Financial Statement Analysis

Transcription

1 Financial Statement Analysis Lakehead University September 2003 Overview of the Lecture 2.1 Financial Statements 2.2 Ratio Analysis 2.4 Common-Size Analysis 2.3 Changing Prices 2.5 International Considerations 2

2 2.1 Financial Statements Public companies must produce 4 financial statements: The Income Statement The Balance Sheet The Statement of Retained Earnings The Statement of Cash Flows Financial Statements: The Income Statement The income statement describes the firm s operating results over a specific period of time, usually a year. Revenue and costs are recognized at the time of the sale, which is not necessarily when cash changes hands. Revenue and expense recognition are governed by the matching principle, which states that operating performance can be measured only if related revenues and expenses are accounted for during the same period. 4

3 Unibroue, Inc. Dec. 31, 2002 and Dec. 31, 2001, Income Statements ($000) Sales 23,622 21,580 Cost of goods sold 11,824 11,540 Gross profit 11,798 10,040 Selling, gen. and admin. expenses (SGA) 7,669 6,543 Amortization 2,073 1,833 Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) 2,056 1,664 Interest expense Foreign exchange gain (14) (14) Pretax income (EBT) 1, Taxes Net income Number of shares outstanding (weighted average) 6,111,875 6,235,451 Earnings per share $0.16 $0.10 Stock price (December) $2.43 $ Financial Statements: The Income Statement Accounting income differs from cash flow because it involves non-cash items. For Unibroue, amortization and foreign exchange gain are non-cash items. Note that the amount of taxes that appear on the income is rarely paid in full. Some of it is usually deferred. 6

4 2.1 Financial Statements: The Balance Sheet The balance sheet is a snapshot of the firm. It summarizes what the firm owns (assets) and what it owes (liabilities). Assets minus liabilities belongs to owners. It is defined as shareholders equity, or net worth. Assets Liabilities = Shareholders Equity Financial Statements: The Balance Sheet Assets appear on the left-hand side of the balance sheet, and can be of two types: Current Assets: Assets that have a life of less than one year. Cash, inventory and accounts receivable are examples of current assets. Fixed Assets: Assets that have a relatively long life. These can be tangible (building) or intangible (patent). 8

5 2.1 Financial Statements: The Balance Sheet Liabilities appear on the right-hand side of the balance sheet, and can also be of two types: Current Liabilities: Liabilities that mature in less than one year. Bank borrowings and accounts payable are examples of current liabilities. Long-Term Liabilities: Liabilities that mature in more than one year. Long-term debt and employee future benefits are examples of long-term liabilities Financial Statements: The Balance Sheet Liquidity refers to the ease with which an asset can be converted to cash. Bank accounts, T-bills and similar assets are relatively liquid. Inventory is less liquid: There is no guarantee the merchandise will be sold. Fixed assets are relatively illiquid. Assets on the balance sheet are listed from the most liquid to the least liquid. 10

6 Unibroue, Inc. Dec. 31, 2002, and Dec. 31, 2001, Balance Sheets ($000) Assets Cash 2,300 1,714 Short-term investments Accounts receivable 3,891 4,435 Income taxes receivable Inventories 4,128 3,417 Prepaid expenses Total current assets 10,903 10,600 Net fixed assets 23,085 22,426 Total assets 33,988 33,086 Liabilities and Stockholders Equity Accounts payables and accrued liabilities 3,199 2,257 Instalments on long-term debt Total current liabilities 4,136 3,209 Long-term debt 5,125 5,992 Future income taxes 2,573 2,248 Total liabilities 11,835 11,449 Capital stock 8,670 9,414 Contributed surplus Retained earnings 12,506 11,545 Total equity 22,154 21,637 Total liabilities and equity 33,988 33, Financial Statements: The Balance Sheet Net Working Capital (NWC) is the difference between current assets and current liabilities. In the case of Unibroue, we have NWC 02 = 10,903 4,136 = 6,767 NWC 01 = 10,560 3,209 = 7,351 A positive NWC means that the cash expected to be available over the next 12 months exceeds what will have to be paid over that period. 12

7 2.1 Financial Statements: The Balance Sheet Market Value vs Book Value Under the Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, financial statements show assets at historical cost. Assets are carried in the books at their purchase price, as this is an objective, easily verifiable measure. Market and book values may be close in the case of current assets due to their short life. In the case of fixed assets and equity, there may be substantial differences between market and book values Ratio Analysis How to compare financial statements from different companies? Calculating ratios is a good way to do so. A ratio standardizes an item on a statement, i.e. it makes it comparable to the same item on a different statement. Ratios put absolute numbers in perspective. 14

8 3.2 Ratio Analysis A ratio is a numerator divided by a denominator. The units of a ratio can be of three types: 1. A percent (35% of sales, for example); 2. A times (1.5 times earnings, for example); 3. A number of days (67 days, for example) Ratio Analysis What can we do with ratios? Cross-Sectional Analysis: Analyze different companies in a given year. Times-Series Analysis: Analyze the same company over different years. Combined Analysis: Do both. 16

9 3.2 Ratio Analysis The ratios of a company should be compared to those of its nearest competitors or to the average ratios of firms in the same industry. There are different categories of ratios, some ratios are more important than others depending on the industry a firm operates in Ratio Analysis What is important to know about a ratio is 1. How it is computed. 2. What it is intended to measure. 3. What does a high or low value mean. 4. What are the drawbacks of this measure. 18

10 3.2 Ratio Analysis Financial ratios are grouped in many categories: 1. Short-term solvency, or liquidity, ratios 2. Long-term solvency, or financial leverage, ratios 3. Asset management, or turnover, ratios (activity) 4. Profitability ratios 5. Market value ratios Ratio Analysis: Liquidity Ratios Computation: Most often used are item/current liabilities, but there are other types of liquidity ratios. Intention: These ratios measure the firm s ability to meet its short-term obligations. High/Low: A high value indicates that short-term liquidity is not a problem. A value too high may indicate that management is too conservative. Problems: These measures are not perfect, as we will see shortly. 20

11 3.2 Ratio Analysis: Liquidity Ratios Current Ratio Current ratio = Unibroue s current ratio was Current assets Current liabilities 10,903 4,136 = 2.64 in ,600 3,209 = 3.30 in Ratio Analysis: Liquidity Ratios Current Ratio A current ratio above 2 is often considered a good sign, but this depends on the industry the firm operates in. One problem with the current ratio is that it considers assets that may never convert to cash, such as inventories. The quick, or acid-test ratio is a solution to this problem. 22

12 3.2 Ratio Analysis: Liquidity Ratios Quick, or Acid-Test Ratio Quick Ratio = Unibroue s quick ratio was Current Assets Inventories Current liabilities 10,903 4,128 4,136 = 1.64 in ,600 3,417 3,209 = 2.24 in Ratio Analysis: Liquidity Ratios Quick, or Acid-Test Ratio One must compare a firm s acid-test ratio with those of its competitors. Like the current ratio, the acid-test ratio also considers assets that are not 100% liquid. The cash ratio is a solution to this problem. 24

13 3.2 Ratio Analysis: Liquidity Ratios Cash Ratio Cash ratio = Cash (and Marketable Securities) Current liabilities Unibroue s cash ratio was 2,300 4,136 2,114 3,209 = 0.56 in 2002 = 0.66 in Ratio Analysis: Liquidity Ratios Cash Ratio One must compare a firm s cash ratio with those of its competitors. The cash ratio is a very conservative measure of liquidity. Other liquidity ratios: NWC to total assets = Interval measure = NWC Total assets Current assets Average daily operating costs, where Average daily operating costs = (COGS + SGA)/

14 3.2 Ratio Analysis: Leverage Ratios Computation: Depends on the ratio. Intention: These ratios measure the firm s ability to meet its long-term obligations, i.e. its financial leverage. High/Low: A high value for debt ratio increases the probability of financial distress. A too low value may indicate that management does not sufficiently take advantage of leverage. Problems: These measures are not perfect, as we will see shortly Ratio Analysis: Leverage Ratios Debt-Equity Ratio The debt-equity ratio, often identified by D/E, is computed as follows: Long-Term Debt D/E = Shareholders Equity For Unibroue, we have D/E = 5, ,154 = 0.27 in , ,636 = 0.32 in

15 3.2 Ratio Analysis: Leverage Ratios Debt-Equity Ratio The current portion of long-term debt has to be taken into account. Preferred shareholders equity can be part of the numerator or the denominator, depending on who computes the ratio: If the ratio is computed for bondholders, preferred equity can be considered as shareholders equity. If the ratio is computed for common shareholders, then preferred equity can be considered as long-term debt Ratio Analysis: Leverage Ratios Total Debt Ratio Total debt ratio = Unibroue s total debt ratio was Total assets Total equity Total assets 33,988 22,154 33,988 = 0.35 in ,086 21,637 33,086 = 0.35 in

16 3.2 Ratio Analysis: Leverage Ratios Equity Multiplier Equity Multiplier = Total assets Total equity Ratio Analysis: Leverage Ratios Long-Term Debt Ratio Investors might be more interested in long-term debt, since short-term liabilities (accounts payable and bank borrowings, for instance) are constantly changing. The long-term debt ratio ignores short-term liabilities: Long-term debt ratio = Long-term debt Long-term debt + Total equity 32

17 3.2 Ratio Analysis: Leverage Ratios Times Interest Earned Cash Coverage Times interest earned ratio = EBIT Interest Cash coverage ratio = EBIT + Depreciation Interest Ratio Analysis: Activity Ratios Computation: Usually related to total sales and/or total assets. Intention: These ratios measure how efficiently a firm utilizes its assets to generate sales. High/Low: A high turnover ratio is usually a sign of efficiency. Problems: Each measure looks at a specific item, need more than one measure to make a decision. 34

18 3.2 Ratio Analysis: Activity Ratios Inventory Turnover Inventory turnover = COGS Inventory Average Age of Inventory Average Age of Inventory = 365 Inventory Turnover Ratio Analysis: Activity Ratios Inventory Turnover Note that the average age of inventory is treated as a liquidity ratio in the textbook, as it gives an idea of how fast inventories convert to cash within a year. 36

19 3.2 Ratio Analysis: Activity Ratios Inventory Turnover What value should we use for inventory? COGS comes from the income statement, which is a statement showing what happened during the year. Inventory is a figure on the balance sheet, i.e. the value of an asset at a certain point in time. This value, however, varies during the year Ratio Analysis: Activity Ratios Inventory Turnover It makes more sense to calculate the inventory turnover by dividing COGS on the income statement of year 2002, say, by the average value of inventories between December 2001 and December For Unibroue, the inventory turnover in 2002 was 11,824 4,128 = 2.86 using Dec. 31, 2002, inventories 11,824 (4,128+3,417)/2 = 3.13 using average inventories for

20 3.2 Ratio Analysis: Activity Ratios Inventory Turnover Unibroue s average age of inventory was, in 2002, = 127 days using Dec. 31, 2002, inventories = 116 days using average inventories for 2002 A high inventory turnover ratio (i.e. small average age of inventory) is a sign of efficiency Ratio Analysis: Activity Ratios Receivables Turnover Receivables turnover = Average Collection Period Sales Accounts receivable Days Sales in Receivables = 365 Receivables Turnover As for the average age of inventory, average collection period can be considered a liquidity ratio. 40

21 3.2 Ratio Analysis: Activity Ratios Receivables Turnover As with inventories, we can use either the value for accounts receivable that appears on the balance sheet or the average value of accounts receivable during the year. Unibroue s receivables turnover in 2002 was 23,622 3,891 = 6.07 using Dec. 31, 2002, A/R 23,622 (3,891+4,435)/2 = 5.67 using average A/R for Ratio Analysis: Activity Ratios Receivables Turnover Unibroue s average collection period was, in 2002, = 60 days using Dec. 31, 2002, A/R = 64 days using average A/R for 2002 A high receivables turnover ratio (i.e. small average collection period) is a sign that the firm has no difficulty collecting cash. 42

22 3.2 Ratio Analysis: Activity Ratios Payable Turnover Payables turnover = COGS Accounts payable Average Payment Period Average Payment period = 365 Payables Turnover Ratio Analysis: Activity Ratios Payable Turnover Again, we can use either the value for accounts payable that appears on the balance sheet or the average value of accounts payable during the year. Unibroue s payables turnover in 2002 was 11,824 3,199 = 3.70 using Dec. 31, 2002 A/P 11,824 (3,199+2,257)/2 = 4.33 using average A/P for

23 3.2 Ratio Analysis: Activity Ratios Payable Turnover Unibroue s average payment period was, in 2002, = 99 days using Dec. 31, 2002, A/P = 85 days using average A/P for 2002 A low payables turnover ratio (i.e. large average payment period) is a sign that the firm gets favourable credit from its suppliers Ratio Analysis: Activity Ratios Note that a long average payment period is not necessarily a good sign since suppliers may be willing to tighten their credit policies in the future. 46

24 3.2 Ratio Analysis: Activity Ratios Other Activity Ratios NWC turnover = Sales/NWC Fixed asset turnover = Sales/Net fixed assets Total asset turnover = Sales/Total assets Ratio Analysis: Profitability Ratios Computation: Usually Net income/item. Intention: These ratios measure how efficiently assets are used to generate bottom line, net income. High/Low: A high profitability ratio is usually a good sign. Problems: Each measure looks at a specific item, cannot rely on only one measure. 48

25 3.2 Ratio Analysis: Profitability Ratios Profit Margin Profit Margin = Net Income/Sales Unibroue s profit margin was , ,580 = 4.07% in 2002 = 2.82% in Ratio Analysis: Profitability Ratios Gross Profit Margin Gross Profit Margin = Gross Income/Sales Unibroue s gross profit margin was 11,798 23,622 11,540 21,580 = 49.9% in 2002 = 46.5% in

26 3.2 Ratio Analysis: Profitability Ratios Operating Profit Margin Operating Profit Margin = EBIT/Sales Unibroue s operating profit margin was 2,056 23,622 1,664 21,580 = 8.7% in 2002 = 7.7% in Ratio Analysis: Profitability Ratios Return on Assets (ROA) ROA = Net Income/Total Assets Unibroue s return on assets was , ,086 = 2.83% in 2002 = 1.84% in

27 3.2 Ratio Analysis: Profitability Ratios Return on Equity (ROE) ROE = Net Income/Total Equity Unibroue s return on equity was , ,637 = 4.34% in 2002 = 2.81% in Ratio Analysis: Market Value Ratios Computation: Usually stock price/item or earnings/item. Intention: These ratios measure how shareholders value different items pertaining to the firm. High/Low: A high ratio may or may not be a good sign. Problems: Again, need more than one measure. 54

28 3.2 Ratio Analysis: Market Value Ratios Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio P/E ratio = Stock price/earnings per share This ratio usuall involves expected future earnings. Nevertheless, we could say that Unibroue s P/E ratio was = in 2002 = in Ratio Analysis: Market Value Ratios A stock may be considered cheap when its P/E ratio is below 15. Rule of 19: Over the past 40 years, the average P/E ratio in the U.S. has been 19 minus the inflation rate. Hence, if the inflation rate is 3%, the right P/E ratio is 19 3 =

29 3.2 Ratio Analysis: Market Value Ratios Market-to-Book Ratio (ME/BE) ME/BE ratio = Stock price/book equity per share, where book equity per share means total equity, as it appears on the balance sheet, divided by the number of shares outstanding. For Unibroue, this ratio was ,154/6, ,637/6,235 = 0.67 on Dec. 31, 2002, = 0.58 on Dec. 31, Ratio Analysis: Market Value Ratios Market-to-Book Ratio (ME/BE) Since the book value of assets is usually below its market value, a stock with a market-to-book ratio below one may be considered a good buy. On the other hand, a market-to-book ratio below one is the sign that management has not been very successful at creating value and thus might not be able to create value in the future either. 58

30 3.2 Ratio Analysis: Market Value Ratios Dividend Payout Ratio Dividend Payout Ratio = Common Share Dividend Earnings Available to Common Shareholders Ratio Analysis: Market Value Ratios Tobin s q Ratio Tobin s q = Market Value of Debt and Equity Replacement Cost of Assets 60

31 3.2 Ratio Analysis: The Dupont System ROE = = = Net income Total equity Net income Total equity Sales Total assets Sales Total assets Net income Sales Sales Total assets Total assets Total equity = Profit margin Total asset turnover }{{} ROA Equity Multiplier Ratio Analysis: The Dupont System For Unibroue in 2002, we have ROE = 4.34% = NI Sales Sales TA TA TE = ,622 23,622 33,988 33,988 22, 154 = 4.07%

32 Ratio Sleeman Unibroue Profitability ratios (%) Gross Profit margin Operating Profit margin Net Profit margin Return on assets Return on equity Financial leverage ratios Total debt ratio Debt/equity ratio Long-term debt ratio Times interest earned Unibroue, Inc and 2001 Income Statements (in thousands of $) Sales 23,622 21,580 Cost of goods sold 11,824 11,540 Selling and administrative expenses (SGA) 7,669 6,543 Amortization 2,073 1,833 Earnings before interest and taxes 2,056 1,664 Interest expense Foreign exchange gain (14) (14) Pretax income 1, Taxes Net income Number of shares outstanding 6,111,875 6,235,451 Earnings per share $0.16 $0.10 Stock price (December) $2.43 $

33 Ratio Sleeman Unibroue Liquidity ratios Current ratio Acid-test ratio Market value ratios P/E ratio Market-to-book ratio Asset management ratios Average age of inventory (days) Average collection period (days) Average payment period (days) Total asset turnover The Case of Unibroue Unibroue s long-term debt level is low compared to Sleeman and brewers in general. Long-term debt ratios in this industry are usually around 40-50%. Unibroue s profits margin is also low compared to other brewers: Anheuser-Busch: 13.2% in 2001 Coors: 5.1% in Return on equity: Anheuser-Busch: 41.6% in 2001 Coors: 13.1% in

34 U.S. Number for Brewers in 2002 Ratio Industry Average ROE 53.3% ROA 11.2% Oper Profit Margin 18.9% Net Profit Margin 12.1% Interest Coverage 7.9 times 67 Some U.S. Distillers and Wine Makers in 2001 Ratio Brown-Forman Constellation Brands ROE 18.3% 17.6% ROA 11.5% 4.9% Net Profit Margin 11.6% 4.9% 68

35 Common-Size Analysis Rewriting financial statements in their common-size format means: Dividing all items on the income statement by sales; Dividing all items on the balance sheet by total assets. 69 Common-Size Analysis Common-size analysis helps understand how the firm evolves over time and allows quick comparisons between financial statements of different firms. 70

36 Unibroue, Inc. Dec. 31, 2002 and Dec. 31, 2001, Common-Size Income Statements (%) Sales Cost of goods sold Gross profit Selling, gen. and admin. expenses (SGA) Amortization Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) Interest expense Foreign exchange gain (0.06) (0.06) Pretax income (EBT) Taxes Net income Unibroue, Inc. Dec. 31, 2002, and Dec. 31, 2001, Common-Size Balance Sheets (%) Assets Cash Short-term investments Accounts receivable Income taxes receivable Inventories Prepaid expenses Total current assets Net fixed assets Total assets Liabilities and Stockholders Equity Accounts payables and accrued liabilities Instalments on long-term debt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Future income taxes Total liabilities Capital stock Contributed surplus Retained earnings Total equity Total liabilities and equity