IRB Infrastructure Ltd INITIATING COVERAGE

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1 IRB Infrastructure Ltd INITIATING COVERAGE Industry Mr. M H KALE Chief Financial Officer IRB INFRASTRUCTURE LTD (O) Stock metrics Bloomberg code Reuters code BSE Group IRB IN IRBI.BO BSE Code NSE Code A IRB INFRA Face Value Rs 10 ISIN NO Market Data INE Market Cap (Rs Cr) WeekHigh/Low /65.00 Sensex Nifty 4625 Average volume Shareholding Pattern : 7.09% 10.86% 73.86% 8.19% FIIs Promoters MF & Insurance Public Research Analyst Ashish Pandey ashish.pandey@inventuregrowth.com Denil Savla denil.savla@inventuregrowth.com September 3 rd 2009 Infrastructure 1 I N V E N T U R E. Current Price Rs Potential Upside 32% Target Price Rs Time Frame 24 Months IRB INFRASTRUCTURE - Road to Prosperity IRB Infrastructure Developers Ltd. continues to play a bigger role on the increasing demand from the recent infrastructure thrust to develop Roads, National Highways, Bridges and Tunnels in India. It is one of the top most leaders in the BOT based project in the Road development Programme. IRB order book remain to be healthy with Rs 5660crs (as on June2009) which is bifurcated between EPC - Rs 30,93Crs (EPC in ongoing BOT Projects 2866Crs + Funded Projects 2,27Crs) with an average execution period of months & O&M Rs 2,567Crs with an execution period of years. The Company enjoys the margin of ~ 16% in the construction order book compare to 10-11% of industry standard which is mainly due to on account of the lower subcontracting cost & larger equipment base. We remain positive on the fundamentals of the company going forward. At the CMP, the stock trades at a EV/EBITDA multiple of 17.74x, 8.74x & 6.50x its FY09, FY10E & FY11E earnings. Valuation We expect the revenue & net profit to grow at the CAGR of 62% & 68% for the period from FY09 to FY11E. We have done the SOTP Valuation for IRB INFRA. DCF Valuation of BOT projects aggregates to Rs /shares while the EPC contributes nearly at Rs 60.94/share. NAV of the 1250acres of land contributes the land value at Rs 5.94/share, Wind Mills at Rs 3.18, & Cash with holding company at The SOTP of the complete valuation of the IRB Infra comes at Rs / share with an upside of 32%. We initiate coverage on IRB Infrastructure with a BUY rating with huge order book backup. Year Ended March F Y 08 F Y 09 F Y 10E F Y 11E Net Sales (Rs.Crs) growth (%) EBIDTA (Rs.Crs) growth (%) PBT (Rs.Crs) growth (%) Net Profit (Rs.Crs) growth (%) EBIDTA Margins (%) Net Profit Margins (%) EPS ROE (%) EV/EBIDTA (x) PE Source:- IGSL Research

2 TABLE OF CONTENT Table of Contents Page no. Investment Thesis 3 Company Back ground... 5 Business Segments... 8 Industry Outlook Indian Road Industry 10 BOT Projects NHDP Programme Public Private Partnership 15 Infrastructure Sector. 16 Peer Group in BOT Segments 18 PAN India Presence 20 Order Book Composition. 21 Recent Awarded Projects. 22 Concerns 24 Financial Charts. 25 Quarter Analysis 29 Target Price Derivation. 30 Profit & Loss A/C Analysis 31 Balance Sheet Analysis 32 Cash Flow Statement 33 Ratio Analysis 34 2

3 Investment Thesis Road freight industry growing at the robust pace of 9.9% CAGR boost IRB infra to be most prominent road player Positive growth of the road infrastructure in India helps IRB Infra utmost: - India has the world's second largest road network after the United States of America (USA), aggregating nearly around 3.34mn kilometers (km). As Planning Commission of India, has predicted the road freight industry would be growing at the robust pace of 9.9% CAGR from to Indian Government has launched the ambitious National Highway Development Programme (NHDP) involving a total investment of US$ 54.1 billion up to In , NHAI has infused US$ 4 billion in the NHDP. The Eleventh Five Year Plan envisages a total investment of approximately Rs.3,14,152Crs (US$ $) over the period of 5 years starting from Many road projects with public-private partnerships (PPP) are also on the anvil. IRB Infra developing nearly 1200km of roads & highways. Performance driven record of IRB Infra in infrastructure development & Construction based BOT projects in the Roads & Highways: - IBR Infra has a decade of strong experience in the infrastructure & construction business. The Company is involved in the construction and then maintenance of nearly 1200 km of roads & highways in India which gives IRB Infra a strong presence across its peers in bidding the new & large BOT projects which enables it to capitalize opportunities available in the upcoming growing sector in India. IRB Infra claims ~ 7.6% market share in Golden Quadrilateral Rising demand of Infrastructure development helps IRB Infra Road to prosperity: - IRB Infrastructure is a strong beneficiary of increased infrastructure spending commitment from the government of India. Investments in road infrastructure is seen at Rs 3,142bn (Rs 3,14,152Crs) during the 11th Five year plan and Rs 8,831bn (Rs Crs) during the 12th Five year plan. Presently the company claims ~7.6% market share in the Golden Quadrilateral project and is one of the largest BOT developers in the country. Improving economic condition helps higher traffic flow leads the IRB Improved economic conditions leading to increased commercial and passenger traffic: - As the economic activity in the country has been improved which will lead to recover the commercial vehicles and passenger car traffic resulting in higher traffic flow in IRB s key road projects. We estimate the company to be benefited from the improved economic situation. 3

4 Key player among its competitor with highest order book in the Road projects Strong Order Book helps IRB to make presence in road based development projects Strong in house E&C, which helps IRB to execute projects on its strong capability I N V E N T U R E. Best player among its peers in the road developers business: - IRB Infra is one of the largest BOT developers & earlier entrant in the Public Private Partnership program having 16 road BOT projects. The company has maintained its leadership position in this segment through interest in high traffic corridors like the Mumbai-Pune expressway. Additionally the company has forayed into India s first BOT urban infrastructure project through Integrated Road Development project in the city of Kolhapur. Healthy Order Book: - IBR Infra order book remains to be healthy ~Rs 5660crs which is bifurcated between EPC in ongoing Projects 2,866Crs, Funded Projects 227Crs with an average execution period of months & O&M Rs. 2,567Crs with an execution period of years. The order book is set to improve substantially once the financial closure of new projects will be achieved. The Company enjoys margin of ~ 16% in the construction order book compare to 10-11% of industry standard, which is mainly due to the account of the lower subcontracting cost & larger equipment base. This will thus help IRB Infra to improve its order inflow as well as create strong revenue visibility in coming years. Integrated in-house E&C helps IRB Infra of having strongest execution capability: - IRB boasts for an in house execution capability for its engineering procurement & construction works for its BOT assets as well as the funded projects. The operation and maintenance of the operational assets is also carried out through this subsidiary. We believe that carrying out the E&C operations in-house gives the company an ability to monitor the projects more closely and also keep the quality in check. The division is also executing some funded projects which include the EPC contract for highway section between Nagpur and Hyderabad package 59 and 61 awarded by NHAI and the BRTS project in Ahmedabad. Focus beyond Maharashtra & Gujarat recently awarded projects at other parts of the country Moving toward PAN INDIA presence:- IRB was recently awarded BOT projects located in states of Rajasthan, Punjab and Goa. This is the first time that the company has moved out of its otherwise stronghold of Maharashtra and Gujarat. We view this as a positive development and look at this as an enabler to the company for developing long-term capabilities for executing projects in various states of the country. 4

5 Company Profile in details Company Background IRB Infrastructure Developers Ltd. is a Mumbai based Infrastructure development & Construction Company over the two decade of experience in building Roads & Highways both as Contractor & Operator set up by Mr. Virendra D. Mhaiskar. IRB is a pioneer in the road BOT business and is one the largest road BOT operators in the country with 16 BOT (Build Operate & Transfer) projects under its belt. IRB holds a market share of 7.56% on the Golden Quadrilateral. IRB Infrastructure Developers Ltd. (IRB) is a holding company for the infrastructure assets of the IRB group. The Company undertakes development of various infrastructure projects in the road sector through several Special Purpose Vehicles. IRB's work spans from building of roads, highways, bridges, and tunnels, recently the company diversified its business into real estate development sector also. Most of the work in both our infrastructure development business and construction business is won on a competitive bidding basis. The infrastructure development business involves construction, development and operation of infrastructure development projects. They are an established infrastructure company in the roads sector in India and have large portfolio of completed and operational BOT projects in the Indian road infrastructure sector. Their construction business complements their infrastructure development business and involves engineering, procurement and construction work for construction projects on a contractual basis, including in the roads sector. The company over the past two decades has maintained its focus on road BOT projects and has been involved in developing 1400 kms of highways & roads. It generates a toll of ~Rs.17mn/ day (Incl. Surat Dahisar from Feb 19th 2009) which is estimated increase to ~Rs.25-30mn/day by Q2FY10. The company is having very strong expertise in tolling operation & construction business The company has a strong revenue visibility for its BOT project as it operates 10 cash generating projects with an average concession period for ~ 10years. The Company has recently diversified its business into the real estate development sector. The proposed township project is the first real estate development project undertaken by the company & it is in preliminary stage of planning and development. They are in the process of acquiring land in Mauje Taje and Mauje Pimploli Taluka in Pune district in the State of Maharashtra in India on which they propose to develop an integrated township. Also IRB intends to acquire approximately 250 acres of additional land for the proposed township project. 5

6 Subsidiaries Subsidiaries of IBRD Holding of IRB Infra Developers Ltd. Profile/ Business of Subsidary Infrastructure Development & Construction Business Ideal Road Builders Pvt. Ltd. (IRBPL) 100% BOT projects (Thane Bhiwandi bypass BOT & Kaman Paygaon BOT). Bhiwandi Wada BOT & Khambhatki Ghat concession period over. Modern Road Makers Pvt. Ltd 100% Engineering & Construction Arm. Aryan Toll Road Pvt. Ltd. 100% Pune - Solapur BOT (29.81 km NH9) ATR Infrastructure Pvt. Ltd 100% Pune - Nashik BOT (29.81 km NH 50) Mhaiskar Infrastructure Pvt. Ltd. Thane Ghodbunder Toll Road Pvt. Ltd (74% held by IRBD & 26% by IRBPL) 100 (74% held by IRBD & 26% by IRBPL) Mumbai - Pune BOT (206 km MPEW & NH4) Thane Ghodbunder Toll Road BOT (14.9 km) IDAA Infrastructure Pvt. Ltd. NKT Road & Toll Pvt. Ltd. IRB Infrastructure Pvt. Ltd. 100 (53.29% held by IRBD, 10.81% by ATRPL, 23.75% held by ATR Infra & 12.05% held by IRBPL) 100 (53.33% held by IRBD & 46.67% by IRBPL) 100 (80.15% held by IRBD & 19.85% held by IRBPL) Bharuch - Surat BOT (65 km NH8) Ahmednagar - Karmala - Tembhurni Road (60 km) Bridge over Patalganga River Kharpada BOT (1.4 km) MMK Toll Road Pvt. Ltd. 100 (100% held by IRBPL) Mohol - Kurul - Kamati - Mandrup Road (33 km SH 149) IRB Surat Dahisar Tollway Pvt. Ltd 90 (10% held by Deutsche Bank) Surat - Dahisar Road 239 km NH-8 IRB Kolhapur Integrated Road Development Company Source: Company 100 (80% IRB, 10% MRMPL & 10% ATR Infra) Real Estate Business 6 Integrated Road Development in the city of Kolhapur Aryan Infrastructure Investments Pvt. Ltd 66 Land Bank Adjoining the MPEW - Aryan Hospitality Pvt. Ltd 100

7 Professional Management The company is professionally managed and Mr. Virendra D Mhaiskar, the Managing Director, looks after day-to-day management. Name Designation Experience Managements having there strong expertise, skills & experience are require effectively to manage & direct the company towards the future growth story going ahead Mr. Virendra D. Mhaiskar Dattatraya P Mhaiskar Deepali V Mhaiskar Chairperson & Managing director Director Director Over 18 years 47 years Around 9 years Suresh G Kelkar Director 40 years Bhalchandra K Khare Director Over 42 years Govind G Desai Director Over 20 years Chandrashekhar S Kaptan Mehul N Patel Sivaramkrishnan S Iyer Director Company Secretary Director 32 years 9 years Over 20 years Mr Kale CFO More than 30 years Anil D Yadav Dy CFO Over 5 years Source: Company 7

8 Business Overview IRB Infrastructure developers Ltd.(IRBD) is a holding company for the infrastructure assets of the IRB group. The Company, earlier was known as DVJ Leasing and Finance Private Limited, was incorporated as a Private Limited Company in 1998 and was formed to fund the capital requirements of the infrastructure and construction sector ventures of the IRB Group. The company business comprises of two segments namely Construction & Development of Roads & Highways (Roads BOT s) and recent foray into Real Estate development business to develop the integrated township of approx 1250 acres in Pune District, Maharashtra. Revenue generating business of IRB INFRA i.e. Engineering & Construction of Roads highways & tunnel & Real Estate. IRB s road business is conducted in two verticals viz. 1) Engineering & Construction 2) Toll Collection & Maintenance. In the road BOT business, IRB currently has 12 projects, out of which 10 are commissioned, 2 are under implementation. IRB, through its E&C business arm viz. Modern Road Makers Private Limited (MRM), has gathered significant experience (approx 1200 kms.) in constructing road projects. With its 66% subsidiary viz. Aryan Infrastructure Investments Private Limited, IRB plans to foray into the real estate sector by developing a township near Pune. Mumbai Based Contractor having 12 strong BOT roads based projects in its portfolios. Construction or O&M of ~1,400kms of highways & roads across the country Roads BOT s: - The Company currently has 12 BOT s Projects housed in 11 SPV nearly 800Kms across Gujarat & Maharashtra, out of which 10 BOT s projects are operational, where the construction certificate has been issued and the project under SPV has started earning revenues from the toll collection. Other is under construction and two at financial closure stage. One of the country s earliest BOT projects, Thane Bhiwandi Bypass was implemented by one of the subsidiaries of IRB in Currently the total length of around 800kms is under IRB s fold as a BOT operator, for a concession period of years, this being the largest BOT portfolio in the country which has been executed by the IRB Group. Engineering & Construction (E&C):- All construction work undertaken by the IRB Group for BOT projects and funded construction contracts are executed by its subsidiary, Modern Road Makers Pvt. Ltd. (MRMPL). Since its inception, the entity has been involved in construction or O&M of ~1,400kms of highways & roads across the country. 8

9 Sr. No Projects Lengths in Kms No of Toll Collection Locations 1) Mumbai Pune Corridor a) Mumbai Pune Expressway 95 4 b) Mumbai - Pune (NH4) ) Pune - Solapur ) Pune - Nashik ) Thane Bhiwandi Bypass ) Thane Ghodbhunder Road ) Ahmednagar -Karmala Tembhurni Road ) Mohol Kurul Mandrup Road ) Bridge over Patalganga River 1 1 9) Kaman - Paygaon Road ) Bharuch Surat ) Surat Dahisar ) Kolhapur IRDP( Under Construction) 50 9 TOTAL Source: Company Toll collection is nearly Rs20 million which is expected to rise to Rs30-35 million in coming period Foray into the real Estates Business. Foray into the Green Energy Business. Operations and Maintenance (O&M):- IRB is the largest BOT operator in India today. IRB s daily toll collection is nearly Rs20 million which is expected to rise to Rs30-35 million after two more projects become operational by June The only company managing operation & maintenance of over 5kms of tunnels. IRB s toll revenues have significantly increased from April 2008 due to 18% hike in the toll rates of the Mumbai-Pune Expressway and NH4 in terms of the concession agreement. This asset contributes nearly 36% to IRB s consolidated revenue. Real Estate Development: - IRB plans to foray in the real estate arena by developing an integrated township development of approx acres in Pune District, Maharashtra. The proposed township is expected to yield a total saleable area of ~30.6mn sq.ft. & would be developed over a period of 8-10 years. The Company has the land bank of 1250 acres currently & proposed acquisition of new land reserve of 150 acres is in a process, which would get more than 6 months to acquire. Green Energy:-A wholly owned subsidiary of the IRB viz. Modern Road Makers Pt ltd. (MRM) has forayed into the Green Energy sector in association with Suzlon Energy Ltd. MRM has installed 16 wind Mills of 1.25 MW each in Jaisalmer, Rajasthan. 9

10 World's 2 nd largest road network, aggregating 3.34mn kilometer & industry will grow by CAGR of 9.9% in XIth Five Year Plan Ambitious NHDP Programme involving a total investment of US$ 78.5 billion upto 2012 Industry Outlook Indian Road Industry I N V E N T U R E. Development of infrastructure would not only ameliorate the supply side bottlenecks to growth, but also provide the requisite demand side stimulus to growth. The rapid construction of highways facilitates human and material movement across the country. Apart from improving connectivity, the development of secondary and tertiary roads can open up hitherto unconnected regions to trade and investment and step up access to goods, services and employment opportunities. The country s road network consists of national highways, state highways, major district roads, other district roads and village roads. India has the world's second largest road network, aggregating over 3.34mn kilometers (km). According to the Planning Commission, the road freight industry will be growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.9 per cent from to A target of 1,231 billion tonnes km (BTK) has been put on road freight volumes for Growth Potential of Indian Road According to Economic Survey, the share of road transport in the GDP is over 4.6% in 2007(as against 3.8% in 2000), accounting for over two-thirds of the total transport contribution to the GDP. Road transport has emerged as a dominant segment in India s transportation sector, growing at an annual average rate of 9.5% during & as against 6.5% growth rate of GDP. The Indian government has launched the ambitious National Highway Development Programme (NHDP) involving a total investment of US$78.5 billion up to In itself, the NHAI has infused US$4 billion in the NHDP. It has also started the Bharat Nirman Programme that aims to cover every village having a population of over 1,000 or over 500 in hilly and tribal areas, with all-weather roads. For the Roads and Bridges sector, the Eleventh Five Year Plan envisages a total investment of approximately US$78.5 billion over the five-year period starting from Of this the shares of the Centre, State & Public are expected to be 34.2%, 31.8% & 34% respectively. As part of a larger plan to improve the country's infrastructure, the government has given the nod to 10 road projects which will be built in public-private partnership at an estimated cost of US$2.48 billion. The projects are aimed at four-laning of national highways in eight states. 10

11 Indian largest road network around 3.3mn km, which is the second largest in the world, which carries 65% of freight and 80% of the passenger traffic, carried out by road whereas National Highways constitute only about 2% of the road network but carry about 40% of the total road traffic Annuity Based BOT Projects are based on concession or semi annual payment... Size of the Industry I N V E N T U R E. Indian road network is around 3.34mn km, which is the second largest in the world. Nearly about 65% of freight and 80% of the passenger traffic is carried out by road whereas National Highways constitute only about 2% of the road network but carry about 40% of the total road traffic. Number of vehicles has been growing at an average pace of 10.16% per annum over the last five years. Indian Road Network Length in KM % in KM Expressway National Highways 66, State Highway 1,31, Major District Roads 4,67, Rural & other Road 26,50, Total Length 33,00,000 (Approx) 100% Source: NHAI BOT Projects Build-Operate-Transfer ( BOT ) Under this type of PPP contract, the Government grants to a contractor a concession to finance, build, operate and maintain a facility for the concession period. During the concession period, the operator collects user fees and applies these to cover the costs of construction, debt servicing and operations. At the end of the concession period, the facility is transferred back to the public authority. BOT projects can be annuity-based or toll-based, as defined below BOT annuity-based projects: Under this form, the concessionaire is responsible for constructing and maintaining the project facility. The GOI, usually through the NHAI in the case of highway projects, pays the concessionaire a semi-annual payment, or annuity. The concession contract is awarded to the bidder, which, among other criteria, quotes the lowest annuity amount. Under this approach, the amount of income collected by the concessionaire is not directly related to the usage level of the project. In the context of highway projects, the amount of income is not by direct reference to the number of vehicles using the highway. Instead, the risk that traffic, and consequently user fees, may be lower than expected is borne by the NHAI alone. However, the NHAI retains the right to charge users a toll at any stage of the project and it also retains all rights to property development, advertising at the project site and other revenue-generating activities. 11

12 Toll Based BOT Projects to promote private sector involvement Contract project based on engineering, design, specification & Execution BOT toll-based projects: In order to reduce the dependence on its own funds and to promote private sector involvement in developing projects, the NHAI has awarded some highway projects on a toll basis. In this case, the concessionaire is responsible for constructing and maintaining the project as well as being allowed to collect revenues through tolls during the concession period. After the expiry of the concession period, the project is transferred back to the NHAI. Engineering Procurement Construction/Lump-Sum Turnkey EPC/Turnkey ) Contracts In this form of contract, contractors are required to quote a fixed sum for the execution of an entire project including design, engineering and execution in accordance with drawings, designs and specifications submitted by the contractor and approved by the customer. The contractor bears the risk of incorrect estimation of the amount of work, materials or time required for the job. Escalation clauses might exist in some cases to cover, at least partially, cost overruns. Operations and Maintenance ( O&M ) Contracts Typically an operations and maintenance contract is issued for operating and maintaining facilities. This could be in sectors such as water, highways, buildings & power. The contract specifies routine maintenance activities to be undertaken at a predetermined frequency as well as breakdown maintenance during the contract period. While the contractor is paid for the routine maintenance based on the quoted rates, which are largely a function of manpower, consumables and maintenance equipment to be deployed at the site, any breakdown maintenance is paid for on a cost plus basis NHDP Program A Biggest Opportunity The largest highway project ever undertaken in the country is being implemented by the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI). India is having one of the second largest road networks in the world after Unites States of America but however the usability of the road in India is not so far properly utilized by the Government of India (GOI) yet till. The Indian Road Networks comprises of Expressway, National Highways Rural & Other roads. 12

13 Indian Road Network 14% 4% 2% 80% 0.1% Expressways State Highways Rural & other Roads National Highways Majors District Roads Source: NHAI Development of NHDP programme help Investment Opportunity for IRB across the Road development remain on the Top Priority.. Huge Investment Opportunity in Roads remain on the Top Priority The National Highways (NH), with a total length of 66,590 km, serves as the arterial network across the country. As of now, nearly 33,097 Kms of NHDP has been approved by the Union Cabinet. Phase-I and II of the NHDP envisaged 4/6laning of about 14,279 kilometers of National Highways at a total estimated cost of Rs. 65,000Crs (at 2004 prices). These two phases consists of the ongoing programme of four-laning the 5846 km long Golden Quadrilateral (GQ) connecting Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata is nearing completion. The ongoing four-laning of the 7,142 km North-South East-West (NSEW) corridor is to be completed by December During the XIth five year plan, Government has targeted completion of the GQ and NS-EW corridors; four-laning of 12,109km under NHDP Phase III at the cost of 80,626Crs. In addition to the above mentioned approved projects, there is a proposal for two-laning of 20,000km of National Highways under NHDP Phase IV. The government has also approved six-laning of Golden Quadrilateral of 6500km selected stretches under NHDP Phase V at the overall cost at 41,210Crs and development of 1,000km of expressways under NHDP Phase VI at the cost of Rs 16,680Cr. Construction of ring roads, grade separated intersection, flyovers, elevated highways, ROB s, underpasses and service roads at a cost of Rs. 16,680Crs under NHDP Phase-VII. 13

14 NHAI Target Achieved NHDP Component Total Length Completed 4 lane I N V E N T U R E. The implementation of NHDP had been faced with a number of constraints that include delays in land acquisition and removal of structures, shifting of utilities, law and order problem in some States and poor performance of some contractors. Regardless of these constraints, the impact on the economy due to completion of about 96 per cent of the GQ is already visible. All the abovementioned projects would be financed through various sources of Under Implementation Balance for award of civil works Target For Completion Golden Quadrilateral 5,846 5,721(96%) March 2007 NS- EW 7,142 3,436 2, December 2009 Port Connectivity December 2009 Other NH s December 2009 NHDP Phase III 12, ,878 9,444 December 2009 NHDP Phase V ,470 December 2012 NHDP Phase VII December 2015 Total 33,639 11,037 6,194 16,412 Source: - Ministry of Road Transport & Highways funds like cess, loan assistance from the World Bank and ADB, The funds required for the development of the National Highways would be fulfilling by World Bank & ADB borrowings by NHAI, estimated surplus amount available from the user s fee as well as the share of private sector. Various sources of funding to finance these projects have been finalized and the financing plan implementation by the year 2015 has been approved. The requirement of funds during the 11th Plan ( ) for implementation of NHDP has been worked out. The total amount required during this period is about Rs. 1,73,501Crs. NHDP Programme helps in rising demand for future Infrastructure development:- The Committee on Infrastructure headed by the Honorable Prime Minister has proposed a massive National Highways Development Programme as follows:- 14

15 Source NHAI Source NHAI Name of the Projects Likely Cost ( Rs. Crs) Completion of the GQ & EW- NS Corridor Laning of 11,113 km under NHDP Phase III Laning with paved shoulders of 20,000 km of National Highways under NHDP IV 6- Laning of selected stretched of National Highways under NHPD Phase V Development of 1000 km of expressway under NHDP Phase VI Construction of rings roads, Flyovers & by passes on selected under NHDP Phase - VII TOTAL 227,258 Sr No Funding Source Amount (Rs Crs) 1 Cess 36,589 2 External Assistance 4,459 3 Borrowings by NHAI 41,615 4 Surplus from the user free 3,108 5 Share of Private Sector 87,735 Total 1,73,501 Public Private Partnership is a key vehicle for the forthcoming BOT projects in recent years from GOI Concession Period getting Longer, - Focus based on Public Private Partnership vehicle which making forthcoming BOT Projects order pipeline looks melodiously. The Government of India (GOI) has amended the Nation Highways Act, Since the 1997 the GOI has allowed the private players to construct & develop all the new road projects approved which are based on Public Private Partnership Model in Jan Feb 2009 which have concession period (time for construction & collection of the toll revenue) of years projects. Since then the public private partnership has come a long way & currently evolved as a prominent player s vehicle for the implementation of projects with new NHDP program. At the time, we believe that the order pipeline in the road sector looks quite impressive level. It has been decided that all the sub projects in NHDP Phase III to Phase VII would be taken up on the basis of PPP on BOT mode. 15

16 Source NHAI Project - Road Stretch Length Programme Project Cost (INR bn) State Concession Period 4 - laning 188 NHDP III 17.5 Andhra Pradesh 30 Cuddapah Kurnool 4 - laning 58 NHDP II 6.9 Kerala 20 Walayar Vadakkancherry 4 - laning 64 NHDP III 6 Andhra Pradesh 25 Cuddapah Kurnool 6 laning 30 NHDP II 6.4 Kerala 20 Vadakkancherry Thrissur 6 laning 179 NHDP V 25 U.P./ Haryana 26 Delhi Agra 6 laning 315 NHDP V 36 Rajasthan 29 Kisangarh Udaipur 6 laning 67 NHDP V 11 Orissa 27 Chandikol Bhubaneshwar 6 laning 198 NHDP V 28 Andhra Pradesh 30 Vijay Wada Rajamundri 6 laning 192 NHDP V 30 U.P. 30 Varanasi Aurangabad 6 laning 184 NHDP V 24 Andhra Pradesh 30 Nellore Chilkaluripet 6 laning 148 NHDP V 17 Tamil Nadu 30 Krishnagiri Walahajpet 6 laning 80 NHDP V 7 Karnataka 30 Belgaum Dharwad 6 laning 45 NHDP V 5 Madhya Pradesh 30 Indore Dewas Total Robust Growth of the Indian Infrastructure in the near term basis Outlook of Infrastructure sector:- With a sweet & wash out victory of the UPA alliance in the recent government election, the importance towards the promised reforms & huge focus towards the development of the India Infrastructure in the near term comes back in limelight of the possible growth. The XIth & XIIth Five years plan will bring India s growth story in coming periods, which is focused on the infrastructure and its allied activities. As the focus on the recent XIth & XIIth five year plan would pay a significant role in building India along with ranks of the other world economies in coming periods. The Infrastructure sector in India are expected to draws funds of about US$ 345bn during the XIth Five year plan, which offers huge investment opportunities. The strategy for the 11 th Plan entails strengthening and consolidating the infrastructure-related initiatives, such as Bharat Nirman for building rural infrastructure, 16

17 Project Name Location Length (KM) I N V E N T U R E. sectoral initiatives, such as the RGGVY, APDRP, Accelerated Irrigation Benefit Programme (AIBP), NHDP, National Maritime Development Programme (NMDP) and the JNNURM. The strategy for the Eleventh Plan also encourages private sector participation directly as well as through various forms of PPP s where desirable and feasible. The share of the private sector in infrastructure investment will have to rise substantially from about 20% anticipated in the Tenth Plan to around 30% in the Eleventh Plan. Concession Period Project Cost (Rs Crs ) Concession Ends NKT Maharashtra December -16 Pune - Nashik Maharashtra September -21 Pune - Solapur Maharashtra March -19 Thane - Ghodbunder Maharashtra December -20 Kharpada Bridge Maharashtra August -15 MPEW & NH 4 Maharashtra & August -15 Thane - Bhiwandi Maharashtra May -17 Kaman - Paygaon Maharashtra December -13 Bharauch - Surat Gujarat January -22 Mohol Kurul - Mandrup Maharashtra May -18 Surat Dahisar Gujarat January -21 IRDP Kolhapur City Maharashtra September -30 Goa/ Karnataka Goa NA Talegoan Amravati Maharashtra NA Jaipur - Deoli Rajasthan ,500.0 NA Amritsar Pathankot Punjab ,200.0 NA Top Most Player among its peers & with long & biggest projects in the road development Best Player among its peers in the road developers business:- IRB Infra is one the earlier entrants in the Public Private Partnership programme by signing a concession agreement for the Thane - Bhiwandi bypass Phase I project in This ideally position company for any investment, which is targeted primarily towards the road development in India. 17

18 Source NHAI, IGSL Research I N V E N T U R E. The Company with the focused bidder in the road sector alone was able to make its presence in the NHDP contractor and is now the largest players in the segment in terms of kilometers under contract. The company is not at all in the bidding process of the annuity based projects and is a pure toll based player wherein the Projects per company upside to returns resides with the company. Company Number of Projects Length (km) Annuity BOT IRB Infra LNT NA NA GMT Gammon Infra Nagarjuna Const IVRCL Infra HCC Patel Eng In-house Construction Strength:- The EPC activities for IRB developers funded construction projects as well as for BOT projects are all completed within the IRB Group. Similarly, operation and maintenance activities (O&M) related to its BOT projects, including toll collection, are also executed within the IRB Group. Strong in house builds O&M, which help company to maintain its margin in forthcoming period IRB has a strong in-house construction arm, which takes care of the complete activities starting from Engineering, procurement & construction. IRB has 20 years of experience in Toll Business, which includes the agency toll collections & approx. 13 years of experience since the time the first BOT project (Thane - Bhiwandi) was awarded to the company. The company has strong locational advantage in serving the fast growing and strong economic centers of India viz, Maharashtra & Gujarat. IRB owns a large fleet of sophisticated construction equipment and this enables it to be less dependent on third parties and to efficiently manage its equipment assets. This form of backward integration provides IRB with a competitive advantage over other infrastructure development and construction companies that generally need to outsource portions of their operations to external contractors. 18

19 19 I N V E N T U R E.

20 Order Book Position (As on June 2009) 51% 4% Moving Towards the PAN INDIA presence:- As IRB Infra was presently handling the projects only based on the selected states i.e. Gujarat & Maharashtra has now moved towards the other region bagging nearly 4 new projects which makes the total of 16 BOT projects for the company. The projects belong to the states like Punjab, Rajasthan & Karnataka etc. We consider this as a positive development for the company for developing long term capabilities for executing projects in various states of the country. Order book Composition Rs in Crs BOT Projects in O&M Phase 2,567 Funded Projects % Funded Project BOT Projects In O&M Phase EPC in ongoing BOT Projects EPC in ongoing Projects 2,866 Total 5,660 Source Company 20

21 Name of the Client RFP Stage RFQ Stage NHAI Projects Phase III NHAI Projects Phase V NHAI Projects on OMT Basis GSRDC Projects Gov. Of Rajasthan Projects Maharashtra PWD Projects Total 10, , Source Company Upcoming opportunities for IRB Infra IRB Surat Dahisar Tollway Pvt. Ltd. Six laning of the existing four-lane Surat - Dahisar section of NH 8 for a total length of 240 kms. The project involves the construction of 25 flyovers over various junctions. IRB Kolhapur IRDP Ltd. Maharashtra State Road Development Corporation (MSRDC) awarded the maintenance & operating contract to IRB to develop & maintain all major roads in Kolhapur city Healthy Order backlog involving large projects like Surat- Dahisar & Kolhapur City IRB has a strong order book of Rs 5700Crs. This include 3300Crs of order from the EPC segment which has to be executed over the next 3years & order worth Rs 2400Crs from O&M with an execution period of 10-12years. Surat - Dahisar: - Surat-Dahisar project involves the six laning of the existing four-lane Surat - Dahisar section of NH 8 for a total length of 240 kms. IRB has entered into an agreement with Deutsche Bank as a financial partner, which has an equity stake of 10% in this project. The total cost of this project is estimated at Rs. 23bn (revised construction cost), which would be funded through a mix of internal accruals & borrowings (70:30 Debt-Equity). The original construction cost was Rs. 28.4bn, which has been revised downwards due to decrease in the prices of bitumen & steel. The concession period is for 12 years including the construction period of 30 months (from Feb 2009). The project involves the construction of 25 flyovers over various junctions. However, the company would have to pay the effective share of 38% to NHAI of the toll revenue for the initial year of the concession period with an increase of 1% revenue share in each succeeding year during the course of the concession period. The toll collections have already started from February 2009 onwards. Kolhapur City :- In March 2008, the Maharashtra State Road Development Corporation (MSRDC) awarded the maintenance & operating contract to IRB to develop & maintain all major roads in Kolhapur city. It is for the first time in the history of India s road sector that a single operator has been appointed such project. The project will cover the up gradation of all major roads in Kolhapur into four-lane with all related infrastructure like footpaths. The total length of the road under up gradation is 49.5 km. After up gradation, IRB would own & operate these roads for 30 years. The total cost of the up gradation project is estimated at Rs 4bn (including negative 21

22 grant of Rs. 0.27bn to MSRDC), which is expected to be financed through a mix of debt (70%) & equity (30%). O&M cost over 30 years is around Rs. 650Crs. MSRDSC s traffic data shows that around 45,000 vehicles enter and exit city through nine entry/exit points in a single day. The company expects to recover its investments through toll collection rights at the peripheral entry points of the city s municipal limits (9 entry points). In addition to the concession period, IRB has been allotted commercial plot admeasuring 30,000 square meters by the municipal corporation. The lease period for this land is 99 years. Thus, this is the only BOT project wherein the company has got land development right. The construction activity has commenced from January 2009 & will take years to be completed. Recently Awarded Projects OF IRB Infra Four-laning of the 65-km long National Highway- 4a Goa- Karnataka border starting from Panjim Four-lane a 102-km stretch of the Pathankot- Amritsar section of National Highway-15, on a BOT basis Jaipur to Deoli section of NH12 (a 146 km stretch) in Rajasthan under NHDP Phase III on BOT Basis The strong order book provides visibility to the future revenue and earnings of the company. This fiscal, IRB Infra expects to receive new projects worth Rs bn. This would further strengthen the current order backlog. The break up of the current order book is given below as follows: Other Recently Awarded Projects:- Goa-Karnataka Highway project: Recently, IRB Infra has been awarded the four-laning of the 65-km long National Highway- 4a Goa- Karnataka border starting from Panjim. The contract has been awarded on a 30-year design-build-operate and transfer basis to IRB Infra, which will implement it through a special purpose vehicle. NHAI will be chipping in with Rs 186Crs by way of viability gap funding for this Rs. 800Crs project. The project is expected to be completed by Highway project in Punjab: IRB Infra has emerged as the lowest bidder to four-lane a 102-km stretch of the Pathankot- Amritsar section of National Highway-15, on a BOT basis. The project is on Grant basis with concession period of 20 years and estimated cost of the project is Rs. 1200Crs. The Company has sought a grant of Rs. 126Crs for the project from NHAI. The construction period is 910 days. Highway project in Rajasthan: IRB Infra has emerged as the lowest Bidder for the highway project to be built between Jaipur to Deoli section of NH12 (a 146 km stretch) in Rajasthan under NHDP Phase III on BOT Basis. The project is on Grant basis with concession period of 25 years & estimated cost of the project is Rs. 1500Crs. IRB Infra has sought a grant of Rs. 306Crs for the Project from NHAI. 22

23 Four lanning of Talegaon - Amravati section of NH 6 (167-km stretch) under NHDP Phase III on BOT Basis Highway project in Maharashtra: IRB Infra has emerged as the lowest Bidder for the highway project, which involves four lanning of Talegaon - Amravati section of NH 6 (167-km stretch) under NHDP Phase III on BOT Basis. The project is on Grant basis with concession period of 22 years & estimated cost of the project is Rs 800Crs. IRB Infra has sought a grant of Rs 216Crs for the Project from NHAI. MIDC to build an green field airport at sindhudurg on DBFO basis Venturing into New Segments Airport Construction IRB Infrastructure Developers has bagged an order from the Maharashtra Industrial Development Corporation (MIDC) to build a Greenfield airport at Sindhudurg on design- build- finance- operate basis. The cost of the single-runway airport would be Rs 1500 mn. The company had to remit a premium of Rs 200 mn to the Government for the project. The construction period allowed for the project is 18 months and the concession period is 95 years. MIDC would hand over nearly 650 acres of land of which, 350 acres would go for airport development and the balance would be available to IRB for commercial use. New Investments Strategies in WindMills business to save tax Investment into Wind Energy Business to save tax Modern Road Makers Pvt Ltd (MRM), wholly owned subsidiary of IRB has installed 16 Wind Mills of 1.25MW each in Jaisalmer, Rajasthan and in aggregate, these wind turbines have capacity to generate 20MW which is sold to Jodhpur Vidyut Vitran Nigam Ltd. These windmills will enable MRM to take Benefit of accelerated depreciation which will result in savings on Corporate Tax. MRM has started process to register the windmill project with United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change for Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under Kyoto Protocol. Maintain its operating margins by importing bitumen, furnance oil releated other products Backward Integration to boost operating margins going haead As a part of integration process, IRB through its subsidiary MRM Pvt Ltd has also ventured into importing Bitumen, Furnace Oil & Other petroleum products for self consumption & sale to third party. This has helped to tide over the challenges in raw material management and boost the company Operating Margins going forward. 23

24 Risk & Concerns Equity Dilution: - As far as the IRB Infra is concerned, the company might have to dilute its equity for funding its awarded projects or to be awarded project by the way of equity dilution/ right issue/ preference issue. Risk & Concern involve for the future growth of IRB Infra Slowdown in the Economic growth: - There is a significant risk in the traffic growth due to the slowdown of the economy. Also the ability to raise the toll revenue beyond detrain point because of the government intervention. Price Escalation: - Any price escalation in the cost of and/or scarcity in availability of key equipments, material cost may affect the IBRD performance. Projects Delays: - Delays in completion of the current contracts or complying with contract schedules could have a material adverse effect on IRB s cash flow position, revenues and earnings. IRB s revenues are derived primarily from contracts awarded on a project-by-project basis. It is very difficult to predict whether & when a new project would be awarded due to lengthy & complex bidding & selection processes. This could result in substantial fluctuations in IRB s operations and cash flows materially from period to period depending on the timing of contract awards. Interest Rate Risk: - The interest rate of most of the projects under the execution are linked to the benchmark rates & reset at Periodic interval. Poor Traffic Growth: - Traffic is one of the basic parameters affecting the viability of road projects. The ongoing economic slowdown and a rise in fuel price could adversely affect traffic growth. Toll rates and development of an alternative route also affect traffic. As per the concession agreement, an alternate route can only be developed under certain circumstances such as when the existing road traffic has achieved its designated capacity. Regulatory Risk: - The government and regulatory authorities are involved in IRB s all infrastructure projects. Timely acquisition of land by the authorities and various approvals is crucial for the timely completion of the project. The company s success depends on support from the authorities and the government; and resolving any issues regarding regulatory changes. 24

25 Earnings Outlook & Financial Details EBITDA margins to remain constant. The company is focusing on the new projects under the NHDP programme which provides them to maintain its EBITDA margin going ahead by ~45%. Also main raw materials (Bitumen) is been required more for upcoming projects so the company entering in fixed price contract therapy for the raw material consumption, which would help in maintaining its EBITDA margins going forward % FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010E FY 2011E EBITDA Margins EBIT Margins PAT Margins Source IGSL Research Revenue growth trends give a glimpse of IRB Infra Future growth.. We expect the Company to grow its top-line by CAGR of 72% from Crs during FY 09 to Crs by FY11E. Strong sales grow on account of robust order book which stood at 5700Crs as on June Rs (Crs) Sales Trend FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10E FY 11E Source IGSL Research ROE &ROCE showing a mixed trend ROE for FY10 & FY11 is expected to be 18.74% & 22.11%, an improvement of 10.17% during the FY 09. ROCE is expected to increase in line with ROE from 15.37% to 17.50% during FY10 & FY11 compared to 8.21% during the FY FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010E FY 2011E ROCE (%) ROE (%) Source IGSL Research 25

26 Mumbai Pune Expressway & NH4 Agreement Period Concession Period 15yrs Total Cost Total Debt Total Equity 105 Internal Accruals 15 Payable to MSRDC 918 Construction Cost Operation & Maintenance Growth in toll Charges every 3 year 18% Growth in Traffic 6% Net Present value NPV/Shares Pune Solapur BOT Project Agreement Period Concession Period 16yrs Total Cost 63 Total Debt 45 Total Equity 18 Growth in toll Charges 5% Growth in Traffic 6% Net Present value NPV/Shares 3.07 Surat Dhaisar BOT Project Agreement Period Concession Period 12yrs Total Cost 2835 Total Debt 1956 Total Equity 879 Growth in toll Charges 5% Growth in Traffic 6% Net Present value 2063 NPV/Shares Pune Nashik BOT Project Agreement Period Concession Period 18yrs Total Cost 73.7 Total Debt 72.7 Total Equity 1 Growth in toll Charges 5% Growth in Traffic 6% Net Present value NPV/Shares 4.44 Surat Barauch BOT Project Agreement Period Concession Period 15yrs Total Cost 1409 Upfront Fee 504 Total Debt 1211 Total Equity 198 Growth in toll Charges 5% Growth in Traffic 6% Net Present value NPV/Shares Source IGSL Research Thane Bhiwandi Bypass Agreement Period Concession Period 18yrs Total Cost 104 Total Debt 70 Total Equity 34 Growth in toll Charges 6% Growth in Traffic 5% Net Present value NPV/Shares