan. Source: AMEC, CRU, Fertecon, IFA, Nutrien

35 Potash: Historically Strong Margins and Volume Growth Throughout the Nutrient Cycle 35 Sales Volume 1 Gross Margin 2 Million Tonnes KCl Percent Combined Sales Volumes Gross Margin % of Net Sales ~ 5 Mmt of incremental production capability 3 90% 80% 10 70% 60% 8 50% 6 40% 4 30% 20% 2 10% 0 0% F 4 Nutrien potash margins supported by lower delivered cost position and favorable market characteristics 1 Based on combined historical sales for Agrium and PotashCorp for 1998 to Historical potash gross margin as a percentage of net sales based on legacy PotashCorp financial information. 3 Based on estimated annual achievable production in Saskatchewan; assuming fully staffed operations F represents guidance range of 12.5 to 13 million tonnes as of November 5, Source: Nutrien

36 Nitrogen: Nutrien Has Low Cost Nitrogen Assets With Regional Advantages 36 Nutrien Manufactured Nitrogen Profile Million Tonnes (2017) Urea Cash Cost & Price Comparison US$/Tonne 12.0 $ PNW Urea Price 10.0 $300 Other Cost Gas Cost Solutions & Nitrates Equity Investments Canada $ NOLA Urea Price Urea 2.5 US $ Ammonia 2.2 Trinidad $0 0.0 Product Sales Ammonia Capacity Nutrien s diverse nitrogen assets expected to generate exceptional margins in almost any market conditions * Western Canadian cash cost is shown as FOB. Source: CRU, Fertecon, Argus, Nutrien

37 37 U.S. Offshore Nitrogen Imports 37 US Offshore Nitrogen Imports Million Tonnes Product 14 Urea NH3 UAN s 1990s 2000s E The US remains a significant net importer of all three major nitrogen products Source: BJA, USDOC, TFI, Nutrien

38 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 European Natural Gas Costs Support Nitrogen Prices 38 Natural Gas Prices US$/MMBtu Henry Hub AECO European Hub High European natural gas prices support marginal nitrogen costs and prices; Relatively low NA natural gas costs and increased nitrogen prices support Nutrien margins Source: Fertecon, Nutrien

39 Tight Chinese Urea Supplies Reduce Exports 39 Chinese Urea Exports Million Tonnes % -47% China s Urea Capacity Closures (Million Tonnes) F -51% Chinese Port Urea Inventories (Million Tonnes) (January) E 2019F Chinese exports increased seasonally in late 2018, but inventories remain low Source: CRU, Fertecon, Profercy Nutrien

40 Expect Improvement in Global Phosphate Supply & Demand Over the Medium Term 40 Global Phosphate Operational Capability & Demand Million Tonnes P2O5 Global Utilization Rate 1 Percent 60 Demand Operational Capability 100% 50 95% 40 90% 30 85% 20 80% 10 75% 0 70% Low operating rates in China projected to balance the market in the short-term; demand growth projected to exceed capacity additions from 2020-forward 1 Based on estimated operational capability. Source: CRU, Nutrien

41 Thank you! For further information please visit Nutrien s website at: Follow Nutrien on: twitter.com/nutrienltd facebook.com/nutrienltd linkedin.com/company/nutrien INVESTOR PRESENTATION