Our challenges relating to growth markets

Transcription

1 Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty Our challenges relating to growth markets Paul O Neill, Global Energy Head Willis Latin American Energy Conference October 2012

2 Contents 1 Introduction 2 Energy Challenges 3 Growth Markets: A heterogeneous approach 4 Latin American Landscape 5 Risk Profile Variables 6 Why Quality Matters 7 Addressing the Challenges 2

3 Introduction Paul O Neill, Global Head of Energy Contact Allianz House 60 Gracechurch Street London, EC3V 0HR Direct: +44 (0) Mobile: +44 (0) paul.oneill@allianz.com 3

4 Energy Challenges Sustainable investment returns Long term supply issues Growing demand Protecting existing assets Significant technological advances Energy infrastructure Challenges = Opportunities in an increasing risk environment 4

5 Growth Markets Our geographical view on growth markets globally CEE & Russia North America Asia Latin America Africa x Countries in Current Focus Identified Regional Initiatives Global expertise and network to provide local solutions 5

6 Growth Markets Importance of differentiating individual growth markets A local perspective Changing trade routes Southern Silk Road A pack of countries vs. heterogeneous entities Often treated as homogenous group with similar characteristics and direction Post Q2 2011, marked delta in stock market returns Unique challenges Importance of a country-specific approach Individual risk management considerations Local investment in expertise and infrastructure Growth market team and local underwriting expertise to provide further understanding 6

7 South America Oil & Gas Summary A variable landscape of medium to long-term resource potential Mexico - Government influence in PEMEX in terms of approvals and tax - This burden will continue until further restrictions are lifted to enable increased IOC investment Colombia - Vast regions yet to be explored - Government open to external investment - Ambitious plans to double production - Significant opportunities for IOCs Ecuador - Limited future CAPEX investment allocation may harm production - New service contracts open investment possibilities Bolivia - Long-term investment concerns - Uncertainties about government policy Venezuela - Significant oil & gas reserve potential - Lack of financial resources to develop Faja oil reserves - Political threats - Insufficient refining capacity Argentina - Nationalization concerns - Country has very large shale gas & oil resources - Investment constraints Brazil - Enormous oil & gas potential - Offshore deepwater pre salt discoveries - Future sale of blocks may enhance resource potential - High production costs and technical drilling challenges 7

8 Investment Benchmarking Overall country rankings for Central and South America Country Upstream Fiscal Attractiveness Oil Sector Performance Economic Performance Socio- Political Performance Total Score Rank Brazil Argentina Colombia Peru Ecuador Suriname Venezuela Cuba Trinidad &Tobago Guatemala Source: GlobalData.com (Report extracted October 2012; data June 2012) 8

9 Infrastructure Investment As an asset class, Infrastructure is typically divided between economic and social types of investment Economic Infrastructure Social Infrastructure Transport Energy & Utilities Communications Social Airports Bridges Parking systems Ports Rail Toll roads Tunnels Gas networks Storage facilities Electricity networks Power generation Renewable energy Cellular towers Transmission networks Cable networks Satellites Healthcare facilities Correctional facilities Stadia Waste facilities Housing and subsidized housing Water and sewage 9

10 Energy Projects Investment with private participation: Infrastructure $25,000 $20,000 Argentina Brazil Chile Ecuador Mexico Uruguay Venezuela, RB $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $ USD 000,000's Year (Source: 2012 World Bank, Private Participation in Infrastructure Project Database ( New Risk Opportunities Public and Private investments in Infrastructure 10

11 Variables that Impact the Risk Profile Operating Costs, Time Constraints & Human Capital Insurable Risk Technological Innovation Political Pressures Social & Environmental Concerns Evaluating the future risk landscape of the region 11

12 Variables that Impact the Risk Profile Operating Costs, Human Capital and Time Constraints 1 2 Project Delays and Construction Quality License retention concerns Yard access Human resource availability pressures 20% Æ Petrobras planned growth in personnel from current to 2015* Human Capital Training requirements Academic patronage and investment in training academies 3 Operating Costs Longer drilling periods resulting in higher production costs Reliance on technological advancement Insurance industry can support risk mitigation and ensure best practice standards * Source: Article in Figures quoted 61,000 (currently ) to 74,000 employees (2015) 12

13 Variables that impact the risk profile Technological Opportunities and Local Content Insurable Risk and Technological Innovation Inherent risk Unconventional deepwater challenges Innovative technological advances Volume of construction orders Strict Local Content Regulation High level of local content required in new offshore drilling rigs and production facilities Non-physical build milestones Local content increasingly applied to all aspects of E&P Investment Bottlenecks Self-insurance: Brazil: Provisional Measure No 564/2012: USD 11bn fund potential flexibility of application Lack of new exploration opportunities M&A the way forward? Production quota targets Multinational partnerships forged to balance expertise and regulation requirements $66mn Cost of building a mid-range tanker in Brazil 2x cost in China* * Source: Credit Suisse, as featured in FT, September 2012 Delays in finalizing the future pipeline of exploration blocks 11 th round of licensing likely in May

14 Why Quality Matters Differentiation Value Added Ł Ł Ł Ł Ł Ł Global network and processes Fundamentals of our risk-based approach Business continuity considerations Expertise in Risk Management Professional Underwriting, Claims and Engineering Continuing professional development Investment in resources to create value 14

15 Addressing the Challenges Sustainable Investment Returns Cash flow protection Maintain investor confidence Risk Management optimization Asset Protection Risk transfer Insurance options Energy Infrastructure Protecting project finance Differentiated approach Significant Technological Advances Application of Engineering expertise Flow of information 15

16 Conclusion Increasing opportunities in an increasing risk environment Significant exposures with new technological advances Importance of efficient and stable risk transfer Emphasis on quality when seeking a long-term insurance partner Providing quality risk transfer to assist in realizing the region s enormous resource potential 16

17 Contact Paul O Neill Allianz House 60 Gracechurch Street London, EC3V 0HR Direct: +44 (0) Mobile: +44 (0) paul.oneill@allianz.com 17