MBF1223 Financial Management. Lecture 8: Financial Ratios and Firm Performance

Transcription

1 MBF1223 Financial Management Lecture 8: Financial Ratios and Firm Performance

2 Learning Objectives 1. Create, understand, and interpret common-size financial statements. 2. Calculate and interpret financial ratios. 3. Compare different company performances using financial ratios, historical financial ratio trends, and industry ratios. 2

3 1. Financial Statements Just like a doctor takes a look at a patient s x-rays or cat-scan when diagnosing health problems, a manager or analyst can take a look at a firm s primary financial statements i. e. the income statement and the balance sheet, when trying to gauge the status or performance of a firm. Income statement: periodic recording of the sources of revenue and expenses of a firm, Balance sheet: provides a point in time snap shot of the firm s assets, liabilities and owner s equity. 3

4 2. Benchmarking The financial statements constitute fairly complex documents involving a whole bunch of numbers. Absolute values tell us something about the amount of assets, liabilities, equity, revenues, expenses, and taxes of a firm, difficult to really gauge what s going on, primarily because of size and maturity differences among firms. requires benchmarking against some standard. One common method of benchmarking a is to compare a firm s current performance against that of its own performance over a 3-5 year period (trend analysis), by looking at the growth rate in various key items such as sales, costs, and profits. 4

5 2. Benchmarking Table: Cogswell Cola s Abbreviated Income Statements ($ in thousands) 5

6 2. Benchmarking Another useful way to make some sense out of this mess of numbers, is to re-cast the income statement and the balance sheet into common size statements, by expressing each income statement item as a percent of sales and each balance sheet item as a percent of total assets. 6

7 2. Benchmarking Figure 2 7

8 2. Benchmarking Figure 8

9 2. Benchmarking Benchmarking is a good starting point to detect trends (if any) in a firm s performance and to make quick comparisons of key financial statement values with competitors on a relative basis. More in-depth diagnosis requires individual item analyses and comparisons which are best done by conducting ratio analysis. 9

10 3. Financial Ratios Financial ratios are relationships between different accounts from financial statements usually the income statement and the balance sheet that serve as performance indicators Being relative values, financial ratios allow for meaningful comparisons across time, between competitors, and with industry averages. 10

11 3. Financial Ratios 5 key areas of a firm s performance can be analyzed using financial ratios: 1. Liquidity ratios: Can the company meet its obligations over the short term? 2. Solvency ratios: (also known as financial leverage ratios): Can the company meet its obligations over the long term? 3. Asset management ratios: How efficiently is the company managing its assets to generate sales? 4. Profitability ratios: How well has the company performed overall? 5. Market value ratios: How does the market (investors) view the company s financial prospects? Can also conduct a Du Pont analysis which involves a breakdown of the return on equity into its three components, i.e. profit margin, turnover, and leverage. 11

12 4. Short-Term Solvency: Liquidity Ratios Measure a company s ability to cover its short-term debt obligations in a timely manner: 3 key liquidity ratios include: The current ratio, quick ratio, and cash ratio. 12

13 4. Short-Term Solvency: Liquidity Ratios Table: Liquidity Ratios 2011 for Cogswell Cola and Spacely Spritzers Cogswell has better liquidity and short-term solvency than Spacely, but, higher investment in current assets also means that lower yields are being realized since current assets are typically low yielding. So, we need to look at the other areas and inter-related effects of the firm s various accounting items. 13

14 5. Long-Term Solvency: Solvency or Financial Leverage Ratios Measure a company s ability to meet its long-term debt obligations based on its overall debt level and earnings capacity. Failure to meet its interest obligation could put a firm into bankruptcy. Equations 14.4, 14.5, and 14.6 can be used to calculate 3 key financial leverage ratios: the debt ratio, times interest earned ratio, and cash coverage ratio. 14

15 5. Long-Term Solvency: Long-Term Solvency: Solvency or Financial Leverage Ratios 15

16 5. Long-Term Solvency: Long-Term Solvency: Solvency or Financial Leverage Ratios Table: Financial Leverage Ratios 2011 for Cogswell Cola and Spacely Spritzers Cogswell Cola has relatively less debt and a significantly greater ability to cover its interest obligations by using either its EBIT (times interest earned ratio) or its net cash flow (cash coverage ratio) than Spacely Spritzers. Leverage must be analyzed as a combination of debt level and coverage. If a firm is heavily leveraged but has good interest coverage, it is using the interest deductibility feature of taxes to its benefit. Having a high leverage with low coverage could put the firm into a risk of bankruptcy. 16

17 6. Asset Management Ratios Measure how efficiently a firm is using its assets to generate revenues or how much cash is being tied up in other assets such as receivables and inventory. Equations can be used to calculate 5 key asset management ratios. 17

18 6. Asset Management Ratios Table: Asset Management Ratios 2011 for Cogswell Cola and Spacely Spritzers While Cogswell is more efficient at managing its inventory, Spacely seems to be doing a better job of collecting its receivables and utilizing its total assets in generating revenues 18

19 7. Profitability Ratios Profitability ratios such as net profit margin, returns on assets, and return on equity, measure a firm s effectiveness in turning sales or assets into profits. 19

20 7. Profitability Ratios Table: Profitability Ratios 2011 for Cogswell Cola and Spacely Spritzers As far as profitability is concerned, Cogswell is outperforming Spacely by about 3%. 20

21 8. Market Value Ratios Used to gauge how attractive or reasonable a firm s current price is relative to its earnings, growth rate, and book value. 21

22 8. Market Value Ratios Potential investors and analysts often use these ratios as part of their valuation analysis. Typically, if a firm has a high price to earnings and a high market to book value ratio, it is an indication that investors have a good perception about the firm s performance. However, if these ratios are very high it could also mean that a firm is over-valued. With the price/earnings to growth ratio (PEG ratio), the lower it is, the more of a bargain it seems to be trading at, vis-à-vis its growth expectation. 22

23 8. Market Value Ratios Ratio Cogswell Cola Spacely Spritzers P/E PEG P/B The ratios seem to indicate that investors in both firms seem to have good expectations about their performance and are therefore paying fairly high prices relative to their earnings book values. 23

24 9. DuPont analysis Involves breaking down ROE into three components of the firm: 1) operating efficiency, as measured by the profit margin (net income/sales); 2) asset management efficiency, as measured by asset turnover (sales/total assets); and 3) financial leverage, as measured by the equity multiplier (total assets/total equity). Equation below shows that if we multiply a firm s net profit margin by its total asset turnover ratio and its equity multiplier, we will get its return on equity. 24

25 10. DuPont analysis Cogswell has better operational efficiency, i.e. it is better able to move sales dollars into income, but Spritzer is more efficient at utilizing its assets, and since it uses more debt, it is able to get more of its earnings to its shareholders. Although these 14 ratios are not the only ones that can be used to assess a firm s performance, they are the most popular ones. It is important to look at the overall picture of the firm in all 5 areas and accordingly reach conclusions or make recommendations for changes. 25

26 10. External Uses of Financial Statements and Industry Averages Financial statements of publicly traded companies and industry averages of key items provide the raw material for analysts and investors to make investment recommendations and decisions 26

27 11. Cola Wars Table: Key Financial Ratios and Accounts for PepsiCo and Coca-Cola (as of December 31, 2010) 27

28 11. Cola Wars Table: Some Key Ratios for PepsiCo and Coca-Cola (Five-Year Period) 28

29 11. Cola Wars One of the first things we notice in looking over the five years of data is how similar many of the ratios are from year to year, showing remarkable consistency for these two companies. We also can see that the gross margin of Coca-Cola is consistently higher than that of PepsiCo. The debt to equity ratio of both firms is mostly falling over the five-year period. We also can see that ROE has been very good for both companies, although slightly better for PepsiCo. Finally, PepsiCo has very strong and growing earnings per share over this period, outperforming Coca-Cola s EPS, but PepsiCo is also more expensive (higher current price per share). 29

30 12. Industry ratios: Table: Financial Ratios: Industry Averages Industry ratios are often used as benchmarks for financial ratio analysis of individual firms. There can be significant differences in various key areas across industries, which is why comparing company ratios with industry averages can be very useful and more informative. 30

31 Additional Problems with Answers Problem 1 Constructing an Income Statement. Using the income and expense account information for Tri-Mark Products Inc. listed below, construct an income statement for the year ended 31st December, Shares outstanding: 1,575,000 Tax rate: 35% Interest expense: $3,540,000 Revenue: $950,500,000 Depreciation: $50,000,000 Selling, general, and administrative expense: $85,000,000 Other income: $1,350,000 Research and development: $5,200,000 Cost of goods sold: $730,000,000 31

32 Additional Problems with Answers Problem 1 (Answer) Tri-mark Products Incorporated Income Statement for the year ended 31st Dec ('000s) Revenue $ 950,500 Cost of goods sold $ 730,000 Gross Profit $ 220,500 Operating expenses Selling, general and administrative expenses $ 85,000 R&D $ 5,200 Depreciation $ 50,000 Operating Income $ 80,300 Other Income $ 1,350 EBIT $ 81,650 Interest Expense $ 3,540 Taxable Income $ 78,110 Taxes $ 27,339 Net Income $ 50,772 Shares Outstanding $ 16,740 EPS $

33 Additional Problems with Answers Problem 2 Constructing a Balance Sheet. Construct Tri-Mark Incorporated s 2009 year-end Balance Sheet using the asset, liability, and equity accounts listed below: Retained Earnings $60,500,000 Accounts Payable $57,000,000 Accounts Receivable $43,000,000 Common Stock $89,676,000 Cash $6,336,000 Short Term Debt $1,500,000 Inventory $42,000,000 Goodwill $30,000,000 Long Term Debt $74,000,000 Other Non-Current Liabilities $15,000,000 PP&E $225,000,000 Other Non-Current Assets $14,000,000 Long-Term Investments $25,340,000 Other Current Assets $12,000,000 33

34 Additional Problems with Answers Problem 2 (Answer) Tri-mark Products Inc. Balance Sheet as at year ended 31st December 2009 ( 000s) Liabilities: Current Assets Current Liabilities Cash $6,336 Accounts Payable $57,000 Accts. Rec. $43,000 Short Term Debt $1,500 TOTAL Current Liabilities. $58,500 Inventory $42,000 Other Current $12,000 Long Term Debt $74,000 Total Current $103,336 Other Liabilities $15,000 L- T Inv. $25,340 Total Liabilities $147,500 PP&E $225,000 Owner s Equity Goodwill $30,000 Common Stock $189,676 Other Assets $14,000 Total Assets $397,676 Retained Earnings $60,500 Total OE $250,176 Total Liab. And OE $397,676 34

35 Additional Problems with Answers Problem 3 Common size statements: Re-state Tri-Mark Incorporated s 2009 financial statements as common-size statements and comment on them 35

36 Assets: Current Assets Additional Problems with Answers Problem 3 (Answer) Cash $6, Accts. Rec. $43, Inventory $42, Other Current $12, Total Current $103, L- T Inv. $25, PP&E $225, % of Total Assets Liabilities: Current Liabilities % of Total Assets Accounts Payable $57, Short Term Debt $1, TOTAL Current Liab. $58, Long Term Debt $74, Other Liabilities $15, Total Liabilities $147, Owner s Equity Common Stock $189, Retained Earnings $60, Goodwill $30, Other Assets $14, Total Assets $397, Total OE $250, Total Liab. And OE $397,

37 Additional Problems with Answers Problem 4 Compute and analyze financial ratios. Using the 2009 income statement and balance sheet of Trimark Products Inc., as constructed in problems 1 and 2 above, compute its financial ratios. How is the firm doing relative to its industry in the areas of liquidity, asset management, leverage, and profitability? 37

38 Additional Problems with Answers Problem 4 (continued) Industry Ratio Average Current Ratio Quick Ratio (or Acid Test Ratio) Cash Ratio Debt Ratio Cash Coverage Day s Sales in Receivables Total Asset Turnover Inventory Turnover Day s Sales in Inventory Receivables Turnover Profit Margin Return on Assets Return on Equity

39 Additional Problems with Answers Problem 4 (Answer) Industry Trimark Average Current Ratio Quick Ratio (or Acid Ratio Test) Cash Ratio Debt Ratio Cash Coverage Day s Sales in Receivables Total Asset Turnover Inventory Turnover Day s Sales in Inventory Receivables Turnover Profit Margin Return on Assets Return on Equity

40 Additional Problems with Answers Problem 4 (Answer) (continued) Analysis: Liquidity: Trimark s liquidity ratios are below the industry average indicating that they might need to look into their management of current assets and liabilities. Leverage: Trimark s debt ratio is much lower than the industry average and its cash coverage is more than 3 time the average, indicating that if it needs to borrow longterm debt it should not have much of a problem. Asset management: Trimark s asset turnover ratios are all below the average. It needs to tighten up collections, and manage its inventory more efficiently. Profitability: Trimark has a good control on cost of goods sold. Its net profit margin is better than the industry and so is its ROA. The industry, however, is returning a higher rate to the shareholders on average, primarily due to the higher debt levels. 40

41 Additional Problems with Answers Problem 5 DuPont Analysis. Based on the ratios calculated in problem 4 above, and in conjunction with the industry averages given, conduct a DuPont analysis on Trimark s key profitability ratios. 41

42 Additional Problems with Answers Problem 5 (Answer) According to the Du Pont breakdown, we have ROE = Net Profit Margin * Total Asset Turnover * Equity Multiplier ROE = NI/S * S/TA * TA/Equity Note: since we don t have the accounting information for the average, we have to figure out the industry s equity multiplier by some algebraic manipulation. Equity Multiplier = Total Assets/Equity Now, debt ratio = Total Debt/Total Assets Total Assets = Total Debt + Equity (Total Debt/Total Assets) +( Equity/Total assets) = 1 Equity/Total Assets = 1 (Total Debt/Total Assets) TA/E = 1/(1-TD/TA) 42

43 Additional Problems with Answers Problem 5 (Answer) (continued) Trimark Industry Debt Ratio Total Asset Turnover Profit Margin Return on Assets Return on Equity Equity multiplier = 1/(1-debt ratio) Despite a lower Total Asset Turnover ratio, Trimark s ROA (12.8%) is better than that of the industry (12.6%), primarily due to its higher net profit margin. The industry, however, has a higher ROE (22.1%) due to its higher debt ratio and correspondingly higher equity multiplier. 43

44 Figure 14.1 Cogswell Cola Balance Sheet 44

45 Figure 14.2 Cogswell Cola Income Statement 45