UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference. March 2015

Transcription

1 UBS Mid Cap Oil & Gas Conference March 2015

2 Contents Introduction Group Overview Strategy update Industry & market developments Strategic business units (SBUs) Appendix 1

3 Complex refining asset base and leading domestic market share; Group benefits from refining industry upturn and Greek market stabilisation Group operational footprint ROMANIA BOSNIA SERBIA BULGARIA MONTENEGRO FYROM ALBANIA GREECE TURKEY Complex refineries (Nelson index 9.6) Balanced sales channel mix with exports at 50% of total sales Leading domestic market position with c.60-65% of wholesale and c.30% of retail Refining Marketing Power & Gas Nelson/Solomon complexity benchmark margins CYPRUS Regional footprint with international subsidiaries Completed extensive restructuring plan with > 300m of recurring cash benefits realised to date and c m of further upside 4* 5* -3* 30% of capital employed in non-refining margin driven returns (Marketing, Petchems, Power and NatGas) Aspropyrgos NCI Elefsina Solomon Thessaloniki *$/bbl, average

4 Shareholding & Governance Controlling shareholders agreement supported long-term strategy and successful transition from state to private sector Corporate Governance Shareholding structure Board of Directors: Consists of 13 members (3 executive and 10 non executive) appointed as per Articles of Association Board Committees (Finance / Audit / HR) Retail Int l institutionals 7% 6% GR institutionals 8% 43% POIH Executive Committee: Key management executives with responsibility for strategy and operations 36% Management structure: Greek State SBU structure ensures focus on key business issues Regional portfolio controlled centrally Experienced with proven track record in transformation 3

5 Assets overview Core business around downstream assets with activities across the energy value chain DESCRIPTION METRICS Exploration & Production Exploration assets in Greece, Montenegro Refining, Supply & Trading Domestic Marketing Complex (recently upgraded) refining system: Aspropyrgos (FCC, 148kbpd) Elefsina (HDC, 100kbpd) Thessaloniki (HS, 93kbpd) Pipeline fed refinery/terminal in FYROM Leading position in all market channels (Retail, Commercial, Aviation, Bunkering) through EKO and HF (BP branded network) Capacity: 16MT NCI: 9.6 Market share: 65% Tankage: 7m M 3 c.1,700 petrol stations 30% market share Sales volumes: 3MT International Marketing Strong position in Cyprus, Montenegro, Serbia, Bulgaria Advantage on supply chain/vertical integration c.260petrol stations Sales volumes: 1MT Petrochemicals Basel technology PP production (integrated with refining) and trading > 60% exports in the Med basin Capacity (PP): 220 kt Power & Gas ELPEDISON: Second largest IPP in Greece (JV with Edison/EdF) DEPA/DESFA GROUP: 35% in Greece s incumbent NatGas supply company (under privatisation) Capacity: 810 MW (CCGT) Volumes (2014): 3.0bcm 4

6 Our Group in numbers key financials million, IFRS Income Statement Sales Volume (MT 000) - Refining 15,885 14,502 12,528 12,796 12,696 13,538 Net Sales 7,424 8,477 9,308 10,469 9,674 9,478 Segmental EBITDA - Refining, Supply & Trading Petrochemicals Marketing Other (incl. E&P) Adjusted EBITDA * Adjusted associates share of profit Adjusted Net Income * Balance Sheet / Cash Flow Capital Employed 3,927 4,191 4,217 4,350 3,905 2,870 Net Debt 1,419 1,659 1,687 1,855 1,689 1,140 Capital Expenditure (incl. refinery upgrades) (*) Calculated as Reported less the Inventory effects and other non-operating items 5

7 Contents Introduction Group Overview Strategy update Industry & market developments Strategic business units (SBUs) Appendix 6

8 Strategy Update Refocuses on operational excellence; maximise cash flows to deleverage BUSINESS TARGETS FINANCIAL TARGETS 1 Realise full benefit of the new investment 1 Deliver improved profitability 2 Consolidate regional and domestic market position on new refining asset base 2 Deleverage Group on the back of incremental cashflows and asset disposals 3 Continue competitiveness improvement 3 Diversify funding profile and reduce costs 4 Leverage business portfolio 5 Develop our people and continue to build culture of excellence 4 Manage for value focusing on stakeholders return 7

9 Operational improvements rebased profitability; together with capex normalisation redefine cash flow profile; refining macro provides positive outlook Adjusted EBITDA projected evolution ( m) FCC margin ($2.4/ bbl) FCC margin ($3.4/ bbl) Medium term performance driven by refining margins Does not include contribution from Associates FY13 Operations (Elefsina, competiteveness, sales volumes) Margins FY14 Performance FX* Margins* Medium Term Capex evolution ( m) Cash Flow profile pro-forma** ( m) ( ) Stay in business capex P EBITDA Capex Pre Tax Free Cash Flow (*) $1/bbl sensitivity in margins results to 80m, assuming planned utilisation of refineries and /$ at 1.2 (**) Assuming ΔWC=0 8

10 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% Elefsina Refinery and new business model Stabilisation of Elefsina operations (>100% utilisation), leads to business model transformation towards exports with significant benefits (risk profile, economics, working capital) European Med refineries Net Cash margins Elefsina Refinery utilisation (%) Elefsina > 100% Source: Wood Mackenzie 2018 Net cash margin projection, Med basin refineries Q412 1H13 2H13 1H14 2H14-4 Refining Sales breakdown (mmt ) Group Gross margin breakdown (%) % 76% 81% 85% % 49% 30 Greek market: contribution None Low High Exports Domestic sales Utilisation rate** Refining Domestic Aviation & market* Bunkering* Int l* PetChems Exports Total (*) Includes both trading & marketing (**) Note on utilisation rate: H12 Elefsina Refinery was not operating due to its upgrade project 9

11 COMPETITIVENESS IMPROVEMENTS 89m incremental benefits in 2014; positive impact evident in a number of KPIs, as well as international benchmarking ELPE positioning in Solomon benchmarking* Group Headcount -36% BEST80 savings (% over spent) COMO network sales share - Domestic Marketing 3x (*) Global benchmarking study conducted on a bi-annual basis; results displayed for C&S Europe (31 refineries) 10

12 Capital structure Emphasis throughout 2014 on liquidity risk management vs funding cost; full utilisation of credit facilities and max cash balance preservation through working capital management Gross Debt ( bn) FY14 Gross debt by source DCM Total: 3.0bn EIB 11% 21% Banks (committed) DCM 38% 30% Banks (uncommitted) Cash ( bn) FY14 Maturity Profile DCM : c. 400m Cashflow & ΔWC DCM

13 Contents Introduction Group Overview Strategy update Industry & market developments Strategic business units (SBUs) Appendix 12

14 Recent Industry developments Recent improvement in European refining environment driven by regional crude supply and global demand dynamics European refining margins benefited from improved Atlantic basin crude supply conditions (production growth in US, as well as Iraq) Higher gasoline demand in US and emerging markets; diesel demand growth positive (IMO & Asian markets) Challenges from regional overcapacity and additional product flows from Middle East remain Weak crude prices and stronger USD positive for refiners, despite one-off inventory impact Med complex margins - $/bbl ( ) 8 Hydrocracking FCC Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15* 3.4 (*) Data updated as of 1 st March 2015 Med FCC margins: $/bbl 13

15 Domestic market environment First year of growth in fuels demand post Greek crisis, driven by heating GO recovery as well as auto fuels consumption in 2H Domestic Market demand* (MT 000) +7% -3% -1% +3% 1,860 1,982 1,645 1,588 1,512 1,5021,580 1,625 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 11, LPG & Others 1,159 10,125-42% HGO ADO 3,353 2, ,932 2,518 9, ,883 2,224 7, ,983 2,066 1% 6,599 6, ,248 2,375 +9% +5% +6% MOGAS 4,064 3,722 3,355 2,913 2,670 2,530-5% (*) Does not include PPC and armed forces Source: Ministry of Production Restructuring, Environment and Energy 14

16 Contents Introduction - Group overview Strategy update Industry & market developments Strategic Business Units (SBUs) Appendix 15

17 Greek petroleum market overview and route to market Leading domestic market position through vertical integration and competitive logistics assets; well positioned to capture Greek recovery 16MT Greek Refining capacity: 25MT ELPE exports: 6-8MT 60-65% 25-30% 3 rd party Imports Domestic market: 11.5MT 3 rd party exports: 5MT ELPE Group subsidiaries: 1-2MT ELPE Group subsidiaries: 3MT (30%) Independent marketing companies: 5MT (40%) Specialty markets (PPC, public sector): 1.5MT (10%) MOH Group subsidiaries: 2MT (20%) 0-10% Greek market product breakdown Other Fuel Oil 8% 10% 22% Gasoline Bunkers 21% Jet 9% 8% Gasoil 21% Diesel Retail C&I (Construction, wholesale) Aviation & Bunkering 16

18 Greek Refining, Supply & Trading economics Trading activity in domestic and international markets complements refining returns; export sales accounting for 50% of total Refining (Med benchmark returns & operations performance) Markets (sales premia varying across channels) $ 89% Elefsina NCI kbpd HDC Aspropyrgos NCI kbpd FCC 8% 25% 55% Refined Products (14.0m MT) $ Domestic market Aviation & Bunkering (Med competitive pricing) 5.0 MT 2.5 MT $ / 11% High sulphur Low sulphur Thessaloniki NCI kbpd Hydroskimming 12% Other Gasoline Middle Distillates Fuel Oil Exports, Intra-Group (Platts Med FOB based + premia) Total ELPE capacity 16 MT 2.0 MT MT Imported Products ( m MT) Exports, 3 rd parties (Platts Med FOB based) 5.5 MT 17

19 Marketing Leading position in the Greek market with EKO and BP brands; subsidiaries in neighboring markets increase downstream integration; selective expansion to increase network control Auto-fuels domestic market share evolution (%) 30 International Marketing: Regional footprint (EKO only) 2012 (post BP acquisition) Domestic Retail network evolution (# PS) 2,345 1,170 2,186 1,108 2, , , , International Marketing: Sales volumes evolution (MT) 1,051 1,072 1,072 1,079 1,014 1, ,175 1,078 1, EKO HF JPK SER BU CY 18

20 Petrochemicals Operations centred on vertical integration for higher value product; trading geared to exports markets Position: Competitive advantage in polypropylene - vertical integration exceeding 85% of total production Exports account for >60% of total sales; strong export markets in Turkey, Italy and East Med Domestic market share in petchems exceeds 50% in all products, produced or traded Targets: Increase propylene production capturing propane conversion value Exploit niche markets: Increase PP resin grade portfolio and BOPP film types with tangible cash benefits Add new plastics Leverage regional positioning and in-market presence to increase trading Polypropylene value chain Imports 10% Propylene (refinery grade) Propylene (polymer grade) 90% PP 90% 10% Domestic and international market Propylene splitter Thessaloniki PP plant (220 kt) BOPP film plant (26kt) 19

21 Power: second largest IPP in Greece; development of a renewable energy portfolio Elpedison BV, is a 50/50 JV between Hellenic Petroleum and Edison, Italy s 2 nd largest electricity producer and gas distributor (EdF Group) Owns 75% of 810MW of installed CCGT capacity: a 390MW plant in Thessaloniki and a 420MW in Thisvi Increasing power trading & marketing, considering credit exposure Thisvi 420MW CCGT power plant Energy market in Greece under restructuring; current model targets system stability during a transitional phase Renewables portfolio target > 100MW (wind, PV, biomass) subject to fiscal environment and market developments Consolidated as Associate 20

22 Gas: 35% participation in DEPA, Greece s incumbent gas company (in sale process) DEPA Long-term contracts on pipe gas (Russian & Azeri) and capacity rights on two in-bound interconnecting pipelines Long-term contracts with power generators, eligible industrial customers and existing EPAs Owns 51% of the local supply companies (EPAs), with rights until 2036 DESFA (RAB) Greece s gas grid and LNG import terminal owner and operator International pipelines: Participation in Greece-Bulgaria Interconnector Natural gas transmission network SPA for sale of 66% of DESFA to SOCAR for 400m signed on 21 Dec 2013; regulatory approvals in process for completion of transaction DEPA Volumes (bcm) DEPA snapshot financials ( m) * EBITDA Net Income * Adjusted for settlement with PPC Consolidated as Associate

23 Contents Introduction - Group overview Strategy update Industry & market developments Strategic business units (SBUs) Appendix 22

24 Key Milestones Transforming stand-alone government controlled Greek companies to a leading private sector regional energy player PETROLA (Elefsina ( Refinery) DEP && DEPEKY (Greek E&P) E&P) Listing of new Group in ASE/LSE POIH becomes strategic investor with 25% stake Elpedison: 50/50 JV with Italy s Edison, in Power Elpedison s 2 nd CCGT Plant (420MW) in commercial operation Greek Government announces its intention to divest its shareholding in ELPE Agreement to DESFA sale for 212m Acceleration of transformation programs achieving c.90m of benefits ELDA Aspropyrgos ( Refinery) ESSO - PAPPAS Thessaloniki ( Refinery) Merger with Petrola Hellas Libyan upstream concessions sold to GDF Suez for $170m Acquisition of BP s Ground Fuels business in Greece Sale of 70% stake in W. Obayed upstream concession in Egypt Thessaloniki Refinery upgrade completed Elefsina upgraded refinery start up Float Issue of 500m Eurobond 21% Issue of 325m and $400m Eurobond 43% POIH Shareholding events Greek State 36% 23

25 Regional market Diesel shortage in the Med ELPE middle distillates yield match expected increasing shortage in the region Key DIESEL/GASOIL balances in the Med region, kb/d (2020) Diesel/Gasoil surplus (2020) Diesel/Gasoil deficit (2020) PORTUGAL MED FRANCE -178 SLOVENIA CROATIA ITALY SERBIA BOSNIA MONTENEGRO FYROM -18 SPAIN ALBANIA GIBRALTAR MOROCCO -103 ALGERIA -65 TUNISIA MALTA GREECE +8 TURKEY -195 CYPRUS -16 SYRIA LIBYA +4 EGYPT LEBANON ISRAEL Source: Wood Mackenzie 24

26 Group Key financials: Strong track record of consistent delivery and balance sheet resilience million, IFRS (Published) Income Statement Figures Sales Volume (MT'000) - Refining 15,807 16,525 16,952 17,130 16,997 15,885 14,557 12,528 12,796 12,696 13,538 Sales Volume (MT'000) - Marketing 4,793 4,727 4,790 5,236 4,910 4,787 5,735 5,126 4,434 4,043 4,131 Net Sales 4,907 6,653 8,122 8,538 10,131 6,757 8,477 9,308 10,469 9,674 9,478 EBITDA Adjusted EBITDA* Net Income Adjusted Net Income* Balance Sheet / Cash Flow Items Capital Employed 2,335 2,956 3,442 3,557 3,153 3,927 4,191 4,217 4,350 3,905 2,870 Net Debt , ,419 1,629 1,687 1,855 1,689 1,140 Capital Expenditure Free Cash flow Dividend ( /share) n/a n/a Key drivers Brent crude ($/bbl) FCC cracking Med margins ($/bbl) /$ (*) Calculated as Reported less the Inventory effects and other one-off non-operating items and special income taxes 25

27 4Q14 GROUP KEY FINANCIALS Adj. EBITDA ( m) +280% Q13 Refining sales volume (m MT) +37% 4,0 2,9 4Q13 4Q14 Capex ( m) 4Q14 +22% million, IFRS 4Q FY Δ% Δ% Income Statement Sales Volume (MT) - Refining 2,915 3,981 37% 12,696 13,538 7% Sales Volume (MT) - Marketing 967 1,075 11% 4,043 4,131 2% Net Sales 2,227 2,383 7% 9,674 9,478-2% Segmental EBITDA - Refining, Supply & Trading Petrochemicals % - Marketing % % - Other % % Adjusted EBITDA * Share of operating profit of associates ** % % Adjusted EBIT * (including Associates) Finance costs - net % % Adjusted Net Income * IFRS Reported EBITDA IFRS Reported Net Income % Balance Sheet / Cash Flow Capital Employed 3,905 2,870-26% Net Debt 1,689 1,140-33% Capital Expenditure % % FY13 FY14 (*) Calculated as Reported less the Inventory effects and other non-operating items (**) Includes 35% share of operating profit of DEPA Group 26

28 4Q14 KEY HIGHLIGHTS Record high 4Q results; Adj. EBITDA at 171m ( 45m LY) and Adj. Net Income at 53m (- 35m LY) resulting in a clean EPS of 0.17; All business units reported improved performance; IFRS results affected by inventory impact from crude oil price drop Historical high refining production (4m MT) on the back of improved refining economics and high mechanical availability; exports reached 2m MT as Group s business is now 50% non-greek related Refining operating costs per bbl 30% lower vs LY; competitiveness improvement projects contributed 24m in 4Q14 Controllable cashflow improvement q-o-q, on improved results and normalised capex Enhanced HSE performance, with safety indices improved y-o-y Stronger balance sheet; further improvement of financing terms and reduced cost, despite challenging environment Distribution of 0.21/share approved in December 27

29 INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENT Crude oil price collapse on supply surplus; strongest USD in 8 years favors reporting refiners; sweet-sour differentials affected by crude availability in the region ICE Brent ($/bbl) and EUR/USD Y/E Q FY Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 Brent EURUSD Increased supply, especially for light/sweet grades, led prices to a 5- year low; further drop recorded post Y/E Improved US macro and QE expectations in Europe led to stronger USD Crude differentials ($/bbl) Med sweet-sour spreads wider y-o-y, despite reduced Russian exports Brent WTI spread tighter q-o-q; diesel arbitrage closed for part of 4Q14 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 Brent-WTI Brent - Urals 28

30 INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENT Improved product cracks y-o-y and weak crude prices (affecting energy costs) led recovery of benchmark margins to 2-year highs ULSD Product Cracks* ($/bbl) MOGAS Med benchmark margins ($/bbl) FCC % Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY HSFO Naphtha Hydrocracking % Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY (*) Brent based. A revision of benchmark margins post Elefsina and feed changes is in progress. 29

31 CAUSAL TRACK & SEGMENTAL RESULTS OVERVIEW 4Q 2014 Refining economics confirm strategic rationale for Elefsina upgrade, while operational improvements across all businesses deliver increased profitability Adjusted EBITDA causal track 4Q14 vs 4Q13 ( m) Performance MK Chems Environment 25 8 MK Chems Refining, S&T FX Refining, S&T Other (incl. E&P) -2 Benchmark Supply Elefsina Performance Sales -2 4Q13 Refining improvements Volume 4Q14 Margins Other (incl. E&P) 30

32 CAUSAL TRACK & SEGMENTAL RESULTS OVERVIEW H refinery environment added to operational improvements achieved, leading to a turnaround of Group performance Adjusted EBITDA causal track FY14 vs FY13 ( m) 417 Performance MK 87 Environment 81 Chems MK Refining, S&T Chems 57 Refining, S&T Other (incl. E&P) 57-5 FY13 Benchmark Refining Margins Elefsina Performance improvements Sales Volume Other -7 FY14 Other (incl. E&P) 31

33 CASH FLOW PROFILE Improved performance and normalised Capex generate operating cashflow for deleveraging while business model and improved international supply conditions and liquidity allow more effective working capital management Free Cashflow from Operations (Adj. EBITDA less capex- m) Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 Working Capital Release FY14 vs FY13 ( bn) 1.0 Working Capital KPI*s Price (Inv. & A/R) Volume (incl. CSO) Payment terms FY14 DSO DPO Stock days (incl. CSO) (*) Indicative days for incremental volume (assuming domestic-exports) 32

34 4Q 2014 FINANCIAL RESULTS GROUP PROFIT & LOSS ACCOUNT IFRS FINANCIAL STATEMENTS 4Q FY MILLION Δ % Δ % Sales 2,227 2,383 7% 9,674 9,478 (2%) Cost of sales (2,134) (2,522) (18%) (9,369) (9,334) 0% Gross profit 94 (139) (53%) Selling, distribution and administrative expenses (119) (129) (8%) (448) (440) 2% Exploration expenses (1) (2) - (3) (4) (43%) Other operating (expenses) / income - net* (49) 8 - (50) 11 - Operating profit (loss) (75) (262) - (195) (289) (48%) Finance costs - net (53) (49) 6% (209) (215) (3%) Currency exchange gains /(losses) (1) 1-9 (9) - Share of operating profit of associates** 7 6 (15%) (51%) Profit before income tax (122) (305) - (338) (485) (43%) Income tax expense / (credit) % Profit for the period (98) (228) - (272) (369) (35%) Minority Interest % Net Income (Loss) (98) (227) - (269) (365) (36%) Basic and diluted EPS (in ) (0.32) (0.74) - (0.88) (1.20) (36%) Reported EBITDA (11) (206) - 29 (84) - (*) Includes derecognition of Elefsina project hedges (non recurring) and VRS scheme implemented in 4Q13 (**) Includes 35% share of operating profit of DEPA Group 33

35 4Q 2014 FINANCIAL RESULTS REPORTED VS ADJUSTED EBITDA ( million) 4Q FY Reported EBITDA Inventory effect One-offs Adjusted EBITDA

36 4Q 2014 FINANCIAL RESULTS GROUP BALANCE SHEET IFRS FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FY FY MILLION Non-current assets Tangible and Intangible assets 3,607 3,530 Investments in affiliated companies* Other non-current assets ,470 4,526 Current assets Inventories 1, Trade and other receivables Cash and cash equivalents 960 1,848 2,707 3,194 Total assets 7,177 7,719 Shareholders equity 2,099 1,618 Minority interest Total equity 2,214 1,729 Non- current liabilities Borrowings 1,312 1,812 Other non-current liabilities ,475 1,974 Current liabilities Trade and other payables 2,125 2,739 Borrowings 1,338 1,178 Other current liabilities ,488 4,017 Total liabilities 4,963 5,991 Total equity and liabilities 7,177 7,719 (*) 35% share of DEPA Group book value (consolidated as an associate) 35

37 4Q 2014 FINANCIAL RESULTS GROUP CASH FLOW IFRS FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FY FY MILLION Cash flows from operating activities Cash generated from operations Income and other taxes paid (9) (23) Net cash (used in) / generated from operating activities Cash flows from investing activities Purchase of property, plant and equipment & intangible assets (105) (136) Acquisition of subsidiary (7) - Sale of property, plant and equipment & intangible assets 4 5 Sale of subsidiary - - Grants received Interest received 8 9 Investments in associates - - Dividends received Participation in share capital (increase)/ decrease of associates (3) - Net cash used in investing activities (90) (83) Cash flows from financing activities Interest paid (184) (197) Dividends paid (46) (2) Proceeds from borrowings 1,276 1,112 Repayment of borrowings (1,384) (828) Net cash generated from / (used in ) financing activities (339) 85 Net increase/(decrease) in cash & cash equivalents Cash & cash equivalents at the beginning of the period Exchange gains/(losses) on cash & cash equivalents (6) 34 Net increase/(decrease) in cash & cash equivalents Cash & cash equivalents at end of the period 959 1,848 36

38 4Q 2014 FINANCIAL RESULTS SEGMENTAL ANALYSIS I 4Q FY million, IFRS Δ% Δ% Reported EBITDA Refining, Supply & Trading Marketing % Petrochemicals % Core Business Other (incl. E&P) % % Total Associates (Power & Gas) share attributable to Group % % Adjusted EBITDA (*) Refining, Supply & Trading Marketing % % Petrochemicals % Core Business Other (incl. E&P) % % Total Associates (Power & Gas) share attributable to Group % % Adjusted EBIT (*) Refining, Supply & Trading Marketing Petrochemicals % Core Business Other (incl. E&P) % % Total Associates (Power & Gas) share attributable to Group (adjusted) % % (*) Calculated as Reported less the Inventory effects and other non-operating items 37

39 4Q 2014 FINANCIAL RESULTS SEGMENTAL ANALYSIS II 4Q FY million, IFRS Δ% Δ% Volumes (M/T'000) Refining, Supply & Trading 2,915 3,981 37% 12,696 13,538 7% Marketing 967 1,075 11% 4,043 4,131 2% Petrochemicals % % Total - Core Business 3,954 5,119 29% 17,035 17,905 5% Sales Refining, Supply & Trading 2,060 2,217 8% 9,078 8,818-3% Marketing % 3,345 3,220-4% Petrochemicals % % Core Business 2,925 3,042 4% 12,750 12,361-3% Intersegment & other % -3,076-2,882 6% Total 2,227 2,383 7% 9,674 9,478-2% Capital Employed Refining, Supply & Trading 2,248 1,344-40% Marketing % Petrochemicals % Core Business 3,152 2,165-31% Associates (Power & Gas) % Other (incl. E&P) % Total 3,905 2,870-26% 38

40 Glossary of Key Terms Adjusted EBITDA CCGT FCC HDC HS HSFO IPP Leverage ratio LNG NatGas Nelson Complexity Index (NCI) Pro forma leverage ratio Pro forma leverage on mid cycle historical EBITDA ( avg) Reported EBITDA adjusted by inventory effect (impact of the fluctuation of crude prices on BS inventories and on the value of products sold during the related period) and other one-off non recurring items Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Fluid Catalytic Cracking Hydrocracking Hydroskimming High Sulfur Fuel Oil Independent Power Producer Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA (including associates share of net income) Liquefied Natural Gas Natural Gas An index assessing the refinery conversion capacity by relating each processing unit capacity against the crude distillation capacity and applying weighting factor. Net Debt (excluding debt equal to investment in associates ) / Adjusted EBITDA Net Debt (excluding investment in associates ) / Adjusted EBITDA( avg) POIH PP Solomon Comlexity Index ULSD Paneuropean Oil and Industrial Holdings (POIH) Polypropylene Compares the relative refining configuration apart from throughput capacity. It is the total of EDC (Equivalent Distillation Capacity) divided by the sum of the crude unit stream-day capacities. Ultra-low-sulphur diesel (ULSD) 39

41 Disclaimer Forward looking statements Hellenic Petroleum do not in general publish forecasts regarding their future financial results. The financial forecasts contained in this document are based on a series of assumptions, which are subject to the occurrence of events that can neither be reasonably foreseen by Hellenic Petroleum, nor are within Hellenic Petroleum's control. The said forecasts represent management's estimates, and should be treated as mere estimates. There is no certainty that the actual financial results of Hellenic Petroleum will be in line with the forecasted ones. In particular, the actual results may differ (even materially) from the forecasted ones due to, among other reasons, changes in the financial conditions within Greece, fluctuations in the prices of crude oil and oil products in general, as well as fluctuations in foreign currencies rates, international petrochemicals prices, changes in supply and demand and changes of weather conditions. Consequently, it should be stressed that Hellenic Petroleum do not, and could not reasonably be expected to, provide any representation or guarantee, with respect to the creditworthiness of the forecasts. This presentation also contains certain financial information and key performance indicators which are primarily focused at providing a business perspective and as a consequence may not be presented in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). 40